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8 (de) vizualizări8 paginiEx post facto

Aug 15, 2017

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Ex post facto

© All Rights Reserved

8 (de) vizualizări

Ex post facto

© All Rights Reserved

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2. Bambang Iswan

A BRIEF SUMMARY OF

CHAPTER 12

EX POST FACTO RESEARCH

The designation ex post facto, from Latin for after the fact indicates that ex post

facto research is conducted after variation in the variable of interest has already

been determined in the natural course of events. This method sometimes called

causal comparative because its porpuse is to investigate cause nad effect

relationships between independent and dependent variables. Researchers use it in

situations that do not permit the randomizations and manipulation of variables

characteristic of experimental research. Thus, much of the basic rationale for

experimental and ex post facto is the same. They both investigate relationships

among variables and the test hypothesis.

Let us illustrate the differece between ex post facto and the experiment approch by

examining these two approaches tothe same research questions. Consider the

question of the Effect os students anxiety in an achivment testing situation on their

examination performence. The ex post facto approach would involve measuring

that already existing anxiety level at the time of the examination and then

compairing the performance of high anxious and low anxious students. The

weakness of such an approach is that you could necessarily conclude that the

students anxiety prodeced the observed different in achievement examination

performance. Both sets of scores may have been influenced by a third factor, such

as knowledge of the subject matterbeing examined or general self-confidence.

Knowledge or aptitude may be the major cause of both the level of anxiety and the

achievement test result.

In experimental approach to the same problem, the investigator could radomly

assign subject to two exam conditions that are identical in every respect exacp that

one is anxiety arosing and the other is neutral. The experimenter can induce anxiety

by telling the subjects that their final grade may depent on their performance, that

they may find the test to be extremely difficult, or that the test can be used to identify

the incompetent. The neutral group would marely be told that their cooperation is

needed for the experiment. The investigator could randomly assign subjects to the

two conditions. Then, if the anxious group performed better than the neutral group,

it could be concluded that the induced anciety had a facilitating effect on test

performace. If the neutral group performed better than the anxious group, it could

be concluded that the induced anxiety had a debilitating effect. A conclusion could

be legitimately drawn because of the control provided by the random assigment of

groups to treatments and by the experimenters direct manipulation of the

independent variable. Anxiety is one of the few variables that can be either an active

or an attribute independent variable. You can manipulate it actively, as describe

(experimental research), or you classify subjects on the basis of their scores on an

anxiety measure (ex post facto research).

1. The first step in an ex post facto study is to state the research problem

usually in the form of a question.

2. Next, select two or more groups to be compared.

3. Determine whether your question requires a proactive or a retroactive

sesign. There are two types of ex post facto research designs proactive and

retroactive.

a. Proactive ex post facto research design begins with subjects grouped on

the basis of independent variable such as father present/father not

present or retained/promoted.

b. Retroactive ex post facto research seeks possible accident causes

(independent variables) for a preexisting dependent variable.

Alternative Explanations in Ex Post Facto Research

1. Common case. A possible of common cause is student employment.

Example having a car may require students to work in order to afford

the car.

2. Reverse causality. Is it possible that poor grades are a cause of car use?

3. Other possible independent variables.

These strategies provide partial control of the internal valudity problems of

common cause and other posible independent variabels. Among the strategies are

matching, homogeneous groups, building extraneous variables into the design,

analysis of covariance and partial correlation.

a. Matching, a common method of providing partial control in ex post facto

investigation is a match the subjects in the experimental and control groups

on as many extraneous variables as possible. This matching is usually done

a subject to subject basis to form mathed pairs.

b. Homogeneous Groups, you may recall from the disscusion of control in

experimentation that it is possible to control for the effect of a variable by

selecting samples that are ashomogenous as possible on the variable.

c. Building extraneous variables into the design. It may be possible to build

relevant extraneous independent variables into the ex post facto design and

investigate ther effect through the use of two way and higher order analyses

of cvariace.

d. Analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) is sometimes used to partially adjust for

preexisting differences between groups in an ex post facto design.

Specifically in adjusts scores on the dependent variable for any initial

differences on the extraneous variable. However, because the adjustment is

only partial, ANCOVA does not solve the problem of initial differences

between groups but only reduces. When interprenting ex post facto research,

it is inappropriate to assume ANCOVA has satisfactorily adjusted for initial

differences.

THE ROLE OF EX POST FACTO RESEARCH

If they want to learn anithing about relationships between such attribute variables

and other variablesin ex post facto method is their only recourse. An ex post facto

study is better than no study at all. If researchers use appropriate methods of partial

control and consider alternative hypotheses, perhaps they can be correct more often

than wrong.

A. DEFINITION

Correlational research is non-experimental research that studies the

direction and strength relationships among variables. It gathers data on two or

more quantitative variables from the same group of subjects (or from two

logically related groups) and then determines the correlation among the

variables. Correlational procedures are widely used in educational and

psychological research. They enable researchers to better understand certain

phenomena and to make predictions.

B. USES OF CORRELATIONAL RESEARCH

Correlational research is useful in a wide variety of studies. The most

useful applications of correlation are:

1. Assessing Relationships

Correlational research methods are used to assess relationships and

patterns of relationship among variables in a single group of subjects. For

instance, correlational research is used to answer questions such as:

Is there a relationship between students vocabulary mastery and reading

skill?

2. Assessing Consistency

Correlation can be used to measure consistency (or lack thereof) in

a wide variety of cases. For example:

How consistent are the independently assigned reading score given by the

lecturer and the lecturers assistant at college?

3. Prediction

If two variables are correlated, then you can use one variable to

predict the other. The higher the correlation, the more accurate the

prediction. Prediction studies are frequently used in education. For example:

Is students UN score at SMA related to students GPA (IPK) at College?

C. DESIGN OF CORRELATIONAL RESEARCH

Correlational designs are often valuable for generating hypotheses that

can be further investigated in experimental or ex post facto research. Here the

most popular design for correlational research:

1. Choosing the Problem/Topic

2. Identifies the Problem/Topic

3. Check Literature

4. Make Instruments

5. Tried Out the Instruments

6. Fixed the Sample

7. Gathering the Data

8. Analyze the Data

9. Interpret the Result

D. CORRELATION COEFFICIENTS

Indexes, which correlational research produces, that shown both the

direction and the strength of relationships among variables, taking into account

the entire range of these variables. The sign (+ or -) of the coefficients indicates

the relationships in value form:

1. +1,00 (indicating a perfect positive relationship).

2. -1,00 (indicating a perfect negative relationship).

A number of different types of correlation coefficients are used with

variables that are measured on different types of scales. Kinds of correlation

coefficients:

1. Pearson Product Moment (r)

Pearson product moment correlation coefficients use when the

variables to be correlated are normally distributed and measured on an

interval or ratio scale.

2. Coefficient of Determination (r2)

Coefficient of determination is useful index for evaluating the

meaning of size of a correlation. It also reminds one that positive and

negative correlation of the same magnitude.

3. Spearman Rho ()

Spearman Rho is an ordinal coefficient of correlation. Used when

the data are ranks.

4. The Phi Coefficient ()

Phi Coefficient used when both variables are genuine dichotomies

scored 1 or 0.

E. CONSIDERATIONS FOR INTERPRETING A CORRELATION

COEFFICIENT

Ways to be evaluated the numerical value in correlational research:

1. The nature of the population and the shape of its distribution

The value of an observed correlation is influenced by the

characteristics of the population in which it is observed.

2. Comparison to other correlations

A useful correlation is one that is higher (in either direction) than

other correlations of the same or similar variables.

3. Practical Utility

Always consider the practical significance of the correlation

coefficient. Although a correlation coefficient may be statistically

significant, it may have little practical utility. With a sample of 1000, a very

small coefficient such as 0,08 would be statistically significant at the 0,01

level.

4. Statistical Significance

In evaluating the size of a correlation, it is important to consider the

size of the sample on which the correlation is based.

5. Determining sample size

The Pearson product moment correlation is a form of effect size.

Therefore, it can be used to determine the needed sample size for a

predetermined level of significance and predetermined tolerable probability

of type I error.

In evaluating a correlational study, one of the most frequent errors

is to interpret a correlation as indicating a cause-and-effect relationship.

Correlation is a necessary but never a sufficient condition for causation.

7. Partial correlation

Partial correlation is a technique used to determine what correlation

remains between two variables when the effect of another variable is

eliminated.

8. Multiple regression

Multiple regression is used to find the relationship between two or

more independent variables and a dependent variable. It yields a prediction

equation that the researcher can use later to predict the dependent variable

for a new group of subjects, when the researcher has information only on

the independent variables

F. FACTOR ANALYSIS

1. Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA)

EFA is a family of techniques used to detect patterns in a set of

interval-level variables. The purpose of EFA is to try to reduce the set of

measured variables to a smaller set of underlying factors that account for

the patterns of relationships.

2. Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA)

CFA used to examine the relationships between a set of measured

variables and a smaller set of factors that might account for them. CFA

assumes relatively precise advance knowledge and allows a researcher to

specify a priori what these relationships might look like and then to test the

accuracy of these formal hypotheses

G. OTHER COMPLEX CORRELATIONAL PRODUCES

Some more sophisticated correlational proce-dures include partial

correlation, discriminant analysis, factor analysis, canonical correlation, path

analysis, and structural equation modeling. It is important to know the type of

research situation in which each of these techniques would be useful.

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