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Computers & Geosciences 32 (2006) 10961107


www.elsevier.com/locate/cageo

Examining the impact of the precision of address geocoding


on estimated density of crime locations
Yutaka Harada, Takahito Shimada
National Research Institute of Police Science (NRIPS), Department of Criminology and Behavioral Sciences, 6-3-1 Kashiwanoha,
Kashiwa, Chiba 277-0882 Japan
Received 18 March 2004; accepted 2 August 2005

Abstract

This study examines the impact of the precision of address geocoding on the estimated density of crime locations in a
large urban area of Japan. The data consist of two separate sets of the same Penal Code offenses known to the police that
occurred during a nine-month period of April 1, 2001 through December 31, 2001 in the central 23 wards of Tokyo. These
two data sets are derived from older and newer recording system of the Tokyo Metropolitan Police Department (TMPD),
which revised its crime reporting system in that year so that more precise location information than the previous years
could be recorded. Each of these data sets was address-geocoded onto a large-scale digital map, using our hierarchical
address-geocoding schema, and was examined how such differences in the precision of address information and the
resulting differences in address-geocoded incidence locations affect the patterns in kernel density maps.
An analysis using 11,096 pairs of incidences of residential burglary (each pair consists of the same incidents geocoded
using older and newer address information, respectively) indicates that the kernel density estimation with a cell size of
25  25 m and a bandwidth of 500 m may work quite well in absorbing the poorer precision of geocoded locations based on
data from older recording system, whereas in several areas where older recording system resulted in very poor precision
level, the inaccuracy of incident locations may produce artifactitious and potentially misleading patterns in kernel density
maps.
r 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Keywords: Crime; Residential burglary; Address geocoding; Kernel density estimation

1. Introduction to such diverse areas as crime prevention studies


(Eck and Weisburd, 1995; Weisburd and McEwen,
Geographic or spatial analyses of crime using 1998), the assistance of criminal investigation
GIS have established its signicance in both (Rossmo, 1999), and Web-based dissemination of
criminological research and criminal justice prac- local crime maps (Chicago Police Department). In
tices (Anselin et al., 2000). Their application extends recent years, their use in analyzing crime patterns
has been viewed as an essential part of the efforts in
Corresponding author. Tel.: +81 4 7135 8001x 2600; law enforcement agencies toward effective and
fax: +81 4 7133 9184.
efcient crime control (Goldsmith et al., 2000; The
E-mail addresses: harada@nrips.go.jp (Y. Harada), Task Force on Crime Mapping and Data-driven
takajin@nrips.go.jp (T. Shimada). Management, 1999).

0098-3004/$ - see front matter r 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.cageo.2006.02.014
ARTICLE IN PRESS
Y. Harada, T. Shimada / Computers & Geosciences 32 (2006) 10961107 1097

A research topic in the geographic analysis of examine the spatial patterns of the incidents with a
crime that has attracted much attention is the point-pattern map, since dots conceal other dots,
identication of crime hot spots, namely the giving a false impression of the true crime density
places or small areas in which disproportionately (McLafferty et al., 2000, p.80). Kernel density
large number of criminal incidents cluster. Identify- estimation correctly takes such overlapping dots
ing crime hot spots has an important practical into account in producing the patterns of offense
implication, because there are accumulating pieces densities.
of evidence that the more law enforcement efforts A related issue has a special relevance with
are focused on high-crime places or high-crime time, Japanese data. Unlike US and many other western
the more effective and efcient they would be in countries, Japanese addresses are not expressed as
controlling crime (Braga, 2001; Sherman and Eck, street addresses, but expressed in the form of
2002). A variety of approaches have been proposed nested polygons. For example, Metropolitan Tokyo
for the identication and representation of crime consists of 23 kus (wards), and each ku consists of
hot spots, ranging from visual examination of point- several (many) chos. Each cho is divided into
pattern maps to highly sophisticated procedures several chomes (usually represented by numbers
such as spatial ellipses (Block, 1995). between 1 and 9). Each chome is divided into more
One of the methods used extensively in these than 10 bans (blocks), which are generally restricted
years in analyzing spatial clustering of offenses is by roads. The smallest unit in the geocoding is gou,
the kernel density estimation (Chainey and Reid, showing buildings, an apartment house, or an
1999; McLafferty et al., 2000). Originally developed independent house. The gure in the Appendix
in the late 1950s as a method to produce a smooth shows chome and cho among these geocoding units.
density distribution from a histogram, this techni- Furthermore, Japanese address formats are not
que was later extended so that a smooth surface can uniform throughout the nation. Rather, there exist
be produced from a point-pattern map (Levine, at least two (or three) different address formats.
2004, Chapter 8: Kernel Density Interpolation). Although each address is expressed in only one of
Kernel density estimation (Fig. 1) has a number of these formats, it is quite common that, even within a
advantages over other methods in searching crime city, an address format is used in some areas, while
hot spots, including its ability of allowing irregular- another format apply in other areas. Such a
shaped hot spots and its suitability for examining situation makes address geocoding a very compli-
changes in those hot spots over time (Anselin et al., cated task in Japan, as described in the Appendix.
2000; McLafferty et al., 2000). Also, Chainey and To cope with this, we have developed our own
Raid (1999) emphasize that kernel density estima- schema of hierarchical address geocoding (Harada
tion provides more statistically robust hot spot et al., 2005; Shimada and Harada, 1997), so that as
maps, compared with other spatial interpolation many addresses can be geocoded as possible,
methods. according to an best-effort principle. This schema,
Another strength of kernel density estimation is however, raises a concern regarding different levels
that it can address problems in geocoding large of precision in address geocoding and may result in
amount of criminal incidents, at least to some artifactitious or misleading patterns in the kernel
extent. As the number of geocoded incidents get estimation of offense densities.
larger, it becomes increasingly difcult to visually Our study aims at obtaining insights into this
issue. An unique opportunity for our analysis was
provided by the Tokyo Metropolitan Police Depart-
ment (hereafter, abbreviated as TMPD) in the year
2001, when the department revised its crime
reporting system so that more precise location
information than the previous years could be
recorded. We obtained two separate data sets
consisting of the same criminal incidents during a
nine-month period of April 1, 2001 through
December 31, 2001, recorded in older and newer
recording system, respectively, and examined
Fig. 1. Kernel density estimation. how such differences in the precision of address
ARTICLE IN PRESS
1098 Y. Harada, T. Shimada / Computers & Geosciences 32 (2006) 10961107

Embezzlement Vandalism
information and the resulting differences in address-
geocoded incidence locations affect the patterns in

11,518
12,268
kernel density maps.

of lost articles
2. Data and methods

12,135
13,755
The data used in this study are derived from two
separate data sets of Penal Code offenses that

code offenses
occurred in the central 23 wards of Tokyo and

Intellectual Moral offenses Other penal


recorded by the TMPD, as shown in Table 1. The

25,889
28,475
rst data set was recorded using the older recording
system and covers the period of calendar year 2001
(namely, from January 1 to December 31). The
second data set was recorded using the newer
recording system and covers the period of Japanese
scal year 2001 (namely, from April 1 to March 31).

1095
1127
In the analyses that follow, we focused on the offenses
that occurred during the 9-month period between

offenses
April 1 and December 31, because these offenses were

2934
3897
recorded in both of the above two data sets.

vending machines
2.1. Comparing geocoded point locations

Residential Theft from Snatching Theft from


Point locations obtained by the newer, gou-level
address geocoding and those obtained by the older,

6618
5857
Penal code offenses in central 23 wards of Tokyo: (Calendar year 2001 and Fiscal Year 2001)

ban-level address geocoding were compared with


each other. The comparison was made with regard
to an offense type called akisu (in Japanese:

4296
4163
residential burglary that is committed while resi-
dents are out of home). We focused on this offense,
because the targets of residential burglaries are
vehicles

20,438
21,597
(residential) houses, to which the most precise
components of Japanese addresses, the gou-num-
bers, are assigned. Therefore, residential burglaries
burglary

can be located more precisely by address geocoding


171,296 13,936
177,469 15,994

than most other offenses when the addresses are


specied at the gou-level. As such, they are most
Felonious Violent Larceny

suited to examine the implications of using less


precise (ban-level) address information in place of
offenses offenses

more precise (gou-level) address information.


5490
6158

The comparison was carried out by the following


procedures

(1) A total of 13,936 akisu incidents that occurred in


Calendar 2001 207,762 1058
218,366 1240

the central 23 wards of Tokyo in the calendar


year 2001 (which was the last year when offenses
Total

were recorded using TMPDs old recording


system) were extracted from our Penal Code
offense database.
Fiscal 2001

(2) A total of 15,994 akisu incidents that occurred in


Table 1

the central 23 wards of Tokyo in the Japanese


Year

scal year 2001 (namely, from April 1, 2001 to


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Y. Harada, T. Shimada / Computers & Geosciences 32 (2006) 10961107 1099

March 31, 2002) were extracted from the newly 1290  1288 cells. Among the rectangular area of
provided Penal Code offense data, which were 1,661,520 (1290  1288) grid cells, 1,008,844 cells
recorded using TMPDs new recording system corresponded to the geographic area of the central
that started operating in April 2001. 23 wards of Tokyo. The remaining 652,676 cells
(3) A total of a one-to-one match of the above two were out of the area of the central 23 wards, and
data sets was performed, using the unique therefore treated as no-data cells.
incident ID number common to both old and The impact of the differences of geocoded
new data sets as the primary key. incident locations on the estimated densities of
(4) A total of the above procedure identied 11,096 incidents were examined by comparing two grid
matching records. These matching records in each surfaces that correspond to the two point maps of
of the two data sets were extracted and mapped incident locations, made from old and new record-
on a large-scale digital map (Digital Map 2500, ing systems of the TMPD. To be more specic, the
published by the Geographical Survey Institute of value of each grid cell estimated from the gou-level
Japan) using our hierarchical address-geocoding incident locations was subtracted from the value of
schema, as two separate layers. corresponding grid cell estimated from the ban-level
(5) In order to measure the distance between the two incident locations, using the raster calculation tool
geocoded locations of the same incident, one of the ArcView 9.0. The distribution of the
based on TMPDs old recording system (which magnitude of the differences was examined in both
allows the precision only up to the ban-level), and statistical and geographical terms.
the other based on their new system (which allows
the precision up to the gou-level), an ArcGIS- 3. Results
VBA program was written and run to create a line
shape connecting the two locations for each of the 3.1. Differences in address-geocoded incident
11,096 akisu incidents. The distance was measured locations
as the length of each line shape, using the
XTools Pro v. 2.2 utilities for ArcGIS (Delaune Fig. 2 shows the distribution of distances between
and Chikinev, 2005). incident locations geocoded at gou-level precision
(hereafter, abbreviated as GLAGC, which stands
2.2. Comparing estimated densities for a Gou-Level Address GeoCoding) and the
locations of the same incidents geocoded at ban-
The grid cell size and the bandwidth for kernel level precision (hereafter, abbreviated as BLAGC,
density estimation were set as 25  25 m and 500 m which stands for a Ban-Level Address GeoCoding).
radius, respectively. A rectangular area that covers The minimum value of these distances is zero, where
the central 23 wards of Tokyo consisted of GLAGC and BLAGC of an incident address results

4042 100
4041
4000 Count
Cum. Pct. 80

3000
60
Cum. Pct.
Count

2000 1787
40

1000 20
506
224
90 56 52 37 49 23 49 24 13 15 25 11 17 15 4 4 5 4 0 2 1
0 0
0 100 200 300 400 500 m
Distances

Fig. 2. Distribution of distances between BLAGC and GLAGC incident locations.


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1100 Y. Harada, T. Shimada / Computers & Geosciences 32 (2006) 10961107

Fig. 3. Geographic distribution of distances between BLAGC and GLAGC incident locations.

in an exactly same location. This does not mean, Fig. 3, location pairs with larger distances, shown as
however, that the geocoded location is in fact longer lines on the map, tend to be concentrated in
accurate. Rather, such an apparent consistency several specic areas. A major reason for this is
typically occurs when GLAGC could not nd a rooted in Japanese tradition of expressing ad-
gou-level address points in our address tables. As dresses. As noted earlier, some areas of Japan
mentioned earlier, our hierarchical address-geocod- maintains older system of expressing addresses,
ing procedure steps back to a next-best precision which does not allow ban-level address geocoding.
level when it fails to nd an address points at the In consequence, when we attempt to geocode
higher level of precision, so that as many addresses addresses at ban-level in those areas, we are forced
can be geocoded as possible, according to an best- to step back further to a cho-level geocoding. This
effort principle. There are seven such cases in our leads to greater discrepancies between the results of
11,096 pairs of geocoded locations. our gou-level geocoding and (attempted) ban-level
As expected, the distances between BLAGC geocoding.
locations and GLAGC locations show a highly Fig. 4 shows how the failure of ban-level
skewed distribution. The maximum value of these geocoding in those areas results in greater distances
distances is 514.6 m, which corresponds to the only between BLAGC locations and GLAGC locations.
case with a distance exceeding 500 m. Fifteen cases, In this gure, an open circle represents the location
or 0.1% of all the 11,096 pairs, show distances of akisu incident geocoded at gou-level, whereas the
between 400 and 500 m, and 72 cases, or 0.6%, show solid circle represents the location of the same
distances between 300 and 400 m. On the other incident, geocoded at ban-level (but in fact with no
hand, 4042 cases, or 36.4%, show distances less more precision than cho-level). It is obvious that, in
than 20 m. The mean distance is 35.6 m. those areas where ban-level geocoding did not
The location pairs with varying distances are not perform well, a single location in (attempted)
distributed evenly in our study area. As shown in ban-level geocoding tends to correspond to many
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Y. Harada, T. Shimada / Computers & Geosciences 32 (2006) 10961107 1101

Fig. 4. Differences in the locations of address-geocoded incidents of akisu (gou-level AGC vs. ban-level AGC): example of areas where
address expressions do not allow ban-level geocoding.

incidents, which are in fact scattered around it. The xed bandwidth of 500 m is used for the kernel
radial line segments running from the solid circle to density estimation. The density value of each grid
a number of surrounding open circles indicate this. cell is measured as the estimated number of
The gure also shows that the number of incidents incidents per square kilometer and is shown with a
that correspond to a single (attempted) ban-level- ve-level gray scale.
geocoded location and the distance between A visual observation of these two maps reveals
BLAGC locations and GLAGC locations are both their overall similarities with each other. The
much greater in these areas than the other areas geographic distribution of areas with higher esti-
where ban-level geocoding performed better. mated incidence densities (e.g. over 80 incidents per
These results suggest that the poor performance square kilometer) appears to be almost identical.
of ban-level address geocoding may produce an Such a resemblance indicates that the kernel density
artifactitious concentration of akisu incidents in estimation with a bandwidth of 500 m may work
those areas. If this is the case, then kernel estimation quite well in absorbing the poorer precision of
of incidence densities based on ban-level address locations given by ban-level address geocoding, as
geocoding may also show misleading results. There- far as the akisu incidents in the central 23 wards of
fore, we examine such possibilities next. Tokyo are concerned.
A closer look, however, reveals that some
3.2. The impact on estimated densities differences do exist between the two density
maps. Fig. 7 shows the differences between the
The results of kernel estimation of the density of two estimated kernel density maps. The value of
akisu, geocoded at ban-level and at gou-level, each grid cell of this map is calculated by subtract-
respectively, are shown in Figs. 5 and 6. Here, the ing the value of a grid cell of estimated density
cell size of the grid surface is set to 25  25 m and a based on gou-level geocoding from the value of
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1102 Y. Harada, T. Shimada / Computers & Geosciences 32 (2006) 10961107

Fig. 5. Distribution of incident densities of akisu (residential burglary)(ban-level AGC).

Fig. 6. Distribution of incident densities of akisu (residential burglary)(gou-level AGC).


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Y. Harada, T. Shimada / Computers & Geosciences 32 (2006) 10961107 1103

Fig. 7. Differences in estimated incident densities of akisu (residential burglary)(gou-level AGC results vs. ban-level AGC results).

corresponding grid cell of estimated density based In Fig. 8, incident densities estimated with ban-
on ban-level geocoding. Thus, the cell values in Fig. level AGC results are overlaid on the point-pair
7 should be close to zero when the estimated density map shown in Fig. 4. Namely, the density of akisu
values for the corresponding two grid cells agree incidents in this gure is estimated using the
with each other, whereas the values should depart geocoded locations denoted by solid circles. Note
from zero when there are greater discrepancies. that a solid circle accompanied with many radial
The raster calculation conrms that an over- lines indicates that there are (at least) as many
whelming majority, namely 986,990 or 97.8%, of all incidents geocoded onto that location with our ban-
the 1,008,844 grid cells fall within the value range level geocoding procedure (which in fact stepped
between 5 and +5. On the other hand, however, back to cho-level precision after it failed to nd
there are a small proportion of grid cells with the appropriate ban-level address points), as the number
value less than 20 (777 cells, or 0.08%), and grid of those radial lines. It is for this reason that high-
cells with the value over +20 (427 cells, or 0.04%). density areas are observed toward the top right-
Again, the geographic distribution of those grid cells hand corner of the gure, despite the fact that
with large absolute values of difference tends to relatively few solid circles exist in those areas. In this
cluster in several specic areas. The comparison sense, kernel density estimation with a bandwidth of
between Figs. 7 and 3 suggest that areas where grid 500 m appears to have worked as expected, since it
cells with large discrepancy values cluster in Fig. 7 has transformed the locations where many incidents
approximately correspond to the areas where a large coincide into a smooth surface of estimated
number of longer lines that represent greater incon- densities of incidents.
sistency in address geocoding are found in Fig. 3. On the other hand, however, Fig. 9 indicates that
Figs. 810 illustrate how differences in geocoded there are limitations. In this gure, the overlaid
incidence locations are related to the differences in density of akisu incidents are estimated with gou-
estimated incidence densities. level AGC results, or the locations denoted by open
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1104 Y. Harada, T. Shimada / Computers & Geosciences 32 (2006) 10961107

Fig. 8. Distribution of incident densities of akisu (residential burglary)(ban-level AGC): example of areas where address expressions do not
allow ban-level geocoding.

circles. A comparison of this gure with Fig. 8 geocoding. It also implies that smoothing with the
reveals that one of the highest density areas toward kernel density estimation (with a bandwidth of
the top right-hand corner in Fig. 8 is no longer seen 500 m) may be insufcient in absorbing the poor
in Fig. 9. This is because incidents denoted by the precision of geocoded locations, in case where
two solid circles in the high-density area that is seen incidents are geocoded only at cho-level precision.
only in Fig. 8 are in fact scattered around those two
solid circles, as denoted by the 18 open circles in 4. Concluding remarks
Fig. 9.
The inconsistency between the above two gures Our analyses using 11,096 pairs of incidences of
can be depicted clearly in a density-difference map residential burglary (each pair consists of the same
shown in Fig. 10. This map reveals that the density- incidents geocoded using older and newer address
difference grid cells tend to have large POSITIVE information, respectively) indicate that the kernel
values near the solid circles (or the locations given density estimation with a cell size of 25  25 m and a
by stepped-back ban-level geocoding), whereas the bandwidth of 500 m may work quite well in
grid cells tend to have large NEGATIVE values absorbing the poorer precision of geocoded loca-
near the open circles (or the locations given by gou- tions based on data from older recording system,
level geocoding). As a result, an irregular pattern of whereas in several areas where older recording
ups and downs in the density-difference grid surface system resulted in very poor precision level, the
is observed in the areas where longer line segments inaccuracy of incident locations may produce
connecting the point-pairs cluster. artifactitious and potentially misleading patterns
The above results suggest that this apparently in kernel density maps.
high-density area in Fig. 8 may be in fact an artifact, It should be noted that the present analysis is
caused by the inaccuracy of our (ban-level) address limited to a single offense type and a single set of
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Y. Harada, T. Shimada / Computers & Geosciences 32 (2006) 10961107 1105

Fig. 9. Distribution of incident densities of akisu (residential burglary)(gou-level AGC): example of areas where address expressions do not
allow ban-level geocoding.

parameters in the kernel density estimation. Further States and most European countries. A brief
analyses are needed for a better understanding of the illustration of typical Japanese addresses may
impact of the precision of address geocoding on the illuminate the difference.
estimated density of crime locations in a variety of Fig. A1 shows a map of Kabukicho area, one of
settings. Nevertheless, our analysis here appears to the largest and busiest amusement centers of Tokyo.
have provided a starting point and to have suggested Imagine that a peep-show house has an address of
a direction for future studies. By accumulating 1-2-3 Kabukicho, Shinjuku, Tokyo. The rst
empirical evidence along this line, we will be able to number of its address, namely, 1, is called a cho
develop practical guidelines, as well as caveats, for or chome number. It refers to a part of
legitimate and meaningful use of kernel density Kabukicho district, shown as Kabukicho 1
estimation in the analyses of spatial patterns of crime. chome (which stands for the 1st sub-district of
Kabukicho) in Fig. A1. As such, the cho number
Acknowledgements refers to a polygon shape. Similarly, the second
number in the above address string, namely, 2,
We thank Dr. Tetsuya Shoji, Dr. Liang-Chi Hsu, which is called a ban number, refers to a block, or
Dr. Chang-Jo Chung and anonymous reviewers for a group of several blocks, in which the peep-show
their constructive reviews, which signicantly im- house is located. As such, the ban number also
proved this manuscript. refers to a polygon shape, or a multi-part polygon
shape, which is included in the above cho polygon
Appendix A:. Address-geocoding in Japan shape. On the other hand, the third number,
namely, 3 in the above address string, which
In Japan, addresses are expressed in a format is called a gou number, approximates the
widely different from those used in the United location (of the entrance) of a building, of which
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1106 Y. Harada, T. Shimada / Computers & Geosciences 32 (2006) 10961107

Fig. 10. Differences in estimated incident densities of akisu (residential burglary)(gou-level AGC results vs. ban-level AGC results):
example of areas where address expressions do not allow ban-level geocoding.

Fig. A1. Kabukicho map.


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Y. Harada, T. Shimada / Computers & Geosciences 32 (2006) 10961107 1107

the peep-show house is a tenant. As such, the gou Chainey, S., Reid, S., 1999. When is a hotspot a hotspot? A
number refers to a point shape included in the ban procedure for creating statistically robust hotspot maps of
polygon shape. crime. In: Proceedings of the Third International Crime
Mapping Conference, Chicago Police Department, Citizen
In the same way that a ban polygon is included ICAM, http://www.cityofchicago.org/ctznicam/ctznicam.htm.
in a cho polygon, a cho polygon (e.g. Kabu- Delaune, M., Chikinev, M., 2005. XTools Pro. DataEast
kicho 1 chome, or the 1st sub-district of Kabu- Company. http://www.xtoolspro.com/index.html.
kicho, in Fig. A1.) is included in a larger polygon Eck, J.E., Weisburd, D. (Eds.), 1995. Crime and Place. Crime
that represents Shinjuku city. In turn, Shinjuku city Prevention Studies, vol. 4. Criminal Justice Press, Monsey
New York 361pp.
is included in a polygon that represents Tokyo Goldsmith, V., McGuire, P.G., Mollenkoph, J.H., Ross, T.A.
prefecture. Thus, Japanese (typical) address format (Eds.), 2000. Analyzing Crime Patterns: Frontiers of Practice.
consists of the numbers and names of hierarchically Sage Publications, Thousand Oaks, CA 187pp.
ordered areas (in other words, polygons) where a Harada, Y., Shimada, T., Suzuki, M., 2005. Developing address-
lower-level polygon is always included in a higher- geocoding support tools for digital map 2500. Reports of the
National Research Institute of Police Science (Research on
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area is dened. Levine, N., 2004. CrimeStat III (Version 3.0): A Spatial Statistics
Mainly due to such a wide difference in address Program for the Analysis of Crime Incident Locations. The
National Institute of Justice, Washington, D. C.
formats between US and Japan, major GIS
McLafferty, S., Williamson, D., McGuire, P.G., 2000. Identifying
packages including ArcView do not provide ad- crime hot spots using kernel smoothing. In: Goldsmith, V.,
dress-geocoding features compatible with Japanese McGuire, P.G., Mollenkoph, J.H., Ross, T.A. (Eds.),
address expressions, even in their Japanese Analyzing Crime Patterns: Frontiers of Practice. Sage
versions developed by local dealers. In fact, there Publications, Thousand Oaks, CA, pp. 7785.
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