Defining Hypotheses

In the world we
often need to make decisions based on population parameters.
Hypothesis Testing helps us make these decisions.
Does a drug reduce blood pressure?
Does reduced class size increase test scores?
Is a person innocent or guilty of a crime?
Does more money spent on education in low-income areas improve student performance?
Upper One Sided Alternative Hypothesis
Assume that with the current drug 10% of all pancreatic cancer patients
survive for five years. A new drug is being tested. Let p =fraction of
pancreatic patients receiving the new drug who survive for five years.
Then we should test

H0: p <=.10 Ha: p >.10

To determine whether we should accept or reject the null hypothesis we

would give the new drug to a sample of pancreatic cancer patients and
look at phat = fraction of patients receiving new drug who survive 5
years. If phat<=.10 it is clear we should accept the null hypothesis, but
what if phat = .13 or phat = .15?

In this example our alternative hypothesis specifies that the population

parameter is greater than the values specified in the null hypothesis.
Such an alternative hypothesis is called an upper one-sided alternative
hypothesis.
Lower 1 Sided Alternative Hypothesis

The average US family income in 2015 was

$79,263. You are interested in knowing
whether your Congressional District has a
lower average income than the US as a
whole. Define = Average family income in
your Congressional District. Then our
hypotheses are

H0: = $79,263 or >=$79,263 Ha: <$79,263.

Our null hypothesis is that our district is no

worse on income than the rest of the US.

We would now take a simple random sample

of families in our district and calculate the
sample mean xbar.

If xbar = $80,000, it is clear that we should accept

the null hypothesis. However, if xbar = $75,000, or
xbar = $72,000

it is not clear whether we should accept or reject

the null hypothesis.

In this example our alternative hypothesis specifies

that the population parameter is smaller than the
values specified in the null hypothesis. Such an
alternative hypothesis is called a lower one-sided
alternative hypothesis.
Two-Tailed Alternative Hypotheses

Often we want to know if it is reasonable to assume that two populations have equal
variance. When looking at annual investment returns, the standard deviation of annu
percentage returns is referred to as volatility. In this situation our hypotheses are

H0: Annual Variance Stock Returns = Annual Variance on Bond Returns.

Ha: Annual Variance Stock Returns Annual Variance on Bond Returns.

We could now look at, say, the last 10 years of annual returns on stocks and bonds. If
sample variance of the annual percentage returns on stocks and bonds are relatively
close, we would accept H0 while if the sample variance of the annual percentage retu
on stocks and bonds differ greatly, we would reject the null hypothesis.

In this example our alternative hypothesis does not specify a particular direction for t
deviation of variances from equality. Therefore, the alternative hypothesis is called a
two-sided alternative hypothesis.
One-Tailed or Two-Tailed Test

Some statisticians believe you should always use a

Two-tailed test because a priori you have no idea of
the direction in which deviations from the null
hypothesis will occur.

Other statisticians feel that if a deviation from the null

hypothesis in either direction is of interest, then a
two-tailed alternative hypothesis should be used,
while if a deviation from the null hypothesis is of
interest in only one direction, then a one-tailed
alternative hypothesis should be used.
Type I and Type II Error

There are two types of errors that can be made in

hypothesis testing:

Type I Error: Reject H0 given H0 True. We let =

Probability of making a Type I Error. is often called the
level of significance of the test.

Type II Error: Accept H0 given H0 not true. We define

= Probability of making a Type II Error.

In US criminal trials the defendant is innocent until proven

guilty. In this situation if we define H0: Defendant Innocent
and Ha: Defendant Guilty, then a Type I error corresponds
to convicting an innocent defendant, while a Type II error
corresponds to allowing a guilty person to go free. Since a
12-0 vote is needed for conviction, it is clear that the US
judicial system considers a Type I Error to be costlier than a
Type II Error.

Let's return to example 1

H0: p <=.10 Ha: p >.10.

Type I and Type II Error for Example 1

In Example 1 a Type 1 error results when we reject p<=.10

when in reality p<=.10. This corresponds to concluding the
drug is an improvement when the drug is actually not an
improvement.
A Type 2 error results when we accept p<=.10 when
actually p>.10. This corresponds to concluding the drug is
not an improvement when the drug is actually an
improvement.
Null and Alternative Hypotheses

Null Hypothesis is status quo: Defendant Innocent

Alternative Hypothesis competes with null hypothesis.
Alternative Hypothesis: Defendant Guilty
Need lots of proof to reject null hpothesis
Null Hypothesis Needs lots of evidence to overturn it
Examples
Want to determine if Harvard education is superior to Penn State
Average Salary 10 years out of Harvard Grads much higher
This is wrong statistic.
Look at incomes ten years out of students accepted to both schools
Ho: Mean income of PSU Grads = Mean Income of Harvard Grads
Ha: Mean income of PSU Grads Mean income of Harvard Grads
Two Tailed Test
Ho Accepted!!

Esther Duflo MIT Economist has changed the world!

How to get teachers in India to be absent less?
Some days 40% of teachers are absent!
Divide Schools randomly into two groups: Half the schools
teachers are paid extra $1.15 per day attending

Ho: Teacher attendance with $0 incentive=Teacher attendance with $1.15 incentive

Ha: Teacher attendance with $0 incentive-Teacher attendance with $1.15 incentive<0
Lower 1 sided Alternative
Could be set up as
Ha: Teacher attendance with $1.15 incentive-Teacher attendance with $0 incentive>0
Upper 1 sided alternative

I swim 100 yards on my "speed test" in average of 88 seconds

Does drinking coffee before practice make me swim faster?
Ho: Mean time with coffee = 88 seconds
Ha: Mean time with coffee<88 seconds
Left tailed test

Ask cola drinkers if they prefer Coke to Pepsi

You work for Coca Cola and want to say in ad you won the taste test.
p = fraction of people who prefer Coke to Pepsi
Ho: p = 0.5 or p<=0.5
Ha: p >0.5
A bottling company needs to produce
bottles that will hold 12 ounces of liquid
for a local beer maker. Periodically, the
company gets complaints that their
bottles are not holding enough liquid.
What hypotheses would you test to help
the beer company?
Ho: Mean ounces in can<=12 oz
Ha: Mean ounces in can >12 oz.
Critical Region
The critical region is the range of
values for a sample statistic that
results in rejection of H0

Our approach to hypothesis testing

will be to set a small probability
(usually 0.05) of making a Type I
Error and then choose a critical
region that minimizes the
probability of making a Type II
Error.

In Example 1 critical region will

phat>=something

In Example 2 criticial region is

xbar<=something
H0: p <=.01 Ha: p >.01.

H0: = $79,263 or >=$79,263 Ha:

<$79,263.
One Sample Z-Test
Test hypothesis about
; Variance population known
Use when n>=30
because xbar will be normal by CLT.
Use s for if is unkown z.025= -1.96 z.05= -

Critical Region for One Sample Z test

Passing the HISTEP test is required for

graduation in the state of Fredonia. The
average state score on the test is 75. A
random sample of 49 students at Cooley
High has xbar = 79

and s = 15. For = 0.05 would you conclude

that Cooley High Students perform
differently than the typical state student?

= Cooley High mean score

Cooley High
There is no reason to believe that Cooley High is better or worse than the state
H0: =75 Ha: 75.
Then we reject H0 if |79-75|>=1.96*15/sqrt(49)
= 4.2. xbar=79 n = 49 s = 15
Since this is false we accept the null hypothesis and conclude that the average C

If we have reason to think Cooley High is better use a one-tailed test

H0: = 75 Ha: >75.

We will reject the null hypothesis if
79>=75 + (1.645*15)/sqrt(49)
=78.525.

So we reject for one-tailed test and accept with two-tailed test.

For same it takes more proof to reject null for a two-tailed test.
 z.025= -1.96 z.05= -1.645

orse than the state so we will use a two-tailed test with

9 n = 49 s = 15 0 = 75
e that the average Cooley High score does not differ from the State average.

-tailed test.
The level of significance chosen is rather arbitrary. For that reason, most statisticians use the concep
Probability values (P-values) to report the outcome of a hypothesis test. The P-value for a hypothes
is the smallest value of for which the data indicates rejection of H0. Thus

P Value<= if and only if we reject H0.

P-Value> if and only if we accept H0.

The P-value may also be interpreted as the probability of observing (given H0 is true) a value of the
statistic at least as extreme as the observed value of the test statistic.

Let XBAR be the random variable for the sample mean under H0. The level of significan
chosen is rather arbitrary. For that reason, most statisticians use the concept of Probab
values (P-values) to report the outcome of a hypothesis test. The P-value for a hypothes
test is the smallest value of for which the data indicates rejection of H 0Thus
P Value<= if and only if we reject H0.
P-Value> if and only if we accept H0.
The P-value may also be interpreted as the probability of observing (given H0 is true) a
value of the test statistic at least as extreme as the observed value of the test statistic.

If we let XBAR represent the random variable for the sample mean under H 0 and x be the observed
of , then the P-Value for the one sample Z-test is computed as follows:
All probabilities are computed under the assumption that H0 is true.
H0: =75 Ha: 75.
In our Cooley High example, the P-Value for the two-tailed test is
Prob(|XBAR-75|>=4
= 2*Prob(XBAR>=79)
which can be computed as
2*(1-NORM.DIST(79,75,15/sqrt(49),True)
REMEMBER FROM MODULE 4 ST DEV XBAR = SIGMA/SQRT(n)
= 2*(0.030974) = 0.061948.
Since our P-Value of 0.06>.05, for a two-tailed test we accept H0.
The P-value for a one-tailed test is simply Prob(Xbar>=79) =0.030974
Since our P-value of 0.03<.05 we reject H0.
H0: = 75 Ha: >75.
Definition of T Random Variable

If population is normal with mean

and standard deviation is unknown then

xbar-
------------
s/sqrt(n)
follows a T random variable with n-1 degrees of freedom.
s= sample standard deviation
n = sample size
AS DEGREES OF FREEDOM INCREASE THE T RANDOM VARIABLE
APPROACHES THE STANDARD NORMAL

2 4 10
Normal T 5 df T 15 df T 30 df
-3.5 0.000873 0.01859 0.011273 0.004784
-3.4 0.001232 0.020027 0.012565 0.005689
-3.3 0.001723 0.021608 0.014026 0.006767
-3.2 0.002384 0.023352 0.015682 0.008052
-3.1 0.003267 0.025279 0.01756 0.009582
-3 0.004432 0.02741 0.019693 0.011401
-2.9 0.005953 0.029773 0.022118 0.01356
-2.8 0.007915 0.032397 0.024877 0.016121
-2.7 0.010421 0.035316 0.028019 0.019151
-2.6 0.013583 0.038569 0.031597 0.022728
-2.5 0.017528 0.042201 0.035676 0.026939
-2.4 0.022395 0.04626 0.040323 0.031879
-2.3 0.028327 0.050805 0.045619 0.037656
-2.2 0.035475 0.055901 0.051648 0.04438
-2.1 0.043984 0.061619 0.058505 0.05217
-2 0.053991 0.068041 0.066291 0.061146 -4 -3 -2
-1.9 0.065616 0.075259 0.075114 0.071425 Norm
-1.8 0.07895 0.083369 0.085081 0.083116
-1.7 0.094049 0.092478 0.096302 0.096312
-1.6 0.110921 0.102696 0.108873 0.111078
-1.5 0.129518 0.114134 0.12288 0.127445
-1.4 0.149727 0.126899 0.138378 0.145395
-1.3 0.171369 0.141078 0.155382 0.164851
-1.2 0.194186 0.156734 0.173854 0.185664
-1.1 0.217852 0.173877 0.193681 0.207606
-1 0.241971 0.19245 0.214663 0.230362
-0.9 0.266085 0.212295 0.236493 0.25353
-0.8 0.289692 0.233128 0.258754 0.276625
-0.7 0.312254 0.254508 0.280909 0.299092
-0.6 0.333225 0.275824 0.302319 0.320326
-0.5 0.352065 0.296296 0.322262 0.339695
-0.4 0.36827 0.315006 0.339976 0.356579
-0.3 0.381388 0.330964 0.35471 0.370398
-0.2 0.391043 0.343206 0.365787 0.380658
-0.1 0.396953 0.350918 0.372666 0.386975
0 0.398942 0.353553 0.375 0.389108
0.1 0.396953 0.350918 0.372666 0.386975
0.2 0.391043 0.343206 0.365787 0.380658
0.3 0.381388 0.330964 0.35471 0.370398
0.4 0.36827 0.315006 0.339976 0.356579
0.5 0.352065 0.296296 0.322262 0.339695
0.6 0.333225 0.275824 0.302319 0.320326
0.7 0.312254 0.254508 0.280909 0.299092
0.8 0.289692 0.233128 0.258754 0.276625
0.9 0.266085 0.212295 0.236493 0.25353
1 0.241971 0.19245 0.214663 0.230362
1.1 0.217852 0.173877 0.193681 0.207606
1.2 0.194186 0.156734 0.173854 0.185664
1.3 0.171369 0.141078 0.155382 0.164851
1.4 0.149727 0.126899 0.138378 0.145395
1.5 0.129518 0.114134 0.12288 0.127445
1.6 0.110921 0.102696 0.108873 0.111078
1.7 0.094049 0.092478 0.096302 0.096312
1.8 0.07895 0.083369 0.085081 0.083116
1.9 0.065616 0.075259 0.075114 0.071425
2 0.053991 0.068041 0.066291 0.061146
2.1 0.043984 0.061619 0.058505 0.05217
2.2 0.035475 0.055901 0.051648 0.04438
2.3 0.028327 0.050805 0.045619 0.037656
2.4 0.022395 0.04626 0.040323 0.031879
2.5 0.017528 0.042201 0.035676 0.026939
2.6 0.013583 0.038569 0.031597 0.022728
2.7 0.010421 0.035316 0.028019 0.019151
2.8 0.007915 0.032397 0.024877 0.016121
2.9 0.005953 0.029773 0.022118 0.01356
3 0.004432 0.02741 0.019693 0.011401
3.1 0.003267 0.025279 0.01756 0.009582
3.2 0.002384 0.023352 0.015682 0.008052
3.3 0.001723 0.021608 0.014026 0.006767
3.4 0.001232 0.020027 0.012565 0.005689
3.5 0.000873 0.01859 0.011273 0.004784
M VARIABLE

T and Normal Densities

0.45

0.4

0.35

0.3

0.25
0.2

0.15

0.1

0.05

0
-4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4
Norma l T 5 df T 15 df T 30 df
 A B C D E F G H I J
1 One Sample Hypothesis for Mean: Small Sample, Normal Population, Variance Unknown
2
3
4 Use T.INV to get percentiles of T Random Variable
5
6 2.5 %ile 28 df -2.0484 =T.INV(0.025,28)
7 97.5%ile 28 df 2.0484 =T.INV(0.975,28)
8 0.5% ile 13 df -3.0123 =T.INV(0.005,13)
9 99.5%ile 13 df 3.0123 =T.INV(0.995,13)
10
11 Use T.DIST to get T probabilities
12 Prob T10>=2 0.0367 =1-T.DIST(2,10,1)
13 Prob T10<=-2 0.0367 =T.DIST(-2,10,1)
14
15 Basically, One Sample t-tests look just like One Sample Z-tests with s replacing and the t percentiles replacing the Z percentiles.
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24 P-Values for T-Test
25 t= observed value of T-statistic
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37 Example
38

Passing the HISTEP test is required for graduation in the state of Fredonia. The
39 average state score on the test is 75. A random sample of 25 students at Cooley
High finds xbar=81

40
and s = 15. For = 0.05 would you conclude that Cooley High Students perform
differently than the typical state student?

41

We use a two-tailed test because before doing the test we have no view about
42 whether Cooley High students will perform better or worse than the typical state
student. Then we have

43 H0: = 75 Ha: 75

44

45 Using the function T.INV(0.025,24) We find t(..025,24) = -2.06.

46 We reject H0 if
47 |81-75|>=2.06*15/sqrt(25)
48 = 6.18.

49 This is not true, so we accept H0.

50

51 The p-value for this test is 2*Prob(T24>= (81-75)/(15/sqrt(25))

52 =2*Prob(T24>=2)

Prob(T24>=2) may be computed with the formula = 1-T.DIST(2,24,TRUE) which

53 returns 0.028. Therefore, the p-value for this test is 2*0.028= 0.056. Since the P-
Value is >0.05, we accept H0.
Testing a Proportion Player makes 300 of 400 Free Thro
Right Tailed Test Has she improved from being a 70
trials 400 Ho: p<=p0 p= chance player makess free thro
successes 300 Ha: p>p0 H0: p<=0.70 Ha: P>0.70
Pzero 0.7
Righttailedpvalue 0.01553 =_xlfn.binom.dist.range(trials,Pze

Left Tailed Test

Ho: p>=p0
Ha: p<p0

Lefttailedpvalue 0.98838 =_xlfn.binom.dist.range(trials,Pze

Two Tailed Test
Ho: p=p0
Ha: pp0

Twotailedpvalue 0.03106 =2*MIN(Lefttailedpvalue,Righttail

Reject H0 if pvalue<=
 s 300 of 400 Free Throws?
roved from being a 70% foul shooter?
layer makess free throws after change = 0.05
Ha: P>0.70 P-VALUE=.016<=.05
Reject Null Hypothesis
m.dist.range(trials,Pzero,successes,trials)

m.dist.range(trials,Pzero,0,successes)

fttailedpvalue,Righttailedpvalue)
Testing a Proportion
Right Tailed Test
trials 400 Ho: p<=p0
successes 217 Ha: p>p0
Pzero 0.5
Righttailedpvalue 0.04941 =_xlfn.binom.dist.range(trials,Pze
p=chance coin comes up heads
Ho: p = 0.5 Left Tailed Test
Ha:p0.5 Ho: p>=p0
Ha: p<p0
p-value 0.098
For alpha = .05 Lefttailedpvalue 0.96001 =_xlfn.binom.dist.range(trials,Pze
Accept the coin is fair Two Tailed Test
Ho: p=p0
217 of 400 coin tosses Ha: pp0
come up heads
Twotailedpvalue 0.09882 =2*MIN(Lefttailedpvalue,Righttail

Reject H0 if pvalue<=
inom.dist.range(trials,Pzero,successes,trials)

inom.dist.range(trials,Pzero,0,successes)

(Lefttailedpvalue,Righttailedpvalue)
Testing a Proportion
Right Tailed Test
trials 300 Ho: p<=p0
successes 89 Ha: p>p0
Pzero 0.3
Righttailedpvalue 0.57174 =_xlfn.binom.dist.range(trials,Pze

Left Tailed Test

p = fraction of late flights Ho: p>=p0
after changing boarding process Ha: p<p0
Ho: p >=.30
Ha:p<.30 Lefttailedpvalue 0.47823 =_xlfn.binom.dist.range(trials,Pze
Alpha = .01 Two Tailed Test
Reject H0 Ho: p=p0
p value<.01 Ha: pp0

50 of 300 flights are late Twotailedpvalue 0.95646 =2*MIN(Lefttailedpvalue,Righttail

Reject H0 if pvalue<=
inom.dist.range(trials,Pzero,successes,trials)

inom.dist.range(trials,Pzero,0,successes)

(Lefttailedpvalue,Righttailedpvalue)
Means 98.6475771 109.1896
How Many 227 211
variance 131.662859 144.021
Marketing Finance
118 105
110 90
106 101
94 130
91 124
102 104
96 129
116 110
106 110
117 126
90 116
113 97
112 123
109 124
106 115
114 100
92 130
99 93
105 97
81 93
82 110
104 124
114 100
119 108
98 101
90 115
89 123
111 95
 83 99
98 126
111 100
114 110
117 119
97 109
90 117
100 126
86 94
108 113
89 96
102 111
82 103
120 99
114 112
111 90
93 117
99 110
83 102
107 126
91 95
104 124
88 110
89 109
109 115
80 126
84 118
106 119
82 95
101 102
114 122
93 122
 89 94
95 119
82 100
107 97
90 109
109 122
105 122
113 93
89 113
82 118
94 92
94 90
88 127
94 123
103 114
109 92
90 110
104 115
95 90
93 116
95 94
117 94
96 106
112 97
94 124
107 110
115 111
118 127
81 93
88 93
119 118
99 120
 89 128
112 119
102 127
117 120
80 113
120 116
118 118
89 121
93 102
93 102
113 128
93 100
110 91
94 93
115 116
111 128
107 90
87 125
87 130
103 108
81 121
80 125
112 99
113 118
93 122
113 96
94 116
87 98
91 122
102 114
86 108
94 96
 94 115
104 91
106 116
89 93
93 130
85 115
93 93
94 104
96 115
95 106
107 102
114 98
115 122
107 92
84 101
84 100
111 103
96 124
86 110
111 107
82 98
94 116
80 90
88 103
95 94
103 121
102 104
86 92
102 123
119 94
112 118
88 119
 80 102
103 115
118 99
100 102
120 123
109 116
89 97
90 126
85 101
90 125
106 116
107 99
80 108
97 102
94 107
85 97
112 124
82 108
89 102
99 92
106 92
108 118
93 94
107 99
100 95
87 91
100 110
116 116
83 94
89 107
100 108
100 124
 93 119
86 95
100 114
103 116
93 97
111 90
86 128
105 105
81 97
114 113
105 127
119 99
96 129
98 102
103 105
111 124
90 129
116 124
95 113
84 101
82 101
108 116
80 95
86
111
101
84
87
92
84
105
96
 89
103
88
120
95
80
100
H0: Mean Marketing=Mean Finance
Ha: Mean Marketing Mean Finance

P-Value =0 so reject null hypothesis

and conclude significant difference
between Average salary of marketing and finance majors
e majors
 A B C D E F G H I J K
1
2 variance 131.6628591478 144.021
3
4 Marketing Finance
5 118 105
6 110 90
7 106 101 z-Test: Two Sample for Means
8 94 130
9 91 124 Marketing Finance
10 102 104 Mean 98.64758 109.1896
11 96 129 Known Variance 131.66 144.02
12 116 110 Observations 227 211
13 106 110 Hypothesized Mean Differe 0
14 117 126 z -9.382034
15 90 116 P(Z<=z) one-tail 0
16 113 97 z Critical one-tail 1.644854
17 112 123 P(Z<=z) two-tail 0
18 109 124 z Critical two-tail 1.959964
19 106 115
20 114 100 H0: Mean Marketing=Mean Finance
21 92 130 Ha: Mean Marketing Mean Finance
22 99 93
23 105 97 P-Value =0 so reject null hypothesis
24 81 93 and conclude significant difference
25 82 110 between Average salary of marketing and finance majors
26 104 124
27 114 100
28 119 108
29 98 101
30 90 115
31 89 123
32 111 95
33 83 99
34 98 126
35 111 100
36 114 110
37 117 119
38 97 109
39 90 117
40 100 126
41 86 94
42 108 113
43 89 96
44 102 111
45 82 103
46 120 99
47 114 112
48 111 90
49 93 117
50 99 110
51 83 102
52 107 126
53 91 95
54 104 124
55 88 110
56 89 109
57 109 115
58 80 126
59 84 118
60 106 119
61 82 95
62 101 102
63 114 122
64 93 122
65 89 94
66 95 119
67 82 100
68 107 97
69 90 109
70 109 122
71 105 122
72 113 93
73 89 113
74 82 118
75 94 92
76 94 90
77 88 127
78 94 123
79 103 114
80 109 92
81 90 110
82 104 115
83 95 90
84 93 116
85 95 94
86 117 94
87 96 106
88 112 97
89 94 124
90 107 110
91 115 111
92 118 127
93 81 93
94 88 93
95 119 118
96 99 120
97 89 128
98 112 119
99 102 127
100 117 120
101 80 113
102 120 116
103 118 118
104 89 121
105 93 102
106 93 102
107 113 128
108 93 100
109 110 91
110 94 93
111 115 116
112 111 128
113 107 90
114 87 125
115 87 130
116 103 108
117 81 121
118 80 125
119 112 99
120 113 118
121 93 122
122 113 96
123 94 116
124 87 98
125 91 122
126 102 114
127 86 108
128 94 96
129 94 115
130 104 91
131 106 116
132 89 93
133 93 130
134 85 115
135 93 93
136 94 104
137 96 115
138 95 106
139 107 102
140 114 98
141 115 122
142 107 92
143 84 101
144 84 100
145 111 103
146 96 124
147 86 110
148 111 107
149 82 98
150 94 116
151 80 90
152 88 103
153 95 94
154 103 121
155 102 104
156 86 92
157 102 123
158 119 94
159 112 118
160 88 119
161 80 102
162 103 115
163 118 99
164 100 102
165 120 123
166 109 116
167 89 97
168 90 126
169 85 101
170 90 125
171 106 116
172 107 99
173 80 108
174 97 102
175 94 107
176 85 97
177 112 124
178 82 108
179 89 102
180 99 92
181 106 92
182 108 118
183 93 94
184 107 99
185 100 95
186 87 91
187 100 110
188 116 116
189 83 94
190 89 107
191 100 108
192 100 124
193 93 119
194 86 95
195 100 114
196 103 116
197 93 97
198 111 90
199 86 128
200 105 105
201 81 97
202 114 113
203 105 127
204 119 99
205 96 129
206 98 102
207 103 105
208 111 124
209 90 129
210 116 124
211 95 113
212 84 101
213 82 101
214 108 116
215 80 95
216 86
217 111
218 101
219 84
220 87
221 92
222 84
223 105
224 96
225 89
226 103
227 88
228 120
229 95
230 80
231 100
SAMPLE VAR 33.91758242 18.0163399
Skewness -0.50544 0.4235
Kurtosis 0.10377 -0.3493
Hybrid In Person
87 88
94 96
86 84
89 82
74 81
84 85
85 90
85 90
92 89
90 95
77 88
82 89
94 93
84 85
87
83
88
84
 TESTING HYPOTHESIS OF EQUAL VARIANCES
NORMAL POPULATION

H0: Variance Hybrid scores = Variance In-class scores

Ha: Variance Hybrid Scores Variance In-class scores
accept null hypothesis that population variances are equal
USE F.TEST FUNCTION TO GET P-VALUE
IF PVALUE<=ALPHA
Reject Null
 A B C D E F G H I J K L M
1
2
3
4 Hybrid In Person
5 87 88
6 94 96
7 86 84
8 89 82 0.2208249 =F.TEST(F5:F18,G5:G22)
9 74 81
10 84 85
11 85 90
12 85 90
13 92 89
14 90 95
15 77 88
16 82 89
17 94 93
18 84 85
19 87
20 83
21 88
22 84
4 Tests to Test Differences Between
Population Means

Situation

Large sample size (n>=30) from each

population and samples from the
two populations are independent

Small Sample size (n<30) for at least

one population, populations normal,
variances unknown but equal, and
the samples from the two
populations are independent

Small Sample size (n<30) from at

least one population, populations
normal, variances unknown but
unequal, and the samples from the
two populations are independent

The two populations are normal and

the observations from the two
populations can be paired in a
natural fashion
Name of Test

z-test Two Samples for Means

t-Test Two sample Assuming Equal Variances

t-Test Two sample Assuming Unequal Variances

t-Test Paired Two Sample for Means

kurt 0.103766 -0.349327
skew -0.505441 0.423499
14 18
averages 85.92857 87.61111
Hybrid In Person
87 88
94 96
86 84
89 82
74 81
84 85
85 90
85 90
92 89
90 95
77 88
82 89
94 93
84 85
87
83
88
84
ACCEPT H0 THAT VARIANCES EQUAL
SKEWNESS AND KURTOSIS CONSISTENT WITH NORMAL
Accept H0 that Mean score in hybrid and in person classes are same
sses are same
 A B C D E F G
1 TESTING IF VARIANCES OF TWO POPULATIONS ARE EQUAL
2 Skewness -0.505441 0.1447933
3 Kurtosis 0.1037655 -0.61404
4 Hybrid In Person
5 87 88
6 94 96
7 P-Value for Equal Variances 86 84
8 0.2208249029 89 82
9 74 81
10 84 85
11 85 90
12 85 90
13 92 89
14 Variances Equal 90 95
15 77 88
16 Test H0: MeanHybrid=Mean In Person 82 89
17 Test Ha: MeanHybridMean In Person 94 93
18 84 85
19 Test H0: VarianceHybrid=Variance In Person 87
20 Test Ha: VarianceHybridVariance In Person 83
21 Accept H0 88
22 84
23 Now test mean difference using equal variance t test
24 t-Test: Two-Sample Assuming Equal Variances
25 Accept H0
26 for =0.05 Hybrid In Person
27 P-Value Mean 85.928571 87.611111
28 .175 for one tailed test Variance 33.917582 18.01634
29 and .35 for two tailed test Observations 14 18
30 Pooled Variance 24.906878
31 Hypothesized Mean 0
32 df 30
33 t Stat -0.946087
34 P(T<=t) one-tail 0.1758314
35 t Critical one-tail 1.6972609
36 P(T<=t) two-tail 0.3516628
37 t Critical two-tail 2.0422725
kurt -0.2104423456 0.0594097
skew -0.5968024617 0.6037579
2.1372110448 9.5868459
Placebo Drug
2.9071280985 10.419072
4.4001502519 7.9934903
5.4929335376 8.6193498
4.5590603401 9.1524677
7.5501029713 8.5992424
-2.7716354574 8.9227063
-3.8538278346 9.3823858
1.0758036672 9.2596881
3.0537916 9.446886
3.2564067994 10.71418
2.9967932226 11.127241
-2.9856399695 9.4767015
1.3968654266 9.6804589
2.8430219739 8.1382608
10.378498
8.9549384
11.991193
10.306467
H0:Mean reduction for placebo and drug equal
Ha: Mean reduction for drug and placebo not equal
SAMPLE VARIANCES
Placebo Drug
11.0289756028 1.11934

REJECT H0 THAT VARIANCES ARE EQUAL

P-value<=.05
Reject H0
 A B C D E F G
1 TESTING IF VARIANCES OF TWO POPULATIONS ARE EQUAL
2 SKEW -0.596802 0.4843505
3 KURT -0.210442 -0.225282
4 Placebo Drug
5 2.9071281 10.419072
6 4.4001503 7.9934903
7 5.4929335 8.6193498
8 4.5590603 9.1524677
9 P-Value for Equal Variances 7.550103 8.5992424
10 3.36353965325768E-05 -2.771635 8.9227063
11 -3.853828 9.3823858
12 1.0758037 9.2596881
13 3.0537916 9.446886
14 Variances Not Equal 3.2564068 10.71418
15 2.9967932 11.127241
16 Test H0: MeanPlacebo=Mean Drug -2.98564 9.4767015
17 Test Ha: MeanPlacebo<MeanDrug 1.3968654 9.6804589
18 2.843022 8.1382608
19 Test H0: VariancePlacebo=VarianceDrug 10.378498
20 Test Ha: VariancePlaceboVarianceDrug 8.9549384
21 Reject H0 11.991193
22 10.306467
23 Now test mean difference using Unequal variance t test
24
25
26 t-Test: Two-Sample Assuming Unequal Variances
27
28 Placebo Drug
29 Mean 2.137211 9.5868459
30 Variance 11.028976 1.1193373
31 Observations 14 18
32 Hypothesized Mea 0
33 df 15
34 t Stat -8.080409
35 P-value one tailed P(T<=t) one-tail 3.806E-07
36 is 4 in 10 million so reject null t Critical one-tail 1.7530504
37 hypothesis and conclude P(T<=t) two-tail 7.611E-07
38 drug is significantly t Critical two-tail 2.1314495
39 at reducing cholesterol
40 than placebo.
T TEST PAIRED TWO SAMPLE

Goal

To test if a drug reduces cholesterol

To test if a new type of insulation

reduces heating bills

To test if cross training (not just

swimming) improves a swimmers
time

In each of these situations we are blocking the effect of a variable on th

Blocking Variable
Physical characteristics of patients
Size and design of home

Swimmers ability
 Design

Pick ten pairs of two people who are matched

on age, weight and cholesterol. Then we flip a
coin to randomly choose one member of each
pair to receive the drug and one member to
receive the placebo.

Pick ten pairs of two houses that had the same

heating bill last winter. Flip a coin to choose the
member of each pair that gets the new type of
insulation. The other member of the pair keeps
their old insulation

Pick 15 pairs of two swimmers who had

identical best times in their event. For each pair
Flip a coin to choose the swimmer in each pair
who starts cross training
are blocking the effect of a variable on the response and focusing on the differences due to the
Treatment Variable
Difference between drug and placebo.
Difference between new and old insulation.
Difference between cross training and just in
water training
he differences due to the treatment variable.
 Means -2.9
Observation Old Insulation
1 -34
2 6
3 31
4 10
5 -2
6 -12
7 49
8 -15
9 -45
10 -17

P-VALUE =0.53
Accept H0
 -14.3 H0: mean change in heating bill old insulation=mean change w
New Insulation Ha: mean change in heating bill old insulationmean change w
23
16
-28
29
30
-72
-46
-55
21
-61
on=mean change with new insulation
onmean change with new insulation
 A B C D E F G H I
1
2
3 skewness 0.4342180803 -0.1972147109
4 kurtosis -0.0575170242 -2.1072878446
5 Observation Old Insulation New Insulation
6 1 -34 23
7 2 6 16
8 3 31 -28
9 4 10 29
10 5 -2 30
11 6 -12 -72
12 7 49 -46
13 8 -15 -55
14 9 -45 21
15 10 -17 -61
16
17
18 t-Test: Paired Two Sample for Means
19
20 Old Insulation New Insulation
21 Mean -2.9 -14.3
22 Variance 806.3222222222 1750.233333333
23 Observations 10 10
24 Pearson Correlation -0.2068623331
25 Hypothesized Mean D 0
26 df 9
27 t Stat 0.6529714662
28 P(T<=t) one-tail 0.2650496761
29 t Critical one-tail 1.8331129327
30 P(T<=t) two-tail 0.5300993523
31 t Critical two-tail 2.2621571628
 A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P
1

2 CHI SQUARE TEST FOR INDEPENDENCE

3 ARE EYE COLOR AND GENDER INDEPENDENT?
4

5 Eye Color
6 Gender Blue Brown Green Hazel Total
7 H0:EYE COLOR AND GENDER ARE INDEPENDENT Female 370 352 198 187 1107
8 HA: EYE COLOR AND GENDER ARE NOT INDEPENDENT Male 359 290 110 169 928
9 Total 729 642 308 356
10 Chance of eye color
11 by Gender Eye Color
12 Gender Blue Brown Green Hazel Total
13 Female 33.42% 31.80% 17.89% 16.89% 100.00%
14 Male 38.69% 31.25% 11.85% 18.21% 100.00%
15 df Cutoff Under Independence Total
16 1 3.8415 =CHISQ.INV(0.95,D16) Expected Values
17 2 5.9915 =CHISQ.INV(0.95,D17) Total 2035 Eye Color
18 3 7.8147 =CHISQ.INV(0.95,D18) Gender Blue Brown Green Hazel Total
19 4 9.4877 =CHISQ.INV(0.95,D19) Female 396.56 349.24 167.55 193.66 1107.00
20 R=2 C= 4 '($P7/Total)*(L$9/Total)*Total Male 332.44 292.76 140.45 162.34 928.00
21 3 DF (R-1)*(C-1) Degrees of Freedom Total
22 Test Statistic
23 (Oij-Eij)2 Eye Color
24 ------------- Gender Blue Brown Green Hazel
25 Eij Female 1.78 0.02 5.54 0.23
26 Male 2.12 0.03 6.60 0.27
27 Get P-VALUE with Chi Square Total
28 CHISQ.DIST.RT 16.59 Reject H0 eye color and gender are not independent!
29 0.0008581 =CHISQ.DIST.RT(H28,3)
30

31 CAN DIRECTLY GET P-VALUE WITH

32 CHISQ.TEST 0.000858 =CHISQ.TEST(L7:O8,L19:O20)
33 FUNCTION
 A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P
1
2
3
4
5 Eye Color
6 Gender Blue Brown Green Hazel Total
7 Female 370 352 198 187 1107
8 Male 359 290 110 169 928
9 Total 729 642 308 356
10 Chance of eye color
11 by Gender Eye Color
12 Gender Blue Brown Green Hazel Total
13 Female 33.42% 31.80% 17.89% 16.89% 100.00%
14 Male 38.69% 31.25% 11.85% 18.21% 100.00%
15 df Cutoff Total 35.82% 31.55% 15.14% 17.49% 100.00%
16 1 3.8414588 =CHISQ.INV(0.95,D16)Expected Values
17 2 5.9914645 =CHISQ.INV(0.95,D17)Total 2035 Eye Color
18 3 7.8147279 =CHISQ.INV(0.95,D18)($P7/Total)*(L$9/Total)*Total Gender Blue Brown Green Hazel Total
19 4 9.487729 =CHISQ.INV(0.95,D19) Female 396.56 349.24 167.55 193.66 1107.00
20 Male 332.44 292.76 140.45 162.34 928.00
21 Total 729.00 642.00 308.00 356.00
22 Test Statistic
23 Eye Color
24 (4-1)*(2-1) =3 Degrees of Freedom Gender Blue Brown Green Hazel
25 Female 1.78 0.02 5.54 0.23
26 Male 2.12 0.03 6.60 0.27
27 Chi Square Total
28 16.59
29 Note
30 =CHISQ.INV(1-H30,3) 16.589883 0.0008581 0.0008581 =CHISQ.DIST.RT(H28,3)
31
32
33
34 0.0008581 0.0008581 =CHISQ.TEST(L7:O8,L19:O20)