Parvez M Chowdhury

Analyst: Pharmaceuticals and Consumer Goods

parvez@bracepl.com

British American Tobacco Bangladesh Rating: OUTPERFORM

DSE: BATBC; Bloomberg: BATBC:BD January 20, 2010

Company Summary Q3 Performance Update

52-week Price Range (BDT) 446 - 820
Current Price BDT 650.7 Investment Positives
12-month Target Price BDT 780.0
Total Return 26% British American Tobacco Bangladesh Company Limited (BATBC) is
Number of Shares mn 60.0 one of the most consistently performing consumer cyclical companies in
Market Cap BDT mn 39,042.0 Bangladesh. The company has been conducting business in the country
for over 100 years and is one of the oldest listed companies on the
BDT mn 2009A 2010E 2011E Dhaka Stock Exchange.
Revenue 17,576 20,815 23,811
Ops Income 2,908 3,911 4,428
In the last six years, the company has managed to achieve 28% return
Net Income 2,069 2,769 3,133 on equity on average with 43% each in 2008 and 2009.
Margins
Gross Margin 35% 37% 37%
The company was also able to maintain its margins (although narrow)
year after year except two consecutive years in 2005-06 when cost of
Operating Margin 17% 19% 19%
production went up because of high input prices.
Net Margin 12% 13% 13%

Growth BATBC has a debt-to-equity ratio of 0% thanks to the insignificant debt.

Revenue Growth 25% 21% 16% The company is cash rich, which helped it finance its capex internally as
well maintain a high payout ratio.
Net Income Growth 24% 34% 13%

Per Share BATBC is one of the highest dividend paying companies in Bangladesh
EPS 34 46 52 with a dividend yield of nearly 4% in 2009. Although maintaining this rate
Dividend 30 39 44 would be difficult, BATBC has shown a discipline of dividend payment in
Book Value/Share 86 93 101 the past.

Cashflow BDT mn We maintain our OUTPERFORM rating for BATBC. We also set a 12-
Operating 2,563 3,199 3,671 month fair value of BDT 780. Our recommendation considers the
Capex 271 815 1,825 superior cash-generating capacity of the company, good corporate
governance, history of protecting minority shareholder rights and the
Dividend 1,440 1,800 2,354
companys current low valuation. Our recommendation is based on an
Valuation estimated 2011 EPS of BDT 52.21 and a conservatively estimated P/E
multiple of 15x. With an estimated dividend yield of 6.0% in 2010, this
P/E 18.87x 14.10x 12.46x
target price implies an estimated total return of 25.9%.
P/B 7.56x 7.00x 6.46x
ROE 43% 52% 54%

Miscellaneous BDT mn Performance Snapshot 2007A 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E 2012E
Total Debt 25 25 25 Net Turnover BDT mn 11,933 14,030 17,576 20,815 23,811 26,131
Cash 2,000 1,020 1,432 YoY Growth 8% 18% 25% 21% 16% 13%
Debt/Equity 0% 0% 0% Operating Income BDT mn 1,302 2,290 2,908 3,911 4,428 4,879
Operating Margin 7% 11% 16% 17% 19% 19%
900 Price Performance - Last 12 Months 900,000
Net Income BDT mn 799 1,669 2,069 2,769 3,133 3,450
800 800,000
700 700,000 P/E 48.9x 23.4x 18.9x 14.1x 12.5x 11.3x
600 600,000 P/B 11.9x 8.6x 7.6x 7.0x 6.5x 5.9x
500 500,000
400 400,000
Dividend/Share BDT 3.00 7.00 24.00 30.00 39.23 44.38
300 300,000 Total Debt BDT mn 822 15 19 25 25 25
200 200,000
Total Assets BDT mn 8,040 9,988 12,020 12,998 14,112 15,128
100 100,000
- - Debt/Asset 11% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Debt/Equity 32% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Source: Company Data, BRAC EPL Research, January 2011
Volume, RHS Price, LHS

One of the oldest and largest manu-
facturing companies in Bangladesh
with some world-renowned brands in
its portfolio
Market leader in premium segment
Although the government has a
tough anti-tobacco stance, it enjoys
hefty VAT and duty from BATBC and
other cigarette manufacturers
British American Tobacco Bangladesh
(DSE: BATBC; Bloomberg: BATBC:BD)
Company Profile
British American Tobacco Bangladesh Company (BATBC) Limited is a
subsidiary of British American Tobacco, based in London, UK. Bangladesh
is one of the 68 countries in which BAT has manufacturing plants. It is one
of the oldest and largest multinational companies operating in Bangladesh.
Based in Dhaka it has one cigarette factory in Dhaka and one leaf-
processing factory in Kushtia. The company currently employs around 200
managers and 1000 employees. Listed both on the Dhaka and Chittagong
stock exchanges, the company is majority owned (66%) by a subsidiary of
its parent (Raleigh Investments). BATB started its journey as Imperial
Tobacco Company limited in the then undivided India in 1910. After
independence in 1971, Bangladesh Tobacco Company Limited (BTC) was
incorporated as a private limited company. BTC has always been a part of
BAT. In line with the global identity change, BTC was later named as British
American Tobacco Bangladesh Company Limited (BATBC) in 1998.
BATBC has one of the most efficient marketing and distribution network in
the country. It has been quick to identify market trends and equally adept at
responding to such trends. In response to threats of losing market share to
low-value competitors, it has introduced various stand-in brands in the past.
The brand portfolio of BATBC currently consists of Benson & Hedges, John
Player Gold Leaf, Pall Mall, Capstan, Star, Scissors and Pilot.
Competition
With sale of over BDT 55 billion in a market of approximately BDT 110
billion, BATBC is the largest cigarette manufacturer and marketer in the
country. Tobacco is grown under contract farming and processed at the
companys Kushtia center. All cigarette products are manufactured locally.
BATBC also exports processed tobacco, which contribute about 3% of its
total revenue. In total sales, BATBC is followed by the Dhaka Tobacco
Company (DTC) of the Akij group with a total estimated sale of BDT 18
billion in 2009. BATBC has a wide range of cigarettes for different
consumer segments, but until recently it had a near monopoly in the
premium brand market. The Benson & Hedges brand is the value leader in
premium segment. Akij group dominates in the low-price segment
principally competing with the hand-rolled cigarette manufacturers.
Recently Akij started manufacturing and marketing the world renowned
Marlboro brand. It is expected that Akij would be able to make a dent at
BATBCs monopoly in the high-value segment. However, that has not yet
materialized. BATBC in the second half has been actively trying to increase
its presence in the low-price segment. This could lead to a fierce
competition in the segment.
Anti-tobacco campaign and government response
Bangladesh is one of the early signatories of the Framework Convention on
Tobacco Control (FCTC). On theory, the government has a tough anti-
tobacco stand. However, it cannot discount the very large VAT and duty
payments that BATBC and other cigarette manufacturers make toward the
national coffers. In 2009 alone, BATBC made total payments of about BDT
37.5 billion to the government. In the last few years, the government has
legislated progressively onerous regulations for the tobacco industry,
including increase in duties and a ban on any kind of promotional
campaign. Due to two large increases in taxes, cigarette price has risen
 British American Tobacco Bangladesh
(DSE: BATBC; Bloomberg: BATBC:BD)

between 55% and 70% in the last two years. Tobacco companies in
Bangladesh are subject to two other challenges. First, import of cigarette as
a contraband item that deprives the legitimate manufacturer. Second, a
government restriction on the expansion of tobacco cultivation land, which
inflates the tobacco prices. Restricted from advertising or campaigning
directly, BATBC uses other methods to put its name known, usually under
corporate social responsibility activities. The company has been awarded
many prizes, including a few national prizes, for assisting the countrys
forestation program.

Effect on growth

Governments anti-tobacco stance
may hinder growth; however, the
effect should be some years away
Despite various challenges, BATBC has been growing its revenue by over
13% CAGR for the last six years. While most of this growth was achieved
by an increase in cigarette prices followed by higher tax rates, BATBC
managed to achieve real sales growth as well. They increased their number
of cigarettes sold by more than 6% CAGR in the last six years. This can be
explained by a young demography in the country who continue to smoke
until mature age, and relatively cheap cigarette prices. There is no doubt
that the government regulations and the anti-smoking campaigns would
slow down the consumption of tobacco. However, it might take a few years,
maybe even a decade, before such effects are visible by a declining
cigarette sale.

Performance so far this year

BATBC has continued to perform consistently in line with its performance in

Aggressive marketing and
distributing program as well as
higher depreciation lowered
operating margin in Q3
the last couple of years. However, there is a significant drop in operating
margin in 3Q10. The operating margin decreased to 16% compared to 23%
in the same period in the previous fiscal. This was a combined result of
increase in depreciation expense and an aggressive marketing and
distributing program. The company increased its asset base in the property,
plant and equipment. Moreover, the company is attempting to penetrate the
lower value segment where their presence is not very prominent. This
required a large marketing campaign for BATBC increasing the operating
expenses. This in turn also impacted in the net margin, which went down to
10% compared to 13%.

Table 1: Comparative quarterly performance

2009A 2010E 1Q09A 1Q10A 2Q09A 2Q10A 3Q09A 3Q10A 4Q09A 4Q10E 9M09A 9M10A
Gross Turnover 55,075 66,503 12,634 15,742 13,127 18,014 13,772 14,366 15,542 18,380 39,533 48,122
Supplementary Duty & VAT 37,498 45,687 8,822 10,946 9,135 12,343 9,151 9,739 10,390 12,660 27,108 33,027
% of Gross Turnover 68% 69% 70% 70% 70% 69% 66% 68% 67% 69% 69% 69%
Net Turnover 17,576 20,815 3,812 4,797 3,992 5,671 4,621 4,627 5,152 5,721 12,425 15,095
Cost of Sales 11,464 13,114 2,411 2,906 2,593 3,867 2,928 2,837 3,533 3,504 7,931 9,609
Gross Profit 6,113 7,702 1,401 1,891 1,399 1,805 1,693 1,790 1,619 2,216 4,494 5,486
Gross Margin 35% 37% 37% 39% 35% 32% 37% 39% 31% 39% 36% 36%
Operating Profit 2,908 3,911 635 997 864 1,355 1,053 743 357 817 2,552 3,094
Operating Margin 17% 19% 17% 21% 22% 24% 23% 16% 7% 14% 21% 21%
Net Profit 2,069 2,769 437 624 581 919 619 468 432 758 1,637 2,011
Net Margin 12% 13% 11% 13% 15% 16% 13% 10% 8% 13% 13% 13%

Source: Company Data, BRAC EPL Research, January 2011

 British American Tobacco Bangladesh
(DSE: BATBC; Bloomberg: BATBC:BD)

Meeting with Management

Management is optimistic about the
momentum of the company
In our meeting with the BATBC management it was revealed that the company
completed its plant asset expansion in 1Q10, which increased capacity by 25%,
from 24 billion sticks to 30 billion sticks annually. 2009 was remarkable for
profitability because of two price increases. Currently all price increase is
negotiated with the government. The government allowed a price increase after
15 years in 2007. The company was also allowed to increase price in the last
quarter of 2010 in exchange of slightly higher supplementary duty and VAT.
BATBC is also taking many small measures to reduce costs, such as reduction
of wastage. BATBC currently holds 75% of the market share in value in the
premium segment because of its leadership in the segment. The company
expects to continue this position. BATBC is increasingly using local tobacco in
its premium products, reducing dependence on imported high-quality leaves.
Export of leaves is also increasing. Furthermore, if BATBC can consolidate its
position in lower price segments, they will be able to improve their top line even
more. The VAT and duty imposed on them has increased slightly to 69% from
68% on the gross turnover.

Outlook

Margins and profitability are
expected to increase despite
growing burden of supplementary
duty and VAT
BATBC is likely maintain the momentum in the market as the closest rival DTC
has so far failed to make any considerable damage to BATBCs stronghold in
premium segment. Moreover, BATBC is on the counter-attack by focusing more
on lower price segment. If BATBC can indeed make a good foothold in the
lower segment, it should help the top line and bottom line as well as margins.
We expect that the revenue from the lower segment will enhance profitability
from 4Q10 onwards. The supplementary duty and VAT is expected to gradually
grow as high as 72% of gross turnover by 2015 as part of governments anti
tobacco stance.

Table 2: Future Outlook

Indicators 2007A 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E 2012E
Earning Per Share (BDT) 13.32 27.81 34.48 46.15 52.21 57.49
Dividend per share (BDT) 7.00 24.00 30.00 39.23 44.38 48.87
Book Value Per Share 54.75 75.56 86.04 92.96 100.79 109.41

Sales Growth 8% 18% 25% 21% 16% 13%

Earning Growth 121% 109% 24% 34% 13% 10%
Dividend Growth 133% 243% 25% 31% 13% 10%
Dividend Yield 1% 4% 4% 6% 7% 7%

Duty and VAT/Gross Turnover 68% 69% 68% 69% 69% 70%

Gross Profit Margin 30% 36% 35% 37% 37% 37%

Operating Margin 11% 16% 17% 19% 19% 19%
Net Margin 7% 12% 12% 13% 13% 13%

Return on Equity 27% 43% 43% 52% 54% 55%

Return on Assets 11% 18% 19% 22% 23% 23%
Source: Company Data, BRAC EPL Research, January 2011

Liquidity

Stocks are fairly liquid with about
BDT 121 mn average daily turnover
in the last 12 months
Almost 66% of the shares of BATBC are held by its parent company. Another
22% is held by local institutions including ICB and Sadharan Bima, leaving
close to 12% for the public float. However, ICB has been selling its shares and
has reduced its holding from 24% in 2006 to 17% in 2009. Average daily trade
for the last 12 months was about 200,000 shares or about BDT 121 million.
 British American Tobacco Bangladesh
(DSE: BATBC; Bloomberg: BATBC:BD)
Valuation

DCF and comparative valuations
gave similar fair values. With our fair
value of BDT 780 and dividend yield
of 6.0%, 12-month return will be
25.9%
Our DCF valuation gave us a fair value per share of BDT 785.23. We con-
sidered a discount rate of 13.0% and a terminal growth rate of 5.0%. We
have also used five consumer discretionary companies trading in the DSE
for comparison purposes. The average P/E and P/B, respectively, of these
companies are 22.5x and 8.2x. At a P/E multiple of 18.9x and a P/B of 7.6x,
BATBC is trading at a discount to these companies. Using a P/E multiple of
15.0x on estimated 2011 EPS of BDT 52.21 implies a 12-month fair value
of BDT 783.22.

From our DCF and comparative valuation, we arrived at a fair value of

BDT 780. With an estimated dividend yield of 6.0%, our fair price
would provide a 12-month total return of 25.9%.

Table 3: Discounted FCF

BDT 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Operating cash mn 2,563 3,199 3,671 4,031 4,510 4,861 5,176

Capital expenditure mn -815 -1,825 -596 -634 -675 -718 -765
Change in debt mn 6
1,754 1,374 3,075 3,396 3,834 4,142 4,412
Net terminal value mn 57,928
Terminal Value mn 57,903
Terminal debt mn -25
Net free cash flow mn 1,754 1,374 3,075 3,396 3,834 4,142 62,340

Discount rate 13.0%

Terminal growth rate 5.0%

NPV (BDT mn) 47,114

NPV/Share 785.23
Source: Company Data, BRAC EPL Research, January 2011

Table 4: Comparative Valuation*

Current
Other consumer discretionary Price EPS P/E BVPS P/B
BATA Shoe 541.90 32.85 16.5x 71.06 7.6x
Apex Adelchi Footwear 3669.75 188.03 19.5x 653.42 5.6x
AMCL (PRAN) 1335.00 54.49 24.5x 475.10 2.8x
Reckitt Benckiser 934.80 41.90 22.3x 61.39 15.2x
Marico Bangladesh 486.00 16.45 29.5x 49.86 9.7x
Average 22.5x 8.2x
Average (excluding anomalies) 20.7x 6.4x
BATBC (2009) 650.7 34.48 18.9x 86.04 7.6x
* All EPS and BVPS figures are from audited reports of latest fiscal year (2009)

BATBC valuation EPS BV

2011 estimates 52.21 100.79
Multiple 15.0x 7.0x
Target price 783.22 705.53
Target price 780.00
Price return 19.87%
Dividend yield 6.03%
Total Return 25.90%
Source: Company Data, DSE, BRAC EPL Research, January 2011
 British American Tobacco Bangladesh
(DSE: BATBC; Bloomberg: BATBC:BD)

Table 5: Income Statement

2007A 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E 2012E

Net Turnover 11,933 14,030 17,576 20,815 23,811 26,131

Cost of Sales 8,389 8,999 11,464 13,114 15,001 16,462
Gross Profit 3,545 5,031 6,113 7,702 8,810 9,668
Operating Expenses 1,826 2,317 2,815 3,334 3,814 4,186
Depreciation Expenses 416 423 389 456 568 604
Operating Profit 1,302 2,290 2,908 3,911 4,428 4,879
Other Income
EBIT 1,302 2,290 2,908 3,911 4,428 4,879
Interest Expenses 46 -76 -32 -25 -25 -25
Profit before WPPF 1,256 2,367 2,941 3,937 4,454 4,904
Allocationn to WPPF 118 147 197 223 245
EBT 1,256 2,248 2,794 3,740 4,231 4,659
Tax 457 580 725 971 1,098 1,209
PAT 799 1,669 2,069 2,769 3,133 3,450
Source: Company Data, BRAC EPL Research, January 2011

Table 6: Cash Flow Statement

BDT mn 2007A 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E 2012E

Operating Activity
Net Income 2,769 3,133 3,450
Add back non cash expense 456 568 604
Change in working capital -26 -30 -23
Cash Flow from operations 1,519 1,444 2,563 3,199 3,671 4,031

Investing Activity
Capital Expenditure -1,825 -596 -634
Cash Flow from Investing -223 -271 -815 -1,825 -596 -634

Financing Activity
Dividend Paid -2,354 -2,663 -2,932
Cash flow from Financing -985 -413 -1,426 -2,354 -2,663 -2,932

Net cash 312 761 322 -980 412 464

Beginning Balance 606 918 1,678 2,000 1,020 1,432
Cash in Hand 918 1,678 2,000 1,020 1,432 1,896
Source: Company Data, BRAC EPL Research, January 2011
 British American Tobacco Bangladesh
(DSE: BATBC; Bloomberg: BATBC:BD)

Table 7: Balance Sheet

BDT mn 2007A 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E 2012E

Cash 918 1,678 2,000 1,020 1,432 1,896

Advance Tax 891 1,273 2,118 2,118 2,118 2,118
Trade debtors 288 855 514 589 673 739
Inventory 2,245 2,719 3,578 4,092 4,681 5,138
Total Current Assets 4,342 6,526 8,211 7,820 8,905 9,891

Fixed Asset- at cost 6,586 6,834 7,473 9,298 9,894 10,529

Less: Accumulated Depreciation 2,887 3,371 3,663 4,120 4,688 5,292
Net Fixed Assets 3,698 3,463 3,809 5,178 5,207 5,237

Total Non Current Assets 3,698 3,463 3,809 5,178 5,207 5,237

Total Assets 8,040 9,988 12,020 12,998 14,112 15,128

Liabilities & Equities:

Current Liabilities:
Short term bank loan
Sundry creditors 2,942 3,275 3,911 4,474 5,118 5,617
Proposed final dividend
Provision for corporate tax 1,078 1,548 2,338 2,338 2,338 2,338
Total Current Libilities 4,020 4,822 6,249 6,812 7,456 7,955

Deferred Liability(gratuity) 218 187 222 222 222 222

Deferred tax liability 502 427 361 361 361 361
Obligation under finance lease 15 19 25 25 25 25
Total Non Current liabilities 735 633 608 608 608 608

Total Liabilities 4,755 5,455 6,857 7,420 8,064 8,563

Shareholder's Equity
Paidup Capital 600 600 600 600 600 600
Revenue reserve 2,620 3,869 4,497 4,913 5,383 5,900
Other reserve 65 65 65 65 65 65
Total Equity 3,285 4,534 5,162 5,577 6,047 6,565

Total Liabilities & Equities 8,040 9,988 12,020 12,998 14,112 15,128
Source: Company Data, BRAC EPL Research, January 2011
 British American Tobacco Bangladesh
(DSE: BATBC; Bloomberg: BATBC:BD)

Table 8: Indicators and Ratios

2007A 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E 2012E

Dividend (BDT mn) 420 1,440 1,800 2,354 2,663 2,932

Retained Earnings (BDT mn) 379 229 269 415 470 517
Payout ratio 53% 86% 87% 85% 85% 85%

Per share figures

Number of shares (mn) 60.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 60.0
Earning Per Share (BDT) 13.32 27.81 34.48 46.15 52.21 57.49
Dividend per share (BDT) 7.00 24.00 30.00 39.23 44.38 48.87

Total Debt (BDT mn) 15 19 25 25 25 25

Debt/Total Assets 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Debt/Total Equity 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Sales Growth 8% 18% 25% 21% 16% 13%

Earning Growth 121% 109% 24% 34% 13% 10%
Dividend Growth 133% 243% 25% 31% 13% 10%
Dividend Yield 1% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8%

Duty and VAT/Gross Turnover 68% 69% 68% 69% 69% 70%

Cost of Sales/Sales 70% 64% 65% 63% 63% 63%

Gross Profit Margin 30% 36% 35% 37% 37% 37%

Operating CostsSales 15% 17% 16% 16% 16% 16%

Operating Margin 11% 16% 17% 19% 19% 19%

Net Margin 7% 12% 12% 13% 13% 13%

Return on Equity 27% 43% 43% 52% 54% 55%

Return on Assets 11% 18% 19% 22% 23% 23%

Effective Tax Rate 36% 26% 26% 26% 26% 26%

NC Working Capital -596 25 -39 -13 17 40

Increase in NC Working Capital 682 621 -64 26 30 23

Book Value Per Share 54.75 75.56 86.04 92.96 100.79 109.41
Source: Company Data, BRAC EPL Research, January 2011
 British American Tobacco Bangladesh
(DSE: BATBC; Bloomberg: BATBC:BD)

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