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Forecasting
Slope of the trend line:
Forecast error: et = Yt - Ft n n n
n tYt t Yt / n
e b1 = t =1 t =1 t =1
t 2
n
n
Mean Forecast Error: MFE = t t / n
t = k +1 2
nk t =1 t =1
n
| e t | Decision Analysis
Mean Absolute Error: MAE = t = k +1
Minimax Regret Approach: Rij V j* Vij
nk
N
Expected Value: EV (d1 ) = P( s j )Vij
n
e 2
t
j =1
Mean Squared Error: MSE = t = k +1
k k
States Prior Conditional Joint Posterior
of Prob- Probabilities Probabilities Probabilities
Y + ... + Yt 1 + Yt
= t k +1 Nature abilities
k
s P(s) P(X|s) = P (X and s) P(s|X) =
Weighted Moving Averages:
Ft +1 = wt Yt + wt 1Yt 1 + ... + wt k +1Yt k +1 P( X and s) = P( X and s)
P( s) P( X )
P(X|s)*P(s)
Exponential Smoothing:
Trend projection:
Ft = b0 + b1t
ba
2
=
2
6
Standard Normal Transformation:
X
Z=
Note: The variance 2 in the project completion
time is the sum of the variances of the critical path
activities and 2 =