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In this workshop we review applications of queueing theory as well as the first step of the 4-step

planning process, Trip Generation.

Queueing Theory

As we learnt in the lecture, queueing theory is the mathematical study of queues (waiting in line). The

theory offers an opportunity to mathematically model a variety of scenarios which could be as simple

as depicting how people wait in a line to be served by a cashier at a supermarket or from a road

transport perspective, understanding how vehicles arrive and traverse through a signalised

intersection. Applications of queueing theory can provide estimates for the waiting times and lengths

of queues that manifest.

Question 1:

Deterministic Queueing: Arrival and departure Curves

Tickets for a major sporting event go on sale 10am. Purchasers begin to arrive at 9am. Between 9am

and 10am they arrive at a rate of 60 persons per hour. Between 10am and noon ticket purchasers

arrive at the rate of 180 persons per hour and from noon to 4pm when tickets are sold out, they arrive

at 120 persons per hour. Tickets are sold at the rate of 2 per minute from 10am to 4pm. At 4pm

anyone still waiting in line will be told that there are no more tickets available.

a) Sketch the cumulative arrival and departure curves of ticket purchasers.

b) When does the queue begin to form?

c) When is the best time to arrive in terms of the shortest wait time? What is the length of the

queue?

d) What is the maximum length of the queue? When does the maximum length queue occur?

e) Does the queue ever dissipate? Why or why not?

Solution

a)

c) 10am queue is 60 people long

d)

= 60 + 2 180 2 120

= 180 & 4

e) Only when all tickets are sold at 4pm

Question 2:

Vehicles randomly arrive at a signalized intersection to turn left. The left turn bay has the capacity for

3 vehicles. If on average 2.5 left turning vehicles arrive during the red phase, what is the probability

that the through lane will be blocked by the left turning vehicles?

Solution

Assume T is the red phase

2.5

= /

( > 3) = 1 ( 3) = 1 (0) (1) (2) (3)

2.50 2.5

(0) = 0!

=0.082

(1) = 0.205

(2) = 0.257

(3) = 0.214

( > 3) = 1 0.758 = 0.242 24.2%

Land Use and Trip Generation

Land use refers to the management and modification of the environment into a built environment. In

simple terms, it is the planning and formation of townships and cities on un-utilised land. Therefore,

broadly land use management focuses on the designation of residential, commercial and industrial

areas, the placement of community facilities such as schools, hospitals and waste disposal areas and in

a transport planning context, identifying road and railway corridors.

Transportation and land use planning decisions interact as the use of land will determine the demands

of travel, the modes people use and ultimately guide the necessary infrastructure. It is the objective of

the transport planner to ensure that the transport network and management is integrated with the land

use to ensure that all members of the community have satisfactory accessibility to perform day to day

activities.

Land use is an indicator to how much traffic will be generated from a region of a city, the first step of

the four-step planning process (see figure 1). The focus of the trip generation step is to identify how

many trips will originate and terminate in each region and this is carried out by developing models

and relationships between the factors that generate trips and the number of trips being generated.

In order to properly define the specifics of the traffic generation process, we first need to define the

scope and resolution of the problem:

TIME SCOPE: What time period are we focusing our study on?

SPATIAL RESOLUTION: What is the spatial resolution of our study? (i.e., what is the smallest

geographic unit we will consider?)

Answering these questions is critical for developing an appropriate model, and are greatly dependent

upon the application under considered. Increasing the scope and resolution of the problem will result

in a better model, but limitations exist, namely the availability of data.

Trip generation models focus on using existing data to forecast the future number of trips. The model

developed will directly depend on the type/amount/quality of data at hand. Below we will go through

the process of developing two such models from scratch.

You will notice that for the household size variable, we grouped all households of size 2 and 3

together. In general, this is done when the difference in trips between households of size 2 and 3 is

negligible. This method can also be used to deal with continuous variables, which will be illustrated in

the problem below.

Question 3:

Trip generation using a cross-classification model with a continuous variable

Welcome back to Congestington! The town council was so impressed with your previous work that

they have decided to again employ you as an independent contractor. Congestington is preparing for

an increase in population and development as they are determining new ways of keeping the killer

bears under control. This time your job is to develop a four step planning model to forecast the travel

demand for Congestington and the surrounding regions. Begin with the first step, trip generation.

The town conducted a survey and provided you with the following raw data regarding the number of

trips taken between 8am and 8pm for each of a set of households:

Household Income # of

Index Trips

1 20000 5

2 30000 4

3 45000 3

E 15000 6

5 55000 2

6 40000 4

7 25000 3

8 70000 2

9 90000 4

10 12000 2

11 120000 3

12 45000 6

13 60000 4

14 70000 3

15 40000 2

16 50000 6

17 60000 4

18 20000 3

19 50000 6

a) Construct a cross classification table based on income households that are either below or

above $48,000.

8am to 8pm

Below 48000 1/10 (5+4+3+6+4+3+2+6+2+3)=3.8

b) Construct a cross classification table based on income brackets

[0,27500,40000,60000,150000]

8am to 8pm

0-27500 (5+6+3+2+3)/5=3.8

27500-40000 (4+4+2)/3=3.33

40000-60000 (3+2+6+4+6+4+6)/7=4.41

60000-150000 (2+4+3+3)/4=3

c) Use the two cross-classification tables to predict the number of trips taken by the following

set of households:

Household Index Income # of Trips # of Trips

With CC With CC

from a) from b)

1 30000 3.8 3.3

2 35000 3.8 3.3

3 15000 3.8 3.8

4 45000 3.778 4.41

5 75000 3.778 3

6 45000 3.778 4.41

7 35000 3.8 3.3

8 100000 3.778 3

9 70000 3.778 3

10 18000 3.8 3.8

11 110000 3.778 3

12 55000 3.778 4.41

13 65000 3.778 3

14 75000 3.778 3

15 45000 3.778 4.41

16 45000 3.778 4.41

17 65000 3.778 3

18 25000 3.8 3.8

19 75000 3.778 3

Assuming there are only 2 income brackets (below and above 48k) assumed that people belong to

only two groups, and as such limits our ability to model the impact of income on the number of

trips each household makes.

By increasing the number of income brackets to 4, we see that each of the income brackets shows

a different value. Again, this gives us better information about the impact of income on the

number of trips per household.

Question 4:

Trip generation using a linear regression model

Congestington has provided you with some additional data in order to potentially improve your trip

generation process. Use the following data to develop a linear regression model. Discuss the final

form of the linear regression model and the method for developing it; demonstrators will provide the

final solution.

Vehicles between 8am and 8pm

1 20000 3 3 5

2 30000 2 2 4

3 45000 5 1 3

e 15000 4 2 6

5 55000 3 1 2

6 40000 4 2 4

7 25000 3 1 3

8 70000 2 3 2

9 90000 3 1 4

10 12000 2 1 2

11 120000 1 2 3

12 45000 1 3 6

13 60000 2 3 4

14 70000 3 2 3

15 40000 2 1 2

16 50000 3 3 6

17 60000 2 2 4

18 20000 1 1 3

19 50000 3 2 6

Results from regression (performed in Microsoft Excel)

Coefficients

Intercept 1.368311355

Income -9.58863E-06

Household Size 0.309321254

Number of Vehicles 1.101058786

Regression Equation:

1.368311355 0.00000958863 INCOME + 0.309321254 HH SIZE + 1.101058786

NUMBER OF VEHICLES

The sign of each of the coefficients gives us some intuition about the results:

- positive coefficients indicate that higher values of this variable imply more trips:

o More household members = more trips

- More vehicles in the household = more trips

- negative coefficients indicate that higher values result in less trips:

o Higher income = less trips

Do these results make sense? What would be some explanations for the sign of each of the

variables? Discuss this with the class. Here are some potential points to focus on:

Income:

- Households with higher incomes are more likely to live in comfortable homes, and may not

have as much of an incentive to make trips.

- Households with higher incomes are more likely to have 9-5 jobs which only require 2 trips

per day.

- Households with higher incomes may be more willing to pay fees associated with delivery of

goods (food, groceries, etc.)

Household size:

- More people = more activities = more trips

- Each household member will have a minimum required number of trips.

Number of Vehicles in Household:

- More vehicles in the household imply more freedom for members of the household to take

trips.

Congestington has provided you with some data for five additional households. Predict the number

of trips generated for each household.

Number

Household Household of # of

Index Income Size Vehicles Trips

1 30000 1 2 3.59

2 50000 3 2 4.02

3 15000 2 1 2.94

4 25000 1 3 4.74

5 65000 3 1 2.77

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