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  • Levy, Howard The Causes of War

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    war and peace

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    Levy, Howard the Causes of War (2)

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    war and peace

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    6 vizualizări19 pagini

    Levy, Howard The Causes of War

    Încărcat de

    jassonmujica
    war and peace

    Drepturi de autor:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Descărcați ca PDF sau citiți online pe Scribd
    Indicator pentru conținut neadecvat
    din 19
    Turbulent Peace The Challenges of Managing International Conflict Edited by Chester A. Crocker, Fen Osler Hampson, and Pamela Aal! & UNITED STATES INSTITUTE OF PEACE PRESS ‘Weshingtoa, DC. A.oLANCe THROUGH dhe table of contents of ‘his ylome reveals how dramatically our per~ ‘eplion of international eon have changed Since the end ofthe Cold Was. Conventional Concer about superpower confroatation, the balance of ows lanes ame aces, and de~ terrence have given way to nev concerns Aout regional conflics,ethnonaional was, ‘religious militancy, resouresearty and env ronmental degradaon, preventive diplomacy, ing and haan intervention. ‘This shift infocus redects some unmistakable changes in patterns of warfare: over the past five centuies war between the great powers he significa increased in severity but d= finished in frequency over the past Give ‘A Lzvels-oF-ANMsts APpRoAcH antytitrn ea staan Spaeiemeorne ade ee hes fine becuse a = spies Seniemaeece aaa reeereermens ‘wars that plague the contemporary woe, tnd Talo relate some contemporary theoves of ethnonational confit w older theories of ‘rest power Wa ‘SysTEMIC-LevEL SOURCES OF INTERNATIONAL CONFLICT ‘The traditional tert on dhe causes of war has been dominated by the realist paradigm, 2 sytemic level ppeoach tha incorporates = ‘al distinc theories These cheosis al posit ate ey ator ar veig tt hata to advance thei secur, pow, ‘which ie charac terized by the ack of legiiate authority to ‘regulate disputes and enforce agreements be- ‘oven state Any lng with uncertainties abcde peiaslitamiee nett sy nei thle the postin in the toy dope worst {Bk bu pee tary eng ane Atle core threat to adrance he ine ‘ence te area mania ‘epithe cree hpi hat international xtomes ar deemed by, ot at eat are significantly constrained by, the ‘distribution of power beeen two of more states, though direntconceptions of power tndofthe nana ofthe tem ead diferent theories and diferent preditons about what tho specie outcomes re Inthe realist worldviews occur not eet ss Hits Germany in 1999), buts because ‘ofthe unintended consquences of actions by ‘those who prefer pea: to war and who are ‘more inteeted in presi thi security han inemending ther infience Even defensively otra try ss pro e e ‘mm sour trough armament allanees, and ‘tern threats ar often persed as threat ‘ning by others which exds to counteractions and confit pz thatbecome dificult to r= eS ofan “inadvertent wa between sites that {id ot eck war but that became locked in & ‘coafic hat pred ot of contr! ‘The leading realist theory is balance-of- owe thon which oss the sedan of of erates Sigel dee almost abways wos sucesil to avoid hege- ‘mony either because potential hegemons are ‘etre by thie anicgtion ofa ality coal- tion forming agune them or because they are eft in wa afte tence fal Tn this view the two world war of this century and the European war agunet Napoleonic France a centr before were each “alance-of power ‘wars thar resulted from the formation of & niltary coalition to block a thretening tate from achieving a position of dominance. he ri rinetenth-centry Brit ish leader) applies to contemporary condits swells to the great power polite of eat eatures” So doce te idea that tates facing api ising adversaries may be tempted 0 initiate a preventive wa in order to defeat the adversary while the oppornniy i sill avail= ale which i reflected in Michael Howard's argument (chapter 2) thatthe eases oF wa remain rooted, as mich as they were inthe ‘re-indatil age, in perceptions by sates= ‘men of the growth of hostile power andthe fears forthe estcton, f not the extinction, ofthc on | ‘An important alternative to balance-of- power theory is "power transition theory a form of hegemonic theory that shares east sumptions but that emphasizes the existence ‘of order within nominally anarchic tatem, “Hegemons commonly arise and vse their strength to create a set of poitl and ea. ‘nomic structues and norm of beivioe that enhance the stability ofthe sytem atthe ame time that they advance their own secarly Differetal rates of rows lead to the ise and flo hegemoas, however, and the probity ‘of major war grows asthe hegemon less its ‘dominant postion and aches a manimtum at ‘the point wine the declining leader is over- taken by the ising challenger” Hegemnonic theory has dic mpltons fo the contemporary wos. As Kupchan (chap ‘er3) argues unipolaity under US. leadeship contributes to ability inthe contemporary Jpcxs. Levy ‘wor but with he inevitable deine of US hegemony new isailines wil us, pe cial in East Asa nara ay fear te consequence oft contd ie of Chine power andthe dangers of SinAmericn Conte athe point of poet ennion a roaches which etimated ocr in about thee decades Ts power unsion theory tithe oi nation of equality of power and change i power that rdevtabzng. We cn eparte {heen component which post that at the Aji lve! ware Hel when one ate fa preponderance of power oe another end soil en threo aio poe “Ths isthe"pome peponderane hypothesis” Ikisbused on the loge under condos of preponderance he song ae sted and exon” renin and Intron Pio ‘Neo Chaze Beale Cla-Lyme Rites 180), 9-22 and Benjani Miles, Vaan in Regional Pace: Toe Sei fr Pecan” Cospotion and Conf 20.2200 155-191, 25. Thee prone pce incer both rtemi/ adc and ore eal ae, the democrat peace is domer in aren ‘iol insta ae emi Ts her theses tf warand pace cant be ete with singe lel of wales On the devdpmet of eit tonal ares ee Michal Dol a Nara Poze (New Yoke W. W Norton, 187) For ano aarlee Bros Rane abn Onl, "hentia Denar Irpendons ad nueva Organ (New Ye WW. News son 2000, 26, Istana teria fly api the nation af lec et ning te Con ‘er of Burpee te Congres of Viena (1815) See Robert O. Kestane and Lina Mari "The Pref nana My” ntti ri 2 0 1 Garner 19959 5;and Chats A im Sarit yon (ner 191) 10-16. 27. Thetadepronct- pss pts plo the US ply of ete td Sot. Union inthe 197 US eer seed tinct eonomiinedependoce ee to Unie Sees td the Sait Union wold nese Sv ince ‘hes copete on iil pete ‘copentire ehvin epesaly inthe Tied Word. 2% Ic har ben sid tha in pooper ting spo rete By rowing tho he ine ‘A Lzveis-oF- ANALYSIS APPROACH ew” Geey Hin, Cu fr Se Gerace Fen 96 0 Naea ed Oe roa pte one Far epee oe ‘cad cod leon tote fil Roc, To Rae he Taig st eB 198) Th co of Sone see pie create depen ee ctype th ea mos fic ce tn pay egret Seite nt Wenig oe SE Span omy el a, SS to cr Se hry of esa! iss oh Gen tog a ian Nc a es 90 Ae ove pein li rn hale econ Pt Unt Pe 90, Sere see prey tera STece tate sn th ec tn sheer op ahem Tee art ho Beware Tigi cya Sr alighsioner ont en aos oe commen applications of bo realist and SSUES Seep cae pce pntitelnte yon Seon four yee See ies Bah elk Le Sepia th iy Tengen belo Parkers Sot hy O95 3 Sma Weird none Onc Rosin 30 iat, 5 nl Or arn Pe Free es ype mie scone si ees enenne Afuho Rew Suet tte Ce” fra Ps Ro 001 {Fay 199692 a Nr pan (Safar Mae "Comes ee SoS rec eon te 6 ty Satctna oa IT 5 1 Mon cng aero heip be wand are pee ron often ti nl ne nape pn 2 iotaeo repo fs ofr on wat dwar on ade ae! tobe cept ix = (etna and eed i tar 1B, Samuel P Hanagton, “Why Iterosions Primacy Maes Snort Sety 17,304 (ring 1995) 68-4 1M. A cane ce ofthe mitaraon of com= rec sth ovetersetury Angl- Dac sick Lenya Saat Al, "Foe Comes Conpeiton Seat Ry Wr “The Bron of the Anglo-Dutch Rey, 169 1652" in Te Dy of Endrin Robie oh Pl F. Dic (Ubana/Changign: Univeity of lose Pe 198), 29-6. 138, Pal Keay, Paring fr he Tete entry (New Yoke Rago Hose, 19) at Robe D Kaplan, The Coming Ary (New Yr Rand Hoe, 200). ‘36 Theat ofthe ena hg is asec tate wich Ba sre onder enon heey ch oer dh co “geo berewheter eronmestl change on fiber to imation conte. Eaveonental Change ea thet one aes witha ning ‘ile iotmationa confer Fr dass fx emt change eu fe concepts of = Figae Ricard Ula, "Releting Sei I ‘enna Seay er 1989) 129-153, Tr ie of henna see Daniel Dede, “The Cn it Linking Eaten Der Som and Nasal Sear” Miles 19, 90 3 (wir 1990} and Mare A Len he avin pent Natal Sexy Lue” Itrtinl e ‘iy nn 2 19955352 Se a Nix Peter (Gatch chapter (ptr nt eae, 37, Thomas F. Homer Diao, "Enamel Sac and Ves Confic Briere Son aes” in Tia of rand Pao Michel Bc 1 (Canbe Ma: MIT e,198), 501-56 Teer H. Gl "Watr and Conic: Fr Wate Resse and terion Sey” na Mia R La “Bigg the Drie Teun Rex tourer Diptera th Cate of Wee Bark Wise” in Gat Dangers Ly Joes nd Mies Ca ‘is Mae MFT Pros 1995), 2-17, 118-145 38, Ang the 1979 Sore Wa betwen EL Sadr an Hendin ifn decd simple sey confi deen by einen pees od Bane, sapegoting sd oe ovement es Le repos the sei pone paged ey ‘rnin Wiles HDs Saya Stal Coal dra Engl Org of ‘i Sn (Snd Cal, SeafrdUaesly irae o™, 29. Ista hones doe de ander aly ape ad ‘nes fetal ut ersine oe ae ton fpoverin the en nd ht oe eo sonic wr and paces a ted omer yr einer ae 40. Locurber onthe ni anda chtwrootebreutfoeoelont ‘tl ee ters re demon it ‘erect ret cide tir eng iy dst gn the condot ef wrt hae ge tent 2 ‘ang on became Sr Gan A ‘oman Php 2th sen of Dee Epiing tbe Cabn Mi sec Ne or Ans Ws Longan 179 Bary RP The Sarr [Mitr Darn itn NY Coe she Fem, 1980) sel lant Ke, mein ar ‘ouhond Bis iary Dern bce ‘Prin NJ: Pea Un Pcs 997 4, Manion hese fingesition sara aye traces est song ‘trl ton thos bt har etn ha Acined withthe endl he Cell Wars hc isp of crm pla we nth Sort ‘Wecad te Sve e Marar esi ty ‘raeson the ames eomanic xe of ‘Shc nd po qa So Sentence undeconsyin e tpt domes ere deat one ‘Tinta opening gp Gi cu el mh repro, Sed rece opera pc ut fr ppp cer te tae pe do igh eto Shy spunng orient ney. ‘The reese ce con pel, ad wt iti Lenn norton NY ae cl Ptr 1909) Bead Sed, ‘rand So of ar No Yr Ok sie ron 198) Fess fa Ler oe fimgriin sd ey Ssdadng iv enue conic donrnincn oe ‘etioy Brees Marit Pera of Inpro (London Rg a Koen Pal, 1980, and ayer Av," Tne Sein td Leos Barons Gene W. Cosa Sa Base Bok 195) 359002 “2 ln Ke" ein Te Ph spokane Bik Not Modes [ry 90) 00-76 Tha Poe ne es irargament fy elo Kant Se Tema ‘iy "Thx Rg ropes To at Coe ‘epic sed ntl Rea wm ‘ra Si rt tho Mar 0 91-7 “EJ § an ‘Domenic Poi and We Jeon rd Hay yng tensa “4, Asa guenicthor ration eer tite beheld es sme erant fms Trg ers fbn, dnocate de go wa fen (Gopi pro ec i eh oui jubieadw ape mor pc ces toni onan hen hyd tn pe Deceninae td own adept Serathe wun gh ar oer cand coir war me guy Gan her ae Tee tues sana ue Le Ray Do [5 se ral otf Patan de Donat Po Presta Urey fSoa Cana Pr 195, Ramet 2 Oe, ‘ranging Pras Bese usr de Mesa, Janes D: Mav Ranh MS and a ta Sri “An Tne Eaton of he Denon Pee” Arn it Sra ees 8500 Deseer199) 91-88 Desa tn ‘eon thle eect irolement of {ooo nd nonce of ee cnc wer tow one nr di ing that dees alae more ps han ‘cn as Th bce oe einer oe cece sg tn ‘hp bee demo ran pa See). ume "Denwoncis LWT Oe Regine” Eps fr of oeratind ets yma Deceber 95) 457-49 "6, Citerifor wince in confit \ohog hansen eee ‘ede ca pa en eee of eponton pron ss aan tt ‘hayes wih nate Foie cee ‘A LEvELS-OF-ANALYSIS APPROACH toh inde the American Cl War ante Sjndt Americ Way ang ote See Bea wc, Grin ty Doman Pein, ‘Prnowon Unvesty Pres 193) and Ray, Dees pad fenton! Conc Noe tats Seo ‘Goreme po Sat egies tht es ‘Thence bee suthortranegie ofen ight Cacotber “7, Kenneth A, Scuts,Domestic Opposition se Sgalingin letra Coe” Aion Po ‘Bal Stens Revi 92, no, 4 (Decerber 198) eats “28 Sex th hpter by Edward D. Manel nd Jak Sper in ivolane A ck Sa (i Fo ing tire: Dentin a No ‘ont Cos Se Ys W.W. Noro, 200) "9 Ano) Entei "Deig while Deseo ing Inertial ely 2084 (pi 90: 5-15 Michal D Wada iin 8c, Deron Se Pec” Arian Plil Sie Rowe 01 March 198) 5-61 Ruse ao (One Trangeltng Ps and wad D- Mavs fila ck Sap Dec Tnsons it ol Seng snd Wangs ap. 200). st eyes Fo ring Vine VP Gags JB Nosrainon wi Tteraional Cone The Cue of Sti IntratonaSity 19,0. (ine 19895) 381-67 ‘St Donald Kaan, Thy Poe f aan se Sin Epitome, NY: Comal Usireigy ro 98} Jack S Loyd Li Val," ‘Scapezpting in Anthrain Negi Argrtion inthe aan Mabine Can ie Iteration. ‘tn of Coma Sr Mans L Mardy (tendon: Roy, 1990 318-146, 52, Foe cnr ago, fr ample Je Bodin gun thatthe wey of psering atte ak (Bnranteig aunt eto eben, ad frat ton am ney ait who he ab [Fee can ae cman cae” Cited in Jack S {En The Drenoary Pry of Wan Hond= ‘ke Sadi as | Mid Bos: ‘in Fyn, 199) 259. Jk Spd Neh Empire Dea Pa end Intnl tion (Ry NX: Corel Usivenity Pen, 197) ‘4. Chaps Gel Democrat Dien: Goverment Sere andthe Baer of om Cen Jura ef Cn Renin, 25 so. 2 (hf 197: 255-2 a Row Ne "Rgime “ype Stee Tne, adhe Dien Use cf ce Jao Conf Retion 3.3 (Jae {9995 358-02 5. Brace Bueno de Mets an Randel M Siveron Wr ad the Soil of Pel Lene [A Conpaane Stay of Regine per and Pio Account” Amerie Pid Sua Review ff (December 1995 841-855, Atbough demo ‘ti poled re moe aly than te ‘horn ote terme fm fice alta defeat the pectoral coe of ronal “enous er any ped stboran ede bo ave foetal proteins. 86, A ete potest that ee ore ia spa democracies ext or otc! om 7 Tere peat ofthe ware ha aoc: th See Boon de Mexgua t "Anlst pln ofthe Derwent Pace” Foro ‘eee ht conte hn oe Dan Rater and Alan Stam, Donor Hr (Pxceton NJ: Pence ton Usiversty re, forthcoming 201). St. The enrol bat edo now hat en deecrces ape aint oe Goe= She coning col rey eves ete 58 An etic comunity eae man pope with yh a eno aces ated Frenette nk with hi Cenk eo ela adams ar {pr Donald Horomia, lds Grape i Coir (esky: University of Callin Pret 1995), 55-92 Nana aoe be drat ofthe pe ‘muy loaf rep members tthe eth or ‘ol cnn he esi fr iow ide= eden sae Vin Bers Hpoties o Nation fd Wa and Ted Rober Gr, Ppl oa Stes ‘Miner at Rs int Nr Conary (sheen, ‘AC: Unto State nti of Pesce Pres, 200, Sed th caper by Roy Lick hates in tnvohoe 59, Suma Huntington, "The Cah of Chic eaton Fred 7200-3 (ume 1993 ‘2-4, This intend uot uderetinatsthe imporane ef nalien ned ther ou of ‘on ihn bowl ied lie, Confican and ‘Waren ciation 160, Aathony D. Sith, The Eerie Origin f Nests New Yr Bul hake, 1986. 26 6, Sf nd Cons ahr ah ote veri ole tient reg (62 Inthe cae oe dingo of Yon snd the war in Boi fr empl, Mieco ‘nod ata ec bath ome ontsy Fee dealing ih eral iy theta oppor tunities ann ince own ppl peal VP Gagnon Je, “Eni Naonlen tn lotrations Conti Farin Seriya 194 65. Instn gro may abe ine coo aden os Sabana ‘ental in ico ad employee opporeities cust economic neat fr people gat ‘euch femal te conenpcy a (he calla of autora ges ba remored semeefthebaie to wnent eboney ad ‘spunding sal ommend pra ete ave ced ne pita tr ‘Sona mignon In ation einen dete dion doughty, od, and mins geet pe ‘mune o eval eign ote ee (64. F Shea Lumates ‘Down and Outin Wi saw and Bubp Ease Europe and East West Migaon” Ineratoal ror 16,004 ting 1990; 533. The faning fevionetl it temo Ligh pl sna uy nya serve pica aategy The ain fara sensyincese the pop ht heirs ey put om te poly agenda and that rssch on thse topic might gm nding fo the ovement ‘fmt (6. Myra Wene, "Secu Salty anne atonal Migr Inmate Sey 1,03 (wine 92-995 91-26 (66 Interatona migtion doe nama ad ‘osaci confi: Migr ae fen iad no the hse county, parry when they pie tole brand ean pct when popu ‘Son movements ke he om fgets (tea repent gal changes in deme And econome inentns) rahe than ae Se ‘eameats asin fm et confit o enn ‘nel dite, 67. Wei Sean Sein Iteration Miran Ronald R Kit an ack § Levy, *Demopmpic Chang td the Sources f Tt ‘inal Conti, in Bmp and tia Sar Jack. Levy 4 Myon Wier and Shon Stanon Rl Pre lcs RL: Bergan Book, 2000, (68, Homer Dio, “Eavtonment Sea 157-185; and Dey “Envienmeotl Dea ‘ion and National Secu” 41 (©. OleR Hab, Copnitne Dyn sl ‘ges of he Earn Ie od Rely in Weld ‘tee John Fuel and Aan Sit New York (Cohatia Uaiensty Pre, 187, 16-9; and Al sander L. George, “The Operon Cole. A Ne ese Approach othe Stay of Pia Lewes {nd Desmarais Quarry 02 June 196); 190-222 Veto in elit seiom diene politi ecidion, per ‘only edseton, emutiveepsenes sd the Ison people ler fom sre experince, and 2 host fete vas Se Jeri, Pepto and Miperpton Ristzd Ned Lo Baron Pace dar Bator Jhon op Urey Poe, 1981); and hap 12, by Jie Grow Stn in ‘tise, 70. Dail Kabaemae, Pl Slo nd Amor They ede, un under nitty Haris nt Bin (Cambridge Cais Univesity Pres, 198) Richard Niet and Le os me ger et: SreinandSroming of Sa ude (Englevod Cis NJ: Pentel, 18D, 7, Janes D. Fern, “Ratio Ealaations Sox Ws Inarationl Orisa #3 mer19955 379a14 72. This bul on ack . Ley, "Minerepton tnd the Cus of Wa Theoret Lihage sd Anaya Pres” Mor Puli 36.1 (Oa ter 198) 76-9, See alo Robart Jer,“ Wa 0d Mipereption” oral flea Hy 18 a4 peng 198) 675-70. Bach of ic forma topes cans cont ops angh ‘trough eet ol pas Engen oe ‘aryeapbi foreplay ot 1 in fr preven or pei arth ght Iaveben tempi de semper, 73, On trade-off een he eneriby of pimonione mada the deep acy of "oe contained na =k Sper Tich ea, Rigor, and Release inthe Say of Sve. gn oli rst! Seay 9, 03 rntet 198685 59-106; and Jock 8. Levy “Espaning ‘vent ad Teng Their: History Pl Se 0 nd the Ania neato Reon [A.LEVELS-OF-ANALYSIs APPROACH ai rr an ln ‘Than and tin Fee Eman (Cobre MMT Pe 200, 9-5 On the pain ic fu eg sein on Ga ag tere Sabet Uae Pe 197 ont Reber eis Sang oft kar enon ia NY Eee Cary Pn, 1987. Ss Ho, The Sn, nde Set of ‘avo hap ahi nd ial N Ba 27 sexs Jk. LD Sula SE Aigomens Te Caf Eg, 9S21973¢ ‘tented Oration 903 fame 193) es "Norman Aol The Gra on 4h (New Yc Pt Sons 191 hj Genet Reon Thy sli En ef Gle War Intention Sry ono vine 1294558 No ONE CAN DESCRIBE the topic that Ihave chosen to discus ata neglected and unde. staied one, How rch inkehas been spied About how many Bray shelves hare been filed with works onthe subject snce the days (of Tacs ow many schelats fom howe ‘many specaites have applied thee expertise to this intractable problem! Mathematicians, meteorologists socolgis anthrpelegins, asographess, physic pola cenit hi Tecophers, theologians and lawjee are only the most obvious ofthe categories that come ze mind whe one surveys the ranks of thse ‘who have sought sme formal for perpetual Peace orwho at least hoped to eds the n> plese of international conc to same os Gey seractre, to develop a theory that will ‘able ur explain, to ndertand; and to con ‘wo phenomenon which, fe it abolish it igh wel abolish x, Yer iis not «problem that hae aroused ‘feat deal fiers inthe historical profes Sion. The eases of spec wars, yes: these 2 The Causes of War Michael Howard provide unending matesial for analyse and ‘nection, usualy felled by plenty of doc- ‘uments and early confictng prejudices on the par of the sholas themselves. But che phenomenon of war as» soning activity ‘within human society is te tata profes ‘Son we take ery much for granted The aler- tation of war an peace bas been the ery ull ofthe pase War as ben throughout history ‘normal way of condcting disputes between poiseal group. Few of ur, probably would go along with thovesocio-balogists wo clair ‘hat this ha been so because man s“iantely aggre” The calculations of advantage snd ‘ik, sometimes careful sometioes rade chat sixteen uke before commnting thir coun tes ty war are very emote faa 10 the displays of ial machin that we witnese today in football rod Sige the ee at cof physical force i the mow elementary way of asserting power and contolling one en ronment, the ft that men have frequently had mvc t ce not aus the bistorian » t \ Ed spat deaf suprise. Force othe threat of iomay not ede agunents bat toe a

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