How to Rank Programme Risks
Individually rank each risk identified according to its frequency/likelihood and its severity. Enter information into white cells. Shaded cells will calculate automatically.Step 3 – Compute the average frequency/likelihood and average severity ranking for each risk category.he risk assessment tool will calculate and display these averages automatically.Step ! – "dd the average frequency/likelihood and severity ranking for each risk category.he risk assessment tool will calculate and display these sums automatically.Step # – $etermine whether each risk category is high% medium% or low according to the following thresholds&he risk assessment tool will determine and display whether each risk is high% medium or low automatically.'igh risks categories will automatically turn cells red% medium risks will automatically turn yellow% and low risks will automatically turn green.
How to develop Risk Mitigation Actions
(our overall risk mitigation strategy should )e simple% clear and managea)le with the resources availa)le.
Step * – +ank the frequency/likelihood of a given risk from * to ! using these criteria&
4 = Very Likely
, "lmost certain to occur over the life of the pro-ect or a * year period , whichever is shorter0
3 = Likely
, 1ro)a)ly will occur during a *,year period
2 = Unlikely
, 1ro)a)ly will
!"
occur during a *,year period
# = Very Unlikely
, "lmost certain
!"
to occur during a *,year periodStep 2 – +ank the severity of a given risk from * to ! using these criteria&
4 = Very Hig$
– ould prevent goals and o)-ectives from )eing achieved
3 = Hig$
– ould cause significant pro)lems or delays in o)-ectives )eing achieved
2 = Medi%m
– ould cause relatively minor pro)lems or delays in o)-ectives )eing achieved
# = Low
– ould pro)a)ly not affect pro-ect implementation
&'( Hig$ Risk )red*
– (ou should have a detailed mitigation action and perhaps consider modifying your goals and o)-ectives
4'+ Medi%m Risk )yellow*
– (ou should have a clearly defined mitigation action
#'3 Low Risk )green*
– 4o mitigation action required or a very )asic action if you think it is necessary0
5or risks that are essentially internal e.g. Capacity% 6eadership% 1artners0 you should focus on
taking action to reduce the risk
. 5or risks that are e7ternal to the pro-ect e.g. 1olitical% Economic0 your response will more likely )e to
develop contingency plans and monitor the risks
.
Page 2 of 6
Programme Risk Assessment "oolRisk ,ategory-.%estions /or ,onsideration0denti/ied Risks )otes*Risk Likeli$oodRisk 1everityRisk Ranking#* Partner )non'government*
2 3 5
32234224
Etc8
1114
2* Political )incl%ding government partners*
3 2 5
41
a0 'as a full stakeholder analysis )een completed9 Step *.!0E7ample& 1rogramme does not know which partner organi:ations are critical to its success.
(Note: Sample scores are filled in for 2 columns at right to demonstrate how tool operates. Delete all contents of white cells in this column and 2 columns at right before using tool. Do not delete formulas in blue cells.)
)0 "re all of the necessary partners engaged in the process9E7ample& 6ack of engagement with indigenous group ;.c0 $o the partners completely support the vision% goals and o)-ectives of the programme9 Steps *.2 and 2.*0E7ample& <ey partner ( does not agree on long,term vision and goals.d0 'ave strong governance structures or agreements )een developed for partner involvement and interaction9 Step 3.!0E7ample& 6ack of strong governance structures and agreements.e0 Is there a relia)le process in place to resolve disagreements )etween partners9f0 Is the programme overly dependent on * or 2 key partners9a0 Is the political situation sta)le in each country or region that the programme spans9
Input SPECIFIC risks that your team identifies when discussing questions for consideration.
Likelihood of Risk Occurring4 = Very Likely
– Almost certain to occur oer the life of the pro!ect "or a #$ year period% whicheer is shorter&
3 = Likely
– Pro'a'ly will occur during a #$(year period
2 = Unlikely
– Pro'a'ly will )*+ occur during a #$(year period
1 = Very Unlikely
– Almost certain )*+ to occur during a #$(year period
Severity of Risk 4 = Very High
– ,ould preent goals and o'!ecties from 'eing achieed
3 = High
– ,ould cause significant pro'lems or delays in o'!ecties 'eing achieed
2 = Mediu
– ,ould cause relatiely minor pro'lems or delays in o'!ecties 'eing achieed
1 = Lo!
– ,ould pro'a'ly not affect pro!ect implementation
Page 3 of 6
Risk ,ategory-.%estions /or ,onsideration0denti/ied Risks )otes*Risk Likeli$oodRisk 1everityRisk Ranking
144111
3* conomic
3 3 6
333333
4* 0n/rastr%ct%re
2 2 4
222222
)0 $o the governments or agencies involved have competing agendas9c0 $o all political partners completely support the vision% goals and o)-ectives of this programme9 Steps *.2 and 2.*0d0 Is there a relia)le process in place to resolve differences )etween governments or government agencies9 a0 Is the programme su)-ect to inflationary risk in any country where activities or fundraising takes place9 )0 Is the programme su)-ect to foreign e7change risk in any country where activities or fundraising takes place9c0 Is the programme su)-ect to interest rate risk in any country where )orrowing or lending takes place9a0 $oes the country or region have the appropriate infrastructure to carry out and support programme implementation9 )0 Is there an appropriate management and/or '+/recruitment structure in place that can )e leveraged to roll out the programme9c0 Is there an appropriate )anking and financial structure to distri)ute and control funding9
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