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Research Division
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION of REALTORS
Amid sustained job creation and still historically low mortgage rates,
REALTORS reported strong homebuying demand in July 2017.
Properties continued to sell at a brisk pace, and homebuyers faced
higher prices as supply remained low relative to demand.
Demand from first-time buyers continued to increase at a modest pace.
More REALTORS expect strong than weak market conditions in
the next six months compared to current market conditions.
Amid tight supply, most respondents expect constant or increasing
prices in the next 12 months.
REALTORS reported tight inventory and rising interest rates as the
key issues affecting current conditions and the 12-month outlook.
Median Expected Price Growth in Next 12 Months (%) 2.7 3.4 2.8
*This is a diffusion index. An index greater than 50 indicates strong conditions and an index less than 50 indicates weak conditions.
**Non-primary residence use refers to the primary use of the property for either vacation or residential rental.
respondents reported 50 52
40
strong than weak
30
market conditions in July 20
2017 compared to the 10
same month last year. 0
200801
200805
200809
200901
200905
200909
201001
201005
201009
201101
201105
201109
201201
201205
201209
201301
201305
201309
201401
201405
201409
201501
201505
201509
201601
201605
201609
201701
201705
Single-family Townhome Condominium
Compared to
conditions in the
same month last year,
buyer traffic
conditions were
stable (no change in
conditions) to very
strong, except in
Delaware where
conditions were
weak.
*For graphical purposes, index values less than or equal to 25 are labeled Very Weak, values of 25.01 to
45 are labeled Weak, values of 45.01 to 55 are labeled Stable, values of 55.01 to 75 are labeled
Strong, and values greater than 75 are labeled Very Strong.
Compared to
conditions in the same
month last year, seller
conditions were
strong only in nine
states and the District
of Columbia.
*For graphical purposes, index values less than or equal to 25 are labeled Very Weak, values of
25.01 to 45 are labeled Weak, values of 45.01 to 55 are labeled Stable, values of 55.01 to 75
are labeled Strong, and values greater than 75 are labeled Very Strong.
Fifty-one percent of 60
properties were on the
market for less than one 40
20%
201212
201302
201304
201306
201308
201310
201312
201402
201404
201406
201408
201410
201412
201502
201504
201506
201508
201510
201512
201602
201604
201606
201608
201610
201612
201702
201704
201706
July 2017 REALTORS CONFIDENCE INDEX SURVEY
More Clients Took Home Tours
another indicator of
2.0
strong buyer interest in
the housing market.
1.0
0.0
201601
201602
201603
201604
201605
201606
201607
201608
201609
201610
201611
201612
201701
201702
201703
201704
201705
201706
201707
July 2017 REALTORS CONFIDENCE INDEX SURVEY
Offers Per Client Held Steady
1.0
0.5
0.0
201510
201511
201512
201601
201602
201603
201604
201605
201606
201607
201608
201609
201610
201611
201612
201701
201702
201703
201704
201705
201706
201707
*Regardless of acceptance
condominium properties 80
71
70
were above 50, indicating 60 57
more respondents 50
51
expected conditions to 40
strengthen rather than 30
NARs 2016 Profile of Home Buyer and Sellers (HBS) reports that among primary residence home buyers, 35 percent were first-time home buyers, up
from 32 percent in 2015. The HBS surveys primary residence home buyers, while the monthly RCI Survey surveys REALTORS and captures purchases
for investment purposes and vacation/second homes. The U.S. Census Bureau defines the Millennial generation as those born in 19822000.
*NARs 2016 Profile of Home Buyer and Sellers (HBS) reports that among primary residence home buyers, 28 percent were 18-34 years old.
The HBS surveys primary residence home buyers, while the monthly RCI Survey surveys REALTORS and captures purchases for investment
purposes and vacation/second homes.
NARs 2016 Profile of Home Buyer and Sellers (HBS) reports that among primary residence home buyers, 41 percent rented an apartment or house prior to
their home purchase. The HBS surveys primary residence home buyers, while the monthly RCI Survey surveys REALTORS and captures purchases for investment
purposes and vacation/second homes.
0%
200810
200902
200906
200910
201002
201006
201010
201102
201106
201110
201202
201206
201210
201302
201306
201310
201402
201406
201410
201502
201506
201510
201602
201606
201610
201702
201706
July 2017 REALTORS CONFIDENCE INDEX SURVEY
Sellers Received Two Offers on Average
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
201510
201511
201512
201601
201602
201603
201604
201605
201606
201607
201608
201609
201610
201611
201612
201701
201702
201703
201704
201705
201706
201707
July 2017 REALTORS CONFIDENCE INDEX SURVEY
Sellers Offered Few Incentives
201609
201610
201611
201612
201701
201702
201703
201704
201705
201706
201707
Primary Vacation Investment Property (Rental) Other* Dont Know*
30%
Between Listing and Contract
Acceptance
20%
Between Contract Acceptance and
10% 18% 20% 21% 18% Closing
After Closing (Leaseback)
0%
201704 201705 201706 201707
*Source: Freddie Mac, downloaded from Haver Analytics. Average mortgage rates peaked at 4.3 percent in the week of March 16, 2017.
terminated.
percent were
In MayJuly 2017,
of contracts were
settled on time, 25
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
0%
100%
201501-201503
201502-201504
201503-201505
201504-201506
201505-201507
201602-201604
Contract was settled on time
201603-201605
201604-201606
201605-201607
201606-201608
Contract Settlement
201607-201609
Most Contracts Settled on Time
201608-201610
201609-201611
201610-201612
Contract was delayed but eventually went into settlement
201611-201701
201612-201702
201701-201703
201702-201704
201703-201705
201704-201706
2%
201705-201707
72%
25%
Financing and Appraisals Topped List of
Delays
Problems Encountered for Contracts That Were Delayed in
Issues related to MayJuly 2017*
obtaining financing and 40% 37%
35%
appraisal were the most 30%
23%
common causes of 25%
20% 17%
contract settlement 15% 13%
10% 8%
delays in MayJuly 2017. 10% 5% 5%
2%
5%
0%
*Delayed contracts accounted for 25 percent of closed or terminated contracts during this period.
REALTOR respondents
reported conditions of low
inventory, shortage, and
rising interest rate as
major issues in July 2017.
The RCI Survey gathers information from REALTORS about local market conditions
based on their client interactions and the characteristics of their most recent sales
for the month.
The July 2017 survey was sent to 75,000 REALTORS who were selected from
NARs nearly 1.2 million members through simple random sampling and to 7,903
respondents in the previous three surveys who provided their email addresses.
There were 2,751 respondents to the online survey which ran from August 18,
2017. The surveys overall margin of error at the 95 percent confidence level is 1.9
percent.* The margins of error for subgroups and sample proportions of below or
above 50 percent are larger.
NAR weights the responses by a factor that aligns the sample distribution of
responses to the distribution of NAR membership.
*Based on 2,751 respondents out of 1.2 million NAR members and a 50 percent proportion estimate.
To find out about other products from NARs Research Division, visit:
https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics
Research Division
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION of REALTORS