Management of critical failures with

probabilistic approach

1
1. PAS 55.
2. UPTIME Pyramid of Excellence & PAS - 55.
3. Strategic Management.
4. Tactic Management.
5. Maintenance Cost.
6. Critical Failures (Bad Actor).
7. Probabilistic Approach.
8. Models Development.
9. Benefits and Goals.

2
 Corporate Layered Integration
Organization Life Cycle
Organizational Strategic Goals
Management Optimization
Manage Asset Sustained Value
CAPEX optimization and
sustainability planning Portfolio Value Creation
Business Criticality
Sustained Performance, Continuous
Cost and Risk Manage Assets System Improvement
Optimization
Pragmatic
Manage
Optimize Life
Cycle Activities Create /
Assets Renew
Utilize Maintain /Dispose
acquire e
 Vital Context:
Business, Objectives,
Policies, Performance
requirements, Risk
Assessment
Important Interface:
Important Interface: Motivation, Communication, Roles
Life Cycle Cost, Capital & Responsibilities, Knowledge,
Investments, Operating Experience , Leadership, Teamwork
Costs

Financial Human Inclusive

Assets Whole Cycle
Assets Optimized
Physical Risk - Based
Assets Data - supported
Continuous
Intangible
Info Improvement
Assets Pragmatic
Important Interface: Assets
Reputation, Social
Responsibility, Constraints, Important Interface:
Social Impact Condition, Asset Health,
Performance, Activities,
Costs & Opportunities
 Vital Context:
Business, Objectives,
Policies, Performance
requirements, Risk
Management
Important Interface: Important Interface:
Knowledge, Understanding, Active participation of people,
Lean Process, Performance Positive influencer,
measurements & Know How Continuous Improvement, Do
How

Process Human Inclusive

Whole Cycle
Reliability Reliability Optimized
Asset Risk - Based

Reliability
Data - supported
Continuous
Improvement
Equipment Maintainability Pragmatic
Reliability Equipment's
Important Interface:
Maintenance Strategies,
Maintenance Optimized; Maximize Important Interface:
MTBF, MTTF, MTTR, UPTIME Internal Reliability, Planning &
Scheduling Effectiveness, Tactic
Management, Background.
Q

6
 DRIVERS BUSINESS EFFECTIVENESS: ROCE, RONA, EBIT
ADMINISTRATION, PRODUCTION Operations MAINTENANCE FINANCE,
Business Systems, IT Capital Management
ASSET OPTIMIZATION
HH RR.
Safety, Health, Environment, Risk Management and Control

Production Availability
Effectiveness
Reliability

Production Rate
Capital Effectiveness,
Quality
Q RONA

Production
Planning $
O&M Cost
Process Control Optimization
FRAME WORK
Information
Technology Maintenance Management

Purchasing Spare Parts Management

Quality x Service
Training Systems & Operating Value =
Management Cost x Time x Risk
Improvements
Physical Asset Optimization Adolfo Hitler Huaman Diaz
7
7
 CAPEX OPEX
Risk Investment
Development Operating Costs
f(t) Costs Costs

Building, Installation & Commissioning

Acquisition CMC + IOP + EI
Cost of Low Reliability = Risk
Design

Operating Costs + Planned Disposal

Maintenance
Research

Today Cost
At Working (Years)

8
8
PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS
Availability Utilization Reliability CPH

STRATEGY - > 60 days PLANNING - < 60 days EXECUTION

Application & Operation Preventive Maintenance Preventive Maintenance

- PM Quality PM
Mine Planning Programmed Component Programmed Component
Replacement - PCR Replacement - PCR
Mine Operations
Backlogs Mgmt Backlogs Mgmt
SFMEA
EM - Strategy
Daily Tactics Risk Assessment
FMEA Strategic Planning &
Budgeting

Reliability Engineering Asset Health Mgmt Breakdown

Component Life
OEM Warranty Mgmt Diagnostics
Cycle Cost Mgmt
Lean Maintenance Work-Order
Execution
Efficiency Administration
Continuous
Improvement Health Inspections
FACILITIES MGMT
Equipment Health Data Capture
Facilities
Functional Failures
Maintenance Downtime Top Ten
Mgmt
SHER Policies
Condition Monitoring Maintenance Efficiency

Non Facility Projects

Prognostic Analysis Destructing Work-Order Mgmt
Testing

COST ACCOUNTING C-MORE, Canad 9

Risk Financial 9
CAPEX OPEX Assessment Health
9
9
Reliability & PdM Process

Reliability Engineering

Component Life Cycle

Cost Mgmt SFMEA
Lean Maintenance
Efficiency The first job of your PdM Program:
Continuous
Improvement AHR Identifying how your equipment can fail
Selecting the right PdM strategies and
Equipment Health
Functional Failures DTA technologies to apply to the Physical Assets
Mgmt
Determining the amount of PdM coverage for
Condition Monitoring
your Fleet, Equipment, System, Sub-system, etc.
Prognostic Analysis
Non
Destructing Ranking the criticality of each item of equipment
Testing
Building databases for each PdM Tech
improvement
Determining PdM staffing levels
 2. UPTIME Pyramid of Excellence.-
Tech

Asset
Choosing Management Process

Excellence
People
Work Support
System
Management Management
Essentials Basic Care
Materials Performance
Management Management
Leadership

Strategy People
The Uptime Pyramid of Excellence (Campbell &
Picknell).

11
3.- Tactic Management (Cont.).-
People

R
Tech Process
Coordinate with Operations (Business Focus).

Develop the maintenance strategy for the critical equipment or Bad Actor. Based
on RCM analysis & Tactic Management.
Define a "Interim Corrective Action"

Evaluate the feasibility according to the current strategy (spares, people,

planning window, downtime impact, risk).
Develop and execute the "Action Plan ASAP.

Align with the Core Business (Cost, Risk & Benefits).

Implement a continuous improvement process.

12
 2.- Inspection Decisions:
Optimizing CBM

Dispatch to Maintenance.
Truck HT110 please check TPS for
low power fault

Book Ref:
DISPATCH

Wireless
Download

Real Time VIMS

Event Monitoring

P F curve customized
Realto mobile equipment (CBM)
Time
13
Diagnostics
 5.- Maintenance Costs.-
Division of Maintenance Costs by Origin

17%
7%
8% 5%
Management
Construction
Non Preventable
Operations
32%
31% Maintenance
Design & Engineering

" Sobre el 60% del Costo de Mantenimiento durante

el tiempo de Vida de un equipo, son causados por
Defectos evitables durante el Diseo, Adquisicin,
Instalacin, Operacin y Mantenimiento".
14
5.- Maintenance Costs (real context).-

Cost Opportunities to mobile equipment 15

6.- Critical Failures (Bad Actor).-

1. Hidden Failure.
2. Low Detection Level (Low sensitivity to change).
3. Randomly.
4. Catastrophic Consequences (Cost, Downtime, Productivity).
16
 3.- Strategic Management.-
Optimizing Equipment Maintenance and Replacement Decisions Optimization

Component Inspection Capital Maintenance

Replacement Decisions Equipment Resource
Replacement Requirements
Decisions
Decisions

Maintenance Management System (CMMS, EAM, ERP)

17
C-MORE, Canada
 3.- Tactic Management (Cont.).-
Optimizing Equipment Maintenance and Replacement Decisions Optimization

Best Inspection Economic Life. Worshops

Replacement Component

Resource's Requirement
Preventive: frecuency. Constant Machines.

Capital Replacement
Inspection Decisions
DPD. Profit Annual Right Sizing
Maximization Utilization. Equipment.
Replace
Availability Varying
Only Maximization. Annual Lease / Buy
Failure. Inspection Utilization.
Constant Intervals. Technological
Interval. FFIs. Improvement.
Age - Based Condition - Repair vs
Spare Parts Based Replace
Provisioning Maintenance.
Repairable Blended Health,
Monitoring & Age
Systems. Replacement.

Probability Stochastic Time Queing

& Processes (CBM Value of Theory
Statistics Optimization) Money Simulation

Maintenance Management System (CMMS, EAM, ERP)

18
C-MORE, Canada
 6.- Optimizing Equipment Maintenance:
Fix it after it Replacement Equipment.-
Reactive Breaks: Overtime
Heroes

Preventive Maintain before

(PM) it Breaks

$ Identify and correct

Pdm /
Condition specific problems,
Based (CBM) before something Breaks

Eliminate problems,
Proactive eliminate source of
"Para alcanzar una mxima (PROACT) Breakage
efectividad y un costo ptimo las
Organizaciones deben esforzarse para
ir hacia el enfoque Proactivo Identify and eliminate
manejado por confiabilidad; Reliability causes of failure;
Driven minimize the need for
rpidamente como sea posible"
Maintenance

e 19
 7.- Reliability Modeling, Prediction, Lifetime Analysis Probability
Approach.-
PDF

h(t)
f(t) MTTF

y=f(x) Reactive Focus

y(x)
Proactive Focus
Cost
t
uom Risk
x Benefits
Key Variable.
Studying variation.
Continuous.
Measurable.
Accuracy.
Sensitivity on time. 20
 6.- Reliability Analysis (PDF).-
Distribution Plot
Weibull, Shape=1.7, Scale=5648, Thresh=0
2010
MTTF = 5,030 Business Objective: 16,000
Software Ref:
0.00014

0.00012

0.00010 = 1.7 (Wear out)

Density

0.00008

0.00006

0.00004

0.00002 63.2% 36.8%

0.00000
0 = 5,647
X = Bearing Hours

Findings:
The MTTF to Con Rod Bearings Fail" is less than the Business
Objective (PCR).
High probability of failures.
PCR : Programed Component Replacement
21
6.- Risk Management: Reliability Analysis (four major
components of reliability).-
Distribution Overview Plot for Bearings Hours_20110518
LSXY Estimates-Complete Data
P robability Density F unction Weibull Failure Mode
0.00010 Erosion Cavitation
90 Layer separation & Fatigue

50
Bearings Erosion

P er cent
Software Ref:
P DF

0.00005 Hours Cavitation (r%)

10 236 99.9
1,557 97.2
2,879 91.2
0.00000
1 4,200 82.5
0 6000 12000 18000 24000 100 1000 10000
Bear ings H our s Bear ings H our s 5,521 72.2
6,842 61.0
S urv iv al F unction H azard F unction 8,164 49.9
100 9,485 39.4
0.00045
10,806 30.1
0.00030 12,127 22.3
P er cent

Rate

50 13,449 16.0
14,770 11.1
0.00015
16,091 7.4
17,412 4.8
0 0.00000
0 6000 12000 18000 24000 0 6000 12000 18000 24000
18,734 3.0
Bear ings H our s Bear ings H our s 20,055 1.8
21,376 1.1
Table of Statistics
22,697 0.6
Shape Scale Corr F C
24,019 0.3
1.94045 9848.63 0.964 29 0
25,340 0.1
1.28012 7686.00 0.975 45 0

Failure Modes:
Erosion Cavitation (wear out).
Layer Separation & Fatigue (randomly).

22
6.- Lineal Regression Statistical Model.-

23
6.- Statistic Domain: Matrix Plot to Accum
Variable vs. Working Age.-

Statistical Model to variables by exception with low sensitivity to change in

mobile equipment
24
 6.- Statistic Domain: Matrix Risk Plot to
eliminate Bad Actors.- Scheduled to
23th May

Scheduled to Matrix Plot of Accumulated Lead vs Bearing Hours_20110511

16th May Scheduled to
2500 (Infant Age) 7000 (Mid Life)
40 24th May
H T129
Scheduled to
H T136
16th May
H T109
30 H T068
H T153
29 Caution
Accumulated Lead

H T053
H T069
H T121
H T146
WT051
20 H T079
H T058 H T118
HH
T145
T117
H T104
H T078
H T154H T049
T125 H T070
HHT131
T062 H T141
H T076
H T134 H T077 H T045 This con rod bearings
H T073 H T103 H T138
H T107H T110
H T133
HHT112
T139
H T137 HHT052
T060 was changed by Mid
10 HH
HT116
T130
T106
H T101H T140
H T071
H T128 H T132 H T057
Life & On condition
H T065
H T102H T044
H T059
H T135 H T127
HH
HT122
T067
T142
HHT108
T048
HHT126
T063 H T072
H T120
H T123
HHT147
T105HHT064
T114
H T144 H T055
H T152
H T124 H T056
H T111HHT054
T074
H
H
HT119
T115
H
T151
T113
H T061 WT047
H
HHT143
T150
T046
H T050
H T075
HHT148
T149
H
HT080
T066
0

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 After of
Bearing Hours HT068
25
 6.- Risk Management: Reliability Analysis by Crystal Ball to
Erosion Cavitation 7K@16K.-

Software Ref:

There are used for:

Uncertainly.
Time series prognostic.
Probabilistic Optimization

26
 6.- Risk Management: Matrix Risk Plot to eliminate the "Bad
Actors" according the Risk (Slope).-.-

Matrix Risk of Accumulated Lead vs Bearing Hours

2879 (86.2%) 6842 (53.5%)
40 = 0.004
R-sq = 71.7%
y = Accumulated Lead

= 0.005
= 0.007
30 = 0.005
29 (Fail)
= 0.005 Software Ref:
= 0.006
20

10

0
0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000
x = Bearing Hours

y = f(x); Accum Lead accord with Con Rod Bearings Hours (normal condition); not by exception.

27
 6.- Risk Management: Slope Analysis Adjusted to
Two Life Cycle for Con Rod Bearings".-

Statistical Model to variables by exception with low sensitivity to change in

mobile equipment

28
6.- Risk Management: Slope Analysis Adjusted with the Real
Context.-
Scatterplot of Accum Lead vs Con Rod Bearings Accum Hours HT069 Scatterplot of Accum Lead vs Con Rod Bearings Accum Hours HT055
Variable 30 Variable

60 Slope:0.006; R-sq= 96.1% Accum Lead HT069 * Con Rod Bearing HT069 Slope:0.001; R-sq= 67.9% Accum Lead HT055 * Con Rod Bearing HT055
Accum Lead HT069_1 * Con Rod Bearing HT069_1 Accum Lead HT055_1 * Con Rod Bearing HT055_1
Accum Lead HT069_2 * Con Rod Bearing HT069_2 Accum Lead HT055_2 * Con Rod Bearing HT055_2

25
50

40 Slope: 0.005; R-sq= 97.3% 20 Slope:0.003; R-sq= 98.6%

Y-Data

Y-Data
30 15

20
10
10
Slope:0.004; R-sq= 95.6% 5 Slope:0.002; R-sq= 95.7%
0
0
0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000
X-Data X-Data

Scatterplot of Accum Lead vs Con Rod Bearings Accum Hours HT144

Variable
50 Slope:0.003; R-sq= 99.1% Accum Lead HT144 * Con Rod Bearing HT144
Accum Lead HT144_1 * Con Rod Bearing HT144_1
Accum Lead HT144_2 * Con Rod Bearing HT144_2 1. Parameters:
40
Slope:0.007; R-sq= 99.3% 1. R-sq > 65%.
30
2. Individuals Trends.
Y-Data

20
3. Risk of Failure
10
Slope:0.006; R-sq= 98.7%
0

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000

X-Data

29
 6.- Risk Management: Matrix Risk Plot to eliminate
Bad Actors.- Has accumulated 5,683
hours, scheduled to Jun
26th

TBD (accident) Scatterplot of Accumulated Lead vs Bearing Hours_20110602

2500 (Infant Age) 7000 (Mid Life)
HT069
60
Has accumulated 6,937
50 HT144
hours, scheduled to Jun
6th
Accumulated Lead

HT054

40
HT068
HT061

30 HT121
HT053
HT055 29 (fail)
WT051

HT117
HT079
20 HT145 HT104HT058 HT078

HT133 HT103 HT045 HT125HT049

HT141 HT070
Has accumulated 9,241
HT073HT077
HT131
HT107 HT110HT112
HT116
HT124HT139
HT106
HT130
HT137
HT102
HT052
HT060
HT071
HT101
HT065
HT140
HT128
HT138 hours scheduled to Jun
10 HT123HT105 HT127
HT120
HT108
HT122
HT067
HT142
HT048
HT064
HT126
HT056
HT059
HT132 HT057
HT063HT044HT072 11th
HT114
HT119
HT115
HT074
HT148
WT047
HT129
HT146
HT075
HT147
HT154
HT109
HT153 HT076
0 R-sq= 75.1%

0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000

Con Rod Bearing Hours
Scheduled
to Jun 03th
30
 6.- Risk Management: Reliability
Analysis_20110623.-
Distribution Overview Plot for Bearings Hours_20110623
ML Estimates-Complete Data
P robability Density F unction Weibull Failure Mode
0.00012 Erosion Cavitation
90 Layer separation & Fatigue

0.00008 50

P er cent
P DF

0.00004 10

0.00000 1
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 100 1000 10000 Software Ref:
Bear ings H our s Bear ings H our s

S urv iv al F unction H azard F unction

100
0.0006
P er cent

0.0004
Rate

50

0.0002

0 0.0000
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 0 5000 10000 15000 20000
Bear ings H our s Bear ings H our s

Table of Statistics
Shape Scale AD* F C
2.22049 8790.94 0.943 44 0
1.61573 7396.52 0.859 45 0

31
 0.00010
90 Layer separation & Fatigue
50

P er cent
P DF 0.00005
10

0.00000
6.- Risk Management: Survival and Hazard Function Analysis.-.-
0 10000 20000
1
100 1000 10000
Bear ings H our s Bear ings H our s

S urv iv al F unction H azard F unction

100

0.0003
P er cent

FM1:Erosion

Rate
50 0.0002

0.0001
Cavitation
0
0 10000 20000
0.0000
0 10000 20000
FM2:Layer Separation
Bear ings H our s Bear ings H our s & Fatigue
Table of Statistics
Shape Scale Corr F C h (; , ) =
.1
1.66230 9079.24 0.963 33 0
1.28012 7686.00 0.975 45 0
1.6
1.5

Where, ,
1.4
1.3

= = Shape. h () 1.2

= = Scale.
1.1

= shape

Statistical Model to variables by exception with low sensitivity to change in
mobile equipment
32
 Detectable Deterioration
Potential Premature
Failure
R (t) Replacement
P Cost Curve
Desired Performance Functional
Failure
Total Failure

F
Time Unexpected
Warning Interval Breakdown
(P F Net)
6.- Risk Management: Matrix Risk Plot adjusted only to Normal
Zone.-

Scatterplot of Accumulated Lead vs Bearing Hours (Monitoring State)

Updated 20110623

2500 (Infant Age)

30 Fits
29 (Caution Level)
Linear
25 Quadratic
Accumulated Lead

20
HT134
15

10 HT135
HT152
HT150
HT143HT151
HT113
HT148
HT075
5 HT118
HT068
HT117
HT065
HT076
HT069
HT129
HT109
HT146
HT149
HT080 R-sq=74.6%
HT053 HT136
0 R-sq=70.6%
The behavior of this
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 equipment is
x=Bearing Hours projecting to the
caution zone

34
Q
6.- Risk Management: Reliability Analysis (PDF) improved.-
Distribution Plot: Layer Separation, Erosion Cavitation
Weibull, Thresh=0
Updated: 20110804
MTTF=7,593 MTTF=8,315
0.00012 Mid Life:7,000 PCR:16,000 Shape Scale
2.1 8573
0.00010 =2.1 2.6 9356 = Shape
0.00008 =2.6
= Characteristic
Density

0.00006 Life
0.00004 63.2% MTTF.
0.00002 63.2% 36.8% Business Objective
0.00000
0 =8,573 =9,356 ICA.
X = Hours

Findings:
The MTTF to "Erosion Cavitation" is making progress
toward the PCR.
The MTTF in addition is covering the Mid Life Strategy.
37
 7.- Statistic Domain: Regression Analysis: "Best Sub
sets" & "PLS" by exceptions.-

PLS Loading Plot: Lead HT134

March to July 2011
0.4
Copper
0.3 PQ
Tin
Potassium

0.2 Sodium
Iron
Software Ref:
Copper
Component 2

0.1

0.0
Silicon Silicon
Soot
-0.1 Aluminum
Kin Visc
Sodium
-0.2
Chrome Iron Oxidation
-0.3 Sulfur
Nitration Soot
Oxidation
-0.4
-0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5
Component 1

Findings:
The loading plot show us that the main predictors variables are:
Iron, Silicon, Soot, Sodium & Cooper.
In another domain, we need to check the Oxidation level (service
accuracy)
38
7.- Statistic Domain: Regression Analysis: "Best Sub
sets" & "PLS" by exceptions.-

Best Subsets Regression: Lead versus Iron, PQ, ... HT103

Response is Lead

P O N
A o x i K Oxidation Level.-
l S t i t i
C C u i S a S d r n This represent the PM
h o m l o s u a a service accuracy
I r p i i d s S l t t V
r o T p n c i i o f i i i
Mallows o P m i e u o u u o u o o s
Vars R-Sq R-Sq(adj) Cp S n Q e n r m n m m t r n n c
1 79.9 79.1 47.8 0.56865 X
1 79.3 78.4 50.0 0.57765 X
2 84.5 83.1 33.9 0.51021 X X
2 83.4 81.9 37.8 0.52829 X X
3 86.9 85.1 27.5 0.47961 X X X
3 86.1 84.2 30.3 0.49376 X X X
4 89.2 87.2 21.5 0.44527 X X X X
4 88.6 86.4 23.6 0.45806 X X X X
5
5
6
91.8
91.3
93.6
89.7
89.1
91.6
14.6
16.3
10.1
0.39854
0.41025
0.35964
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X

X
R sq (adj).
Cp Mallows
6 92.3 89.8 14.9 0.39640 X X X X X X
7 94.4 92.2 9.6 0.34809 X X X X X X X
7 94.0 91.6 11.0 0.35981 X X X X X X X
8 94.9 92.5 9.8 0.34114 X X X X X X X X
8 94.6 92.0 10.9 0.35134 X X X X X X X X
9 95.2 92.6 10.6 0.33918 X X X X X X X X X
9 95.2 92.5 10.6 0.33996 X X X X X X X X X
10 96.2 93.6 9.3 0.31408 X X X X X X X X X X
10 95.8 93.0 10.7 0.32990 X X X X X X X X X X
11 96.4 93.6 10.4 0.31420 X X X X X X X X X X X
11 96.3 93.4 10.9 0.32006 X X X X X X X X X X X
12 96.6 93.5 11.8 0.31707 X X X X X X X X X X X X
12 96.6 93.5 11.8 0.31712 X X X X X X X X X X X X Wear Variables.-
13 96.8 93.3 13.2 0.32197 X X X X X X X X X X X X X
13 96.7 93.2 13.4 0.32473 X X X X X X X X X X X X X This represent main
14 96.8 92.8 15.0 0.33339 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X predictors
39
 7.- Statistic Domain: Regression Analysis: "Best Sub
sets" & "PLS" by exceptions.-

PLS Loading Plot: HT103

0.3
Kin Visc
0.2
Oxidation
Iron
0.1
Chrome
Nitration Copper
Soot
Software Ref: 0.0 Tin Silicon
Component 2

Sulfur
-0.1 Iron
Soot
-0.2
PQ Copper
Sodium
-0.3 Oxidation
-0.4 Sodium Kin Visc
-0.5 Potassium Silicon
Aluminum

-0.6
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4
Component 1

Findings:
The loading plot show us that the main predictors variables are:
Iron, Silicon, Soot, Sodium, Kin Visc & Oxidation
In another domain, we need to check the Oxidation level (service
accuracy)
40
 7.- Deterministic Domain: Matrix Risk Plot &
Prognostic Determination.-
Scatterplot of Accum Lead G vs Con Rod Bear, Accum Lead H vs Con Rod B
HT053, Bronze Bearings
R sq value.
2500 (Infant Age) 7000 (Mid Life)
Lineal Regression
30
29
Variable
Accum Lead Generated * Con Rod Bearing Hours Simulated
Accum Lead HT053 * Con Rod Bearing HT053
Fail Profile
26 26
25 25
24 25
25 23
24

20 20
20 20 20
20 19 Distribution ID Plot for Lead
17
Y-Data

16

15 13 Descriptive Statistics

8 N N* Mean StDev Median Minimum Maximum Skewness Kurtosis

10 7 8 6 0 1.66667 0.516398 2 1 2 -0.968246 -1.875
6 7
6
5
5
5 4
4 Goodness of Fit Test
2

R-sq = 98.4% R-sq = 91.5% Distribution AD P

0 Normal 1.091 <0.005 Software Ref:
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 Exponential 1.642 0.015
Weibull 1.406 <0.010
X-Data Gamma 1.240 <0.005

ML Estimates of Distribution Parameters

Distribution Location Shape Scale Threshold

Random Data. Normal*
Exponential
1.66667 0.51640
1.66667
Wear Profile (Mid Life) Weibull
Gamma
4.60608
10.42504
1.83957
0.15987

> 100 interactions * Scale: Adjusted ML estimate

41
 8. Total Impact due to B. Problems.-
8.1 Summary of all cost in the first year (only 2011)
Summary of Impact Cost:
Control the situation - One time assumed impact: $1022,976.67
Implement the actions - Future impact: $584,193.58

Total Cost of Impact: $1607,170.25

Summary of Benefit Cost:

Clearly avoided catastrophic failure - HT130: $530,610.30
Avoided possible catastrophic failure in progress (11 cases): $3555,841.56

Total Cost of Benefits: $4086,451.86

Difference between Benefit and Impact:

Total Cost to Avoid: $2479,281.61

42
 8. Total Impact due to B. Problems.-
8.2 Summary of all cost in the following years (2012 to up)
Summary of Impact Cost:
Implement the actions - Future impact: $584,193.58

Total Cos of Impact: $584,193.58

Summary of Benefit Cost:

Annual rate of engine catastrophic faulires avoided (8 cases): $2586,066.59

Total Cost of Benefits: $2586,066.59

Difference between Benefit and Impact:

Total Cost to Avoid: $2001,873.01

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Adolfo Hitler Huaman Diaz
General Manager AMBE
adolfo.huaman@ambeconsultora.com

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