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Using the MRI and SPDR ETFs to

Optimize Asset Allocations


For multi-asset investors seeking performance in an absolute return framework,
identifying the prevailing market regime is paramount for optimizing asset allocations.

Knowing the prevailing market regime can help investors target MARKET REGIMES
the optimal asset allocation mix. Here we show you how our By design, the MRI signal varies between 0 and 100%. This is
Market Regime Indicator can be used with our SPDR ETFs to further refined to give 5 analytically distinct regimes within the
easily build transparent, balanced and robust portfolios that market cycle:
are positioned for growth whilst maintaining strong defensive
capabilities. Crisis A time of intense difficulty or danger. An unstable
time in the markets, often characterised by extreme market
SSgA developed the Market Regime Indicator (MRI) a volatility. Ultimately, Crises come to an end and can represent
proprietary forward-looking indicator that continuously an inflection point in market sentiment.
monitors market conditions so that asset allocation can be
tailored to capture opportunities for growth whilst seeking High Risk Aversion A period where investors increase their
to minimise downsiderisks. The indicator uses a variety of levels of risk aversion and generally seek protective strategies
factors that reflect the multi-asset and global nature of capital or favour less volatile assets.
markets including:
Normal Neutral market sentiment.
An equity implied volatility factor Implied volatilities Low Risk Aversion Low risk aversion market.
may forecast future actual volatilities and increased selling of
put options which indicates risk aversion. Euphoria A time of exaggerated well-being and
overconfidence in market expectations often associated with
A currency implied volatility factor Currency volatility very low market volatility. Similar to Crisis, Euphoria does not
has a direct impact on asset returns, and volatility increasing last forever, and one needs to expect regime changes.
through currency pairs may indicate weaker market appetite
for risk taking. The prevailing market regime indicated by the MRI reflects,
and to an extent predicts, market sentiment and allows us to
A credit spread factor Widening of credit spreads calculate appropriate risk budgets and, ultimately, optimized
signals that increased risk premiums are required to take on asset allocations.
credit risk. The underlying assumption is that investor risk
aversion increases along with the credit spread factor level.
The indicator closely tracks historical market stress events,
is predictive of changing market environments and
importantly trading strategies based on the indicator tend to
generate positive outperformance. Our Investment Solutions
Group has successfully used the MRI for some time as one of
the key inputs into its global tactical asset allocation decision-
making process.

FIGURE 1: MARKET REGIME INDICATOR SINCE 2000


Regime Aware
Active Risk Budget Market Regime %
Low/Medium Crisis 100
Low High Risk Aversion 90

Medium Normal 66

High Low Risk Aversion 33

Medium/High Euphoria 10
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
n Market Events

spdrseurope.com
MARKET REGIME INDICATOR Q1 2014 FIGURE 2: MODEL EUROZONE PORTFOLIO FOR THE
While the MRI signal reached Normal Risk Aversion (from CURRENT MRI REGIME
Euphoria) in January 2014, it ended the quarter in Low Risk
EMU Governement Bonds: US Equities
Aversion regime. The MRI remained in Low risk regime 10% 20%
throughout the whole month of March with the exception of
18 March when it briefly switched to Normal regime. This Cash: Europe Equities
increase in the signal was primarily driven by the equity 10% 9%
implied volatility factor which spiked close to the Crisis
threshold over geopolitical concerns in Ukraine and the Pacic Equities
5%
slowdown in the Chinese economy. All three factors then
declined progressively throughout the second part of March
Global Small Cap
as stress levels in the markets receded, ending the month Euro Corp Bonds Equities 1%
close to the Euphoria threshold. All Maturities:
30% Emerging Market
Equities 1%
Currently, two out of three factors Implied Volatilities on
Currencies and Risky Debt Spread are in Euphoria regime. Euro High Yield
The Implied Volatilities on Equities factor, on the other hand, 4%
is in the Low risk regime. Real Estate
5%
Low Medium High Commodities
5%
RI SK I NDI CATOR
MA RKET REGI M E I NDI CATOR

Crisis High Risk Aversion Normal Low Risk Aversion Euphoria

FIGURE 3: IMPLEMENTING THE MODEL EUROZONE PORTFOLIO USING SPDR ETFs


TICKER BLOOMBERG

PORTFOLIO COMPOSITION INVESTMENT VEHICLE WEIGHT (%) ISIN ETC INDEX TFE (%)

Developed Market Equities: US SPDR S&P 500 ETF 10 IE00B6YX5C33 SPY 5 GY SPTR500N 0.15
SPDR S&P 500 Low
Developed Market Equities: US 10 IE00B802KR88 SPY 1 GY SP5LVIN 0.35
Volatility ETF
Developed Market Equities: Europe SPDR MSCI Europe ETF 9 FR0000001885 ERO FP MSEREURP 0.30
SPDR S&P Pan Asia Dividend
Developed Market Equities: Pacific 5 IE00B9KNR336 ZPRA GY SPDGPAUN 0.55
Aristocrats Index ETF
SPDR MSCI World Small
Global Small Cap Equities 1 IE00BCBJG560 ZPRS GY NCUDWI 0.45
Cap ETF
SPDR MSCI Emerging Markets
Emerging Market Equities 1 IE00B469F816 SPYM GY NDUEEGF 0.65
ETF
SPDR Barclays Euro High Yield
Euro High Yield 4 IE00B6YX5M31 SYBJ GY BEHLTREU 0.45
Bond ETF
SPDR Dow Jones Global Real
REITS 5 IE00B8GF1M35 SPYJ GY DWGRSN 0.40
Estate ETF
DJUBS Commodity
Commodities 5 - DNH4 Index DJUBS Index -
Index Future
Total (1) GROWTH ASSETS 50

SPDR Barclays Euro Corporate


Euro Corporate Bonds Long Dated 30 IE00B3T9LM79 SYBC GY BEHLTREU 0.20
Bond ETF
Euro Corporate Bonds SPDR Barclays 0-3 Year Euro
0 IE00BC7GZW19 SPBD GY DWGRSN 0.20
Short Dated Corporate Bond ETF
EMU Governement Bonds SPDR Barclays Euro Government
0 IE00B3S5XW04 SYBB GY DJUBS Index 0.15
Long Dated Bond ETF
Total (2) MEDIUM RISK ASSETS 30

EMU Governement Bonds SPDR Barclays 1-3 Year Euro


10 IE00B6YX5F63 SYB3 GY LET1TREU 0.15
Short Dated Government Bond ETF
Liquid Cash Euro Cash 10 - - - -
Total (3) CAPITAL PRESERVATION ASSETS 20

Total (1)+(2)+(3) 100

The information contained above is for illustrative purposes only.

2
MARKET PULSE Q1 2014
Because it introduced a measure of cloudiness over the global growth outlook, the opening quarter of 2014 proved frustrating for investors who
expected a benign continuation of rising bond yields and expanding share valuations. Downbeat activity indicators in China, as well as heightened
tensions in Ukraine, served to accentuate the unaccustomed sense of malaise, leading broad fixed income indices to outperform major equity
benchmarks over the first three months of the year.

Indeed, after a difficult 2013, fixed income markets opened 2014 on a firm note, and the improvement was sustained enough that most bonds
delivered solid positive returns for the first quarter as a whole and this despite the start of the tapering process by the US Federal Reserve.

Although the underlying appeal of equities weakened in the first quarter, a number of markets posted positive returns as financial conditions stayed
extraordinarily accommodative with central banks remaining committed to keeping volatility restrained Janet Yellen, newly appointed chair of
the US Federal Reserve, offered reassuring testimony on policy continuity. Not to be outdone, Mario Draghi of the European Central Bank and Mark
Carney of the Bank of England reiterated their own accommodative language, allowing several equity indices to regain positive year-to-date territory
before February was through.

THE BENEFITS OF USING ETFS FOR OUR TACTICAL


ASSET ALLOCATION:
Easy access to a wide spectrum of different asset classes, countries and investment styles
Can achieve consistent returns from particular markets by tracking an index
Easy and straightforward way to build exposure within a high turnover systematic framework
High levels of transparency in the portfolio holdings
Two-way market-making liquidity provides flexibility to move in and out of the market quickly
Regulated open-ended fund structure
Low fee levels for expenses and management

3
ABOUT SPDR ETFs BLOOMBERG PAGE
Offered by State Street Global Advisors, SPDR ETFs Enter SPDR <GO> to find us on Bloomberg.
provide professional investors with the flexibility to select
investments that are precisely aligned to their investment CONTACT US
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Global Advisors created the first ETF in 1993 (SPDR S&P
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intimate knowledge of the ETF market and over 30 years of
indexing experience. Today we manage nearly $388B in over Or call your local SPDR ETFs representative.
200 ETFs worldwide.
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SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY US) is not registered for sale in Europe.
United Kingdom +44 (0)20 3395 6888

As of 31 March 2014.

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4
continued
Markets (Stichting Autoriteit Financile Markten). The Companies have completed Investing in foreign domiciled securities may involve risk of capital loss from
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accordingly, investment institutions (beleggingsinstellingen) according to Section other nations.
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For Investors in Norway: The offering of SPDR ETFs by the Company has liquid than investing in developed markets and may involve exposure to economic
been notified to the Financial Supervisory Authority of Norway (Kredittilsynet) in structures that are generally less diverse and mature and to political systems which
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Company may market and sell its shares in Norway. larger, better known companies.
For Investors in Spain: SSgA SPDR ETFs Europe I plc and SSgA SPDR ETFs Europe Investing in REITs involves certain distinct risks in addition to those risks associated
II plc have been authorised for public distribution in Spain and are registered with the with investing in the real estate industry in general. Equity REITs may be affected by
Spanish Securities Market Commission (Comisin Nacional del Mercado de Valores) changes in the value of the underlying property owned by the REITs, while mortgage
under no.1244 and no.1242. REITs may be affected by the quality of credit extended. REITs are subject to heavy
A copy of the Prospectuses and Key Investor Information Documents, the Marketing cash flow dependency, default by borrowers and self-liquidation. REITs, especially
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and semi-annual reports of SSgA SPDR ETFs Europe I plc and SSgA SPDR ETFs value of the REIT may decline).
Europe II plc may be obtained from the Spanish distributors. The complete lists of Although bonds generally present less short-term risk and volatility risk than stocks,
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as defined by Article 10(3) of the Swiss Act on Collective Investment Schemes (CISA) International Government bonds and corporate bonds generally have more moderate
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2014 State Street Corporation. All Rights Reserved. ID0954-IBGE-1036 0314 Expiration Date: 31/3/2015

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