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Inflation
1.1 Introduction
During World War II, you could buy a loaf of bread for $0.15, a new car for less than $1,000 and
an average house for around $5,000. In the twenty-first century, bread, cars, houses and just
about everything else cost more. A lot more. Clearly, weve experienced a significant amount of
inflation over the last 60 years.
When inflation surged to double-digit levels in the mid- to late-1970s, Americans declared it
public enemy No.1. Since then, public anxiety has abated along with inflation, but people remain
fearful of inflation, even at the minimal levels weve seen over the past few years. Although its
common knowledge that prices go up over time, the general population doesnt understand the
forces behind inflation.
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1.4 Costs of Inflation
Almost everyone thinks inflation is evil, but it isnt necessarily so. Inflation affects different
people in different ways. It also depends on whether inflation is anticipated or unanticipated. If
the inflation rate corresponds to what the majority of people are expecting (anticipated inflation),
then we can compensate and the cost isnt high. For example, banks can vary their interest rates
and workers can negotiate contracts that include automatic wage hikes as the price level goes up.
Problems arise when there is unanticipated inflation:
Creditors lose and debtors gain if the lender does not anticipate inflation correctly. For
those who borrow, this is similar to getting an interest-free loan.
Uncertainty about what will happen next makes corporations and consumers less likely to
spend. This hurts economic output in the long run.
People living off a fixed-income, such as retirees, see a decline in their purchasing power
and, consequently, their standard of living.
The entire economy must absorb re-pricing costs (menu costs) as price lists, labels,
menus and more have to be updated.
If the inflation rate is greater than that of other countries, domestic products become less
competitive.
People like to complain about prices going up, but they often ignore the fact that wages should
be rising as well. The question shouldnt be whether inflation is rising, but whether its rising at a
quicker pace than your wages.
Finally, inflation is a sign that an economy is growing. In some situations, little inflation (or even
deflation) can be just as bad as high inflation. The lack of inflation may be an indication that the
economy is weakening. As you can see, its not so easy to label inflation as either good or bad
it depends on the overall economy as well as your personal situation.
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policies to help keep inflation at bay. The BB hiked last week the cash reserve requirement
(CRR) for banks. Further squeeze in the statutory liquidity reserve (SLR) cannot be ruled out.
For the central bank, this is otherwise a rational course of action.
Yet then, the question remains whether application of monetary policies like the above in a
clinical fashion, would alone be effective in the Bangladesh context. For, the economy of this
country does not operate on a framework of textbook theories that say that inflation reflected in
rising prices of goods and services has too intimate a relationship with increased money supply
that creates demand which cannot be met under conditions of scarcity of existing stocks of goods
and services. Thus, prices are driven up. If it were so easy to control the effects of what is
understood as inflation rising prices and charges in the Bangladesh situation, then BBs
monetary policies of limiting inflation through monetary tools would have earlier paid off well.
On its part, the BB has otherwise been neither too tight-fisted in reducing money supply to
ensure that legitimate needs of credits could be met for the economys expansion nor too
reckless by being liberal in allowing the growth of money. It has been pursuing balanced
monetary policies over the years. But that has not paid the desired dividends; tighter policies
have not proved to be effective. Factors at work need to be traced for this. Such factors are not
all within the bounds of rational economic theories. Price escalations of commodities or hiking
up charges of services in many cases and rather on a regular basis are largely considered to
be caused by simple profiteering instincts, market imperfections of diverse sorts, lack of timely
policy-related actions or interventions on the part of the government etc. There are a large
number of essential commodities over the selling of which effective price monitoring,
appropriate policies to encourage supply-side responses and other accompanying measures from
the side of the government, have not been in place in a proper form and setting.
In this backdrop, the BB will have to be more agile and should act promptly even in the realm of
the supervision of the monetary affairs of the country. For instance, credible reports have
appeared in the media to the effect that a great deal of money, lent out from the banks over
nearly the last one year or more, have not gone into productive ventures or into industrialization
but to the countrys volatile stock market. In this situation, it is certainly no wonder that
inflationary pressure have been running strong.
Higher inflation does not, of course, signal proper economic management. The bringing down of
the rate of inflation is tantamount to removing maladies in the country such as institutional
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weaknesses, lack of expected improvements in promoting good governance, irregularities, funds
misappropriated or not utilized or utilized for wrong purposes, not increasing production and
even misdirected subsidies in some cases. Both economic and non-economic factors are involved
here. Hence, these all need to be properly addressed, if inflationary pressures are to be effectively
tamed.
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Chapter Two
Inflation and Its Effect on Bangladesh
7 BD Inflation Rate
6
Percentage Of Inflation Rate,%
0
Jul'14 Nov'14 Apr'15 Sep,15 Feb'16 Jun'16
Time Scale
Figure 2.1: Inflation Rate of Bangladesh (Time scale vs Percentage)
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Actual Previous Highest Lowesr Dates Unit Frequency
In Bangladesh, the most important categories in the consumer price index are food, non-
alcoholic beverages and tobacco (59 percent of the total weight) and gross rent, fuel and lighting
(16.9 percent). The index also includes: clothing and footwear (6.9 percent); transport and
communication (4.2 percent), recreation, entertainment, education & cultural services (4.1
percent); miscellaneous goods and services (3.6 percent); medical care and health expenses (2.8
percent) and furnishing (2.7 percent). This provides the latest reported value for - Bangladesh
Inflation Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term
prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news. Bangladesh Inflation Rate - actual
data, historical chart and calendar of releases - was last updated on August of 2016.
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2.2 Effect on the Economy:
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of the currency. The devaluation may restore exports, but at the cost of making imports more
expensive, thus increasing inflation again! It is because inflation erodes international
competitiveness that most governments make controlling inflation the central pillar of their
economic policy.
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being made before.) The two related effects are known as the Mundell-Tobin effect. Unless the
economy is already overinvesting according to models of economic growth theory, that extra
investment resulting from the effect would be seen as positive.
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Chapter Three
Concluding Remarks
3.1 Conclusion
This present the very recent insight of Bangladesh - inflation and its effects. It is clear that
inflation isnt intrinsically good or bad. Like so many things in life, the impact of inflation
depends on present situation.
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