Is There An Earthquake

S13A-2516
Migration Global Pattern? UnB
Aroldo M. M. dos Santos, George S. Frana, Andr G. da Silveira, Gregorio V. Frigeri, Giuliano S. Marotta
aroldomaciel@gmail.com georgesand@unb.br agsgalvan@gmail.com gregoriofrigeri@gmail.com marotta@unb.br
Grupo de Pesquisar Sismicidade Induzida e Natural/CNPq Observatrio Sismolgico - Universidade de Braslia
Universidade de Cuiab
Abstract Identifying the Earthquake Migration 4 - Santiago Del Estero to Tonga [Flinn and
Engdahl regions - Santiago Del Estero, 132 - Santiago Del Seismic Obs. Obs.
Travel time Travel time
Distances Distances
Difference
Difference
of magnitudes
Migration Global Pattern
Earthquake migration patterns before large earthquake N Visual Aut. (days) of magnitudes
Estero Prov., Arg., Tonga,171 - South Of Fiji Islands, 173 Pattern Visual Aut. Visual () Visual () Aut.
(days) Visual
were proposed by Mogi, (1968). The existence of the cor- Tonga Islands and 174 Tonga Islands Region].
We used the data from the catalogs covering a time peri- Xizang
relation between earthquakes over distances that show 1 15 171 1.070.16 2.532.18 162.321.49 155.694.09 0.030.15 -0.020.30
od from 1998 to 2011 and selected four seismic patterns Bolvia
probable global interdependence is a theme that is cer- Bolvia
that had almost constants and similar magnitudes. Each 7 157 0.680.15 2.312.05 160.651.03 155.574.03 0.030.13 0.020.31
tainly one of the most intriguing in field of seismology. Xizang
Seismic pattern was named according to a Flinn-Engdahl 2 Fiji - Peru
In this job, we will present the phenomenology of earth- 44 0.280.07 103.260.81 0.080.06
Region (Flinn et al., 1974). For this work we present the Fiji171
quake migration global seismic pattern empirically, in or- 255 0.410.33 98.081.41 0.020.30
migrations (Figure 1) of Vanuatu-North Japan, Fiji-Peru, to Peru
der to ensure statistically the correlation of long range and Fiji 181
Bolivia-Xizang and Santiago-Tonga. 411 0.320.27 98.661.31 0.050.30
lead to confrontation these seismic patterns. We used the to Peru
USGS catalog. We found that the pair of events that have Parameters and Correlations 3
Vanuatu
Japan
49 625 0.200.05 0.480.47 59.241.29 59.061.67 -0.200.06 -0.180.30
a good correlation are confirmed statistically. To define the precision of the selected seismic patterns we Santiago
As Shebalin (1996) shown the earthquake chain, we show defined mathematical models to establish a linear correla- 4
Tonga
5 24 20.649.61 0.420.47 112.694.47 99.321.67 -0.500.430 -0.130.40
that first stage of the earthquake prediction correlation tion for seismic events pairs based on observations of time 8 0.610.48 98.651.44 -0.160.18
for large distances. (T1 e T2), epicenter [P1(l1,j1) and P2(l2,j1)], depth(h1
and h2) and magnitude (M1 and M2). Thus, were defined
as parameters to be determined the variations between
Introduction distance of epicenter, magnitude, and travel time between
Earthquake migration patterns before large earthquake the events (T, M and D).
were proposed by Mogi (1968) and the existence of the cor- T2 = T1 + T (01) Manually collected data is used as the basis for automation and consolidation of probable seismic migration using the
relation between earthquakes over distances show proba- P2 = P1 + D (02) Flinn-Engdahl region as accurately as possible. It was observed that the pairs of consequent events over magnitude are
ble global interdependence (Romanowicz 1993, Shebalin M2 = M1 + M (03) well correlated. Only migration 4, manually collected, showed inconsistency with the value obtained automatically, how-
2006). Others studies of spatio-temporal changes in seis- Assuming that the parameters are independent of each ever it was still possible to observe a probable migration pattern. The data collection showed that the migration path 1
has forward and reverse, with automated values greater than the average collected manually, one for the direct path with
micity prior to large earthquakes (Gutenberg and Rich- other, we used the mean and standard deviation as sta- an average travel time of 2.5 days and 2.3 for the reverse path. The other migrations demonstrated values below 0.6 days
ter, 1954; Keilis-Borok and Malinovskaya, 1964; Prozorov tistical information for the pair events, and as criteria for (~ 14 hours), it can be directly correlated with the distance of migration. Migration 2 was separated, as they are in dif-
and Schreider, 1990; Shaw et al., 1997; Jaume and Sykes, selecting event pairs automatically we used the standard ferent regions Flinn-Engdahl, however did not show big difference. Migration 3 remained with the manual collection
1999; Keilis-Borok, 2003, Wu et al., 2008) also show the deviation as the threshold of the selected data. and migration 4, was separated according to depth, with a low number of observations, but we can infer that the travel
evidences of long-range correlation to large earthquakes. time is greater for those depths. Graphs were made Ncum (cumulative number of earthquake the day versus days), em-
phasizing the probability of migration patterns. The next step is to test the correlation between various parameters to
This theme is certainly one of the most intriguing in field
of seismology, and might explain this probable correla- Results ensure the migration of real events and set more migration paths.

tion and identify the patterns earlier proposed.
Objective
We intended to prove the hypothesis that earthquakes and
seismic migration may be related to different points in
long distances around the world MOGI (1968). From this
point the seismic migration patterns could be identified,
allowing its identification before the major earthquakes
occur. One can also identify the existence of correlation
between these earthquakes over distances, showing prob-
able global interdependence.
There were two processes, the first by visual observation
(manual) where pairs of events from the catalogue (from
2004-2011) were selected, and the second was through the
same catalogue, but with automatically selected pairs of
events, considering only the first subsequent event (1998
to 2011), and then determining the parameters (Table 1).
In this work we separated four migration patterns:
Migration 1 - Xizang to Bolivia [Flinn and Engdahl regions
- Xizang, 305 (Western Xizang-India Border Region) and
306 (Xizang), Bolivia, 124 (Chile-Bolivia border region)
and 125 (Southern Bolivia)].
Migration 2 - Fiji to Peru [Flinn and Engdahl regions - Fiji,
171 South of Fiji Islands and 181 - Fiji Islands Region,
Peru, 108 - Off Coast Of Northern Peru, 109 - Near Coast
References
Flinn, E.A., Engdahl, E.R. and Hill, A.R., 1974, Seismic and geographical regionalization,
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Conclusion
The study of earthquakes forecasting/prediction seemed to be a path without solution, bringing several attempts to
find consistent predictions, such as the precursors of major events, which seemed to be just a regional solution with-
out demonstrating a global effect correlation. Recently, a new methodology has been identified in earthquake forecast,
crediting a new step for seismology. Thus, this work aims to a new understanding of the behavior of earthquakes based
on empirical observation of seismic catalogues of the leading world seismology centers such as European Mediterra-
nean Seismological Centre (EMSC), National Earthquake Information Center United Stated Geological Survey (NE-
IC-USGS), Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology (IRIS), German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ)
etc.
The seismic migration model proposed is still under development. The monitoring results found on the websites of
USGS, were fundamental to the research. Doing the opposite direction to the current research models, using the prac-
tice as a means of empirical evidence, along with the media, we forced a deeper inquiry regarding our problem: Is There
An Earthquake Migration Global Pattern?

Earthquake Migration
Global Pattern
We consider the earthquake migration patterns, pairs of
events with similar magnitudes and time variation, con-
sidering only the main events without using the presence
of aftershocks. After selecting the patterns, we established
linear correlations between migration events based on ob-
servation of time, epicenter, depth and magnitude.
Of Northern Peru, 110 - Peru-Ecuador Border Region,
111 Northern Peru, 112 Peru-Brazil Border Region, 113
Western Brazil, 114 Off Coast Of Peru, 115 Near Coast
Of Peru, 116 Central Peru, and 117 Southern Peru].
Migration 3 - Vanuatu to Japan [Flinn and Engdahl re-
gions - Vanuatu, 185 Vanuatu Islands Region and 186
Vanuatu Islands, Japan, 226 Near West Coast Of Hons-
hu, 227 Eastern Honshu, 228 Near East Coast Of Hons-
hu, 229 Off East Coast Of Honshu and 230 Near S. Coast
Of Honshu].
Acknowledgments
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We would like to thank the staff of Quake Red Alert, di-
Prozorov, A.G., Schreider, S.Yu., 1990. Real time test of the long- range aftershock algorithm as
a tool for mid-term earthquake prediction in southern California. Pure Appl. Geophys. 133,329
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of this article. We would also like to thank the teachers
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