Weekly

.
NFP has given the market a reality check, although very few instruments that I monitor had convincing bearish prints
at the weekly close. All except the ES broke through key levels early in the week and have held above, though gains
Journal remain precarious at this stage. This week, the major market moving events for the US and EU indices kick off on
08 Aug 2010 Tuesday, with FOMC. The weeks ends with EU GDP and US CPI, along with advance retail sales.
6E long abv 1.3125 (!) ES nxt rez 1130, 1147 (!) DAX neutral to long blw 6400 (!) CL buy dips abv 80 (!)

Calendar GMT Event Mkt Risk Exp Prev Remarks

Monday 0130 NZ Home loans Jun Ccy Med 1.9 NZD pairs
0600 EU German trade balance C/E Med 12B 9.7B DAX, ESX, EUR pairs
0830 EZ Sentix investor confidence Aug Equ Med 2.0 -1.3 DAX, ESX intraday
2301 UK RICS house prices Jul Ccy Med 5.0 9.0 GBP pairs
Tuesday 0000 JP Cabinet office monthly econ report Ccy High JPY pairs
BoJ rate decision C/E High 0.10 0.10 JPY pairs, leading equity indices (priced in)
0130 AU NAB business confidence Jul Ccy Med 8 AUD pairs, watch conditions
0600 EU German CPI Jul final YoY, MoM C/E Med 1.1 1.1 EUR, DAX, ESX, watch harmonized figures
0830 UK DCLG house prices Jun YoY Ccy Med 9.8 11.0 GBP pairs
Visible trade balance Jun Ccy M/L -7.8B -8.06B See above, likely priced in
1215 CA Housing starts Jul C/E Med 184K 192.8K CAD pairs, ES intraday (priced in?)
1815 US FOMC rate decision Aug 10 C/E High 0.25 0.25 USD pairs, indices (priced in, watch stmnt)
2301 UK GBP consumer confidence Jul Ccy Med 61 63 GBP pairs
Wednesday 0030 AU Westpac consumer confidence Aug Ccy Med 11.1 AUD pairs
0830 UK Claimant jobless claims C/E High 15K 20.8K Z, GBP pairs, watch claimant count rate
0930 Quarterly inflation report C/E High See above, priced in
1230 CA Int'l merchandise trade Jun Ccy Med 0.5B CAD pairs
US Trade balance Jun C/E Med -42.2B -42.3B Indices, USD pairs, priced in
1800 US Budget statement Jul Equ M/L -180.7B See above
Thursday 0130 AU Unemployment rate Jul Ccy High 5.1 AUD pairs, watch change for 20K
0500 JP Consumer confidence Jul Ccy M/L 43.9 43.5 JPY pairs
0800 EU ECB monthly report Aug C/E Med DAX, ESX, EUR pairs, priced in
0900 EZ industrial production Jun YoY C/E Med 0.7 DAX, ESX, EUR pairs, priced in
1230 US Import price index Jul YoY Equ Med 0.4 -1.3 ES, TF, YM intraday
2245 NA Retail sales Jul Ccy Med 0.5 0.4 NZD pairs, watch ex auto/inflation
Friday 0600 EU German GDP Q2 YoY C/E M/H 2.4 1.6 DAX, ESX, EUR pairs, preliminary
0900 EU EZ GDP Q2 YoY C/E High 1.4 0.6 See above
1230 US CPI Jul C/E High 1.2 1.1 All markets, intraday, watch core/ex-
Advance retail sales Jul C/E High 0.4 -0.5 See above
1355 US Univ. of Michigan confidence Aug C/E Med 69.8 67.8 See above, preliminary

Another word about EURJPY.

Basing continues, but the relative weakness of EUR compared to
other key currencies (except USD of course) suggests the level of
commitment to risk required to reverse bearish sentiment in
global markets is still lacking. This is confirmed by just about every
piece of economic data and punditry in the MSFM.
Low volume should continue, with market internals
supporting a summer range. Volatility in this context will be sharp
Will basing continue, signaling
and unpredictable, I believe. Last week's culmination in poor US
increasing commitment to risk?
jobs data has given everyone pause. Some are speculating this will
give the Fed that much more reason to continue suffocating the
USD. The thinking is that the single best option for repairing the
US economy at this point is through export-led growth -- because
it could be a very long time before the job market and consumer
spending recover.
This week we have a full calendar. I'll be watching Friday's
growth and inflationary data in particular.

The Lonely Trader

Disclaimer: All information is provided as market commentary and not as investment or trading advice. The Lonely Trader
expressly disclaims liability, without limitation, for losses or damages resulting from reliance on such information. Past
results are no guarantee of future performance. Please consult a registered financial advisor before risking your capital.
Euro weekly studies

Weekly range extreme

Will the euro establish a new

range of accepted value?

Weekly range extreme

Low volume on the ascent

continues, except that buyers
have initiated trade above
1.3125/30, creating the conditions
(but not a guarantee) that a new
range will be established between
1.3 and 1.35. Possible upside to
1.37, but doubt we'll get there this
week.

Euro Sept contract has broken and held above key resistance. The bounce at 1.3125 suggests a move to 1.35 is underway. This
week the odds of a touch are about 30%. My question is whether a new range will be established above 1.3. How confident I am
in answering this question will be the cornerstone to my trading strategy for the rest of the quarter. The likely range this week will
be between 250 and 370 pips. The high extreme projection is 1.3550. The low extreme projection is 1.2850. I have revised my
guess that the euro is in the process of establishing a range between 1.5 and 1.3 with possible stabs at 1.36xx and 1.27xx. My bias
has shifted to long above 1.3125/30, but I'm sure the euro will find some way to embarrass me. Long term (6m to 1yr), my bias is
to the downside, targeting 1.2000 and 1.1500 eventually.

The Lonely Trader

Disclaimer: All information is provided as market commentary and not as investment or trading advice. The Lonely Trader
expressly disclaims liability, without limitation, for losses or damages resulting from reliance on such information. Past
results are no guarantee of future performance. Please consult a registered financial advisor before risking your capital.
ES90 weekly studies

Weekly range extreme

Weekly range extreme

ES Sept contract is rotating higher on low(er) volume. ES firmed above 1100 last week with momentary downside probes. 1130
has not yet given way, so my bias is neutral going into this week. A break of 1130 opens up 1147, which is my projected weekly
high -- note that this projection is different from the weekly extreme high at 1155. The quick recovery after Friday's NFP numbers
suggests there is significant support for equities -- whether due to earnings, a brighter corporate outlook and continued
unwinding of toxic assets, confirmation of a continued accommodative monetary stance, or whatever. My bias is still short below
1130, long above 1147 -- but of course I'm talking about my bias only. I would not put on a short position here. Range studies put
a close above 1130 by Wednesday at 40%, 18% higher than last week. Odds of a touch at 1130 before Wednesday are 25%. Odds
of a touch at 1100 are 59%. Range extremes are at 1155 and 1085. Two week HVNs at 1120, 1118.50 (POC), 1110.50, and 1107.50.
The distribution below 1118.50 is not very well defined. Last week's range was narrower than the week before, at 26 points. My
studies indicate primary range projection of 32 points and an alternate of 45 points, give or take a few.

The Lonely Trader

Disclaimer: All information is provided as market commentary and not as investment or trading advice. The Lonely Trader
expressly disclaims liability, without limitation, for losses or damages resulting from reliance on such information. Past
results are no guarantee of future performance. Please consult a registered financial advisor before risking your capital.
DAX weekly studies

I have NO IDEA where this market is going, other than to

say that the consolidation will continue until it doesn't .
My bias is long, but watching HLs and LHs very closely. Range extreme 6690 ↗
Composite volume profile isn't giving any clear signals.
Very messy picture here, but intraday looks much nicer
and that is the time horizon I call home with DAX.
Likely range limit 6510

Likely range limit 6110

Range extreme 5980

DAX Sept contract remains volatile and range bound. Volume over the past four weeks has been consistent and on the low side,
but higher high have printed and a break of 6400 looks to be close at hand. I continue to believe that as long as this index remains
above 5600, the uptrend is still intact. My bias this week is for a correction within the range. Short term resistance levels are 6410
and 6500, with 6690 being the extreme of my weekly range studies. Short term support levels are 6250 (technical), 6110
(technical), 6060 (rejection low), 6000 (range pivot), 5910 (rejection low), and 5800 (responsive buying at major swing low). Two
week key HVNs roughly in the areas of 6345, 6300, 6280, 6221, and 6178. It's important to keep in mind that currently the DAX
sits in the middle of a very large range -- from the 2008 range high to the 2009 range low.

The Lonely Trader

Disclaimer: All information is provided as market commentary and not as investment or trading advice. The Lonely Trader
expressly disclaims liability, without limitation, for losses or damages resulting from reliance on such information. Past
results are no guarantee of future performance. Please consult a registered financial advisor before risking your capital.
 Crude weekly studies

Weekly range extreme

Weekly range extreme

Crude will continue to lose ground in a weak global economy, but buying continues. The breakout from the June/July range has
held, with a rejection at 80.04 after Friday's NFP release. That said, the close was bearish from a technical point of view. Range
studies suggest not more than 3.5 handles to the upside and not more than 4.5 handles to the downside, making 84.10 and 76 the
projected extremes for the week, with 83 (last week's high), 80 (key support level), 76.90 (supply and support), and 76 (last week's
swing low and possible range pivot) the only significant intermediate technical references. A clear break to the upside targets 85.
A break to the downside targets 72.

Comments and ideas welcome. Insults Jay Schneider -- FX and futures, range studies
appreciated, as long as they are clever. San Diego Area, USA
...Seriously. If you have feedback or helpful Email
Blog
resources, let's hear it!...

The Lonely Trader

Disclaimer: All information is provided as market commentary and not as investment or trading advice. The Lonely Trader
expressly disclaims liability, without limitation, for losses or damages resulting from reliance on such information. Past
results are no guarantee of future performance. Please consult a registered financial advisor before risking your capital.