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BJORN WYGRALA and OLIVER SCHENK, Schlumberger Aachen Technology Center
KENNETH PETERS, Schlumberger Information Solutions
A rctic oil and gas have been E&P targets for several
decades; however, the petroleum potential of this
region is far from being fully understood. Assessments of
undiscovered petroleum in the Arctic indicate that it holds
a signicant amount of the worlds undiscovered gas and oil
(Gautier et al., 2009) and recent assessments also indicate the
potential of shale resource plays for oil and gas, for example
on the Alaska North Slope (Houseknecht, 2012). In this
article, we present technology and workows for ecient
petroleum exploration risk and resource assessments for both
conventional and unconventional resources in the Arctic,
including gas hydrates. We also present a recent successful
exploration campaign which resulted in the rst technically
proven shale oil play on the Alaska North Slope.
This will demonstrate the value of applying the same ap-
proach to other Arctic petroleum provinces, resulting in: (a) Figure 1. Map of the Alaska North Slope shows the area included in
increased understanding of existing and hypothetical petro- the 3D petroleum systems model (shaded). Seismic lines (gray) and
leum systems; (b) more accurate assessments of the remaining well locations (red) were used to create structure and isopach maps.
Green outlines the National Petroleum Reserve Alaska (NPRA) and
potential hydrocarbon resources on a regional scale; (c) more Arctic National Wildlife Reserve (ANWR).
accurate screening of exploration opportunities and assess-
ments of exploration risk; and (d) an ecient, geology-based
and auditable approach to petroleum exploration risk and re- to forward simulate (i.e., from the geologic past to the pres-
source assessments for both conventional and unconventional ent) the thermal history of a basin and the associated genera-
oil and gas. tion, migration, and accumulation of petroleum (Hantschel
and Kauerauf, 2009; Peters, 2009). These results are then
Petroleum systems modeling combined with statistical assessments to enable improved as-
Using all available geological and geophysical (G&G) data to sessments of the petroleum resources, therefore enabling the
create multidimensional models of petroleum systems is the entire sequence of analyses from petroleum exploration risk
only technology that can integrate and process all available to resource assessments to be supported.
geologic data to enable a complete assessment of the potential
value of the hydrocarbon resources. The reason is that it adds Petroleum systems model of the Alaska North Slope
the results of a geologic-process-based analysis to the exist- As an example, we use an Alaska North Slope 3D petroleum
ing G&G data to provide critical additional information. system model which reconstructs, quanties, and evaluates
For example, it is the only method that enables hydrocarbon the individual petroleum systems, burial history, thermal
properties and oil versus gas distribution to be understood evolution, and migration, accumulation, and preservation
and predicted, which is critical for the dierentiation of shale of hydrocarbons (Schenk et al., 2012). The results of this
resource plays into oil- and gas-prone targets. geologic framework enable improved exploration risk as-
Petroleum systems modeling enables the dynamics of sessments and also provide an assessment of the remaining
sedimentary basins and their associated uids to be evalu- potential hydrocarbon resources in this remote, but prolic
ated to see if past conditions were suitable for generation of region. The model is also used to investigate unconventional
hydrocarbons to ll potential reservoirs and to be preserved. resources to predict the type and quantity of hydrocarbon
Applications include predictions of the extent and timing of remaining in the source rocks, as well as for assessments of
petroleum generation and expulsion or retention from source gas-hydrate distributions.
rocks, reconstructions of basin architecture, migration path- The Alaska North Slope petroleum systems model provides
ways, locations of potential traps and accumulations, and an example of an assessment study for both conventional and
analysis of risk based on various geologic, geochemical, or unconventional resources, and is fully scalable from megare-
uid-ow assumptions (Magoon and Dow, 1994; Peters et gional to prospect. The model was constructed and analyzed
al., 2009). The technology uses deterministic computations in collaboration with the U.S. Geological Survey, the worlds
Figure 7. Extent of gas-hydrate stability zone on the Alaska North Slope at 250,000 years before present, 120,000 years before present, and at
present. Green area is hydrate and ice; red area is hydrate and water stability zone.
based on a rigorously applied methodology, key risk factors Summary and conclusions
are frequently not included and they are not covered by a The workow from G&G data to petroleum systems model-
fully auditable workow. The value of the results is therefore ing that we have demonstrated using the Alaska North Slope
limited and there can be signicant dierences, even with the model is eminently suited for applications in the Arctic. We
same given data. It is therefore essential to standardize meth- have shown a case study of the successful delineation of a
ods and tools for resource assessments, based on scientically new shale oil unconventional play on the Alaska North Slope
sound and industry-standard geoscientic analyses, to docu- and thereby proven its eectivity as a tool for exploration risk
ment the procedures that are used, and to ensure that the and resource assessments in the Arctic. It is particularly suit-
analysis is complete, ecient, and relevant to support petro- ed to delineating oil versus gas prospectivity and resources
leum exploration activities. for both conventional and unconventional reservoirs as well
Some specic requirements that need to be fullled by as for gas hydrates, all critical topics in Arctic exploration.
petroleum resource assessment methodologies and workows The exploration risk assessment workow that has been
include: (1) close coupling with complete workows from demonstrated using the Alaska North Slope 3D model can be
national data repositories to data packages used for lease sales subdivided into three main steps: (1) data reviewed for qual-
and bid rounds, using industry standard G&G data-handling ity control and assembly of an integrated G&G data model;
tools, (2) application to the widely diering types and quality (2) petroleum systems modeling to obtain process based in-
of data availability in various basins from frontier to well- formation; and (3) mapping all G&G and petroleum systems
explored areas, (3) provision of rigorous, scientically based data into play chance maps and assessment units.
and objective assessment methodology, (4) consideration of These steps can then be extended to cover risk/uncer-
all key exploration risk factors enabling the entire range of tainty analysis for all G&G and petroleum systems data and
assessments from megaregional to play and even to prospect statistical assessment of resources for conventional and un-
scale to be handled as required, (5) complete integration of conventional oil and gas.
uncertainty analyses and risk assessments and delivery of Even with sparse data, petroleum systems modeling can
output in industry standard formats, and (6) applicability to be used to more denitively indicate the type of hydrocarbon
support both conventional and unconventional petroleum likely to be discovered and therefore to more accurately delin-
resource assessments. eate assessment units. If the entire workow from the origi-
nal G&G data and petroleum systems modeling to the nal
Application to Arctic areas statistical analysis of the resources is ecient, the assessment
The U.S. Geological Survey assessed the area north of the Arc- can then be constantly updated and maintained as new data
tic Circle and concluded that approximately 30% of the worlds become available. It then provides an opportunity to regularly
undiscovered gas and 13% of the worlds undiscovered oil may re-evaluate the petroleum potential of the assessment unit(s),
be found there, most likely oshore with water depths of less and the Alaska North Slope model is an excellent example
than 500 m (Gautier et al., 2009). Undiscovered natural gas of the benets of being able to extend an exploration risking
is largely concentrated in Russia and here mainly in the Rus- workow into a complete resource assessment system.
sian Arctic. Currently the activities focus is the South Kara Sea,
which represents the continuation of the West Siberian Basin. References
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