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ADVERTISING EXPENDITURE FORECASTS SEPTEMBER 2015
ADVERTISING
EXPENDITURE
FORECASTS
SEPTEMBER 2015
ADVERTISING EXPENDITURE FORECASTS SEPTEMBER 2015
ADVERTISING EXPENDITURE FORECASTS SEPTEMBER 2015
ADVERTISING EXPENDITURE FORECASTS SEPTEMBER 2015
ADVERTISING EXPENDITURE FORECASTS SEPTEMBER 2015
ADVERTISING EXPENDITURE FORECASTS SEPTEMBER 2015
ADVERTISING EXPENDITURE FORECASTS SEPTEMBER 2015

Advertising Expenditure Forecasts September 2015

Written by:

Anne Austin, Jonathan Barnard, Nicola Hutcheon

Design by:

David Parry, Open Studio

ISSN 0968-2163 (Print) ISSN 2053-4930 (Online) ISBN 978-1-910969-05-2

These forecasts and this compilation are the copyright of ZenithOptimedia. We have produced this paper to give our views on topical matters. It does not purport to give any specific advice, and should not be taken or relied upon as so doing.

© ZenithOptimedia

September 2015

About ZenithOptimedia

ZenithOptimedia - www.zenithoptimedia.com - is a leading global media services network with over 7,500 people working in 262 offices across 74 countries. We are part of Publicis Groupe [Euronext Paris FR0000130577, CAC 40], the world’s third largest communications group, and the world’s second largest media agency group. As the first agency to apply a rigorous and objective approach to improving the effectiveness of marketing spend, ZenithOptimedia delivers to clients the best possible return on their communications investment. This philosophy is supported by a unique

For further information on ZenithOptimedia, please contact:

approach to strategy development and implementation across the full spectrum of paid, owned and earned contact points – the Live ROI planning process. The ZenithOptimedia Group of companies equips our clients with a full range of integrated skills across communications planning, value optimisation, performance media and content creation. Our key clients include Aviva, Clarins, Coty, Kering, Lactalis, L’Oréal, LVMH, Nestlé, Oracle, Reckitt Benckiser, Richemont Groupe, SCA, Sanofi, Toyota and 21st Century Fox.

Steve King

Belinda Rowe

Chief Executive Officer

Managing Partner

Tel:

+44 20 7961 1046

Tel:

+44 20 7961 1190

E-mail:

steve.king@zenithoptimedia.com

E-mail:

belinda.rowe@zenithoptimedia.com

All our publications are available online at www.zenithoptimedia.com

Contents

Introduction

1

Indonesia

91

 

Ireland

93

Methodology

7

Israel

96

 

Italy

98

WORLDWIDE SUMMARY

9

Japan

101

 

Kazakhstan

103

REGIONAL SUMMARIES

Kuwait

105

North America

16

Latvia

106

Western Europe

17

Lebanon

108

Central & Eastern Europe

18

Lithuania

109

Asia Pacific

19

Malaysia

112

Latin America

20

Mexico

114

Middle East & North Africa

21

Moldova

117

Rest of the world

22

Netherlands

119

List of countries included in Regional summaries

23

New Zealand

121

 

Nigeria

124

Exchange rates

24

Norway

125

 

Oman

127

COUNTRY ENTRIES

Pakistan

128

Argentina

26

Pan Arab

131

Armenia

28

Panama

132

Australia

29

Peru

133

Austria

32

Philippines

135

Azerbaijan

34

Poland

137

Bahrain

36

Portugal

139

Belarus

37

Puerto Rico

141

Belgium

39

Qatar

143

Bosnia & Herzegovina

42

Romania

144

Brazil

44

Russia

146

Bulgaria

46

Saudi Arabia

149

Canada

48

Serbia

151

Chile

51

Singapore

153

China

53

Slovakia

155

Colombia

55

Slovenia

157

Costa Rica

57

South Africa

159

Croatia

59

South Korea

161

Czech Republic

61

Spain

163

Denmark

64

Sweden

165

Ecuador

66

Switzerland

167

Egypt

68

Taiwan

169

El Salvador

69

Thailand

171

Estonia

70

Turkey

174

Finland

72

Ukraine

176

France

74

United Arab Emirates

178

Georgia

77

United Kingdom

180

Germany

79

United States of America

185

Greece

81

Uruguay

195

Hong Kong

83

Uzbekistan

196

Hungary

86

Venezuela

198

India

88

Vietnam

200

INTRODUCTION

Welcome to the September 2015 edition of the Advertising Expenditure Forecasts.

ZenithOptimedia predicts global ad expenditure will grow 4.0% in 2015, reaching US$554 billion by the end of the year.

Our forecast for 2015 is down by 0.2 percentage points from the June edition as marketers have moderated their expectations of global economic growth.

Forecast by regional bloc

Growth of advertising expenditure and GDP 2014-2017 (%)

+5.9

+6.1

+5.1 +5.0 +5.0 +4.7 +4.4 +4.0 2014 2015 2016 2017
+5.1
+5.0
+5.0
+4.7
+4.4
+4.0
2014
2015
2016
2017

Source: ZenithOptimedia/IMF

GDP

Adspend

Since the December 2012 edition of our forecasts we have looked at the growth rates of different regional blocs defined by the similarity of the performance of their ad markets as well as their geographical proximity. This captures the behaviour of different regional ad markets more effectively than looking at regions defined purely by geography, such

as Western Europe, Central & Eastern Europe and Asia than looking at regions defined purely by geography, such Pacific. See the end of the Introduction

Pacific. See the end of the Introduction for a complete list of countries by bloc. At the end of last year we revised the definition of these blocs. We used to separate the Peripheral Eurozone (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain) from Northern and Central Europe, because the periphery was substantially weaker. However, the performance of the two regions has now converged, and we have combined them into a single region called Western & Central Europe.such as Western Europe, Central & Eastern Europe and Asia Advertising Expenditure Forecasts September 2015 1

them into a single region called Western & Central Europe. Advertising Expenditure Forecasts September 2015 1

Growth in adspend by regional bloc 2014-2015 (%)

-8.6 Eastern Europe & Central Asia -4.5 MENA Japan 2.5 Western & Central Europe 2.6
-8.6
Eastern Europe & Central Asia
-4.5
MENA
Japan
2.5
Western & Central Europe
2.6
Advanced Asia
2.8
North America
3.5
Fast-track Asia
8.1
Latin America
8.6

Source: ZenithOptimedia

Western & Central Europe

For several years the ad markets at the periphery of the eurozone were by far the worst-performing in Europe, which was why we separated them out in a bloc called the Peripheral Eurozone. Between 2007 and 2013, adspend fell 29% in Italy, 38% in Ireland, 43% in Portugal, 47% in Spain and 62% in Greece. Over this period the eurozone’s core markets remained stable: adspend shrank by just 2% in France and by 3% in Germany.

However, Greece, Portugal, Spain and Ireland all began to make strong recoveries in 2014, helping adspend in Western & Central Europe grow 3.0% that year, substantially improving on its 0.8% decline in 2013. Greece’s recovery went into reverse in early 2015 as the government geared up to confront its creditors, but over the rest of our forecast period we expect Portugal, Spain and Ireland to outperform the average rate for Western & Central Europe, admittedly from their much-reduced base levels.

Meanwhile, France is lagging behind as business confidence remains weak and private-sector employment declines. We forecast no overall growth in adspend in France between 2014 and 2017.

Outside the eurozone, the stand-out ad market in Western & Central Europe is the UK, which is currently booming thanks to the rapid adoption of internet advertising. Adspend in the UK grew 7.8% in 2014, and we forecast an average growth rate of 6.8% a year to 2017.

We expect growth in the UK and the peripheral eurozone markets to counterbalance the weakness in the core eurozone, allowing Western & Central Europe to grow at an average of 3.0% a year between 2014 and 2017.

Eastern Europe & Central Asia

Eastern European advertising markets, such as Russia and Turkey, generally recovered quickly after the 2009 downturn and continued their healthy pace of growth, largely (though not entirely) unaffected by the problems in the eurozone for the next four years. Their near neighbours in Central

Asia, such as Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan, have behaved very similarly, so we have gathered them together under the Eastern Europe & Central Asia bloc. This bloc grew 11.4% in 2013.

The conflict in Ukraine severely disrupted the domestic ad

market, while Russia has suffered from sanctions imposed

by the US and the EU, the sanctions it imposed in response,

and a withdrawal of international investment. These shocks

have been exacerbated by a sharp drop in the price of oil – which accounted for 70% of Russia’s exports in 2014 – and

devaluation of the Ukrainian and Russian currencies. These

problems have since spread to Belarus, whose main trading partner is Russia by some distance. We forecast adspend in Ukraine to shrink 44.5% this year, on top of a 37.9% decline in 2014. Russian adspend grew just 4.3% in 2014, which was the first year of growth below double-digit rates since 2009, and we expect the market to shrink by 14.1% in 2015. We forecast a 15.0% decline in adspend in Belarus this year, following 7.6% growth in 2014.

Overall we expect adspend in Eastern Europe & Central Asia to shrink by 8.6% in 2015. In the past adspend in this region has been volatile, with large declines swiftly followed by rapid gains. In this case, however, we think the region will be slow to recover, and we forecast just 3.3% growth in 2016 and 6.1% in 2017.

Japan

Japan behaves differently enough from other markets in Asia to be treated separately. Despite recent measures of economic stimulus, Japan remains stuck in its rut of persistent low growth. We forecast adspend growth of 2.5% a year between 2014 and 2017.

Advanced Asia

Apart from Japan, there are five countries in Asia with developed economies and advanced ad markets that we have placed in a group called Advanced Asia: Australia, New Zealand, Hong Kong, Singapore and South Korea. We estimate growth here at a disappointing 1.9% in 2014, after weakness in the property market damaged consumer confidence in Singapore and Australia suffered from low prices for its key commodity exports. As these problems recede we expect growth in Advanced Asia to pick up to an average of 2.7% a year through to 2017.

Fast-track Asia

We characterise the rest of Asia as Fast-track Asia (China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam). These economies are growing extremely rapidly as they adopt Western technology and practices, while benefiting from the rapid inflow of funds from investors hoping to tap into this growth. Fast-track Asia barely noticed the 2009 downturn (ad expenditure grew by 7.9% that year) and since then has grown very

strongly, ending 2014 up an estimated 10.7%. However, the Chinese economy – the main engine of growth in Fast- track Asia – is finally starting to slow after years of blistering growth, and the ad market is slowing down alongside it (although with an official target of 7.0% GDP growth in 2015, China’s growth rate remains one most markets will envy). China accounts for 74% of adspend in Fast-track Asia, so its slowdown naturally has a large effect on the region as a whole. We expect ad expenditure in Fast-track Asia to grow at an average rate of 8.4% a year between 2014 and 2017, down from 14.7% over the last five years.

Note that for this edition we have replaced our third-party estimates of Chinese adspend with entirely new figures, unique to ZenithOptimedia, which we believe accurately reflect the true levels of adspend in the market. The previous figures substantially underestimated the scale of advertising activity in China, which we now value at US$68 billion in 2014, up from US$46 billion.

We have not changed the definition of North America, Latin America or the Middle East & North Africa (MENA) in this analysis.

North America

North America was the first region to suffer the effects of the financial crisis, but it was also quick to recover, and adspend in North America has been more robust than in Western & Central Europe since 2012. We estimate that adspend grew 4.7% in 2014, boosted by the Winter Olympics and mid-term elections. In the absence of these events we forecast 3.5% growth in 2015, followed by 4.2% in 2016 (which will benefit from the 2016 Summer Olympics and the US Presidential elections) and 3.7% in 2017.

Latin America

Latin America’s economies are more volatile than those of Fast-track Asia, but lately it has been restrained by low prices for oil and other export commodities, and the weakness of the economy in Brazil. We estimate that Latin American adspend grew by an estimated 4.2% in 2014, and we forecast 8.6% growth in 2015. The 2016 Summer Olympics – hosted in Brazil – should support 8.2% in 2016, after which we expect growth to fall back to 3.7% in 2017.

MENA

The Arab Spring left many advertisers in the Middle East & North Africa cautious about attracting negative attention. Adspend shrank 14.9% in 2011, and grew a meagre 1.4% in 2012. Confidence and activity began to recover in 2013, when adspend grew 4.7%. However, while the conflict in Iraq and Syria had little direct effect on the big advertising

markets, it made advertisers more cautious about investing in the region as a whole; we estimate adspend grew 2.3% in 2014. The drop in oil prices has had a much more severe effect on the economies in the region, and has prompted advertisers to cut back their budgets in anticipation of lower consumer demand. We forecast a 4.5% drop in adspend in MENA this year, followed by a further decline of 2.7% in 2016 and growth of just 0.3% in 2017.

Average annual growth in adspend by regional bloc 2014-2017 (%)

-2.3 MENA Eastern Europe & Central Asia 0.0 Japan 2.5 Advanced Asia 2.7 Western &
-2.3
MENA
Eastern Europe & Central Asia
0.0
Japan
2.5
Advanced Asia
2.7
Western & Central Europe
3.0
North America
3.8
Latin America
6.8
Fast-track Asia
8.4

Source: ZenithOptimedia

We can divide our blocs into three categories: no growth, steady growth and rapid growth. The no-growth regions are MENA (which will shrink by 2.3% a year to 2017) and Eastern Europe & Central Asia, which will only just make up in 2016 and 2017 the adspend lost in 2015. There are then four regions with very similar growth rates of between 2% and 4% a year: Japan, Advanced Asia, Western & Central Europe and North America, in ascending order of growth. Latin America and Fast-track Asia are by far the fastest-growing blocs, averaging 7% and 8% annual growth respectively.

Forecast by leading advertising markets

Despite the rapid growth of the Rising Markets*, the US is still the biggest contributor of new ad dollars to the global market. Between 2014 and 2017 we expect the US to contribute 29% of the US$74 billion that will be added to global adspend. China comes second, accounting for 22% of additional ad dollars over this period, followed by the UK and Indonesia, accounting for 7% and 5% respectively.

Six of the ten largest contributors will be Rising Markets, and will contribute 40% of new adspend over the next three years. Overall, we forecast Rising Markets to contribute 52% of additional ad expenditure between 2014 and 2017, and to increase their share of the global market from 37% to 39%.

Top ten contributors to adspend growth 2014-2017 (US$m)

USA 21,376 China 16,690 UK 5,289 Indonesia 3,865 Japan 3,138 India 2,624 Brazil 2,475 Argentina
USA
21,376
China
16,690
UK
5,289
Indonesia
3,865
Japan
3,138
India
2,624
Brazil
2,475
Argentina
2,077
Mexico
1,751
Germany
1,347

Source: ZenithOptimedia

The ranking of the world’s largest ad markets is currently very stable. The only change we expect between 2014 and 2017 is for the UK to overtake Germany to take fourth place this year.

Top ten ad markets US$m, current prices Currency conversion at 2014 average rates

   

2014

Adspend

1 USA

176,236

2 China

68,372

3 Japan

41,557

4 Germany

24,771

5 UK

24,332

6 Brazil

14,232

7 France

13,171

8 South Korea

11,843

9 Australia

11,536

10 Canada

10,307

 

2017

Adspend

1 USA

197,612

2 China

85,062

3 Japan

44,695

4 UK

29,622

5 Germany

26,118

6 Brazil

16,707

7 France

13,178

8 South Korea

12,732

9 Australia

12,438

10 Canada

10,918

Source: ZenithOptimedia

Global advertising expenditure by medium

The internet is still the fastest growing medium by some distance. We estimate it grew 20.2% in 2014, and we forecast an average of 15% annual growth between 2014 and 2017.

Display is the fastest-growing internet sub-category, with 18% annual growth forecast to 2017. Here we include traditional display (such as banners), online video and social media. All three types of display are benefiting from the growth of programmatic buying, which allows agencies to target audiences more efficiently and more effectively, and improved research into consumers’ activities across different platforms and devices. We forecast traditional display to grow at 10% a year between 2014 and 2017, while online video grows at 24% a year and social media grows at 28% a year.

We expect paid search to grow at an average rate of 13% a year to 2017, driven by continued innovation from the search engines, including the display of richer product information and images within ads, better localisation of search results, and mobile ad enhancements like click-to-call and geo-targeting. Search platforms are also improving the addressability of their ads, giving advertisers more control over where, when and to whom their ads are exposed.

Online classified has been subdued since the downturn in 2009; after the initial shift from print to digital, classified publishers have had to compete with new paid-for and free alternatives for matching buyers and sellers. We forecast average annual growth of 10% for the rest of our forecast period.

Internet adspend by type 2014-2017 (US$ billion)

97.2

86.2 84.6 78.0 72.4 67.9 59.2 59.8 19.9 18.5 17.1 15.1 2014 2015 2016 2017
86.2
84.6
78.0
72.4
67.9
59.2
59.8
19.9
18.5
17.1
15.1
2014
2015
2016
2017
Total display
Classified
Paid search

Source: ZenithOptimedia/IMF

Looking at internet adspend by device reveals the dramatic ascent of mobile advertising (by which we mean all internet ads delivered to smartphones and tablets, whether display, classified or search, and including in-app ads). Mobile advertising grew by 110% in 2014, and we forecast an average annual growth rate of 44% a year between 2014 and 2017, driven by the rapid spread of devices and improvements in user experiences. By contrast we forecast desktop internet advertising to grow at an average of just 3% a year.

We estimate global expenditure on mobile advertising at US$29.8 billion in 2014, representing 22.2% of internet expenditure and 5.7% of total advertising expenditure (this total excludes a few markets where we don’t have

a breakdown by medium). By 2017 we forecast this total

to rise to US$89.5 billion, which will be 44.0% of internet expenditure and 15.0% of all expenditure. This means

that mobile will leapfrog radio, magazines, outdoor and newspapers to become the world’s third-largest medium by the end of our forecast period.

Since it began in the mid-1990s, internet advertising (both desktop and mobile) has principally risen at the expense of print. Over the last ten years internet advertising has risen from 4% of total global spend in 2004 to 25% in 2014. Meanwhile newspapers’ share of global spend has fallen from 30% to 14%, while magazines’ has fallen from 13% to 7%. Internet adspend overtook total adspend on both newspapers and magazines in 2014. We predict internet advertising will increase its share of the ad market from 25.5% in 2014 to 34.0% in 2017, while newspapers and magazines will continue to shrink, at average rates of 5% and 3% a year respectively.

Note that our figures for newspapers and magazines include only advertising in printed editions of these publications, not on their websites, or in tablet editions or mobile apps, all of which are picked up in our internet category.

Television is still by some distance the dominant advertising medium, attracting 39% of spend in 2014. Television offers unparalleled capacity to build reach, and establish brand awareness and associations. We forecast television adspend to grow by an average of 2% a year through to 2017.

Despite this growth, television’s share of global adspend

is likely to fall back over the next few years as desktop and

mobile internet grow much faster. Television’s market share has grown steadily over the last three and a half decades, from 29.6% of spend in 1980 to 39.6% in 2012. We think

it has now peaked, however; we estimate that television’s

share slipped slightly to 39.5% in 2013 and 38.8% in 2014, and forecast it to fall further to 35.9% in 2017. Marketers are also beginning to move budgets away from television to online video, which we expect to grow from 2.5% of global adspend in 2014 to 4.2% in 2017. The audiovisual share of the market will therefore fall by 1.2 percentage points, from 41.3% in 2014 to 40.1% in 2017.

Share of global adspend by medium (%)

2014

to 40.1% in 2017. Share of global adspend by medium (%) 2014 2017 Source: ZenithOptimedia Television

2017

in 2017. Share of global adspend by medium (%) 2014 2017 Source: ZenithOptimedia Television 38.8% Desktop

Source: ZenithOptimedia

Television 38.8%adspend by medium (%) 2014 2017 Source: ZenithOptimedia Desktop internet 19.8% Mobile internet 5.7% Newspapers 14.5%

Desktop internet 19.8%(%) 2014 2017 Source: ZenithOptimedia Television 38.8% Mobile internet 5.7% Newspapers 14.5% Magazines 7.2% Radio

Mobile internet 5.7%ZenithOptimedia Television 38.8% Desktop internet 19.8% Newspapers 14.5% Magazines 7.2% Radio 6.7% Outdoor 6.8%

Newspapers 14.5%Television 38.8% Desktop internet 19.8% Mobile internet 5.7% Magazines 7.2% Radio 6.7% Outdoor 6.8% Cinema 0.6%

Magazines 7.2%Desktop internet 19.8% Mobile internet 5.7% Newspapers 14.5% Radio 6.7% Outdoor 6.8% Cinema 0.6% Television 35.9%

Radio 6.7%19.8% Mobile internet 5.7% Newspapers 14.5% Magazines 7.2% Outdoor 6.8% Cinema 0.6% Television 35.9% Desktop internet

Outdoor 6.8%internet 5.7% Newspapers 14.5% Magazines 7.2% Radio 6.7% Cinema 0.6% Television 35.9% Desktop internet 19.1% Mobile

Cinema 0.6%5.7% Newspapers 14.5% Magazines 7.2% Radio 6.7% Outdoor 6.8% Television 35.9% Desktop internet 19.1% Mobile internet

Television 35.9%14.5% Magazines 7.2% Radio 6.7% Outdoor 6.8% Cinema 0.6% Desktop internet 19.1% Mobile internet 15.0% Newspapers

Desktop internet 19.1%7.2% Radio 6.7% Outdoor 6.8% Cinema 0.6% Television 35.9% Mobile internet 15.0% Newspapers 11.0% Magazines 5.7%

Mobile internet 15.0%6.8% Cinema 0.6% Television 35.9% Desktop internet 19.1% Newspapers 11.0% Magazines 5.7% Radio 6.1% Outdoor 6.6%

Newspapers 11.0%35.9% Desktop internet 19.1% Mobile internet 15.0% Magazines 5.7% Radio 6.1% Outdoor 6.6% Cinema 0.7% Mobile

Magazines 5.7%internet 19.1% Mobile internet 15.0% Newspapers 11.0% Radio 6.1% Outdoor 6.6% Cinema 0.7% Mobile is now

Radio 6.1%19.1% Mobile internet 15.0% Newspapers 11.0% Magazines 5.7% Outdoor 6.6% Cinema 0.7% Mobile is now the

Outdoor 6.6%internet 15.0% Newspapers 11.0% Magazines 5.7% Radio 6.1% Cinema 0.7% Mobile is now the main driver

Cinema 0.7%Newspapers 11.0% Magazines 5.7% Radio 6.1% Outdoor 6.6% Mobile is now the main driver of global

Mobile is now the main driver of global adspend growth. We forecast mobile to contribute a full 83% of all the extra adspend between 2014 and 2017 (again excluding markets where we don’t have a breakdown by medium). Television and desktop internet will be the second and third-largest contributors respectively, accounting for 15% and 13% of new ad expenditure respectively. The gains made by outdoor, radio and cinema will be outweighed by the continued decline of newspapers and magazines, which we expect to shrink by a combined US$14 billion over the forecast period.

Contribution to global growth in adspend by medium 2014-2017 (US$ million)

Mobile internet 59,691 Television 10,861 Desktop internet 9,563 Outdoor 3,556 Radio 1,191 Cinema 972 Magazines
Mobile internet
59,691
Television
10,861
Desktop internet
9,563
Outdoor
3,556
Radio
1,191
Cinema
972
Magazines
-3,481
Newspapers
-10,710

Source: ZenithOptimedia

Appendix

List of countries included in the regional blocs North America: Canada, USA Western & Central Europe: Austria, Belgium, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, UK Eastern Europe & Central Asia: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Bulgaria, Estonia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Russia, Turkey, Ukraine, Uzbekistan Japan Advanced Asia: Australia, Hong Kong, New Zealand, Singapore, South Korea Fast-track Asia: China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines, Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam Latin America: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, El Salvador, Mexico, Panama, Peru, Puerto Rico, Uruguay, Venezuela Middle East & North Africa: Bahrain, Egypt, Israel, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE

*We define Mature Markets as North America, Western Europe and Japan, and Rising Markets as everywhere else

METHODOLOGY

ZenithOptimedia is principally a media agency; we have offices that plan and buy media campaigns in every country we forecast. They provide us with historical ad expenditure figures from the source or sources in their country they judge to be the most reliable. We encourage them to supply us with figures that are as net as possible – that is, they take the discounts negotiated between agency and media owner into account, and exclude agency commission and production costs – but sometimes we have to use gross figures, which do not take discounts into account.

The net figures are generally compiled by an independent body that conducts a survey of advertisers, advertising agencies and media owners. This body will almost certainly respect the confidentiality of each respondent and only publish aggregate figures for each medium. Net figures are not available in some markets, generally the small ones. Gross figures are generally estimated by agencies that monitor the volume of advertising in sample members of each medium, and match each ad with the public ‘ratecard’ price of the space or time it occupies. These figures are less accurate than the net figures, but are useful because they can be broken down by advertiser, category and media owner.

Our offices then provide us with their forecasts for the next three years of growth. These are not top-down,

modelled forecasts; instead, experts in each medium provide forecasts based on their knowledge of local market conditions, the spending plans of their clients, price negotiations with media owners, and the campaigns run by their competitors.

Note that when we provide figures for top advertisers or categories in a market, these figures will always be gross. If discounts are high, then the gross expenditure from the top ten categories – and sometimes even top ten advertisers – can exceed total net ad expenditure in that market.

Figures that we quote in current prices are unadjusted, nominal figures. Figures that are in constant prices are adjusted for consumer price inflation; this allows us to compare growth rates in countries with different rates of inflation. And for those markets where expenditure is measured and supplied in US dollars rather than in local currency, we have applied the US inflation index to calculate the relevant constant price data.

We convert local-currency figures into US dollars at the average exchange rate for 2014. For our forecasts, we assume that currencies depreciate against the dollar at the rate of inflation. We do not normally apply different exchange rates to different years since currency fluctuations can obscure the underlying trends in ad expenditure.

Worldwide summary

Worldwide summary

World advertising expenditure summary (US$ million at current prices)

Major Media 1

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

North America

164,468

171,970

178,138

186,543

193,095

201,182

208,529

Western Europe 2

107,758

105,384

104,626

107,726

110,815

114,980

118,070

Asia Pacific

131,897

142,115

153,059

164,100

173,461

184,116

195,151

Central & Eastern Europe

20,899

21,524

22,932

23,583

22,221

22,891

23,919

Latin America 3

29,913

32,216

34,402

35,941

39,077

42,381

44,132

Middle East & North Africa

4,155

4,211

4,409

4,512

4,311

4,192

4,203

Rest of world 4

8,040

8,480

9,138

9,972

10,668

11,662

12,705

World

467,130

485,899

506,704

532,378

553,648

581,404

606,709

Year-on-year growth at current prices (%)

 

Major Media

11v10

12v11

13v12

14v13

15v14

16v15

17v16

North America

1.8

4.6

3.6

4.7

3.5

4.2

3.7

Western Europe

2.6

-2.2

-0.7

3.0

2.9

3.8

2.7

Asia Pacific

7.8

7.7

7.7

7.2

5.7

6.1

6.0

Central & Eastern Europe

7.6

3.0

6.5

2.8

-5.8

3.0

4.5

Latin America

12.0

7.7

6.8

4.5

8.7

8.5

4.1

Middle East & North Africa

-14.9

1.4

4.7

2.3

-4.5

-2.7

0.3

Rest of world

6.3

5.5

7.8

9.1

7.0

9.3

8.9

World

4.4

4.0

4.3

5.1

4.0

5.0

4.4

Year-on-year growth at constant prices (%)

 

Major Media

11v10

12v11

13v12

14v13

15v14

16v15

17v16

North America

-1.3

2.5

2.1

3.0

3.4

2.6

1.3

Western Europe

-0.3

-4.4

-2.2

2.2

2.8

2.6

1.2

Asia Pacific

4.5

5.5

5.4

4.6

4.0

4.1

3.5

Central & Eastern Europe

3.2

-0.7

2.8

-1.1

-11.3

-1.2

0.6

Latin America

5.8

3.3

2.0

-0.3

4.2

4.6

0.4

Middle East & North Africa

-17.5

-0.7

3.2

0.7

-4.6

-4.2

-2.1

Rest of world

3.0

3.3

6.2

7.4

6.9

7.7

6.4

World

1.1

1.7

2.3

3.0

2.8

3.1

1.9

1 TV, Print, Radio, Cinema, Outdoor, Internet 2 These totals exclude the ‘other’ category in Denmark 3 Latin America includes the 12 countries detailed separately in this report, plus nine smaller countries which are listed in the Rest of the World summary 4 ROW includes two countries detailed separately in this report plus 22 smaller countries. All 24 are listed in the Rest of the World summary

Worldwide summary

Contribution to total major-media ad expenditure by region (2014)

Contribution to total major-media ad expenditure by region (2017)

MENA

ROW

MENA

ROW

0.8%

1.9%

0.7%

2.1%

Latin America

Latin America

 
4.4% C & E Europe

4.4%

C & E Europe

North America

3.9% C & E Europe Asia Pacific 32.2% Western Europe

3.9%

C & E Europe

Asia Pacific

32.2%

Western Europe

 

35.0%

34.4%

Asia Pacific

30.8%

 
 

Western Europe

20.2%

19.5%

 

Top 20 countries by advertisers’ major media expenditure (US$ million at current prices)

 

2004

   

2014

   

2017

1 USA

161,487

USA

176,236

USA

197,612

2 Japan

41,278

China

68,372

China

85,062

3 Germany

21,511

Japan

41,557

Japan

44,695

4 UK

18,742

Germany

24,771

UK

29,622

5 China

16,062

UK

24,332

Germany

26,118

6 Italy

11,600

Brazil

14,232

Brazil

16,707

7 France

11,516

France

13,171

France

13,178

8 Australia

8,482

South Korea

11,843

South Korea

12,732

9 Spain

8,211

Australia

11,536

Australia

12,438

10 Canada

7,329

Canada

10,307

Canada

10,918

11 South Korea

7,306

Italy

9,138

Indonesia

10,099

12 Brazil

5,775

Russia

8,675

Italy

9,572

13 Netherlands

4,558

Mexico

6,317

India

8,664

14 Poland

3,944

Indonesia

6,234

Mexico

8,068

15 Switzerland

3,537

India

6,039

Russia

7,973

16 Belgium

3,098

Switzerland

6,038

Spain

7,348

17 Thailand

2,789

Spain

6,025

Argentina

6,689

18 Norway

2,755

Netherlands

5,019

Switzerland

6,245

19 Greece

2,725

Belgium

5,003

Netherlands

5,514

20 Russia

2,586

Argentina

4,612

Belgium

5,190

North America

6.8%

7.3%

Worldwide summary

Advertisers’ total major media expenditure current-price growth rates

Ten highest-growth countries (%)

2014

v 2004

   

2014

v 2013

 

2017

v 2014

Uzbekistan

910.0

Nigeria

31.7

Uzbekistan

1,474.3

Venezuela

533.1

Costa Rica

23.3

Indonesia

802.5

Indonesia

457.1

Azerbaijan

19.6

Venezuela

742.7

Pakistan

373.0

India

19.1

Argentina

573.0

Argentina

364.0

El Salvador

16.6

Panama

485.7

Panama

348.9

Pakistan

13.5

Pakistan

465.4

China

325.7

Vietnam

11.7

China

429.6

Bosnia & Herzegovina

302.1

Uruguay

11.1

Vietnam

406.4

Vietnam

280.7

Mexico

10.8

India

400.6

Colombia

279.6

Malaysia

10.7

Costa Rica

366.8

Ten lowest-growth countries (%)

 

2014

v 2004

   

2014

v 2013

 

2017

v 2014

Bahrain

-73.3

Ukraine

-37.9

Bahrain

-73.3

Hungary

-61.6

Argentina

-5.9

Lithuania

-58.5

Lithuania

-61.1

Israel

-3.9

Hungary

-57.9

Serbia

-54.0

Norway

-2.8

Greece

-55.8

Poland

-47.4

Hungary

-2.6

Serbia

-47.8

Greece

-46.6

Finland

-1.8

Poland

-43.2

Portugal

-35.0

Singapore

-1.6

UAE

-40.8

Slovakia

-32.8

Chile

-1.5

Oman

-28.5

UAE

-32.1

Qatar

-0.8

Portugal

-26.9

Oman

-28.5

France

-0.6

Slovakia

-24.4

Worldwide summary

Advertising Expenditure in US$ million at current prices

 

Total

Newspapers

Magazines

TV

Radio

Cinema

Outdoor/transport

Internet

'03

364,291

111,365

48,903

136,465

31,718

1,521

21,915

12,403

'04

390,640

116,145

50,804

149,118

33,611

1,672

23,680

15,611

'05

403,367

117,820

53,335

147,679

34,075

1,817

26,202

22,438

'06

430,189

121,922

55,074

156,967

35,417

1,941

28,414

30,454

'07

454,669

122,633

56,504

163,363

36,492

2,178

31,242

42,257

'08

455,647

114,891

53,817

165,761

34,996

2,231

30,776

53,177

'09

411,565

95,120

42,705

154,185

31,224

2,204

27,588

58,540

'10

443,137

93,917

42,952

171,753

31,573

2,394

30,192

70,356

'11

462,560

92,202

42,809

182,230

32,522

2,564

30,982

79,251

'12

480,884

87,035

40,717

190,655

33,222

2,777

32,518

93,960

'13

501,224

81,512

39,163

197,789

34,036

2,862

34,277

111,586

'14

526,215

76,275

37,689

203,926

35,340

3,037

35,833

134,116

'15

546,745

71,236

36,150

206,187

35,816

3,311

36,756

157,289

'16

573,553

68,133

35,132

211,162

36,263

3,637

38,082

181,145

'17

597,858

65,565

34,207

214,787

36,531

4,009

39,389

203,370

Note: The totals here are lower than the totals in the earlier ‘Worldwide advertising expenditure summary’ by region table, since that table includes total adspend figures for a few countries for which spend is not itemised by medium

Share of adspend by medium (%) 2014

TV 38.8%
TV 38.8%

Radio

6.7%

Newspapers 14.5%

Internet 25.5%

Magazines

7.2%

Outdoor/transport

6.8%

Cinema 0.6%

Year-on-year change at current prices (%)

7.7 7.2 6.6 5.7 5.0 4.9 4.4 4.2 4.2 4.0 3.9 3.3 0.2 -9.7
7.7
7.2
6.6
5.7
5.0
4.9
4.4
4.2
4.2
4.0
3.9
3.3
0.2
-9.7

Regional summaries

North America

Advertising Expenditure in US$ million at current prices

 

Total

Newspapers

Magazines

TV

Radio

Cinema

Outdoor/transport

Internet

'03

159,214

48,516

22,264

54,168

20,641

303

5,350

7,972

'04

168,816

50,901

23,342

58,186

21,459

339

5,571

9,018

'05

173,993

52,643

24,515

58,118

21,780

400

6,038

10,500

'06

181,791

53,878

25,433

61,289

22,151

460

6,679

11,902

'07

186,465

52,276

26,351

61,709

22,540

529

7,422

15,638

'08

179,818

46,207

24,273

60,921

20,629

608

7,550

19,629

'09

157,281

34,803

19,116

55,439

17,801

638

7,075

22,407

'10

161,521

31,572

19,332

59,595

17,421

670

7,338

25,593

'11

164,468

28,931

19,171

61,245

17,805

690

7,714

28,912

'12

171,970

26,803

18,515

65,686

18,152

725

8,029

34,059

'13

178,138

24,497

18,455

67,418

18,511

761

8,391

40,104

'14

186,543

22,629

18,181

70,088

18,859

799

8,736

47,251

'15

193,095

20,982

17,808

69,751

19,056

839

9,102

55,558

'16

201,182

19,478

17,450

70,770

19,078

881

9,482

64,042

'17

208,529

18,084

17,136

70,910

19,096

925

9,876

72,501

Share of adspend by medium (%) 2014

Newspapers 12.1% Internet 25.3% Magazines 9.7% Outdoor/ transport 4.7% Cinema 0.4% Radio 10.1% TV 37.6%
Newspapers 12.1%
Internet 25.3%
Magazines
9.7%
Outdoor/
transport 4.7%
Cinema 0.4%
Radio
10.1%
TV 37.6%

Year-on-year change at current prices (%)

6.0

4.7 4.5 4.6 4.2 3.6 3.5 3.7 3.1 2.6 2.7 1.8 -3.6 -12.5
4.7
4.5
4.6
4.2
3.6
3.5
3.7
3.1
2.6
2.7
1.8
-3.6
-12.5

Western Europe

Advertising Expenditure in US$ million at current prices

Total

Newspapers

Magazines

TV

Radio

 

Cinema

 

Outdoor/transport

 

Internet

90,019

30,383

16,609

28,513

 

5,026

   

827

   

6,487

   

2,174

94,742

30,966

16,848

31,041

5,407

836

6,604

3,040

99,855

31,424

17,102

32,179

5,826

835

7,049

5,440

106,524

32,510

17,421

33,166

5,998

807

7,279

9,343

111,956

32,729

17,294

34,102

6,180

803

7,555

13,293

111,248

30,781

16,457

32,951

6,051

710

7,427

16,871

99,146

26,074

13,213

29,500

5,518

677

6,440

17,725

105,014

26,168

13,251

32,355

5,757

742

6,775

19,966

107,758

25,420

12,945

32,303

5,849

751

6,985

23,505

105,384

23,105

11,818

30,609

5,746

758

6,866

26,481

104,626

21,090

10,865

30,209

5,650

725

6,824

29,263

107,726

19,960

10,312

31,105

5,771

744

7,001

32,835

110,815

18,745

9,787

32,109

5,810

776

7,162

36,425

114,980

17,826

9,420

32,898

5,891

782

7,311

40,852

118,070

17,015

9,073

33,543

5,976

780

7,441

44,241

Share of adspend by medium (%) 2014

 

Year-on-year change at current prices (%)

 

Newspapers 18.5%

5.2

5.4

6.7

5.9

     

5.1

             

2.6

3.0

2.9

3.8

2.7

 

-0.6

   

-0.7

 
 

Magazines

 

9.6%

 

-2.2

Radio TV 28.9% 5.4%
Radio
TV 28.9%
5.4%
-10.9
-10.9

'03

'04

'05

'06

'07

'08

'09

'10

'11

'12

'13

'14

'15

'16

'17

Internet 30.5%

Outdoor/

transport 6.5%

Cinema 0.7%

Central & Eastern Europe

'03

'04

'05

'06

'07

'08

'09

'10

'11

'12

'13

'14

'15

'16

'17

Advertising Expenditure in US$ million at current prices

Total

Newspapers

Magazines

TV

Radio

Cinema

Outdoor/transport

Internet

13,893

1,903

2,155

7,549

770

78

1,390

48

16,640

2,347

2,594

8,924

1,015

97

1,560

103

14,216

2,163

2,449

6,760

836

99

1,718

192

17,034

2,417

2,777

8,184

1,023

128

2,172

334

20,824

2,714

3,129

10,202

1,182

151

2,605

841

22,610

2,786

3,530

11,017

1,338

170

2,604

1,165

18,188

2,153

2,582

9,121

1,081

146

1,849

1,258

19,427

2,217

2,369

9,890

1,071

177

1,986

1,717

20,899

2,129

2,182

10,844

1,080

203

1,988

2,473

21,524

1,959

1,839

11,259

1,119

222

2,064

3,062

22,932

1,848

1,629

12,165

1,154

243

2,147

3,746

23,583

1,701

1,504

12,452

1,183

228

2,092

4,423

22,221

1,516

1,210

11,746

1,040

187

1,715

4,807

22,891

1,508

1,167

12,114

1,019

181

1,685

5,216

23,919

1,491

1,129

12,664

1,034

185

1,720

5,696

Share of adspend by medium (%) 2014

Outdoor/

transport 8.9%

Cinema 1.0%

Radio

5.0%

Newspapers 7.2% Internet 18.8% Magazines 6.4% TV 52.8%
Newspapers 7.2%
Internet 18.8%
Magazines
6.4%
TV 52.8%

Year-on-year change at current prices (%)

22.3

19.8 19.8 8.6 7.6 6.8 6.5 4.5 3.0 2.8 3.0 -5.8 -14.6 -19.6
19.8
19.8
8.6
7.6
6.8
6.5
4.5
3.0
2.8
3.0
-5.8
-14.6
-19.6

Asia Pacific

Advertising Expenditure in US$ million at current prices

 

Total

Newspapers

Magazines

TV

Radio

Cinema

Outdoor/transport

Internet

'03

84,194

25,990

6,718

37,062

4,277

227

7,827

2,093

'04

90,533

26,697

6,686

40,020

4,616

281

8,954

3,279

'05

95,377

26,473

7,809

40,113

4,366

307

10,237

6,072

'06

101,744

27,400

7,827

41,901

4,786

359

10,943

8,529

'07

108,612

28,280

7,861

42,961

4,932

474

12,180

11,924

'08

111,109

27,531

7,483

44,397

5,031

506

11,464

14,698

'09

106,972

25,480

6,026

43,311

4,856

520