Documente Academic
Documente Profesional
Documente Cultură
INSIGHT
GUJARAT
ISBN
ISBN 938059069-5
: 978-93-80590-69-1
ElectionsinIndia.com i
Editor & Director
Dr. R.K. Thukral
Research Editor
Dr. Shafeeq Rahman
ISBN : 978-93-80590-69-1
Price : Rs.5000/-
Printed in India
An Analysis of Assembly Constituencies
Election Results of
GUJARAT
for Assembly Election 2012 & Assembly
Segment of Parliamentary Election 2014
Pre-Election Insight Gujarat : 2012 - 2014
PREFACE
Gujarat goes to the polls to elect members for the 14th Legislative Assembly. Each election is a turning
point in the history of a democratic nation. The upcoming elections to be held in the last quarter of 2017
will decide whether people repose their faith in the current incumbent government or look for alternatives.
Interestingly, for the first time Gujarat could be turned into a trilateral contest with the traditional rivals, the BJP
against Congress and debutant AAP. Moreover, the importance of some other political parties like Gujarat
Parivartan Party (GPP), Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), Janata Dal (United) and alliance of Shiv Sena with
Hardik Patel cannot be neglected. Gujarat is mainly a BJP dominating state who has ruled the state since
1995. But this time apart from anti-incumbency factor, the issue of rejecting the Patidar reservation might
change the Gujarat politics in forthcoming 2017 assembly elections as Patel community is known from
the very beginning a community loyal to the BJP. On the other hand, the confidence level of the INC has
increased from the results in the Gujarat municipal polls in which the BJP retained the urban municipal
corporations while the Congress managed to win the panchayats.
Most of the time it is observed that the demographic composition of a constituency comprising its population
by religious group, caste and literacy therein, reservation nature of the constituency and its location in rural
or urban areas affects the election results significantly. The importance of the election data can never be
neglected since every political party, pressure group, political analyst, political scholars and individual are
interested in the election results so that they can easily chalk out the weak and strong regions of the political
parties, candidate performance in their constituency, impact of demographic profiles, loss and gains of
legislative seats, vote difference and swings of votes among the contesting political parties.
This report has been made by keeping into consideration the usefulness of analysis of the past election
result with linking of socio-religious profile of AC arises in a wider prospective in the contemporary era for
the pre-election readiness by the analysis of previous election results. In it thematic maps has been used
to put up a detail insight report of the state assembly election results and the assembly segments of the
parliamentary election since these maps are recognised as the most excellent method to present the sea
of information at a glance. The unique feature of this report is its notable attempt to analyse the variables of
the last assembly result 2012 and the assembly segment in Parliamentary election 2014 comparatively, so
that the readers can have a crystal clear picture of the changing situations of the Gujarat elections in the
forthcoming Assembly election 2017.
This report of analysis is divided into nine chapters, leading from the basic features of Assembly constituencies,
demographic profile of the state, electoral features, election results and analysis of results, vote difference
and swings, state level time series comparison, top ten ranking of assembly constituencies and candidates
and the supporting datasheets.
This report is a reader oriented one and mainly aimed at serving as a pre-election reference book which
would be resourceful for politicians, policy makers, researchers, psephologists, media professionals and
academia that have interest in election politics of Indian states.
ElectionsinIndia.com v
Pre-Election Insight Gujarat: 2012 - 2014
RR Turnout :-
YY Gujarat voters turnout was 63.60% in 2014 Parliamentary Election, as compared with 71.30% in 2012 Assembly Election.
YY Dediyapada (ST) AC under Bharuch PC has maximum voters turnout 85.44% in 2014 Parliamentary Election and 88.26%
in 2012 Assembly Election.
YY In 2014 Parliamentary Election, minimum voters turnout was 46.68% in Kutiyana AC under Porbandar PC and 57.38% in
Garbada (ST) AC in 2012 Assembly Election.
YY As much as 59.69% of female and 67.17% of male voters in 2014 Parliamentary Election, as compared with 69.50% of
female and 72.94% of male voters in 2012 Assembly Election exercised their franchise.
YY Assembly Election 2012 has seen the highest voters-turnout in the state since first assembly election with 71.30% of the
electorate casting vote. The previous highest was 64.39% recorded in 1995 Assembly Election.
RR Candidates :-
YY In 2014 Parliamentary Election, the total 334 candidates contested the election as compared with 1666 candidates in
2012 Assembly Election.
YY In 2014 Parliamentary Election, the maximum number of 25 candidates contested from Jamnagar PC while maximum
number of 20 candidates contested from Limbayat AC in 2012 Assembly Election.
YY In 2014 Parliamentary Election, the minimum number of 4 candidates contested from Chhota Udaipur PC while the
minimum number of 3 candidates contested from Fatepura (ST) AC in 2012 Assembly Election.
RR Election Results :-
YY In 2014 Parliamentary Election, the maximum number of 179275 votes secured by Vasava Parbhubhai Nagarbhai in
Kamrej AC under Bardoli (ST) PC as compared with 154599 votes in 2012 Assembly Election by Patel Anandiben Mafatbhai
in Ghatlodia AC.
YY In 2014 Parliamentary Election, the minimum number of 46 votes secured by NYP candidate Patel Piyushkumar Dashrathlal
in Sabarmati AC under Gandhinagar PC as compared with 72 votes secured by an Independent candidate Ghadiyali
Mohmmad Najim Mahemudmiya in Surat North AC in 2012 Assembly Election.
YY In 2014 Parliamentary Election, the minimum number of 43413 votes secured by a winner Radadiya Vithalbhai Hansrajbhai
in Kutiyana AC under Porbandar PC as compared with 37246 votes in 2012 Assembly Election by Vaghasiya Vallabhbhai
Vasharambhai (V.V.Vaghasiya) in Savarkundla AC.
YY Ghatlodia AC under Gandhinagar PC with 147374 votes (Winner 178931 votes, Runner-up 31557 votes) has the
maximum winning margin in 2014 Parliamentary Election as compared to 110395 votes (Winner- 154599 votes, Runner-
up- 44204 votes) in 2012 Assembly Election.
YY Dangs (ST) AC under Valsad (ST) PC with 221 votes (Winner 56281 votes, Runner-up 56060 votes) has the minimum
winning margin in 2014 Parliamentary Election as compared to Sojitra (SC) AC with 162 votes (Winner 65210 votes,
Runner-up 65048 votes) in 2012 Assembly Election.
vi ElectionsinIndia.com
Pre-Election Insight Gujarat : 2012 - 2014
YY More than 4.5 lakh voters, (1.8%) chose NOTA. In 109 Assembly constituencies, NOTA were the third choice of voters.
YY In 2014 Parliamentary Election, 26 candidate won among 78 candidates fielded by National parties as compared to 178
won among 545 candidates in 2012 Assembly Election.
YY In 2014 Parliamentary Election, 0 candidates won among 98 candidates fielded by state parties and un-recognised
registered parties as compared to 3 won among 453 candidates fielded by state parties and un-recognised registered
parties in 2012 Assembly Election.
YY In 2014 Parliamentary Election, 0 candidates won among 158 Independent candidates contested as compared with 1
won among 668 Independent candidates contested in 2012 Assembly Election.
YY In 2014 Parliamentary Election, 334 candidates contested the election and an average number of contestants per
parliamentary constituency were 13 as compared with 1666 candidates contested in Assembly Election 2012 and an
average contestants per seat were 9 contestants.
RR Seats & Winning Percentage :-
YY INC contested 176 ACs in 2012 Assembly Election and was the winner, runner-up and third in 61, 114 and 1 ACs,
respectively. In 2014 Parliamentary Election, it contested in 175 ACs (25 PCs) and was winner, runner-up and third in 17,
158 and 0 ACs, respectively.
YY BJP contested 182 ACs in 2012 Assembly Election and was the winner, runner-up and third in 115, 64 and 3 ACs,
respectively. In 2014 Parliamentary Election, it contested in 182 ACs (26 PCs) and emerged winner, runner-up and third in
165, 17 and 0 ACs, respectively.
YY In 2014 Parliamentary Election, BJP secured 59.05% votes as compared to 47.85% in 2012 Assembly Election.
YY In 2014 Parliamentary Election, INC secured 32.86% votes as compared to 38.93% in 2012 Assembly Election.
RR Polarity :-
YY In 2012 Assembly Election, Single-party dominated ACs were 24 out of which BJP, INC and GPP won 20, 3 and 1 seats
respectively. While amongst 59 single-party dominated ACs in 2014 Parliamentary Election, BJP won all 59 seats.
YY In 2012 Assembly Election, the numbers of Bi-polar ACs were 142 and major contest on 138 seats was between BJP-INC
out of which 86, 54 & 2 seats won by BJP, INC and NCP respectively, while amongst 122 Bi-polar ACs in 2014 Parliamentary
Election major contest was between BJP-INC on 117 seats out of which 105 & 17 seats won by BJP & INC respectively.
YY In 2012 Assembly Election, the numbers of Tri-polar ACs were 14 and main contest was among BJP-INC-GPP on 6 seats
and BJP-INC-IND on 6 seats, out of which 12 & 2 seats won by BJP & INC respectively, while BJP won in single Tri-polar AC
in 2014 Parliamentary Election, where contest was among BJP-INC-JD(U).
RR Social Groups :-
YY By general-reserved break up, Scheduled Castes Reserved, Scheduled Tribes Reserved, Scheduled Castes dominated,
Scheduled Tribes dominated and General ACs are 13, 27, 1, 40 and 142 respectively.
YY Out of 13 SC reserved constituencies, seats won by INC fell from 3 in 2012 Assembly Election to 1 in 2014 Parliamentary
Election, while those won by BJP increased from 10 in 2012 Assembly Election to 12 in 2014 Parliamentary Election.
YY Out of 27 ST reserved constituencies, seats won by INC declined from 16 in 2012 Assembly Election to 8 in 2014
Parliamentary Election, while those won by BJP increased from 10 in 2012 Assembly Election to 19 in 2014 Parliamentary
Election.
YY 1 SC dominated constituency, seat won by INC remained same in 2012 Assembly Election and in 2014 Parliamentary
Election.
YY Out of 40 ST dominated constituencies, seats won by INC declined from 16 in 2012 Assembly Election to 8 in 2014
Parliamentary Election, while those won by BJP increased from 23 in 2012 Assembly Election to 32 in 2014 Parliamentary
Election.
YY Out of 142 unreserved (general) constituencies, seats won by INC, GPP, NCP & IND fell from 42, 2, 2 & 1 in 2012 Assembly
Election to 8, 0, 0 & 0 in 2014 Parliamentary Election respectively, while those won by BJP increased from 95 in 2012
Assembly Election to 134 in 2014 Parliamentary Election.
RR Religious Groups :-
YY Hindu, Muslim and Jain dominated ACs are 159, 21 and 2 respectively.
YY Out of 159 Hindu-dominated constituencies, seats won by INC, GPP, NCP, JD(U) & IND fell from 53, 2, 2, 1 & 1 in 2012
Assembly Election to 14, 0, 0, 0 & 0 in 2014 Parliamentary Election respectively, while those won by BJP increased from
100 in 2012 Assembly Election to 145 in 2014 Parliamentary Election.
YY Out of 21 Muslim-dominated constituencies, seats won by INC fell from 8 in 2012 Assembly Election to 3 in 2014
Parliamentary Election, while those won by BJP increased from 13 in 2012 Assembly Election to 18 in 2014 Parliamentary
Election.
ElectionsinIndia.com vii
v
YY Out of 2 Jain-dominated constituencies, seats won by BJP remained same 2 in 2012 Assembly Election and in 2014
Parliamentary Election.
RR Rural-urban break-up :-
YY Rural, Urban and Rural + Urban assembly ACs are 38, 34 and 110 respectively.
YY Out of 38 Rural constituencies, seats won by INC, GPP, JD(U) & IND fell from 18, 1, 1 & 1 in 2012 Assembly Election to 6,
0, 0 & 0 in 2014 Parliamentary Election respectively, while those won by BJP increased from 17 in 2012 Assembly Election
to 32 in 2014 Parliamentary Election.
YY Out of 34 Urban constituencies, seats won by INC fell from 4 in 2012 Assembly Election to 2 in 2014 Parliamentary Election,
while those won by BJP increased from 30 in 2012 Assembly Election to 32 in 2014 Parliamentary Election.
YY Out of 110 Rural + Urban constituencies, seats won by INC, GPP & NCP fell from 39, 1 & 1 in 2012 Assembly Election to
9, 0 & 0 in 2014 Parliamentary Election respectively, while those won by BJP increased from 68 in 2012 Assembly Election
to 101 in 2014 Parliamentary Election.
06 Estimated Population 12
53-54 Winner and Runner-up among Winning Margin Less than 2000 Votes 64-65
55-56 Winner and Runner-up among Winning Margin Between 2000 to 5000 Votes 66-67
57-58 Winner and Runner-up among Winning Margin Between 5000 to 10000 Votes 68-69
59-60 Winner and Runner-up among Winning Margin Between 10000 to 20000 Votes 70-71
61-62 Winner and Runner-up among Winning Margin Above 20000 Votes 72-73
65-66 Winner and Runner-up among Winning Margin Less than 5% Votes 76-77
67-68 Winner and Runner-up among Winning Margin Between 5% to 10% Votes 78-79
69-70 Winner and Runner-up among Winning Margin Between 10% to 15% Votes 80-81
71-72 Winner and Runner-up among Winning Margin Between 15% to 25% Votes 82-83
x ElectionsinIndia.com
Pre-Election Insight Gujarat : 2012 - 2014
73-74 Winner and Runner-up among Winning Margin Above 25% Votes 84-85
75-76 NOTA Votes are more than Winning Margin and Winner & Runner-up therein 86-87
83-84 Distribution of Winner & Runner-up Parties in Above Average Poll Percentage 94-95
85-86 Distribution of Winner & Runner-up Parties in Below Average Poll Percentage 96-97
87-88 Distribution of Winner & Runner-up Parties in Hindu Dominated ACs 98-99
89-90 Distribution of Winner & Runner-up Parties in Muslim Dominated ACs 100-101
91-92 Distribution of Winner & Runner-up Parties in Jain Dominated ACs 102-103
93-94 Distribution of Winner & Runner-up Parties in Scheduled Castes (SC) Dominated ACs 104-105
95-96 Distribution of Winner & Runner-up Parties in Scheduled Castes (SC) Reserved ACs 106-107
97-98 Distribution of Winner & Runner-up Parties in Scheduled Tribes (ST) Dominated ACs 108-109
99-100 Distribution of Winner & Runner-up Parties in Scheduled Tribes (ST) Reserved ACs 110-111
101-102 Distribution of Winner & Runner-up Parties in Unreserved (General) ACs 112-113
107-108 Distribution of Winner & Runner-up Parties in Rural + Urban ACs 118-119
109-110 Vote Difference & Swing Impact of BJP against INC 122-123
111-112 Vote Difference & Swing Impact of BJP against BJP 124-125
113-114 Vote Difference & Swing Impact of INC against BJP 126-127
115-116 Vote Difference & Swing Impact of INC against INC 128-129
ElectionsinIndia.com xi
Pre-Election Insight Gujarat: 2012 - 2014
Top Ten Assembly Constituencies with Highest and Lowest Poll Percentage 136
Top Ten Winner Candidates Secured Highest and Lowest Numbers of Votes 137
Top Ten Winner Candidates with Highest and Lowest Acceptance in Total Electors 138
Top Ten Candidate with Highest and Lowest Winning Vote Margin 139
I. Data Information
J. Annexure
Disclaimer 199
xii ElectionsinIndia.com
Pre-Election Insight Gujarat: 2012 - 2014
2011
18 ElectionsinIndia.com
Pre-Election Insight Gujarat : 2012 - 2014
ElectionsinIndia.com 43
Pre-Election Insight Gujarat : 2012 - 2014
ElectionsinIndia.com 63
Pre-Election Insight Gujarat: 2012 - 2014
Map No. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Estd. Estd.
Number and Name District-wise Rural, Urban Estd.
Parliamentary Res. and Estd. % of % of
of AC Distribution of and Religious
Constituency wise Unres. Pop. - Rural Urban
Assembly Rural+Urban Dominance* -
Distribution of AC AC 2011 Pop. - Pop. -
Constituencies AC 2011
No. of AC Name of AC 2011 2011
1 Abdasa Kachchh Kachchh (SC) GEN Rural 326457 100 0 M
2 Mandvi Kachchh Kachchh (SC) GEN Rural+Urban 356592 80 20 M
3 Bhuj Kachchh Kachchh (SC) GEN Rural+Urban 342498 38 62 M
4 Anjar Kachchh Kachchh (SC) GEN Rural+Urban 335132 74 26 M
5 Gandhidham (SC) Kachchh Kachchh (SC) SC Rural+Urban 434298 25 75 H
6 Rapar Kachchh Kachchh (SC) GEN Rural+Urban 297394 90 10 H
7 Vav Banaskantha Banaskantha GEN Rural 369497 94 6 H
8 Tharad Banaskantha Banaskantha GEN Rural 327289 91 9 H
9 Dhanera Banaskantha Banaskantha GEN Rural 346526 91 9 H
10 Danta (ST) Banaskantha Banaskantha ST Rural 357193 95 5 H
11 Vadgam (SC) Banaskantha Patan SC Rural 344079 92 8 M
12 Palanpur Banaskantha Banaskantha GEN Rural+Urban 334456 58 42 H
13 Deesa Banaskantha Banaskantha GEN Rural+Urban 358515 69 31 H
14 Deodar Banaskantha Banaskantha GEN Rural 328587 94 6 H
15 Kankrej Banaskantha Patan GEN Rural 354553 95 5 H
16 Radhanpur Patan Patan GEN Rural+Urban 349624 89 11 H
17 Chanasma Patan Patan GEN Rural+Urban 331354 89 11 H
18 Patan Patan Patan GEN Rural+Urban 349326 62 38 H
19 Siddhpur Patan Patan GEN Rural+Urban 313241 77 23 M
20 Kheralu Mahesana Patan GEN Rural 275247 92 8 H
21 Unjha Mahesana Mahesana GEN Rural+Urban 269061 68 32 H
22 Visnagar Mahesana Mahesana GEN Rural+Urban 262246 71 29 H
23 Becharaji Mahesana Mahesana GEN Rural 291478 94 6 H
24 Kadi (SC) Mahesana Mahesana SC Rural+Urban 341407 76 24 H
25 Mahesana Mahesana Mahesana GEN Rural+Urban 337926 41 59 H
26 Vijapur Mahesana Mahesana GEN Rural+Urban 257699 86 14 H
27 Himatnagar Sabarkantha Sabarkantha GEN Rural+Urban 340710 70 30 H
28 Idar (SC) Sabarkantha Sabarkantha SC Rural+Urban 350261 82 18 H
29 Khedbrahma (ST) Sabarkantha Sabarkantha ST Rural 397038 92 8 H
30 Bhiloda (ST) Arvalli Sabarkantha ST Rural 391711 93 7 H
31 Modasa Arvalli Sabarkantha GEN Rural+Urban 329358 79 21 H
32 Bayad Arvalli Sabarkantha GEN Rural+Urban 304229 90 10 H
33 Prantij Sabarkantha Sabarkantha GEN Rural+Urban 315282 87 13 H
34 Dehgam Gandhinagar Ahmedabad East GEN Rural+Urban 268562 84 16 H
35 Gandhinagar South Gandhinagar Ahmedabad East GEN Rural+Urban 175948 82 18 H
36 Gandhinagar North Gandhinagar Gandhinagar GEN Rural+Urban 109598 51 49 H
37 Mansa Gandhinagar Mahesana GEN Rural+Urban 262493 88 12 H
38 Kalol Gandhinagar Gandhinagar GEN Rural+Urban 321474 41 59 H
39 Viramgam Ahmedabad Surendranagar GEN Rural+Urban 346828 84 16 H
40 Sanand Ahmedabad Gandhinagar GEN Rural+Urban 407833 52 48 H
41 Ghatlodia Ahmedabad Gandhinagar GEN Rural+Urban 44723 16 84 H
42 Vejalpur Ahmedabad Gandhinagar GEN Urban 296305 0 100 H
43 Vatva Ahmedabad Ahmedabad East GEN Rural+Urban 37648 67 33 H
44 Ellisbridge Ahmedabad Ahmedabad West (SC) GEN Urban 364847 0 100 J*
45 Naranpura Ahmedabad Gandhinagar GEN Urban 353554 0 100 H
46 Nikol Ahmedabad Ahmedabad East GEN Urban 357670 0 100 H
47 Naroda Ahmedabad Ahmedabad East GEN Urban 7588 0 100 H
48 Thakkarbapa Nagar Ahmedabad Ahmedabad East GEN Urban 345058 0 100 H
49 Bapunagar Ahmedabad Ahmedabad East GEN Urban 281729 0 100 M
50 Amraiwadi Ahmedabad Ahmedabad West (SC) GEN Urban 359239 0 100 H
51 Dariapur Ahmedabad Ahmedabad West (SC) GEN Urban 304050 0 100 M
52 Jamalpur - Khadia Ahmedabad Ahmedabad West (SC) GEN Urban 314061 0 100 M
53 Maninagar Ahmedabad Ahmedabad West (SC) GEN Urban 326139 0 100 H
54 Danilimda (SC) Ahmedabad Ahmedabad West (SC) SC Urban 316098 0 100 M
55 Sabarmati Ahmedabad Gandhinagar GEN Urban 307429 0 100 J*
56 Asarwa (SC) Ahmedabad Ahmedabad West (SC) SC Urban 332016 0 100 H
57 Daskroi Ahmedabad Kheda GEN Rural+Urban 211991 73 27 H
58 Dholka Ahmedabad Kheda GEN Rural+Urban 298667 72 28 H
59 Dhandhuka Ahmedabad Surendranagar GEN Rural+Urban 314164 79 21 H
60 Dasada (SC) Surendranagar Surendranagar SC Rural+Urban 305299 90 10 H
61 Limbdi Surendranagar Surendranagar GEN Rural+Urban 359309 88 12 H
62 Wadhwan Surendranagar Surendranagar GEN Rural+Urban 359325 29 71 H
63 Chotila Surendranagar Surendranagar GEN Rural+Urban 339757 81 19 H
Contd
142 ElectionsinIndia.com
Pre-Election Insight Gujarat : 2012 - 2014
ElectionsinIndia.com i
PRE-ELECTION INSIGHT
GUJARAT
ISBN
ISBN 938059069-5
: 978-93-80590-69-1