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4 th International Logistics and Supply Chain

Management Congress RISK MANAGEMENT IN
LOGISTICS

Conference Paper December 2006

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 RISK MANAGEMENT IN LOGISTICS

Arzu Karaman1 and smail Duymaz2

Abstract
Every business function is associated with opportunities and threats because of the uncertainties about future
developments. Logistics chain is also affected by this dynamic medium. In every ring of the chain, there is a serious
threat potential due to the internal and external supplier or customer. The problem is the uncontrollable nature of
risks in product/information flow and the inability of managing risks.
Because logistics is cross functional when compared with other basic functions, the emergence of logistics risks
can range from the first supply source to point of sales (PoS) that covers all areas, processes and actors. The
emerging risks can originate from inside or outside the firm. When classifying the risks in logistics, speculative
(emerging from management behaviors) risks should also be taken into account as well as real risks
(damage/harm), risk of loss, and risk of not to take advantage of opportunities.
Another classification of risks can be made by the risks importance and weight as being minor/harmless or as
being major risks that threaten the survival of the firm. Risks in logistics systems can be input, transformation and
output risks; or can be strategic, tactic, and operational risks. Logistics management is responsible for the
management of these risks per se.

Keywords: Risk Management, Logistics, Supply Chain Management

1. Introduction
Both as a business function and an industry, the importance of logistics is continuously increasing. But parallel
to this increase, logistics security is becoming to be a more critical and important competition parameter for all
actors (companies) within the logistics chain (Pfohl, 2003: 49). There are many benefits of being in a logistics
chain, but it can also bring some risks to the companies (Hallikas, Virolainen &Tuominen, 2002: 45). The increasing
expectations and requirements of customers force both the parties who are responsible for logistics function and the
logistic service providers to be more provident against the possible risks. Also there is an increasing pressure
derived from laws. For example, the 9/11 terrorist attack is a milestone for the firms and they learned a lot from it
(Guinipero & Eltantawy, 2004: 698; Pfohl, 2003: 49). After the attack, the prevention of terrorism act directly
influences the material flow processes in national and international scale, and thereby, with these new and radical
legal measures taken, the cost of logistics security has increased. All parties within the logistics chain have turned
out to be vulnerable to such pressures of cost, and are forced to undertake new and additional responsibilities.
On the other side, changes increase uncertainties. The risks emerging from the uncertainties in the decisions of
management have increased and it will possibly increase in the future, because the gap between being ready for the
risks and the ability to overcome these risks is increasing from day to day. This is a result of increasing dynamism
and complexity of markets. While the logistics risks globalize and become more various, the logistics costs will
increase because of this globalization and variety. In this paper, the sources of risks that are related to logistics risk
management, types of risks, the steps of logistics risk management, and new measures employed in preventing the
risks will be discussed (Pfohl, 2003: 49).

2. Risks and Risk Sources in Logistics

Logistics firms are confronting with various risks today. These risks can either emanate from the firm or the
environment in which the firm operates. World is changing and these changes create new risk sources (Guinipero &
Eltantawy, 2004: 698). In this part risks and risk sources in logistics will be discussed.

2.1 Risks and Uncertainty

The concepts of uncertainty and risk seem close, but they suggest different weights for decision makers. Both
have threats and dangers, which may possibly create loss or damage and threaten the firm to attain its objectives.
Where there is an uncertainty, there are also unforeseen events and one must constantly act with a certain security
margin. All uncertainties create risks and therefore hide certain threat potentials.
If there is an impossibility to guess the realization or results of any event that is related to the business, this
situation is named as an uncertainty. Uncertainty exists due to factors like changes in markets, technology,

1
Yildiz Technical University, Turkey, +90 212 2597070, akaraman@yildiz.edu.tr
2
Yildiz Technical University, Turkey, +90 212 2597070, duymaz@yildiz.edu.tr

4th International Logistics and Supply Chain Management Congress

competitors, political issues, and governmental regulations (Wu, Blackhurst & Chidambaram, 2006: 350; Pfohl,
2003: 49). As for the risks, decision makers may either know about the possible results of the event or guess the
possibility of realization of the results. Uncertainties cannot be managed but risks can be managed and controlled
by means of preliminary measures. By using preliminary measures, it is possible to avoid risks or protect oneself
against risk and thereby minimize or control the damages caused by the risk. By fastening the seat belt or using an
airbag, it is possible to avoid injuries, or limit the effects of any risk by having insured against a possible damage.
The risks against which no precaution has been taken or which are not insured always do have a cost. From that
point of view, controlling risks is a must for controlling costs.
The gap between the market dynamics and business decisions, and the skills to response such dynamics in a
short time is increasing. This requires the expansion of the management and control systems and their development.
Thereby, it is assumed that the threats and opportunities in the business environment can be seen. For limiting the
risks in long-term, the tool of controlling is used. In spite of this, the uncertainties in the business decisions have
not been eliminated yet. Therefore, special importance should be given to the ability to respond changes in their
environment in a short time, in other words the flexibility (Pfohl, 2003: 49).

2.2 Logistics Risks and Risk Sources

Each firm intends to maximize its benefits in an environment with a certain level of risks. In other words, it
wants to create a certain level of benefit with minimum level of risks. Risks generally impose costs, and therefore,
each firm is forced to make risk-benefit analyses. This fact is also valid for the logistics industry. Uncertainty and
insecurity have always created risks for businesses. In theory and practice, it is not just a coincidence that
researchers have focused on the procurement risks in supply. At the point we have arrived today, the radical changes
of the global conditions as well as the dynamism in the markets, the logistics risks are not only considered from the
point of businesses, but rather on supply chains or within logistics networks.
Logistic risks are facts (results) related to the scope and magnitude of the loss that would be caused by threat
factor(s) depending on the considered perception of threat. In many cases, the magnitude of the loss that could be
caused by the logistics risk factors and the probability of loss can only be guessed. The probability of emergence of
a loss may be derived from frequency and time period of the threat, and the probabilities and possibilities of
avoiding or limiting the loss. For that purpose, threat analyses and risk evaluations are carried out.

2.3 Classification of Logistics Risks

Businesses may deviate from planned results in various functions (finance, human resources, production, supply,
and sales) and as well as in the logistics function due to various internal and external factors. These deviations could
either be a real risk (risk of damage/loss) or a speculative risk (the risk emerging from business behaviors). From the
narrower point of view, risk always contains the threat of damage or loss.
The risks in logistics function could be categorized according to various criteria (Essig, 2004: 444; Heil, 2004: 5-
13; Schulte, 2005: 691; Farny, 1996: 1798-1806). Depending on the degree of risks in the field of logistics, they
could be minor or major or tiny, medium level risks, or the ones threatening the existence of the business. The risks
in logistics can be strategic, tactical or operational (loss of employees, IT security, financial) depending on the level
of decision and time perspective. These risks may emerge from within or outside the business. Risks can also be
divided into two: insurable ones, and uninsurable ones.
The risks in logistics are input (labor, machinery & equipment, capital, material, energy, information etc.) risks,
transformation risks or output risks.
The most important risks in logistics are the flow risks in the sub-system of logistics transformation. The
efficiency of the flows depends particularly on transportation, transshipment, warehousing, material handling,
packaging/labeling, as well as the production volume and speed in the order finishing processes. The technical
infrastructure and standardization does have a critical role.
Flow risks could be listed as
information risks,
commodity risks,
financial risks, and
legal risks.
In the logistics chain, the material/information flow should be uninterrupted or should be handled with
minimum interruption. Therefore, the flow risks should be given special importance. To minimize the flow risks, the
processes should be established and operated in a transparent manner, and the number of interfaces in the process
should be minimized.
The risks in logistics could be listed depending on the business functions. Accordingly, the economic and
ecologic risks in the reverse logistics should be taken into account as much as the risks in inbound, production and
outbound logistics. The risk factors in input and transformation sub-systems will in turn threat or even damage the
outputs of the logistics system (i.e. service level, service quality etc.).
A distinction could also be made between macro and micro logistics risks. While natural and political/legal risks,
conjuncture fluctuations or shocks are macro risks; the others could be seen as micro risks. But as far as the concept
of supply chain in logistics is considered, in fact, it could be said that the risks in logistics are meta-logistics risks,

4th International Logistics and Supply Chain Management Congress

because no business in logistics is alone and independent from others and they cooperate with other businesses
(supplier or customer) to aim at a joint target, and realize their decisions and behaviors in a coordinated manner.

Schulte classifies the risk fields and subjects in logistics as given in Table 1 (Schulte, 2005: 692);

Table 1 Logistic Risk Fields and Risk Subjects

Risk Field Subject of The Risks

1. Market / Client
2. Supply / Provision in Manufacture
3. Ecology
4. Foreign Trade Legislations and
International Norms (Incoterms)
Sales losses due to failing to deliver products on time to customer,
Damage in corporate image: The customer's refusal to buy products/services
in the future,
Disruption of the customer's manufacturing process due to delayed deliveries
Slowing down/stopping of manufacturing due to failure to provide materials
timely
Interruptions in transportation of mass products/liquid products
Threats caused by accidents/damages that make a negative impact on
environment
The risks caused by failure to comply with rules/regulations/standards in
transportation, warehousing or transshipment
Failing to comply with social - economic - technical or legal standards
Foreign trade losses due to violating the foreign trade rules, country image
loss, monetary penalties, loss of customers, embargoes etc.

All risk fields and subjects of the risks can in turn emerge for any firm. Particularly the rule violations or
negligence in food and medicine sector can cause fatalities.

3. Risk Management in Logistics

3.1 Risk Management's Field of Interest

Risk Management is interested in systematic evaluation and domination of risks. Risk management has a vital
role for each business because each business faces many internal and external risks. A successful risk management
assists in making more rational decisions, reduces and controls total risks, supports a successful existence of a
business and in turn, increases the market value of the business.
The contributions of logistics risk management on the business success could be summarized as follows:
1. It is possible to avoid serious control weaknesses and prevent damages.
2. Financial losses, economic weaknesses and image weaknesses are limited.
3. Business targets are supported and facilitated.
4. "Shareholder Value" is increased.
5. The existence of the business is warranted in the long term.
Because logistics chain is always vulnerable to external and internal risks, the basic duty of logistics
management is directly related to management of such risks. Logistics chain optimization is governing the potential
logistic risks by
organization of consistent processes,
use of efficient information techniques,
efficient / effective cooperation with suppliers, customers and logistics companies (Schulte, 2005: 691).
Logistics risk management is a system including decisions or behaviors that determines logistic risks and
investigates their influences on functions for the purpose of prevention/protection. Its final purpose is developing
alternative action ways to minimize the risks against internal and external threats so that the business survives in a
reliable environment. Risk management in fact is a multi-disciplinary area. Operational Risk Management covers
the processes from packaging to shipment of a fixed or mobile product, selection of a suitable transportation type
and vehicles, and defining a suitable route or speed.

3.2 The Targets of Risk Management in Logistics

By making a successful risk management, the businesses can avoid and reduce risks, and have a better control on
this, while managing to live with the -remaining- risks. Preventing or limiting the risks or minimizing the damages
caused by them always imposes cost. With the increasing level of security, the cost of damage/loss increase, and, in
turn, the higher preventive measures increase the total cost.
The targets of risk management can be summarized as follows (Schulte, 2005: 693):
1. Provision of compliance of the business to the legal, cultural, economic and technical standards in relation
with its control and transparency,

4th International Logistics and Supply Chain Management Congress

 2. Determination and finding out of risk bearing developments timely and systematically, avoiding
from/protecting against them.
3. Increasing inner business transparency and improving the consciousness of risk for all employees
4. Preventing avoidance of managers against business targets and potential responsibilities

3.3 Potential Risk Fields in Logistics

The potential risk fields in logistics form a very large spectrum. Here, the construction of facilities (factories and
warehouses), technical equipment, vehicles/containers as well as operation and workpower risks or the
weak/vulnerable areas in the IT systems can be named as potential risk factors. With the modern follow-up and
monitoring systems employed today, logistics security services are in an enormous pace of development.
The risk factors may come out both from within or outside the business. With today's supply chain concept,
logistic risks are not based on business/company and dont consist of many parts, but are considered as a risk
management system beyond businesses, and people try to control the risks within a monitorable and transparent
environment with the help of modern information technologies.
From the point of the supply chain approach, the risk factors in logistics generally emerge from outside of the
control area of business, but from the network or chain where the business belongs (Corsten, & Gssinger, 2001: 51-
55). Because of this, the sources of risk should not only be taken into account on the business basis, but also they
should be analyzed from the point of chain/network. In order to minimize the space, time, quantity, and quality
deviations in the logistics system, the space-time coordination at the beyond business level becomes the most critical
function. In management and coordination of the chains and networks, the most significant factor is the information
flow. One can make use of information/communication technologies in providing the coordination beyond
businesses, and EDI finds its applications in various fields under varying norms. The global EDIFACT Standard on
industrial basis, EANCOM in consumables industry, ELFE, in telecommunication, ODETTE and VDA in
automobile industry and the SWIFT in banking industry are the fields of application.
According to supply chain approach, logistic risks should be considered not on the basis of business/company
but on the basis of supply chain, and solutions should be created accordingly. The most important risks in a supply
chain emerge due to
1. instability between demand and supply,
2. lack of information in information flow,
3. lack of adjustment of time/space, and
4. lack of coordination and all in return, expose stopping/waiting time in the interfaces and reduce the total
performance of supply chain.
The proper product cannot be at proper quantity and at proper place because of the risk factors caused by these
facts and these factors create instability between supply and demand. If supply is greater than demand, inventory
risks are unavoidable. On contrary, if supply is less than demand, unsatisfied customers and opportunity costs would
emerge. Disarrangement of time and place using incorrect/missing information would have a negative impact on the
outputs of the logistics system (i.e. service level, service quality etc) and would decrease the satisfaction of
customers.
Possible technical/communication based risks in management of logistics operations or economical risks can be
more easily managed. But all logistics operations are related to moving materials, human and information. The
object in movement (flow) always encounter to higher risks than the stopping ones. It is more difficult to protect
moving objects against potential threats and keep it under control. The specifications of moving objects and
containers, and transportation vehicles and their compliance with norms/standards are important as to the risk
potential and possibility. The tanker loaded with clean water and the one loaded with LPG do have varying levels of
risk with regard to technique and economy and ecology perspectives. From that point of view, "first security, than
movement" becomes a common principle in logistics.
The most important risk for moving objects is the interruption of flow. Because the interfaces that emerge in this
process are unprepared. By coordinating the material and information flow within the network/chain, it is possible to
minimize the risks arising from such interfaces. Furthermore, the moving vehicles, containers, materials or
information are vulnerable to outside effects. For example, the most vulnerable moments for a passenger plane is
while taking off or landing where ground attacks are most effective.

3.4 The Critical Importance of Logistics Objects in Logistics Risk Assessment

The economic, physical and chemical properties of materials and products, which are the flowing objects within
a logistics chain, do have a particular importance with regard to logistics risks. At this point, it is enough to think
about the transportation of inflammable items, frozen foods, medicines, critical energy source procured from long
distances, or the critical parts for the industry. Because of this, risk factors have always been taken into account in
the process of developing business strategies. While carrying out his first supply portfolio analysis, Kraljic (1985)
considered the importance of the supplied materials with regard to procuring risk and business success, and named
high risk and high value products as strategic products, and named the high risk products with a relatively lower
influence on success as bottleneck products (Kraljic, 1985: 9; Ehrmann, 2003: 261-262; Essig, 2004: 57-59,
Fortmann, 2000: 35-38).

4th International Logistics and Supply Chain Management Congress

 Contribution to Business Success
Low High
Supply Risk
Low Non-critical products Leverage products
High Bottleneck products Strategic products

3.5 The Steps of Risk Management Process in Logistics

As is the case with all other business function areas, the opportunities and threats (risks) within the logistics
industry should also be diagnosed and managed. The estimation and consideration of risks could be made according
to the facts listed below (Schulte, 2005:692):
1. The updated or futuristic data (information)
2. The expectations and targets of the evaluator person / team
3. Subjective evaluation criteria (being ready to risk, taking risks, avoiding risks etc.)
Risk management is considered at strategic and operational levels. How to act with risks, how to live with them,
and the responsibilities of risk management are determined by risk strategy. In risk strategy, some preferences are
made. These preferences are cited below:
Avoiding risks (for example, refusing to cooperate with suppliers who are at a long distance, not using risky
products, markets or customers)
Reducing risks (Operating and using a warehouse with a supplier or customer)
Transferring the risks (partially or entirely) to responsibilities of others (risk insurance, outsourcing)
Assuming the risk and trying to overcome it radically.
Operational risk management is generally considered as a 4 steps process (Pfohl, 2004: 135-136; Schulte, 2005:
693-694)

1. Risk Identification
In this step, the definition, type, cause of the risk, and the level of damages it can generate is specified. Risks
may range from the infrastructure facilities or tools to technical quality or organized personnel or information. At
this step, the security problems and undefended points should be diagnosed.

2. Risk Analysis and Assessment

It is necessary to measure the losses/damages caused by the risks as much objectively as possible and to estimate
the cost of the new preventive/protective measures.
While specifying the risk priorities, strategic risks are of course the ones that must observed and followed
because it is impossible to compensate the losses caused by strategic risks by means of a perfect operation.

3. Reducing / limiting risks

At this point, responsibilities and timing plan are specified (related to organization structure and investments)
and decisions are made. For the purpose of a continuous improvement, the measures should also be followed up.

4. Risk Financing
The risks can either be financed through equities or through insurance. In order to compare the suitable financing
model, it is necessary to know about the origin and frequency of losses/damages. Insuring the risks which cannot be
influenced by management and have a high financial burden seems the best solution today. Insurance companies
also focus on clarity of risks, their level of estimation and a premium system suiting the risk.
Risk management is generally considered as a task of operational management but isnt assigned to only one risk
manager.

3.6 Risk Analysis in Logistics Network Strategies

In the strategies of all logistics companies a special importance should be given to strategy related risks. As for
the risk factors, the trends influencing the logistics network strategies are of special importance. These trends are as
follows (Pfohl, 2004: 135):
1. Effectiveness of the network: should be weighted according to the efficiency of the network;
2. Manufacturing facilities are gradually specializing;
3. Warehouse locations are becoming more central;
4. Number of suppliers is reducing;
5. Outsourcing is gradually increasing;
6. Subject to the increasing globalization, global manufacturing networks are emerging.
The coordination problem in logistics network, increasing need for coordination and increasing relations
between the locations in different regions all increase the requirements and expectations from a logistics system.
This in turn increases the number of potential failure/deviation sources even more. The risks emerging here are
rather related to the links between the organization units within a network. The consistency of the connections may
be threatened by technical or personnel negligence/weaknesses in the interfaces or insufficient organizational
measures (Pfohl, 2004: 135; Rogler, 2001: 211). Negative impacts, particularly the transport risks in the

4th International Logistics and Supply Chain Management Congress

international manufacturing relations and material flows, can impair the security of procurement/supply. Risk level
depends on the type or distance of transportation, complexity of transportation form and the quality of the means of
transport employed. The country risks also cannot be neglected. There might be risks in material, information or
finance flow as well as the flow of rights. It is clear that all these risks would impair the total functioning
performance of the supply chain.

3.7 New Measures Employed in Risk Management in Logistics

In order to avoid, reduce or control the risks in the logistics area, a number of organizational, technical,
economical/commercial and IT related measures, rules and standards are required. To avoid risks as much as
possible, or minimize the losses / damages caused by possible risks, first,
measures should be taken to prevent the risks that might arise due to instability between supply and demand
(flexibility and risk premium contracts with suppliers and/or manufacturers),
simplifying complex flow processes and make them transparent ,
following up and observing the operations with sufficient information and communication support,
application of the security measures before or during operations without reservation, complying the norms or
standards related to movement or moving material/information.
The most recent trend in logistics is the usage of Radio Frequency Identification Devices (RFID), which seems
to replace barcode systems in the future (Knospe & Pohl, 2004: 39; Lin & Brown; 2006: 34). In supply chain
management, RFID enhances instantaneous information about supply of inventory (quantities, locations) and
demand (customer or market), while reducing the risk of theft (Lin & Brown, 2006: 34; Atkinson, 2004: 13-14). The
benefits of RFID systems are the transparency across supply-chain relationships, ability to track lifecycles of
inventory, higher productivity, lower levels of inventory, and improved customer service (Lin & Brown, 2006: 34).
The enhanced ability to track the flow on the logistics activities reduces uncertainties and therefore risks in return.
In order to reduce, share or control the risks within the supply chain, the following risk management strategies
can be emphasized (Pfohl, 2004: 138):
1. Strategy of Avoidance: A business can give up some products, geographical markets, suppliers and/or
customers,
2. Management/Direction: Vertical integration; higher inventory; making use of buffer stock; additional
capacities in manufacturing, storing, handling and/or transportation,
3. Cooperation: By means of joint activities like
Increasing supply chain transparency,
Imposing concept, depth, speed and transparency to information exchange that creates risk
Developing / changing the relations in a consistent manner
4. Flexibility: Postponement; Multiple Sourcing; Local Sourcing
Decision as to which one of those risks management strategies is to be employed depends on differentiation of
logistics strategies.
Companies and chains today prefer two ways to prevent or reduce strategic level risks. One of them is the use of
outsourcing in logistics services; the other is logistics cooperation (meta-logistics). The risks should be prevented,
restricted or estimated primarily through cooperation contracts. Several cooperation models exist for this purpose
(Pfohl, 2004: 138):
The shorter the visibility in market, the narrower the visibility angle, the higher the turbulence expectation, the
more is the tendency to use outsourcing in logistics. On one side, the existence of rationalization (cost saving)
potential in logistics, the target to provide flow optimization, and increasing pressure of competition has improved
outsourcing in the conduct of logistics services. Focusing on core capabilities, reducing the depth of manufacturing
and plant investment requirements, increasing organizational plainness, organizational and economic efficiency,
creating cost savings and flexibility, and outsourcing are considered as opportunities. Outsourcing provides a
suitable base to transform fixed costs to variable costs and minimize logistics risks by means of assigning them to
others, but at the same time, the need for a coordination of mutual trust and relations between supplier and customer
increases.

4. Conclusion
Fast changes in the economy and technology create uncertainties and risks. The risks arising from the
uncertainties in business decisions have increased, and will probably increase in the future, because the gap between
the requirement to be ready to risks and the ability to bear risks is becoming larger. This fact is due to increasing
dynamism and complexity of the markets. The instabilities arising in the supply chain due to various reasons, and
increasing number of interfaces nurture risks in logistics activities. It is therefore necessary to act with a security
margin in all decisions and applications in logistics and take various risk costs into account. The problem in fact is
not taking controllable risks. The problem is the uncontrolled existence of risks in logistics and failure to have
dominance over such risks. The real issue is due to the increasing distance between being ready to a risk and the
ability to overcome that risk. Because of the increasing environmental dynamism and complexity, increasing scale
of the business, increasing innovativeness of new manufacturing techniques/methods, and increasing distance in the
commercial locations, an increase in the number of risks should be expected. While it is possible to take preventive

4th International Logistics and Supply Chain Management Congress

actions against risks by taking precautions and by having an insurance policy, acting towards market risks can only
be possible by specific risk management method. It seems that reducing or sharing are possible by outsourcing in
logistics and by cooperating between horizontally/vertically in the logistics chain.

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4th International Logistics and Supply Chain Management Congress