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Minings next

performance horizon:
Capturing productivity
gains from innovation
Metals and Mining September 2015

Hugh Durrant-Whyte
Ryan Geraghty
Ferran Pujol
Richard Sellschop
Contents

Minings next performance horizon: Capturing productivity gains from innovation

The productivity imperative 3

An inflection point for the mining industry 4

The next performance horizon 5

Sidebar: How advanced analytics helped a gold mine to step up performance7

Sidebar: How a mine cut maintenance costs and improved equipment availability using advanced analytics9

Sidebar: Mining the unmineable: How digitization is paving the way for a mining company to move far beyond
historical frontiers10

Navigating the journey 11


Minings next performance
horizon: Capturing productivity
gains from innovation
With profits down, miners are focused on improving their productivity.
Digital innovation could provide a breakthrough.

The global mining industry is under pressure. In the The productivity imperative
short term, falling commodity prices are squeezing Our analysis shows that global mining productivity
cash flow. Looking ahead, many existing mines are has declined 3.5 percent a year over the past decade
maturing, resulting in the extraction of lower ore (Exhibit 1). This trend is evident across commodities,
grades and longer haul distances from the mine face; geographies, and most mining companies.
ore-body-replacement rates are in decline; and new-
mine-development times are increasing. On top of While there is debate about the cause of the
this, worldwide mining operations are as much as decline, there is universal agreement that this
28 percent less productive today than a decade ago performance is untenable. As the industry outlook
and thats after adjusting for declining ore grades.1 has deteriorated, most mining companies have
shelved or trimmed expansion plans and refocused
The industry has shifted its focus to improving on doing more with less. The result has been that
productivity by sweating existing assets, but this mining productivity has leveled off and even started
strategy will go only so far. Despite the industrys booms to recover in some locations and commodities.
and busts, the nature of mining has stayed the same
for decades. Achieving a breakthrough on productivity But there remains significant untapped potential for
performance demands rethinking how mining works. productivity improvement. One way to understand
the order of magnitude is to compare mining to
The potential to achieve such a breakthrough is now other industries such as upstream oil and gas,
coming within the industrys reach through digital steel, and oil refining. Based on our benchmarking,
and technology innovations that could transform we observe a global average overall equipment
key aspects of mining. In this article, we describe a effectiveness (OEE) performance of 27 percent
number of digital technologies that have long been for underground mining, 39 percent for open-pit
in the works and are now available and affordable mining, and 69 percent for crushing and grinding
enough to become operational at scale across compared with 88 percent for upstream oil and gas,
the mining industry. Their applications include 90 percent for steel, and 92 percent for oil refining.
building a more comprehensive understanding
of the resource base, optimizing material and Of course, mining differs from other industries
equipment flow, improving anticipation of failures, in many ways. It is highly variable, starting with
increasing mechanization through automation, and uncertainty about the nature of the resource being
monitoring performance in real time. mined. Mining operations often take place in
extreme environments and in far-flung locations.
Alone, each of these opportunities has real potential; Moving operators to the work site (whether by flying
together, they represent a fundamental shift in both them in, moving them underground, or from shaft
potential safety outcomes and how value can be to face) can consume valuable time in itself. And the
captured in the mining sector. We outline these opp- strains and stresses placed upon mining equipment
ortunities and raise several key questions that miners by rocks of unpredictable size and hardness result in
should ask themselves as they navigate the journey. frequent breakdowns.

Minings next performance horizon: Capturing productivity gains from innovation 3


CDP 2015
Mining's next performance horizon: Capturing productivity gains from innovation
Exhibit 1 of 5

Exhibit 1 There has been a global decline in mining productivity over the past decade.

MineLens Productivity Index,


indexed, 2004 = 100

100

95 6.0% 3.5% decline per year


per year
90

85

80 0.4% per year

75

70

0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Source: Company annual reports; McKinsey analysis

But this is exactly the point. Smart planning and enabling communications among machinesis
coordination of activities are required to mitigate increasingly affordable and accessible. Smart
variability caused by external forces; disciplined grids can report power usage across millions
execution is needed to eliminate variability that of homes; sensors on remote deep-sea oil wells
miners create themselves. The path to a step change cause warning signs to flash at the central control
in mining productivity will come through reducing center when problems arise. In 2015, more data
and, where possible, eliminating the variability that are generated every day than existed in total
has made mining unique. through 2003. Miners already produce huge
amounts of sensor data, potentially enabling
An inflection point for the mining industry them to obtain a more accurate and consistent
We believe that the mining industry is at an picture of reality at the rock face than ever.
inflection point, in which digital technologies have
the potential to unlock new ways of managing Analytics and intelligence. Advances in
variability and enhancing productivity. The analytics, from machine learning to improved
large-scale adoption of four different clusters of statistical techniques for integrating data,
technologies is accelerating2: help turn vast data sets into insight about the
probability of future events. Telecommunication
Data, computational power, and companies, for example, use smart algorithms to
connectivity. Embedding vast numbers predict customer churn; retailers employ them
of sensors in physical objectschurning to aim offers at customers. Complex mining
out large volumes of data for analysis and tasks such as geological modeling, on-the-day

4 Minings next performance horizon: Capturing productivity gains from innovation


scheduling, and predictive maintenance are The next performance horizon
increasingly in the domain of smart statistical Our view is that the greatest impact will
and optimization algorithms. come from embedding these technologies as
an integrated whole across the mining value
Humanmachine interaction. Consumer chain. We see five areas of significant value
smartphones and other mobile devices have creation (Exhibit 2):
transformed the way that people interact not
only with one another but also with machines. Deeper understanding of the resource
Consumers rely on their smartphones base. Few questions excite mining executives
for driving directions, booking taxis, and as much as this one: What if you knew exactly
monitoring their health; applications are also what was in the ground and where? The journey
spreading rapidly in the industrial field. One of developing resource insight from exploration
example is smart glasses or goggles that feed to short-term mine planning is often scattered
instructions to workers working on an assembly across organizational boundaries, data sources,
line or to a worker carrying out repairs on and different geological models. Today, miners
equipment, improving operating disciplines. can gain much better resource knowledge by
Another is work clothing that incorporates combining ore-body model information with
sensors transmitting data to managers blast-hole drill data and online sampling.
about hazardous conditions and the physical Statistical techniques to make sense of
condition of the workers themselves, improving exploration data have the potential to improve
safety outcomes. the probability of discovery and help target
further drilling to maximize information gains.
Digital-to-physical conversion. Advances The integration of geological information into
in robotics are making equipment that is fully one better, universal source of truth helps
autonomous more affordable and effective. optimize drill and blast patterns, create an
In manufacturing, the cost of industrial robots executable mine plan, and avoid quality issues
has fallen by 50 percent since 1990, while at the source. With these enhancements,
US labor costs have risen 80 percent over traditional activities such as core logging, face
the same period. Meanwhile technological inspections, and manual plant assays will no
advances in areas such as artificial intelligence longer be required (Exhibit 3).
are increasing the sophistication of robotics
and expanding their productive applications.3 Optimization of material and equipment
In mining, the use of teleremote and assisted- f low. In essence, mining supply chains are
control equipment is becoming common, interdependent systems of multiple pieces
and deployment of fully autonomous of fixed and mobile equipment. Tools and
equipment is taking hold in haulage, metrics such as OEE are a sound basis for
drilling, and other processes. operational improvement but fail to grasp
system complexity. Real-time data and better
Taken together, these technologies enable a analytical engines are making possible the
fundamental shift in the way mining worksa shift scheduling and processing decisions that
marked both by harnessing the flow of information maximize utilization of equipment and
to reduce variability in decision making and by yields. One example is in the mine pit, where
deploying more centralized, mechanized operations combining traditional dispatch with smart
to reduce variability in execution. algorithms can optimize machine movements

Minings next performance horizon: Capturing productivity gains from innovation 5


CDP 2015
Mining's next performance horizon: Capturing productivity gains from innovation
Exhibit 2 of 5

Exhibit 2 Five areas of digitization exist for significant value creation.

Better Deep understanding Optimization of material Improved anticipation


decisions of the resource base and equipment flow of failures

Integrated Optimized mine and Targeted


mine-operating logistics scheduling maintenance
picture strategies
Optimized yield
Optimized drill Predictive

Continuous improvement
and blast maintenance
Optimized pit to port
Continuous learning

Safer, Increased mechanization through automation


more consistent
operations
Automated drills Automated mobile fleet Automated plant
CDP 2015
Mining's next performance horizon: Capturing productivity gains from innovation
Exhibit 3 of 5
Monitoring of real-time performance vs plan

Remote operating centers Enhanced performance management

Exhibit 3 Significant potential comes from better understanding the resource base.

Fused model New digital techniques Typical process


today

Core logging Traditional processes Digitized mining


eliminated by digitization process
Uncertainty
Exploration model
Greater
uncer- Resource drilling
tainty Core logging
Face inspections Truck loading Resource model
Blast
Final Integrated model
Plant assay
geological
model Automated surveying

Rock recognition

Real-time assay
Optimized blast
Stockpile model Stockpile
Automated
Automated face Automated haul surveying
inspection trucks
Reduced
uncertainty Ore in ground Ore out of ground

5 years 2 years 13 weeks Log time

Source: Rise of the machines, Hugh Durrant-Whyte, Maurice Lubbock Memorial Lecture, Oxford University, Oxford, United Kingdom, May 14, 2015.

6 Minings next performance horizon: Capturing productivity gains from innovation


for maximum efficiency. Another is in Improved anticipation of failures. Mining
processing plants, where our work suggests companies typically collect huge amounts of
that many plant operators have blind spots in data from drills, trucks, processing plants,
understanding the drivers of yield. By applying and trains. Yet rarely is this information used
new mathematical techniques that look for to generate insight; in some cases, miners use
hidden relationships between second- and less than 1 percent of the information collected
third-order variables, we have found that plant from their equipment (Exhibit 4). Deploying
yields of gold, nickel, phosphate, and other this information to estimate the probability
processed minerals can often be improved by of failure of specific componentsrather than
3 to 10 percent within months (see sidebar using a traditional time-based approachhelps
How advanced analytics helped a gold mine reduce maintenance spending and prevent
to step up performance). unplanned interruptions that cost metric tons

How advanced analytics helped a gold mine to


step up performance
A gold mine was under severe pressure because and indicated where there were opportunities to
the gold grade of the ore body it was mining had improve to optimal levels. The process parameters
fallen by around 20 percent. The mine had increased of the extraction plant were then examined in depth,
ore-production volumes to try to offset the decline, looking at an exhaustive range of variables from
but it was running into difficulties because this was ore-particle density to flow rates and chemical use,
overloading its leaching plant and incurring higher to model the optimal theoretical conditions. The
costs on energy, chemicals, and other major input examination identified the variability in levels of
costs. Taking an advanced-analytics approach dissolved oxygen in the leaching process as the most
enabled the mine to improve gold output in a important driver of yield, a finding validated by tests.
different way: it optimized its leaching extraction The mine made some small changes to increase the
process based on extensive data analyses and flow of oxygen, which, as predicted, generated a
boosted its average yield by 3 to 4 percent within significant yield gain. The increase in yield translated
three months. into a sustainable $10 million to $20 million annual
profit improvement, with no need for substantial
The first step brought together all the mines extensive capital outlays or reorganizations.
but underused production and process datanot
just from its operating and resource-planning Across the industry, comparable application of
systems but also from the laptops of operators advanced-analytics approaches to drive yield
and managementand deployed mathematical- improvements for commodities with similarly
modeling approaches to reconcile inconsistencies complex ore-processing operations, such as copper,
and data gaps. The advanced-analytics approach nickel, phosphate, and platinum, could translate to
applied in this case was a neural-network model roughly $20 billion to $50 billion per year of additional
that simulated the plant performance precisely earnings before interest, tax, and depreciation.

Minings next performance horizon: Capturing productivity gains from innovation 7


CDP 2015
Mining's next performance horizon: Capturing productivity gains from innovation
Exhibit 4 of 5

Exhibit 4 Mining companies use only a fraction of their data.

<1%
Data Infra- Data Analytics and Visual-
capture structure manage- automation ization
ment
Execution

Operational
information
Data not used
Data not in decision
Data not communi- making
Data not analyzed cated
Data not accessible
Failure Data not streamed
points captured or stored

(see sidebar How a mine cut maintenance costs Monitoring of real-time performance
and improved equipment availability using versus plan. One benefit of real-time data
advanced analytics). is knowing the state and location of every
piece of equipment in a mining operation at
Increased mechanization through every secondand, in particular, whether it is
automation. Automation offers the potential operating according to or outside of the plan.
to reduce operating costs, improve operating This real-time insight gives new meaning to
discipline, and take people out of harms operations performance management, taking the
way. Some technologies, notably automated conversation from one about monthly output to
haulage and drilling, have moved into full- one that focuses on variability and compliance
scale commercialization, while others, to plan. Furthermore, connecting this real-time
particularly automated blasting and shoveling, feed to a central operating center not only makes
are in testing. Our analysis suggests that the possible a real-time response but also moves
economics of haulage are soundreducing control to a more sophisticated decision-making
total cost of ownership by between 15 and capability at the center that can take actions to
40 percent, depending on the cost of labor optimize operations across the whole supply
although miners must manage several design chain, rather than local silos. This capability can
choices around pit configuration, equipment be deployed both to improve safety outcomes by
configuration, and operational transitions. detecting deviations from expected operating
Furthermore, our work on developing conditions and to maintain high equipment
automated mining operations has identified utilization and low operating cost consistent
opportunities to reduce the number of people with operating plans.
working in areas considered most dangerous
by more than 50 percent (see sidebar Mining Each opportunity is significant in itself, but
the unmineable: How digitization is paving achieving the full potential of all opportunities is
the way for a mining company to move far possible only if they are pursued in an integrated
beyond historical frontiers). fashion. We see three reasons for this.

8 Minings next performance horizon: Capturing productivity gains from innovation


How a mine cut maintenance costs and improved
equipment availability using advanced analytics
A large North American open-pit mine applied timing variances that appeared after trucks
an advanced analyticsbased approach to how hit a particular revolutions-per-minute level
it maintained its hauling trucks, and within six were an indicator of imminent transmission
months captured 12 percent savings in labor, failure, and so truck-maintenance strategy
services, and spare parts and improved availability was modified accordingly.
by 5 percent.
Second, the use of clustering algorithms made
How did the mine achieve this? Historically, the it possible to more accurately identify the cause
mine had been achieving an average maintenance of equipment failures. Using this approach, the
performance, running a maintenance schedule mine learned that a particular portion of the truck
based on the OEMs recommendations and fleet was suffering more failuresand that all the
on simple metrics such as MTBF, or mean trucks in that portion were being used in a part of
time between failure. But it was still running the mine that had very rough roads. The mine was
into equipment failures that caused shortfalls able to improve the roads quickly, eliminating this
on production targets and incurred expensive cause of failure.
overtime charges from the maintenance teams,
while at the same time falling commodity prices The mine is now working on automatically
were forcing cuts in the mines operating budget. incorporating inputs generated by advanced
analytics into its maintenance processes. If
By applying advanced-analytics techniques, part of the truck fleet is undergoing greater
the mine was able to transform its maintenance stressfor example, carrying heavier loads,
approach through two initiatives, both based with more stops and startsthe maintenance-
on analysis of the large quantities of data already management system will be alerted, leading to
being gathered but not being used. First, using an increase in maintenance frequency for those
predictive models of failure made possible by trucks, which in turn will trigger the scheduling of
more targeted and effective maintenance, required maintenance crews and the ordering of
examination of the data showed that gearshift- replacement parts.

First, the physical technology required for Second, in time, these decisions will be fed back to
automation provides the real-time flow of autonomous machines, not to human operators.
information that forms the foundation for The real value of completing this loop will be in
better insights. Investments in automation the learning it providesconsistently recorded
are best done alongside investments in systems decisions and actions that, working with machine
and tools that build a foundation for better learning algorithms, will be continuously refined to
decision making. get better with every iteration.

Minings next performance horizon: Capturing productivity gains from innovation 9


Mining the unmineable: How digitization is paving the
way for a mining company to move far beyond historical
frontiers
One miner is already assembling the capabilities Deployment of robots down the mine that can
of mining digitization to enable it to push forward assay the mine face using remote-controlled
the frontiers of what is economically and safely laser-scanned point clouds to inform the control
mineable. This miner faced the need to open module on the mine surface can cause a step
the next level of its copper deposit situated change in productivity. The 3-D modeling data
deep below existing workings, which are already these robots provide to the control module on the
more than 800 meters below the surface. surface can inform the real-time mine-planning
The combination of the depth of the workings, and reconciliation approaches used for the mines
low copper prices, and a steep increase in development, and also avoid the dangers and
mining costs made further development delays of sending geologists to the just-blasted
completely unfeasible using traditional mine face. These equipment deployments, in
mining approaches. combination with advanced navigation systems
and the use of X-ray-fluorescence and X-ray-
But by deploying a complete suite of digitized diffraction scanners, can help to ensure that the
mining approaches, the miner is on the way mining will remain targeted on the richest part of
to turning the economics around. Use of the copper veins, increasing mined-ore quality.
automated continuous-mining techniques
will make it possible to substantially increase This ensemble of approaches is projected to
labor productivity and to work in conditions increase the productivity of the mine by as much
that humans would not be able to tolerate as 30 percent and help to capture important
due to heat and the risk of rock-face collapse. gains in safety performance. The mine is
Application of advanced analytics should make following an aggressive timetable to achieve
it possible to maintain the mining equipment at full implementation by 2025, at which point the
a far superior level, reducing breakdowns and mines operating costs have the potential to be as
increasing overall equipment-effectiveness much as 30 percent below those of a traditionally
performance by more than 25 percent. operated deep-underground copper mine.

Lastly, once part of the system exists on a become valuable data in and of themselves; and
digitized platform, there are real benefits, or the broader the scope of the decision-making
network effects, to extending it across the supply algorithms, the more they reflect the best whole-
chain. The more data that are accessible to of-business outcomes for the operation.
decision-making algorithms, the more effective
they become; the more operational activities A fully integrated and automated mining supply
are systematized and recorded, the more they chain may not be universally realized in the near

10 Minings next performance horizon: Capturing productivity gains from innovation


future, but it is more than mining science fiction operating model, and capabilities in the mining
it is the logical end point in a series of technology industry. In particular, much of the value creation in
deployments that mining companies have already mining will shift from how well the operation moves
initiated. And it is the outcome that moves the material to how well it collects, analyzes, and acts
mining industry closest to reducing and better on information to move material more productively.
managing uncertainty and leads to needed safety This will be a difficult change, and it will only
and productivity gains. Thus, we see it as a natural succeed if industry leadership believes there is a
destination;
CDP 2015 the question is how long it will take to big prize at the end of it. Our analysis indicates that
get there and
Minings to navigate
next the journey
performance successfully.
horizon: Capturing the opportunity
productivity is indeed
gains from sizablewith
innovationa potential
Exhibit 5 of 5 economic impact of about $370 billion per year
Navigating the journey worldwide in 2025 (Exhibit 5). This would amount to
Capturing the value from digital innovations 17 percent of the projected cost base of the industry
represents a fundamental shift in vision, strategy, globally in 2025.

Exhibit 5 The value at stake for the mining industry is sizable.

McKinsey Global Institute estimates1 Focus of the paper

Applications Description Potential economic impact of


sized2 applications in 2025, $ billion, annually

Deeper understanding of the resource base


Operations Optimization of material and equipment flow 250
management Increase in mechanization through automation
Monitoring of real-time performance vs plan

Improved anticipation of failures


Equipment Reduced unscheduled breakdowns 100
maintenance Longer equipment life

Health and Minimized exposure to dangerous conditions 10


safety

Improved purchasing analytics


Equipment Internet of Thingsenabled R&D into cost- 5
supply efficient equipment design

Human
Augmented reality (built on better human-
machine interaction) 5
productivity Task-based activity monitoring

Total 370

1Estimates based on high-adoption-rates case (80% in operations management and 100% in equipment maintenance).
2Sized applications are those applications for which the economic value has been analyzed.
Source: McKinsey Global Institute

Minings next performance horizon: Capturing productivity gains from innovation 11


The key to unlocking this value will be to see Changes are needed in processes and people
innovation as an undertaking that encompasses to most effectively implement technology and
all aspects of the business, rather than a technology the new ways of working that it makes possible.
effort. In truth, most of the technology challenge Successful miners will set an integrated
has been solved. This makes capturing the vision from data to systems to core processes
opportunity a management challenge for the next to people capabilities, recognizing that new
generation of industry leaders. We see a number technologies only create value if they change
of factors that will drive success: the way people work and make decisions.

Is technology seen as an end in itself, or How well does management do at


is this effort firmly grounded in value the start, balancing wins over 12 to
creation? Miners must resist the temptation to 18 months to build momentum with
pursue intelligence at the expense of value. It is a longer-term vision of where the
difficult to set up a department that can integrate company is headed? The concept of two-
business problems and the practical application speed innovationan agile approach to going
of technologies. The key to doing so is to have after the most accessible big-ticket items,
cross-functional teams that understand both combined with a more measured approach to
mining operations and the technologies, and to changing core systems and architecturesis
integrate new technologies into operations and now commonplace. The approach to applying
measure their impact. new technologies in mining must follow the
same principle. A priority is placed on achieving
Is technology seen as the next wins in the near term to show value and build
generation of bigger and better gear, the capabilities necessary to extract value from
or a more fundamental shift in the technology. At the same time, the legacy control
operating model? Approaching technology systems, IT systems, and data architecture of
as the next generation of gear to reduce direct many mining companies need a comprehensive
head count could lead to missed opportunities transformation to support deployment of the
to integrate real-time data with decision new technology at scale. Successful players
making. The task of integrating data into will find ways to do both.
decision making across central planning
and local sites, and across the full breadth of How well does the organization adapt
operations from pit to port, is making miners to the new set of opportunities? At many
more akin to system engineers than movers mining companies, there is often no executive
of dirt. Mining companies must be able to designated as the clear owner of innovation.
get the systems-integration skill set right to Furthermore, going after this opportunity
maximize value creation. with the existing capability set or by using
the current scorecards, metrics, and budgets
How effectively are the people changes will likely result only in a continuation
managed, both the shift in culture and of the status quo. To make these changes
the change in capability mix required happen, mining companies must adapt
to deploy new technologies? From their organizations by creating clear
our work on big data across industries, ownership among the top executive team,
we know that technologydata, analytics, refining the organizational design to create
and systemsis only part of the answer. meaningful senior roles for people with

12 Minings next performance horizon: Capturing productivity gains from innovation


technical skills, and redesigning the annual 1
For more information on McKinseys perspective on mining
planning and performance-management productivity, see Ajay Lala, Mukani Moyo, Stefan Rehbach,
and Richard Sellschop, Productivity in mining operations:
process to create space for innovation.
Reversing the downward trend, May 2015, mckinsey.com.
2
For more information on McKinseys perspective on these
disruptive technologies and Industry 4.0 in manufacturing, see
Matthias Breunig, Jamie Cattell, Richard Kelly, and Dominik
Mining has always been marked by uncertainty Wee, Industry 4.0: How to navigate digitization of the
manufacturing sector, McKinsey & Company, 2015.
and variability, from the resources in the ground
3
For more information, see Mehdi Miremadi, Subu Narayanan,
to the stress on equipment to the weather. These
Richard Sellschop, and Jonathan Tilley, The age of smart,
dynamics are core to the industrys operational safe, cheap robots is already here, Harvard Business Review,
performance. The key to the next era in mining June 2015, hbr.org.
is recognizing that this situation is no longer
inevitablethat, with the right investments, The authors wish to thank Dan Aharon, Michael Chui,
miners have the opportunity to reduce and, in Vasanth Ganesan, Andrew Gonce, Stephan Grner,
some cases, eliminate the uncertainty. Over Sigurd Mareels, Agesan Rajagopaul, Dawid Rychlik, and
time, mining work will evolve toward knowledge- Jason Zheng for their contributions to this article.
based jobs that solve the same challenges as Ryan Geraghty is an associate principal in McKinseys
today but do so through different means. The Sydney office, Ferran Pujol is a consultant in the
mining companies that recognize this shift Santiago office, and Richard Sellschop is a principal in
today and best navigate the changes ahead the Stamford office. Hugh Durrant-Whyte is professor
will be the winners of tomorrow. at the University of Sydney.

Minings next performance horizon: Capturing productivity gains from innovation 13


Metals & Mining Practice

September 2015
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Copyright McKinsey & Company

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