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29
Boiled Coffee: An Arctic Example of Potential
Residual and Unmeasured Confounding in
Coffee Epidemiology
Lena Maria Nilsson
Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Nutritional Research, and Arctic Research Centre,
Ume University, Ume, Sweden
A good example of this is lung cancer. Smoking is became a habit of the upper class, coffee culture spread
universally accepted as a modifiable risk factor for lung quickly among the broad masses all over Norway, Sweden,
cancer, explaining a great majority of all cases.16 Still, and Finland.1921 A Scottish chemist, Thomas Thomson,
15% of the cases in men and 53% of the cases in women visiting Sweden in 1812, described the contemporary
are explained by other factors,16 of which coffee is one coffee culture like this: It is but doing the Swedes jus-
possible candidate. A recent meta-analysis showed that tice to say that their coffee is excellent, greatly preferable
an increase in coffee consumption of 2cups/day was to what is drunk in England You can get coffee in the
associated with a 14% increased risk of developing lung meanest peasants house, and it is always excellent22
cancer after adjusting for smoking.17 Surprisingly, how- One explanation for the rapidly growing demand for
ever, when merging the results for nonsmokers (three coffee was decreasing coffee prices because of increased
studies), there was a tendency of an inverse association: transatlantic coffee trade, which made this colonial
increased coffee consumption was associated with a beverage economically attractive to common people in
decreased risk for lung cancer. Supposing that the lat- comparison with locally produced beers and spirits.19,20
ter tendency reflects the true risk association, the deviant When coffee consumption was banned by authorities
main result could be explained by residual confounding during five different episodes, the latest from 1817 to
as follows: It is, as already mentioned, well known that 1822, large-scale smuggling supplied the consumers with
there is a covariance between consumption of coffee and the coveted item.20 An extensive use of coffee, even from
many lifestyle factors that are hazardous to ones health, a Scandinavian perspective, has been noted among Sami
such as smoking.10 The increased risk of developing lung people from the mid-1800s into modern times,1214,23
cancer among heavy consumers of coffee could then be with an exception for Russian Skolt Sami, who instead
explained by not adjusting for smoking and other haz- have developed a tea culture in accordance with Russian
ardous lifestyle factors to a sufficient extent or not at all. traditions.24 One could speculate whether the Northern
Consequently, the authors of this meta-analysis conclude Scandinavian Sami coffee culture may have its roots in
that their results should be interpreted with caution.17 involvement in the profitable legal and illegal coffee
In a cohort study in Vsterbotten County, a part of trade of the 1700 and 1800s. Spmi, the traditional area
Arctic Sweden, lung cancer was not associated with cof- of the Sami peoples, extends namely over the entirety
fee consumption in general.18 When coffee consumption of Northern Scandinavia (Figure 29.1), and for centuries
was stratified according to different brewing methods, Sami peoples have been naturally involved in extensive
however, an interesting and significant heterogeneity cross-border trade. Besides the smuggling episodes,
appeared: boiled coffee was positively associated with there are more examples of Arctic people defying bans
lung cancer, in line with the previously described meta- and intense moralistic anticoffee propaganda. During
analysis, whereas filtered coffee was not. To be more the severe food crisis of northern Sweden (18611867),
exact, men who drank boiled coffee four or more times authorities recommended that no poor relief should be
every day had a significant 122% increased risk of being offered to anyone seen drinking coffee. But coffee still
diagnosed with a carcinoma in the respiratory tract com- continued to be treated as staple food.23 More specifi-
pared with nondaily consumers. For women, the cor- cally, coffee consumption went into a temporary stagna-
responding risk increase was 29%. For filtered coffee, tion during this period, but after the crisis it continued
the tendency was opposite: all risk associations were
inverse, but none of them were statistically significant.18
The authors concluded that residual confounding due
to insufficient estimates of smoking and lifestyle factors
associated with boiled coffee likely played a role in these
results.18 Thus, to understand these results and others, a
deeper knowledge of Arctic Scandinavian boiled coffee
culture, and lifestyle factors associated with boiled cof-
fee, is essential.
FIGURE 29.2 Scandinavian boiled coffee. Preparation of boiled coffee in traditional and modern settings.
coffee.28 From a cancer perspective, diterpenes are sup- increased risk among people preferring boiled coffee.
posed to have a protective effect,36 and from a cardiovas- Women with a frequent intake of boiled coffee, in other
cular perspective they have a detrimental effect because words, four or more times per day, had a decreased risk
of the effect of increasing cholesterol levels.3739 An effect of breast cancer, whereas no significant association was
of increasing blood pressure also has been connected to confirmed among women with a corresponding intake
consumption of boiled coffee.40 Regarding other chemi- of filtered coffee. However, it is worth pointing out that
cal components, for example, caffeine, brewing method the number of cases among women having this frequent
has little effect. However, culture and individual pref- intake of boiled coffee was low. Moreover, some results
erences may still be of some importance. For example, deserve extra attention. For example, an increased risk
the grade of roasting affects the availability of many for myocardial infarction was found only in men who
coffee-specific components. The darker roasted coffee drank filtered coffee more than four times per day. Men
beans, the more components available,33 which means who consumed an equal amount of boiled coffee had
that filtered coffee, sold as medium or dark roasted, still a similar tendency but no statistically significant asso-
may contain more different coffee-specific phytochemi- ciation.30 Considering the proven cholesterol- and blood
cal substances, such as flavonoids and polyphenols, than pressure-increasing effects of boiled coffee compared to
boiled coffee, sold as light or medium roasted.33 filtered coffee, this result should rather have been the
opposite.3740 Residual or unmeasured confounding
due to lifestyle factors cannot be excluded. The obvious
29.5 RISK ASSOCIATIONS IN BOILED question is, what are the characteristics of the women
AND FILTERED COFFEE and men who drink boiled coffee at least four times a
day? What are the characteristics of the women and men
Results from studies distinguishing between boiled who have a correspondingly high consumption of fil-
and filtered coffee are summarized in Tables 29.1 and tered coffee?
29.2. Table 29.1 exemplifies the first research question
where such a distinction was at issue, namely the cho-
lesterol-increasing effect of coffee in four cross-sectional 29.6 LIFESTYLE FACTORS ASSOCIATED
studies from Finland, Sweden, and Norway. All of these WITH CONSUMPTION OF BOILED AND
studies confirm that a high intake of boiled coffee is FILTERED COFFEE
associated with increased cholesterol levels in humans
and that this effect is much weaker or absent in those Coffee consumption is an integral part of daily life all
who consume high amounts of filtered coffee.15,29,41,42 over Scandinavia. It is considered impolite not to offer
Four studies of associations between boiled and filtered a visitor a cup of coffee, no meal is complete without a
coffee and some lifestyle-related diseases, namely myo- final cup of coffee, and in workplaces there is a general
cardial infarction, diabetes, and cancer, are summarized pattern of two regular coffee breaks per day (in Swedish
in Table 29.2. In two of these studies, associations are fikaraster), when everybody gathers and chats.23 In larger
similar in filtered and boiled coffee31,43; more precisely, indoor workplaces, filtered coffee is most likely enjoyed
there is an increased risk of myocardial infarction in a this way three times per day. Among people with out-
cohort of non-Arctic Swedes31 and a decreased risk of door occupations such as forestry, hunting, fishing,
type 2 diabetes43 in a nationwide study in Norway. In and reindeer herding, boiled coffee is a more common
the other two, some of the associations were found in choice.35 Positive connotations to this kind of tradi-
people who drank either boiled or filtered coffee. For tional lifestyle have recently been used in advertising of
example, both in pancreas and lung cancer (the latter a new coffee brand, an advertising campaign criticized
was described earlier in Section 29.2), risk associations by indigenous organizations for its stigmatizing under-
in different coffee types opposed each other, with an tones (Figure 29.4).
Coffee and serum Cross-sectional 5647 men, 6347 Age, BMI, physical activity, 9cups/day vs 0cups/ Positive association Yes, but weaker 29
total cholesterol women smoking day
Cross-sectional 5704 men, women Age, BMI, smoking, serum Boiled coffee Higher Lower 41
study total -glutamyltransferase, index consumers vs filtered
of saturated fat intake, physical coffee consumers
activity
Coffee and blood Population-based 1625 men, women Age, diastolic blood pressure, 4cups/day vs Positive in boiled coffee None 15
cholesterol cross-sectional BMI, fiber intake, fat intake, >5cups/day
total coffee intake
Coffee and Cross-sectional 14,168 men, 14,859 BMI, number of cigarettes, salt 4cups/day Increased cholesterol Lower cholesterol 42
cholesterol, study women and fat intake, time since last increase, only significant
triglycerides, and meal, physical activity in women
blood pressure
This table summarizes results from epidemiological studies in Scandinavia comparing the cholesterol-increasing effect of boiled and filtered coffee. BMI, body mass index.
269
270
TABLE 29.2 Coffee Type as a Determinant of Health
Number of Confounders Included Association with Boiled Association with Filtered
Myocardial Population-based 1171 men, 472 Age, hospital catchment >9cups/day vs Increased risk of MI in Increased risk of MI in men 31
infarction case-control study women area, smoking <3cups/day men No associations in women
Similar tendency in
women
Nested case/referent 1353 men, 315 Smoking, education, 1time/day vs No associations in men Increased risk of MI in men 30
study women apolipoprotein B-to- 23times/day and Unstable results in No associations in women
apolipoprotein A ratio, 4times/day women
BMI, hypertension,
sedentary lifestyle
Type 2 diabetes Cross-sectional 171,414 men, Year of birth, sex, BMI, >9cups/day vs Decreased risk Decreased risk 43
190,631 women smoking, education, <1cup/day
physical activity
Incident cancer Cohort study 32,425 men, 32,178 Age, sex, BMI, smoking, <1time/day vs Increased risk for (a) and (b) not confirmed 30
women education, recreational 13times/day and respiratory tract (a) and Decreased risk for breast cancer
physical activity 4times/day pancreas (b) cancers, (c) only in postmenopausal
decreased risk for breast women
cancer (c) in women
The table shows results from Scandinavian epidemiological studies distinguishing between consumption of boiled and filtered coffee. BMI, body mass index; MI, myocardial infarction.
29.6Lifestyle Factors Associated with Consumption of Boiled and Filtered Coffee 271
In a previously published partial least squares analy-
sis focusing on known risk factors for cancer, consump-
tion of boiled coffee was associated with male sex,
increased intake of fat, decreased intake of vegetables,
and low education.35 Increased consumption of filtered
coffee was associated with smoking, higher education
levels, households of only a single person, increased age,
and high intake of alcohol, vitamin D, and selenium.35
This study was performed in a Northern Swedish pop-
ulation, and it was based on lifestyle and dietary data
from the Vsterbotten Intervention Programme (VIP)
cohort.44 The VIP is a huge population-based survey of
the inhabitants of the county of Vsterbotten in Arctic
Sweden, and it has been ongoing since 1985.44
Table 29.3 shows previously unpublished Spearman
correlations for 62,582 daily consumers and nondaily
consumers of different kinds of coffee from the VIP
cohort. Boiled and filtered coffees are correlated mutu-
ally and in relation to age, height, and intake of macronu-
trients. Before studying these results, it is worth noting
that in data sets of this large magnitude, even minor
correlations may become statistically significant. First,
consumption of boiled coffee is significantly negatively
correlated with consumption of filtered coffee. That is,
there is an obvious collinearitythe more boiled coffee
consumed, the less filtered coffee people drinkand the
correlation coefficient is relatively large: 0.288 (P0.001).
Further, daily consumers of boiled coffee are somewhat
older and somewhat shorter compared with nondaily
FIGURE 29.4 Coffee culture as a purchase incentive. This adver- consumers. They have a higher intake of fat and lower
tising image, whose brand and identity have been masked by the intakes of carbohydrates, protein, and alcohol (corre-
author with the Swedish word for brand, varumrke, shows how
lation coefficients=0.112, 0.086, 0.056, and 0.042,
Sami coffee culture has been used as a quality guarantee for a new
coffee brand. The advertising text above the man dressed in traditional respectively). In contrast, daily consumers of filtered cof-
Sami clothes reads: New varumrkeacceptable but queer, if you ask fee drink more alcohol, have a higher intake of protein,
me! At the bottom the text reads Good taste from Stockholm. and have close to zero (but somewhat lower) intakes of
Consumption
The table shows Spearman correlations for boiled and filtered coffee mutually and in relation to age, height, and dietary Factors in the population-based Vsterbot-
ten cohort of Northern Sweden, sorted according to the magnitude of the correlation with boiled coffee.
N=62,582 men and women from the Vsterbotten Intervention Programme in Northern Sweden.
carbohydrates and fat (correlation coefficients=0.167, stress at work, 10% less likely to hunt or fish, 7% more
0.063, 0.015, and 0.008, respectively; see Table 29.3). likely to have a postsecondary education, 2% more likely
Table 29.4 shows previously unpublished logistic to sometimes perform physical activity in exercise clothes,
regressions of lifestyle-related events among daily con- and, among women, are 8% less likely to have had a first
sumers of boiled and filtered coffee compared with non- full-term pregnancy at the age 20 or earlier than nondaily
daily consumers. Daily consumption of coffee is more consumers of filtered coffee (Table 29.4).
common among men than among women but does not
differ significantly between consumers of boiled and fil-
tered coffee (P for heterogeneity=0.591). All other life- 29.7DISCUSSION
style-related events differ significantly between boiled
and filtered coffee (P for heterogeneity0.001). Smoking This is the first interdisciplinary description of the
is the only event that has an equal direction of the associa- boiled coffee culture of the Scandinavian Arctic. It eluci-
tion in both types of coffee. A daily consumer of boiled dates the complexity of interpreting coffee epidemiology,
coffee is 49% more likely to be a smoker compared with especially in a setting where individual coffee choice may
a nondaily consumer. The corresponding number for fil- affect the nature of the exposure in focus as well as the pat-
tered coffee is 28%. All other lifestyle factors differ dia- tern of residual or unmeasured confounding related to it.
metrically from each other in terms of the direction of In addition to the lifestyle factors described by data
the associations. People who drink boiled coffee daily from the VIP cohort, there are many more lifestyle-
are 46% more likely to occupy themselves with regular related differences that could be captured if the data set
leisure-time hunting and fishing, 24% more likely to lack had been specially designed to depict the boiled coffee
a postsecondary education, 14% more likely to come from culture. A desirable question would, for example, ask
a rural area, 13% more likely to never perform physical about the frequency of occasions (e.g., times per week)
activity in exercise clothes, 8% more likely to have a work- when boiled coffee is prepared over an open fire. If the
ing situation without time-related stress, and, among increased risk of lung and pancreas cancer (only found
women are 34% more likely to have had a first full-term in consumers of boiled coffee) could be statistically
pregnancy at the age of 20 or earlier than people who do adjusted for confounding by exposure to wood smoke,
not consume boiled coffee daily. Daily consumers of fil- risk associations may have been different.
tered coffee reflect an opposite pattern: they are 13% more Similarly, it is well known that reproductive factors
likely to come from an urban area and have time-related have a significant influence on the risk of breast cancer and
(N=62,582 persons) Number of Events (%) Boiled Coffee Filtered Coffee Heterogeneitye (P)
Events
Regular leisure-time hunting/ 17,830 (28.0) 1.46 (1.411.50) 0.90 (0.870.92) 0.001
fishinga
First full-term birth at an early 4039 (13.9) 1.34 (1.251.43) 0.92 (0.860.98) 0.001
ageb (only women)
Living in a rural areac 26,596 (42.5) 1.14 (1.121.17) 0.87 (0.850.89) 0.001
No regular physical activity in 41,648 (66.5) 1.13 (1.101.15) 0.98 (0.961.00) 0.001
exercise clothes
Logistic regressions of lifestyle-related events among daily consumers of boiled and filtered coffee compared with nondaily consumers in the population-based
Vsterbotten cohort of Northern Sweden, sorted according to the magnitude of the association with boiled coffee.
aDefined as leisure-time fishing or hunting at least every month.
bDefined as first full-term birth at the age of 20 or earlier.
cDefined as not living in the communities of Ume and Skellefte.
dDefined as never or rarely having time-related stress at work.
eHeterogeneity between boiled and filtered coffee calculated by a chi-square test. P<0.05 indicates heterogenic results.
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