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TA 7465-RREG: Economics of Climate Change and Low Carbon

Growth Strategies in Northeast Asia

9-10 March 2010,


Seoul, Republic of Korea

Climate Change Studies in


Mongolia

Dr. DORJPUREV JARGAL


EEC Mongolia
Contents

• Climate change programs and policies in Mongolia


• Current Climate Change and projections
• Climate Change Impacts
• Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change
• Greenhouse Gas Emissions
• Mitigation Strategies to Climate Change
• Conclusions
Climate change programs and policies in Mongolia

• The Government of Mongolia signed the UNFCCC on June 12,


1992 at the Rio Summit and the Great Khural (Parliament) of
Mongolia ratified it on September 30, 1993.
• The Government of Mongolia ratified/accessed the Kyoto Protocol
on 15 December 1999

• The National Action Program on Climate Change (NAPCC) (approved


on 19 July 2000 by the Government of Mongolia)
• Mongolia’s Initial National Communication (prepared within the GEF
Climate Change Enabling Activity in 2001)
• Mongolia: Assessment Report on Climate Change 2009 (prepared by
Ministry of Nature, Environment and Tourism with support from UNEP and UNDP)
• Mongolia’s Second National Communication (under preparation)
• National Action Program on Climate Change 2010 (under preparation)
Current Climate Change
The climate of Mongolia is characterized by: long cold winter, short cool summer, low
precipitation, high temperature variability and a relatively long duration of sunshine

50 Temperature
3
Annual mean temperature (–9.0 0C)
0
– (+8.5 0C)
-3
45
Winter (January) (-15 0C) – (-340C).
-6
Summar (July) (+150C ) - (+300C)
-9
90 95 100 105 110 115 120
-12
Annual mean air temperature map, 0C.

450
400
50
350
Precipitation
300 Mountainous regions 300-450 ìì
250
Steppe regions 150-300 ìì
45
200
150
Gobi desert regions 50-150 ìì
100
75
90 95 100 105 110 115 120 50
25

Annual total Precipitation, mm


Source: P. Gomboluudev :Climate Change Projection, 2009
Current Climate Change
Climate change trend over Mongolia since 1940-2007 (difference from 1961-1990, degree)
3 .0

2 .0

The annual mean


1 .0

temperature of
0 .0
Mongolia increased
- 1 .0
by 2.14 0C during the
- 2 .0 last 70 years
- 3 .0
19 40 1 94 5 1 950 195 5 1 960 19 65 1 97 0 19 75 19 80 1 98 5 19 90 199 5 2 000 20 05

a. Annual mean temperature, degree C


100

80

60

40

20
The annual
0

-2 0
precipitation reduced
-4 0 by 7% from 1940
-6 0

-8 0

-100
194 0 1 945 19 50 195 5 1 960 19 65 197 0 1 975 19 80 1 98 5 19 90 19 95 2 00 0 20 05

b. Annual precipitation amount, mm


Source: Mongolia: Assessment report on Climate Change 2009
Climate Change Projection

a) Summer mean temperature and b) summer mean precipitation time series by Global Climate Model HadCM3, 1900-2099

a) Winter mean temperature and b) winter mean precipitation time series by Global Climate Model HadCM3, 1900-2099

Source: Mongolia: Assessment report on Climate Change 2009


Climate Change Projection
Observed annual mean temperature, 1961-90
50
Hadley Center Regional
Climate Model is performed by
45
providing time dependent
boundary condition from its
Global Climate Model under
90 95 100 105 110 115 12 SRES A2 scenario.
6
Simulated annual mean temperature, 1961-90 Present climate simulation is
3 reasonable against observed
50
climate. But there are little bit
0 overestimations

45
It is projected annual mean
-3
temperature will be
90 95 100 105 110 115 120
increased. For example
-6 area, where temperature is
Projected annual mean temperature, 2071-2100 high than 60C, will be
-9 occupied almost whole
50 country in the end of the
-12 century.

45

90 95 100 105 110 115 120

Source: P. Gomboluudev :Climate Change Projection, 2009


Source:
Climate Change Impacts
Climate Change will have a significant impact on Mongolian
ecosystem and economic sectors
1. Impacts on ecosystem
• Landscape changes (during 1992-2002 area without grass increased by
46%, forest area decreased by 26%, water surface decreased by 38%)
• Water resources (2007 water inventory – 852 rivers, streams ( of total 5128)
and 1181 lakes and ponds (of total 3747) have dried up)
• Snow cover (how cover plays important role on the environment: it provides
insulation to protect the deep soil acts as water courses for wild and domestic
animals, however, if there is heavy snowfall (zud) which results in no food being
available for the animals)
• Permafrost (Source: P. Batiimaa and others :Climate Change impacts on water Resources , 2009)
Climate Change Impacts
1. Impacts on biophysical environment
• Desertification (Mongolia is one of the most arid countries in the world. Surface
land is very vulnerable to desertification. Desertification has become one of the extremely
specific natural disasters in Mongolia. According to some data sources, 70% of grassland of
Mongolian territory has been affected by decertification)

• Dust and sand storms


(The dust blowing days were 18.3
Annually between 1960-1969, but in
1980-1989 it has rise to 47.4 and in
2000-2007 it was reached to 57.1)

• Natural disaster
(The figure shows the frequency of
atmosphere related natural disasters
that occurred in Mongolia over the past
20 years. The trend shows an increased
frequency of severe weather conditions
and natural disaster occurrences)

Source: Mongolia: Assessment report on Climate Change 2009


Climate Change Impacts
2. Impacts on economic sectors
• Animal husbandry (The investigation shows that recent climate change
effects on pastoral livestock negatively which leads to reduce of livestock
productivity and impact on economic efficiency of animal husbandry. Negative
impact of changing grassland and weather conditions, especially during harsh
winter and spring seasons, will reduce productivity and quality, and would result
to possible loss of livestock)
• Agriculture (The wheat harvesting rate between 1986-2007 was decreased
by 0.28 centers/ha mostly because increase of number of extreme hot weather
days especially in July)
• Forestry (Current climate change significantly impacts forest resources and
growth. Forest area might decrease due to an expansion of the steppe and
desert zones. Besides this ecological impact, human negative impacts such as
forest fire, logging and livestock production have significantly intensified the
process of forest transforming into steppe, especially during the last 100 years)
Adaptation to Climate Change
Adaptation strategies and approaches:
• Strategic natural resources conservation
• Maximize ways of strengthening animal bio-capacity to cope with changing
ecosystems
• Strengthen capacities and opening opportunities for livelihood in currently
and potentially affected communities
• Improve the economic sustainability of livestock production and the
ecological sustainability of natural resources used in livestock production
focusing on improving feed availability to livestock
• Intensify production, supply and security of food and primary domestic
commodities to be affordable and available to affected population
• Expand public information and forecasting to improve level of understanding
of climate and weather extremes and emergency situations

Source:
Greenhouse gas emissions
GHG Emissions in CO2-eq by gases for the period 1990-2006

Carbon dioxide is the most significant source of the greenhouse gases in


Mongolia’s inventory with a share of 50.4 % of the total CO2-eq emissions in
2006 followed by methane, which comprises 41.8%. The remaining gases
(N2O, HFCs) make up 7.8% of Mongolia’s GHG Emissions.
Greenhouse gas emissions
Contribution to total CO2-eq emissions by sector for 1990 and 2006

In 2006, the energy sector (including stationary energy, transport and fugitive emissions) was
the largest source of greenhouse gas emissions comprising 65.4% of total GHG emissions in
CO2-equivalent. The second largest source of GHG emissions was agriculture sector (41.4%).
For Land use change and forestry sector, the total CO2 removals were 13.3% due to increase
of the area of abandoned lands and reduce of newly cultivated land. Other relatively minor
sources currently include emissions from industrial process and waste sector.
Greenhouse gas emissions

Contribution to methane emissions by sector for 1990 and 2006

The main contributor to the total methane emissions is the agriculture sector with about
92- 93% of the total methane emissions The second biggest contribution comes from the
energy sector with about 5-6%, while all other sectors are contributing with less then 2%
in total.
Greenhouse gas emissions
Total Greenhouse gas emissions

In 1990, Mongolia’s net GHG emissions were 22532 thousand tones CO2-eq. and the net GHG
emissions were reduced up to 14850 thousand tones in 1995. The reduction of net GHG emissions
is mostly due to socio-economic slowdown during the transition period from socialism to market
economy. But during this period the methane emissions are increased due to increase of livestock
population. The HFCs are increased for the period 1990-2006 due to increase of refrigerators and
vehicles with air conditions.
Greenhouse gas emissions
Per Capita Emissions

If compare with the other developed and developing countries, the total GHG emissions
is small, but per capita and per GDP emissions is high. Mongolia’s per capita emissions
were 6.0 tons /person, which is almost 2 times more than developing countries average.
Per GDP CO2 emissions are 10 times more than world average
Mitigation strategies to Climate change
Mitigation options
(The energy sector of Mongolia is the largest contributor to GHG emissions. The cold continental
climate and use of coal contribute to high rate of emissions per capita and domestic production)
Energy sector
• Increase Renewable options
– Hydro Power Plants
– Wind farms
– PV and solar heating
• Efficiency improvement of Heating boilers
– Efficiency improvement of existing HOB,
– Install boilers new design with high efficiency
– Converting steam boilers into small capacity thermal power plant
• Improvement of household stoves and furnaces
– Modernization of existing household stoves and furnaces
– Implementation of new design household stoves and furnaces
– Change of fuels for household stoves and furnaces
• Improving of coal quality
– Coal briquette
– Application of effective mining technology and facilities, including
selective mining, dewatering system coal handling plant.
• Nuclear Power Plants
• CHP improvement options
– Efficiency improvement
– Reduction of internal use
Mitigation strategies to Climate change
Non-energy sector
• Building • Agriculture
– Building insulation improvements – To limit the increase of the total
– Building standards number of livestock by increasing
– Improvements of district heating the productivity of each type of
system in buildings animals, especially cattle.
– Lighting efficiency improvements – To promote industrial livestock
production enterprises
• Industry
• Land use change and forestry
– Technology change (Dry process of
cement industry and others) – Natural regeneration
– Motor efficiency improvements – Plantation forestry
– Lighting efficiency improvements – Agro-forestry
– Promotion of ESCO activities – Bioelectricity

• Transport • Waste
– Vehicle fuel combustion efficiency – Landfill methane recovery
improvement – Comprehensive waste management
– Improvements road conditions – Alternative waste management,
– Taxes on vehicle purchase, such as recycling
registration, use and motor fuels,
road and parking pricing
Mitigation strategies to Climate change

Implementation possibilities of Greenhouse Gas mitigation projects

• Mongolia is one of the potential host countries of CDM projects.


Despite a small population and economy, Mongolia’s GHG emissions
are relatively large, due mostly to climatic factors (cold winters). In
particular, there is considerable scope to use renewable energy
resources to replace fossil fuels, to reduce fossil fuel input by
replacing outdated heating equipment with more efficient heating
equipment, and to increase energy efficiency in supply and demand
sectors.
• CDM can play an important role in the sustainable development of
Mongolia’s economy – CDM can help to reduce pollution, make the
economy more competitive, create employment, and reduce poverty.
Especially given Mongolia climatic conditions, the potential benefits to
Mongolia from CDM can be relatively large.
• Recently the several projects are approved and registered as CDM
projects
Summary of CDM projects in Mongolia

Name of project Type of Expected Project Host country CDM Project development
And project status project CER, Situation and participants
And CO2e/yr organization
methodology
Taishir Small scale 29,600 Construction Mongolia, Energy Research and
11 MW Hydropower Hydropower is finished Ministry of Development Center
project project Fuel and (ERDC)
(Registered) Energy Mitsubishi UFJ Securities
AMS-I.D. (MFE) Co., Ltd.

Taishir Small scale 30,000 Construction Mongolia, ERDC/Mongolia


12 MW Hydropower is finished MFE Mitsubishi UFJ Securities
Hydropower project project Co., Ltd./ Japan
(Registered)
AMS-I.D.
Salkhit Wind Farm, Wind project 182,000 Under Mongolia, NEWCOM/ Carbon
50 kW starting of NEWCOM Resource Management
(At validation) ACM2 construction

A retrofit programe Energy 11,904 The project Mongolia, Mongol Zuukh XXI
for decentralized efficiency has been Ministry of ltd./MongoliaProkon Nord
heating stations in project partially Mature and Energiesysteme GmbH,
Mongolia. carried out Environment Leer/ Germany
(Registered) (AMS II.B.)
Conclutions
• Climate change is already a fact in Mongolia. Temperature due to global warming
in Mongolia has increased at least 2.14oC since 1940 and is projected to increase
up to 5oC by end the 21st Century.
• Depending on the specific geographical and climatic conditions, Mongolia might be
more heavily influenced by the global climate change. The impacts of climate
change on the ecological system and the natural resources would be dramatic
affecting directly almost all sectors of the national economy and all spheres of
social life.
• Therefore, climate change response measures would help to adapt to climate
change and to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions in order to meet the
requirements of the sustainable development strategies of Mongolia. Climate
change will influence directly the achievement of the Millennium Development
Goals of Mongolia.
• The Government of Mongolia pays close attention to climate change issues and
has been undertaking actions to address challenges posed by climate change, in
particular on adaptation and mitigation.
• Mongolia is active in establishing a Sub-regional cooperation among the North-east
Asia Sub-region on matters of climate change and common development agenda.
Thank you for attention