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Homework 2
Math 425: Summer 2017
due Friday, July 14

All solutions to written homework problems must be clearly written, with explanations.
A number or sequence of equations without explanation will not get credit. You are
encouraged to work with other students on the homework, but solutions must be written
independently. Homework is due at the start of class (1 pm) on the due date.

1. One of your friends likes buying scratch-off lottory tickets. One day, upon reading in
the fine print that the probability of winning is one in a thousand, he wistfully wishes
aloud that he could afford one thousand tickets so that he could be sure to win.

(a) Whats wrong with his logic? If he could buy a thousand tickets, whats the
probability he would win?
(b) How many tickets would he have to buy to have a 90% chance of winning?

Solution: (a) We might guess that our friend is making the very common mistake of
adding probabilities when it is not valid to do so. Buying two tickets does not double
his chances of winning; if that were the case, buying 2,000 tickets means his probability
of winning is... 2? So that cant be right.

999 n


If he buys n tickets, the probability that none of the tickets are winners is 1000 .
Using the complement, the probability that our friend has at least one winning ticket
999 1000


among 1000 purchased is 1 1000 0.63.

999 n ln(0.1)


(b) From above, we need to solve 1 1000 = 0.9. We find that n = ln(0.999) 2301.4,
so that he needs to buy 2302 tickets to have a 90% chance of winning.

2. Two fair six-sided dice are rolled.

(a) What is the conditional probability that at least one lands on a 6 given that the
dice land on different numbers?
(b) What is the probability that at least one of the dice shows a 6 given that the sum
of the dice is k, where k = 2, 3, . . . , 12?

Solution: (a) There are 36 equally likely rolls. Let E be the event that we get a six
and F be the event that the dice land on different numbers. There are 6 ways the dice
can land on the same number, so there are 36 6 = 30 ways the dice can land on
different numbers, and P (F ) = 30/36 = 5/6. Next, we count the number of ways we
can get a six and the dice land on different numbers. There are 1 5 ways to get a six
on the first roll, and a different number on the second, and 5 1 way to get a non-six
 on the first roll and a six on the second. Thus P (E F ) = 5+5
36
= 5/18. The answer is
then
10
P (E F ) 1
P (E|F ) = = 36
30 = .
P (F ) 36
3

(b) Let E be the event that at least one of the dice shows a 6, and Fk the event that
the sum of the dice is k. Clearly P (E|Fk ) = 0 if k < 7. If 7 k 12, we may calculate
the probabilities directly or by using the fact that

P (EFk )
P (E|Fk ) = ;
P (Fk )

in either case the results are readily calculated by enumeration. We have

k 7 8 9 10 11 12
2 1 1 1 1 1 1
P (EFk ) 36
= 18 18 18 18 18 36
6 1 5 1 1 1 1
P (Fk ) 36
= 6 36 9 12 18 36
2 1 2 1 2
P (E|Fk ) 6
= 3 5 2 3
1 1

3. Suppose that we have 10 coins, which are weighted so that when flipped the ith coin
shows heads with probability p = i/10 (i = 1, . . . , 10).

(a) If we randomly select a coin, flip it, and get heads, what is the probability that
it is the 3rd coin?
(b) What is the probability that it is the ith coin?

Solution: (a) Let Ei denote the event the ith coin was selected, for i = 1, . . . , 10. Let
H denote the event that the coin flip landed heads. We want to calculate

P (E3 H)
P (E3 |H) =
P (H)

First we must calculate the probability of heads.

10 10 10
X X X i 1 55
P (H) = P (H Ei ) = P (H|Ei )P (Ei ) = = .
i=1 i=1 i=1
10 10 100

Next
3 1 3
P (E3 H) = P (H|E3 )P (E3 ) = = .
10 10 100
Thus
3
100 3
P (E3 |H) = 55 = .
100
55

(b) The preceding is easy to repeat for arbitrary i; the resulting probability is just
P (Ei |H) = 55i .
4. A red die, a blue die, and a yellow die (all fair and six sided) are rolled. We are
interested in the probability that the number appearing on the blue die is less than
the number appearing on the yellow die, which is less than the number appearing on
the red die. Let this event be E.
(a) What is the probability that no two of the dice land on the same number?
(b) Given that no two of the dice land on the same number, what is the conditional
probability that event E occurs?
(c) What is P (E)?
Solution: (a) There are 63 ways to choose three distinct numbers and 3! orderings

of those numbers. There 63 equally likely outcomes for the rolls of three dice, so the
probability of three distinct outcomes is
6


3
3! 5
3
= .
6 9
(b) Given that the three dice land on different numbers, all possible orderings are
equally likely. There are 3! orderings, so the answer is 16 .
(c) Let N be the event that all three rolls are different. Then
1 5 5
P (E) = P (EN ) + P (EN c ) = P (E|N )P (N ) + 0 P (N c ) = = .
6 9 54

5. Let E1 , E2 , and F be events, with P (F ) > 0. Use the definition of conditional

probability along with other results from class to show that Property 3 also holds for
conditional probabilities; that is, show that
P (E1 E2 |F ) = P (E1 |F ) + P (E2 |F ) P (E1 E2 |F ).

Solution: By the definition of conditional probability, we know

P ((E1 E2 ) F ) P ((E1 F ) (E2 F ))
P (E1 E2 |F ) = = ,
P (F ) P (F )
where the second equation follows by the distributive property of intersections and
unions. Now by Property 3 (for regular probabilities), we know that this numerator
is equal to P (E1 F ) + P (E2 F ) P (E1 E2 F ). So, again using the definition,
P (E1 F ) + P (E2 F ) P (E1 E2 F )
P (E1 E2 |F ) =
P (F )
= P (E1 |F ) + P (E2 |F ) P (E1 E2 |F ).

Note: It is not mathematically sound to start with the given equation and manipulate
both sides until they are the same. This amounts to assuming what youre supposed to
be proving. (E.g., you could use this method to prove that 1 = 1 by squaring both
sides!) You need to start with the expression on one side and rewrite it in various ways
until it becomes the expression on the other side.
6. It is important to consider blood type for both the recipient and donor for any blood
transfusion: type AB recipients can receive blood of any type, and type A or B recip-
ients can receive blood of their own type or type O, but type O recipients can only
receive O type blood. Given that the percentages of type O, A, B, and AB in the pop-
ulation are 34%, 38%, 20%, and 8% respectively, find the probability that a random
donor can give blood to a random recipient. Hint: Condition on the blood type of the
recipient.

Solution: Choose a recipient randomly. Let E be the event that a random donor can
give blood to this recipient, and let the events A, B, AB, and O denote the events that
the recipient is of these respective types. Then by the Law of Total Probability,

P (E) = P (E|O)P (O) + P (E|A)P (A) + P (E|B)P (B) + P (E|AB)P (AB)

= P (O)P (O) + (P (A) + P (O))P (A) + (P (B) + P (O))P (B) + 1 P (AB)
= .34 .34 + (.38 + .34) .38 + (.2 + .34) .2 + 1 .08 0.577,

where, for example, P (E|B) = P (B) + P (O) since a B-type recipient can receive type
B or O blood.
7. Consider the problem facing a park service if someone is reported to have entered a
wilderness area and not returned. The service may mount a search by considering
different regions that cover the area and searching in them sequentially. For the jth
region, there is a probability j that the missing person will not be found even if the
person is actually in the region. Suppose that the area is divided into four regions, and
that the park service estimates that the missing person has an equal chance of being
in any of the four regions.
(a) If they search the first region and fail to find the missing person, what is the
conditional probability that the person is actually in that region? In each of the
other three regions?
(b) Now suppose that the park service searches the second region as well and also
fails to find the missing person. What is the probability that the person is in the
first region? The second? The third? The fourth?
Solution: (a) Let Ej be the event that the missing person is in region j and Fj the
event that region j has been searched and the missing person wasnt found there. Then
we want to find
P (Ej F1 )
P (Ej |F1 ) =
P (F1 )
P (F1 |Ej ) P (Ej )
= .
P (F1 |E1 )P (E1 ) + P (F1 |E2 )P (E2 ) + P (F1 |E3 )P (E3 ) + P (F1 |E4 )P (E4 )
For j = 1, since for example P (F1 |E2 ) = 1 and P (E2 ) = 1/4, this is
1 41 1
P (E1 |F1 ) = = .
1 41 + 3 1
4
1 + 3
For j = 2, 3, 4, we have
1
P (Ej |F1 ) = .
1 + 3
(b) Proceeding as before, we are looking for

P (Ej F1 F2 )
P (Ej |F1 F2 ) =
P (F1 F2 )
P (F1 F2 |Ej ) P (Ej )
= .
P (F1 F2 |E1 )P (E1 ) + P (F1 F2 |E2 )P (E2 ) + P (F1 F2 |E3 )P (E3 ) + P (F1 F2 |E4 )P (E4 )

Then for j = 1, 2 we have

j /4 j
P (Ej |F1 F2 ) = = ,
1 /4 + 2 /4 + 2/4 1 + 2 + 2

and for j = 3, 4 we have

1
P (Ej |F1 F2 ) = .
1 + 2 + 2