P1: GMX

Journal of Archaeological Method and Theory [jamt] PP140-302146 April 20, 2001 18:54 Style file version Nov. 19th, 1999

Journal of Archaeological Method and Theory, Vol. 8, No. 2, 2001

The Archaeology of El Nino Events and Other

Natural Disasters
Mary Van Buren1

Archaeological research on disasters has increased substantially since Sheetss

1980 review of the topic, and with heightened media coverage and funding for
the study of such events, archaeological interest will continue to grow. This paper
examines how prehistorians have incorporated disasters into their research since
1980, using the literature on El Nino as an illustrative case, and assesses this work
in relation to geographical approaches to disaster as well as concepts that have
been developed within the new ecologies.
KEY WORDS: El Nino; hazard research; prehistory; political ecology.

INTRODUCTION

Natural disasters have been part of the explanatory repertoire of prehistorians

since the inception of the field, but systematic investigation of such events began
only a few decades ago with widespread interest in human ecology. Since then,
disasters have been increasingly invoked as the cause of social transformations,
most notably the rise and collapse of complex societies. As media coverage and
funding for the study of disasters grow, archaeological interest in these phenomena
can be expected to increase. How, then, should natural disasters be incorporated
into archaeological thinking about social change? This paper addresses the issue by
first providing a brief overview of research on disasters in contemporary societies
and then examining the ways in which prehistorians incorporate them into their
arguments, using the literature on El Nino events in prehistory as an illustrative
case. While the direct impact of El Nino is limited to the western coast of South
America, it provides a critical case study which sheds light on some of the problems
as well as the potential of archaeological hazard research. This is followed by a
1 Department
of Anthropology, Colorado State University, Ft. Collins, Colorado 80523; e-mail:
mvanbure@lamar.colostate.edu.

129

1072-5369/01/0600-0129$19.50/0
C 2001 Plenum Publishing Corporation
P1: GMX
Journal of Archaeological Method and Theory [jamt] PP140-302146 April 20, 2001 18:54 Style file version Nov. 19th, 1999

130 Van Buren

discussion of the challenges faced by archaeologists in their attempts to understand

the role played by natural disasters in past societies, and the ways in which concepts
derived from geographic hazard research and the new ecologies (Biersack, 1999)
might aid in meeting them.

STUDYING NATURAL DISASTERS IN

CONTEMPORARY POPULATIONS

Systematic archaeological studies of disasters are quite recent relative to the

much longer history of investigation in other disciplines, which commenced in
the early twentieth century. Familiarity with research on natural disasters among
contemporary populations is critical for archaeologists with an interest in the topic
because a great deal of useful information has already been generated. The purpose
of the brief consideration of the field presented here, however, is to gain insight into
some of the conceptual issues and problems that characterize this research domain.
The study of natural disasters is multidisciplinary, involving scholars from
fields as diverse as meteorology and psychology, but rarely has it been interdisci-
plinary or collaborative. Alexander (1997, p. 289) identifies roughly 30 academic
disciplines that are involved in disaster research, many of which are characterized
by different conceptions of the relationship between humans and nature (Palm,
1990). Geography is one of the most important arenas in which disaster research
has been conducted, and this scholarship is of the greatest relevance to archaeology,
in large part because of its focus on the relationship between human populations
and the environment. It will be the subject of the discussion below, which is based
primarily on Alexanders 1995 and 1997 reviews of the field.
Systematic geographical research on natural disasters began in the 1920s,
and was well established by the 1940s with the work of White and others who
were primarily interested in understanding hazard perception and mitigation in the
United States. During the first few decades of research, disasters were regarded as
extreme phenomena generated by natural forces that were entirely independent of
human societies. However, important changes in geographical conceptualizations
of disaster have occurred over the last 80 years. Investigators recognized that dis-
asters occur only in relation to human well-being and thus must be defined in terms
of their impact on people, a view that was codified by Burton and his colleagues
in their 1978 volume. Two key concepts emerged from this perspective that have
been incorporated into most work on the topic: the difference between hazard and
disaster, and the notion of vulnerability. The first distinction separates an environ-
mental threat to a population from an actual catastrophic event, which potentially
could be mitigated or avoided by human action. Environmental hazards can be
natural events caused by climatic and geological processes such as earthquakes,
tornadoes, and volcanic eruptions, or technological, such as releases of toxic
waste or the detonation of nuclear weapons. A disaster entails a large-scale loss of
P1: GMX
Journal of Archaeological Method and Theory [jamt] PP140-302146 April 20, 2001 18:54 Style file version Nov. 19th, 1999

The Archaeology of El Nino Events and Other Natural Disasters 131

life, property, or livelihood, sometimes more broadly defined as an acute disruption

of a socioeconomic system (Alexander, 1997, p. 289). The relatively rapid onset
of a disaster distinguishes it from other forms of environmental change, although
the two processes often form a continuum.
The second concept, vulnerability, is defined as the characteristics of individ-
uals or groups that affect their ability to anticipate, contend with, and recover from
a disaster (Blaikie et al., 1994, p. 9). The consequences of a disaster, then, are de-
termined by both the nature of the hazard and the characteristics of the population
at risk. Such a conception is far removed from a notion of linear causality in which
a natural event generated by the environment impinges upon a human community;
in fact, the idea of vulnerability has formed the platform for a more recent radi-
cal critique of disaster studies that reverses traditional notions of causality. This
shift in thinking emerged in the early 1980s with the work of Hewitt (1983) and
was subsequently elaborated by Wisner (1993), Blaikie et al. (1994), as well as
others. These scholars focused on the social, political, and, particularly, economic
causes of vulnerability and redefined disasters as the consequence of the poverty
generated by global capitalism. Such a reconceptualization allowed them to ex-
plain the current distribution of disasterswhich occur with greatest frequency
and loss of life in Africa and Asiaas the result of underdevelopment rather than
the natural distribution of environmental hazards. On a more general level, it re-
focuses attention from the exceptional event to the everyday dynamics of society.
As Hewitt argued natural disaster, its causes, internal features and consequences
are not explained by conditions or behavior peculiar to calamitous events. Rather
they are seen to depend upon the ongoing social order, its everyday relations to the
habitat and the larger historical circumstances that shape or frustrate these matters
(Hewitt, 1983, p. 25, quoted in Varley, 1994, p. 2). This approach is closely tied to
the development of the new ecologies, a set of perspectives that have emerged
in ecology, geography, and anthropology, among other fields, and which share an
interest in the complex, historically constituted interaction between humans and
their environments.
However, despite this reconceptualization of the relationship between the
environment and human societies, which geographers have embraced to varying
degrees, members of the discipline still regularly complain about two related and
persistent problems that affect the field of disaster studies: the overwhelming dom-
inance of technological and physical science research and the relative poverty of
theory. Research, mitigation efforts, and policy development have remained largely
devoted to an approach that privileges the physical sciences and views solutions
in terms of the application of scientific information and technology. Few mul-
tidisciplinary programs that foster the integration of physical and social science
perspectives have been developed, and 95% of disaster research funding is dedi-
cated to the physical and technological sciences (Alexander, 1995). The practical
need for integrated work is suggested by statistics on disaster fatalities which have
been steadily rising during this century (Oliver-Smith, 1986) despite the massive
P1: GMX
Journal of Archaeological Method and Theory [jamt] PP140-302146 April 20, 2001 18:54 Style file version Nov. 19th, 1999

132 Van Buren

increase in hard science research. Alexander suggests that this situation is due to
the temporal precedence of the physical over the social sciences, with the former
developing as academic disciplines a century or so earlier than the latter. However,
Western belief in technological progress, the relative ease with which technical
problems can be diagnosed and solved relative to issues such as global economic
inequity, and more effective lobbying by the physical sciences for research funds
are probably more important causes.
The paucity of theory in disaster studies is another issue that many scholars
believe is inhibiting the development of disaster research. This may be attributed,
in part, to the devastating effects of disasters that have generated much practical,
applied work in an attempt to alleviate immediate suffering. However, it is also tied
to the disciplinary structure of the field as described above. Theory developed in
the physical and technological sciences is notand was not meant to beuseful
for the understanding of social phenomena.
This nexus of issues in disaster researchconceptualizing the relationship
between humans and nature, the predominance of physical and technological
approaches, and the impoverishment of theoryare intimately related and probably
cannot be resolved in isolation. To what extent do these themes characterize
archaeological studies of disaster? What progress are archaeologists making on
these fronts?

ARCHAEOLOGICAL STUDIES OF DISASTER

In 1980 Sheets published a review of archaeological disaster research in which

he documented the different sorts of natural disasters that archaeologists had exam-
ined in the field and traced changes in the general approach to such events. In his ex-
amination of research on the third century A.D. eruption of Ilopango in El Salvador
as well as other prehistoric disasters, Sheets foundnot unexpectedlythat such
investigations tended to be shaped by prevailing theoretical and methodological
interests. In general, earlier work was characterized by the incidental recognition
of specific disasters and a strong focus on single sites, interest in ash falls and
other traces for purely chronological reasons, and the poor integration of physical
scientists into the research process; almost no attention was directed to the social
repercussions of such events. A number of changes resulted from the shift that
occurred in archaeology during the 1960s, most important among them being the
explicit use of human ecology as a theoretical framework for understanding the
impact of disasters, as well as the incorporation of physical scientists in inter-
disciplinary teams. However, theoretically grounded, regionally focused research
projects specifically designed to examine the effects of disasters, such as Sheetss
own research on the effects of the Ilopango eruption (Sheets, 1979), remained
rare. Generally, archaeologists continued to approach disasters in an ad hoc fash-
ion and to ignore the burgeoning literature on hazards that was being produced
P1: GMX
Journal of Archaeological Method and Theory [jamt] PP140-302146 April 20, 2001 18:54 Style file version Nov. 19th, 1999

The Archaeology of El Nino Events and Other Natural Disasters 133

by investigators in other branches of social science. In the introduction to his

monograph, Sheets (1980, p. 1) characterized the field in the following way:
Archeological literature is almost devoid of disaster research conducted on a social science
basis. That is not because disasters are unknown archeologically; as can be seen below, the
literature of prehistory is replete with cases of disasters. What archeology has contributed
so far is empirical and largely incidental. Past disasters are described in the archeologi-
cal literature on a case by case basis when they have been encountered and recognized
in site excavation or survey. Almost no projects have been directed at a disaster and its
repercussions.

In conjunction with the perspective offered by hazard research discussed earlier,

Sheetss assessment of the field provides a baseline against which current archaeo-
logical approaches to disaster can be evaluated. This will be accomplished through
an examination of the literature on the impact of El Nino events on prehistoric
societies, a body of work that parallels, in many regards, archaeological research
on other types of disaster.

El Nino and Its Effects

El Nino was first recognized as a periodic warming of ocean surface waters

that occurs along the north coast of Peru, usually appearing around Christmas.
During these episodes, the cold, nutrient-rich waters off the coast are overlain by
warmer, nutrient-poor waters; severe events generate precipitation in the normally
hyperarid coastal desert and a sharp decline in many of the species that usually
inhabit the littoral. In the most extreme instances, torrential rains cause flooding
and mass-wasting on the north coast, destroying houses, roads, and agricultural
fields in the process. Assessing the frequency, intensity, and scale of El Nino events
is of great interest to meteorologists and planners, but because of the variability
displayed by such episodes, average cycles are difficult to describe. The geo-
graphic area affected varies in size, as do the environmental consequences. Quinn
et al. (1987) ranked events known from historical and contemporary records from
very weak to very strong, as measured by changes in sea surface temperature,
the quantity of precipitation and flooding, the mortality of marine organisms, and
the level of impact on human populations, among other variables. According to
their analysis, the mean interval between all El Nino episodes characterized as
moderate, strong, and very strong is 3.8 years; since 1800 very strong events have
occurred, on average, every 38 years. In addition to differences among El Nino
episodes, rainfall and flooding vary among coastal drainages during the same event
(Caviedes and Waylen, 1987).
In the 1960s scientists discovered that the El Nino cycle was not merely
a local phenomenon, but was related to meteorological and oceanographic shifts
throughout the tropical Pacific. During normal years the trade winds blow surface
waters to the west, lowering the sea level in the eastern Pacific and allowing
the upwelling of cold water along the Peruvian coast. For reasons that are still
P1: GMX
Journal of Archaeological Method and Theory [jamt] PP140-302146 April 20, 2001 18:54 Style file version Nov. 19th, 1999

134 Van Buren

being debated, these winds slacken during El Nino episodes, which causes warm
surface waters to move eastward, inhibiting upwelling and generating rain along
the western shore of equatorial South America. Bjerknes (1966a,b) recognized that
these changes in sea surface temperatures were related to the Southern Oscillation,
a see-sawing of atmospheric pressure between the southeastern Pacific and the area
around northern Australia and Indonesia that was identified by Walker in the early
twentieth century. El Nino events tend to occur when the Southern Oscillation
Indexcalculated as the atmospheric pressure in Tahiti minus the atmospheric
pressure in Darwin, Australiais negative. The term El Nino-Southern Oscillation
(ENSO) is now used to refer to this broader oceanographic-atmospheric process
(see Enfield, 1989; Glantz, 1996 for the history of research on these phenomena,
as well as detailed descriptions of ENSO).
Walker also identified statistical correlations between the Southern Oscilla-
tion and climatic anomalies in other parts of the world, work that was initially
dismissed but has since formed the basis for examining meteorological patterns
on a global scale. The study of such teleconnections has accelerated over the
last decade, fueled by interest in global climate change as well as technological
advances that facilitate the study of worldwide phenomena. While many such rela-
tionships have been posited, scientists often disagree about the causes and strength
of the associations.
Over the last 30 years both public awareness and funding have increased
with each of the severe ENSO events that occurred in 19721973, 19821983,
and 19971998. While most people in the United States had probably never heard
of El Nino in the 1970s, 74% of the respondents in a 1998 poll conducted for
CNN-Time believed that the area in which they lived had been affected by it
(CNN-Time, 1998), probably because the exceptionally strong 19971998 event
was covered intensively by the media and cited as the cause of almost all inclement
weather and associated ills. Interest in El Nino, though, appears to be related to a
broader concern with natural disasters, as reflected by such diverse phenomena as a
National Geographic photographic spread on the topic, the recent spate of movies
featuring tornados and asteroids, and the designation of the years 19902000 as
the U.N. International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction.
Climatologists have also suggested that heightened El Nino intensity is linked
to global climate change, another issue that has generated well-funded research
programs and broad popular interest. Boehmer-Christiansens analysis of the po-
litical economy of research on climate change reveals the self-perpetuating nature
of the relationship between politics and scientists (Boehmer-Christiansen, 1999);
the research community lobbies to promote its own research agendas, and the of-
ten ambiguous results it produces are used to advance political agendas in which
decisive action on environmental issues can be avoided. Research efforts directed
at understanding, predicting, and analyzing the effects of climatic phenomena,
including ENSO activity, have thus accelerated, and while most are conducted by
P1: GMX
Journal of Archaeological Method and Theory [jamt] PP140-302146 April 20, 2001 18:54 Style file version Nov. 19th, 1999

The Archaeology of El Nino Events and Other Natural Disasters 135

physical scientists, a number of social scientists, such as Glantz of the National

Center for Atmospheric Research and Caviedes, a geographer at the University
of Florida, have written extensively on the topic (Caviedes, 1975, 1984a,b, 1985;
Glantz, 1981, 1987, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997; Glantz et al., 1991). While limited in
comparison to the physical sciences and often shaped by their links to them, some
important funding opportunities for studying the relationship between humans and
climatic processes such as El Nino have become available. For instance, 3 of the
11 funding initiatives in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administrations
Climate and Global Change Program target research on various aspects of the
relationship between humans and climate, including ENSO.

The Study of Prehistoric El Nino Events

Research on prehistoric ENSO events has certainly increased during this pe-
riod as well, but archaeological consideration of El Nino preceded the enormous
surge in public awareness and funding by several years. Interest in El Nino co-
incided with the adoption of human ecology by archaeologists in the late 1960s
and early 1970s; this cyclical climatic phenomenon was viewed as another aspect
of the environment that had to be taken into account in the assessment of pre-
historic coastal adaptations (e.g., Moseley, 1975; Osborn, 1977; Parsons, 1970;
Richardson, 1978). Two of the earliest scholars to address this issue were Parsons
and Moseley who considered El Nino effects on late Preceramic societies on the
north coast of Peru, which combined intensive exploitation of marine resources with
horticulture. Parsons (1970) was the first to explicitly consider this issue. Earlier,
Lanning (1963) had proposed that a major climatic change had occurred around
3000 B.C. and resulted in the dessication of the ephemeral fog meadows that develop
on coastal hills during the winter months. Drawing on the geological work of Craig
and Psuty (1968), Parsons argued against this model of climate change, and con-
tended that El Nino events had been a recurrent feature of the regions climate since
the end of the Pleistocene. She interpreted the apparent reduction in fog meadows
noted by Lanning as the result of meadow expansion during extreme El Nino events
followed by rapid contraction; during severe El Nino episodes populations that nor-
mally relied heavily on marine resources would instead intensify their exploitation
of the increased terrestrial resources generated by El Nino rains. In Parsonss view
El Nino episodes constituted an ongoing cyclical disruption of environmental equi-
librium that posed a challenge to which populations successfully adapted, but one
which prevented them from relying completely on littoral resources.
In The Maritime Foundations of Andean Civilization (Moseley, 1975),
Moseley contended that the earliest development of social complexity on the north
coast was based on a subsistence system devoted primarily to marine foods. This ar-
gument, termed the maritime hypothesis depended on demonstrating that aquatic
P1: GMX
Journal of Archaeological Method and Theory [jamt] PP140-302146 April 20, 2001 18:54 Style file version Nov. 19th, 1999

136 Van Buren

resources were both abundant and stable enough to sustain large sedentary commu-
nities. He thus acknowledged the disruption caused by extreme El Nino episodes,
but unlike Parsons discounted their effects on Preceramic societies, arguing that

In theory, macrocyclic variation could have been an important factor, but the possible
economic impact of el nino is difficult to assess. It seems early subsistence patterns could
have been significantly affected only by current disruptions of exceptional magnitude, and
these are very rare events. The archaeological record, as it now stands, reveals no obvious
impact from ninos, and in fact, the record reflects progressive population growth during the
Cotton Preceramic Stage. This suggests macrocyclic variation in the temporal availability
of marine resources was not consequential as a demographic leveling device. (Moseley,
1975, p. 46)

Since the 1970s two parallel and related bodies of research on the role of ENSO
events in prehistory have developed. Richardson, Sandweiss, and their coworkers
have continued the examination of Preceramic coastal societies that engaged in
foraging and horticulture. One of the primary themes of these investigations is
the identification of mid-Holocene environmental change, especially the onset of
conditions that generate El Nino events; ENSO cycles are regarded by some of
these researchers as a potential factor in the emergence of social complexity around
5000 B.P. On the other hand, Moseley and his colleagues have focused on later,
socially complex societies occupying the coast, particularly the Moche and Chimu,
and have generally viewed extreme El Nino events as potential explanations for
agrarian and political collapse.
Research on Preceramic El Nino episodes has been closely tied to paleoenvi-
ronmental reconstruction and has involved much interdisciplinary cooperation, as
well as debate, among archaeologists and geologists. One of the primary issues in
this research domain is the assessment of Holocene climatic change. Since coastal
climate is strongly influenced by offshore currents, dating the onset of contempo-
rary oceanographic conditions is a critical research goal. Richardson, Sandweiss,
and their colleagues argue that contemporary conditions have prevailed only since
about 5000 B.P. and provide malacological and geological evidence for a 400 km
shift northward of the cold Humboldt current at this date, a displacement that
Lanning had suggested in the 1960s (Lanning, 1963; Richardson, 1981, 1983;
Rollins et al., 1986; Sandweiss et al., 1996). Such a reconstruction implies that
marine resources were poorer and El Nino events nonexistent prior to 5000 B.P.
Others, notably Wells (1987, 1990), have argued, instead, that geological evidence
for El Nino episodes can be dated to as far back as the terminal Pleistocene.
This debate has important implications for the reconstruction of Preceramic
subsistence patterns, particularly in light of the controversy over the maritime hy-
pothesis proposed by Moseley in 1975. In fact, Sandweiss (1986) and Sandweiss
et al. (1996) have suggested that the onset of the contemporary ENSO cycle ini-
tiated the development of social complexity on the north coast. Osborn (1977)
proposed a similar explanation in his model for the initial exploitation of marine
resources in Peru. While he believed that the Holocene environment had remained
P1: GMX
Journal of Archaeological Method and Theory [jamt] PP140-302146 April 20, 2001 18:54 Style file version Nov. 19th, 1999

The Archaeology of El Nino Events and Other Natural Disasters 137

stable, he suggested that once people had been pushed into the use of aquatic re-
sources by population pressure, the periodic shortages generated by El Nino events
caused the development of social complexity by stimulating resource management,
specifically the storage and redistribution of food and other necessities. This would
account for the distribution of early complex societies along the northern Peruvian
coast, which coincides with the zone most severely affected by El Nino episodes.
More recently Sandweiss and his coauthors (Sandweiss et al., 1999) have
argued that variability in climate during the mid-Holocene, including the onset of
ENSO after about 5800 B.P., is correlated with cultural change around the world
and may be causally related to it. They cite evidence presented at a recent FERCO
International Conference on Climate and Culture at 3000 B.C. that suggests a tem-
poral relationship between climate change and processes such as urbanization in
China, the construction of pyramids in Egypt, and the building of temple mounds in
coastal Peru, most of which reflect increasing social complexity. No arguments are
offered, nor evidence presented, regarding the linkages between climate and social
change, and the authors rightly note that the nature of the relationship is unclear.
The actual consequences of El Nino events for prehistoric populations have
been explored in more detail by researchers working on later, complex societies on
the north coast of Peru. Moseleys characterization of the effects of ENSO episodes
on these states contrasts with his earlier treatment of the phenomenon, and, in fact,
he has become one of the strongest proponents of research on the subject both
in terms of his own investigations and his influence on a younger generation of
scholars. The shift in his thinking is probably attributable to a number of factors,
including an increase in scientific information about and interest in El Nino cycles,
the fact that the Moche and Chimu were complex societies that relied on irrigation
technology that was vulnerable to ENSO effects, and the recognition of prehistoric
El Nino events in the archaeological record.
The initial investigation of ENSO episodes by Moseley and his colleagues
(Moseley et al., 1981, 1983; Nials et al., 1979a,b) was conducted under the aus-
pices of the Chicago Field Museums Programa Riego Antiguo that was in place
from 1976 to 1979. The research on El Nino was shaped by a general commitment
to human ecology as well as a specific question that emerged from the examina-
tion of ancient irrigation systems in the Moche and Chicama Valleys: Why had the
area under cultivation contracted by 3040% over the last millennium? Integrat-
ing hydrological, geological, and archaeological data, Moseley and his coauthors
developed a model of agrarian collapse that involved the gradual down cutting of
river beds due to ongoing geological uplift, punctuated by episodes of destabi-
lization caused by earthquakes and massive erosion generated by El Nino events.
The net result would be the continual contraction of irrigable lands and occasional
instances of rapid, El Nino induced destruction of agricultural infrastructure. The
archaeological record revealed flood deposits and architectural damage that were
attributed to two specific ENSO events that had broader social implications: one,
dated to approximately A.D. 600, apparently destroyed much of the Moche capital
P1: GMX
Journal of Archaeological Method and Theory [jamt] PP140-302146 April 20, 2001 18:54 Style file version Nov. 19th, 1999

138 Van Buren

and was later deemed responsible for the citys abandonment as well as the col-
lapse of the Moche empire (Moseley and Richardson, 1992). The second event
occurred about A.D. 1100 (Nials et al., 1979a), and Moseley (1990) and others
(e.g., Craig and Shimada, 1986; Donnan, 1990; Shimada, 1990), have related it to
the 30 day flood that was associated with the fall of the Naymlap dynasty and the
incursion of the Chimu into the Lambayeque Valley as reported in Colonial oral
histories. Flood deposits in the Moche and Casma Valleys have also been dated to
approximately A.D. 1300 (Pozorski, 1987; Wells, 1990), and, according to Moseley
(personal communication 1999) may reflect either a well dated episode called the
Miraflores event that occurred in A.D. 1360 or ENSO activity that occurred at some
time between A.D. 1100 and 1360.
The focus of Programa Riego Antiguo was clearly on the interface between
humans and the physical world, the technology that allowed them to adapt to
an Andean environment that was characterized as exceptionally prone to natural
disasters. That the authors view such hazards as being intertwined with human
activity is reflected in the discursive context of these publications: a number of
them conclude with a commentary regarding the value of contemporary indigenous
adaptations and the foolishness of building crises into the environment through the
application of inappropriate western technology such as the construction of large
dams (Moseley et al., 1981, 1983; see also Moseley, 1999). In a detailed exposition
of the relationship between tectonics and agrarian collapse, Moseley (1983, p. 794)
even states explicitly that
Earth movements can never replace human causality or social explanation of a cultural col-
lapse, any more than glaciation in and of itself can explain the Pleistocene archaeological
record. In this vein, the hypothesis of agrarian collapse is not intended to be an exercise
in environmental causality. Rather, it is an exposition of mechanical principles underlying
changing hydrological regimes that agricultural endeavors must adjust to.

Thus, while geological determinism is clearly rejected, research on the relationship

between El Nino events and agrarian collapse on the north coast is heavily weighted
toward identifying and modeling the effects of ENSO and other environmental con-
ditions on irrigation systems; intervening processesthe linkages between El Nino
episodes and social changeare not systematically examined. While two such
linkages have been suggested by these authors, famine (Nials et al., 1979a) and a
crisis of faith in the prevailing politicoreligious leadership (Moseley, 1990), nei-
ther their archaeological correlates nor the information needed to adequately model
them have been investigated. In fact, Moseley (1983, p. 779) argues that . . . social
causality can never be proven until all potential sources of natural causality are first
disproven. To proceed otherwise would be to confuse things that behave according
to physical principles with things that behave according to social norms.
The initial examination of prehistoric ENSO episodes on the north coast has
informed the work of a number of other scholars who have become involved in such
research to varying degrees. For instance, Craig and Shimada (1986) and Donnan
P1: GMX
Journal of Archaeological Method and Theory [jamt] PP140-302146 April 20, 2001 18:54 Style file version Nov. 19th, 1999

The Archaeology of El Nino Events and Other Natural Disasters 139

(1986) have recognized archaeological traces of ENSO events at the eleventh

century A.D. sites of Batan Grande and Pacatnamu, respectively. Burger (1988,
pp. 141, 142), on the other hand, has suggested that an extreme El Nino may have
triggered the development of the Chavn phenomenon at the end of the Initial Pe-
riod. In his scenario such an event, followed by a period of climatic deterioration,
may have destabilized coastal polities along with the highland communities with
which they interacted, leading to the emergence and spread of a crisis cult that
archaeologists recognize as the Chavn horizon. Burger is careful to add, how-
ever, that internal contradictions within these societies, and not solely externally
generated environmental perturbations, would have to be understood in order to
fully account for these developments.
Thus far the only attempt to actually trace the response of a prehistoric state
to a specific El Nino episode is Moores examination of the fourteenth century A.D.
site of Quebrada Santa Cristina in the Casma Valley (Moore, 1991). On the basis
of warm-water mollusk remains that suggest occupation immediately following an
El Nino event, as well as the nature of the artifact assemblage and proximity to
agricultural fields, Moore argues that this settlement was established by the Chimu
state in order to reclaim flooded and waterlogged land. In a discussion of state re-
sponses to ENSO conditions, he contends that in addition to expansion into adja-
cent valleys and the reconstruction of canals, the Chimu apparently created raised
fields to augment productivity while they repaired the agricultural infrastructure
damaged by El Nino flooding. In addition, Moores data indicate that the workers
who occupied the site continued to rely heavily on maritime resourcesalthough
they consumed different species than did populations prior to the eventinstead of
switching to terrestrial foods. Rather than emphasizing the wholesale destruction
caused by an ENSO-related disaster, this perspective sheds light on the range of
responses employed by the Chimu state to contend with such an event and suggests
a greater level of flexibility on the part of prehistoric populations than do earlier
studies.
The most detailed investigations of the effects of extreme El Nino events
on prehistoric agriculturalists are reported in three dissertations produced by doc-
toral students working on the south coast of Peru under the auspices of Programa
Contisuyu. While adopting very different perspectives and methods, all three con-
sider the effects of the Miraflores event, which was caused by ENSO-generated
debris flows and destroyed the Chiribaya settlement of Miraflores as well as other
sites in the lower Moquegua drainage at about A.D. 1350.
Satterlees primary goal is to ascertain the magnitude of the Miraflores event
and to determine if it caused the demise of Chiribaya culture (Satterlee, 1993).
His investigation focuses on the physical impact of the debris flow on irrigation
systems and settlements, and his data are primarily geological in nature. Neither the
literature on contemporary hazards nor broader theoretical concepts drawn from
the social sciences are addressed, and while he touches on some aspects of culture
P1: GMX
Journal of Archaeological Method and Theory [jamt] PP140-302146 April 20, 2001 18:54 Style file version Nov. 19th, 1999

140 Van Buren

change that resulted from the event, he generally characterizes the disaster as being
of such cataclysmic proportions that cultural extinction was nearly inevitable.
Satterlee notes, however, that some evidence for rebuilding was uncovered, and
suggests further investigation of the surviving population, a topic that Reycraft
pursued in his dissertation just a few years later.
Reycraft (1998) is one of the few archaeologists who explicitly employs con-
cepts developed by hazard researchers to understand the effects of an extreme
El Nino event on a prehistoric population, and to consider this information in
terms of the variability of human response to environmental threats. Drawing on
this body of literature, he specifies the parameters of natural hazards as well as
the relevant characteristics of affected societies that must be taken into account in
order to understand reactions to such events. Perhaps more importantly, however,
he provides a detailed examination of how the Chiribaya population responded to
the disaster, and considers multiple lines of evidence that shed light on changes in
settlement patterns, subsistence practices, sociopolitical organization, and ethnic
identity. This fine-grained focus on a single, relatively small-scale society also al-
lows him to begin addressing an issue long-ignored in prehistoric disaster research,
the variability of response within a society, in this case based on differences in
geographic location, subsistence strategies, and, to some degree, social status.
The most ambitious treatment of disasters in prehistoric Andean societies
is Williamss examination of the role of such events in the Moquegua Valley
(Williams, 1997). He proposes a model of disaster-induced social change that
draws on hazard research and archaeological theories of social evolution for the
examination of Moquegua history over the last 1500 years. More specifically, he
tests the proposition that in the long- term, prehistory is best characterized in terms
of punctuated equilibrium, with periods of continuity occasionally interrupted
by catastrophic events, including El Nino episodes, that generate rapid social
change. This idea was originally applied to Andean prehistory by Moseley (1987).
He suggested that the traditional chronology, which consists of periods of local
development alternating with brief horizons during which rapid change occurred,
could be understood in terms of cultural stasis punctuated by the movement of
ethnic groups in response to extreme ENSO events.
Although, like other researchers, Williams focuses primarily on agricultural
infrastructure, a key notion in his analysis is the concept of social vulnerability,
which allows him to examine the relationships among technology, social organi-
zation, and natural hazards. While some might disagree with Williamss assertion
that catastrophes are the primary motor of social change, or with his equation of
a wide range of social processes with natural hazards, his analysis is the most
sophisticated treatment of prehistoric disasters in the Andes thus far.
Finally, a global approach to ENSO-related climatological disasters has been
offered by Fagan (1999) in a recent book directed at a popular audience. In terms
of scope, it is not unlike the claim by Sandweiss et al. (1999) regarding the re-
lationship between mid-Holocene climate and culture change, but Fagan focuses
P1: GMX
Journal of Archaeological Method and Theory [jamt] PP140-302146 April 20, 2001 18:54 Style file version Nov. 19th, 1999

The Archaeology of El Nino Events and Other Natural Disasters 141

on specific disasters that resulted in the collapse of ancient states. Using cases
such as the fall of the Moche and the disintegration of centralized political order
in Old Kingdom Egypt as illustrative examples, he argues that complex societies
with rigid bureaucracies and populations approaching carrying capacity are most
vulnerable to natural hazards. Both the logic of his thesis and his appeal to contem-
porary concerns regarding overpopulation and global climate change are similar
to arguments put forth by archaeologists 20 years ago when popular interest in
ecology was on the rise (e.g., Culbert, 1974; Hoffman, 1980).

Toward the Political Ecology of Prehistoric Disasters

As the above review demonstrates, archaeological investigations of disasters

have become increasingly sophisticated since Sheets first assessed the field. Pre-
historians have made progress on all of the issues raised by him, but to varying
degrees. While post hoc treatments of accidentally encountered evidence still oc-
cur, substantial bodies of literature have developed, not just on ENSO activity,
but on other sorts of natural disasters affecting prehistoric populations as well.
These are generated as a result of interaction among researchers investigating cer-
tain types of events, such as volcanism (e.g., Mothes, 1999; Sheets and Grayson,
1979), or social transformations that occurred during a specific time period or in
a particular region and which may be attributable to disasters or abrupt climate
change (e.g., Dalfes et al., 1997; Peiser et al., 1998). Many of these investiga-
tions have been shaped by research designs produced specifically to identify the
occurrence, magnitude, or effects of such events.
One of the major successesas well as, perhaps, an important pitfallof
disaster research conducted by archaeologists is the close collaboration that has
developed between them and physical scientists, particularly geologists, hydrol-
ogists, and climatologists. The expertise of these scholars has been particularly
useful in establishing the nature and timing of disasters and assessing their mate-
rial consequences, particularly for subsistence activities. Archaeologists have also
made some substantial contributions to the scientific literature on climatic anoma-
lies (e.g., Richardson, 1983; Sandweiss et al., 1983, 1996). However, the problems
raised by geographers with regard to the predominance of physical science in con-
temporary disaster studies is mirrored in the field of archaeology; we have learned
much more about the geophysical parameters of prehistoric natural hazards than
we have about their relation to and impact on past societies. In addition, the de-
velopment of a variety of proxy paleoclimatic indicators, some of which offer fine
temporal resolution, has tended to promote interest in correlating periods of rapid
social change with evidence of severe climatic shifts. So, for example, the pub-
lication of cores from the Quelccaya ice cap that reflect precipitation patterns in
highland Peru over the last 1500 years (Thompson et al., 1985) resulted in a spate
of publications suggesting a causal relationship between El Nino events, drought,
P1: GMX
Journal of Archaeological Method and Theory [jamt] PP140-302146 April 20, 2001 18:54 Style file version Nov. 19th, 1999

142 Van Buren

and the collapse of Andean states (e.g., Kolata, 1996, pp.195199; Moseley, 1987;
Shimada et al., 1991), while the Greenland ice cores have had a similar effect on
investigations of European Bronze Age societies (see Buckland et al., 1997 for a
critique of this literature).
An important consequence of this line of research is the predominance of
disaster scenarios in the academic literature and especially the popular press. As
Buckland and his colleagues note (Buckland et al., 1997, p. 581) catastrophes
ancient and modernare headline news. This type of cumulative effect is re-
flected in Table I, which indicates many of the prehistoric social processes for
which El Nino has been cited as an explanation. When considered separately most
of these claims seem reasonable, though often inadequately supported, but when
viewed as a whole the effect is disheartening, particularly since no author men-
tioned here is an environmental determinist, and many explicitly reject such a
position. However, El Nino has been implicated in a broad range of events, and
the social factors involved in these processes have been systematically investi-
gated only rarely. The same trends can be seen in the more recent incorporation of
drought into archaeological explanations of social change in the Andes, particu-
larly the Titicaca Basin (Binford et al., 1997; Erickson, 1999; Kolata and Ortloff,
1996; Shimada et al., 1991). As Burger (1988, pp. 141, 142) implied a decade ago,
El Nino could easily become the deus ex machina of archaeological explanation
in the Andes, although it is now vying with drought as a prime mover.
Both collaboration with physical scientists and engagement with issues of
contemporary concern, such as climate change, can positively affect archaeolog-
ical research on hazards by providing critical information regarding their timing
and nature, as well as funding opportunities and public support. However, these
approaches can also exact a cost, primarily by diverting attention from the unglam-
ourous and methodologically messy process of investigating the historical condi-
tions that promote disaster and the specific social repercussions that ensue once
such an event occurs. These are problems that increased interaction with natural
scientists, which has been advocated by a number of archaeologists as a means of
enhancing the investigation of prehistoric hazards, cannot help resolve.
One strategy for gaining a better understanding of the diverse variables that
are involved in generating and responding to disasters is to incorporate and develop
concepts drawn from the newer ecological approaches used in anthropology today,
rather than relying on an older equilibrium model derived from the version of
human ecology that was initially adopted by archaeologists. Erickson (1999) has
begun this process in an important critique of the prevailing explanation for the
collapse of the Tiwanaku state, which is attributed by a number of archaeologists
to a lengthy drought that exceeded the environmental threshold, or normal range
of climatic variation to which the culture could adapt. Erickson contends that
such a scenario is based on an understanding of ecosystem stability that has been
called into question by the New Ecology. This approach, which initially emerged
P1: GMX
Journal of Archaeological Method and Theory [jamt] PP140-302146 April 20, 2001 18:54 Style file version Nov. 19th, 1999

The Archaeology of El Nino Events and Other Natural Disasters 143

Table I. Social Processes Attributed to El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Events

Social process Reference

Development of social complexity during late Osborn (1977)

Preceramic Period on north coast of Peru
Increased social complexity in Pacific Basin and Sandweiss et al. (1999)
elsewhere during the mid-Holocene due to onset
of ENSO cycle and associated climate change
Emergence and spread of Chavn cult as a response Burger (1988, pp. 139143)
to crisis induced by an ENSO event
Abandonment of Moche capital and collapse of Moseley and Richardson (1992)
empire due to ENSO event, perhaps in
conjunction with an earthquake and drought
Collapse of Moche state, Old Kingdom Egypt, and Fagan (1999)
Classic Maya due to ENSO related climatic
effects
Destruction of Chiribaya culture on the south coast of Satterlee (1993)
Peru by catastrophic rains and mudslides caused
by an ENSO event
Political collapse and radical alteration of Chiribaya Reycraft (1998)
culture on the south coast of Peru due to
catastrophic rains and mudslides caused by
an ENSO event
Collapse of Chiribaya culture as a result of drought, Williams (1997)
competition for water with up-valley polities,
and ENSO associated rains and mudslides
Alternation of periods of local development and Moseley (1987)
horizons in Peruvian archaeological record,
the latter resulting from the movement and
interaction of ethnic groups set in motion by
ENSO events
Colonization of Easter Island by Polynesian Caviedes and Waylen (1993)
navigators using anomalous westerly winds
precipitated by impending ENSO event

as a result of mathematical research demonstrating the lack of stability in systems

and the development of nonequilibrium theory, casts doubt on the existence of
normal environmental parameters to which a population is adapted (Scoones,
1999), a model that was developed, for the most part, in well-vegetated, temperate
environments (Sullivan, 1996). Such a perspective has important implications for
the study of the social consequences of El Nino activity, whose salience as a
causal variable changes significantly depending on whether it is regarded as a
continuously occurring process of variable intensity or as a rare anomaly with
disastrous effects. On the most general level, it calls the frequent characterization
of the Andes as a particularly harsh and hazard prone environment into question.
More specifically, regarding El Nino as an integral part of the system (Sullivan,
1996) would redirect attention to the strategies people regularly deployed to cope
with these phenomena, and could provide insight into the reasons why some of
P1: GMX
Journal of Archaeological Method and Theory [jamt] PP140-302146 April 20, 2001 18:54 Style file version Nov. 19th, 1999

144 Van Buren

these events became actual disasters. This is particularly important because hazard
research on modern populations indicates that disasters often exacerbate social
trends that are initiated prior to the catastrophic event (Oliver-Smith, 1996).
Unfortunately nonequilibrium theory has not received much attention from
social scientists (Scoones, 1999), but, as Erickson points out, a number of other
ideas emerging from the New Ecology share important points of convergence with
the various new ecologies that are being developed by social scientists (Biersack,
1999; Hoffman and Oliver-Smith, 1999; Scoones, 1999). Together, these offer con-
ceptual tools for overcoming some of the problems with current archaeological
approaches to hazards. Two of the most important points of agreement are the
reconceptualization of the relationship between humans and culture as a complex,
dialectical interaction, and the argument that historical processes play a critical
role in social and ecological change. This stance entails a rejection of the idea that
social change is caused by adaptation to an externally generated environmental
shift, or that similar perturbations in the environment will result in similar social
outcomes. Instead, culture and nature change together as a result of diverse inter-
actions, and the outcome is historically contingent. Archaeologists are particularly
well equipped for this kind of approach, which involves the diachronic, multidis-
ciplinary analysis of landscapes (e.g., Balee, 1998; Crumley, 1994; Crumley and
Marquardt, 1987; Fisher and Thurston, 1999; Kirch and Hunt, 1997), similar in
method, if not perspective, to the kind of research that prehistorians have long been
conducting on ENSO events, for example. Additionally, it requires the expansion
of temporal and geographical scales, so that long-term change can be traced re-
gionally, and a holistic perspective that inhibits reliance on simple correlations
between environmental and social variables.
While all these factors would improve archaeological research on hazards, a
fourth concept, drawn from political ecology, is especially critical to understanding
the consequences of disasters. Political ecology combines the concerns of ecology
and a broadly defined political economy . . . [which] encompasses the constantly
shifting dialectic between society and . . . resources (Blaikie and Brookfield, 1987,
p. 17 quoted in Peet and Watts, 1996, p. 3). The term was first used by Wolf (1972)
in his analysis of the relationship between land-use and the global economy, and it
continues to be applied primarily in a development context. However, the intersec-
tion of environment, resource use, and politics characterizes all societies, although
the nature of these relationships will obviously vary. Most societies are composed
of distinct groups with differential access to resources, and competition for these
often occurs both within and between polities. Thus, the relationship between a
society and the environment is not unitary, but is characterized instead by a va-
riety of interactions that involve different kinds of people, motivations, resources,
places, and outcomes. Furthermore, since resources are exploited for social pur-
poses and within social contexts, the emphasis remains sociocentric rather than
ecocentric (Biersack, 1999; Nyerges, 1996).
P1: GMX
Journal of Archaeological Method and Theory [jamt] PP140-302146 April 20, 2001 18:54 Style file version Nov. 19th, 1999

The Archaeology of El Nino Events and Other Natural Disasters 145

Political ecology encompasses the notion of vulnerability that is already being

used by some archaeologists in examining the conjunction of social and geophys-
ical factors that resulted in prehistoric disasters. However, while its application
has the potential for generating more holistic research, it should be treated as
an empirically testable model rather than an organizing principle of future work.
Both political ecology in general, and the more specific notion of vulnerability
developed out of dependency theory and constituted an attempt to understand en-
vironmental crises and conflicts in the context of the modern world order. Whether,
for example, the distribution and impact of prehistoric disasters can be construed
in precisely the same way is unlikely, since recent research on prehistoric disasters
suggests that differently organized societies responded to hazards in distinct ways
(Fagan, 1999; Sheets, 1999). A related problem with the concept of vulnerability
is that it is not particularly useful for understanding long-term transformations set
in motion by specific disasters or by interaction with a hazardous environment. As
Sheets (1980) noted 20 years ago, modern hazard research is concerned primarily
with the short-term consequences of disasters as well as ways in which to prevent
them. Archaeologists, in fact, could make important contributions with respect to
these issues, but they would have to develop their own means for addressing them.
Hazard research on modern populations, however, has demonstrated the most
basic principals of political ecology; environmental crises affect the component
groups of society differently and often, in fact, promote the emergence of new
political relations, particularly between states and affected groups (Blaikie et al.,
1994; Oliver-Smith, 1996). Prehistorians, then must be sure to identify the axes of
variation within a society, including, for example, gender, class, political factions,
ethnicity, and occupation, in order to assess the ways in which varied groups
contended with environmental variability and coped with disaster. As Erickson
(1999) makes clear in his analysis of drought in the Titicaca Basin, prehistoric
populations were not simply victims of climatic shifts, but were, instead, creative
and resourceful actors who deployed a variety of strategies for thriving in or just
plain surviving complex and dynamic environments. These strategies, though,
were shaped and constrained by their position in society at a particular place and
time in history. If archaeologists want to understand both why disasters occurred
and how ancient societies were affected, they must be able to identify constitutive
groups, assess the different ways in which they interacted with the environment
and each other, and trace their varied responses to extreme phenomena.
Archaeologists have already begun to adopt a number of concepts from ge-
ography and the new ecologies in their analysis of disasters. These fields offer
important tools for meeting some of the challenges posed by hazard research. By
reconceptualizing the relationship between humans and the environment as di-
alectical, continuously fluctuating, and historically contingent archaeologists can
continue to explore the nature and effects of prehistoric disasters without generat-
ing the deterministic explanations of social change that they profess to reject.
P1: GMX
Journal of Archaeological Method and Theory [jamt] PP140-302146 April 20, 2001 18:54 Style file version Nov. 19th, 1999

146 Van Buren

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

Special thanks to Mike Moseley, Payson Sheets, Dimitris Stevis, Susan

deFrance, and the editors, Jim Skibo and Cathy Cameron, for reading and of-
fering constructive criticism on the first version of this paper. Mike Moseley, in
particular, provided important insights into the history of research on natural disas-
ters in the Andes. All opinions, omissions, and errors of fact are, of course, solely
the responsibility of the author.

REFERENCES CITED

Alexander, D. E. (1995). A survey of the field of natural hazards and disaster studies. In Carrara, A.,
and Guzzetti, F. (eds.), Geographical Information Systems in Assessing Natural Hazards, Kluwer
Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, Boston, and London, pp. 119.
Alexander, D. E. (1997). The study of natural disasters, 19771997: Some reflections on a changing
field of knowledge. Disasters 21(4): 284304.
Balee, W. (ed.) (1998). Advances in Historical Ecology, Columbia University Press, New York.
Biersack, A. (1999). Introduction: From the new ecology to the new ecologies. American Anthro-
pologist 101(1): 518.
Binford, M., Kolata, A., Brenner, M., Janusek, J., Seddon, M., Abbott, M., and Curtis, J. (1997). Climate
variation and the rise and fall of an Andean civilization. Quaternary Research 47: 235248.
Bjerknes, J. (1966a). Survey of El Nino 195758 in its relation to tropical pacific meteorology. Inter-
American Tropical Tuna Commission Bulletin 12: 162.
Bjerknes, J. (1966b). A possible response of the atmospheric Hadley circulation to equatorial anomalies
of ocean temperature. Tellus 18: 820829.
Blaikie, P., Cannon, T., Davis, I., and Wisner, B. (1994). At Risk: Natural Hazards, Peoples Vulnera-
bility, and Disasters, Routledge, London and New York.
Blaikie, P., and Brookfield, H. (1987). Defining and debating the problem. In Blaikie, P., and Brookfield,
H. (eds.), Land Degradation and Society, Methuen, London and New York, pp. 126.
Boehmer-Christiansen, S. (1999). Global climate protection policy: The limits of scientific advice, Parts
1 and 2. In Rudig, W. (ed.), Environmental Policy, Vol. II: International Environmental Policy,
Edward Elgar Publishing, Cheltenham, UK, and Northhampton, USA, pp. 248283.
Buckland, P. C., Dugmore, A. J., and Edwards, K. J. (1997). Bronze age myths? Volcanic activity and
human response in the Mediterranean and North Atlantic regions. Antiquity 71: 581593.
Burger, R. (1988). Unity and heterogeneity in the Chavn horizon. In Keatinge, R. W. (ed.), Peruvian
Prehistory, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp. 99144.
Caviedes, C. N. (1975). El Nino 1972: Its climatic, ecological, human, and economic implications. The
Geographical Review 65(4): 493509.
Caviedes, C. N. (1984a). El Nino 19821983. Geographical Review 74: 267290.
Caviedes, C. N. (1984b). Geography and the lessons from El Nino. Professional Geographer 36(4):
428436.
Caviedes, C. N. (1985). Emergency and institutional crisis in Peru during El Nino 19821983. Disasters
9(1): 7074.
Caviedes, C. N., and Waylen, P. R. (1987). El Nino y crecidas anuales en los ros del norte del Peru.
Bulletin de lInstitut francais detudes andines 16(12): 119.
Caviedes, C. N., and Waylen, P. R. (1993). Anomalous westerly winds during El Nino events: The
discovery and colonization of Easter Island. Applied Geography 13(2): 123134.
CNN-Time (1998). Poll readings: Views on the American scene. National Journal 30(15): 825.
Craig, A. K., and Psuty, N. P. (1968). The Paracas Papers: Studies in Marine Desert Ecology, Vol. 1,
Department of Geography, Florida Atlantic University, Boca Raton. Occasional Papers.
Craig, A. K., and Shimada, I. (1986). El Nino flood deposits at Batan Grande, northern Peru. Geoar-
chaeology 1: 2938.
P1: GMX
Journal of Archaeological Method and Theory [jamt] PP140-302146 April 20, 2001 18:54 Style file version Nov. 19th, 1999

The Archaeology of El Nino Events and Other Natural Disasters 147

Crumley, C. L. (ed.) (1994). Historical Ecology: Cultural Knowledge and Changing Landscapes,
School of American Research Press, Santa Fe.
Crumley, C. L., and Marquardt, W. H. (eds.) (1987). Regional Dynamics: Burgundian Landscapes in
Historical Perspective, Academic Press, San Diego.
Culbert, T. P. (1974). The Lost Civilization: The Story of the Classic Maya, Harper & Rowe, New York.
Dalfes, H., Kukla, G., and Weiss, H. (eds.) (1997). Third Millennium BC Climate Change and Old
World Collapse, Springer-Verlag, Berlin. NATO ASI Series 1, Vol. 49.
Donnan, C. B. (1986). Introduction. In Donnan, C., and Cock, G. (eds.), The Pacatnamu Papers, Vol. 1:
Museum of Cultural History, UCLA, Los Angeles, pp. 1926.
Donnan, C. B. (1990). An assessment of the validity of the Naymlap dynasty. In Moseley, M. E., and
Cordy-Collins, A. (eds.), The Northern Dynasties: Kingship and Statecraft in Chimor, Dumbarton
Oaks, Washington, DC, pp. 243274.
Enfield, D. B. (1989). El Nino, past and present. Reviews of Geophysics 27(1): 159187.
Erickson, C. (1999). Neo-environmental determinism and agrarian collapse in Andean prehistory.
Antiquity 73: 634642.
Fagan, B. (1999). Floods, Famines and Emperors: El Nino and the Fate of Civilizations, Basic Books,
New York.
Fisher, C. T., and Thurston, T. L. (1999). Dynamic landscapes and socio-political process: The topog-
raphy of anthropogenic environments in global perspective. Antiquity 73: 630631.
Glantz, M. H. (1981). The societal value of an El Nino forecast. In Glantz, M. H., and Thompson, J. D.
(eds.), Resource Management and Environmental Uncertainty: Lessons from Coastal Upwelling
Fisheries, John Wiley & Sons, New York, pp. 449476.
Glantz, M. H. (1987). The Societal Impacts Associated with the 198283 Worldwide Climate Anomalies,
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder.
Glantz, M. H. (1994). Usable Science: Food Security, Early Warning, and El Nino, National Center
for Atmospheric Research, Boulder.
Glantz, M. H. (1995). Usable Science II: The Potential Use and Misuse of El Nino Information in North
America, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder.
Glantz, M. H. (1996). Currents of Change: El Ninos Impact on Climate and Society, Cambridge
University Press, Cambridge.
Glantz, M. H. (1997). Systems Approach to ENSO: Atmospheric, Oceanic, Societal, Environmental
and Policy Perspectives, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder.
Glantz, M. H., Katz, R. W., and Nicholls, N. (eds.) (1991). Teleconnections Linking Worldwide Climate
Anomalies: Scientific Basis and Societal Impact, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
Hewitt, K. (ed.) (1983). Interpretations of Calamity from the Viewpoint of Human Ecology, Allen &
Unwin, London.
Hoffman, M. P. (1980). Prehistoric ecological crises. In Bilsky, L. J. (ed.), Historical Ecology: Essays
on Environment and Social Change, Kennikat Press, New York, pp. 3341.
Hoffman, S. M., and Oliver-Smith, A. (1999). Anthropology and the angry earth: An overview. In
Oliver-Smith, A., and Hoffman, S. M. (eds.), The Angry Earth: Disaster in Anthropological
Perspective, Routledge, New York and London, pp. 116.
Kirch, P. V., and Hunt, T. L. (eds.) (1997). Historical Ecology in the Pacific Islands: Pre-
historic Environmental and Landscape Change, Yale University Press, New Haven and
London.
Kolata, A. L. (1996). Valley of the Spirits: A Journey into the Lost Realm of the Aymara, John Wiley &
Sons, New York.
Kolata, A. L., and Ortloff, C. (1996). Agroecological perspectives and the decline of the Tiwanaku State.
In Kolata, A. L. (ed.), Tiwanaku and Its Hinterland, Smithsonian Institution Press, Washington,
DC, pp. 181201.
Lanning, E. P. (1963). A pre-agricultural occupation on the central coast of Peru. American Antiquity
28: 360371.
Moore, J. (1991). Cultural responses to environmental catastrophes: Post-El Nino subsistence on the
prehistoric north coast of Peru. Latin American Antiquity 2(1): 2747.
Moseley, M. (1975). The Maritime Foundations of Andean Civilization, Cummings, Menlo Park, CA.
Moseley, M. (1983). The good old days were better: Agrarian collapse and tectonics. American
Anthropologist 85: 773799.
P1: GMX
Journal of Archaeological Method and Theory [jamt] PP140-302146 April 20, 2001 18:54 Style file version Nov. 19th, 1999

148 Van Buren

Moseley, M. (1987). Punctuated equilibrium: Searching the ancient record for El Nino. Quarterly
Review of Archaeology, Fall, 710.
Moseley, M. (1990). Structure and history in the dynastic lore of Chimor. In Moseley, M. E., and Cordy-
Collins, A. (eds.), The Northern Dynasties: Kingship and Statecraft in Chimor, Dumbarton Oaks,
Washington, DC, pp. 1 41.
Moseley, M. (1999). Convergent catastrophe: Past patterns and future implications of collateral natural
disasters in the Andes. In Oliver-Smith, A., and Hoffman, S. M. (eds.), The Angry Earth: Disaster
in Anthropological Perspective, Routledge, New York and London, pp. 5988.
Moseley, M., Feldman, R., and Ortloff, C. (1981). Living with crises: Human perception of process and
time. In Nitecki, M. (ed.), Biotic Crises in Ecological and Evolutionary Time, Academic Press,
New York, pp. 231267.
Moseley, M., Feldman, R., Ortloff, C., and Narvaez, A. (1983). Principles of agrarian collapse in the
Cordillera Negra, Peru. Annals of the Carnegie Museum 52(13): 299327.
Moseley, M. E., and Richardson, J. B., III (1992). Doomed by natural disaster. Archaeology 45
(Nov.Dec.): 4445.
Mothes, P. (ed.) (1999). Actividad volcanica y pueblos precolombinos en Ecuador, Abya-Yala, Quito.
Nials, F. L., Deeds, E. E., Moseley, M. E., Pozorski, S., Pozorski, T., and Feldman, R. (1979a). El Nino:
The catastrophic flooding of coastal Peru, pt. 1. Field Museum of Natural History Bulletin 50(7):
414.
Nials, F. L., Deeds, E. E., Moseley, M. E., Pozorski, S., Pozorski, T., and Feldman, R. (1979b). El Nino:
The catastrophic flooding of coastal Peru, pt. 2. Field Museum of Natural History Bulletin 50(8):
410.
Nyerges, A. E. (1996). IntroductionThe ecology of practice. In Nyerges, A. E. (ed.), The Ecology
of Practice: Studies of Food Crop Production in Sub-Saharan West Africa, Gordon and Breach,
Amsterdam, pp. 138.
Oliver-Smith, A. (1986). Disaster context and causation: An overview of changing perspectives in
disaster research. In Oliver-Smith, A. (ed.), Natural Disasters and Cultural Responses, Department
of Anthropology, College of William and Mary, Williamsburg. Studies in Third World Societies,
Vol. 36, pp. 134.
Oliver-Smith, A. (1996). Anthropological research on hazards and disasters. Annual Review of Anthro-
pology 25: 303328.
Osborn, A. J. (1977). Strandloopers, mermaids, and other fairy tales: Ecological determinants of marine
resource utilizationThe Peruvian case. In Binford, L. (ed.), For Theory Building in Archaeology,
Academic Press, New York, pp. 157205.
Palm, R. I. (1990). Natural Hazards: An Integrative Framework for Research and Planning, The Johns
Hopkins University Press, Baltimore and London.
Parsons, M. H. (1970). Preceramic subsistence on the Peruvian coast. American Antiquity 35: 292304.
Peet, R., and Watts, M. (1996). Liberation ecology: Development, sustainability, and environment in an
age of market triumphalism. In Peet, R., and Watts, M. (eds.), Liberation Ecologies: Environment,
Development, Social Movements, Routledge, London, pp. 1 45.
Peiser, B. J., Palmer, T., and Bailey, M. E. (eds.) (1998). Natural Catastrophes During Bronze Age Civil-
isations: Archaeological, Geological, Astronomical and Cultural Perspectives, BAR International
Series 728, British Archaeological Reports, Oxford.
Pozorski, T. (1987). Changing priorities within the Chimu State: The role of irrigation agriculture. In
Haas, J., Pozorski, S., and Pozorski, T. (eds.), The Origins and Development of the Andean State,
Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp. 111120.
Quinn, W. H., Neal, V. T., and Antunez de Mayolo, S. E. (1987). El Nino occurrences over the past
four and a half centuries. Journal of Geophysical Research 92(C13): 1444914461.
Reycraft, R. M. (1998). The Terminal Chiribaya Project: The Archaeology of Human Response to
Natural Disaster in South Coastal Peru, Ph.D. Dissertation, University of New Mexico.
Richardson, J. B., III (1978). Early man on the Peruvian north coast, early maritime exploitation
and the Pleistocene and Holocene environment. In Byran, A. L. (ed.), Early Man in America,
Archaeological Researches International, Edmonton, Canada. Occasional Papers, Vol. 1, Depart-
ment of Anthropology, University of Alberta, pp. 274289.
Richardson, J. B., III (1981). Modeling the development of sedentary maritime economies on the coast
of Peru. Annals of the Carnegie Museum of Natural History 50: 139150.
P1: GMX
Journal of Archaeological Method and Theory [jamt] PP140-302146 April 20, 2001 18:54 Style file version Nov. 19th, 1999

The Archaeology of El Nino Events and Other Natural Disasters 149

Richardson, J. B., III (1983). The Chira beach ridges, sea level change, and the origins of maritime
economies on the Peruvian coast. Annals of Carnegie Museum of Natural History 52: 265276.
Rollins, H. B., Sandweiss, D. H., and Richardson, J. B., III (1986). The birth of El Nino: Geoarchaeo-
logical evidence and implications. Geoarchaeology 1: 315.
Sandweiss, D. H. (1986). The beach ridges at Santa, Peru: El Nino, uplift, and prehistory. Geoarchae-
ology 1: 1728.
Sandweiss, D. H., Maasch, K. A., and Anderson, D. G. (1999). Transitions in the Mid-Holocene.
Science 283(5401): 499, 500.
Sandweiss, D. H., Richardson, J. B., III, Reitz, E. J., Rollins, H. B., and Maasch, K. A. (1996).
Geoarchaeological evidence from Peru for a 5000 years B.P. onset of El Nino. Science 273:
15311533.
Sandweiss, D. H., Rollins, H. B., and Richardson, J. B., III (1983). Landscape alteration and prehistoric
human occupation on the north coast of Peru. Annals of the Carnegie Museum 52: 277298.
Satterlee, D. (1993). Impact of a Fourteenth Century El Nino Flood on an Indigenous Population Near
Ilo, Peru, Ph.D. Dissertation, University of Florida, Gainesville.
Scoones, I. (1999). New ecology and the social sciences: What prospects for a fruitful engagement?
Annual Review of Anthropology 28: 479507.
Sheets, P. (1979). Environmental and cultural effects of the Ilopango eruption in central America.
In Sheets, P., and Grayson, D. (eds.), Volcanic Activity and Human Ecology, Academic Press,
New York, pp. 525564.
Sheets, P. (1980). Archaeological Studies of Disaster: Their Range and Value, Institute of Behavioral
Science, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado.
Sheets, P. (1999). The effects of explosive volcanism on ancient egalitarian, ranked, and stratified
societies in middle America. In Oliver-Smith, A., and Hoffman, S. M. (eds.), The Angry Earth:
Disaster in Anthropological Perspective, Routledge, New York and London, pp. 3658.
Sheets, P. D., and Grayson, D. K. (eds.) (1979). Volcanic Activity and Human Ecology, Academic
Press, New York.
Shimada, I. (1990). Cultural continuities and discontinuities on the northern coast of Peru, middle-late
horizons. In Moseley, M. E., and Cordy-Collins, A. (eds.), The Northern Dynasties: Kingship and
Statecraft in Chimor, Dumbarton Oaks, Washington, DC, pp. 297392.
Shimada, I., Schaaf, C. B., Thompson, L. G., and Mosley-Thompson, E. (1991). Cultural impacts of
severe droughts in the prehistoric Andes: Application of a 1,500-year ice core precipitation record.
World Archaeology 22(3): 247270.
Sullivan, S. (1996). Towards a non-equilibrium ecology: Perspectives from an arid land. Journal of
Biogeography 23: 15.
Thompson, L., Moseley-Thompson, E., Bolzan, J., and Koci, B. (1985). A 1500 year record of tropical
precipitation records in ice cores from the Quelccaya ice cap, Peru. Science 229: 971973.
Varley, A. (1994). The exceptional and the everyday: Vulnerability analysis in the international decade
for natural disaster reduction. In Varley, A. (ed.), Disasters, Development and Environment, John
Wiley & Sons, Chichester, England, pp. 111.
Wells, L. (1987). An alluvial record of El Nino events from northern coastal Peru. Journal of Geophys-
ical Research 92(C13): 14,464 14,470.
Wells, L. (1990). Holocene history of the El Nino phenomenon as recorded in flood sediments of
northern coastal Peru. Geology 18: 11341137.
Williams, P. R. (1997). The Role of Disaster in the Development of Agriculture and the Evolution of
Social Complexity in the South-Central Andes, Ph.D. Dissertation, University of Florida.
Wisner, B. (1993). Disaster vulnerability: Scale, power and daily life. GeoJournal 30(2): 127140.
Wolf, E. (1972). Ownership and political ecology. Anthropological Quarterly 45(2): 201205.