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Para citar este artculo: Useche A., A. J. (2014). Exceso de confianza y optimismo en las decisiones de presu-
puesto de capital: las finanzas corporativas desde un enfoque centrado en el comportamiento. Universidad &
Empresa, 16(26), 95-116. doi: dx.doi.org/10.12804/rev.univ.empresa.26.2014.03
RESUMEN
Este artculo presenta, como resultado de la revisin de literatura efectuada como un pro-
yecto de investigacin, un anlisis comparativo entre el proceso de evaluacin de decisiones
de inversin, desde la teora financiera tradicional, y un nuevo enfoque complementario que
surge desde las finanzas corporativas basadas en el comportamiento (Behavioral Corpora-
te Finance), un campo creciente de investigacin en el cual se incorporan las influencias
emocionales y cognitivas con el fin de lograr una mejor comprensin respecto a la toma de
decisiones empresariales. Se analiza, en particular, la forma en la que los sesgos en el com-
portamiento, denominados exceso de confianza y optimismo, influyen de forma sistemtica
*
Doctor of Business Administration (DBA) de la Swiss Management Center University. Profesor
de carrera, Universidad del Rosario. Correo electrnico: alejandro.useche@urosario.edu.co
95
Exceso de confianza y optimismo en las decisiones de presupuesto de capital
ABSTRACT
As result of the literature review carried out as a research project, this article presents a
comparative analysis of the evaluation process of investment decisions from the viewpoint
of the traditional financial theory and a new complementary approach that arises from
Behavioral Corporate Finance, a growing research field which incorporates emotional and
cognitive influences with the purpose of obtaining better understanding with respect to
corporate decision making. In particular, we analyze the way that behavioral biases, ca-
lled overconfidence and optimism, systemically influence the process of capital budgeting.
Empirical evidence shows that these biases lead to overestimating the expected net cash
flows and underestimating their variances, resulting mainly in sub-optimal financial de-
cisions (i.e. overinvestment and excessive exposure to risk.), although they occasionally
create practices that add value to the company (i.e. speed in the execution of projects and
greater commitment). The paper makes recommendations aimed at correcting distortions
that psychological biases of overconfidence and optimism generate on the capital budge-
ting process.
Keywords: Corporate behavioral finance, Financial decision making, Optimism, Over-
confidence, Psychological bias.
RESUMO
Este artigo apresenta, como resultado da reviso de literatura efetuada como um projeto
de pesquisa, uma anlise comparativa entre o processo de avaliao de decises de in-
verso, desde a teoria financeira tradicional, e uma nova abordagem complementria que
surge desde as Finanas Corporativas baseadas no Comportamento (Behavioral Corporate
Finance), um campo crescente de pesquisa no qual se incorporam as influncias emocio-
nais e cognitivas com o fim de conseguir uma melhor compreenso respeito tomada de
decises empresariais. Analisa-se, em particular, a forma na que os vieses no comporta-
mento, denominados excesso de confiana e optimismo, influem de forma sistemtica no
processo de pressuposto capital. A evidncia emprica demonstra que ditos vieses levam a
sobrestimar os fluxos de caixa netos esperados e a subestimar suas varianas, o qual resul-
ta principalmente em decises financeiras subtimas (i.e. sobreinvestimento e excessiva
exposio ao risco), ainda que em ocasies originam tambm prticas que aportam valor
empresa (i.e. rapidez na execuo de projetos e maior compromisso). O trabalho expe
recomendaes para corrigir as distores que es vieses psicolgicos do excesso de con-
fiana e o optimismo geram sobre o processo de pressuposto de capital.
Palavras-chave: Excesso de confiana, finanas corporativas baseadas no comportamen-
to, otimismo, tomada de decises financeiras, vieses psicolgicos.
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