EcoNorthwest's Jacksonville Housing Study

City of Jacksonville
Housing Needs Analysis and

Economic Opportunities Analysis
August 2017
Prepared for:
City of Jacksonville
DRAFT REPORT
ECONorthwest
KOIN Center
222 SW Columbia Street
Suite 1600
Portland, OR 97201
503.222.6060
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Acknowledgments
ECONorthwest prepared this report for the City of Jacksonville. ECONorthwest and the City of
Jacksonville thank the many people who helped to develop the Jacksonville Housing Needs
Analysis and Economic Opportunities Analysis.
For over 40 years ECONorthwest has helped its clients make sound decisions based on rigorous
economic, planning, and financial analysis. For more information about ECONorthwest:
www.econw.com. For more information about this report, please contact:
Jeffrey N. Alvis
Administrator / Public Works Director
City Of Jacksonville
541-899-1231 541-899-7882 (fax)
administrator@jacksonvilleor.us
Beth Goodman
ECONorthwest
222 SW Columbia, Suite 1600
Portland, OR 97201
503-222-6060
goodman@econw.com
ECONorthwest Draft - Jacksonville Housing Needs Analysis and Economic Opportunities Analysis i
ECONorthwest Draft - - Jacksonville Housing Needs Analysis and Economic Opportunities Analysis ii
Table of Contents
1. Introduction 5
Purpose and Methods 5
Data used in this analysis 7
Organization of this Report 8
2. Residential Buildable Lands Inventory 9
Methods 9
Definitions and Assumptions 12
Development constraints 13
Results of the Buildable Lands Inventory 15
3. Housing Needs Analysis 25
Introduction 25
Historical and Recent Development Trends 27
Step 1: Project the number of new housing units needed in the next 20 years 34
Step 2: Identify relevant national, state, and local demographic and economic
trends and factors that may affect the 20-year projection of structure type mix 36
Step 3: Describe the demographic characteristics of the population and, if possible,
housing trends that relate to demand for different types of housing 51
Step 4: Determine the types of housing that are likely to be affordable to the
projected households based on household income 54
Summary of the Factors Affecting Jacksonvilles Housing Needs 62
Step 5: Determine the needed housing mix and density ranges for each
plan designation and the average needed net density for all structure types 63
Step 6: Estimate the number of additional needed units by structure type 63
4. Economic Opportunities Analysis 64
Introduction 64
Factors Affecting Future Economic Growth in Jacksonville 66
Jacksonvilles Competitive Advantages 100
Employment Growth and Target Industries 106
5. Chapter 5. Land Sufficiency and Conclusions 115
Framework for the Residential Capacity Analysis 115
Land Sufficiency 117
Conclusions and Recommendations 118
ECONorthwest Draft - - Jacksonville Housing Needs Analysis and Economic Opportunities Analysis iii
ECONorthwest Draft - - Jacksonville Housing Needs Analysis and Economic Opportunities Analysis iv
1. Introduction
This report presents Jacksonvilles Housing Needs Analysis and Economic Opportunities
Analysis for the 2016 to 2036 period. It is intended to comply with statewide planning policies
that govern planning for housing and residential development, including Goal 10 (Housing),
and OAR 660 Division 8. The methods used for this study generally follow the Planning for
Residential Growth guidebook, published by the Oregon Transportation and Growth
Management Program (1996).
This report provides Jacksonville with a factual basis to assess whether the City has sufficient
land within its Urban Growth Boundary (UGB) to accommodate 20 years of growth. It provides
information that informs future planning efforts, including changes to the Citys comprehensive
Plan or zoning ordinance. It provides the City with information about the housing market in
Jacksonville, describes the factors that will affect housing demand and employment growth in
Jacksonville, and information to support economic development planning.
Purpose and Methods

The purpose of this report is to provide the technical analysis required to determine if the City
has a 20-year supply of buildable lands. It includes data that the City can use to update the Goal
9, 10, and 14 factual components of the Jacksonville Comprehensive Plan including the
buildable lands inventory. Specifically, this report presents:
A housing needs analysis consistent with Goal 10;
An economic opportunities analysis consistent with Goal 9 and OAR 660-009; and
A buildable lands inventory consistent with Goal 9 and 10 requirements.
This report also compares demand for land with the supply of land. This analysis is required by
statewide Planning Goals 9, 10, and 14 to determine if the City has sufficient buildable land to
meet 20 years of demand (UGB).
In general, an urbanization analysis contains a supply analysis (buildable and redevelopable
land by type) and a demand analysis (population and employment growth leading to demand
for more built space: residential and non-residential development). The geographic scope of the
urbanization analysis is all land inside the Jacksonville Urban Growth Boundary.
Buildable Lands
The general structure of the buildable land (supply) analysis is based on the DLCD HB 2709
workbook Planning for Residential Growth A Workbook for Oregons Urban Areas, which
specifically addresses residential lands. The steps in the supply inventory are:
1. Calculate the gross vacant acres by plan designation, including fully vacant and partially
vacant parcels.
ECONorthwest Draft - - Jacksonville Housing Needs Analysis and Economic Opportunities Analysis 5
2. Calculate gross buildable vacant acres by plan designation by subtracting unbuildable
acres from total acres.
3. Calculate net buildable acres by plan designation, subtracting land for future public
facilities from gross buildable vacant acres.
4. Calculate total net buildable acres by plan designation by adding redevelopable acres to
net buildable acres.
The supply analysis builds from a parcel-level database to estimates of buildable land by plan
designation and zoning.1 For other generalized land use types, each parcel was classified into
one of the following categories:
Vacant land
Partially Vacant land
Undevelopable land
Developed land
Public or exempt land
The inventory identifies areas in floodplains, wetlands identified in the Oregon Wetland
Coverage for Jackson County, steep slopes, and land identified for future public facilities as
constrained or committed lands. These areas were deducted or partially deducted from lands
that were identified as vacant or partially vacant. Definitions of these characteristics and the
results of the buildable residential lands inventory are presented in Chapter 2.
Housing
Demand for land is characterized through analysis of national, regional, and local demographic
and economic data. For residential uses, population growth and household characteristics drive
demand. For the residential sector, for example, information about the characteristics of
households is used to identify types of housing that will be sought by households.
The method used in this analysis is generally consistent with the method described in the
DLCD document Planning for Residential Needs. The Workbook describes six steps in conducting
a residential needs assessment:
1. Project the number of new housing units needed in the next 20 years.
2. Identify relevant national, state, and local demographic trends that will affect the 20-
year projection of structure type mix.
3. Describe the demographic characteristics of the population, and household trends that
relate to demand for different types of housing.
1 The parcel-level database was based on information from the City of Jacksonville.
4. Determine the types of housing that are likely to be affordable to the projected
households.
5. Estimate the number of additional needed units by structure type.
6. Determine the needed density ranges for each plan designation and the average needed
net density for all structure types.
Chapter 3 presents the housing needs analysis which provides estimates of needed housing by
type, density, and price. It also provides estimates of land that will be required to accommodate
future population growth.
Economy
Oregon Planning Goal 9 and its Administrative Rule require jurisdictions to provide an
adequate supply of buildable lands for a variety of commercial and industrial activities. In
addition, Goal 9 requires plans to be based on an analysis of the comparative advantages of a
planning region. Comparative advantage is defined in terms of the relative availability of
factors that affect the costs of doing business in the planning region; Goal 9 specifies many
geographic, economic, and institutional factors that an analysis of comparative advantage
should consider.
The analysis of comparative advantage in this report includes the locational factors specified by
Goal 9 and OAR 660-009. It assesses qualitatively the availability of these factors in Jacksonville
relative to Jackson County, and to Oregon.
Data used in this analysis

Throughout this analysis, we use data from well-recognized and reliable data sources. One key
source for data about housing and households is the U.S. Census. This report primarily uses
data from two Census sources:
The Decennial Census, which is completed every ten years and is a survey of all
households in the U.S. The Decennial Census is considered the best available data for
information such as demographics (e.g., number of people, age distribution, or ethnic or
racial composition), household characteristics (e.g., household size and composition),
and housing occupancy characteristics. As of the 2010 Decennial Census, it does not
collect more detailed household information, such as income, housing costs, housing
characteristics, and other important household information. Decennial Census data is
available for 2000 and 2010.
The American Community Survey (ACS), which is completed every year and is a
sample of households in the U.S. The 2013 ACS sampled about 3.5 million households in
2013 or about 2.5% of the households in the nation. The ACS collects detailed
information about households, such as: demographics (e.g., number of people, age
distribution, ethnic or racial composition, country of origin, language spoken at home,
and educational attainment), household characteristics (e.g., household size and
composition), housing characteristics (e.g., type of housing unit, year unit built, or
number of bedrooms), housing costs (e.g., rent, mortgage, utility, and insurance),
housing value, income, and other characteristics.
The Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) from the Oregon
Employment Department. QCEW data is employment data for businesses located within
the Jacksonville UGB. It includes information about the number of employees and
payroll by industry (e.g., manufacturing, retail, or health care). This report uses QCEW
data from 2014, the most recently available information.
In addition, the report uses information from other data sources:
Jacksonville GIS data for the buildable lands inventory includes data about tax lots,
Jackson County Assessors data, data about physical constraints (e.g., rivers or
wetlands), data about rights-of-way and roads, and related data about Jacksonvilles
land base. This data is current as of 2015.
Jacksonville Building Permit data was provided by the City and covers development
over the 2000 to 2013 period. This report presents data about the number and type of
building permits issued annually since 2000. It also presents data about residential
development density, in dwelling units per acre, developed between 2000 and 2014.
Organization of this Report

The rest of this document is organized as follows:
Chapter 2. Residential Buildable Lands Inventory presents the methodology and results
of Jacksonvilles inventory of residential land.
Chapter 3. Housing Needs Analysis includes historical and recent development trends
that summarizes the state, regional, and local housing market trends affecting
Jacksonvilles housing market and presents the forecast for housing growth in
Jacksonville, describing housing need by density ranges and income levels. Also includes
demographic and other factors affecting residential development in Jacksonville, focusing
on the key determinants of housing need: age, income, and household composition, and
describes housing affordability.
Chapter 4. Economic Opportunities Analysis summarizes the economic trends that affect
Jacksonville now and into the future.
Chapter 5. Land Sufficiency and Conclusions estimates Jacksonvilles residential land
sufficiency needed to accommodate expected growth over the planning period and
provides recommendations.
2. Residential Buildable Lands Inventory
This chapter provides a summary of the buildable lands inventory for the Jacksonville UGB.
ECONorthwest (ECO) prepared a Goal 10 compliant housing needs analysis (HNA) and a Goal
9 compliant Economic Opportunities Analysis (EOA) for the City of Jacksonville to assess
whether the city has sufficient land within its Urban Growth Boundary (UGB) to accommodate
population and employment growth forecast for the 20-year period between 2016 and 2036. A
key component of this study was the buildable lands inventory (BLI). The BLI for both
residential and commercial and industrial lands consists of several common steps:
1. Classifying land into mutually exclusive categories by development status
2. Deducting land with development constraints
3. Developing tabular summaries of lands by classification and plan designation
4. Estimating land holding capacity in terms of dwellings and employees
The process also included verification of land classifications (these can be thought of as
development status) by City staff through review of draft maps that ECO provided. This
memorandum summarizes the methods ECO used to conduct the residential and employment
buildable lands inventory, including definitions we used for the classifications. It also includes a
list of development constraints and how we addressed them in the buildable land inventory.
Methods
The BLI for Jacksonville includes all land within the Jacksonville urban growth boundary
(UGB). This includes the supply of land for residential uses, for commercial and industrial uses,
and for public and other uses.
Residential and Other Non-employment Lands

The general structure of the residential buildable land (supply) inventory is generally based on
the DLCD HB 2709 workbook Planning for Residential Growth A Workbook for Oregons Urban
Areas, which specifically addresses residential lands. The buildable lands inventory uses
methods and definitions that are consistent with OAR 660-008 and OAR 660-024. The steps in
the supply inventory are:
Step 1: Generate land base. This involves selecting all of the tax lots in the
Jacksonville UGB with residential and other non-employment plan designations or
commercial and industrial designations with a clear and objective path for residential
development. Plan designations included in the residential inventory include:
o Border Residential
o Hillside Residential
o Single-Family Residential
o Multi-family Residential
o Planned Unit Development
o Artisan District
o Historic Core
o General Commercial
Step 2: Classify lands. For other generalized land use types, ECO classified each parcel
into one of the following categories:2
o Vacant land
o Partially Vacant land - Partially vacant tax lots are those occupied by a use but
which contain enough land to be further subdivided without need of rezoning.
o Undevelopable land - Land that has no access or potential access, land that is
already committed to other uses by policy, or tax lots that are more than 90%
constrained.
o Developed land - Land that is developed at densities consistent with zoning with
improvements that make it unlikely to redevelop during the analysis period.
Lands not classified as vacant, partially vacant, or undevelopable are considered
developed.
o Public or Exempt Land - Lands in public ownership are considered unavailable
for residential development. This includes lands in Federal, State, County, or
City ownership or other lands with a County Assessment property tax
exemption code. This category only includes public lands that are located in
residential plan designations.
Step 3: Identify constraints. Identify lands in floodways, wetlands identified in the
Oregon Wetland Coverage for Jackson County, slopes greater than 15%, and land
identified for future public facilities as constrained or committed lands. These areas are
deducted from lands that were identified as vacant or partially vacant. All constraints
are merged into a single constraint file, which is then used to identify the area of each
tax lot that is constrained.
A separate consideration is land with slopes and land in the 100-year floodplain. OAR
660-008 allows lands in the 100-year floodplain and in slopes over 25% to be deducted
from the buildable lands inventory. To account for these constraints, the analysis of
residential capacity may make deductions by way of lower density assumptions for
these lands.
2 We addressed redevelopment potential as a separate part of the methodology and as a demand side consideration.
Step 4: Verification. ECO used a multi-step verification process. The first verification
step involved a rapid visual assessment of land classifications using GIS and recent
aerial photos. Rapid visual assessment involves reviewing classifications overlaid on
recent aerial photographs to verify uses on the ground. ECO reviewed all tax lots
included in the inventory using the rapid visual assessment methodology. The second
round of verification involved City staff verifying the rapid visual assessment output.
When necessary, ECO amended the BLI based on City staff review and a discussion of
the Citys comments.
Step 5: Tabulation and mapping. The results are presented in tabular and map format.
We included a comprehensive plan map, the land base by classification, vacant lands by
plan designation, and vacant lands by plan designation with constraints.
Commercial and Industrial Lands

For commercial and industrial land, the general structure is similar to the residential lands
process of the supply analysis with a few differences. The buildable lands inventory uses
methods and definitions that are consistent with OAR 660-009 and OAR 660-024. The steps in
the supply inventory are:
Step 1: Generate land base. The commercial and industrial inventory used the same
geographic extent as the residential inventory (all of the tax lots in the Jacksonville
UGB). Plan designations in the commercial and industrial inventory include:
o Historic Core
o General Commercial
o Artisan District
Step 2: Classify lands. Same classes as residential, but using different definitions (see
next section).
o Vacant land
o Partially Vacant land
o Undevelopable land
o Developed land
o Public or Exempt Land
Step 3: Identify constraints. Identify lands in floodways and 100-year floodplain,
wetlands identified in the Oregon Wetland Coverage for Jackson County, slopes greater
than 15%, and land identified for future public facilities as constrained or committed
lands. These areas were deducted from lands that were identified as vacant or partially
vacant. All constraints were merged into a single constraint file, which was then used to
identify the constrained area of each tax lot.
Step 4: Verification. Conducted simultaneously with residential land verification using
the same methods.
Step 5: Tabulation and mapping. The results are presented in tabular and map format
separate from the residential land results.
Definitions and Assumptions

The second step in the buildable inventory is to develop working definitions and assumptions.
ECO initially classified development status (using the categories described in Step 2 above)
using a rule-based methodology described below. We generated maps that show the results of
the application of those rules, with some adjustments made through a validation step based on
review of aerial photos, building permit data, and local review.
ECO developed the buildable lands inventory with a tax lot database from Jackson County GIS.
The tax lot database is current as of May 2016. The inventory builds from the tax lot level
database to estimate buildable land by plan designation.
Residential Lands
A key step in the buildable lands analysis is to classify each tax lot that allows residential uses
into a set of mutually exclusive categories based on development status. Consistent with the
DLCD Residential Lands Workbook, as well as applicable administrative rules, ECO classified all
tax lots in the UGB into one of the following categories:
Vacant land. Tax lots that have no structures or have buildings with very little
improvement value. For the purpose of this inventory, lands with improvement values
under $10,000 were considered vacant (not including lands that are identified as having
mobile homes).
Partially vacant land. Partially vacant tax lots are those occupied by a use but which
contain enough land to be further subdivided without need of rezoning. We used the
safe harbor described in OAR 660-024-0050(2):
(a) The infill potential of developed residential lots or parcels of one-half acre or more
may be determined by subtracting one-quarter acre (10,890 square feet) for the existing
dwelling and assuming that the remainder is buildable land;
(b) Existing lots of less than one-half acre that are currently occupied by a residence may
be assumed to be fully developed.
Undevelopable land. Vacant land that is under the minimum lot size for the underlying
zoning district, land that has no access or potential access, land that is already
committed to other uses by policy, or tax lots that are more than 90% constrained.
Developed land. Land that is developed at densities consistent with zoning and
improvements that make it unlikely to redevelop during the analysis period. Lands not
classified as vacant, partially-vacant, potentially redevelopable, or undevelopable are
considered developed.
Public or exempt land. Lands in public or semi-public ownership are considered
unavailable for development. This includes lands in Federal, State, County, or City
ownership as well as lands owned by churches and other semi-public organizations.
Public lands were identified using the Jackson County Assessment property tax
exemption codes.
Commercial and Industrial Lands

The commercial and industrial buildable lands analysis classifies each tax lot into a set of
mutually exclusive categories based on development status. The categories are the same as for
the residential analysis, but defined differently based on OAR 660-009-0005.
Developed land. Non-vacant land that is likely to be redeveloped during the planning
period.
Vacant land. A tax lot
(a) Equal to or larger than 4,000 square feet not currently containing permanent
buildings or improvements, or
(b) Larger than one-half acres where 4,000 square feet or less is occupied by permanent
buildings or improvements (no parcels met this criteria).
Partially vacant land. Tax lots over one acre that are partially occupied by a use. At a
minimum, one half acre of the lot is not occupied by said use and could be further
developed based on the zoning.
Undevelopable land. Vacant land that is under 4,000 square feet, land that has no access or
potential access, land that is already committed to other uses by policy, or tax lots that
are more than 90% constrained.
Public or exempt land. Same as residential definition.
Development constraints
Consistent with state guidance on buildable lands inventories, ECO deducted certain
constraints from the buildable lands inventory including wetlands and steep slopes.
Residential Land
ECO used categories consistent with OAR 660-008-0005(2):
(2) Buildable Land means land within the urban growth boundary, including both vacant
and developed land likely to be redeveloped, that is suitable, available, and necessary for
residential, commercial, or industrial uses. Publicly owned land is generally not considered
available for any of these uses. Land is generally considered suitable and available unless
it:
(a) Is severely constrained by natural hazards as determined under Statewide Planning

Goal 7;
(b) Is subject to natural resource protection measures determined under statewide
Planning Goals 5, 15, 16, 17, or 18;
(c) Has slopes of 25 percent or greater;
(d) Is within the 100-year flood plain; or
(e) Cannot be provided with public facilities.
Based on the Division 8 rule, we deducted the constraints listed above from the residential
lands inventory.
We classified portions of tax lots that fall within the following areas as constrained
(unbuildable):
Lands within floodways. We used FEMA FIRM maps to identify lands in floodways.
These lands were deducted from the inventory.
Lands in regulated wetlands. We used wetland shapefile provided by Jackson County to
identify wetlands.
Lands with slopes of 25 percent or greater.
Setbacks: Daisy Creek 25 feet; Jackson Creek 50 feet; wetlands 50 feet.
We did not deduct lands that could not be serviced. Unless the City can obtain written
documentation from service providers that they cannot serve or do not plan to serve specific
areas within the UGB during the 20-year planning period, such deductions cannot be justified.
Commercial and Industrial Land

We propose to use categories consistent with OAR 660-009-0005(2)
Development constraints are factors that temporarily or permanently limit or prevent the
use of land for economic development. Development constrains include, but are not limited
to, wetlands, environmentally sensitive areas, environmental contamination areas, steep
slopes, cultural and archeological resource areas, infrastructure deficiency areas, areas of
parcel fragmentation, or natural hazard areas.
We propose to classify portions of tax lots that fall within these areas as constrained
(unbuildable):
Lands within floodways and 100-year floodplains. We used FEMA FIRM maps to
identify lands in floodways. These lands were deducted from the inventory.
Lands in regulated wetlands. We used the local wetland inventory provided by Jackson
County to identify wetlands.
Commercial and industrial land with slopes over 15 percent.
Results of the Buildable Lands Inventory
Land Base
The Residential Buildable Land Inventory includes a review of the following residential plan
designations:
Border Residential
Hillside Residential
Single-Family Residential
Multi-family Residential
Planned Unit Development
Artisan District
Historic Core
General Commercial
The Commercial Buildable Land Inventory includes a review of the following commercial plan
designations:
Historic Core
General Commercial
Artisan District
Exhibit 1 shows residential land in Jacksonville by classification (development status). The
results show that Jacksonville has 773 total acres in residential plan designations, 56 acres in
commercial, 3 in industrial, and 236 in open space designations.
Exhibit 1. Land by Classification, Jacksonville UGB, 2016
Partially
Zone Developed Vacant* Vacant Public Undevelopable Total
Residential Total 306.0 286.3 134.8 25.2 20.2 772.5
Hillside Residential (HR) 69.6 195.5 107.3 8.0 14.3 394.7
Single Family
Residential (SFR) 158.4 41.4 20.8 4.7 1.2 226.5
Border Residential (BR) 7.6 34.5 4.2 9.8 1.5 57.8
Multi-Family Residential
(MFR) 42.7 1.3 0.1 0.3 0.0 44.4
Planning Unit
Development (PUD) 27.3 6.1 2.4 2.3 0.8 38.9
Rural Residential (RR) 0.4 7.4 0.0 0.0 2.3 10.1
Commercial Total 43.7 4.6 1.2 4.2 2.3 56.0
Historic Core (HC) 26.3 2.2 0.7 3.2 0.3 32.8
General Commercial 17.4 2.4 0.4 1.0 2.0 23.2
Industrial Total 0.0 2.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 2.8
Artisan District (AD) 0.0 2.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 2.8
Open Space Total 9.1 0.0 0.0 227.2 0.0 236.3
Special Protection (SP) 9.1 0.0 0.0 227.2 0.0 236.3
Source: ECONorthwest analysis of City of Jacksonville GIS data
*Partially Vacant parcels include 0.25 developed acres with the remainder vacant.
Exhibit 2 summarizes the data in Exhibit 1 to show the proportion of land in general plan
designation categories by classification. Residential plan designations have the most vacant
land, industrial the most partially vacant, and commercial the most developed. The majority of
open space plan designations are in public or exempt classifications and are not available for
development.
Exhibit 2. Land by Classification and General Plan Designation, Jacksonville UGB, 2016
Residential
Commercial
Industrial
Open Space
0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
Developed Partially Vacant Vacant Public Undevelopable

Exhibit 3 and Exhibit 4 show land in all residential plan designations by development and
constraint status. Jacksonville has 1,372 tax lots in residential plan designations. About 44% of
total residential land (338 acres) is built, 23% (181 acres) is constrained, and 33% (255 acres) is
buildable. Eighty-one percent (45 acres) of its commercial land is improved, 15 percent (8 acres)
is constrained, and 5 percent (3 acres) is buildable. The majority (94 percent) of Jacksonvilles
industrial land is constrained with only 6% (less than 1 acre) buildable. Jacksonville has no
buildable land in open space designations.
Exhibit 3. Land by Plan Designation, Jacksonville UGB, 2016
Constrained Buildable/
Zone Tax Lots Total Acres Improved Acres Acres Suitable Acres
Residential Total 1,372 772.5 337.5 180.6 254.5
Hillside
Residential (HR) 262 394.7 94.3 127.1 173.5
Single Family
Residential (SFR) 727 226.5 157.5 27.3 41.7
Border
Residential (BR) 43 57.8 19.4 9.5 28.9
Planning Unit
Development
(PUD) 178 38.9 27.3 5.2 6.4
Rural Residential
(RR)
Multi-Family 8 10.1 1.5 5.4 3.1
Residential
(MFR) 154 44.4 37.4 6.1 0.9
Commercial Total 216 56.0 45.2 8.2 2.6
General
Commercial (GC) 61 23.2 15.6 6.2 1.4
Historic Core 155 32.8 29.6 2.1 1.1
Industrial Total 5 2.8 0.0 2.7 0.2
Artisan District
5 2.8 0.0 2.7 0.2
(AD)
Open Space Total 42 236.3 102.2 134.0 -
Special
Protection (SP) 42 236.3 102.2 134.0 -
Exhibit 4. Land by Development Status and General Plan Designation, Jacksonville UGB, 2016
Residential
Commercial
Industrial
Open
0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
Improved Constrained Buildable

Exhibit 5 shows buildable acres (e.g., acres in tax lots after constraints are deducted) for vacant
and partially vacant land by plan designation. The results show that Jacksonville has about 257
buildable acres. Of this, about 31% is in tax lots classified as vacant, and 69% is in tax lots
classified as partially vacant. Ninety-nine percent of all buildable land is in residential
designations with 67% (174 acres) in the Hillside Residential (HR) designation, 16% (42 acres) in
Single Family Residential (SFR), 11% (29 acres) in Border Residential (BR), and the remaining
4% in Planned Unit Development (PUD), Rural Residential (RR), and Multi-Family Residential
(MFR) designations. Overall, one quarter of all land in Jacksonville is buildable.
Exhibit 5. Buildable acres in vacant and partially vacant tax lots by Plan Designation, Jacksonville
UGB, 2016
Net
Net Partially Vacant Net Total
Zone Vacant Acres Acres Acres
Residential Total 176.5 78.0 254.5
Hillside Residential (HR) 119.4 54.1 173.5
Single Family
Residential (SFR) 23.6 18.1 41.7
Border Residential (BR) 25.5 3.4 28.9
Planning Unit
Development (PUD) 4.1 2.3 6.4
Rural Residential (RR) 3.1 0.0 3.1
Multi-Family Residential
(MFR) 0.8 0.1 0.9
Commercial Total 1.5 1.1 2.6
General Commercial 1.0 0.4 1.4
Historic Core (HC) 0.5 0.6 1.1
Industrial Zones 0.1 0.0 0.2
Artisan District (AD) 0.1 0.0 0.2
Open Space Zones 0.0 0.0 0.0
Special Protection (SP) 0.0 0.0 0.0
Exhibit 6 and Exhibit 7 show residential and commercial land in Jacksonville by development
status. Exhibit 8 and Exhibit 9 show vacant and partially vacant residential land by plan
designation.
Exhibit 6. Residential Land by Development Status, Jacksonville UGB, 2016
Exhibit 7. Commercial Land by Development Status, Jacksonville UGB, 2016
Exhibit 8. Buildable Land by Plan Designation, Jacksonville UGB, 2016
Exhibit 9. Buildable Land by Plan Designation with Constraints, Jacksonville UGB, 2016
3. Housing Needs Analysis
Introduction
Economists view housing as a bundle of services for which people are willing to pay: shelter
certainly, but also proximity to other attractions (job, shopping, recreation), amenities (type and
quality of fixtures and appliances, landscaping, views), prestige, and access to public services
(quality of schools). Because it is impossible to maximize all of these services and
simultaneously minimize costs, households must, and do, make tradeoffs. What they can get for
their money is influenced both by economic forces and government policy. Moreover, different
households will value what they can get differently. They will have different preferences, which
in turn are a function of many factors like income, age of household head, number of people
and children in the household, number of workers and job locations, number of automobiles,
and so on.
Thus, housing choices of individual households are influenced in complex ways by dozens of
factors; and the housing market in Jacksonville and in Jackson County is the result of the
individual decisions of tens of thousands of households. These points help to underscore the
complexity of projecting what types of housing will be built in Jacksonville between 2016 and
2036.
The complex nature of the housing market was demonstrated by the unprecedented boom and
bust during the past decade. This complexity does not eliminate the need for some type of
forecast of future housing demand and need, with the resulting implications for land demand
and consumption. Such forecasts are inherently uncertain. Their usefulness for public policy
often derives more from the explanation of their underlying assumptions about the dynamics of
markets and policies than from the specific estimates of future demand and need. Thus, we start
our housing analysis with a framework for thinking about housing and residential markets, and
how public policy affects those markets.
Goal 10 Requirements
Goal 10 addresses housing in Oregon and provides guidelines for local governments to follow
in developing their local comprehensive land use plans and implementing policies. At a
minimum, local housing policies must meet the requirements of Goal 10 (ORS 197.295 to
197.314, ORS 197.475 to 197.490, and OAR 600-008). Goal 10 requires incorporated cities to
complete an inventory of buildable residential lands3 and to encourage the availability of
adequate numbers of housing units in price and rent ranges commensurate with the financial
capabilities of its households.
3 The definition of buildable residential land from OAR 660-008 is presented in Chapter 2.
Goal 10 defines needed housing types as housing types determined to meet the need shown
for housing within an urban growth boundary at particular price ranges and rent levels. ORS
197.303 defines needed housing types:
(a) Housing that includes, but is not limited to, attached and detached single-family housing
and multiple family housing for both owner and renter occupancy;
(b) Government assisted housing;4
(c) Mobile home or manufactured dwelling parks as provided in ORS 197.475 to 197.490;
and
(d) Manufactured homes on individual lots planned and zoned for single-family residential
use that are in addition to lots within designated manufactured dwelling subdivisions.
DLCD provides guidance on conducting a housing needs analysis in the document Planning
for Residential Growth: A Workbook for Oregons Urban Areas,5 referred to as the Workbook.
The Workbook generally describes the steps in conducting a housing needs analysis:
1. Determine the number of new housing units needed in the next 20 years.
2. Identify relevant national, state, and local demographic trends that will affect the 20-
year projection of structure type mix.
3. Describe the demographic characteristics of the population, and household trends that
relate to demand for different types of housing.
4. Determine the types of housing that are likely to be affordable to the projected
households.
5. Determine the density ranges for all plan designations and the average net density for
all structure types.
6. Estimate the number of additional new units by structure type.
This chapter is generally organized around these steps. It begins with a review of historical and
recent development trends in Jacksonville.
4 Government assisted housing can be any housing type listed in ORS 197.303 (a), (c), or (d).
5Planning for Residential Growth: A Workbook for Oregons Urban Areas was prepared for the State by
ECONorthwest and Lane Council of Governments in June 1997.
Historical and Recent Development Trends
Analysis of historical development trends in Jacksonville provides insight into the functioning
of the local housing market. The mix of housing types and densities, in particular, are key
variables in forecasting future land need. The specific steps are described in Task 2 of the DLCD
Planning for Residential Lands Workbook as:
1. Determine the time period for which the data will be analyzed
2. Identify types of housing to address (all needed housing types)
3. Evaluate permit/subdivision data to calculate the actual mix, average actual gross
density, and average actual net density of all housing types
This HNA examines changes in Jacksonvilles housing market from January 2000 to February
2015. We selected this time period because it provides information about Jacksonvilles housing
market before and after the national housing market bubbles growth and deflation. In addition,
data about Jacksonvilles housing market during this period is readily available, from sources
such as the Census and the City and Countys building permit database.
The HNA presents information about residential development by housing type. There are
multiple ways that housing types can be grouped. For example, they can be grouped by:
1. Structure type (e.g., single-family detached, apartments, etc.)
2. Tenure (e.g., distinguishing unit type by owner or renter units)
3. Housing affordability (e.g., units affordable at given income levels)
4. Some combination of these categories
For the purposes of this study, we grouped housing types based on: (1) whether the structure is
stand-alone or attached to another structure and (2) the number of dwelling units in each
structure. The housing types used in this analysis are:
Single-family detached includes single-family detached units and manufactured
homes on lots and in mobile home parks.
Single-family attached is all structures with a common wall where each dwelling unit
occupies a separate lot, such as row houses or townhouses.
Multifamily is all attached structures (e.g., duplexes, tri-plexes, quad-plexes, and
structures with five or more units) other than single-family detached units,
manufactured units, or single-family attached units.
Trends in Housing Mix
This section provides an overview of changes in the mix of housing types in Jacksonville and
comparison geographies. These trends demonstrate the types of housing developed in
Jacksonville historically. Unless otherwise noted, this chapter uses data from the 2000 and 2010
Decennial Census, and 2013 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates.
This section shows the following trends in housing mix in Jacksonville:
Jacksonville has a less diverse housing stock than Jackson County and other cities in
the region. Eighty-four percent of Jacksonvilles housing stock is single-family detached
and 16% is multifamily. Jacksonville has no single-family attached housing (e.g.,
townhouses). In comparison, single-family attached or multifamily housing account for
22% of Jackson Countys housing stock, and 34% of Ashlands and Medfords housing
stock.
Jacksonvilles overall housing mix has remained largely stable since 2000.
Jacksonvilles housing stock grew by 32% (353 new units) between 2000 and 2013.
However, the mix of housing types remained largely stable, with the percentage of
single-family detached housing decreasing slightly from 86% 2000 to 84% of housing in
2013. The percentage of multifamily housing increased from 10% in 2000 to 16% in 2013.
The percentage of single-family homes decreased from 4% in 2000 to zero in 2013.
Single-family detached housing accounted for 68% of residential building permits
issued between 2000 and 2013. Seventeen percent of new units permitted were single-
family attached, and 6% were multifamily. Eight percent were ADU units.
The implication for the forecast of new housing in Jacksonville is that the Citys housing stock
continues to be predominantly single-family detached housing. The City has had modest
growth in single-family attached housing and multifamily housing.
About 84% of Exhibit 10. Housing Mix, 2009-13

Source: Census Bureau, 2013 ACS Table B25024
Jacksonvilles housing
stock is single-family
detached, and Jacksonville 84% 16%
Jacksonville has no
Ashland 65% 9% 25%
single-family attached
housing. Medford 66% 6% 28%
In comparison, 72% of
Oregons and 66% of Jackson County 78% 5% 17%
Medfords housing stock
single-family detached. Oregon 72% 4% 23%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Single-family Detached Single-family Attached Multifamily
The total number of Exhibit 11. Total Dwelling Units, Jacksonville, 2000 and 2009-13
Source: Census Bureau, 2000 Decennial Census, SF3 Table H030, and 2013 ACS Table
dwelling units in B25024.
Jacksonville increased by
353 from 2000 to 2013.
This amounted to a 32%
2000
increase over the 13-year
period, growing at an
average annual rate of
2.7%.
2009-13
The percentage of single-
family detached housing
remained relatively stable,
from 86% in 2000 to 84% 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600
of housing in the 2009-13 Total Dwelling Units
period.
Building Permits
Over the 2000 to 2013 Exhibit 12. Building Permits by Type of Unit, Jacksonville, 2000-
period, Jacksonville 2013
Source: City of Jacksonville.
issued permits for 342
60
dwelling units,
averaging about 24 50
units per year. 40
About 77% of dwellings
30
permitted were single-
family detached, 17% 20
were single-family 10
attached, and 7% were
manufactured. 0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3
200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 201 201 201 201
Single Family Detached Single Family Attached Multifamily
Trends in Tenure
Housing tenure describes whether a dwelling is owner- or renter-occupied. This section shows:
Seventy percent of households are owners and thirty percent are renters. In
comparison, 62% of households in both Jackson County and Oregon are owner-
occupied.
Homeownership is more common in Jacksonville than in Medford. Seventy percent of
households are homeowners in Jacksonville, as compared to 51% in Medford.
Almost all homeowners (97%) live in single-family detached housing and almost half
of renters (47%) live in multifamily housing in Jacksonville. This pattern is generally
consistent with homeownership patterns in other small cities, where single-family
detached housing accounts for most housing.
The implication for the forecast of new housing is that there may be opportunities to encourage
development of a wider variety of affordable attached housing types for homeownership, such
as townhouses. At the same time, it is important that the rental housing continue to be
developed in Jacksonville, to provide housing diverse housing opportunities for households
that cannot afford or choose not to become homeowners.
Jacksonville has higher Exhibit 13. Tenure, Occupied Units, Jacksonville, Jackson County, and
homeownership rates Oregon, 2009-13
Source: Census Bureau, 2009-13 ACS 5-Year Estimates, Table B24003
compared to Jackson
County and Oregon.
Seventy percent of Jacksonville 70% 30%
households in Jacksonville
live in owner-occupied
dwelling units, compared Jackson County 62% 38%
with 62% of households in
both Jackson County and
Oregon. Oregon 62% 38%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Owner occupied Renter Occupied
The overall Exhibit 14. Tenure, Occupied Units, Jacksonville, 2000 to 2009-13
Source: Census Bureau, 2000 Decennial Census SF1 Table H004, 2010 Decennial Census SF1
homeownership rate in Table H4, 2009-13 ACS Table B24003
Jacksonville decreased
from 77% in 2000 to 2000 77% 23%
70% in 2013.
2010 70% 30%
2009-13 70% 30%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Owner occupied Renter occupied
Almost all (97%) of Exhibit 15. Housing Units by Type and Tenure, Jacksonville, 2009-13
Source: Census Bureau, 2013 ACS 5-Year Estimates, Table B25032
owner-occupied housing
3%
units are single-family 100%
detached units and
almost half of renter- 80%
47%
occupied units are
multifamily. 60%
This pattern is consistent
with other large cities in the 97%
region. In Jackson County, 40%
43% of renter-occupied 53%
housing is multifamily. 20%
Across the County, 80% of
owner-occupied housing is 0%
single-family detached. Owner Renter
Single-family detached Multifamily
Vacancy Rates
The Census defines vacancy as: "Unoccupied housing units are considered vacant. Vacancy
status is determined by the terms under which the unit may be occupied, e.g., for rent, for sale,
or for seasonal use only." The 2010 Census identified vacant through an enumeration, separate
from (but related to) the survey of households. The Census determines vacancy status and other
characteristics of vacant units by enumerators obtaining information from property owners and
managers, neighbors, rental agents, and others.
In 2009-13 the Exhibit 16. Percent of Housing Units that are Vacant, 2009-13
Source: Census Bureau, 2009-13 ACS 5-Year Estimates, Table B25002
vacancy rate was 0% in
Jacksonville, lower
0.0% 8.5% 9.6%
than Jackson County Jacksonville Jackson County Oregon
and Oregon.
In 2010, the vacancy Exhibit 17. Percent of Housing Units that are Vacant, 2010
Source: Census Bureau, 2010, Summary File 1 Table QT-H1
rate in Jacksonville
was higher than
Jackson County and
11.0% 8.6% 9.3%
Jacksonville Jackson County Oregon
Oregon.
In 2000, the vacancy Exhibit 18. Percent of Housing Units that are Vacant, 2000
Source: Census Bureau, 2000, Summary File 1 Table QT-H1
rate in Jacksonville
similar to the vacancy
6.2% 5.6% 8.2%
rates in Jackson Jacksonville Jackson County Oregon
County and Oregon.
Manufactured Homes
Manufactured homes have provided a limited source of affordable housing in Jacksonville,
comprising almost 15% of total housing units. They provide a form of homeownership that can
be made available to low- and moderate-income households. Cities are required to plan for
manufactured homesboth on lots and in parks (ORS 197.475-492).
Generally, manufactured homes in parks are owned by the occupants who pay rent for the
space. Monthly housing costs are typically lower for a homeowner in a manufactured home
park for several reasons, including the fact that property taxes levied on the value of the land
are paid by the property owner rather than the manufactured homeowner. The value of the
manufactured home generally does not appreciate in the way a conventional home would,
however. Manufactured homeowners in parks are also subject to the mercy of the property
owner in terms of rent rates and increases. It is generally not within the means of a
manufactured homeowner to relocate another manufactured home to escape rent increases.
Living in a park is desirable to some because it can provide a more secure community with on-
site managers and amenities, such as laundry and recreation facilities.
Jacksonville had 135 mobile homes in 2000 and 219 mobile homes in 2013, an increase of 84
units. According to the American Community Survey data, 100% of the mobile homes in
Jacksonville were owner-occupied in 2013.
OAR 197.480(4) requires cities to inventory the mobile home or manufactured dwelling parks
sited in areas planned and zoned or generally used for commercial, industrial or high-density
residential development. Exhibit 19 presents the inventory of mobile and manufactured home
parks within Jacksonville in 2015.
Jacksonville has four Exhibit 19. Inventory of Mobile/Manufactured Home Parks,

manufactured home Jacksonville, 2015
Source: Oregon Manufactured Dwelling Park Directory
parks with a total of 199
spaces, of which 11 are Total Vacant
Name
vacant, a 5.5% vacancy Spaces Spaces
rate. Covered Wagon Mobile-RV Park 7 0
McKee Bridge Mobile Home Park 22 7
Royal Mobile Estates 155 4
Ryans Outpost Mobile Home Park 15 0
Step 1: Project the number of new housing units needed in
the next 20 years
Note to Reviewers: If Jacksonville chooses to adopt its housing needs analysis, we will
need to update the forecast period from 2016-2036 to a current 20-year planning period,
starting in the year of adoption.
Step 1 in the housing needs analysis is to project the number of new housing units needed
during the planning period. This section describes the key assumptions and presents an
estimate of new housing units needed in Jacksonville between 2016 and 2036. The key
assumptions are based on the best available data and may rely on safe harbor provisions, when
available.6 Trends that may affect these assumptions and Jacksonvilles housing need are
described in Step 2 of the housing needs analysis.
Population. A 20-year population forecast (in this instance, 2016 to 2036) is the
foundation for estimating needed new dwelling units. Exhibit 25 shows that the
Jacksonville UGB will grow from 2,985 people in 2016 to 4,369 people in 2036, adding
1,384 people over the 20-year period.
Persons in Group Quarters. Persons in group quarters do not consume standard
housing units: thus, any forecast of new people in group quarters is typically derived
from the population forecast for the purpose of estimating housing demand. According
to the 2010-2014 American Community Survey, Jacksonville has no population in group
quarters. For the 2016 to 2036 period, we assume that no new population will be in
group quarters.
Household Size. OAR 660-024 established a safe harbor assumption for average
household sizewhich is the figure from the most-recent decennial Census at the time
of the analysis. According to the 2009-13 American Community Survey, the average
household size in Jacksonville was 1.86 persons per household. Thus, for the 2016 to
2036 period, we assume an average household size of 1.86 persons per household.
Vacancy Rate. OAR 660-024 established a safe harbor assumption for average household
sizewhich is the figure from the most-recent decennial Census at the time of the
analysis. For the 2016 to 2036 period, we assume a vacancy rate of 0%, based on the
2010-2014 American Community Survey results.
Exhibit 20 shows the forecast of demand for new dwelling units in the Jacksonville UGB for the
2016 to 2036 period, based on the assumptions described above. Jacksonville will have demand
for 744 new dwelling units over the 20-year period, with an annual average of 37 dwelling
units.
6A safe harbor is an assumption that a city can use in a housing needs analysis that the State has said will satisfy the
requirements of Goal 14. OAR 660-024 defines a safe harbor as, an optional course of action that a local
government may use to satisfy a requirement of Goal 14. Use of a safe harbor prescribed in this division will satisfy
the requirement for which it is prescribed. A safe harbor is not the only way or necessarily the preferred way to
comply with a requirement and it is not intended to interpret the requirement for any purpose other than applying a
safe harbor within this division.
Exhibit 20. Forecast of demand for new dwelling units, Jacksonville
UGB, 2016 to 2036
New Dwelling
Units
Variable (2016-2036)
Change in persons 1,384
minus Change in persons in group quarters -
equals Persons in households 1,384
Average household size 1.9
New occupied DU 744
times Aggregate vacancy rate 0.0%
equals Vacant dwelling units -
Total new dwelling units (2016-2036) 744
Annual average of new dwelling units 37
Source: Calculations by ECONorthwest
Step 2: Identify relevant national, state, and local
demographic and economic trends and factors that may
affect the 20-year projection of structure type mix
Demographic trends are important to thoroughly understand the dynamics of the Jacksonville
housing market. Jacksonville exists in a regional economy; trends in the region impact the local
housing market. This chapter documents national, state, and regional demographic,
socioeconomic, and other trends relevant to Jacksonville.
Demographic trends provide a broader context for growth in a region; factors such as age,
income, migration and other trends show how communities have grown and shape future
growth. To provide context, we compare Jacksonville to Jackson County and the Oregon where
appropriate. Characteristics such as age and ethnicity are indicators of how population has
grown in the past and provide insight into factors that may affect future growth.
Demographic and socioeconomic factors affecting housing choice7

Analysts typically describe housing demand as the preferences for different housing types (i.e.,
single-family detached or apartment) and the ability to pay for that housing (the ability to
exercise those preferences in a housing market by purchasing or renting housing; in other
words, income or wealth).
Many demographic and socioeconomic variables affect housing choice. However, the literature
about housing markets find that age of the householder, size of the household, and income are
most strongly correlated with housing choice.
7 The research in this chapter is based on numerous articles and sources of information about housing, including:
Davis, Hibbits, & Midghal Research, Metro Residential Preference Survey, May 2014.
The American Planning Association, Investing in Place; Two generations view on the future of
communities. 2014
Access to Public Transportation a Top Criterion for Millennials When Deciding Where to Live, New Survey
Shows, Transportation for America.
Survey Says: Home Trends and Buyer Preferences, National Association of Home Builders International
Builders
The Case for Multi-family Housing. Urban Land Institute. 2003
E. Zietz. Multi-family Housing: A Review of Theory and Evidence. Journal of Real Estate Research, Volume 25,
Number 2. 2003.
C. Rombouts. Changing Demographics of Homebuyers and Renters. Multi-family Trends. Winter 2004.
J. McIlwain. Housing in America: The New Decade. Urban Land Institute. 2010.
D. Myers and S. Ryu. Aging Baby Boomers and the Generational Housing Bubble. Journal of the American
Planning Association. Winter 2008.
M. Riche. The Implications of Changing U.S. Demographics for Housing Choice and Location in Cities. The
Brookings Institution Center on Urban and Metropolitan Policy. March 2001.
L. Lachman and D. Brett. Generation Y: Americas New Housing Wave. Urban Land Institute. 2010.
Age of householder is the age of the person identified (in the Census) as the head of
household. Households make different housing choices at different stages of life. This
chapter discusses generational trends, such as housing preferences of Baby Boomers,
people born from about 1946 to 1964, and Millennials, people born from about 1980 to
2000.
Size of household is the number of people living in the household. Younger and older
people are more likely to live in single-person households. People in their middle years
are more likely to live in multiple person households (often with children).
Income is the household income. Income is probably the most important determinant of
housing choice. Income is strongly related to the type of housing a household chooses
(e.g., single-family detached, duplex, or a building with more than five units) and to
household tenure (e.g., rent or own).
An individuals housing needs change throughout life, with changes in income, family
composition, and age. The types of housing needed by a 20-year-old college student differ from
the needs of a 40-year-old parent with children, or an 80-year-old single adult. As Jacksonvilles
population ages, different types of housing will be needed to accommodate older residents. The
housing characteristics by age data presented later in this chapter reveal this cycle in action in
Jacksonville.
This chapter focuses on these factors, presenting data that suggests how changes to these factors
may affect housing need in Jacksonville over the next 20 years.
National trends8
This brief summary on national housing trends builds on previous work by ECONorthwest, the
Urban Land Institute (ULI) reports, and conclusions from The State of the Nations Housing, 2015
report from the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University. The Harvard report
summarizes the national housing outlook as follows:
The US housing recovery lost momentum in 2014 as homeownership rates continued to fall,
single-family construction remained near historic lows, and existing home sales cooled. In
contrast, the rental market remained a bright spot, fueled by strong growth in renter
households. With rents rising and incomes well below pre-recession levels, though, the number
of housing cost-burdened renters set another record, far surpassing public efforts to provide
affordable housing. And despite the rebound in much of the nation, a number of minority and
low-income neighborhoods remain severely distressed.
Several challenges to a strong domestic housing market remain. Demand for housing is closely
tied to jobs and incomes, which are taking longer to recover than in previous cycles. While
trending downward, the number of underwater homeowners, delinquent loans, and vacancies
8These trends are based on information from: (1) The Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard Universitys
publication The State of the Nations Housing 2013, (2) Urban Land Institute, 2011 Emerging Trends in Real
Estate, and (3) the U.S. Census.
remains high. The State of the Nations Housing report projects that it will take several years for
market conditions to return to normal and, until then, the housing recovery will likely unfold at
a moderate pace.
Post-recession recovery progresses slowly. Housing growth gradually gained
momentum since 2012, with residential construction continuing to increase into 2015.
However, growth in the housing market is relatively slow. For example, April 2015 was
the 32nd straight month that existing homes for sale held below a six-month supply, the
traditional measure of a balanced market. Increases in mortgage interest rates and
meager job growth contributed to the stall in the housing market. Continued economic
growth in 2015 has supported growth in the housing market.
Continued declines in homeownership. After 13 successive years of increases, the
national homeownership rate declined each year from 2005 to 2015, and in the first
quarter of 2015 registered at about 63.7 percent. The Urban Land Institute notes that
homeownership rates may increase as Millennials (people born between 1980 and 2000)
age and their income increases.
Growth in the rental market. While homeownership has steadily declined since the
burst of the housing bubble, the rental market has experienced a boom. With renter
household growth averaging 770,000 households annually since 2004, the 10-year
period from 2004 to 2014 was the strongest since the late 1980s. Accordingly, vacancy
rates have fallen (to 7.6 percent nationally) and rents have risen (at a rate of 3.2 percent
in 2014, two times the pace of inflation).
Housing affordability. In 2012, more than one-third of American households spent
more than 30% of income on housing. Low-income households face an especially dire
hurdle to afford housing. Among those earning less than $15,000, more than 80% paid
over 30% of their income and almost 70% of households paid more than half of their
income. For households earning $15,000 to $29,000, more than 60% were cost burdened,
with about 30% paying more than half of their income on housing. The Joint Center for
Housing Studies forecasts that the number of households paying more than half of
their income for housing is likely to increase between 2015-2025.
Long-term growth and housing demand. The Joint Center for Housing Studies
forecasts that demand for new homes could total as many as 13.2 million units
nationally between 2015 and 2025. Much of the demand will come from Baby Boomers,
Millennials,9 and immigrants. The Urban Land Institute projects continued demand for
multifamily housing development, at least over the next three years or so.
Changes in housing preference. Housing preference will be affected by changes in
demographics, most notably the aging of the Baby Boomers, housing demand from the
Millennials, and growth of foreign-born immigrants.
Baby Boomers. The housing market will be affected by continued aging of the Baby
Boomers, the oldest of whom were in their late 60s in 2015 and the youngest of
9Millennials are, broadly speaking, the children of Baby Boomers, born from the early 1980s through the early
2000s.
whom were in their early 50s in 2015. Baby Boomers housing choices will affect
housing preference and homeownership, with some boomers likely to stay in
their home as long as they are able and some preferring other housing products,
such as multifamily housing or age-restricted housing developments.
Millennials. As Millennials age over the next 20 years, they will be forming
households and families. In 2015, the oldest Millennials were in their mid-20s and
the youngest were in their mid-teens. By 2035, Millennials will be between 35 and
55 years old.
Millennials were in the early period of household formation at the beginning of
the 2007-2009 recession. Across the nation, household formation fell to around
600,000 to 800,000 in the 2007-2013 period, well below the average rate of growth
in previous decades. Despite sluggish growth recently, several demographic
factors indicate increases in housing growth to come. The Millennial generation is
the age group most likely to form the majority of new households. While low
incomes have kept current homeownership rates among young adults below their
potential, Millennials may represent pent-up demand that will release when the
economy fully recovers. As Millennials age, they may increase the number of
households in their 30s by 2.4 to 3.0 million through 2025.
Immigrants. Immigration and increased homeownership among minorities will
also play a key role in accelerating household growth over the next 10 years.
Current Population Survey estimates indicate the number of foreign-born
households rose by nearly 400,000 annually between 2001 and 2007, and
accounted for nearly 30 percent of overall household growth. Beginning in 2008,
the influx of immigrants was staunched by the effects of the Great Recession.
After a period of declines, however, the foreign born are again contributing to
household growth. Immigration increased from about 700,000 immigrants in 2011
to 996,000 in 2014. The largest immigrant group is Asians, while Hispanic
immigration, particularly from Mexico, has slowed in recent years. The Census
Bureau projects immigration to increase to about 1.2 to 1.4 million immigrants per
year between 2015 and 2035.
The growing diversity of American households will have a large impact on the
domestic housing markets. Over the coming decade, minorities will make up a
larger share of young households, and constitute an important source of demand
for both rental housing and small homes. This makes the growing gap in
homeownership rates between whites and blacks and whites and Hispanics
troubling. Since 2001, the difference in homeownership rates between whites and
blacks rose from 25.9 to 29.5 in 2013. Similarly the gap between white and
Hispanic homeownership rates increased since 2008, from below 26%, to over 27%
in 2013. This growing gap between racial and ethnic groups will hamper the
countrys homeownership rate, as minority households constitute a larger share
of the housing market.
Changes in housing characteristics. The U.S Census Bureaus Characteristics of New
Housing Report (2014) presents data that show trends in the characteristics of new
housing for the nation, state, and local areas. Several long-term trends in the
characteristics of housing are evident from the New Housing Report:10
Larger single-family units on smaller lots. Between 1990 and 2014 the median size of
new single-family dwellings increased 29% nationally from 1,905 sq. ft. to 2,453
sq. ft., and 24% in the western region from 1,985 sq. ft. to 2,453 sq. ft. Moreover,
the percentage of units fewer than 1,400 sq. ft. nationally decreased by almost half,
from 15% in 1999 to 8% in 2012. The percentage of units greater than 3,000 sq. ft.
increased from 17% in 1999 to 31% of new single-family homes completed in 2014.
In addition to larger homes, a move towards smaller lot sizes is seen nationally.
Between 1990 and 2013, the percentage of lots less than 7,000 sq. ft. increased from
26% of lots to 28% of lots.
Larger multifamily units. Between 1999 and 2014, the median size of new multiple
family dwelling units increased by 3% nationally and 1% in the western region.
The percentage of new multifamily units with more than 1,200 sq. ft. increased
from 28% in 1999 to 37% in 2014 nationally, and from 25% to 31% in the western
region.
More household amenities. Between 1990 and 2014, the percentage of single-family
units built with amenities such as central air conditioning, 2 or more car garages,
or 2 or more baths all increased. A similar trend in increased amenities is seen in
multifamily units.
State Trends
Oregons 2011-2015 Consolidated Plan includes a detailed housing needs analysis as well as
strategies for addressing housing needs statewide.11 The plan concludes, Oregons changing
population demographics are having a significant impact on its housing market. It identified
the following population and demographic trends that influence housing need statewide.
Oregon is:
Facing housing affordability decreases due to higher unemployment and lower wages,
as compared to the nation.
Since 2005, is experiencing higher foreclosure rates compared with the previous two
decades.
Losing federal subsidies on about 8% of federally subsidized Section 8 housing units.
Losing housing value throughout the State.
Losing manufactured housing parks, with a 25% decrease in the number of
manufactured home parks between 2003 and 2010.
10 https://www.census.gov/construction/chars/highlights.html
11 http://www.ohcs.oregon.gov/OHCS/HRS_Consolidated_Plan_5yearplan.shtml
Increasingly older, more diverse, and has less affluent households.12
While the 2016-2020 Consolidated Plan is still in development, the Oregon Office of Housing and
Community Services has identified a short list of priority needs for the upcoming plan. Those
priorities include:
Affordable Housing
Accessible Housing
Permanent Housing with Support Services
Rapid Rehousing with Support Services
Rental Assistance
Rehabilitation and Preservation of Units
Economic Opportunity for People and Families Living in Poverty
Improved Housing Stock
Emergency Shelter Beds and Homeless Services
12State of Oregon Consolidated Plan 2011 to 2015.

http://www.oregon.gov/ohcs/hd/hrs/consplan/2011_2015_consolidated_plan.pdf
Local Demographic Trends
Regional demographic trends largely follow the statewide trends discussed above, but provide
additional insight into how demographic trends might affect housing in Jacksonville.
Demographic trends that might affect the key assumptions used in the baseline analysis of
housing need are: (1) the aging population, (2) changes in household size and composition, and
(3) increases in diversity.
An individuals housing needs change throughout life, with changes in income, family
composition, and age. The types of housing needed by a 20-year-old college student differ from
the needs of a 40-year-old parent with children, or an 80-year-old single adult. As Jacksonvilles
population ages, different types of housing will be needed to accommodate older residents. The
housing characteristics by age data below reveal this cycle in action in Jacksonville.
Housing needs and Exhibit 21. Effect of demographic changes on housing need
Source: ECONorthwest, adapted from Clark, Willam A.V. and Frans M. Dieleman. 1996.
preferences change in Households and Housing. New Brunswick, NJ: Center for Urban Policy Research.
predictable ways over
time, with changes in
marital status and size
of family. Families of
different sizes need
different types of housing.
GROWING POPULATION
Jacksonvilles population grew by 50% between 1990 and 2014, adding nearly 950 new
residents. Over this period, Jacksonvilles population grew at an average annual growth rate of
1.7%, faster than Jackson County and Oregon.
Jacksonvilles population growth will drive future demand for housing in Jacksonville over
the planning period.
Since 1990, Jacksons Exhibit 22. Population, Jacksonville, 1990 - 2014

Source: PSU Population Research Center, US Decennial Census
population has
increased by 50%.
1990 1,896
From 1990 to 2014,
Jacksonvilles population
increased by 944.
2014 2,840
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000

Population
From 1990 to 2014, Exhibit 23. Population Growth, 1990 - 2014

Source: US Decennial Census 1990, 2000, 2010. PSU Population Research Center Certified
Jacksonvilles Population Estimates 2014.
population grew, by 994
people, accounting for 50% 42% 39%
1.5% of population Jacksonville Jackson County Oregon
growth in Jackson
County.
Jacksonvilles Exhibit 24. Annual Average Rate of Growth, 1990 - 2014
Source: US Decennial Census 1990, 2000, 2010. PSU Population Research Center Certified
population grew faster Population Estimates 2014.
than the county and
state. 1.7% 1.5% 1.4%
Jacksonvilles official Exhibit 25. Forecast of Population Growth, Jacksonville, 2015 - 2036
Source: Oregon Population Forecast Program, Jackson County Forecast, PSU Population Research
forecast is growth from Center 2015.
2,927 people in 2015 to
4,316 people in 2035. Jacksonville
Extrapolating that forecast UGB
to the 2016-2036 period 2015 2,927
shows that Jacksonville will 2016 2,985
grow by 1,384 people over 2035 4,316
the 20-year period. 2036 4,369
Change 2016 to 2036
Population 1,384
Percent change 46%
AAGR 1.92%
AGING POPULATION
This section shows two key characteristics of Jacksonvilles population, with implications for
future housing demand in Jacksonville:
Jacksonvilles population is older than the state, on average. Seventy percent of
Jacksonville residents are over 40 years old, 40% of which are over 60. Comparatively,
52% of Oregon residents are over 40, and only 25% of residents are over 60 years old.
Jacksonvilles population is growing older, with the aging of the Baby Boomers.
Jacksonvilles median age increased from 48.2 in 2000 to 60.2 years old in 2013. The
forecast for population growth in Jackson County shows that people over 60 years old
will account for nearly three-quarters of population growth in the County between 2015-
2035 (more than 32,000 people).
If Jacksonvilles population continues to age, consistent with regional and national

trends, demand for housing for retirees will grow over the planning period, as the Baby
Boomers continue to age and retire. National surveys show that, in general, most retirees
prefer to age in place by continuing to live in their current home and community as long
as possible.13
Growth in the number of seniors will result in demand for housing types specific to seniors,
such as assisted living facilities or age-restricted developments. These households will make a
variety of housing choices, including: remaining in their homes as long as they are able,
downsizing to smaller single-family homes (detached and attached) or multifamily units, or
moving into group housing (such as assisted living facilities or nursing homes), as their health
fails. The challenges that aging seniors face in continuing to live in their community include:
changes in healthcare needs, loss of mobility, the difficulty of home maintenance, financial
concerns, and increases in property taxes.14
From 2000 to 2013 Exhibit 26. Median Age, years, 2000 - 2013
Source: US Census Bureau, 2009-13 ACS Table B01002, 2010 Decennial Census Table P013.
Jacksonvilles median
age increased from
48.2 to 60.2 years.
2000 48.2 39.2
Jacksonville Jackson County
36.3
Oregon
2013 60.2 42.5

Jacksonville Jackson County
38.7
Oregon
A survey conducted by the AARP indicates that 90% of people 50 years and older want to stay in their current
13
home and community as they age. See http://www.aarp.org/research.

14 Aging in Place: A toolkit for Local Governments by M. Scott Ball.
In 2010, 83% of Exhibit 27. Population Distribution by Age, 2010
Source: US Census Bureau, 2010 Decennial Census Table P12.
Jacksonville residents
were aged between 20 40%
60 Years and Over 25%
and 59. 20%
30%
40 to 59 28%
28%
Age
13%
20 to 39 23%
27%
17%
Under 20 24%
25%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Population
Oregons largest age Exhibit 28. Population Distribution by Generation and Age, Oregon,
groups are the 2015
Source: Oregon Office of Economic Analysis, Population, Demographics, and Generations by
Millennials and the Josh Lehner, February 5, 2015. http://oregoneconomicanalysis.com/2015/02/05/population-
Baby Boomers. demographics-and-generations/
By 2035, Millennials will
be between 35 and 54
years old. Baby Boomers
will be 71 to 89 years old.
By 2035, residents Exhibit 29. Population Growth by Age Group, Jackson County, 2015 -
older than sixty are 2035
Source: Oregon Office of Economic Analysis, Long-term County Forecast, 2013 Release.
expected make up a
larger share of the
population than before 60+
2015.
The share of residents
aged 60 years and older
40 to 59
will account for 36% of
Jackson Countys
Age
population, compared to
28% in 2015. 20 to 39
Under 20
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%

2015 2035
Over time, older age Exhibit 30. Fastest-growing Age Groups, Jackson County, 2015 -
groups are expected to 2035
grow quickly. Source: Portland State University Population Research Center, June 2015
From to 2015 to 2035,
Jackson Countys fastest 60+ Year-Olds 40-59 Year-Olds 20-39 Year-Olds
growing age group will be 54% Increase 18% Increase 6% Increase
those aged over 60 years, 32,184 More People 9,794 More People 3,124 More People
expected to grow at 54%
and accounting for nearly
three-quarters of
population growth over the
20-year period.
HOUSEHOLD SIZE AND COMPOSITION
Jacksonvilles household size and composition show that households in Jacksonville are
somewhat different from the County and Oregon. Jacksonvilles households are smaller and a
smaller percentage of households are family households with children. One reason for this
difference may be the smaller share of Hispanic and Latino population in Jacksonville relative
to Jackson County and Oregon.
Jacksonvilles average Exhibit 31. Average Household Size, 2009-13

Source: US Census Bureau, 2009-13 ACS Table B25010.
household size is less
than Jackson County
and Oregon. 1.9 Persons 2.42 Persons 2.49 Persons
Jacksonville has a Exhibit 32. Household Composition, 2013

Source: 2009-13 ACS Table DP02
larger share of
nonfamily households
and households without 100%
children than Jackson 36% 35% 40%
Percent of Households
County and Oregon. Only 80%

17% of Jacksonville
households are 60%
households with children. 36% 39%
40% 44%
20% 27% 26%

17%
0%
Oregon Jackson County Jacksonville
Nonfamily households
Family households without children
Households with children
INCOME OF JACKSONVILLE RESIDENTS
Income is one of the key determinants in housing choice and households ability to afford
housing. Income for people living in Jacksonville is below the average in Jackson County and
considerably below State average.
In the 2009-13 period, Exhibit 33. Median Household Income, 2009-13

Source: US Census Bureau, 2013 ACS Table B25119
household income was
below that of the County $40,725 $44,005 $50,229
and State.
In the 2009-13 period, Exhibit 34. Median Family Income, 2009-13

family income was
above the County and $53,630 $53,254 $61,609
below the State.
After adjusting for Exhibit 35. Median Household Income, Oregon, 1999 to 2009-13,
inflation, Jacksonvilles Adjusted for Inflation
Source: US Census Bureau, 2000 Decennial Census, Table HCT012, 2013 ACS Table B25119
median household
income decreased by Jacksonville
29% from 1999 to
2013, from $57,448 to Ashland
$40,725 per year.
Medford
Jackson County
Oregon
$0 $20,000 $40,000 $60,000

2000 2009-13
Jacksonville has a Exhibit 36. Educational Attainment, 2009-13

larger share of residents
with a Bachelors, Bachelor's, Graduate,
45%
25%
Graduate, or or Professional degree
30%
Professional degree
(45%) than Jackson Some College or
33%
37%
County (25%) and Associate's Degree
35%
Oregon (30%).
22%
High School Diploma
38%
or Less
35%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Percent of Population Age 25 and Over
COMMUTING TRENDS
Of the more than 775 people who work in Jacksonville, over 70% of workers commute into
Jacksonville from other areas, most notably Medford, Central Point, and Ashland. 826 residents
of Jacksonville commute out of Jacksonville for work, most frequently to Medford, Ashland,
and Grants Pass.
Jacksonville is part of Exhibit 37. Commuting Flows, Jacksonville, 2013

Source: US Census Bureau, Census On the Map.
an interconnected
regional economy.
Fewer people both live and
work in Jacksonville than
commute into or out of the
city.
About 9% of all people Exhibit 38. Places Where Jacksonville Workers Lived, 2013
who work in
Jacksonville also live in
Jacksonville.
9% 26% 8% 3%
Jacksonville Medford Central Point Ashland
About 7% of residents Exhibit 39. Places Where Jacksonville Residents were Employed,
who live in Jacksonville 2013
also work in
Jacksonville. Forty five 7% 45% 7% 3%
percent of Jacksonville Jacksonville Medford Ashland Grants Pass
residents commute to
Medford.
Most Jacksonville Exhibit 40. Commute Time by Place of Residence, 2009-13
residents have a
commute time that 60 or more
Commute time (minutes)

takes less than 30
minutes. 45 to 59
About 81% of Jacksonville
residents have commute 30 to 44
times less than 30
minutes, and only 3% 15 to 29
commute for longer than
one hour. Less than 15
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

Percent of Population
Jacksonville Jackson Couny Oregon
Step 3: Describe the demographic characteristics of the
population and, if possible, housing trends that relate to
demand for different types of housing
The purpose of the analysis thus far has been to provide background on the kinds of factors that
influence housing choice, and in doing so, to convey why the number and interrelationships
among those factors ensure that generalizations about housing choice are difficult to make and
prone to inaccuracies.
There is no question that age affects housing type and tenure. Mobility is substantially higher
for people aged 20 to 34. People in this age group will also have, on average, less income than
people who are older. They are less likely to have children. All of these factors mean that
younger households are much more likely to be renters, and renters are more likely to be in
multifamily housing.
The data illustrate what more detailed research has shown and what most people understand
intuitively: life cycle and housing choice interact in ways that are predictable in the aggregate;
age of the household head is correlated with household size and income; household size and
age of household head affect housing preferences; income affects the ability of a household to
afford a preferred housing type. The connection between socioeconomic and demographic
factors and housing choice is often described informally by giving names to households with
certain combinations of characteristics: the "traditional family," the "never-marrieds," the
"dinks" (dual-income, no kids), the "empty nesters."15 Thus, simply looking at the long wave of
demographic trends can provide good information for estimating future housing demand.
One is ultimately left with the need to make a qualitative assessment of the future housing
market. The following is a discussion of how demographic and housing trends are likely to
affect housing in Jacksonville over the next 20 years:
Growth in housing will be driven by growth in population. Between 2000 and 2014
Jacksonvilles population (within its city limits) grew by 605 people (27%). The
population in the Jacksonville UGB is expected to grow by 1,384 people (16%) between
2016 and 2036.
On average, future housing will look a lot like past housing. That is the assumption
that underlies any trend forecast, and one that allows some quantification of the
composition of demand for new housing.
Jacksonville will have demand for some smaller units and more diverse housing
types. The demographic trends suggest that there will be an increase in demand for
more affordable housing, such as smaller average house and lot sizes for single-family
housing.
15 See Planning for Residential Growth: A Workbook for Oregon's Urban Areas (June 1997).
Key demographic and economic trends that will affect Jacksonvilles future housing
needs are: (1) the aging of the Baby Boomers, (2) aging of the Millennials, (3) continued
growth in Hispanic and Latino population, and (4) accommodating student housing.
The Baby Boomers population is continuing to age. By 2035, people 60 years and
older will account for 22% of the population in Jackson County (up from 21% in
2015). The changes that affect Jacksonvilles housing demand as the population
ages are that household sizes decrease and homeownership rates decrease.
Millennials will continue to age. By 2035, Millennials will be roughly between 35
and 55 years old. As they age, generally speaking, their household sizes will
increase and homeownership rates will peak by about age 55. Between 2016 and
2036, Millennials will be a key driver in demand for housing for families with
children. Ensuring that there are opportunities for developing housing that is
affordable to Millennials will be important for workforce development in
Jacksonville, with the communitys emphasis on entrepreneurship and growing
local companies. Start-up companies often have younger employees.
Hispanic and Latino population will continue to grow in Southern Oregon. The U.S.
Census projects that by about 2040, Hispanic and Latino populations will
account for one-quarter of the nations population. The share of Hispanic and
Latino populations in the western U.S. is likely to be higher. There is little to no
Hispanic and Latino residents of Jacksonville. However, Hispanic and Latino
population accounted for 11% of Jackson Countys population in the 2009-13
period.16 In addition, Hispanic and Latino populations are generally younger
than the U.S. average, with many Hispanic and Latino people belonging to the
Millennial generation.
Hispanic and Latino population growth will be an important driver in growth of
housing demand, both for owner and renter-occupied housing. Growth in
Hispanic and Latino populations will drive demand for housing for families with
children within Jackson County. Given the lower median income for Hispanic
and Latino households, especially first generation immigrants, growth in this
group will also drive demand for affordable housing, both for ownership and
renting. It is reasonable to assume that some Hispanic and Latino households
will locate in Jacksonville over the 20-year planning period. 17
16 2009-13 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates. Table B03002 Hispanic or Latino Origin by Race.
17The following articles describe housing preferences and household income trends for Hispanic and Latino families,
including differences in income levels for first, second, and third generation households. In short, Hispanic and
Latino households have lower median income than the national averages. First and second generation Hispanic and
Latino households have median incomes below the average for all Hispanic and Latino households. Hispanic and
Latino households have a strong preference for homeownership but availability of mortgages and availability of
affordable housing are key barriers to homeownership for this group.
Pew Research Center. Second-Generation Americans: A Portrait of the Adult Children of Immigrants, February 7, 2012.
National Association of Hispanic Real Estate Professionals. 2014 State of Hispanic Homeownership Report, 2014.
In summary, an aging population, increasing housing costs, housing affordability
concerns for Millennials and the Hispanic and Latino populations, and other variables
are factors that support the conclusion of need for smaller and less expensive units and
a broader array of housing choices.
No amount of analysis is likely to make the distant future completely certain: the
purpose of the housing forecasting in this study is to get an approximate idea about
the future so policy choices can be made today. Economic forecasters regard any
economic forecast more than three (or at most five) years out as highly speculative. At
one year, one is protected from being disastrously wrong by the sheer inertia of the
economic machine. But a variety of factors or events could cause growth forecasts to be
substantially different.
Step 4: Determine the types of housing that are likely to be
affordable to the projected households based on household
income
This section describes changes in sales prices, rents, and housing affordability in Jacksonville
and across the region since 2000.
Changes in housing costs

Jacksonvilles housing sales prices are relatively high in the region, with a median sales price in
$275,000 in 2015, compared to those in Jackson County and other cities in the region. In general,
Jacksonvilles housing prices changed with changes in housing price throughout the region,
generally staying above housing prices in Medford and below housing prices in Ashland.
Jacksonvilles median Exhibit 41. Median Home Sale Price, 2015

Source: Rogue Valley Association of Realtors
home sales price was
above the average in
Jackson County and in $275K $251K $202K $358K $225K
Jacksonville East Medford SW Medford Ashland Jackson County
Medford. However,
home sales price of
$275,000 was below that
of Ashland ($358,000)
Jacksonvilles median Exhibit 42. Median Sales Price, 2015
home sale price was $400,000
higher than most
comparable cities in the $300,000
area.
$200,000
$100,000
$0
Southwest Jackson County East Medford Jacksonville Ashland
Medford
Median home sales Exhibit 43. Median Sales Price, 2000-2015
prices in Jacksonville $500,000
and across the region
peaked between 2007
$400,000
and 2008, and
decreased with the
national housing $300,000
market recession.
Median sales prices in
$200,000
Jacksonville were higher
than other cities in the
region pre-recession. $100,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Ashland Jackson County Jacksonville Southwest Medford East Medford
Jacksonvilles median Exhibit 44. Median List Price per Square Foot, February 2015
Source: Zillow
home list price per
square foot of built $250
$213
$228
space was higher than
$200
the State, County, and $158
most cities in the $137 $142 $146
$150
region, but lower than
that of Ashland. $100
In 2014, Jacksonville
median home sale price $50
per square foot was $213.
$0
Medford Grants Pass Jackson Oregon Jacksonville Ashland
County
Housing costs have Exhibit 45. Ratio of Housing Value to Income (Median to Median),
increased faster than 2000 to 2009-1318
Source: US Census Bureau, 2000 Decennial Census, Tables HCT012 and H085, and 2013
income since 2000. ACS, Tables B19013 and B25077
The median value of a
house in Jacksonville was
2000 4.27 3.64 3.57
4.27 times the median Jacksonville Jackson County Oregon
household income in 2000
7.76 5.12 4.74
and 7.76 by the 2009-13 2009-13 Jacksonville Jackson County
period. The change in Oregon
housing value compared
to income was a larger in
Jacksonville than in the
County or State.
18This ratio compared the median value of housing in Jacksonville to the median household income. Inflation-
adjusted median owner values in Jacksonville increased from $244,982 in 2000 to $316,200 in 2009-13. Over the same
period, median income decreased from $57,378 to $40,725.
Rental Costs
Rent costs, both median contract rent and gross rent, are significantly higher in Jacksonville,
compared to Medford, Jackson County, and Oregon.
Median contract rent in Exhibit 46. Median Contract Rent, 2009-13

Jacksonville is about
$963. Jacksonvilles $963 $739 $745 $749
median contract rent is Jacksonville Medford Jackson County Oregon
over $200 higher than
that of Medford, the
County, and the State.
Almost 50% percent of Exhibit 47. Median Gross Rent, 2013
Jacksonville renters pay
$1,250 or more in gross
rent. In comparison, fewer No cash rent
than 20% of Medford and $1250 or more
Jackson County renters
2009-2013 Gross Rent
pay $1,250 or more. $1000 to $1249
$800 to $999
$600 to $799
$400 to $599
Less than $400
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Percent of renter-occupied housing units
Jacksonville Medford Jackson County
Housing Affordability
A typical standard used to determine housing affordability is that a household should pay no
more than a certain percentage of household income for housing, including payments and
interest or rent, utilities, and insurance. HUD guidelines indicate that households paying more
than 30% of their income on housing experience cost burden, and households paying more
than 50% of their income on housing experience severe cost burden. Using cost burden as an
indicator is consistent with the Goal 10 requirement to provide housing that is affordable to all
households in a community.
Almost half (47%) of Jacksonvilles households are cost burdened. Sixty three percent of renter
households are cost burdened, compared to 40% of homeowners. Cost burden rates in
Jacksonville are slightly higher than Jackson County (45% of households) and Oregon (40% of
households).
Cost Burden
The percentage of cost Exhibit 48. Housing Cost Burden, Jacksonville, 2000-2013
Source: US Census Bureau, 2000 Decennial Census Tables H069 and H094, 2013 ACS Tables
burdened households in B25091 and B25070.
Jacksonville increased
from 30% to 47% from
2000 to 2013.
Almost half of Jacksonville 2000 30%
residents spend more than
30% of their income on
rent, a mortgage, or other
housing costs each week.
2013 47%
0% 20% 40% 60%
Cost burden varies by tenure, with renters cost burdened more frequently than homeowners.
One reason for higher cost burden rates among renters is that renters are more likely to have
lower incomes, on average, compared to homeowners. Renters generally have less income
available to spent on housing than homeowners.
In 2013, about 40% of Exhibit 49. Housing Cost Burden by Tenure, Jacksonville, 2009-13
Source: US Census Bureau, 2013 ACS Tables B25091 and B25070.
owners were cost
burdened while over Owners 40% 60%
60% of renters were
cost burdened.
Renters 63% 37%
Total 47% 53%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Cost Burdened Not Cost Burdened
Jacksonvilles Exhibit 50. Housing Cost Burden, 2009-13

Source: US Census Bureau, 2009-13 ACS Tables B25091 and B25070.
percentage of cost- Note: This chart uses 5-year ACS data, rather than 1-year data used elsewhere.
burdened homes is
100%
higher than Jackson
County and Oregon.
80%
60% 55% 53%
60%
40%
20% 40% 45% 47%
0%
Oregon Jackson County Jacksonville
Cost burdened Not cost burdened
While cost burden is a common measure of housing affordability, it does have some limitations.
Two important limitations are:
A household is defined as cost burdened if the housing costs exceed 30% of their
income, regardless of actual income. The remaining 70% of income is expected to be
spent on non-discretionary expenses, such as food or medical care, and on discretionary
expenses. Households with higher income may be able to pay more than 30% of their
income on housing without impacting the households ability to pay for necessary non-
discretionary expenses.
Cost burden compares income to housing costs and does not account for accumulated
wealth. As a result, the estimate of how much a household can afford to pay for housing
does not include the impact of accumulated wealth on a households ability to pay for
housing. For example, a household with retired people may have relatively low income
but may have accumulated assets (such as profits from selling another house) that allow
them to purchase a house that would be considered unaffordable to them based on the
cost burden indicator.
Cost burden is only one indicator of housing affordability. Another way of exploring the issue
of financial need is to review housing affordability at varying levels of household income.
Fair Market Rent19 for a Exhibit 51. HUD Fair Market Rent (FMR) by Unit Type, Jackson
2-bedroom apartment County, 2015
Source: U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development
in Jackson County is
$844. $617 $624 $844 $1,244 $1,402
Studio 1-Bedroom 2-Bedroom 3-Bedroom 4-Bedroom
A household must earn Exhibit 52. Affordable Housing Wage, Jackson County, 2015
Source: U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development; Oregon Bureau of Labor and
at least $16.23 per Industries
hour to afford a two-
bedroom unit in $16.23/hour
Affordable Housing Wage for two-bedroom Unit in Jackson County
Jackson County.
Fair Market Rent is determined by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Services (HUD). It is the 40th
19
percentile of gross rents for typical, non-substandard rental units occupied by recent movers in a local housing
market.
One way to evaluate housing affordability is to consider the types of housing affordable at
different levels of income. The median family income (MFI)20 in the Jackson County was $55,900
in 2015.
More than one-quarter Exhibit 53. Financially Attainable Housing, by Median Family Income
of Jacksonville (MFI) for Jacksonville, 2015
Source: U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development
households have US Census Bureau, 2009-2013 ACS Table B19001
income of less than % of
$27,950 and cannot 30%- 80%-
Jackson Co. <30% 50%-80% >120%
afford a two-bedroom MFI 50% 120%
apartment at Jackson Annual $16,770- $27,950- $44,720-
Income
<$16,770 >$67,080
$27,950 $44,720 $67,080
Countys Fair Market Monthly
Rent (FMR) of $844. Affordable $419- $699- $1,118-
Given that rent is on <$419 >$1,677
Housing $699 $1,118 $1,677
average higher in Cost
Jacksonville than Jackson Percent of
Jacksonville
County, the rent on a two- House-
7% 19% 24% 21% 29%
bedroom apartment may holds
be above the Countys Fair Attainable
None Mfg. in Single-family All housing All
Market Rent estimate. parks attached; types; housing
Owner
condominium lower types;
Housing
s; duplexes; values higher
Types
mfg. on lots prices
Apartments; Apartment Single-family All housing All
new and Mfg. in attached; types; housing
used parks detached; lower types;
Attainable
government duplexes mfg. on lots; values higher
Renter
assisted apartments prices
Housing
housing
Types
Primarily Primarily Primarily Primarily Primarily
Used Used Used New New
Housing Housing Housing Housing Housing
20 HUD determines the median family income (MFI) in each county or urban areas of the nation.
The following table compares the income of households in Jacksonville with housing available
and affordable in each income range, based on Census data.
Jacksonville currently Exhibit 54. Rough Estimate of Housing Affordability, Jacksonville,

has a deficit of housing 2009-13
Source: US Census Bureau, 2009-13 ACS Tables 19001, 25075, 25063
affordable to
households earning Annual $25K- $50K- $75K- 30%-
<$25K >$100k
between $25,000 and Income $50K $75K $100K 50%
$75,000 per year. The HH in 222 680 255 76 240 $22,170-
deficit of housing for Jacksonville 15% 46% 17% 5% 16% $36,950
households earning Est. of
$25,000 to $75,000 Number of
results in these Owner 206 14 80 86 641 11%
Units in
households living in Jacksonville
housing that is more Est. of Mfg. in
expensive than they can Number of parks
afford, consistent with the Renter 38 202 131 52 24
Units in
data about renter cost Jacksonville
burden in Jacksonville. Does No Yes
Jacksonville Yes No Yes
Deficit: Surplus:
Have Surplus: Deficit: Surplus:
Enough 465 425
22 units 44 units 62 units
Units? units units
Summary of the Factors Affecting Jacksonvilles Housing
Needs
The purpose of the analysis thus far has been to provide background on the kinds of factors that
influence housing choice, and in doing so, to convey why the number and interrelationships
among those factors ensure that generalizations about housing choice are difficult to make and
prone to inaccuracies.
There is no question that age affects housing type and tenure. Mobility is substantially higher
for people aged 20 to 34. People in this age group will also have, on average, less income than
people who are older. They are less likely to have children. All of these factors mean that
younger households are much more likely to be renters, and renters are more likely to be in
multifamily housing.
The data illustrate what more detailed research has shown and what most people understand
intuitively: life cycle and housing choice interact in ways that are predictable in the aggregate;
age of the household head is correlated with household size and income; household size and
age of household head affect housing preferences; income affects the ability of a household to
afford a preferred housing type. The connection between socioeconomic and demographic
factors and housing choice is often described informally by giving names to households with
certain combinations of characteristics: the "traditional family," the "never marrieds," the "dinks"
(dual-income, no kids), the "empty nesters."21 Thus, simply looking at the long wave of
demographic trends can provide good information for estimating future housing demand.
Thus, one is ultimately left with the need to make a qualitative assessment of the future housing
market. The following is a discussion of how demographic and housing trends are likely to
affect housing in Jacksonville over the next 20 years:
Growth in housing will be driven by growth in population. Between 2000 and 2014
Jacksonvilles population (within its city limits) grew by more than 600 people (27%).
The population in Jackson County is expected to grow by 44,564 people (21%) between
2015 and 2035.
On average, future housing will look a lot like past housing. That is the assumption
that underlies any trend forecast, and one that allows some quantification of the
composition of demand for new housing.
Jacksonville will have demand for additional smaller units and more diverse
housing types. The demographic trends suggest that there will be an increase in
demand for more affordable housing, such as smaller average house and lot sizes for
single-family housing.
Key demographic and economic trends that will affect Jacksonvilles future housing
needs are: (1) the aging of the Baby Boomers, (2) aging of the Millennials, and (3)
growth in Hispanic and Latino population.
21 See Planning for Residential Growth: A Workbook for Oregon's Urban Areas (June 1997).
In short, an aging population, increasing housing costs (), housing affordability
concerns for Millennials and the Hispanic and Latino populations, and other variables
are factors that support the conclusion of need for a smaller and less expensive units
and a broader array of housing choices.
Step 5: Determine the needed housing mix and density

ranges for each plan designation and the average needed
net density for all structure types
Step 6: Estimate the number of additional needed units by
structure type
Note to Reviewers: The Housing Needs Analysis is currently uncompleted because the
densities allowed in Jacksonvilles several residential zones where the majority of vacant
land is (Hillside Residential and Border Residential) are below the densities typical for
residential development in urban areas. This will be the subject of discussion at the
August City Council meeting.
4. Economic Opportunities Analysis
Introduction
This report presents an Economic Opportunities Analysis (EOA) for the City of Jacksonville
consistent with the requirements of statewide planning Goal 9 and the Goal 9 administrative
rule (OAR 660-009). Goal 9 describes the EOA as an analysis of the community's economic
patterns, potentialities, strengths, and deficiencies as they relate to state and national trends
and states that a principal determinant in planning for major industrial22 and commercial
developments should be the comparative advantage of the region within which the
developments would be located.
Goal 9 requires cities to state objectives for economic development (OAR 660-009-0020(1)(a))
and to identify the characteristics of sites needed to accommodate industrial and other
employment uses to implement the economic development objectives (OAR 660-009-0025(1))
over the 20-year planning period. This approach could be characterized as a site-based approach
that projects land need based on the forecast for employment growth, the Citys economic
development objectives and the specific needs of target industries.
This chapter provides Jacksonville with a factual basis to support future planning efforts related
to employment and options for addressing unmet employment needs in Jacksonville. This
chapter focuses on three broad issues: (1) the factors affecting economic development in
Jacksonville, (2) Jacksonvilles competitive advantages for economic development, and (3)
potential employment growth in Jacksonville.
Framework for an economic opportunities analysis

The content of this report is designed to meet the requirements of Oregon Statewide Planning
Goal 9 and the administrative rule that implements Goal 9 (OAR 660-009). The analysis in this
report is designed to conform to the requirements for an Economic Opportunities Analysis in
OAR 660-009 as amended.
1. Economic Opportunities Analysis (OAR 660-009-0015). The Economic Opportunities

Analysis (EOA) requires communities to identify the major categories of industrial or
other employment uses that could reasonably be expected to locate or expand in the
planning area based on information about national, state, regional, county or local
trends; identify the number of sites by type reasonably expected to be needed to
accommodate projected employment growth based on the site characteristics typical of
expected uses; include an inventory of vacant and developed lands within the planning
area designated for industrial or other employment use; and estimate the types and
amounts of industrial and other employment uses likely to occur in the planning area.
22Jacksonville does not have industrial development in the traditional sense. Instead, the city allows small-scale
production work, such as craftsman and artisans. Throughout the EOA, when discussing industrial development
in Jacksonville, we use the term industrial to mean this type of small-scale production.
Local governments are also encouraged to assess community economic development
potential through a visioning or some other public input based process in conjunction
with state agencies.
2. Industrial and commercial development policies (OAR 660-009-0020). Cities with a

population over 2,500 are required to develop commercial and industrial development
policies based on the EOA. Local comprehensive plans must state the overall objectives
for economic development in the planning area and identify categories or particular
types of industrial and other employment uses desired by the community. Local
comprehensive plans must also include policies that commit the city or county to
designate an adequate number of employment sites of suitable sizes, types and
locations. The plan must also include policies to provide necessary public facilities and
transportation facilities for the planning area.
3. Designation of lands for industrial and commercial uses (OAR 660-009-0025. Cities and
counties must adopt measures to implement policies adopted pursuant to OAR 660-009-
0020. Appropriate implementation measures include amendments to plan and zone map
designations, land use regulations, public facility plans, and transportation system
plans. More specifically, plans must identify the approximate number, acreage and
characteristics of sites needed to accommodate industrial and other employment uses to
implement plan policies, and must designate serviceable land suitable to meet identified
site needs.
Plans for cities and counties within a Metropolitan Planning Organization or cities and
counties that adopt policies relating to the short-term supply of land must designate
suitable land to respond to economic development opportunities as they arise.
Factors Affecting Future Economic Growth in Jacksonville
Jacksonville exists as part of the larger economy of Southern Oregon and is strongly influenced
by regional economic conditions. For many factors, such as income, Jacksonville does not differ
significantly from the broader region. For other factors, such as labor, it does. Thus, Jacksonville
benefits from being a part of the larger regional economy and plays a specific role in it.
Factors that Affect Economic Development

The fundamental purpose of Goal 9 is to make sure that a local government plans for economic
development. The planning literature provides many definitions of economic development,
both broad and narrow. Broadly,
Economic development is the process of improving a communitys well-being through

job creation, business growth, and income growth (factors that are typical and reasonable
focus of economic development policy), as well as through improvements to the wider
social and natural environment that strengthen the economy.23
That definition acknowledges that a communitys well-being depends in part on narrower

measures of economic well-being (e.g., jobs and income) and on other aspects of quality of life
(e.g., the social and natural environment). In practice, cities and regions trying to prepare an
economic development strategy typically use a narrower definition of economic development:
they take it to mean business development, job growth, and job opportunity. The assumptions
are that:
Business and job growth are contributors to and consistent with economic development,
increased income, and increased economic welfare.
The evaluation of tradeoffs and balancing of policies to decide whether such growth is
likely to lead to overall gains in well-being (on average and across all citizens and
businesses in a jurisdiction, and all aspects of well-being) is something that decision
makers do after an economic strategy has been presented to them for consideration.
That logic is consistent with the tenet of the Oregon land-use planning program: that all goals
matter, no goal dominates, and the challenge is to find a balance of conservation and
development that is acceptable to a local government and state. Goal 9 does not dominate, but it
legitimizes and requires that a local government focus on the narrower view of economic
development: the one that focuses on economic variables.
In that context, a major part of local economic development policy is about local support for
business development and job growth; that growth comes from the creation of new firms, the
expansion of existing firms, and the relocation or retention of existing firms. Thus, a key
question for economic development policy is, What are the factors that influence business and job
23An Economic Development Toolbox: Strategies and Methods, Terry Moore, Stuart Meck, and James Ebenhoh, American
Planning Association, Planning Advisory Service Report Number 541, October 2006.
growth, and what is the relative importance of each? This document addresses that question in
depth.24
What Factors Matter?

Why do firms locate where they do? There is no single answerdifferent firms choose their
locations for different reasons. Key determinates of a location decision are a firms factors of
production. For example, a firm that spends a large portion of total costs on unskilled labor will
be drawn to locations where labor is relatively inexpensive. A firm with large energy demands
will give more weight to locations where energy is relatively inexpensive. In general, firms
choose locations they believe will allow them to maximize net revenues: if demand for goods
and services are held roughly constant, then revenue maximization is approximated by cost
minimization.
The typical categories that economists use to describe a firms production function are:
Labor. Labor is often the most important factor of production. Other things equal, firms
look at productivitylabor output per dollar. Productivity can decrease if certain types
of labor are in short supply, which increases the costs by requiring either more pay to
acquire the labor that is available, the recruiting of labor from other areas, or the use of
the less productive labor that is available locally.
Land. Demand for land depends on the type of firm. Manufacturing firms need more
space and tend to prefer suburban locations where land is relatively less expensive and
less difficult to develop. Warehousing and distribution firms need to locate close to
interstate highways.
Local infrastructure. An important role of government is to increase economic capacity
by improving quality and efficiency of infrastructure and facilities, such as roads,
bridges, water and sewer systems, airport and cargo facilities, energy systems, and
telecommunications.
Access to markets. Though part of infrastructure, transportation merits special attention.
Firms need to move their product, either goods or services, to the market, and they rely
on access to different modes of transportation to do this.
Materials. Firms producing goods, and even firms producing services, need various
materials to develop products that they can sell. Some firms need natural resources (i.e.,
raw lumber) and others may need intermediate materials (i.e., dimensioned lumber).
Entrepreneurship. This input to production may be thought of as good management, or
even more broadly as a spirit of innovation, optimism, and ambition that distinguishes
one firm from another even though most of their other factor inputs may be quite
similar.
The information in this section is based on previous Goal 9 studies conducted by ECONorthwest and the following
24
publication: An Economic Development Toolbox: Strategies and Methods, Terry Moore, Stuart Meck, and James Ebenhoh,
American Planning Association, Planning Advisory Service Report Number 541, October 2006.
The supply, cost, and quality of any of these factors obviously depend on market factors: on
conditions of supply and demand locally, nationally, and even globally. But they also depend
on public policy. In general, public policy can affect these factors of production through:
Regulation. Regulations protect the health and safety of a community and help maintain
the quality of life. Overly burdensome regulations, however, can be disincentives for
businesses to locate in a community. Simplified bureaucracies and straightforward
regulations can reduce the burden on businesses and help them react quickly in a
competitive marketplace.
Taxes. Firms tend to seek locations where they can optimize their after-tax profits. Tax
rates are not a primary location factorthey matter only after businesses have made
decisions based on labor, transportation, raw materials, and capital costs. The costs of
these production factors are usually similar within a region. Therefore, differences in tax
levels across communities within a region are more important in the location decision
than are differences in tax levels between regions.
Financial incentives. Governments can offer firms incentives to encourage growth. Most
types of financial incentives have had little significant effect on firm location between
regions. For manufacturing industries with significant equipment costs, however,
property or investment tax credit or abatement incentives can play a significant role in
location decisions. Incentives are more effective at redirecting growth within a region
than they are at providing a competitive advantage between regions.
This discussion may make it appear that a location decision is based entirely on a straight-
forward accounting of costs, with the best location being the one with the lowest level of overall
costs. Studies of economic development, however, have shown that location decisions depend
on a variety of other factors that indirectly affect costs of production. These indirect factors
include agglomerative economies (also known as industry clusters), quality of life, and
innovative capacity.
Industry clusters. Firms with similar business activities can realize operational savings
when they congregate in a single location or region. Clustering can reduce costs by
creating economies of scale for suppliers. For this reason, firms tend to locate in areas
where there is already a presence of other firms engaged in similar or related activities.
Quality of life. A community that features many quality amenities, such as access to
recreational opportunities, culture, low crime, good schools, affordable housing, and a
clean environment can attract people simply because it is a nice place to be. A regions
quality of life can attract skilled workers, and if the amenities lure enough potential
workers to the region, the excess labor supply pushes their wages down so that firms in
the region can find skilled labor for a relatively low cost. The characteristics of local
communities can affect the distribution of economic development within a region, with
different communities appealing to different types of workers and business owners.
Sometimes location decisions by business owners are based on an emotional or historical
attachment to a place or set of amenities, without much regard for the cost of other
factors of production.
Innovative capacity. Increasing evidence suggests that a culture promoting innovation,
creativity, flexibility, and adaptability is essential to keeping U.S. cities economically
vital and internationally competitive. Innovation is particularly important in industries
that require an educated workforce. High-tech companies need to have access to new
ideas typically associated with a university or research institute. Innovation affects both
the overall level and type of economic development in a region. Government can be a
key part of a communitys innovative culture, through the provision of services and
regulation of development and business activities that are responsive to the changing
needs of business.
How Important Are These Factors?

To understand how changes in public policies affect local job growth, economists have
attempted to identify the importance for firms of different locational factors. They have used
statistical models, surveys, and case studies to examine detailed data on the key factors that
enter the business location decision.
Economic theory says that firms locate where they can reduce the costs of their factors of
production (assuming demand for products and any other factors are held constant). Firms
locate in regions where they have access to inputs that meet their quality standards, at a
relatively low cost. Because firms are different, the relative importance of different factors of
production varies both across industries and, even more importantly, across firms.
No empirical analysis can completely quantify firm location factors because numerous
methodological problems make any analysis difficult. For example, some would argue
simplistically that firms will prefer locating in a region with a low tax rate to reduce tax
expenses. However, the real issue is the value provided by the community for the taxes
collected. Because taxes fund public infrastructure that firms need, such as roads, water, and
sewer systems, regions with low tax rates may end up with poor infrastructure, making it less
attractive to firms. When competing jurisdictions have roughly comparable public services
(type, cost, and quality) and quality of life, then tax rates (and tax breaks) can make a difference.
Further complicating any analysis is the fact that many researchers have used public
expenditures as a proxy for infrastructure quality. But large expenditures on roads do not
necessarily equal a quality road system. It is possible that the money has been spent
ineffectively and the road system is in poor condition.
An important aspect of this discussion is that the business function at a location matters more
than a firms industry. A single company may have offices spread across cities, with
headquarters located in a cosmopolitan metropolitan area, the research and development
divisions located near a concentration of universities, the back office in a suburban location, and
manufacturing and distribution located in areas with cheap land and good interstate access.
The location decisions of businesses are primarily based on the availability and cost of labor,
transportation, raw materials, and capital. The availability and cost of these production factors
are usually similar within a region. Most economic development strategies available to local
governments, however, only indirectly affect the cost of these primary location factors. Local
governments can most easily affect tax rates, public services, and regulatory policies.
Economists generally agree that these factors do affect economic development, but the effects
on economic development are modest. Thus, most of the strategies available to local
governments have only a modest affect on the level and type of economic development in the
community.
Local governments in Oregon also play a central role in the provision of buildable land through
inclusion of lands in the Urban Growth Boundary, as well as through determination of plan
designations and zoning, and through provision of public services. Obviously, businesses need
buildable land to locate or expand in a community. Providing buildable land alone is not
sufficient to guarantee economic development in a communitymarket conditions must create
demand for this land, and local factors of production must be favorable for business activity. In
the context of expected economic growth and the perception of a constrained land supply in
Jackson County, the provision of buildable land has the potential to strongly influence the level
and type of economic development in Jacksonville. The provision of buildable land is one of the
most direct ways that the City of Jacksonville can affect the level and type of economic
development in the community.
Summary of National, State and Regional Trends on Economic Development
in Jacksonville
This section presents the summary and the implications of national, state, and regional
economic trends on economic growth in Jacksonville. The trends are presented in the sections
following this summary.
National, State, and Regional Implications for economic growth in

Economic Trends Jacksonville
Moderate growth rates and recovery from the Economic growth in Jackson County, when
national recession measured through employment growth,
unemployment rates, and wage growth, has
After the end of the recession in 2009,
improved since the recession. For example, from
economic growth returned to the US economy,
March 2009 to November 2015, the Countys
with persistent increases in GDP, (2.1% in the
unemployment fell 14.7% to 6.1%.
third quarter of 2015) steady job growth
Jacksonvilles economy has grown as the
(averaging about 237,000 per month over
Countys economy has improved.
2015), and decline in the unemployment rate
(currently at about 5.1% compared to the The rate of employment growth in Jacksonville
recessionary peak of 10%). 25 will depend, in part, on the rate of employment
growth in Oregon and the nation. The Oregon
Unemployment at the national level has
Office of Economic Analysis forecasts that
gradually declined since the height of the
employment in the Rogue Valley Region (which
recession. Unemployment rates in Oregon are
includes Jackson County) will grow by about by
typically higher than those of the nation as a
about 13% from 2012 levels. Private
whole.
Educational and Health Services, Trade,
The federal governments economic forecast Transportation, and Utilities, and Leisure and
predicts a moderate pace of economic growth, Hospitality will make up the majority of the
with gradual increases in employment and Regions growth.
real GDP (roughly 3% through the end of
2016).
IHS Economic projects that Oregons economy
will be the fifth-fastest growing among all
states in the US, averaging annual growth of
about 3.5% through 2020. Though the Oregon
Office of Economic Analysis expects a slightly
slower rate, it still expects the Oregon to
exceed the national average. 26
25Job Growth Steady in July, Possibly Easing Path for Fed Action, The New York Times, August 7, 2015; US
Economy at a Glance, US Bureau of Economic Analysis, accessed December 14, 2015; Employment Situation
Summary, Economic News Release, Bureau of Labor Statistics, December 4, 2015.
26IHS Economics in Oregon Economic and Revenue Forecast, Oregon Office of Economic Analysis, Dec 2015.
http://www.oregon.gov/DAS/OEA/docs/economic/forecast1215.pdf
Growth of service-oriented sectors The changes in employment in Jackson County have
followed similar trends as changes in national and
Increased worker productivity and the
state employment. The sectors with the greatest
international outsourcing of routine tasks led
change in share of employment since 1980 were in
to declines in employment in the major goods-
Services.
producing industries. Projections from the
Bureau of Labor Statistics indicate that U.S.
The Oregon Employment Department forecasts that
employment growth will continue to be
the sectors likely to have the most employment
strongest in healthcare and social assistance,
growth in the Rogue Valley Regionthe region that
professional and business services, and other
includes Jackson Countyover the 2012 to 2022
service industries. Construction employment
period are: Private Educational and Health Services,
will grow with the economy, but manufacturing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities, Leisure and
employment will decline. These trends are
Hospitality, and Professional and Health Services.
also expected to affect the composition of
These sectors represent employment opportunities
Oregons economy, although manufacturing in
for Jacksonville.
Oregon will grow.
Importance of small businesses in Oregons The average size for a private business in Jackson
economy County is 11.9 employees per business.
Jacksonvilles average business size is 5.6
Small business, with 100 or fewer employees,
employees per business
account for 41% of private-sector employment
in Oregon. Workers of small businesses
Businesses with 10 or fewer employees account for
typically have had lower wages than the state
nearly 90% of employment in Jacksonville.
average.
Jacksonville has five employers with 30 or more
employees.
Growth of small businesses presents opportunities

for economic growth in Jacksonville.
Availability of trained and skilled labor Employment in Jackson County grew at about 0.6%
annually over the 2000 to 2014 period, while
Businesses in Oregon are generally able to fill
population grew at about 1.7% over the same
jobs, either from available workers living within
period.
the State or by attracting skilled workers from
outside of the State.
About 80% of workers at businesses located in
Jacksonville lived in Jackson County, and 9% lived
Availability of labor depends, in part, on
within Jacksonville city limits. Firms in Jacksonville
population growth and in-migration. Oregon
attracted workers from Southern Oregon. Over 70%
added more than 1,120,000 new residents
of workers in Jacksonville commuted into the City
and about 465,000 new jobs between 1990
from elsewhere, many from Medford (26% of
and 2014. The population-employment ratio
Jacksonville workers), Central Point (8%), and
for the State was about 2.2 residents per job
Ashland (3%). These commuting patterns are similar
over the 24-year period.
to commuting in other cities in the Southern Oregon.
Availability of labor also depends on workers
Jacksonvilles residents were more likely to have a
willingness to commute. Workers in Oregon
Bachelors degree or higher (45%) than the State
typically have a commute that is 30 minutes
average (30%).
or shorter. More than half of people who work
at businesses located in cities in the
Willamette Valley commute into the city for
work, from a residence outside of the city (e.g.,
58% of workers commuted into Portland for
work in 2011, from their place of residence
outside of Portland).
Availability of skilled workers depends, in part,

on educational attainment. About 30% of
Oregons workers have a Bachelors degree or
higher.
Aging of the population The changes in the Jackson Countys age structure
are similar to that of the State, with the most growth
The number of Oregonians aged 65 and older
observed in people 60 years and older.
will nearly than double between 2015 and
2050, while the number of people under age
The State projects that the share of the population
65 will grow by only about 29%. The economic
over the age of 60 in the Jackson County will
effects of this demographic change include a
increase from 28% to 36% from 2015 and 2035.
slowing of the growth of the labor force, an
increase in the demand for healthcare
services, and an increase in the percent of the Firms in Jacksonville will need to replace workers as
federal budget dedicated to Social Security they retire. Demand for replacement workers is likely
and Medicare. to outpace job growth in Jacksonville, consistent with
State trends. Given the CBOs forecast of relatively
low unemployment rates (about 5.5% through
Furthermore, people are retiring later than
2025), businesses in Jacksonville (and throughout
previous generations and continuing to work
the State) may have difficulties finding replacement
past 65 years old. This trend is seen both at
workers.
the national and State levels. Even given this
trend, the need for workers to replace retiring
Baby Boomers will outpace job growth.
Management occupations and teachers will
have the greatest need for replacement
workers because these occupations have
older-than-average workforces.
Increases in energy prices In 2015, low energy prices have decreased the costs
of commuting. Over the long-term, if energy prices
Although energy prices are currently low by
increase, these higher prices will likely affect the
historical standards, over the long-term,
mode of commuting before affecting workers
energy prices are forecast to return to
willingness to commute. For example, commuters
relatively high levels, as the economy and the
may choose to purchase a more energy-efficient car,
population grow.
use the bus, or carpool.
As energy prices increase over the planning
Very large increases in energy prices may affect
period, energy consumption for transportation
workers willingness to commute, especially workers
may decrease. Increasing energy prices may
living the furthest from Jacksonville or workers with
decrease willingness to commute long
lower paying jobs. In addition, very large increases in
distances. However the impact on
energy prices may make shipping freight long
transportation costs from energy prices may
distances less economically feasible, resulting in a
be partly offset by increased energy efficiency
slow-down or reversal of off-shore manufacturing,
of vehicles and stricter emissions standards.
especially of large, bulky goods.
Comparatively low wages Income in Oregon has historically been below

national averages. Jackson Countys per capita
The income of a region affects the workforce
personal income has remained beneath that of the
and the types of businesses attracted to the
State and the nation. While the Countys average
region. Average income affects workers and
wages followed a similar trend as personal income,
businesses in different ways. Workers may be
they remained below the State in both 2000 and
attracted to a region with higher average wage
2014. In 2014, Jackson Countys average wage of
or high wage jobs. Businesses, however, may
about $38,005 compared to the State ($46,515).
prefer to locate in regions with lower wages,
where the cost of doing business may be
There are three basic reasons that wages are lower
lower.
in Oregon and Jackson County than in the U.S.: (1)
wages for similar jobs are lower; (2) the occupational
Since the early 1980s, Oregons per capita
mix of employment is weighted towards lower paying
personal income has been consistently lower
occupations; (3) a large proportion of Jackson
than the U.S. average. In 2014, Oregons per
Countys population are retired.
capita wage was 91% of the national average.
From 2000 to 2014 nominal wages in the
In addition, wages in Jackson County and Oregon
nation grew by 46% from $35,300 to
tend to be more volatile than the national average.
$51,400, while wages in Oregon increased by
The major reason for this volatility is the relative lack
only 42% from $32,800 to $46,500.
of diversity in the State and County economy.
Education as a determinant of wages Jacksonvilles residents were one and a half times
as likely to have a Bachelors degree, compared to
The majority of the fastest growing
Oregon residents as a whole (45% versus 30%).
occupations will require an academic degree,
and on average they will yield higher incomes
While average educational attainment in
than occupations that do not require an
Jacksonville is high, average wages in Jacksonville
academic degree.
are relatively low. For example, the median
household income in Jacksonville in the 2009-13
The fastest growing occupations requiring an
period was about $40,725, compared to $50,229 in
academic degree will be: industrial-
the state. This difference may be due to the shifting
organizational psychologists, interpreters and
employment trend toward a more service-based
translators, diagnostic medical sonographers,
labor force. On average, wages for service-based
occupational therapy assistants, genetic
jobs are lower in comparison to more technical jobs
counselors, physical therapist assistants, and
such as manufacturing.
physician assistants. Occupations that do not
require an academic degree (e.g., retail sales
Businesses that want to locate in Jacksonville can
person, food preparation workers, and home
draw from the labor pool of Southern Oregon.
care aides) will grow, accounting for almost
two-thirds of all new jobs by 2022. These
occupations typically have lower pay than
occupations requiring an academic degree.
The national median income for people over

the age of 25 in 2014 was about $43,628.
Workers without a high school diploma earned
$18,252 less than the median income, and
workers with a high school diploma earned
$8,892 less than median income. Workers
with some college earned $5,096 less than
median income, and workers with a bachelors
degree earned $13,624 more than median.
Workers in Oregon experience the same
patterns as the nation, but pay is generally
lower in Oregon than the national average.
Importance of innovative capacity The Small Business Development Centers (SBDC)

have multiple locations, a couple of which are
Many businesses in the U.S. are growing as a
located at community colleges near Jacksonville. The
result of innovation and entrepreneurship.
Medford SBDC is located at Southern Oregon
Innovation is particularly important in
Universitys (SOU) Higher Education Center which
industries that require an educated workforce,
assists entrepreneurs in developing business plans
such as high-tech companies.
and working on their finances. The SOU Market
Research Institute provides applied market research
to aid already existing companies in creating jobs.
Sustainable Valley Technology Group (SVTG) aims to

generate a more prosperous economy in the
Southern Oregon region. They are an economic
development initiative supporting entrepreneurs and
innovate start-up companies.
National Economic Trends
Economic development in Jacksonville over the next 20 years will occur in the context of long-
run national trends. The most important of these trends include:
Economic growth will continue at a moderate pace. Analysis from the Congressional
Budget Office (CBO) predicts moderate growth: 3.1% GDP growth in 2016, 3.7% in
2017, and 2.2% in 2018-2019. Increases in consumer spending, business investment, and
residential investment are expected to drive this growth.
The unemployment rate is expected to decrease to 5.0% by the fourth quarter of 2017,
and remain relatively steady after that. Growth in hourly compensation will increase
labor force participation, slowing its longer-term decline.
Beyond 2019, CBO projects that output will increase by 2.1% per year, higher that 2008-
2014 growth, but lower than the growth in the 1980s, 1990s, and early 2000s, mainly
due to slower labor force growth. Unemployment is expected to be 5.25% from 2020-
2025.27
The aging of the baby boomer generation, accompanied by increases in life
expectancy. As the baby boomer generation continues to retire, the number of Social
Security recipients is expected to increase from 59 million in 2014 to over 90 million in
2035, a 53% increase. However, due to lower-birth rate replacement generations, the
number of covered workers is only expected to increase 14.7% over the same time
period, from 165 million to almost 190 million in 2035. Thus, instead of the current 36
Social Security beneficiaries per 100 covered workers in 2014 will significantly increase
to 58 in 2035. This will increase the percent of the federal budget dedicated to Social
Security and Medicare.28
Baby boomers are expecting to work longer than previous generations. An increasing
proportion of people in their early to mid-50s expect to work full-time after age 65. In
2004, about 40% of these workers expect to work full-time after age 65, compared with
about 30% in 1992.29 This trend can be seen in Oregon, where the share of workers 65
years and older grew from 2.9% of the workforce in 2000 to 4.1% of the workforce in
2010, an increase of 41%. Over the same ten-year period, workers 45 to 64 years
increased by 15%.30
Need for replacement workers. The need for workers to replace retiring baby boomers
will outpace job growth. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, there will be 50.6
27Congressional Budget Office. An Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook: 2015-2025. August 2015.
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/50724
28The Board of Trustees, Federal Old-Age and Survivors Insurance and Federal Disability Insurance Trust Funds,
2015, The 2015 Annual Report of the Board of Trustees of the Federal Old-Age and Survivors Insurance and Federal Disability
Insurance Trust Funds, May 13, 2011.
The Health and Retirement Study, 2007, National Institute of Aging, National Institutes of Health, U.S.
29
Department of Health and Human Services.

30Analysis of 2000 Decennial Census data and 2010 U.S. Census American Community Survey, 1-Year Estimates for
the table Sex by Age by Employment Status for the Population 16 Years and Over
million total job openings over the 2012-2022 period, over two-thirds from replacement
needs. Almost two thirds of job openings are in occupations that do not require
postsecondary education.31
The importance of education as a determinant of wages and household income.
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, a majority of the fastest growing
occupations will require an academic degree, and on average, they will yield higher
incomes than occupations that do not require an academic degree. The fastest growing
occupations requiring an academic degree will be: industrial-organizational
psychologists, interpreters and translators, diagnostic medical sonographers,
occupational therapy assistants, genetic counselors, physical therapist assistants, and
physician assistants. Occupations that do not require an academic degree (e.g., retail
sales person, food preparation workers, and home care aides) will grow, accounting for
almost two-thirds of all new jobs by 2022. These occupations typically have lower pay
than occupations requiring an academic degree.32
The national median income for people over the age of 25 in 2014 was about $43,628.
Workers without a high school diploma earned $18,252 less than the median income,
and workers with a high school diploma earned $8,892 less than median income.
Workers with some college earned $5,096 less than median income, and workers with a
bachelors degree earned $13,624 more than median. Workers in Oregon experience the
same patterns as the nation, but pay is generally lower in Oregon than the national
average.33
Increases in labor productivity. Productivity, as measured by output per hour of labor
input, increased in most sectors over between 2000 and 2010, peaking in 2000 and 2007.
However, productivity increases were interrupted by the recession. After productivity
decreases from 2009 to 2009, many industries saw large productivity increases from
2009 to 2010. Industries with the fastest productivity growth were Information
Technology-related industries. These include wireless telecommunications carriers,
computer and peripheral equipment manufacturing, electronics and appliance stores,
and commercial equipment manufacturing wholesalers.34
The importance of high-quality natural resources. The relationship between natural
resources and local economies has changed as the economy has shifted away from
resource extraction. High-quality natural resources continue to be important in some
states, especially in the Western U.S. Increases in the population and in households
incomes, plus changes in tastes and preferences, have dramatically increased demands
for outdoor recreation, scenic vistas, clean water, and other resource-related amenities.
31 Occupational Employment Projections to 2012-2022, Bureau of Labor Statistics, December 2013.

32 Occupational Employment Projections to 2012-2022, Bureau of Labor Statistics, December 2013.
33 Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Projections, April 2015. http://www.bls.gov/emp/ep_chart_001.htm
34Brill, Michael R. and Samuel T. Rowe, Industry Labor Productivity Trends from 2000 to 2010. Bureau of Labor
Statistics, Spotlight on Statistics, March 2013.
Such amenities contribute to a regions quality of life and play an important role in
attracting both households and firms.35
Continued increase in demand for energy. Energy prices are forecasted to increase
over the planning period. While energy use per capita is expected to decrease to 2040,
total energy consumption will increase with rising population. Energy consumption is
expected to grow primarily from industrial and (to a lesser extent) commercial users,
and slightly decrease in the residential sector. Energy consumption for transportation is
expected to decrease, due to increased federal standards and increased technology for
energy efficiency in vehicles.
Energy consumption by type of fuel is expected to change over the planning period. By
2040, the U.S. will consume a little less oil and more natural gas and renewables.
Despite increases in energy efficiency and decreases in demand for energy by some
industries, demand for energy is expected to increase over the 2013 to 2040 period
because of increases in population and economic activity.36
Impact of rising energy prices on commuting patterns. As energy prices increase over
the planning period, transportation energy consumption for transportation will
decrease. Increasing energy prices may decrease willingness to commute long
distances.37 The increases in energy prices, may impact willingness to commute long
distances, but may be partly offset by increased energy efficiency of vehicles and
stricter emissions standards. Vehicle miles traveled (VMT) are expected to increase
through 2040.
Possible effect of rising transportation and fuel prices on globalization. Increases in
globalization are related to the cost of transportation: When transportation is less
expensive, companies move production to areas with lower labor costs. Oregon has
benefited from this trend, with domestic outsourcing of call centers and other back
office functions. In other cases, businesses in Oregon (and the nation) have off-shored
employment to other countries, most frequently manufacturing jobs.
Increases in either transportation or labor costs may impact globalization. When the
wage gap between two areas is larger than the additional costs of transporting goods,
companies are likely to shift operations to an area with lower labor costs. Conversely,
when transportation costs increase, companies may have incentive to relocate to be
closer to suppliers or consumers.
35For a more thorough discussion of relevant research, see, for example, Power, T.M. and R.N. Barrett. 2001. Post-
Cowboy Economics: Pay and Prosperity in the New American West. Island Press, and Kim, K.-K., D.W. Marcouiller, and
S.C. Deller. 2005. Natural Amenities and Rural Development: Understanding Spatial and Distributional Attributes.
Growth and Change 36 (2): 273-297.
Energy Information Administration, 2015, Annual Energy Outlook 2015 with Projections to 2040, U.S. Department of
36
Energy, April 2015.

Energy Information Administration, 2015, Annual Energy Outlook 2015 with Projections to 2040 Early Release
37
Overview, U.S. Department of Energy, April 2015.
This effect occurs incrementally over time, and it is difficult to measure the impact in
the short-term. If fuel prices and transportation costs decrease over the planning
period, businesses may not make the decision to relocate (based on transportation
costs) because the benefits of being closer to suppliers and markets may not exceed the
costs of relocation.
Potential impacts of global climate change. There is a consensus among the scientific
community that global climate change is occurring and will have important ecological,
social, and economic consequences over the next decades and beyond.38 Extensive
research shows that Oregon and other western states already have experienced
noticeable changes in climate and predicts that more change will occur in the future.39
In the Pacific Northwest, climate change is likely to (1) increase average annual
temperatures, (2) increase the number and duration of heat waves, (3) increase the
amount of precipitation falling as rain during the year, (4) increase the intensity of
rainfall events, and (5) increase sea level. These changes are also likely to reduce winter
snowpack and shift the timing of spring runoff earlier in the year.40
These anticipated changes point toward some of the ways that climate change is likely
to impact ecological systems and the goods and services they provide. There is
considerable uncertainty about how long it would take for some of the impacts to
materialize and the magnitude of the associated economic consequences. As the process
of climate change continues, changes in the climate will affect businesses across the
Pacific Northwest and the world.
Short-term national trends will also affect economic growth in the region, but these trends are
difficult to predict. At times, these trends may run counter to the long-term trends described
above. A recent example is the downturn in economic activity in 2008 and 2009 following
declines in the housing market and the mortgage banking crisis. The result of the economic
downturn was a decrease in employment related to the housing market, such as construction
and real estate. As these industries recover, they will continue to play a significant role in the
38Karl, T.R., J.M. Melillo, and T.C. Peterson, eds. 2009. Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. U.S. Global
Change Research Program. June. Retrieved June 16, 2009, from www.globalchange.gov/usimpacts; and Pachauri,
R.K. and A. Reisinger, eds. 2007. Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II, and III to the
Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
39Doppelt, B., R. Hamilton, C. Deacon Williams, et al. 2009. Preparing for Climate Change in the Upper Willamette River
Basin of Western Oregon. Climate Leadership Initiative, Institute for a Sustainable Environment, University of Oregon.
March. and Doppelt, B., R. Hamilton, C. Deacon Williams, et al. 2009. Preparing for Climate Change in the Rogue River
Basin of Southwest Oregon. Climate Leadership Initiative, Institute for a Sustainable Environment, University of
Oregon. March.
40Mote, P., E. Salathe, V. Duliere, and E. Jump. 2008. Scenarios of Future Climate for the Pacific Northwest. Climate
Impacts Group, University of Washington. March.; Littell, J.S., M. McGuire Elsner, L.C. Whitely Binder, and A.K.
Snover (eds). 2009. The Washington Climate Change Impacts Assessment: Evaluating Washington's Future in a
Changing Climate - Executive Summary. In The Washington Climate Change Impacts Assessment: Evaluating
Washington's Future in a Changing Climate, Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington.; Madsen, T. and E.
Figdor. 2007. When it Rains, it Pours: Global Warming and the Rising Frequency of Extreme Precipitation in the United
States. Environment America Research & Policy Center and Frontier Group.; and Mote, P.W. 2006. Climate-driven
variability and trends in mountain snowpack in western North America. Journal of Climate 19(23): 6209-6220.
national, state, and local economy over the long run. This report takes a long-run perspective on
economic conditions (as the Goal 9 requirements intend) and does not attempt to predict the
impacts of short-run national business cycles on employment or economic activity.
State Trends
Short-term Trends
Oregon is on its way to recovery from the recent recession. According to the Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis (OEA), the Oregon Economy is currently at full throttle growth. Wages
are increasing at almost 8% per year, although wages are still lower than in many other states.
Over the past year, Oregon added over 50,000 jobs, a 3.4%growth rate. The professional and
business services, health services, and leisure and hospitality industries have accounted for
almost half of total growth in the State. Oregon continues to have an advantage in jobs
compared to other states, due to its industrial sector and in-migration flows. However, Oregon
has not completely healed from the recession, highlighted by Oregons large participation gap
(the difference between the percent of the population either employed or looking for work now
and the same percentage when operating at full strength).41 Economic growth in Oregon is
expected to remain at the current pace through 2017, but slow as the baby boomers continue to
retire.42
The housing market is continuing to recover. Oregon is seeing high household formation rates,
which is good for the housing market. However, supply (both rental and ownership) of housing
has not kept pace with housing demand, causing home prices and rents to rise. If construction
cannot keep pace with household growth, housing affordability will become a greater issue. The
OEA expects construction to increase over the next three years, relieving some of this pressure.43
The Oregon Index of Leading Indicators has grown since 2012. The leading indicators showing
improvement are: volume of air freight initial claims for unemployment, withholdings out of
wages and salaries, and new incorporations of companies. However, negative indicators
include flat housing permits, decreasing industrial production, and the appreciating Oregon
Dollar Index.44
Oregons economic health is dependent on the export market. The value of Oregon exports in
2014 was $21 billion. The countries that Oregon has the most exports to are China (20% of total
Oregon exports), Canada (15%), Malaysia (12%), Japan (8%), South Korea (6%), and Taiwan
(5%).45 With the appreciation of Oregons dollar, Oregons exports have slowed.46 The economic
41Office of Economic Analysis. Oregon Economic and Revenue Forecast, September 2015. Vol. XXXV, No. 3. , page 8
http://www.oregon.gov/DAS/OEA/docs/economic/forecast0915.pdf
42 Office of Economic Analysis. Oregon Economic and Revenue Forecast, September 2015. Vol. XXXV, No. 3.
43 Office of Economic Analysis. Oregon Economic and Revenue Forecast, September 2015. Vol. XXXV, No. 3, page 18.
45United States Census. State Exports from Oregon, 2011-2014.
https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/statistics/state/data/or.html
46 Office of Economic Analysis. Oregon Economic and Revenue Forecast, September 2015. Vol. XXXV, No. 3, page 7
slowdown across many parts of Asia will continue to affect the Oregon economy. However, the
Trans-Pacific Partnership, a bill that would reduce trade barriers if approved, is expected to
increase Oregon exports to participating countries (such as Malaysia, Japan, and Canada).
Long-term Trends
State trends will also affect economic development in Jacksonville over the next 20 years. The
most important of these trends includes: continued in-migration from other states change in the
types of industries in Oregon, and the importance of small businesses to economic growth in
Oregon.
Continued in-migration from other states. Oregon will continue to experience in-
migration (more people moving to Oregon than from Oregon) from other states,
especially California and Washington. From 1990 to 2013, Oregons population
increased by almost 1.1 million, 65% of which was from people moving into Oregon
(net migration). The average annual increase in population from net migration over the
same time period was just over 29,000. During the early- to mid-1990s, Oregons net
migration was highest, reaching over 60,000 in 1991, with another smaller peak in the
mid 2000s. Oregon hasnt seen negative net migration since a period of negative net
migration in the early- to mid-1980s.47
Forecast of job growth. Total nonfarm employment is expected to increase from 1.7
million in 2013 to just over 2 million in 2022, an increase of 340,000 jobs. The industries
with the largest growth will be Professional and Business Services, Leisure and
Hospitality, Health Services, and Retail Trade, accounting for 61% of the forecasted
growth.48
Continued importance of manufacturing to Oregons economy. Oregons exports
totaled $19.4 billion in 2008, nearly doubling since 2000, and reached $21 billion in 2014.
In 2015, exports are on track to meet 2014s exports. The majority of Oregon exports go
to countries along the Pacific Rim, with Canada, China, Japan, Korea, and Malaysia as
top destinations. Oregons largest exports are tied to high-tech and mining, as well as
agricultural products.49 Manufacturing employment is concentrated in five counties in
the Willamette Valley or Portland area: Washington, Multnomah, Lane, Clackamas,
and Marion Counties.50
Shift in manufacturing from natural resource-based to high-tech and other
manufacturing industries. Since 1970, Oregon started to transition away from reliance
on traditional resource-extraction industries. A significant indicator of this transition is
the shift within Oregons manufacturing sector, with a decline in the level of
47Portland State University Population Research Center. 2013 Annual Population Report. April 2014.
http://www.pdx.edu/prc/annual-oregon-population-report
49Oregon Office of Economic Analysis. Oregon Exports 2015: Destination Countries. August 2015.
http://oregoneconomicanalysis.com/2015/08/13/oregon-exports-2015-destination-countries/
50 Business Oregon, Economic Data Packet
employment in the Lumber & Wood Products industry and concurrent growth of
employment in other manufacturing industries, such as high-technology
manufacturing (Industrial Machinery, Electronic Equipment, and Instruments),
Transportation Equipment manufacturing, and Printing and Publishing.51
Income. Oregons income and wages are below that of a typical state. However, mainly
due to the wage growth over the last two to three years, Oregon wages are at their
highest point relative to other states since the recession in the early 1980s. In 2014,
average annual wage was $46,515, and median household income was $51,075.52 Total
personal income (all classes of income, minus Social Security contributions, adjusted for
inflation) in Oregon is expected to increase by 63%, from $157 billion in 2013 to be $256
billion in 2022. Per capita income is expected to increase by 47% over the same time
period, from $40,000 in 2013 to $59,000 in 2022 (in nominal dollars).53
Small businesses continue to account for a large share of employment in Oregon.
While small firms played a large part in Oregons expansion between 2003 and 2007,
they also suffered disproportionately in the recession and its aftermath (64% of the net
jobs lost between 2008 and 2010 were from small businesses).
In 2012, small businesses (those with 100 or fewer employees) accounted for 96% of all
businesses and 41% of all private-sector employment in Oregon. Said differently, most
businesses in Oregon are small (in fact, 77% of all businesses have fewer than 10
employees), but the largest share of Oregons workers work for large businesses.
The average annualized payroll per employee at small businesses was $34,248 in 2012,
which is considerably less than that at large businesses ($48,938) and the statewide
average for all businesses ($46,669).54
51Although Oregons economy has diversified since the 1970s, natural resource-based manufacturing accounts for
nearly 40% of employment in manufacturing in Oregon in 2014, with the most employment in Wood Product and
Food manufacturing (QCEW).
Oregon Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, 2014. https://www.qualityinfo.org; US Census American
52
Community Survey 1-Year Estimates, 2014, Table B19013.

54U.S Census Bureau, 2012 Statistics of U.S. Businesses, Annual Data, Enterprise Employment Size, U.S and States.
http://www.census.gov/econ/susb/
Regional and Local Trends
Availability of Labor
The availability of trained workers in Jacksonville will impact development of its economy over
the planning period. A skilled and educated populace can attract well-paying businesses and
employers and spur the benefits that follow from a growing economy. Key trends that will
affect the workforce in Jacksonville over the next 20 years include its growth in its overall
population, growth in the senior population, and commuting trends.
GROWING POPULATION
Population growth in Oregon tends to follow economic cycles. Historically, Oregons economy
is more cyclical than the nations, growing faster than the national economy during expansions,
and contracting more rapidly than the nation during recessions. Oregon grew more rapidly
than the U.S. in the 1990s (which was generally an expansionary period) but lagged behind the
U.S. in the 1980s. Oregons slow growth in the 1980s was primarily due to the nationwide
recession early in the decade. As the nations economic growth slowed during 2007, Oregons
population growth began to slow.
Oregons population grew from 2.8 million people in 1990 to 4.0 million people in 2014, an
increase of over 1,100,000 people at an average annual rate of 1.39%. Oregons growth rate
slowed to 1.05% annual growth between 2000 and 2014.
Exhibit 22 shows that Jacksonville grew from about 1,896 people in 1990 to 2,840 people in 2014,
an increase of 944 people. Exhibit 23 shows this population growth is 50%, higher than both
Jackson County (42%) and Oregon (39%).
Exhibit 24 shows that Jacksonvilles population grew at an annual average rate of 1.7% over
1990 to 2014, faster than both Jackson County (1.5%) and Oregon (1.4%).
AGE DISTRIBUTION
This report presented data on the aging population in the Housing Needs Analysis Chapter 3
with respect to their impact on housing. These age-related demographic trends have other
impacts on the economy. A growing population of seniors and baby boomers will fuel demand
for services in the health care industry. Important age trends, and their potential impact on the
economy are summarized below.
Exhibit 27 shows Jacksonvilles population distribution by age group. The age groups with the
largest impact on Jacksonvilles economy are the working age population and the aging, retiree
population.
Working age adults. Jacksonvilles population is older, with a median age of 60 years,
compared to Jackson Countys median age of about 42 years old and Oregons average
of nearly 39 years old. Jacksonville has a relatively small percentage of working age
population (people between 20 and 59 years old), 43% of the population compared with
the County average of 51%. Despite the relatively small potential workforce,
Jacksonvilles proximity to working age people in Medford and other cities in the Rogue
Valley allow businesses in Jacksonville to attract workers from across the region.
Baby boomers and retirees. Jacksonvilles current population is older than average.
Jacksonvilles population will continue to age, consistent with the broader state and
national trends, as the baby boomer population continues to move into retirement. The
State forecasts the share of residents aged 60 years and older will account for about 36%
of Jackson Countys population in 2035, compared to around 25% in 2010.
This forecast matches national trends, which forecast that the number of people age 65
and older in the U.S. is expected to double by 2050, while the number of people under
age 65 will only grow by 12%. The economic effects of this demographic change include
a slowing of the growth of the labor force, need for workers to replace retirees, aging of
the workforce for seniors that continue working after age 65, and an increase in the
demand for healthcare services.
The aging of the baby boomers has important implications for businesses in Jacksonville.
The most common impact will be the need for replacement workers as baby boomers
retire. Given the CBOs forecast of relatively low unemployment rates (about 5.5%
through 2025), businesses in Jacksonville (and throughout the State) may have
difficulties finding replacement workers.
Depending on whether retirees continue to live in Jacksonville after retirement, growth
in the senior population may result in growth in demand for doctors offices, assisted-
living facilities, and in-home care. Some of these jobs may be located in Jacksonville if
there is sufficient local demand for these services. Otherwise, retirees will need to travel
to Medford for health care and related services.
INCOME
Income and wages affect business decisions for locating in a city. Areas with higher wages may
be less attractive for industries that rely on low-wage workers.
Per capita income55 grew most years during the 34-year period, with the exception of a decrease
during the recession. Since 1980, Oregons per capita personal income is consistently lower than
the U.S. average. In 1980, Oregons per capita personal income equaled the national average. By
2013, Oregons per capita personal income reached 90% of the national average. Oregons
relatively low wages make the state attractive to businesses seeking to locate in areas with
lower-than-average wages.
Jackson Countys per capita income remained consistently below the State average, though it
followed similar growth trends as State personal income. In 2006, Jackson County reached an
almost identical level compared to the State, but remained below the States average for
following years. In 2014, Jackson Countys per capita income was 91% of the State average.
Since 2000, per capita personal income has increased in the nation but remained relatively flat in
Oregon and Jackson County with Oregons growth (6%) exceeding Jackson Countys growth
(2%) over the post-recession period between 2009 and 2014.
Per capita income Exhibit 55. Per Capita Personal Income, US, Oregon, Jackson County,
(adjusted for inflation) in 1980 to 2014, Inflation-adjusted 2014 Dollars
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Per Capita Personal Income, Table CA-1
the nation, Oregon, and $50,000
Jackson County has
grown since 1980. $45,000
However, the rate of growth
in income slowed since $40,000
2000. From 2000 to 2014,
per capita personal $35,000
incomes grew by only 10%
in the nation, 4% $30,000
throughout the State, and
$25,000
6% in Jackson County.
In 2014 per capita personal
$20,000
income was about $46,049
in the nation, $41,220 in $15,000
Oregon, and $37,637 in 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Jackson County. U.S. Oregon Jackson County
55Personal income includes wages, dividends and interest from investments, rent from investments, pension play
payments and transfer payments (e.g., social security payments). Per capita personal income is the personal income
of the area divided by the total number of people in the area.
While per capita personal income has grown since 2000 in Jackson County, average wages have
also increased between 2000 and 2014. Over the same period, average wages increased in
Oregon and the U.S. The increase in average wages in Jackson County has many causes but one
cause is the change in mix of jobs in Jackson County since 2001. Employment in higher wage
industries such as construction and manufacturing decreased by approximately 350 and 360
jobs, respectively over the 2001 to 2014 time period, while education and health service jobs
increased by 3,800. Even though education and health service jobs have an average pay below
both construction and manufacturing, the larger increase of jobs in this sector generates more
wages for people in Jackson County.
From 2000 to 2014, Exhibit 56. Average Annual Wage, Covered Employment, US, Oregon,
average annual wages and Jackson County, 2000 to 2014, Inflation-adjusted 2014 Dollars
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages
rose in Jackson County,
Oregon, and the nation.
In 2014, average annual Jackson County
2014
wages were about $38,005
in Jackson County, 2000
$46,515 in Oregon, and
$51,361 in the nation. Oregon
U.S.
$30,000 $35,000 $40,000 $45,000 $50,000 $55,000
Exhibit 34 shows Jacksonvilles median family income to be $53,630 in the 2009 to 2013 period.
This is higher than the median family income for Jackson County, $53,254.
LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION AND UNEMPLOYMENT
The current labor force participation rate is an important consideration in the availability of
labor. The labor force in any market consists of the adult population (16 and over) who are
working or actively seeking work. The labor force includes both the employed and
unemployed. Children retirees, students, and people who are not actively seeking work are not
considered part of the labor force. According to the 2009-13 American Community Survey,
Jacksonville has over 1,360 people in its labor force. About 53% of Jacksonvilles working age
population is in the labor force, compared to 63% of the states working-age population and
59% of Jackson Countys working-age population. In Jacksonville, people who are in their
retirement years make up the majority of the population not in the Citys labor force (about
66%), which is one reason for the lower participation rate compared to the County and State.
In 2015, the Oregon Office of Economic Analysis observed that about 32% of all job vacancies in
the state were attributable to a lack of qualified applicantspeople who dont have the
education, certification, or experience to fill the job posting. This indicates a mismatch between
the types of jobs that employers are demanding and the skills that potential employees can
provide.
Jacksonville has a lower Exhibit 57. Labor Force Participation, Jacksonville, Jackson County,
labor force participation Oregon, 2009-13
Source: US Census Bureau, 2009-13 ACS Table B23001
rate (53%) than Jackson
County (59%) and
Oregon 63%
Oregon (63%). The likely
reason for the lower labor
force participation rate is
Jackson County 59%
many people are already
retired.
Jacksonville 53%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
The unemployment rate Exhibit 58. Unemployment Rate, US, Oregon, Jackson County, 2000-
in Oregon and the US 2014
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics and Labor Force
has declined since the Statistics
recession. 16%
In 2014, the unemployment United States Oregon
rate in Jackson County was 14%
about 8.6%, higher than Jackson County
12%
both 6.9% in Oregon and
6.2% in the nation. 10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
COMMUTING PATTERNS
Of the more than 775 people who work in Jacksonville, over 70% of workers commute into
Jacksonville from other areas, most notably Medford, Central Point, and Ashland. 826 residents
of Jacksonville commute out of Jacksonville for work, most frequently to Medford, Ashland,
and Grants Pass.
Jacksonville is part of Exhibit 59. Commuting Flows, Jacksonville, 2013

an interconnected
regional economy.
Fewer people both live and
work in Jacksonville than
commute into or out of the
city.
About 9% of all people Exhibit 60. Places Where Jacksonville Workers Lived, 2013
who work in
Jacksonville also live in
Jacksonville.
9% 26% 8% 3%
Jacksonville Medford Central Point Ashland
About 7% of residents Exhibit 61. Places Where Jacksonville Residents were Employed,
who live in Jacksonville 2013
also work in
Jacksonville. Forty five 7% 45% 7% 3%
percent of Jacksonville Jacksonville Medford Ashland Grants Pass
residents commute to
Medford.
Most Jacksonville Exhibit 62. Commute Time by Place of Residence, 2009-13
residents have a
commute time that 60 or more
Commute time (minutes)

takes less than 30
minutes. 45 to 59
About 81% of Jacksonville
residents have commute 30 to 44
times less than 30
minutes, and only 3% 15 to 29
commute for longer than
one hour. Less than 15
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

Percent of Population
Jacksonville Jackson Couny Oregon
Jacksonvilles businesses attract workers from across the Southern Oregon region. Exhibit 60
shows 26% of people who work in Jacksonville commute from Medford, 8% from Central Point,
and 3% from Ashland. The remaining workers commute from many other cities located in
Southern Oregon.
Changes in Employment
The economy of the nation changed substantially between 1980 and 2014. These changes
affected the composition of Oregons economy, including Jackson County and Jacksonvilles
economy. At the national level, the most striking change was the shift from manufacturing
employment to service-sector employment. The most important shift in Oregon during this
period has been the shift from a timber-based economy to a more diverse economy, with the
greatest employment in services.
EMPLOYMENT TRENDS IN JACKSON COUNTY

Over the past few decades, employment in the U.S. has shifted from manufacturing and
resource-intensive industries to service-oriented sectors of the economy. Increased worker
productivity and the international outsourcing of routine tasks have led to declines in
employment in the major goods-producing industries.
In the 1970s, Oregon started to transition away from reliance on traditional resource-extraction
industries. An important indicator of this transition is the shift within Oregons manufacturing
sector, with a decline in the level of employment in the Lumber & Wood Products industry56
and concurrent growth of employment in high-technology manufacturing industries (Industrial
Machinery, Electronic Equipment, and Instruments).57
As Oregon has transitioned away from natural resource-based industries, the composition of
Oregons employment has shifted from natural resource based manufacturing and other
industries to service industries. The share of Oregons total employment in Service industries
increased from its 1970s average of 19% to 30% in 2000, while employment in Manufacturing
declined from an average of 18% of total employment in the 1970s to an average of 12% in 2000.
The changes in sectors and industries are shown in two tables: (1) between 1980 and 2000 and
(2) between 2001 and 2014. The analysis is divided in this way because of changes in industry
and sector classification that made it difficult to compare information about employment
collected after 2001 with information collected prior to 2000.
Employment data in this section is summarized by sector, each of which includes several
individual industries. For example, the Retail Trade sector includes General Merchandise Stores,
Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers, Food and Beverage Stores, and other retail industries.
Exhibit 63 shows changes in the Jackson County MSA between 1980 and 2000. Over the total
period, total employment in Jackson County increased by 73% from about 42,600 to 73,600
employees. Between 1980 and 2000, employment in services as a share of total employment rose
from 17% to 28%.
56 Lumber and Wood Products manufacturing is in Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) 24

57 SIC 35, 36, 38
Exhibit 63. Covered Employment by SIC Industries, Jackson County, 1980-2000
Change 1980 to 2000
Sector 1980 1990 2000
Difference Percent AAGR Share
Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing 880 1,494 2,224 1,344 153% 4.7% 1%
Mining 87 0 159 72 83% 3.1% 0%
Construction 1,989 2,100 3,645 1,656 83% 3.1% 0%
Manufacturing 7,583 8,843 9,231 1,648 22% 1.0% -5%
Trans., Comm., & Utilities 2,178 2,826 3,838 1,660 76% 2.9% 0%
Wholesale Trade 2,350 2,472 2,512 162 7% 0.3% -2%
Retail Trade 9,756 13,639 18,866 9,110 93% 3.4% 3%
Finance, Insurance, & Real Estate 1,658 2,018 2,544 886 53% 2.2% 0%
Services 7,215 12,029 20,387 13,172 183% 5.3% 11%
Non Classifiable NA NA 26 NA NA NA NA
Federal Government 1,794 1,822 1,745 -49 -3% -0.1% -2%
State Government 1,489 1,567 1,786 297 20% 0.9% -1%
Local Government 5,630 5,315 6,655 1,025 18% 0.8% -4%
Total 42,609 54,125 73,618 31,009 73% 2.8%
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, 1980-2000.
Note: ND stands for Not disclosed and indicates that the data has been suppressed by the BLS due to confidentiality constraints. In
most years, the non-disclosure is negligible.
Exhibit 64 shows employment in NAICS-categorized industries in Jackson County for 2001 and
2014. Employment increased by 5,652 jobs, or 8%, during this period. The private sectors with
the largest increases in numbers of employees were Education and Health Services, Leisure and
Hospitality, and State Government.
Exhibit 64. Covered Employment by Industry, Jackson County, 2001-2014

Change 2001 to 2014
Sector 2001 2014
Difference Percent AAGR Share
Natural Resources and Mining 2,376 2,319 -57 -2% -0.2% 0%
Construction 3,640 3,289 -351 -10% -0.8% -1%
Manufacturing 7,701 7,342 -359 -5% -0.4% -1%
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 17,672 17,917 245 1% 0.1% -1%
Information 1,815 1,343 -472 -26% -2.3% -1%
Financial Activities 2,907 3,094 187 6% 0.5% 0%
Professional and Business Services 6,348 6,743 395 6% 0.5% 0%
Education and Health Services 10,150 13,964 3,814 38% 2.5% 4%
Leisure and Hospitality 8,511 9,876 1,365 16% 1.2% 1%
Other Services 2,769 3,030 261 9% 0.7% 0%
Unclassified 25 2 -23 -92% -17.7% 0%
Federal Government 1,731 1,708 -23 -1% -0.1% 0%
State Government 1,717 2,378 661 38% 2.5% 1%
Local Government 6,739 6,748 9 0% 0.0% -1%
Total 74,101 79,753 5,652 8% 0.6%
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, 2001-2014
Note: ND stands for Not Disclosed and indicates that the data has been suppressed by the BLS due to confidentiality constraints. The
total amount of not-disclosed employment is shown in the table.
Exhibit 65 shows covered employment and average wage for the 10 largest industries in Jackson
County. Jobs in Education and Health Services, which account for about 18% of the Countys
covered employment, pay more per year than the county average ($46,069 compared to
$38,353). Jobs in Manufacturing, Local Government, Professional and Business Services,
Construction, Financial Activities, and State Government all pay about the county average,
while those in Trade, Transportation, and Utilities, Leisure and Hospitality, and Other Services
pay less than the average.
Exhibit 65. Covered Employment and Average Pay by Industry, 10 Largest Industries Jackson
County, 2014
20,000 $60,000
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EMPLOYMENT IN JACKSONVILLE
Exhibit 66 details the number of business establishments for each industry sector in Jacksonville
as well as the number of employees in each industry and the total payrolls for 2014. 70% of
Jacksonvilles employment is in office-based and service-based jobs, with the highest
concentration in Accommodations and Food Services. For a private business in Jackson County,
the average number of employees is 11.9 per business. Jacksonville has a smaller average, with
5.6 employees per business. Nearly 90% of employment in Jacksonville is in businesses with 10
or fewer employees. Jacksonville has five employers with 30 or more employees.
Exhibit 66. Covered Employment, Jacksonville, 2014

Establish- Average Pay
Sector/Industry ments Employees Payroll / Employee
Construction 11 32 $ 1,103,474 $ 34,484
Construction of Buildings 5 8 $ 206,926 $ 25,866
Heavy and Civil Engineering Construction 3 4 $ 105,989 $ 26,497
Specialty Trade Contractors 3 20 $ 790,559 $ 39,528
Manufacturing 6 46 $ 1,419,124 $ 30,851
Wholesale Trade and Transportation & Warehousing 9 7 $ 669,294 $ 95,613
Retail Trade 20 100 $ 1,647,879 $ 16,479
Food and Beverage Stores 5 44 $ 792,771 $ 18,018
Other Retail 15 56 855108 $ 15,270
Finance and Insurance 13 72 $ 4,691,820 $ 65,164
Credit Intermediation and Related Activities 5 41 $ 2,189,385 $ 53,400
Securities, Commodity Contracts, & Other Investments 4 11 $ 1,116,092 $ 101,463
Insurance Carriers and Related Activities 4 20 $ 1,386,343 $ 69,317
Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 10 29 $ 613,769 $ 21,164
Professional Srv & Mgt of Companies & Information 22 67 $ 3,276,113 $ 51,189
Administrative and Support Services 5 7 $ 85,193 $ 12,170
Health Care and Social Assistance 9 83 $ 2,295,177 $ 27,653
Accommodation and Food Services 21 274 $ 4,996,190 $ 18,234
Accommodation 3 11 $ 170,137 $ 15,467
Food Services and Drinking Places 18 263 $ 4,826,053 $ 18,350
Other Services 17 37 $ 759,164 $ 20,518
Government 3 60 $ 2,608,992 $ 43,483
Total 146 814 $ 24,166,189 $ 29,965
Source: Oregon Employment Department Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW). Summary by industry and
percentages calculated by ECONorthwest.
Exhibit 67 shows the employment and average pay per employee for selected industrial sectors
in Jacksonville. Average pay for all employees ($28,451) is shown as a light brown line across
the graph and average pay for individual sectors as short red lines. The figure shows:
Finance and Insurance and Professional Services and Management of Companies are the
largest sectors that pay above average wage. Together, these two sectors account for 139,
or about 17% of all employment in Jacksonville.
The largest sectors of service-based employment, Accommodation and Food Services
(274 employees), Retail Trade (100), and Health Care and Social Assistance (83), pay
below average wages. Accommodation and Food Services employs 34% of Jacksonville
workers and pays an average wage of $18,234. This is above the average Retail Trade
wage ($16,479), but below the average Health Care and Social Assistance wage ($27,653).
Exhibit 67. Employment and Average Wage by Industry for Selected Sectors, Jacksonville, 2014
300 $120,000
Average Pay per Employee

250 $100,000
200 $80,000
Employees
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100 Average City Wage $40,000
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Source: Oregon Employment Department Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW). Summary by industry and
percentages calculated by ECONorthwest.
TOURISM IN SOUTHERN OREGON AND JACKSONVILLE
Longwoods International provides regional statistics on travel. The following information is
from Longwoods Internationals Oregon 2013 regional visitor report for the Southern Oregon
region.58 Broadly, travelers to Southern Oregon account for:
3.7 million overnight trips annually; 12% of Oregon Travel
Primary market area for travelers is Oregon, California, and Washington: 44% of
Southern Oregon visitors are from Oregon; 22% are from California; and 12% are from
Washington
64% stayed 2 or fewer nights; 31% stayed 3-6 days; and 5% stayed 7 or more days
Average per person expenditures on overnight trips range from $11 to $33 per night
About 72% of visits are by automobile; 9% travel by RV
Visitors are affluent, older, and well-educated: over half have college degrees; 30%
between ages 50-64; 22% 65+; 21% between $50 and $70k; 14% between $70 and $100k;
and 22% over $100k
Tourism is an important source of economic activity in Southern Oregon, accounting for about
11.3 million overnight visitors in 2014. The primary market areas for travelers to Southern
Oregon are California and Oregon. Exhibit 68 shows direct travel spending was $957 million in
the Southern Oregon Region in 2014, a 53% increase from 2000.59 In Jackson County, about $506
million in direct travel spending occurred, a 64% increase since 2000.
Exhibit 68. Direct Travel Spending, Southern Oregon Region and Jackson County, 2000-2014
Direct Travel Spending Change 2000 to 2014
Area ($million) ($million)
2000 2014 Number Percent
Southern Oregon Region $627 $957 $330 53%
Jackson County $307.9 $506.3 $198.40 64%
Source: Dean Runyan Associates, Oregon Travel Impacts, 1991-2014.
Lodging tax receipts measure travel activity through cities and regions in the state. Exhibit 69
shows Jacksonville has increased its lodging tax receipts by 70% over the 2004 to 2014 period.
This is larger than Jackson Countys increase of 45% over the same period.
Exhibit 69. Lodging Tax Receipts, Jackson County and Jacksonville, 2004-2014
Lodging Tax Receipts Change 2004 to 2014
Area ($thousand) ($thousand)
2004 2014 Number Percent
Jacksonville $61 $104 $43 70%
Jackson County $13,715 $19,890 $6,175 45%
Source: Dean Runyan Associates, Oregon Travel Impacts, 1991-2014.
58 Oregon 2013 Regional Visitor Report, The Southern Region, Longwoods International, 2013
59 The Economic Impacts of Travel in Oregon, Dean Runyan Associates, 2014
Jackson Countys largest visitor Exhibit 70. Largest Visitor Spending Categories, Jackson
spending for purchased County, 2014
Source: Oregon Travel Impacts
commodities are food services.
$115M $82M $55M
Food Service Accommodations Retail
Jackson Countys largest Exhibit 71. Largest Industry Employment Generated by

employment generated by Travel Spending, Jackson County, 2014
Source: Oregon Travel Impacts
travel spending is in the
accommodations and food
service industry.
3,600 jobs 700 jobs 480 jobs
Accommodations & Arts, Ent. & Rec. Retail
Food Service
REGIONAL BUSINESS CLUSTERS
One way to assess the types of businesses that are likely to have future growth in an area is to
examine relative concentration and employment growth of existing businesses. This method of
analysis can help determine relationships and linkages within industries, also called industrial
clusters. Sectors that are highly concentrated (meaning there are more than the average
number of businesses in a sector in a given area) and have had high employment growth are
likely to be successful industrial clusters. Sectors with either high concentration of businesses or
high employment groups may be part of an emerging cluster, with potential for future growth.
The US Cluster Mapper is a database created by the Harvard Business School and the US
Economic Development Administration. It provides a snapshot of the business clusters in
Jackson County. The business clusters it identified were:
Business Services. This cluster includes businesses such as consulting services,
employment placement services, engineers, architects, and others. In Jackson County,
this cluster employed 4,278 people in 2013.
Distribution and Electronic Commerce. This cluster consists of firms providing
wholesale of electronic goods, sporting and recreational goods, and professional
equipment supplies, among other services. In Jackson County, this cluster employed
2,732 people in 2013.
Transportation and Logistics. This cluster consists of firms providing air transportation,
specialties in air transportation, ground transportation support activities, trucking, and
bus transportation. In Jackson County, this cluster employed 2,024 people in 2013.
Wood Products. Production of wood components and products, processing wood, and
prefabricated wood building continue to be a significant employment cluster in Oregon.
Oregon is the dominant producer of softwood plywood, softwood veneer, engineered
wood products, and lumber. Emerging forest products include generation of renewable
electric energy and producing transportation bio-fuels from woody biomass. In Jackson
County, this cluster employed 1,836 people in 2013.
OUTLOOK FOR GROWTH IN JACKSON COUNTY
Exhibit 72 shows the Oregon Employment Departments forecast for employment growth by
industry for the Rogue Valley Region (Jackson and Josephine Counties) over the 2012 to 2022
period. Exhibit 72 shows employment in the Rogue Valley is forecast to grow at an average
annual growth rate of 1.24%.
The sectors that will lead employment in the region for the 10-year period are Private
Educational and Health Service (adding 3,750 jobs), Trade, Transportation, and Utilities (2,310),
Leisure and Hospitality (1,810), Professional and Health Services (1,550), and Government
(1,030). In sum, these sectors are expected to add 10,450 new jobs or about 80% of employment
growth in the Rogue Valley Region.
Exhibit 72. Regional Employment Projections, 2012-2022, Rogue Valley Region (Jackson and
Josephine Counties)
Change 2012-2022
Industry Sector 2012 2022
Number Percent AAGR
Total private 85,140 97,180 12,040 14% 1.3%
Natural resources and mining 2,700 3,000 300 11% 1.1%
Mining and logging 420 470 50 12% 1.1%
Construction 3,500 4,160 660 19% 1.7%
Manufacturing 9,030 9,890 860 10% 0.9%
Durable goods 6,050 6,720 670 11% 1.1%
Wood product manufacturing 2,210 2,440 230 10% 1.0%
Trade, transportation, and utilities 22,070 24,380 2,310 10% 1.0%
Wholesale trade 3,090 3,370 280 9% 0.9%
Retail trade 15,900 17,560 1,660 10% 1.0%
Transportation, warehousing, and utilities 3,080 3,450 370 12% 1.1%
Information 1,900 1,880 -20 -1% -0.1%
Financial activities 4,970 5,500 530 11% 1.0%
Professional and business services 8,370 9,920 1,550 19% 1.7%
Private educational and health services 17,540 21,290 3,750 21% 2.0%
Private educational services 860 940 80 9% 0.9%
Health care and social assistance 16,680 20,350 3,670 22% 2.0%
Health care 14,790 18,180 3,390 23% 2.1%
Leisure and hospitality 11,660 13,470 1,810 16% 1.5%
Accommodation and food services 10,010 11,600 1,590 16% 1.5%
Other services 3,400 3,690 290 9% 0.8%
Government 14,870 15,900 1,030 7% 0.7%
Federal government 1,950 1,830 -120 -6% -0.6%
State government 3,670 3,940 270 7% 0.7%
State education 1,370 1,500 130 9% 0.9%
Local government 9,250 10,130 880 10% 0.9%
Local education 5640 6,270 630 11% 1.1%
Total payroll employment 100,010 113,080 13,070 13% 1.2%
Source: Oregon Employment Department. Employment Projections by Industry 2012-2022.
Jacksonvilles Competitive Advantages
Economic development opportunities in Jacksonville will be affected by local conditions as well
as the national and state economic conditions addressed above. Economic conditions in
Jacksonville relative to these conditions in other portions of Southern Oregon form
Jacksonvilles competitive advantage for economic development. Jacksonvilles competitive
advantages have implications for the types of firms most likely to locate and expand in the area.
Jacksonvilles primary competitive advantages are: quality of life and connection to the
Southern Oregon economy. These factors make Jacksonville attractive to residents and
businesses that want a high quality of life where they can live and work.
The local factors that form Jacksonvilles competitive advantage are summarized below, with
additional details in the sections following this summary. The details of some of Jacksonvilles
competitive advantages were described in the prior section, such as access to labor.
Location. Jacksonville is located in Jackson County about a forty-minute drive from
Californias border (about 35 miles), a two hour forty-minute drive north to Eugene by
car (about 170 miles), and about thirty minutes northwest of Ashland (about 17 miles).
Businesses in Jacksonville have access to the labor force in the Southern Oregon region,
as well as the natural resources from surrounding rural areas, such as agricultural
products, wood, and other resources.
Transportation. Highway 238 provides for a direct route to Medford and both Highway
99 and I-5. Highway 99 runs parallel with I-5 North until just after Central Point and
runs parallel with I-5 South through Ashland. Interstate 5 provides access to larger cities
in Oregon such as Grants Pass, Eugene, and Portland north of Jacksonville. Other
transportation options include: bus (Greyhound); rail (Amtrak in Klamath Falls); and air
(Medford Airport).
Existing Employment base. Jackson County had more than 79,700 workers in 2014. The
countys largest employment sectors are Trade, Transportation, and Utilities (17,900
jobs), Education and Health Services (13,900 jobs), Leisure and Hospitality (9,800 jobs),
Manufacturing (7,300 jobs, and Local Government (6,700 jobs).
Labor Market. The availability of labor is critical for economic development.
Availability of labor depends not only on the number of workers available, but the
quality, skills, wages, and experience of available workers as well. Businesses in
Jacksonville have access to employees located in nearby cities such as Medford, Central
Point, and Ashland.
Economic development partnerships. Jacksonville is able to work organizations such as
Southern Oregon Regional Economic Development Inc. (SOREDI), Small Business
Development Centers (SBDC), Sustainable Valley Technology Group (SVTG), Southern
Oregon Angel Investment Network (SOAIN), and others, to promote entrepreneurial
services needed to retain and attract business to Jacksonville.
Quality of Life. Jacksonvilles pleasant climate, recreation opportunities, small town
atmosphere, historic downtown, cultural amenities and events, strong public safety, and
access to higher education combine to give the City a high quality of life for residents.
Jacksonvilles high quality of life is also attractive to visitors.
Historic Significance and Character. Jacksonville sets itself apart from similar
communities through its history and its dedication towards preserving it. Jacksonville is
listed in the National Register of Historic Places as a National Historic Landmark
District. Jacksonville is one of the only gold mining towns in Oregon. During the 19th
Century, Jacksonville enjoyed an economic boom and became a regional economic
center, in large part because of the agriculture and the lumber industries.
Tourist Attractions. Jacksonville is a popular tourist destination, in large part because of
the Citys history and quality of life. Jacksonvilles attractions include its historic
downtown, the Britt Music Festival, local museums, the natural beauty of the area, and
the Citys access to outdoor recreation. Jacksonville is also able to drawn on regional
attractions, such as the Shakespeare Festival in Ashland, regional outdoor recreation
(e.g., river sports on the Rogue River, Crater Lake or skiing on Mt. Ashland), and
agricultural tourism like the regions vineyards.
Public policy. Public policy can impact the amount and type of economic growth in a
community. The City can impact economic growth through its policies about the
provision of land and redevelopment. Success at attracting or retaining firms may
depend on availability of attractive sites for development and public support for
redevelopment. In addition, businesses may choose to locate in Jacksonville (rather than
in a different part of Southern Oregon) based on: development charges (i.e., systems
development charges), availability of public infrastructure (i.e., transportation or
sanitary sewer), and attitudes towards businesses.
Location
Jacksonville is a city with a population of approximately 2,840 people in 2014, located in
Southern Oregon to the west of Medford. Interstate 5 runs to Jacksonvilles east and Highway
238 runs east-west through the city. Highway 99 provides access to Central Point and Ashland.
Jacksonvilles location will impact the areas future economic development:
Jacksonville has easy access to the States highway system and other transportation
opportunities. Interstate 5 is approximately 6 miles to the east of Jacksonville and
Highway 238 is the primary east-west route through the City. Residents and businesses
in Jacksonville have access to other modes of transportation in Medford, including the
Medford Airport, Greyhound bus service, and Amtrak rail service.
Jacksonville is located in Jackson County, the sixth-most populated county in the State,
with 208,375 in 2014. Jacksonville is about five miles west of Medford, the eighth-most
populated city in the state with 76,650 people in 2014. Other nearby, relatively large
cities include Ashland, Central Point, and Grants Pass.
Residents of Jacksonville have easy access to shopping, indoor and outdoor recreational
activities, cultural activities such as the Britt Music and Arts Festival, and other
amenities in Jacksonville, Medford, and rural Jackson County.
Jacksonville residents have a couple nearby opportunities for post-secondary education:
the Southern Oregon Universitys Medford campus and Rogue Community College.
A distinct separation from other neighboring communities. Jacksonville is nestled at the
edge of the Bear Creek Valley with an expanse of farmland between it and other cities.
Jacksonvilles location, access to Highway 238, and proximity to larger cities in Southern
Oregon such as Medford are primary competitive advantages for economic development in
Jacksonville. Jacksonvilles distance from I-5 is a disadvantage for attracting businesses needing
easy access to I-5 for freight shipping, such as warehousing and distribution centers.
Availability of Transportation
All firms are heavily dependent upon surface transportation for efficient movement of goods,
customers, and workers. Access to an adequate highway and arterial roadway network is
needed for all industries. Close proximity to a highway or arterial roadway is critical for firms
that generate a large volume of truck or auto trips as well as firms that rely on visibility from
passing traffic to help generate business.
Businesses and residents in Jacksonville have access to a variety of modes of transportation:

automotive (I-5, Highways 238, 99, and 62, and local roads); Rogue Valley Transit District; bus
(Greyhound); and air (Medford Airport).
Jacksonville has sufficient automotive access for commuting via Highway 238 and I-5.
Jacksonvilles transportation access is more limited because of the Citys distance from I-5. In
addition, Highway 238 runs through Jacksonvilles downtown, which makes moving freight
along the highway undesirable from the Citys perspective because of disruptions from trucks.
Businesses and residents of Jacksonville also have access to Highway 62 in Medford and
Highway 66 in Ashland.
Public Facilities and Services

Provision of public facilities and services can impact a firms decision regarding location within
a region, but ECOs past research has shown that businesses make locational decisions
primarily based on factors that are similar within a region. These factors are: the availability and
cost of labor, transportation, raw materials, capital, and amenities. The availability and cost of
these production factors are usually similar within a region.
Once a business has chosen to locate within a region, they consider the factors that local
governments can most directly affect: tax rates, the cost and quality of public services, and
regulatory policies. Economists generally agree that these factors do affect economic
development, but the effects on economic development are modest. Thus, most of the strategies
available to local governments have only a modest affect on the level and type of economic
development in the community.
Water60
Note to reviewers: This section will be updated.
The Medford Water Commission provides water services to the city of Jacksonville. All cities
served by the Medford Water Commission are in the process of purchasing water rights from
the Lost Creek Reservoir and other sources. The Commission will continue providing treatment
and transportation for the additional water that the cities purchase, subject to eventual
infrastructure limitations. The Commission is in the process of updating their Facilities Plan to
assess future water treatment and distribution needs.
The future availability of water will be influenced by available water rights and public policies,
such as conservation and business attraction policies. The Medford Water Commission is
emphasizing the need to conserve water as the population increases. Of particular concern is
the amount of water required for irrigation of landscaping. The type of industries attracted to
the region will also be a factor in water availability. Over the last 20-years, the amount of water
used by industries has decreased and residential uses have increased. Industries use less water
now than they did in the past. If the region attracts water intensive industries (or gains are not
made in water use efficiency), availability of water could become a problem.
The water provided by the Medford Water Commission is very high quality and is currently
inexpensive. The areas served by the Medford Water Commission pay some of the lowest water
rates in the nation because of the low cost (minimal treatment and pumping demands) for the
Big Butte Spring water, and the fact that most of the major infrastructure was constructed
decades ago and debt payment has been retired.
The information presented in this section is based on an update of the Economic Element of Jackson Countys
60
Comprehensive Plan, done by ECONorthwest in 2007.
Wastewater61
Note to reviewers: This section will be updated.
The Medford Regional Water Reclamation Facility provides wastewater treatment to all cities in
the Bear Creek Valley, including Jacksonville. According to Jim Hill, the facility processes about
17 million gallons of wastewater per day in dry weather and 80 million gallons per day in wet
weather. Their peak load in the winter of 2005 was 106 million gallons per day. The increase in
wastewater load during wet weather was caused by infiltration and inflow into the collection
system.
The Medford Regional Water Reclamation Facility is planning to increase capacity to meet
future demands. Rather than increasing capacity once every 10 or 20 years, they increase the
capacity of the facility yearly. They also revise their 20-year Capital Improvements Plan
frequently. As a result of the incremental upgrades, they expect to be able to meet the demands
of the growing population.
The cost of waste treatment from the Medford Regional Water Reclamation Facility is lower
than the costs that neighboring cities pay for waste treatment.
Quality of Life
Quality of life is difficult to assess because it is subjectivedifferent people will have different
opinions about factors that affect quality of life, desirable characteristics of those factors, and the
overall quality of life in any community. Economic factors such as income, job security, and
housing cost are often cited as important to quality of life. These economic factors and overall
economic conditions are the focus of this report, so this section will focus on non-economic
factors that affect quality of life.
Jacksonvilles quality of life is a key comparative advantage for economic development. Key
quality of life factors in Jacksonville are:
Small town atmosphere. Jacksonville has a small town atmosphere. Jacksonville has a
relatively compact downtown, with opportunities for shopping and dining.
Sunny, mild weather. The weather in Jackson County is generally sunny and mild.
Historic Character. Jacksonville sets itself apart from similar communities through its
history and its dedication towards preserving it. Jacksonville is listed in the National
Register of Historic Places as a National Historic Landmark District. The architecture in
most of downtown dates back to the 1850s and the layout caters to pedestrian activity.
Jacksonville has attractions that are of interest to residents and visitors, such as the
Beekman House and the Jacksonville Cemetery. The history of the gold mining industry
can also be seen in the city and the surrounding area.
The information presented in this section is based on an update of the Economic Element of Jackson Countys
61
Comprehensive Plan, done by ECONorthwest in 2007.
Outdoor recreational activities. There are a number of outdoor recreational
opportunities available in surrounding Jackson County, including: hiking, fishing and
boating on the Rogue River, the Bear Creek Greenway (which runs along the Bear Creek
from Ashland to the Rogue River), skiing, and other activities.
Ease of auto access. Jacksonville is connected to Medford by Highway 238 and has
relatively easy automobile access to I-5. Although some of the roads in the region suffer
from congestion, Jackson County has excellent automobile access, especially to I-5.
Cultural amenities and events. Residents of Jacksonville have access to cultural
amenities and events in Jacksonville, nearby cities, and rural Jackson County, such as
museums and wine tasting and vineyard activities. The City is home to the Britt Music
Festival. In addition, the County is home to a number of events, including: the
Shakespeare Festival, the Jackson County Fair, and other events.
Access to higher education. Southern Oregon University, located in Ashland, and
Rogue Community College, located in Medford and White City, provide access to
higher education to residents of Jacksonville and the rest of the County.
Access to medical care. Residents of Jacksonville can access medical care through two
regional medical centers: the Rogue Valley Medical Center, and the Providence Medford
Medical Center.
Jacksonvilles quality of life makes the City attractive to in-migrants and businesses that are
attracted to Jackson County.
Employment Growth and Target Industries
Forecast of Employment Growth and Employment Land Demand
Goal 9 requires that cities provide for an adequate supply of commercial and industrial sites
consistent with plan policies. To meet this requirement, Jacksonville needs an estimate of the
amount of commercial and industrial land that will be needed over the planning period.
Throughout this section we refer to demand for commercial and industrial land as employment
land demand because Jacksonville does not have traditional industrial land.
Demand for employment land will be driven by the expansion of existing businesses, growth of
small local businesses, and new businesses locating in Jacksonville. The level of this business
expansion activity can be measured by employment growth in Jacksonville. This section
presents a projection of future employment levels in Jacksonville for the purpose of estimating
demand for employment land.
The projection of employment has four major steps:

1. Establish base employment for the projection. We start with the estimate of covered
employment in Jacksonvilles UGB presented in Exhibit 73. Covered employment does
not include all workers, so we adjust covered employment to reflect total employment in
Jacksonville.
2. Employment projection. This step involves forecasting total employment growth from
2016 to 2036 for the Jacksonville UGB.
3. Allocate employment. This step involves allocating employment to different land-use
types.
4. Determine employment land needs. The final step is to determine employment land
needs based on assumptions about future development patterns and employment
densities.
The employment projections in this section build off of Jacksonvilles existing employment base.
The employment forecast does not take into account a major change in employment that could
result from the location (or relocation) of one or more moderately-sized employers in the
community during the planning period. Such a major change in the communitys employment
would essentially be over and above the growth anticipated by the citys employment forecast
and the implied land needs (for employment, but also for housing, parks, and other uses).
Major economic events, such as the successful recruitment of a very large employer, are very
difficult to include in a study of this nature. The implications, however, are relatively
predictable: more demand for land (of all types) and public services.
Employment Base for Projection

The forecast of employment growth in Jacksonville starts with a base of employment growth on
which to build the forecast. Exhibit 73 ECOs estimate of total employment in the Jacksonville
UGB in 2014. To develop the figures, ECO started with estimated covered employment in the
Jacksonville UGB from confidential QCEW (Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages) data
provided by the Oregon Employment Department. Based on this information, Jacksonville had
about 814 covered employees in 2012.
Covered employment, however, does not include all workers in an economy. Most notably,
covered employment does not include sole proprietors. Analysis of data shows that covered
employment reported by the Oregon Employment Department for Jackson County is only
about 71% of total employment reported by the U.S. Department of Commerce. We made this
comparison by sector for Jackson County and used the resulting ratios to determine the number
of non-covered employees. This allowed us to determine the total employment in Jacksonville.
Exhibit 73 shows Jacksonville had an estimated 1,208 total employees within its UGB in 2014.
Exhibit 73. Estimated total employment, Jacksonville UGB by sector, 2014

Estimated Total
Employment
Covered Total Covered %
Employment Employment of Total
Construction 32 58 55%
Manufacturing 46 54 85%
Wholesale Trade and Transportation & Warehousing 7 9 0%
Retail Trade 100 122 82%
Finance & Insurance 72 143 50%
Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 29 164 18%
Professional Srv & Mgt of Companies & Information 67 95 71%
Administrative and Support Services 7 12 59%
Health Care and Social Assistance 83 106 79%
Accommodation & Food Services 274 302 91%
Other Services (except Public Administration) 37 82 45%
Government 60 61 98%
Total 814 1,208 71%
Source: 2014 covered employment from confidential Quarterly Census of Employment and Wage (QCEW) data provided by the Oregon
Employment Department.
Note: Covered employment as a percent of total employment calculated by ECONorthwest using data for Jackson County employment from
the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (total), and the Oregon Employment Department (covered).
Employment Projection
The employment forecast covers the 2016 to 2036 period, requiring an estimate of total
employment for Jacksonville in 2016. Jacksonville does not have an existing employment
forecast, and there is no required method for employment forecasting. OAR 660-024-0040(9) sets
out some optional safe harbors that allow a city to determine employment land need.
Jacksonville is relying on the safe harbor at OAR 660-024-0040(9)(a)(A), which allows
Jacksonville to assume that the current number of jobs in the Jacksonville urban area will grow
during the 20-year planning period at a rate equal to The county or regional job growth rate
provided in the most recent forecast published by the Oregon Employment Department.
Exhibit 72 shows that employment growth in Jackson and Josephine Counties are expected to
grow at an average annual growth rate of 1.24% between 2012-2022.
Exhibit 74 shows employment growth in Jacksonville between 2016 and 203. The forecast is
based on the assumption that Jacksonville will grow at an average annual growth rate of 1.24%,
consistent with the States forecast for employment growth in Jackson and Josephine Counties.
Jacksonville will have 1,582 employees within the UGB by 2036, an increase of 344 employees
(28%) between 2016 and 2036.
Exhibit 74. Forecast of employment growth

the Jacksonville UGB, 20162036
Total
Year Employment
2016 1,238
2036 1,582
Change 2016 to 2036
Employees 344
Percent 28%
AAGR 1.2%
Source: ECONorthwest
Allocate Employment to Land Use Types
Exhibit 75 presents the forecast of employment growth by land use type in Jacksonvilles UGB
from 2016 to 2036. Exhibit 75 shows Jacksonvilles employment base in 2016, with 1,238 total
employees, and forecast for 1,582 employees in 2036, an increase of 344 employees at an average
annual growth rate of 1.24%.
Exhibit 75 allocates growth in all land-use types and it forecasts a shift in the composition of
Jacksonvilles employment. Exhibit 75 does not forecast a shift in the allocation of employment
between 2016 and 2036.
Exhibit 75. Forecast of employment growth in by building type, Jacksonville UGB, 2016-2036
2016 2036 Change 2016
Land Use Type Employment % of Total Employment % of Total to 2036
Small-scale industrial 124 10% 158 10% 34
Retail Commercial 125 10% 158 10% 33
Office & Commercial Services 926 75% 1,187 75% 261
Government 63 5% 79 5% 16
Total 1,238 100% 1,582 100% 344
Note: Small-scale industrial is production like craftsman or artisans.
Determine Employment Land Needs

The final step in the projection is to determine the amount of employment land that is needed to
accommodate employment growth over the 2016 to 2036 period. Some employment will grow
in areas that do not result in additional employment land:
Government employment. The employment forecast in Exhibit 75 shows that

government employment will grow by 16 employees. We account for land needed to
accommodate government employment growth through analysis of public and semi-
public land needs, in Chapter 5.
Employment locating in residential plan designations. Some employment is currently
located in residential plan designations in Jacksonville in 2014:
o 26% of small-scale industrial employment (i.e., production such as craftsman or
artisans) is located in residential plan designations. This employment is mostly
small businesses, such as construction businesses, likely run out of the owners
home.
o No retail employment is located in residential plan designations.
o 15% of office and commercial service employment is located in residential plan
designations. These businesses are small businesses, such as financial
institutions, professional services, or nonprofit organizations.
We assume that the same percentage of employment will locate in residential plan designations.
Exhibit 76 shows that 48 of Jacksonvilles new employment will locate in residential plan
designations. Jacksonville will have 280 new employees requiring vacant employment land over
the 20-year period.
Exhibit 76. New employment locating in residential plan designations

and on vacant employment land,
OfficeJacksonville UGB, 2036 empirical evaluation of existing employment
15.0%
New New Emp.

Employment Emp. In Res. on Vacant
Land Use Type Growth Designations Land
Small-scale industrial 34 9 25
Retail Commercial 33 - 33
Office & Commercial Services 261 39 222
Total 328 48 280
Exhibit 77 shows demand for vacant (including partially vacant) land in Jacksonville over the
20-year period. The assumptions used in Exhibit 77 are:
Employment density. Exhibit 77 assumes the following number of employees per acre
(EPA): All employment types will have an average of 20 employees per.
Professors with the University of Oregons Planning, Public Policy, and Management
recently completed analysis of employment development for the Department of Land
Conservation and Development (DLCD) for all cities in Oregon.62 The analysis found
that commercial zoned land with development for all of the cities in Oregon included in
the analysis averaged a density of 17 EPA.
Exhibit 77 assumes that employment development in Jacksonville will be, on average,
slightly denser than the average for commercial development in Oregon cities. It also
assumes that small-scale industrial development will develop at densities similar to
commercial uses. This assumption is reasonable because small-scale industrial
development in Jacksonville is production such as craftsman or artisans, who typically
locate in buildings more like commercial buildings rather than traditional industrial
buildings.
Conversion from net-to-gross acres. The data about employment density is in net acres,
which does not include land for public right-of-way. Future land need for employment
should include land in tax lots needed for employment plus land needed for public
right-of-way. One way to estimate the amount of land needed for employment including
public right-of-way is to convert from net to gross acres based on assumptions about the
amount of land needed for right-of-way.63 A net to gross conversion is expressed as a
62This analysis was done for DLCDs UGB Streamlining project, which is in response to HB 2254. Additional
information about the project is available from:
http://www.oregon.gov/LCD/Pages/UGB-Streamlining.aspx
63OAR 660-024-0010(6) uses the following definition of net buildable acre. Net Buildable Acre consists of 43,560
square feet of residentially designated buildable land after excluding future rights-of-way for streets and roads.
percentage of gross acres that are in public right-of-way. Exhibit 77 uses a net-to-gross
conversion factor of 20% small-scale industrial and commercial development.
Using these assumptions, the forecasted growth of 280 new employees will result in the
following demand for vacant (and partially vacant) employment land: 2 gross acres of industrial
land, 16 gross acres of commercial land for retail and office services.
Exhibit 77. New employment locating in residential plan designations

and on vacant employment land, Jacksonville UGB, 2036
Land
New Emp. Employees Land Demand
on Vacant per Acre Demand (Gross
Land Use Type Land (Net Acres) (Net Acres) Acres)
Small-scale industrial 25 20 1 2
Retail Commercial 33 20 2 2
Office & Commercial Services 222 20 11 14
Total 280 14 18
While the administrative rule does not include a definition of a gross buildable acre, using the definition above, a
gross buildable acre will include areas used for rights-of-way for streets and roads. Areas used for rights-of-way are
considered unbuildable.
Jacksonvilles Economic Development Objectives
OAR 660-009-0020(1)(a) requires that communities state their overall objectives for economic
development in the planning area and identify categories or particular types of industrial and
other employment uses desired by the community. For Jacksonville, these objectives can be
briefly summarized:
Diversify Jacksonvilles economy. The Citys Comprehensive Plan and community

visioning exercise (Jacksonville Vision 2028) make it clear that an objective of the City is
to have a diverse economy.
Maintain Jacksonvilles livability. The City passed resolutions defining livability and
the importance of maintaining Jacksonvilles livability.64 Key components of
Jacksonvilles livability are preserving the Citys historic context and character,
managing growth, maintaining Jacksonvilles view shed, controlling development
density to maintain appropriate densities for Jacksonville, providing at least 8 acres of
flatland for active parks, and diversifying the Citys economy.
Mitigate the impacts of traffic. Jacksonvilles livability policies and development vision
describe concerns about traffic congestion, especially in truck traffic in downtown
Jacksonville. Where possible, economic development activities should result in actions
that decrease traffic congestion and promote transit orient development.
Promote tourism. The Citys policies identify tourism as a key economic development
strategy. Policies to support tourism include providing public facilities (e.g., attractive
parks, an information center, public restrooms, and parking and pedestrian facilities),
supporting special events like conferences and workshops, and encouraging specialized
businesses (e.g., as fine apparel stores, jewelry stores, toy stores, and others). Other
policies that support tourism are encouraging development of recreational industries
and secondary agricultural enterprises and supporting development of specialized
destination facilities to bring people into Jacksonville.
Potential Growth Industries

The types of businesses that may locate in Jacksonville may form business clusters, as described
above, or may occur independently. The types of businesses that may be attractive to
Jacksonville include:
Agricultural Products. Jackson Countys prime agricultural location gives Jacksonville a

good opportunity to develop an agricultural processing cluster. The processing of local
crops and the subsequent retail opportunities (e.g., Harry and Davids) presents a good
chance of this type of cluster forming. A possible niche for Jacksonville would be small-
scale production of high-quality food items. Possible businesses include: coffee roasting,
64 Resolutions 869 and 944 define the factors that are essential parts of Jacksonvilles livability.
candy making, baking, wine making and brewing, and preserving or processing fruit
and berries.
Historic Preservation. Jacksonvilles attention to detail about its history presents an
opportunity to specialize in businesses that produce historically-relevant goods. Some
examples include: furniture manufacturing, metal fabrication, and historic architecture.
Artisan Crafts and Arts. Relating closely to historic preservation, the fabrication of
traditional crafts and artisan pieces could enhance tourism in Jacksonville. Businesses in
Jacksonville could produce traditional goods or modern goods through historically-
accurate methods. Some examples of these businesses are: leather work (e.g., saddles or
boots), metal working, jewelry production, specialized apparel, making musical
instruments, quilting, glass works, pottery fine art, or sculpture.
Tourism. Jacksonvilles historic village character, location in the agricultural setting of
the Rogue Valley, the Britt Festival, and existing facilities and services for tourism
provide economic opportunities for Jacksonville. Some possible tourism-related
opportunities include:
o Overnight Accommodations. Tourism is much more profitable to a city when
the tourist stays overnight. According to a study conducted by Dean Runyan
Associates, overnight travel parties spent about $407 per trip on average in
Jackson County for 2014.65 Jacksonville has an opportunity to capture a greater
share of overnight visitors because of events in Jacksonville (e.g., the Britt) and
events and attractions throughout the Region (e.g., the Shakespeare Festival,
outdoor recreational activities, wineries, etc.) Possible businesses include: bed
and breakfasts, historically-themed lodging, or a hotel or cabins.
o Boutique Retail. Jacksonville currently has a number of specialty or boutique
shops. The City has the opportunity to develop additional specialty shops. These
shops may provide a retail outlet for specialty items produced in Jacksonville,
such as historic products, artisan crafts, or specialty food products. Boutique
shops may fit best into Jacksonvilles downtown, especially if the shops have a
clear connection with Jacksonvilles history.
o Agricultural tourism. This form of tourism is made possible by Jackson Countys
history of farming and existing agricultural base. Opportunities for agricultural
tourism rely on existing agricultural or food processing businesses and are often
coupled with organic farming. Agricultural tourism takes a number of forms:
educational experiences (e.g., cannery tours, cooking classes, or wine tasting),
entertainment (e.g., harvest festivals), or hospitality services (e.g., farm stays,
guided tours). Possible businesses include: winery tours, tours of food
production facilities, or guided tours of local farms or orchards.
65 The Economic Impacts of Travel in Oregon, Dean Runyan Associates, 2014
o Culinary tourism. Culinary tourism is the pursuit of unique and memorable
culinary experiences of all kinds.66 Culinary tourism can vary from simple
foods, commonly available foods (e.g., pastries or bread) to high-end restaurants,
as long as the food is unique and memorable. Culinary tourism can be enhanced
through use of locally produced foods, of which there are many in Jackson
County. Possible businesses include: bakeries, restaurants, or any other type of
business that sells high-quality food or beverages.
o Outdoor Recreation. Jacksonvilles proximity to outdoor recreational
opportunities, such as the Rogue River, Crater Lake, or Woodrat Mountain,
provide visitors with many opportunities for outdoor recreation. Potential
businesses in this cluster include: bicycle manufacturing and service, bike
touring, hang gliding, recreational apparel fabrication, fishing gear production,
recreational equipment fabrication.
o Performing Arts. The presence of the Britt Music Festival in Jacksonville, and
other local and regional performing arts groups, provide opportunities for
growing the performing arts in Jacksonville. Opportunities for growth in
performing arts include education, ranging from private lessons to the
development of a music or dance school, or performance companies.
Services for Existing Residents. As Jacksonville grows, the City will need to provide
services to existing and new residents. Examples of this are: community retail and
financial services, government (especially education), medical services, and services for
seniors. The challenge to providing these services to residents in Jacksonville is the cost
of land and commercial rent in Jacksonville.
66 Culinary Tourism Association Institute
5. Chapter 5. Land Sufficiency and
Conclusions
This chapter presents an evaluation of the sufficiency of vacant residential land in Jacksonville
to accommodate expected residential growth over the 2016-2036 period. This chapter includes
an estimate of residential development capacity (measured in new dwelling units) and an
estimate of Jacksonvilles ability to accommodate needed new housing units for the 2016-2036
period, based on the analysis in the housing needs analysis. The chapter also includes an
assessment of the sufficiency of Jacksonvilles employment land to accommodate employment
development. The chapter ends with a discussion of the conclusions and recommendations for
the housing needs analysis.
Framework for the Residential Capacity Analysis

The buildable lands inventory summarized in Chapter 2 provides a supply analysis (buildable
land by type), and Chapter 3 provided a housing demand analysis (population and growth
leading to demand for more residential development). The comparison of supply and demand
allows the determination of land sufficiency.
There are two ways to get estimates of supply and demand into common units of measurement
so that they can be compared: (1) housing demand can be converted into acres, or (2) residential
land supply can be converted into dwelling units. A complication of either approach is that not
all land has the same characteristics. Factors such as zone, slope, parcel size, and shape, can all
affect the ability of land to accommodate housing. Methods that recognize this fact are more
robust and produce more realistic results. This analysis uses the second approach: it estimates
the ability of vacant residential lands within the UGB to accommodate new housing. This
analysis, sometimes called a capacity analysis, can be used to evaluate different ways that
vacant residential land may build out by applying different assumptions.
Jacksonville Capacity Analysis Results

The capacity analysis estimates the development potential of vacant residential land to
accommodate new housing based on the needed densities by the housing type categories
shown in Exhibit 78.
Exhibit 78 shows that Jacksonvilles 255 acres of vacant residential land has capacity to
accommodate approximately between 203 and 415 new dwelling units, based on the following
assumptions:
Buildable residential land. The capacity estimates start with the number of
buildable acres in residential Zone based on the analysis in Chapter 2. The acres of
buildable/suitable residential land shown in Exhibit 78 excludes developed, public,
and undevelopable land.
Future densities. The capacity analysis assumes development will occur at the
densities shown Exhibit 78. These densities are consistent with the development
densities allowed in Jacksonvilles zoning code by zone.
Note to reviewers: The densities allowed in Hillside Residential and Border Residential
zones are below the thresholds of what is considered urban density for areas within an
Urban Growth Boundary. The buildable land in HR and BR in Exhibit 78 is on slopes of less
than 25% and considered buildable.
While residential development on sloped land (e.g., land with a slope of 10% to 25%) is
generally lower density than on flat land, residential development is not typically as low
density at the densities allowed in Jacksonvilles zoning code.
If Jacksonville allowed densities above 2 or 3 dwelling units per acre on HR and BR land,
the City would have a surplus of capacity for single-family housing.
Given the small supply of Multi-Family Residential land (1 acre), the City will have a deficit
of land for multifamily housing.
This issue will be discussed in more detail at the August City Council meeting.
Exhibit 78. Estimated housing development potential on vacant residential lands, number of
dwelling units,
Residential TotalJacksonville UGB
Potential
Density (dwelling capacity
Buildable/
unit/acre) (dwelling units)
Suitable
Zone Acres Low High Low High
Hillside Residential (HR) 173
Hillside Residential - 0.5 27 1.0 2.0 27 54
Hillside Residential - 1 90 0.5 1.0 44 89
Single Family Residential (SFR) 42 - -
Single Family Residential - 10 8 2.2 4.4 16 33
Border Residential (BR) 29 - -
Border Residential - 0.5 2 1.0 2.0 1 3
Border Residential - 1 27 0.5 1.0 13 27
Border Residential - 5 0 0.1 0.2 - -
Planning Unit Development (PUD) 6 1.0 2.0 6 12
Rural Residential (RR) (RR-5) 3 0.1 0.2 - -
Multi-Family Residential (MFR) 1 9.0 18.0 7 15
Total 255 0.8 1.6 203 415
Source: by ECONorthwest
Note: DU is dwelling unit.
Land Sufficiency
This section presents the analysis of land sufficiency within Jacksonvilles UGB for residential
and employment land.
Residential Land Sufficiency

Note to Reviewers: This analysis will be completed after discussion of development
densities allowed in the HR and BR zones.
Employment Land Sufficiency

Exhibit 79 shows employment land sufficiency within the Jacksonville UGB. It shows:
Vacant and Partially Vacant Unconstrained Land from Exhibit 5 for land within UGB.
Exhibit 79 shows that Jacksonville has 0.2 gross acres of artisan land (equated with
small-scale industrial) and 2.6 gross acres of commercial land.
Demand for Commercial and Industrial Land from Exhibit 77. Exhibit 79 shows
Jacksonville will need a total of 1.6 gross acres for small-scale industrial uses and 15.9
gross acres for commercial uses over the 2016-2036 period.
Exhibit 79 shows that Jacksonville has:
1.6 acre deficit of small-scale industrial land.

13.4 acre deficit of commercial land.
Exhibit 79. Comparison of the Capacity of Unconstrained Vacant and Partially Vacant Land with
Employment Land Demand by Plan Designation, Jacksonville UGB, 20162036
Land Supply Land
(Suitable Demand Land
Vacant Gross (Gross Sufficiency
Land Use Type Acres) Acres) (Deficit)
Small-scale industrial 0.2 1.6 (1.4)
Commercial 2.6 15.9 (13.4)
Conclusions and Recommendations
Note to Reviewers:
At this point, the key conclusions of the study are:
The Citys residential densities for HR and BR are below urban residential densities. At
typical residential densities, which may be a minimum of three dwelling units per acre on
lands with slope between 5% and 25%, Jacksonville will have a surplus of capacity for
single-family detached housing.
Jacksonville will, however have a deficit of land for multifamily housing and may have a
deficit of land for single-family attached housing (e.g., townhouses).
The City has a small deficit of employment land.
The section will be completed on the next revision of the study.

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City of Jacksonville

Housing Needs Analysis and

Purpose and Methods

5. Estimate the number of additional needed units by structure type.

Data used in this analysis

Organization of this Report

2. Deducting land with development constraints

3. Developing tabular summaries of lands by classification and plan designation

4. Estimating land holding capacity in terms of dwellings and employees

Residential and Other Non-employment Lands

Commercial and Industrial Lands

Definitions and Assumptions

Commercial and Industrial Lands

(a) Is severely constrained by natural hazards as determined under Statewide Planning

(c) Has slopes of 25 percent or greater;

(d) Is within the 100-year flood plain; or

(e) Cannot be provided with public facilities.

Commercial and Industrial Land

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

Developed Partially Vacant Vacant Public Undevelopable

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

Improved Constrained Buildable

Source: ECONorthwest analysis of City of Jacksonville GIS data

Source: ECONorthwest analysis of City of Jacksonville GIS data

Source: ECONorthwest analysis of City of Jacksonville GIS data

Source: ECONorthwest analysis of City of Jacksonville GIS data

This section shows the following trends in housing mix in Jacksonville:

About 84% of Exhibit 10. Housing Mix, 2009-13

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

2010 70% 30%

2009-13 70% 30%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Single-family detached Multifamily

Jacksonville has four Exhibit 19. Inventory of Mobile/Manufactured Home Parks,

Demographic and socioeconomic factors affecting housing choice7

12State of Oregon Consolidated Plan 2011 to 2015.

Since 1990, Jacksons Exhibit 22. Population, Jacksonville, 1990 - 2014

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000

From 1990 to 2014, Exhibit 23. Population Growth, 1990 - 2014

If Jacksonvilles population continues to age, consistent with regional and national

2013 60.2 42.5

home and community as they age. See http://www.aarp.org/research.

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%

Jacksonvilles average Exhibit 31. Average Household Size, 2009-13

Jacksonville has a Exhibit 32. Household Composition, 2013

County and Oregon. Only 80%

20% 27% 26%

In the 2009-13 period, Exhibit 33. Median Household Income, 2009-13

In the 2009-13 period, Exhibit 34. Median Family Income, 2009-13

$0 $20,000 $40,000 $60,000

Jacksonville has a Exhibit 36. Educational Attainment, 2009-13

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Jacksonville is part of Exhibit 37. Commuting Flows, Jacksonville, 2013

Commute time (minutes)

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

Changes in housing costs

Jacksonvilles median Exhibit 41. Median Home Sale Price, 2015

Median contract rent in Exhibit 46. Median Contract Rent, 2009-13

pay $1,250 or more. $1000 to $1249

Less than $400

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

0% 20% 40% 60%

EcoNorthwest's Jacksonville Housing Study

EcoNorthwest's Jacksonville Housing Study