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VALDAI DISCUSSION CLUB REPORT

www.valdaiclub.com

GLOBAL REVOLT AND GLOBAL ORDER


THE REVOLUTIONARY SITUATION IN CONDITION
OF THE WORLD AND WHAT TO DO ABOUT IT
Oleg Barabanov , Timofey Bordachev, Fyodor Lukyanov,
Andrey Sushentsov, Dmitry Suslov, Ivan Timofeev

MOSCOW, FEBRUARY 2017


Authors
The report was prepared by the research team of the Foundation for Development and Support
of the Valdai Discussion Club under supervision of Fyodor Lukyanov, Academic Director
of the Foundation for Development and Support of the Valdai Discussion Club, Chairman
of the Presidium of Foreign and Defense Policy Council, Editor-in-Chief of the Journal Russia
in Global Affairs

Oleg Barabanov
Programme Director of the Foundation for Development and Support of the Valdai Discussion Club,
Academic Director of the European Studies Institute at the Moscow State Institute of International
Relations (University) of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, Professor
of the Russian Academy of Science

Timofey Bordachev
Programme Director of the Foundation for Development and Support of the Valdai Discussion
Club, Director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the National
Research University Higher School of Economics, Ph.D. in Political Science

Andrey Sushentsov
Programme Director of the Valdai Discussion Club Foundation, Director of the Foreign Policy
Analysis Group, Associate Professor at Department of Applied International Analysis of International
Relations (University) of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, Ph.D. in Political
Science

Dmitry Suslov
Programme Director of the Foundation for Development and Support of the Valdai Discussion Club,
Deputy Director of the Centre for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the National
Research University Higher School of Economics

Ivan Timofeev
Programme Director of the Foundation for Development and Support of the Valdai Discussion Club,
Director of Programmes at Russian International Affairs Council, Ph.D. in Political Science

Chairman of the Board of the Foundation


forDevelopment and Support oftheValdaiDiscussion Club
Andrey Bystritskiy

ISBN 978-5-906757-43-2
Contents

Introduction ...............................................................................................................................................................3

Revolutionary Situation? .........................................................................................................................................4

Why the Disorder? ...................................................................................................................................................5

Anatomy of a Protest ...............................................................................................................................................8

Now Even the Economy Is a Game Without Rules ........................................................................................... 10

Various Problems One Solution? ................................................................................................................... 14

The Revolt of the Rich and the Role of International Institutions ............................................................... 16

Homework Time..................................................................................................................................................... 20
GLOBAL REVOLT AND GLOBAL ORDER
THE REVOLUTIONARY SITUATION IN CONDITION OF THE WORLD AND WHAT TO DO ABOUT IT

Introduction
The sweeping and rapid transformation Understanding these reasons is a challenge in itself.
of the world calls for an equally quick and But there is an element that can be more important
thorough analysis. than others the new opportunities offered by
communication systems. The IT breakthrough
The point at issue is that simple arithmetic has influenced all processes that involve humans.
cannot be applied to complex systems such as The wide variety and the incredible amount
the human world, and an analysis of its separate of information that can be transmitted at a near-
elements cannot help you understand the whole light speed appear to have involved hundreds
and its dynamics. A study of each individual ant of millions in political processes, which used to be
is not enough to understand the life of an anthill. accessible to a limited few in the past. This large-
scale involvement has made the global situation
There are many reasons for the ongoing more susceptible to public opinion. At the same
transformation, which may be dangerous. But none time, people have become more vulnerable
of them can explain the change if taken separately. to manipulation, and the number of manipulators
Although important, the purely political, has increased manifold.
economic, social or cultural reasons cannot explain
the transformation as a whole. The answer can Its difficult to say whether we are right or wrong
only be found in understanding the interaction in our understanding of the world. However,
between all elements of the modern world. I believe that the only effective approach
is to analyze the interaction of the various
For example, you see political sentiments elements that form our picture of the world.
changing in Western Europe, where an
increasing number of voters are leaning I hope this report can help us better understand
towards the right. But you cannot explain this the nature of the current transformation and its
only by economic problems. Living standards possible consequences.
may not be growing very fast, but they are not
plummeting either. Brexit is not the result
Andrey Bystritskiy,
of widespread impoverishment. Even the large
Chairman of the Board of the
inflow of migrants into Europe cannot explain
the change. In short, there is a combination Foundation for Development and
of reasons. Support of the Valdai Discussion Club

VALDAI DISCUSSION CLUB REPORT, FEBRUARY 2017 3


GLOBAL REVOLT AND GLOBAL ORDER
THE REVOLUTIONARY SITUATION IN CONDITION OF THE WORLD AND WHAT TO DO ABOUT IT

Revolutionary Situation?
Many years after the student unrest that swept The system of relations established in the world
most of the world in 1968, one well-known a quarter century ago is coming under attack from
participant, Daniel Cohn-Bendit, remembered two directions from non-Western states that
the gist of those events in this way: It was a revolt had no part in formulating its principles and that
by the generation born after World War II against now consider that system unfair, and the societies
the type of society that the generation of the war of those leading countries that reject the elite who
had constructed after 1945. The revolt assumed are responsible for the policies of the last decades.
different forms in different places. In Warsaw and
Prague, people protested against the communist More than 100 years ago, Vladimir Lenin that famed
regimes, in Paris and Frankfurt, they denounced practitioner of social and political transformation
the stranglehold the conservative bourgeoisie defined the main features of a revolutionary situation,
held over society, in San Francisco and New York, and they still hold true today. Leaders can no longer
demonstrators voiced outrage over militarism rule in the old way, the lower classes refuse to live as
and inequality, while in Islamabad and Istanbul, leaders dictate, and changes in the social order, crisis
they rejected military rule. They were all united by conditions, and the incompetence of the ruling class
the desire to end the old way of life. We were also provoke the masses to become involved in the political
the first media generation, recalled Cohn-Bendit. struggle. This is true not only of individual countries,
The media played a big role because it transported but of the entire global system, as we are witnessing
the momentum of the revolt, and this inspired now. In fact, one of the main characteristics
demonstrators from one country to another. of the globalization process that began sweeping
the world in the late 20th century is the blurring
Now almost half a century later, the world of borders and not only between countries
is once again living through a parallel time. and political blocs, but also between foreign and
This phenomenon of spontaneous and similar, domestic affairs. Not one modern state can withstand
though seemingly unrelated processes taking place the influence of international factors that transcend
on different continents first occurred is reminiscent borders and ideologies.
of events that first occurred in 1968. The pattern
is the same: the masses are dissatisfied with the socio- The world is already changing, but by which
economic and political structures established after method? Is it through an evolutionary
the war this time the Cold War. The wellspring process in which the ever-greater number
of this protest is once again at the heart of the Western of players cooperatively effects the transformation
world, the cradle of the political and economic system of the world order? Or is it proceeding by
that emerged after 1991. Unlike half a century past, a revolutionary process in which the common
stones and Molotov cocktails hurled in anger are, people reject the existing order and set out
at least for now, a rarity in the developed world: to overthrow those in power who themselves
in the intervening decades the world really has struggle to retain their wealth and privileges?
become more democratic, and the people of most
countries can now express their dissatisfaction Choice of method will determine the nature
through ballots and referendums. (Unfortunately, of the next period of history. And until it becomes
though, such exceptions as the Middle East provoke clear in which direction events will develop,
waves of convulsions whose shockwaves reverberate the responsibility for ensuring that the situation
far beyond their own countries and regions.) does not spiral out of control lies with broad-based
And once again, the main catalyst is media, only international institutions. They alone are capable
now it is universal and ubiquitous, with the result of, if not halting the fragmentation of the global
that the new revolt is instantaneously broadcast system, then at least smoothing out the process
to the world and influences it in turn. and channeling it in a peaceful direction.

4 VALDAI DISCUSSION CLUB REPORT, FEBRUARY 2017


GLOBAL REVOLT AND GLOBAL ORDER
THE REVOLUTIONARY SITUATION IN CONDITION OF THE WORLD AND WHAT TO DO ABOUT IT

Why the Disorder?


The U.S. political scientist Ken Jowitt coined Most commentators of the time discounted
the term new world disorder, using it as the title those concerns as baseless alarmism. After all,
of a collection of his works he published in 1992. everyone was talking about the new world order
Against the backdrop of general euphoria that reigned that was replacing the paradigm of military,
in the West at that time, Jowitt warned that after political, and ideological confrontation.
the extinction of Leninism, its victorious opponent Today, disorder is arguably the primary
liberal capitalist democracy would not have long feature of the international landscape. Jowitts
to enjoy its triumph. Soon, wrote Jowitt, new trends prediction began coming true approximately
would appear that run counter to individualism, two decades after Francis Fukuyama proclaimed
materialism, achievement and rationality. the end of history.

PROTEST VOTING IN
PROTEST VOTING IN EUROPE
EUROPE 2016
2016

Last National Election Polls (Jul-Aug)

Left-wing %
5 Star (ITA)

Syriza (GRE)

Podemos (SPA)

Sinn Fein (IRE)


Left Bloc (POR)

Die Linke (GER)

Right-wing Austrian Freedom Party


National Front (France)
Sweden Democrats
Danish People's Party
Dutch Freedom Party
Vlaams Belang (BEL)
N. League & Us with Salvini (ITA)*
*Election is N. League only
UK Independence Party
Alternative for Germany
Golden Dawn (GRE)
Finns Party (Finland)

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Source: Opinion polls, Morgan Stanley Research

VALDAI DISCUSSION CLUB REPORT, FEBRUARY 2017 5


GLOBAL REVOLT AND GLOBAL ORDER
THE REVOLUTIONARY SITUATION IN CONDITION OF THE WORLD AND WHAT TO DO ABOUT IT

CONFLICT RATES
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6 VALDAI DISCUSSION CLUB REPORT, FEBRUARY 2017


GLOBAL REVOLT AND GLOBAL ORDER
THE REVOLUTIONARY SITUATION IN CONDITION OF THE WORLD AND WHAT TO DO ABOUT IT

THE HISTORY OF WORLD COUPS FROM THE 50S TO THE PRESENT

The world has had 475 coups, with 236 successful

20 coups
10
5 Turkey has had
6 coups,
3 were successful

Bolivia
has experienced
the most coups,
total in 23 attempts,
with 11 successes

The Yemen Arab Republic and The People's Democratic Republic of Yemen are counted as on entry

Source: Jonathan Powell and Clayton Thyne JEREMY C.F. LIN/THE WASHINGTON POST

A triple dissatisfaction lies at the heart The evidence is the widespread violence
of this new world disorder. The parties that in the Middle East, political crises in Europe and
are dissatisfied and each for a different the U.S., Washingtons worsening relations with
reason include a) the elite of the leading Western Moscow and Beijing, and the growing imbalance
countries; b) Western societies, and; c) major in the global economy.
non-Western powers. It was possible to keep a lid
on that irritation for a time, but it reached a boiling Western societies are growing increasingly fearful
point by the second decade of the 21st century of globalization, a process that has brought
and came bursting forth in multiple directions at the world closer in the economic and political sense,
once. Now in 2016, not a single major player can be but that has not made it any safer, attractive, or
found who is entirely satisfied with the economic homogenous. Residents of the developed world
and political status quo. are facing large-scale challenges in the form
of terrorism, radical Islam, uncontrolled migration,
The establishment of Western states that and a decline in the standard of living. Paradoxically,
assumed authority after the end of the Cold citizens of leading Western countries have a far
War, found itself unable to maintain control gloomier view of the future than do people living
over the worlds political and economic life. in other states.

VALDAI DISCUSSION CLUB REPORT, FEBRUARY 2017 7


GLOBAL REVOLT AND GLOBAL ORDER
THE REVOLUTIONARY SITUATION IN CONDITION OF THE WORLD AND WHAT TO DO ABOUT IT

The leading non-Western states that have institutions of international trade. The Western
either entered or returned to the supreme elite, however, are primarily intent on preserving
league of world politics in the last decade their own privileged position and pursue an
consider it necessary to develop new rules agenda that is opposed to the aspirations
of the game in politics and security that of the non-Western centers of power. They do
correspond to the realities of a polycentric world. so in part because they feel pressure from their
They also seek to reform the global economic own disgruntled societies that are unhappy
order primarily its financial component and with the status quo, and are as yet unable to offer
advocate the preservation of universal norms and them alternatives.

Anatomy of a Protest
The dissatisfaction is universal in nature. A critical further marginalized the proletariat and parts
and relatively new factor is the social and political of the middle class especially youth. The use
turmoil agitating the core of the order that, as of taxpayers money to rescue bankrupt private
anticipated, emerged after the end of the bipolar entities that is, the large-scale nationalization
confrontation. The problems sparking protest of private sector losses probably helps avert
in Europe and the U.S. can be divided into four even greater negative fallout, but it also calls
interconnected groups. into question the moral integrity of the economic
model itself.
The first is the gradual deepening of income
inequality. In addition to wages, at issue is peoples Third, the blurring of borders and the elimination
diminishing ability to improve their social status. of trade barriers has opened up opportunities for
Opportunities for social mobility are on the decline. business, but it has also deepened imbalances
Education, and especially higher education that in the social and political spheres. Medium-
once served as an admission ticket to the middle size and smaller states have little leverage
class is becoming increasingly expensive. to halt the flight of domestic capital and labor,
Even that ticket is losing value, as evidenced or for reversing the harm those outflows cause
by the growing number of graduates who drive to the local production base. At the same time,
taxis. On the other hand, social infrastructure governments must take full responsibility before
and public goods are shrinking. The process their people for the consequences of those trends
proceeds unevenly, with some experiencing greater because voters are the authorities sole source
well-being than others. But regardless, the fate of political legitimacy.
of the welfare state remains a central issue in every
election. Fourth, the growing fear of migrants, and
especially those of the Muslim diaspora, is most
Second is the growth in unemployment. In effect, pronounced in Europe. On one hand, migration
the world has not yet overcome the crisis of 2008- can spur economic growth, and business interests
2009. The large-scale relocation of manufacturing often lobby in support of it. On the other
to developing countries delivered a serious blow hand, governments must deal with the social
to entire regions of industrialized nations, and consequences of migration. The situation is only
the influx of cheap labor through migration only aggravated by the massive influx of refugees and

8 VALDAI DISCUSSION CLUB REPORT, FEBRUARY 2017


GLOBAL REVOLT AND GLOBAL ORDER
THE REVOLUTIONARY SITUATION IN CONDITION OF THE WORLD AND WHAT TO DO ABOUT IT

GERMANY: ATTITUDE TO IMMIGRANTS


Germany's attitude to immigration is hardening
"Should Germany welcome more asylum seekers or is the number already too high?" (%)

60
62
Too high Could be higher
50

42
40

30
27
20
18
10

0
Jul'15 Sep'15 Oct'15 Nov'15 Jan'16

Source: YouGov

VIEWS OF IMMIGRANTS IN EUROPE AND THE U.S.


% who say immigrants today
Make our country stronger because Are a burden on our country because
of their work and talents WKH\WDNHRXUMREVDQGVRFLDOEHQHWV
Germany 66 29
U.K. 52 37
Spain 47 46
France 45 52
Poland 24 52
Greece 19 70
Italy 19 69

Strengthen our country because Are a burden on our country because


of their hard work and talents they take our jobs, housing and health care
U.S. 51 41

Note: Don't know/refused and both/neither responses not shown.


Source: Pew Research Center survey of U.S. adults, May 12-18, 2015; and Spring 2014 Global Attitudes survey

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GLOBAL REVOLT AND GLOBAL ORDER
THE REVOLUTIONARY SITUATION IN CONDITION OF THE WORLD AND WHAT TO DO ABOUT IT

the spread of Islamic terrorism, a situation that more, it reduces the resources of the state
leaves many ordinary citizens feeling afraid and even as society constantly expects more from
defenseless. the government. The calls in Europe, and
especially the United States, to implement openly
The conceptual crisis has reached such proportions protectionist measures could lead to unexpected
that half-measures and limited actions are consequences in a world economy that is now
useless: only a systemic solution has any hope more interdependent than ever.
of producing results. However, it seems that both
the right and the left have no such plan to offer. The lack of an obvious solution makes it
Instead, the left proposes re-industrializing practically inevitable that political conflicts will
and raising taxes on business in order to build worsen in the West. This marks the end of the era
up public goods. However, that approach could of centrism, when everyone agreed that party
only produce the desired effect in a relatively polemics should play out within a rigid framework.
closed system a condition that is already Demand is growing for outspoken ideology-
unattainable. In addition, the industrialization driven positions, as seen by such increasingly
that U.S. President Donald Trump has made a point popular politicians as the British Labour Party
of promising his supporters will probably be based leader Jeremy Corbyn and French presidential
on completely different technologies and will not candidate Benot Hamon of the Socialist Party.
necessarily lead to the creation of a significant New forms of ideological struggle will inevitably
number of new jobs. appear, and the left and right will continue taking
increasingly radical positions partly reenacting
As for the right, it proposes creating the battles of the first half of the 20th century.
a favorable business climate through tax cuts National administrations and politicians will have
and the reduction of trade barriers. But that to respond to voter demand for a greater emphasis
does not solve the problem of inequality. Whats on ensuring public safety.

Now Even the Economy Is a Game Without Rules


The domestic turbulences various countries political sphere to fully encompass economic
a r e ex p e r i e n c i n g a r e d i r e c t l y r e l a t e d relations.
to the general state of the global political
and economic order. The Valdai Club report The order created by the West contributed
in 2015 stated that the international system the growth of a number of developing countries. As
had become a game without rules and that a result, those states have not called for a complete
the old rules were unacceptable to many overhaul of the existing order, but have limited
of the worlds leading players.1 The situation their demands to a call for greater representation
has worsened ever since, as evidenced by in that system. However, with the advent of the era
the fact that the tendency toward unilateral of global interdependence, it is no longer possible
action has now spread beyond the military and to maintain a balanced and smoothly-functioning
scheme in one area when entropy and institutional
1
See Valdai Discussion Club report New Rules or No Rules (Moscow, dysfunction are mounting in other areas. Over the last
March 2015). URL: http://valdaiclub.com/a/reports/new_rules_or_no_
rules_xi_annual_valdai_discussion_club_meeting_participants_report/ two years, the principle of a game without rules has

10 VALDAI DISCUSSION CLUB REPORT, FEBRUARY 2017


GLOBAL REVOLT AND GLOBAL ORDER
THE REVOLUTIONARY SITUATION IN CONDITION OF THE WORLD AND WHAT TO DO ABOUT IT

OUTCOMES OF GLOBALIZATION. INEQUALITY RATE (U.S.A)

Growth of unemployment, low ratio of workers' salaries with the all-time highest wealth disparity

450%

CEO's pay
400%
S&P 500
350% &RUSRUDWHSURWV
Production worker's pay 298.2%
300%
Federal minimum wage

250%

200%

150%
141.4%

100%

106.7%
50%

4.3%
0%

9.3%
50%
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Source: Executive Excess 2006, the 13th Annual CEO Compensation Survey from the Institute for Policy and United for a Fair Economy

spread to the global economy. The interdependence The Valdai Club suggested in 2016 that one
and freedom in trade and economic relations that way out of the current disorder would be
until recently were considered factors fostering the formation of two giant transcontinental
growth for all and that served as safeguards against economic and political communities: one
hostilities, are today used as tools to weaken embracing two oceans with the U.S. at its
opponents and gain geopolitical advantage. Whereas center, and the other, a Greater Eurasia with
national security interests previously came into the SCO at its core 2. The year just passed,
play almost exclusively in the energy field, they now while not disproving this theory did force
carry increasing influence in the global economy some adjustments to it and demonstrated that
and international economic relations. The fact the trends are accelerating and shifting into
that unilateral sanctions and other restrictive and the next phase.
repressive measures have now become standard
practice indicates that the liberal order touted 2
See Valdai Discussion Club report - http://valdaiclub.com/a/reports/
in the last decade has now come to an end. international-stability-and-balance-of-the-new-type/.

VALDAI DISCUSSION CLUB REPORT, FEBRUARY 2017 11


GLOBAL REVOLT AND GLOBAL ORDER
THE REVOLUTIONARY SITUATION IN CONDITION OF THE WORLD AND WHAT TO DO ABOUT IT

The new U.S. president took office with slogans is necessary to preserve at least some ground rules
about the evils of free trade and the need for behavior and civilized mechanisms for conflict
to review the economic and trade agreements resolution to avoid lapsing into destructive trade
made by his predecessors. He has replaced wars. This suggests the importance of preserving
the idea of an open economic order and and strengthening the World Trade Organization.
continued liberalization with rhetoric along
the lines of America First! Considering that Despite the fact that Washington now
the U.S. continues to dominate the global system rejects the megaprojects it originally
and sets the tone of international politics, such initiated specifically, the Trans-Pacific
a shift would inevitably cause other countries and Partnership and the Transatlantic Trade and
regions to reorder their priorities. It is unclear Investment Partnership a restructuring
just how much the trend toward globalization of the global economy in favor of regionalization
might reverse direction and whether, as some continues in one form or another. Political
commentators have suggested, the world is really trends are pushing it in this direction. However,
moving toward a form of mercantilism. If so, it given the deep interdependence of all national

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THE REVOLUTIONARY SITUATION IN CONDITION OF THE WORLD AND WHAT TO DO ABOUT IT

economies, it is highly unlikely that the global trade arrangement at present, encompassing
system will fracture into little pieces. approximately one-fourth of the worlds trade, but
some of its rule and regulations are also among
Tensions between Russia and NATO will probably the toughest. Talks continue on the TTIP and
continue, especially given the current deadlock the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership
over the Ukrainian crisis. (RCEP) endorsed by China. The Eurasian Economic
Union (EEU) and China are formulating an
The existing model of transatlantic relations agreement and talks might begin on establishing an
is gradually eroding, along with everything else EEU-ASEAN free trade zone. Although the process
inherited from the previous era, but that process of forming mega-regional communities has slowed
might also prompt Western countries to use recently, it is probably only a temporary setback as
an inimical image of Russia as a rallying point. political trends are clearly moving toward greater
The growing military and political estrangement consolidation of competing blocks.
will put distance between the EAEU and
the European Union, although from an economic Several factors could drive a wedge between
standpoint, the two structures are natural the EEU and the European Union, including
partners in the process of building a Greater growing tensions between Russia and NATO,
Eurasia. Unfortunately, there seems to be little a probable new escalation of the Ukrainian crisis,
chance that the two integrative associations will and progress on the TTIP. That leaves very little
hammer out mutually acceptable rules of the game hope that these two integrative entities will
in their common neighborhood. The potential for manage to hammer out mutually acceptable rules
economic conflict in the Asia-Pacific region will of the game for their common neighborhood.
grow as the military competitiveness intensifies The sense of rivalry between the TPP and RCEP
between Beijing and Washington, and between in the Asia-Pacific Region is not as pronounced,
China and a host of U.S. allies in Asia. The Trump but it rises and falls in relation to the degree
administration has focused the brunt of its of military competitiveness between the U.S. and
criticism on Beijing. China, and between China and a host of U.S. allies
in Asia. This is especially true because the anti-
Both BRICS member states and Western countries China nature of the TPP is the primary, if not
declare their commitment to an open economic the only reason the U.S. Congress might support it.
order and liberalization. Washington has offered
assurances that its Trans-Pacific Partnership If such a division or distancing occurs, will it prove
(TPP) and Transatlantic Trade and Investment a means for addressing the root problems of world
Partnership (TTIP) initiatives are not substitutes development or an effective response to the triple
for the WTO. But if the WTO does continue, it would dissatisfaction mentioned above? Definitely not.
not be as the primary organization for world trade After all, the challenges and threats, as well as
one that would be largely regulated by new regional the tasks before the worlds leading powers are
regimes but as an umbrella and advisory structure. global, not regional in nature even if integrative
projects effectively make those regions several
Regional trade and economic cooperation times larger in size, or the reverse, regions
is on the rise and mega-regional structures fragment and divide. The failure of the major
for economic administration are gaining powers to develop a universal policy of practical
strength. The U.S. remains the leading outside effectiveness does not change the fact that
economic influence in Asia. Not only is the TPP the countries of the world are increasingly
agreement signed in February 2016 and currently interconnected, or eliminate the issues stemming
undergoing ratification the most advanced from that reality.

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GLOBAL REVOLT AND GLOBAL ORDER
THE REVOLUTIONARY SITUATION IN CONDITION OF THE WORLD AND WHAT TO DO ABOUT IT

Various Problems One Solution?


The trend toward divisiveness in areas of politics main theater of military presence. The U.S.-Chinese
and security in the Atlantic and Asia-Pacific arms control talks no longer focus on the desire
regions deepened in 2016. The broad confrontation to avoid confrontation, but on ways to manage
between Russia and the U.S. continues despite the confrontation that already exists.
their cooperation on Iran and, until recently, Syria.
NATO has shifted more decisively toward a policy Not one of the scenarios by which global
of containing Russia by opting to expand its military events could foreseeably develop would lead
infrastructure into the territory of the newest NATO to the establishment of a new and stable
member states formally on a rotational basis, but equilibrium. Most alarmingly, no one can evenly
effectively creating a permanent presence there. dimly visualize a world order capable of resolving
The deployment of four battalions will hardly the numerous conflicts of the 21st century.
present a military threat to Russia, but it does raise The ruling and intellectual elite of the West
the risk of sparking an uncontrollable escalation. generally continue to insist on the inviolability
The deployment of the U.S. missile defense system of the principles they adopted after the Cold War,
in Europe could also seriously aggravate relations, ignoring the results of their practical application.
and the new U.S. administration is unlikely Of course, the political earthquakes
to abandon those plans. That would compromise of 2016 in Great Britain and the U.S. indicate that
the main Cold War principle of strategic the departure from the paradigm of the 1990s- 2010s
stability the certainty that no nuclear attack could has already begun, but for now, it is accompanied by
go unpunished. an increasingly fierce political battle that could lead
to unpredictable consequences. One unexpected
Washington officially cites the potential fact, however, is clear: the situation in the leading
of the Peoples Liberation Army of China as Western states, and especially in the U.S., will be
the reference point for developing its own armed the main contributing factor to political uncertainty
forces, and considers the Asia-Pacific region as its in the world for the near future. China and other

RATE OF TERRORIST ATTACKS IN WESTERN EUROPE


Terrorism in Western Europe 1970-2016*
ETA/RAF/IRA
1000
People killed
Number of attacks Datagraver.com 2016
Data: START GTD, wikipedia (*2016)
800
NB: **1993 dataset not complete
ETA/IRA/Neo-Nazi *2016 up to September 1st, only people killed,
number of attacks not available
600

400
Lockerbie
Brussels
Madrid Nice
200
Paris (2)
Oslo/Utoya
0
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 **1993 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 *2016

Source: http://www.datagraver.com/case/people-killed-by-terrorism-per-year-in-western-europe-1970-2015

14 VALDAI DISCUSSION CLUB REPORT, FEBRUARY 2017


GLOBAL REVOLT AND GLOBAL ORDER
THE REVOLUTIONARY SITUATION IN CONDITION OF THE WORLD AND WHAT TO DO ABOUT IT

VICTIMS OF TERRORIST ATTACKS BY COUNTRY


Victims Of Terrorist Attacks Beyond Western Europe
Number of persons killed by terrorist attacks in selected countries, 2001-2014

Iraq 42,759
Afghanistan 16,888
Pakistan 13,524
Nigeria 11,997
Worldwide
India 6,999 108,294
Syria 3,592
USA 3,047
Somalia 2,883
Russia 2,606 Western Europe
Algeria 2,415 420

Sudan 2,325
Yemen 2,029

Source: Global Terrorism Database

major non-Western powers shun substantive Meanwhile, the military buildup by the major
discussion, focusing only on furthering their powers coupled with turmoil in the periphery could
practical interests at the present moment. Russia lead to untold disaster a series of severe conflicts
has adopted a primarily reactive posture due affecting every member of the global order, from
to the fact that long-term planning is impossible the major powers to unstable quasi-states.
in the modern world.
The confusion caused by the deteriorating global
Faced with social protests at home and finding security situation is ubiquitous. And it is typical
themselves unable to change their existing that, from among the entire spectrum of threats
political and economic models, the ruling that exist, leaders tend to focus on those that
elite in leading countries have put security at are most familiar from past experience. This
the center of their foreign and domestic policies. is especially evident in the North Atlantic bloc.
This is a proven method for rallying society and
avoiding painful reforms. At the same time, NATO is not only the most powerful military and
the growing instability in peripheral regions lends political alliance in the history of mankind, but
legitimacy to the sharply increased foreign policy also the backbone of the world order that emerged
focus on security and justifies the subsequent after the Cold War. Today, however, that alliance
mobilization of resources to meet those challenges. is losing its relevance to global security. It is ill-

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GLOBAL REVOLT AND GLOBAL ORDER
THE REVOLUTIONARY SITUATION IN CONDITION OF THE WORLD AND WHAT TO DO ABOUT IT

fitted to fighting terrorism, incapable of staunching to a hypothetical threat even while they remain
the flow of refugees, and its interference in Middle unprotected against real and present dangers.
Eastern affairs whether under the NATO flag or
at the initiative of individual member states The result is an extremely dangerous situation
produces results opposite to those desired. Whats reflecting a whole potpourri of contributing factors.
more, the North Atlantic bloc is not a player These include the breakdown of the European
in the Asia-Pacific region, where the most dynamic security system; local crises in transitional states
developments are likely to take place in the coming in which major players have become involved;
years. imbalances in Western societies and the potential
for domestic problems to worsen in Russia and
One task is given high priority: containing Russia. China; the overriding strategic importance that all
The communiqu from last years NATO summit major powers have given to security concerns; and
in Warsaw focused squarely on this objective and the growing willingness of those societies to accept
referred to specific measures taken to achieve security issues as a top priority. These factors,
it. The same can not be said regarding terrorism taken together, are likely to become a reality for
and other threats: the Alliance issued only formal many years into the future. And that spells a long-
declarations of their intent to combat them. In effect, term bias towards secrecy and a growing risk
European taxpayers are financing the response of full-scale military conflict.

The Revolt of the Rich


and the Role of International Institutions
Two factors prevent the world from sliding two pillars of international security. Additional
into the abyss: the unprecedented global guarantees are needed that the risks posed by
interdependence of international trade and global imbalances will not prove fatal. That
national economies, coupled with increasing global is the role of international institutions.
connectivity in general and, to a greater extent,
nuclear deterrence between key major powers The existing international institutions and the rules
belonging to different security communities. they formulate come under constant and widespread
However, the efficacy of these two restraining criticism. They are branded as archaic, ineffective,
factors is not unlimited. As mentioned above, that and unsuited to the realities of the modern world and
interdependence is increasingly becoming a tool particularly the global market. Whats more, some
not for overcoming differences, but for applying critics contend that the rules are undemocratic and
pressure. Moreover, the U.S. leadership has do not take the interests of all concerned parties
made it an official objective to decrease its level into account, while others contend just the opposite,
of dependence on others. And nuclear deterrence that they are too democratic and lose efficacy by
is now less effective than during the Cold War. permitting too many a say in affairs.
This is due, first, to the gradual spread of nuclear
weapons and, second, to the gradual loss of fear Those criticisms are valid and the shortcomings
that such weapons might ever be used. Either way, they point to are very real: not a single
it is extremely risky to rely exclusively on these international institution remains that functions

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GLOBAL REVOLT AND GLOBAL ORDER
THE REVOLUTIONARY SITUATION IN CONDITION OF THE WORLD AND WHAT TO DO ABOUT IT

THE "FRUSTRATED ACHIEVERS" PHENOMENON (BY THE EXAMPLE OF LATIN AMERICA)*


Educated people who achieved a certain social status are more predisposed to protests
Protest Rate By Education
*Latin America is clearly a region where people exercise their rights to civic participation:
roughly one in six of our 66,000 respondents reported to have participated in an authorized protest

2,5

2
Protest Rate

1,5

None 3 years 6 years 9 years 12 years

Incomplete higher ed.


Level of Education Completed higher ed.

Protest Rate By Wealth

2,5
Protest Rate

1,5

0 3 6 9 12
Number of Assets

Note: because our measure of wealth is based on ownership of 12 key assets, ranging from
running water to a computer to a vacation home, it does not clearly distinguish respondents
at the top of the income distribution from the middle.

Source: Brookings. https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2014/06/17/frustrated-achievers-protests-and-unhappiness-in-3-charts/

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GLOBAL REVOLT AND GLOBAL ORDER
THE REVOLUTIONARY SITUATION IN CONDITION OF THE WORLD AND WHAT TO DO ABOUT IT

as it was originally envisioned. Nonetheless, only occasions in the past 70 years to avoid slipping into
those broad-based international institutions and a major war. Should we rush to change such a rule?
rules can achieve solutions to the problems that To the contrary, it is important that we achieve
have accumulated. unconditional respect for this rule and guarantee
the preservation of this unique right.
International institutions and, in particular,
international law, are the most important legacy The United Nations, like any other universal
of the 20th century for ensuring that the world international structure, does not need reform,
remains relatively stable and governable. Their but commitment that its member countries
primary function is to gradually and subtly restrict will fulfill their obligations. That is the most
the sovereignty of states and diffuse or resolve effective way to strengthen the largest institution
political tensions. Now, in the second decade on the planet at least in the medium term, while
of the 21st century, international institutions international relations adapt to the ongoing
even with their obvious shortcomings offer turbulence.
the only guarantee that the rule of law will
remain reasonably binding on members Discord between the leading states
of the global community. Remove them, and is likely to deepen over the next 1520 years.
the world will revert to conditions that prevailed Such problems as European security, territorial
before mankind managed to construct a relatively disputes in the Asian seas, or the tangle of conflicts
ordered system of international relations. After in the Middle East where the interests of the major
all, humanity is now struggling under the heavy powers collide, leave little hope that those
burden of globalization, asymmetrical economic states can cooperate systematically to reform
interdependence, nuclear weapons and their the architecture of international governance.
spread, and such global challenges as climate The only remaining option for proceeding
change, natural disasters, cross-border terrorism in a civilized way is to strengthen existing
and crime, and diseases. If those problems are international institutions.
left unresolved, humanity will not simply hunker
down into opposing camps, but might lapse into An irreversible process of regionalization has been
an apocalyptic war of survival, of each one against triggered by the fact that the major beneficiaries
the other. of globalization refuse to cut deals with the new
centers of power. The major players are unwilling
The UN is often and justifiably criticized for its to give others a voice in international institutions
foot-dragging and for its Cold War inheritance and thus grant them access to the most
a hierarchy among member states in which some desirable dividends. The result is a revolution
exercise their power of veto to block any initiative, of the wealthy and the creation of new rules
even those that enjoy support by the majority of the game within the framework of macro-
of the international community. Some have called for regions on a more local and bilateral level.
reconsidering whether five UN member states should
retain the power of veto they granted themselves as By modifying the rules, the traditional leaders
the victors in World War II. They forget, however, that hope to correct imbalances in globalization and
the veto is the only and last way for the mightiest regain control over the situation and the main
military powers to avoid resorting to force benefits of the global economy. Other states
in cases where they consider their core interests are forced to follow suit, whether or not they
to be affected. It is only thanks to that archaic want to. Most likely, however, the states playing
right as some theoreticians and practitioners catch-up will choose not to attempt jumping
consider it that the world has managed on several on the last wagon of the train, as they did

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GLOBAL REVOLT AND GLOBAL ORDER
THE REVOLUTIONARY SITUATION IN CONDITION OF THE WORLD AND WHAT TO DO ABOUT IT

when the institutions of globalization were results. Elements of inequality, such as the special
developing, but will decide this time to build privileges enjoyed by the P5 are inevitable because
their own locomotive. China, Russia, and to some they help prevent fatal collisions involving
extent India and Iran are leading the resistance the major powers. But the deficit of democracy
to this revolution of the wealthy. Either as is dangerous because it serves the interests
a group or in some combination they will have of those seeking an authoritarian and exclusive
to create something like a partnership involving restructuring of the global system of governance
institutions and a system of international and especially because struggle against instability
governance on the macro-regional level. That, in the system and the global revolt could
however, should not serve as an excuse for only deepen those authoritarian tendencies.
failing to revise the system by which voting Broad-based international organizations are
rights are distributed in existing broad-based a living manifestation of democratization.
institutions of economic governance. Attempts to limit their powers are a direct
attack on democracy, one that is aimed
This is an irreversible part of the global revolt. against the majority of the sovereign states
That makes it all the more necessary to strive of the world.
to mitigate negative consequences by harnessing
the potential of broad-based international Of course, institutions are not free from corruption,
organizations for regulating economic excessively slow decision-making or individual
relations foremost among them, the World members that behave irresponsibly, but it
Trade Organization. The international community is necessary to struggle with these inevitable defects,
should regard the refusal to work on strengthening and not with the structures themselves. The erosion
that organization as an act of sabotage and of basic organizational structures of the world
deliberate destabilization. It is necessary community is causing them to regress, not progress.
to review the technical aspects of the activities It is necessary to improve and develop their
of the WTO and other broad-based economic legal foundations, and create stimuli for their
institutions, but it is wrong to simply try bureaucracies to become more efficient.
to replace or annul them altogether, as some
states are are de facto doing. People know too little about the United Nations
and, even worse, the information most widely
An important advantage of broad-based available about it is usually negative. This stems
international institutions is their classless not only from criticism of its actual problems,
character. They are far from capable of making but also from deliberate attempts to discredit
optimal decisions at present, but they at least global organizations. It is therefore important
accurately reflect the views and opinions of their to increase efforts by the UN, its agencies,
members. In the same way, deliberations and voting and other broad-based institutions to inform
in the UN General Assembly have often served as society of the nature of their activities.
a barometer of public sentiment. It is apparently The creation of an independent global source
time to consider expanding the number of issues of news a World News Channel would be
on which the General Assembly would hold a breakthrough in information policy. It would
deliberations and vote. That would better provide the worlds inhabitants, including
communicate the attitudes of different countries the political and business elite, with information
and revive diplomatic dialogue in the UN. about events across the planet using objective
reporting carried out under the guidance
Broad-based international institutions must of a special supervisory board. At present, the need
achieve greater transparency in their work and for unbiased news is filled, with varying degrees

VALDAI DISCUSSION CLUB REPORT, FEBRUARY 2017 19


GLOBAL REVOLT AND GLOBAL ORDER
THE REVOLUTIONARY SITUATION IN CONDITION OF THE WORLD AND WHAT TO DO ABOUT IT

of success, by the media of individual countries of the headquarters of universal international


a situation that has given rise to propaganda wars. organizations in favor of a more neutral location.

It is necessary to strengthen the independence If the 20 th century gave the international


of the international bureaucracy that serves as community something positive, it was,
a natural shock absorber of national policies and without doubt, international institutions and
changing conditions. It is important to strengthen international law. They do not, of themselves,
the supranational legal status and authority solve the problems facing humanity, and do not
of the UN Secretary General, whose dependence respond to the challenge of global discontent at
on a limited group of countries increased after the national and international levels, but they help
the Cold War. It might also be worthwhile humanity maintain a civilized path while it searches
to change the geographic placement for a sustainable solution to these problems.

Homework Time
The events of 1968 gave a powerful jolt to the whole can attend to their respective internal affairs.
world. The Prague Spring, the student riots This is especially important now that the latest
in Paris, and the anti-war movement and civil stage in the technological revolution that
rights struggle in the U.S. were caused by different will have a serious impact on socio-economic
and mostly internal factors, but all had important development has forced every country to make
international and political consequences. Both a serious assessment of its future. This also
of the major political blocs in the world at that suggests a parallel with the 1960s, when advances
time recognized that they would have to do some in science and technology bred both hopes for
serious homework, and that external stability a qualitative expansion of human capabilities and
would be needed for that. It was therefore concerns about man-made hazards and risks.
natural that the era of dtente began at precisely
that time. It saw the start of a complex political At the current stage of global development, it
and diplomatic process that led in several years is not possible to build something that would last
time to the signing of the Helsinki Final Act for decades. It is impossible to formulate a truly
of the Conference on Security and Co-operation final Final Act that would conclusively delineate
in Europe. That agreement confirmed the balance the new world order for decades to come. And yet
of powers and interests on the European continent it is necessary to minimize the risks arising from
the center of world political events at that time the fundamental shifts now taking place. It is a task
and established a set of principles and rules that whose scale, complexity, and importance, put it
ensured the stability of the international order. on a par with any of the most serious challenges
that the international system has ever faced.
More than 40 years have passed. The world has
changed dramatically, and continues to change, It is impossible to put down a global revolt and
but the international community has yet to adopt there is no need to even try. As with the commotion
a new set of documents similar in function of a half-century ago, humanity should see in these
to the Helsinki Final Act. The time has clearly events a chance for a new beginning rather than
come to declare a water truce so that all parties a threat to the old world order.

20 VALDAI DISCUSSION CLUB REPORT, FEBRUARY 2017


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