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JUDICIARY at
MIDTERM
by SHELDON GOLDMAN,
ELLIOT SLOTNICK,
and SARA SCHIAVONI
Dennis Brack
W
hen Barack of promoting gender, ethnic, and racial office, for the first time in
Obama assumed American history, women
the presidency diversity on the federal bench, including and ethnic minorities who
on January 20, 2009, he two Supreme Court appointments, together constitute a large
inherited a country strug- is counterbalanced by a slow and majority of the population,
gling with an economy on received the large majority
the brink of reprising the problematic nominations process of judicial appointments.
Great Depression of the and partisan obstructionism resulting in But President Obamas
1930s, two middle-eastern relatively small numbers of confirmations. first two years in office
wars, crushing deficits, a were not easy ones. His
lopsided tax policy that ambitious agenda met with
favored the wealthy and deprived the country of badly stiff resistance from a defiant and stubborn Republi-
needed tax revenue, a health care crisis, and myriad can minority in the Senate whose secret holds, threats
other problems. President Obama also inherited a poison- of filibusters, and deft use of Senate procedures were
ous political climate where hyperpartisanship put party
above the public interest and had trumped civility and The authors are very grateful to Senate staff for their invaluable help. In
addition, we benefited from speaking with present and former members of
compromise. the Justice Department and several persons outside of government. Some of
The new president promised a new direction and the those we spoke with requested anonymity and therefore are not identified
electorate gave him not only a decisive endorsement to by Nan name in this article. Among those who generously gave of their time are:
Aron, Danielle Cutrona, Vincent Eng, Curt Levey, and Christopher
pursue that direction and the agenda he had articulated Schroeder. Our thanks to all who spoke with us. Thanks are also due to
in the campaign but also a Congress controlled by Demo- Jeffrey Budziak for transcribing the interviews. We are solely responsible for
errors of fact and interpretation.
crats by large majorities. Part of that agenda, although not 1. Although the 2008 Democratic Party platform had only one paragraph
given much media attention at the time, was to use judi- devoted to the judiciary, it contained the promise: For our Judiciary, we
will select and confirm judges who are men and women of unquestionable
cial appointments to further ethnic and gender diversity talent and character, who firmly respect the rule of law, who listen to and are
on the bench.1 As the data reported in this article clearly respectful of different points of view, and who represent the diversity of America.
(italics added). See 2008 Democratic National Platform, Renewing Ameri-
reveal, at the end of President Obamas first two years in cas Promise, p. 55, available on www.democrats.org/about/party_platform.
While some of the reasons for appeals judges, I think we debated just lacked a sense of urgency in the
for a long time instead of decisions beginning and at various points that had
this, particularly the administra- the effect of slowing down our ability to
tions highest priority, its legisla- being made with a sense of urgency. get names up to the Committee. We got
tive agenda, help to explain what At the trial court level: behind and its very difficult to catch up.
transpired, as one early participant less urgency was placed on home-state
observer of the process opined, Par- senators to finish their slate of district A spokesperson for a liberal lob-
ticularly with some of the courts of court possibilities so the whole process bying organization in the process
A question of ideology
Perhaps equaling the disappoint-
ment over the speed and numbers
of Obama nominees among the
Presidents base supporters was a
generalized sense that, while they
were of high quality, they were
relatively moderate in their views
on the issues that so highly divided
the country and that, jurispruden-
tially, they would not be an effec-
tive counterbalance to the W. Bush
Ideology is, of course, somewhat in the eyes of the cohort already on the bench in large
beholder and, to Danielle Cutrona, Minority Chief numbers.
Counsel for Nominations, Obama was following Ideology is, of course, somewhat
a progressive, liberal view. in the eyes of the beholder and,
to Danielle Cutrona, Minority Chief
Counsel for Nominations, Obama
was following a progressive, liberal
confirmed that, even today, you nominees. I think in many instances view of the Constitution and the law
have Democratic senators, two the nominees arent there. and has chosen judges that are in that
Democratic senator states where While these points are all well vein. A somewhat softer assessment
they havent submitted names for taken, and its hard to have that of Obamas choices, however, was
the district courts....I think the obstruction message...when you offered by Curt Levey, head of the
White House Counsel would love to dont have that many nominees conservative Committee for Justice,
nominate or roll out a number of out there to begin with, it remains a leading interest group opposing
President Obama
had a working
list of about 40
names and Judge
Sonia Sotomayor
was at the top
of that list.
Dennis Brack
You stop people the way you stop with Senator Sessions has been fine.... When viewing the district court
Chatigny and Liu, and McConnell and The Democratic staff working on the
nominations have done a great job
No votes, another majority Judi-
Chen and Butler by having at least a
few red state Democrats that the leader working with the Republican staff. ciary Committee aide commented:
isnt sure they can depend on, who They disagree, but they get along. And A couple of them we know why. Theyve
actually go to the leader, [or] go to the that hasnt been a source of difficulty, said why. We think its totally wrong,
President and say, Dont put me in a of controversy, whereas back in the day but there have been a couple of these
position of voting for this. Thats how when we had other Chairmen, there that have come out with party line
you do it. You dont do it by actually fili- was often a procedural irregularity that votes with no explanation. We show
bustering....You stop people by having was so glaring, that it was, itself, part of up expecting them to be reported out
dissension in the Presidents party.... the problem. unanimously. Were actually surprised
Thats part of what our job is. To raise when the no votes start coming in....
the visibility of a bad nominee enough Senator Sessions Minority Chief
We have to look back at the questions
that red and purple state Democrats Counsel for Nominations Danielle from the record to figure out what is
begin to feel some heat. Cutrona was in fundamental agree- the basis....Its like reading tea leaves.
ment with this assessment:
The magnitude of this change
Confirmation: I have actually had really good rela- appears to have been substantial.
Committee processes tionships [with the majority staff] and
According to Judiciary Committee
During the dysfunctional judicial weve gotten along really well....Were
at a huge disadvantage in votes on the data, of the approximately 2100 Dis-
selection confirmation processes of committee so we really dont have a trict Court nominees processed since
the W. Bush and Clinton administra- choice but to cooperate....Where we 1945, only five were reported out on
tions, acrimony and divisiveness, as can cooperate, why not cooperate? It a strict party line vote, with four of
well as rule changes and manipula- just fosters good faith.
the five occurring during the 111th
tions, prevailed across all phases of Cooperation, of course, can take Congress.
Senate activity. In contrast, it is a place in degree and kind, and it would Danielle Cutrona took strong
fair generalization to note that the be a vast overstatement to suggest that exception to any notion that dis-
Senate Judiciary Committee facets the minority members on the com- trict nominees should be given a
of the processes during the 111th mittee simply went along with the pass from committee scrutiny and
Congress offered, at least on the administrations picks. To the con- she strongly articulated and shared
surface, a picture of relative calm. trary, there was a pattern of regularized Senator Sessions viewpoint:
The Committee did its job, with the and systematic opposition that had an Each nominee is assessed on his or her
greatest obstruction and delay of impact on the processing of virtually own merits regardless of the position
Obama nominees occurring at the all Obama nominees, but that impact in the court system to which they are
floor stages of confirmation. Behind could be seen, in most instances, in nominated because this is a lifetime
such a generalization are layers of processing delay, not definitive and appointment.... They [district court
nuance that shaped both committee judges] deal with serious issues. They
resolute obstruction save for a handful deal with Proposition 8, they deal with
and floor activity and, at times, the of identifiable nominees, most promi- dont ask, dont tell, they deal with
lack thereof. As noted by a senior nently Goodwin Liu. terrorism cases, health care, and thats
Judiciary Committee staff member: One of the areas of particular my bosss view of it....When President
Bush was in power and you didnt want
I think things ran relatively...smoothly. concern to the Judiciary Committee
to do this and you just rubber stamped
Weve had some success at the commit- majority was the manner in which District Court nominees, thats your
tee level. The flooris much more
scrutiny was taking place at the dis- problem.
a function of the caucus leadership
than any individual senator...During trict court level. For a staff aide
to a senior Judiciary Committee Whether the focus was on district
the Clinton years I can remember
or circuit courts, for its part, the
diego radzinschi
The Presidents first selection, David Hamilton, successfully
was seated on the Seventh Circuit Court of Appeals.
Goodwin Liu (right) was not confirmed.
282
282 Judicature Volume
Judicature Volume 94,
94, Number
Number 66 May-June
May-June 2011
2011
with its senators, they would block his nominees. the first Bush circuit picks. As Nan Aron put it:
So you could argue that the President reads that letter and says, There has been very little recruitment of individuals who can be
Alright, well heres my first pick. Its one with the support of counters to the Posners, the Easterbrooks on these Circuits. The
the senior longest serving Republican Senator, Dick Lugar. If it only nominee that fits in that category is Goodwin Liu.
meets your criteria for doing this, Im going to make that pick
as a symbol of working with you. Of showing a different way Indeed, as one long-term participant observer of judi-
forward on this. And Im also not waiting until I have a slate of cial selection politics concluded, Liu was kind of another
nine or ten. Im doing the one that Ive got first and ready. And generations academic or intellectual hero....They worship
we say Great, what a good pick. This should be an easy one to him over at the American Constitution Society.
set the tone with. So they say Were going to filibuster if were
not consulted. They are consulted and they filibuster anyway. For some, in addition to the comparison to Estrada,
another appropriate analogue to the Liu nomination was
From the perspective of Danielle Cutrona, Judiciary W. Bushs choice of conservative law professor Michael
Committee Minority Chief Counsel for Nominations, a McConnell. As a Committee aide put it, like McConnell
different sort of signal was being sent by the President. before him, Liu should not be viewed as the worst of
There were other nominees that were left at the end of President the worst by the opposition but, rather, note should be
Bushs term that President Obama could have renominated, taken of his intellectual strength and bipartisan support,
extended an olive branch, much like President Bush did at the particularly among legal academicians, as had been the
beginning of his term and he didnt do it. And I think that sends case for McConnell. Characterizing Liu on a one to ten
a signal....If they really thought he was a moderate, bipartisan
consensus pick then theyre more out of touch than I thought scale, he was:
they were. There was so much in his record that was objection- not on the eights or nines, not the Janice Rogers Browns but
able to so many people. the Michael McConnells. The ones that did get through....Michael
McConnell...is almost the exact analogue to Goodwin Liu. He
Interestingly, Cutronas characterization of the Ham- wasnt a nominee that a Democratic president would have picked.
ilton nomination did not fly with Curt Levey, a like But it was one that got the right kind of deference.
minded conservative opponent of the President:
The logic of a Liu nomination for the President can
I think we all sort of agree now, to be honest, that he wasnt that be easily stated as it was by a senior Judiciary Committee
objectionable any more than he was first. I think Obama thought
he was doing something smart by nominating him first, but cer- staff member:
tainly for Hamilton, however, it wasnt a good thing. He does and did have the support of both his home state sena-
tors. He is for a vacancy from his own state. He does have tre-
mendous credentials. He is being nominated to be a judge on
The Liu nomination the 9th circuit from California. You can vote against him. But its
If Hamiltons problems resulted from being first, Goodwin hard to say that this was somehow so out of the ordinary that it
Lius came about because of being highly celebrated and should create a backlash of some sort.
highly anticipated, both by the left that revered him and
The aide proceeded to suggest how a nomination of
by the conservative right who saw in him a cause celebre,
this type would have been handled back in the day
a nominee to oppose as strongly as, many years earlier,
before judicial selection politics became so highly parti-
the Democrats had opposed W. Bush nominee Miguel
san and divisive:
Estrada (one of the first 11) for a seat on the D.C. Circuit
Court of Appeals. Like Estrada, Liu was seen as an ethnic The two leaders would have said to each other, Okay, my guys
like Goodwin...most of your guys dont....How much time do you
nominee whose star could rise all the way to the Supreme
need? Do you want six hours? Do you want ten hours? Oh, no,
Court if he were successful in attaining this appellate we have to filibuster him. Okay, well can we take these three days
judgeship. The parallels to Estrada were not lost on the then, and well talk about him for awhile. But then if he gets sixty
Asian American Justice Centers Vincent Eng: we can vote on him afterHow much more time do we need?
And there would have been some work out, some accommoda-
When is the first Asian American going to be on the [Supreme tion, instead of a no, nay, never, not on your life....Were going
Court] bench?....The list of potential nominees is still very to use every technique we can to send it back and were going
thin....Obviously, individuals like Miguel Estrada, people feel to be filibustering every one up to that one to prevent from ever
that...Look at his age, this is someone that could be on the getting to that one. I mean if they truly oppose the guy and
Supreme Court. And we know thereve been no Asian Ameri- think he is not qualified to be a judge, stand up on the Senate
cans there. Goodwin has all those years, so....Miguel Estrada was floor and say why not. And vote no. Vote no. I have seen no
the classic example of where Goodwin is. willingness to do that.
The reasons the Obama base longed for a Liu nomina- What did happen was, of course, quite different. A
tion went well beyond his ethnicity and to the core of his hearing was delayed by Chairman Leahy two times and,
judicial philosophy, particularly in a setting where the when held, included multiple rounds of questioning and
administrations choices to date could best be character- 500 written follow-ups:
ized as moderate. Remarking on how Liu would differ
Then they voted the way they voted, which is their right. And
from the norm, a senior Democratic Judiciary Com-
then they insisted that the nomination be sent back to the Presi-
mittee aide commented that the President, has stayed dent. It came up again. It was called up again in committee.
away from ideological picks. Goodwin Liu is...the only They voted again.
example you could find who is somewhat akin to any of
People make mistakes....To react in this crazy, reactive way...only On May 25, 2011, Goodwin Liu requested that Presi-
hurt themselves....All of a sudden, boom, people from on high dent Obama withdraw his nomination. g
are rearranging [Schroeders] office...and the staffing of one of
the two critical functions of the office.
diego radzinschi
However, the starkest comparison across presidential
administrations is for Asian Americans. In his first two
years in office, Obama appointed six Asian Americans
to the federal bench, which totals in absolute numbers
more than any other president during an entire presi-
dency. These appointees accounted for nearly 10 percent
of those confirmed during the 111th Congress, which
when compared over time, is truly remarkable.
Despite Obamas attention to appointing diverse
judges, the relative impact of the new set of appointees
on the overall diversity of the federal bench is fairly small.
The percentage of nontraditional judges in active service
(when not double counting women who also belong to
a racial minority group) was 38.8 percent when Obama
took office and totaled 39.5 percent at the end of the
111th Congress. This represents an increase of only 1.8
Albert Diaz became the first Hispanic American percent during Obamas first two years in office. (See
to serve on the Fourth Circuit. Table 1) This slight increase is even more puzzling when
compared to the 36.2 percent increase after Clintons
Data on 2010 general population compiled from the Statistical Abstract found at: http://www.census.gov/compendia/statab
* Excluding Puerto Rico
Americans in 9 states. If Obamas historic record of National Bar Association was instrumental with Justice
appointing Asian Americans to the bench continues, this Sotomayors nomination and subsequent confirmation.
comparison may be noteworthy. In addition to the White House and home-state sena-
tors readily listening to outside groups, there is simply a
Influencing factors larger pool of diverse candidates, and they now have the
The diversity of Obamas judicial appointees gained assistance of dedicated interest groups in getting their
widespread media attention. While ultimately it is the names to the right people. Eng noted, for example, the
Presidents responsibility to nominate judges, we would work of his organization, to create the pipeline of indi-
be remiss not to acknowledge factors both within and viduals that would be competitive candidates has borne
outside of his control, which assisted the selection of some fruit. If you look at the Asian-American popula-
diverse candidates. First, comparing Obamas adminis- tion growth ...its a growing population, more and more
tration to past administrations, Nan Aron, head of the individuals are...breaking the mold of being engineers
liberal group Alliance for Justice, noted, there is now a and doctors. More are going to law school and so you
much more active engagement by a diverse number of have a critical mass of individuals who are in the right
groups. For instance, in addition to organizations like age group, the right education, and now the qualifica-
the NAACP Legal Defense Fund, now there is a very tions. So I think it works out very well for the community.
active engagement by Latino organizations as well as You had an administration that was friendly and open to
Asian American ones. These outside interest groups are receiving names. Going forward, the continued engage-
bringing worthy candidates to the attention of the White ment of outside interest groups who have the ear of the
House, and, in the case of district court nominees, home- White House and connections to senators will certainly
state senators. As Vincent Eng of the Asian American ensure that diversity is kept at the forefront of the nomi-
Justice Center observed, The White House is open, they nation process.
ask for names and when they ask for names, they look Overall, the sentiments of Assistant Attorney General
at them. And I think that certain groups have been very Christopher Schroeder sum up the Obama nomination
successful. I think the more successful groups are the strategy at midterm: I think overall the effort to expand
bar associations that have submitted names to the White the biographies of people on the bench has been a very
House. important concern of his administration Indeed, they
For example, the National Asian Pacific American Bar have pursued it and quite successfully. g
Association helped shepherd the successful confirmation
of 6 Asian Americans to the bench and the Hispanic
111th Democrat Obama (Democrat) 0.6500 8. Note that President Obama on July 14,
(2009-10) 2010, nominated Marco Hernandez to fill a
vacancy on the Oregon federal district court
The Index is only for nominations to courts of appeals of general jurisdiction. This means that the U.S. Court of bench. Hernandez had first been nominated by
Appeals for the Federal Circuit is excluded. The Index for the 107th Congress excludes the nominations made by President W. Bush two years earlier on July 23,
President Clinton shortly before leaving office that were subsequently withdrawn by President Bush. 2008. Judge Hernandez was eventually unani-
mously confirmed on February 7, 2011. Press
Index is calculated as the number of nominations unconfirmed plus the number of nominations that took more reports did not identify him as identified with
than 180 days from nomination to confirmation. It ranges from 0.0000, which indicates the complete absence of any political party. But his having been backed
obstruction and/or delay, to 1.0000, which indicates complete obstruction and/or delay. Nominations made after July strongly by then Senator Gordon Smith and
1 of the second session of each Congress are excluded from the Index. then nominated by the W. Bush administration
has led some to speculate that he might be a
Republican identifier.
Presidents political party, which has, for those not identified with any The proportion of appointees
for the most part, remained constant political party. Interestingly, not with a record of some form of pre-
throughout American history. The one Republican identifier, as best as vious political activism was about
appointees also had the largest pro- could be determined, was appointed the same as that of the appointees
portion of all five administrations to the district bench.8 of the previous two administrations.
The Obama, W. Bush, and Clinton appointees had a net worth in excess John Roberts and his predecessor
administrations appointed fewer with of one million dollars, a new record. William Rehnquist that judicial sala-
a record of partisan activism than the The increasing proportion of million- ries are too low and as a result are
Bush 1 and Reagan administrations. aires appointed to the bench under- depriving the nation of legal talent
Almost two-thirds of the scores the warnings of Chief Justice who simply cannot financially afford
to ascend the bench. Relatively low Wisconsin) the proportion of Obama One-third of the appointees were
federal judicial pay scales can be appointees with a prestige legal edu- women, which was about the same as
expected to skew the judiciaries to cation rises to about 45 percent. This Clintons record and higher than
those with greater wealth. compares to about 31 percent of the the 1 out of 4 record for W. Bushs
Continuing the trend of recent W. Bush appointees and 38 percent presidency although his was the best
administrations is the growing pro- of the Clinton appointees with a pres- gender diversity record of all Repub-
fessionalization of the bench. A clear tige legal education. lican presidents.
majority of Obama appointees were The average age at time of nomi- One-third were African Ameri-
members of the judiciary at the time nation for the Obama appointees can, the highest proportion for all
of their appointment to the federal was slightly lower than that of the five administrations.
district court bench. This trend also appointees of George W. Bush. The The Obama appointees had the
included promotion from within the average age of appointees to the dis- highest proportion of all five admin-
federal judiciary, specifically the ele- trict courts over the past 20 years has istrations of those who were serving
vation of U.S. magistrate judges and been between about 48 and 50. as judges at the time of their appoint-
even on occasion U.S. bankruptcy ment. Four out of five were judges,
judges. The trend began with Presi- Appeals court appointees also the figure for those with judicial
dent Ford appointing 8 percent from President Obama nominated 22 to experience.
these positions, climbed to Bush 1s the appeals courts of general jurisdic- About three out of four Obama
11 percent, Clintons 12 percent, and tion, of whom 15 were confirmed appointees also had prosecutorial
W. Bushs close to 17 percent. The (several are profiled in Some notable experience, a considerably higher
proportion of Obama appointees Obama appointees, p. 266). Table 5 proportion than those for the appoin-
elevated from the U.S. magistrate offers a comparison of the Obama tees of the four previous presidents.
position was close to 23 percent. appointees to those of his four imme- The Obama appointees had
The proportion of Obama diate predecessors in office. Because the lowest proportion of those with
appointees with prosecutorial expe- of the relatively few Obama appoin- neither judicial nor prosecutorial
rience was approximately the same tees, caution must be taken when con- experience. Arguably, the Obama
as that of the W. Bush appointees. sidering percentage differences with appointees had the strongest profes-
But continuing the trend begun by previous administrations. Among the sional credentials of all five adminis-
the Carter administration, there was more striking findings: trations. Two out of three received
a larger proportion of appointees Just as with the district court the highest ABA rating, a propor-
with judicial than with prosecutorial appointees, Obamas appeals court tion lower than that of the Clinton
experience. appointees were the most diverse in appointees which remains a modern
The proportion of Obama terms of gender and race/ethnic- record.
appointees with an Ivy League law ity in history. Close to 3 out of 4 For the first time since the
school education was the highest were nontraditional. Of the 7 uncon- Reagan administration, no one from
for all five administrations. If pres- firmed nominees, 6 were nontradi- the major political party not control-
tige non-Ivy law schools are included tional. Considering all nominees to ling the White House was appointed.
(among them Duke, Georgetown, appeals courts, 17 of 22 (over 3 out Republican George W. Bush named
Northwestern, Stanford, Virginia, and of 4) were nontraditional. four Democrats to the appeals courts.
*Percentage of total number of appointees to lifetime judgeships on courts of general jurisdiction (U.S. district courts, U.S. appeals courts, and U.S. Supreme Court).
** These numbers do not double count appointees who fall into more than one nontraditional category.
Democrat Barack Obama named no larger than the proportion for the speculate about the future including
Republican. Would nominating one Reagan and Bush 1 appointees. what we might expect were there to
or more Republicans have smoothed be a Supreme Court vacancy to fill.
the way for a less contentious con- The emerging (More detailed consideration is in
firmation process? Probably not, as Obama judiciary Supreme Court nominations, page
naming some Democrats did not Gender and ethnic diversity, as we 274) Even though at the start of the
lessen the contentiousness surround- have seen earlier and whose impact 112th Congress, the Senate voted
ing W. Bushs nominees. on the judiciary is discussed in to end the practice of secret holds,
The proportion of the Obama Diversity on the bench (p. 288), there still remained the obstacle of
appointees with a record of past is the hallmark of the emerging the necessity of unanimous consent
party activism was the lowest for all Obama judiciary. Table 6 aggregates to proceed to a vote without having
five administrations. the diversity numbers and propor- to set aside 30 hours of debate for
Just as with the district court tions for the lifetime appointments each nominee. And the filibuster
appointees, a record proportion of on the three major federal courts of remains unchanged.
appeals court appointees had a net general jurisdiction since the Frank- As of this writing confirmations
worth in excess of one million dollars. lin Roosevelt administration named have occurred in drips and drabs.
Obamas appointees on average the first nontraditional federal judge If going into the 2012 presidential
were the oldest of all five administra- (Florence Allen to the U.S. Court of election the President looks par-
tions with an average age of 53.7. Appeals for the Sixth Circuit). The ticularly vulnerable, it is likely that
About one in four had an Ivy table shows the evolution of token Republicans will seek to halt the
League law school education; a diversity to the historic proportions confirmation process with the hope
proportion similar to that for the of the Obama administration. It that a Republican president would
appointees of the four previous is hard to imagine any backtrack- be able to fill those positions. If this
administrations. If we include those ing on diversity by the Obama were to occur, we can fully expect
who graduated from such prestige administration. Democrats to exact payback as the
non-Ivy law schools as New York Given the uncertainties and con- cycle continues. With the indepen-
University and Vanderbilt, the pro- tentiousness of American politics, dence and integrity of the judicial
portion of those with a prestige legal particularly in light of the congres- branch of government at stake, it
education was about 47 percent. sional election of 2010 where the is a fair question to ask, when will
The proportion of W. Bush appoin- Democrats suffered significant losses the Senate leadership take decisive
tees with a prestige legal education (losing control of the House of Rep- steps to end this ongoing confirma-
was over 50 percent, similar to the resentatives and losing strength in tion crisis?
Clinton appointees but somewhat the Senate), it is a challenge to
W hat then, does the future hold at hand. Whether the Democrats will the countrys most feared villain-
for the Obama judicial selection press that advantage, according to ous adversary, Osama Bin Laden,
process and its prospects for doing Levey, was an open question. There with all of its implications for the
better in the second half of the will be a lot of fights and, again, I Presidents popularity and stature
administrations first term, the 112th dont get a sense he has any more on the national and international
Congress? For the OLPs Christo- stomach on the social issues than he stage. At the time of this writing,
pher Schroeder, the glass is both half had before. early June, 2011, we may be begin-
empty and half full. The good news If Leveys guess is right, this will ning to see signs of which direction
is that there will be more time to not sit well with the Presidents base- the tea leaves of judicial selection
spend on nominations. The bad news supporting groups such as the Alli- politics will fall. This may include, it
is that it will be harder to get nomina- ance for Justice. According to Nan appears, a more engaged presidency
tions through. Aron: in the politics of judicial selection
With the Spring of 2012 looming I dont think he has a choice. If he with over 50 pending nominees, the
as the time when the curtain for con- wants to win re-election he has to step majority of whom are, of course,
up to the plate, not only on this, but on resubmissions of failed nominations
firming judges is likely to come down
jobs. He has to put on his boxing gloves
in anticipation of the presidential from the 111th Congress.
and fight. If he doesnt, hes gone.
election, Schroeder notes that, I It is noteworthy, however, that
dont know what the incentive is for Beyond the imperatives of elec- 24 nominees have already been
the opposition to change its tactics toral politics, Aron sees ample reason confirmed in the 112th Congress,
for the 112th Congress. Danielle for the judges issue to gain leverage: approximately 40 percent of the
Cutrona, Minority Chief Counsel There could be a stepped up national total number of confirmations in the
for Nominations for ranking Senate debate on judicial nominees because, 111th, including a number for whom
Republican on the Judiciary Com- in effect, this could be one of the successful cloture was obtained.
few items Democrats can take up with Nevertheless, when the controver-
mittee Jefferson Sessions, agreed
Obama taking a less active role leg-
noting: sial Goodwin Liu nomination was
islatively there could be opportuni-
ties....This issue will become more high brought to the Senate floor for a
I just cant imagine that it wont be a
priority for the administration...with profile as the Obama legislative agenda cloture vote, it was soundly defeated,
all the outcries from the groups about slows down, number one. Number two, with only one Republican voting to
the pace and whatnot. I just cannot if...the numbers continue to pile up end debate and one Democrat voting
imagine that there wont be a flood of in terms of vacancies and pending
to uphold the filibuster. Thus, the
nominations in the next Congress. nominees, the Senate will be forced to
hold votes, whether they like it or not. paceof nominations may increase in
Cutrona added, however, I just Theyll have to schedule votes. the 112th Congress, at least through
cant imagine there would be a early 2012, while there still remains
Offering another perspective, the time to gain confirmation before
huge change in the scrutiny during
Asian American Justice Centers the window of opportunity comes
Senator Charles Grassleys watch as
Vincent Eng noted the difficulties of down on the congressional session.
ranking minority member with pro-
responding to the absence of over- Nevertheless, it remains the case
portionately higher Committee and
whelming legislative priorities. Now that for those nominees to the left
Senate Republican strength.
theres multiple goals and trying to of some ill-defined metric of mod-
Curt Levey saw a similar impetus
re-shift and reorganize around that eration, the road to confirmation
for the President acting aggressively,
takes time. Eng further observed and, perhaps, even nomination will
yet was uncertain whether he would,
that not responding successfully, remain a difficult one to travel.
given his seeming distaste for the
with respect to putting their Predicting the future of nomina-
likely engagement:
resources behind the nominees, will tion and confirmation politics is, of
One possibility is that he will feel like lead them to just fade away, with course, as difficult an enterprise as
he has to, especially with the presi- broadly damaging consequences for
dential election coming up...need to understanding its past. Several sce-
energize the base....Maybe they will
the president: narios suggest themselves, however,
convince themselves that as long as I think it...resonates poorly for world for consideration. In Assistant Attor-
we are going to have low confirmation politics if you have a president who is ney General Schroeders view, there
rates, we might as well nominate some being rolled on his nominations which
really bad guys, more really bad guys.
is little reason for the process to get
is, for most countries...What is that?
And I guess there is something to be Can this president be rolled on other appreciably better unless there is
said for that. things as well?....I think when you a perception that obstruction and
look at the greater context, getting delay exacts a price. According to