India Equity Institutional Research | FMCG-Dairy RESULT UPDATE

Heritage Foods Ltd. INR 984

Stellar Quarter BUY

Target Price (INR): 1205
Hatsun Agro Ltd reported Q3FY17 revenue at INR 6670.6 Mn with growth of 14.5%
yoy and 4.0% qoq, while EBIDTA & PAT remained above our estimates at INR Potential upside : 22.4%
387.6 Mn and 199.48 Mn respectively. EBIDTA margins stood at 5.8% which was
Previous TP (INR): 1042
an improvement of 67 bps yoy and qoq. PAT margins stood at 3.0% with increase
of 104bps yoy and 55bps qoq. Market Data
Shares outs (Mn) 23
YoY Revenue growth in double digit: Revenue for Q3FY17 was much better than
expected and stood at around INR 6670.6 Mn with growth of 14.5% and 4.0% qoq. For EquityCap (INR Mn) 232
9MFY17, revenue was around INR 19426.1 Mn with the growth of 11.1% yoy. Currently total Mkt Cap (INR Mn) 20063.4
milk procure is around 10.54 lakh litre with milk sales of around 8.63 llpd. It has around tie 52 Wk H/L (INR) 956/446
up with more than 3 lakh farmers and procure milk from 8 states like Andhra Pradesh,
Delhi, Haryana, Karnataka, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Telangana & Tamil Nadu Volume Avg (3m K) 50.79
Face Value (INR) 10
Strong Margins in Q3FY17: Heritage foods ltd posted EBIDTA margins of around 5.8% Bloomberg Code HTFL IN
which was an improvement of 67bps yoy and qoq. EBIDTA improved and remained at INR
387.6 Mn which is the growth of 29.4% yoy and 17.6% qoq. Improvement in Margins were
Market Info:
due to cost of raw material decrease yoy by 6% and increase by 4% qoq, while there was
SENSEX 27708
increase in stock by 38.4 Mn as compared to decrease of stock of INR 208.4 Mn. PAT
expanded to INR 199.5 Mn with growth of 56.6% yoy and 27% qoq. Pat margins remain at NIFTY 8603
3.0% highest in Q3FY17 as compared to 2.4% in Q2FY17 and 2.2% in Q3FY16. As on 23rd January, 2017

Price Performance
Segmental performance: Heritage foods Ltd divides among 6 segments like Dairy, Retail,
Agri, Bakery, Renewable and Vet CA. Among all Dairy and retail segment contributes around
95.4% to the total revenue. Dairy revenue earned is INR 4596 Mn with growth of 6.8% yoy
and de-growth of 0.5% qoq. It earned the EBIT of INR 310.6 Mn with growth of 21.1% yoy
and 1.9% qoq. Retail contributes to 29.4% with revenue of INR 2046.4 Mn and growth of
41.7% yoy and 17.2% qoq. Retail division shows de-growth at EBIT levels of around
11.4Mn. Agri, Bakery, Renewable and Vet CA contribute 1.7%, 0.5%, 0.2% and 2.2% which
is total of 4.6% of total revenue. Its revenue stands at INR 121.1 Mn, 34.2 M, 11.2 Mn and
152.7Mn, respectively. At EBIT level Agri and bakery shows de-growth of 6.8 mn and 0.1 Mn
respectively, while Renewable and Vet CA is positive at INR 3.8 Mn and INR 4.5 Mn. During
the quarter Q3FY17, it also announced acquisition of reliance Retail ltd with brands like Dairy
life and Dairy Pure. Also it demerged its Retail, Agri and Bakery division to Future Retail.

Valuations & Outlook: Heritage Foods Ltd is a strong player and among the top 3 player in Share holding Pattern (%)
southern India. Its most of the revenue comes in from liquid milk business. It has plans to
Particular Dec16 Sep16 Jun16
expand in value added products where it enjoys double margins than liquid milk. Company
has strong growth plans for Dairy and retail. Their focus remained strong on growing the Promoters 39.9 39.9 39.9
core business and invests behind dairy and retail. We expect growth to be around 17%-18%
FIIs 6.41 5.72 4.6
and EBIDTA margin to be in range of 5.6%-5.7% and PAT margins to be 2.8% to 2.9%. At
CMP of INR 984, we have a BUY rating on the stock with target price of INR 1205 and DIIs 6.24 5.78 4.8
upside of 22.4% Others 47.45 48.6 50.7

Total 100 100 100

Key Financials:
Source: BSE
Key Financials FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E
Sales 20729.7 23805.8 27614.8 32309.3 38771.1
EBITDA 820.3 1305.2 1551.8 1815.6 2217.5 Nirvi Ashar
PAT 283.6 554.3 767.9 904.1 1117.9 nirvi.ashar@krchoksey.com
EBITDA Margins % 4.0% 5.5% 5.6% 5.6% 5.7% 91-22-6696 5507
PAT Margins % 1.4% 2.3% 2.8% 2.8% 2.9%
EPS 12.2 23.9 33.1 39.0 48.2
www.krchoksey.com
ROE 14.7% 23.1% 26.8% 25.3% 25.4%
91-22-6696 5555
Debt/Equity % 0.74 0.44 0.40 0.34 0.30
91-22-6691 9569
PE (x) 80.5 41.2 29.7 25.2 20.4
EV/EBITDA 29.1 17.9 15.1 12.7 10.3
Source: Company Data, KRChoksey Estimates

KRChoksey Institutional Research is also available on Bloomberg KRCS<GO>, Thomson Reuters, Factset and Capital IQ January 27, 2017
Hindustan Unilever Ltd.
Q3FY17 Quarterly Results (INR Mn)
Particulars Q3FY17 Q2FY17 Q3FY16 Q-o-Q Y-o-Y

Net Sales 6493.5 6267.7 5716.8 3.6% 13.6%

Other operating income 177.15 145.1 109.1 22.1% 62.3%
Net Sales & Other Operating Income 6670.6 6412.7 5825.9 4.0% 14.5%
Total Expenditure 6283.03 6083.3 5526.2 3.3% 13.7%
Cost of Raw Materials 3535 3384.8 3756.3 4.4% -5.9%
Purchase of Finished Goods 1683 1418.0 1265.0 18.7% 33.0%
(Increase) / Decrease In Stocks -38.4 208.4 -408.3 -118.4% -90.6%
Employee Cost 427.03 415.2 345.5 2.8% 23.6%
Operating & Manufacturing Expenses 676.4 656.8 567.7 3.0% 19.1%
EBIDTA 387.6 329.5 299.7 17.6% 29.4%
EBITDA Margins (%) 5.8% 5.1% 5.1% 67bps 67bps
Depreciation 95.891 94.3 85.6 1.6% 12.0%
EBIT 291.729 235.1 214.0 24.1% 9.9%
Other Income 9.065 10.9 11.7 -17.1% -22.6%
Interest 24.442 24.6 32.7 -0.5% -25.3%
PBT 276.352 221.5 193.0 24.8% 43.2%
Tax 76.875 64.9 65.6 18.5% 17.2%
PAT before Exceptional 199.48 156.6 127.4 27.4% 56.6%
PAT Margin (%) 3.0% 2.4% 2.2% 55bps 80bps
Exceptional Items 0 0 13.695 - -100.0%
PAT after Exceptional 199.48 156.6 113.7 27.4% 75.4%
PAT Margin (%) 3.0% 2.4% 2.0% 55bps 104bps
EPS 9.13 9.26 6.59 -1.4% 38.5%
Source: Company Data, KRChoksey Research

Q3FY17 Segmental Performance (INR Mn)

Particulars Q3FY17 Q2FY17 Q3FY16 Q-o-Q Y-o-Y
Dairy 4595.8 4620.0 4303.4 -0.5% 6.8%
Retail 2046.4 1746.3 1444.4 17.2% 41.7%
Agri 121.1 127.9 84.9 -5.4% 42.5%
Bakery 34.2 36.0 21.5 -5.0% 59.0%
Renewable 11.2 12.3 7.9 -8.8% 42.9%
Vet CA 152.7 136.6 155.7 11.8% -1.9%
TOTAL 6961.5 6679.1 6017.8 4.2% 11.0%
Source: Company Data, KRChoksey Research

Q3FY17 Segmental EBIT (INR Mn)

Particulars Q3FY17 Q2FY17 Q3FY16 Q-o-Q Y-o-Y
Dairy 310.6 304.8 256.5 1.9% 21.1%
Retail -11.4 -62.3 -44.3 -81.8% -74.3%
Agri -6.8 -9.1 -7.3 -25.1% -6.8%
Bakery -0.1 0.4 -0.6 -124.5% -83.0%
Renewable 3.8 8.1 3.6 -53.8% 4.7%
Vet CA 4.5 3.3 3.5 34.9% 27.3%
TOTAL 300.5 245.2 211.4 22.6% 16.0%
Less: interest Exp 24.4 24.6 32.7 -0.5% -25.3%
Add/Less: (other) 0.2 1.2 0.6 -83.8% -69.7%
PBT 276.3 221.9 179.3 24.5% 54.1%
Source: Company Data, KRChoksey Research

2 KRChoksey - Institutional Research

Hindustan Unilever Ltd.

Q3FY17 Segmental EBIT Margins

Particulars Q3FY17 Q2FY17 Q3FY16 Q-o-Q Y-o-Y
Dairy 103.3% 124.3% 121.3% -16.9% -14.8%
Retail -3.8% -25.4% -20.9% -85.1% -81.9%
Agri -2.3% -3.7% -3.5% -38.9% -34.5%
Bakery 0.0% 0.2% -0.3% -120.0% -88.0%
Renewable 1.2% 3.3% 1.7% -62.3% -26.3%
Vet CA 1.5% 1.4% 1.7% 10.1% -10.5%
Source: Company Data, KRChoksey Research

Conference Call & Highlights:

Dairy: Heritage Foods ltd has total 10.54 LLPD is procurement of milk which is decreased from Q3FY16 by 12.16% which
was at 12.01 LLPD, from 8 states like Andhra Pradesh, Delhi, Haryana, Karnataka, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Telangana &
Tamil Nadu and it sold milk of around 8.63 LLPD in Q3FY17 as compared to 8.15 LLPD in Q3FY16 which is an increase of
5.89% in milk sales. It average cost of procurement has increased by 5% from INR 30.98 in Q3FY16 to INR 32.64 in
Q3FY17.
Milk price have been moving up from last 2-3 quarters and also it has moved in Q3FY17, Management has taken price hike
in some of the markets and in some it will happen in the coming days. Price hike in the range of INR 2-5 will happen for the
products like curd, etc.
Sales of Dairy were affected due to Demonetization, were in there was cash crunch and kirana shops were affected. Also in
that premium products like ice creams were affected.
Heritage had a tied up with a plant in Haryana in which it converted Milk to milk powder. But the contract was over and it
did not work out somehow this year. So the volume was a bit on lower side.
Cow & buffalo milk mix and price is different for different states. Milk realization for cow is low as the fat content is low up-to
4% while it is high for buffalo up-to 8.5% so realization is higher for their milk. On an average Fat in procurement of milk of
both cow and buffalo is is around 5.2%. Fat content for double tone milk is 1.5%, tone milk is 3% and standardized is 0.5%.

Retail: It has around 127 stores in Q3FY17 with average stores sales of around INR 1330 per sqft on monthly basis. Also
the retail division has turned EBIDTA positive and has shown profit of INR 11 Mn with margins of around 0.53% as
compared to de-growth of 1.43%. Heritage has opened 5 stores during Q3FY17.

Other Business includes Agri, Bakery, VAT Ca and renewable whose revenue was around 121.05Mn, 34.2Mn, 152.73Mn
and 11.23Mn respectively. Due to commissioned of 2nd wind power project in Vajrakarur in Andhra Pradesh company is
receiving some accelerate depreciation benefit so the tax rate has been decreased from 34% to 28-29%

Deals:
Heritage with Reliance Retail: Heritage foods Ltd has signed agreement with Reliance Retail Ltd for purchasing its dairy
business. Reliance being pan India Dairy company which operates under the brand Dairy Life & Dairy Pure and procure
around 2.25 Lakh Liters of milk per day from around 10 states. Positive for heritage would be that it would get access
existing & new states (like North belt of Punjab, Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan). Also after agreement gets
completed Heritage Foods would be allowed to sell its products through Reliance retail & Wholesales outlets (present 600
outlets)

Heritage with Future Group: Heritage Foods Ltd would de-merge its retail business which operates 127 Heritage Fresh
stores spread over 4.43 lakh square feet, and Agri and Bakery divisions, to Future Retail Limited. On closure of the
transaction, Heritage Foods Limited will own 3.65% of shareholding in Future Retail Limited, through fresh issuance of
shares by the Company.

Both the deals are in progress and are waiting for the clearance by the end of FY17. The process of de-merge and merge
would take place in Q1FY18. After the deal it would be clear about how the company would operate, it would get exposure
to new states like Delhi, Rajasthan, Etc which is benefit for Heritage foods Ltd. It would improve procurement of milk,
distribution reach and joint venture with European client would be beneficial.
At this point in time management was not in position to declare about the deals, and once complete it would give in the
clarity.

Growth & strategy going ahead:

Target is to grow total revenue to INR 6000 Crs by 2020 out of which dairy would be around INR 4150 Crs.
Curd to remain core area of Excellency.
Want to become a pan India Player by entering 2 tier and 3 tier cities.
To improve contribution of value added products to 40% by 2020.

3 KRChoksey - Institutional Research

Hindustan Unilever Ltd.
Income statement: (INR Mn)
Particulars FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E
Net Sales 20729.7 23805.8 27614.8 32309.3 38771.1
EXPENDITURE :
Cost of Materials Consumed 13139.4 14137.9 16417.3 19208.3 23049.9
Purchase of Stock In Trade 4218.4 4929.7 5724.5 6697.6 8037.2
(Increase) / Decrease In Stocks -507.9 -280.8 -326.1 -381.6 -457.9
Total RM Costs 16849.8 18786.7 21815.7 25524.3 30629.2
Employee Cost 1107.2 1399.9 1623.9 1900.0 2280.0
Other Expenses 1675.7 2314.0 2623.4 3069.4 3644.5
Total Expenditure 19909.4 22500.6 26063.0 30493.7 36553.6
Operating Profit (EBIDTA) 820.3 1305.2 1551.8 1815.6 2217.5
EBIDTA Margin % 4.0% 5.5% 5.6% 5.6% 5.7%
Depreciation 339.9 345.1 276.1 323.1 387.7
Operating Profit (EBIT) 480.4 960.1 1275.7 1492.5 1829.8
Other Income 71.8 68.0 72.0 80.0 90.0
Interest 159.3 154.6 147.7 159.8 173.0
PBT (Excld Exceptional) 392.9 873.5 1199.9 1412.7 1746.8
Exceptional Income / Expenses 0.0 -13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0
Profit before Tax 392.9 859.8 1199.9 1412.7 1746.8
Provision for Tax 109.3 305.5 432.0 508.6 628.8
Profit After Tax 283.6 554.3 767.9 904.1 1117.9
PAT Margin % 1.4% 2.3% 2.8% 2.8% 2.9%
Source: Company Data, KRChoksey Research Estimates

Balance Sheet (INR Mn).

Particulars FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E
EQUITY AND LIABILITIES
Share Capital 232.0 232.0 232.0 232.0 232.0
Total Reserves 1697.3 2167.0 2637.5 3335.9 4170.4
Shareholder's Funds 1929.3 2399.0 2869.5 3567.9 4402.4
Minority Interest 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Long-Term Borrowings 557.4 658.5 724.3 796.7 876.4
Deferred Tax Assets / Liabilities 188.1 186.8 186.8 186.8 186.8
Long Term Provisions 15.7 55.2 55.2 64.6 77.5
Other Long Term Liabilities 100.0 104.5 110.5 129.2 155.1
Total Non-Current Liabilities 861.1 1004.9 1076.8 1177.4 1295.8
Current Liabilities
Trade Payables 775.3 846.7 1016.1 1188.8 1426.6
Short Term Borrowings 867.3 392.5 412.1 432.7 454.4
Short Term Provisions 146.6 158.2 193.3 226.2 271.4
Other Current Liabilities 677.8 947.1 1104.6 1292.4 1550.8
Total Current Liabilities 2467.0 2344.5 2726.1 3140.1 3703.2
Total Liabilities 5257.6 5748.6 6672.6 7885.5 9401.5
Assets
Net Block 2806.5 3216.1 3716.1 4216.1 4716.1
Capital Work in Progress 90.0 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Non Current Investments 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0
Long Term Loans & Advances 208.5 237.2 276.15 323.09 387.71
Other Non Current Assets 7.3 6.8 8.28 9.69 11.63
Total Non-Current Assets 3120.4 3468.1 4008.6 4556.9 5123.5
Current Assets
Inventories 1393.7 1449.1 1673.5 1888.1 2265.7
Sundry Debtors 242.4 287.9 333.9 380.6 456.8
Cash and Bank 407.8 453.2 551.9 937.4 1408.7
Currents Investments 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2

4 KRChoksey - Institutional Research

Hindustan Unilever Ltd.
Short Term Loans and Advances 77.6 68.1 79.0 92.4 110.9
Other Current Assets 15.7 22.0 25.5 29.9 35.9
Total Current Assets 2137.2 2280.5 2664.0 3328.6 4278.1
Total Assets 5257.6 5748.6 6672.6 7885.5 9401.5

Source: Company Data, KRChoksey Research Estimate

Cash Flow Abstract: (INR Mn)

Particulars FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E
PBT 392.9 859.8 1199.9 1412.7 1746.8
Add: Depreciation 339.9 345.1 276.1 323.1 387.7
Add: Interest 159.3 154.6 147.7 159.8 173.0
Less: Other Income /Interest Rec -71.8 -68.0 -72.0 -80.0 -90.0
Increase / Decrease in WC -298.9 -29.5 -101.1 -88.6 -216.0
Cash flow from Operations 324.6 869.9 943.0 1138.7 1289.7
Cash flow from Investing Activity -19.9 -341.6 -428.0 -420.0 -410.0
Cash flow from Financing Activity -341.8 -483.0 -416.3 -333.1 -408.4
Net change in Cash (Inflow/Outflow) -37.2 45.4 98.7 385.5 471.2
Opening Cash balance 445.0 407.8 453.2 551.9 937.4
Closing Cash Balance 407.8 453.2 551.9 937.4 1408.6
Source: Company Data, KRChoksey Research Estimates

Key Ratios:
Particulars FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E FY18E
EPS 12.2 23.9 33.1 39.0 48.2
BV 83.2 103.4 123.7 153.8 189.8
DPS 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0
EBITDA Margin (%) 4.0% 5.5% 5.6% 5.6% 5.7%
PAT Margin (%) 1.4% 2.3% 2.8% 2.8% 2.9%
Net Sales Growth % 20.4% 14.8% 16.0% 17.0% 20.0%
EBIDTA Growth % -13.6% 59.1% 18.9% 17.0% 22.1%
PAT Growth % -37.4% 95.4% 38.5% 17.7% 23.7%
PE (x) 80.5 41.2 29.7 25.2 20.4
Price/BV 11.8 9.5 8.0 6.4 5.2
EV/EBITDA 29.1 17.9 15.1 12.7 10.3
EV/Sales 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.6
ROE (%) 14.7% 23.1% 26.8% 25.3% 25.4%
Debt/Equity % 0.74 0.44 0.40 0.34 0.30
EV/EBIT 49.6 24.4 18.4 15.5 12.4
Source: Company Data, KRChoksey Research Estimates

5 KRChoksey - Institutional Research

Hindustan Unilever Ltd.
Rating Legend
Hindustan Unilever Ltd
CMP Our Rating Upside
Date TP (Rs) Recommendation
(Rs)
27-Jan-17 984 1042 BUY Buy More than 15%
01-Nov-16 869 1043 BUY
01-Aug-16 642 801 BUY Accumulate 5% - 15%

Hold 0 5%

Reduce -5% 0

Sell Less than -5%

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6 KRChoksey - Institutional Research