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The Netherlands
REAL ESTATE
MARKET OUTLOOK
Contents
Executive Summary 3
Economic Outlook 5
Investment Outlook 7
Debt Market 11
Non-listed Market 15
EXECUTIV E SUMMA RY
CBRE B.V. 2016 THE NETHERLANDS REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2016 CBRE RESEARCH
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ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
ECONOMIC O UTL O O K
EMBEDDED UPTURN
1.5%
1.3% DK NL
1.1% PT
IT DL
0.9% EU
0.7% ES
FR UK
0.5%
0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5%
GDP '15Q3 % y-o-y
CBRE B.V. 2016 THE NETHERLANDS REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2016 CBRE RESEARCH
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INVESTMENT OUTLOOK
INVESTMENT O UTL O O K
T R A N S I T I O N O F C A P I TA L
Revival of retail
12
10
0
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
CBRE B.V. 2016 THE NETHERLANDS REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2016 CBRE RESEARCH
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INVESTMENT O UTL O O K
R E A L E S TA T E C A P I TA L F L O W S I N T O T H E
NETHERLANDS 2015
AMERICAS
2.18 bn
18.8%
NETHERLANDS
TOTAL
11.6 bn
UNITED
KINGDOM
1.60 bn
13.8% GERMANY
0.98 bn
8.4% MIDDLE
EAST
0.11 bn
FRANCE 0.9%
0.32 bn
2.8%
APAC
0.59 bn
5.1%
EUROPE
DOMESTIC
OTHER
5.20 bn
0.61 bn
44.9%
5.3%
CBRE
CBRE RESEARCH
B.V. 2016 THE NETHERLANDS REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2016 CBRE
CBRERESEARCH
B.V. 2016
8
INVESTMENT O UTL O O K
T R A N S I T I O N O F C A P I TA L
5%
11%
39%
14%
23%
8%
CBRE B.V. 2016 THE NETHERLANDS REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2016 CBRE RESEARCH
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DEBT MARKET
DEBT MA RKET
DIVERSIFIED LANDSCAPE
CBRE B.V. 2016 THE NETHERLANDS REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2016 CBRE RESEARCH
11
DEBT MA RKET
DIVERSIFIED LANDSCAPE
Debt funds
Niche lenders
100 bps 150 bps 200 bps 250 bps 300 bps 350 bps 400 bps 450 bps 500 bps + Volume Risk
Pfandbrief banks + --
Insurance companies + -
Investment banks ++ +
Debt Funds + ++
CBRE B.V. 2016 THE NETHERLANDS REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2016 CBRE RESEARCH
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DEBT MA RKET
DIVERSIFIED LANDSCAPE
CBRE B.V. 2016 THE NETHERLANDS REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2016 CBRE RESEARCH
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NON-LISTED MARKET
NON -L ISTED MA RKET
INCREASING LIQUIDITY
250 40
Trade Volume (LHS) Reported Number of Trades (RHS)
Millions
200
30
150
20
100
10
50
0 0
Mar-10
Mar-11
Mar-12
Mar-13
Mar-14
Mar-15
Sep-09
Dec-09
Jun-10
Sep-10
Dec-10
Jun-11
Sep-11
Dec-11
Jun-12
Sep-12
Dec-12
Jun-13
Sep-13
Dec-13
Jun-14
Sep-14
Dec-14
Jun-15
Sep-15
Dec-15
Source: PropertyMatch
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RESEARCH CAPITAL MARKETS CAPITAL ADVISORS