THE GLOBAL CLIMATE EMERGENCY

1. Global average air temperature rose by 0.85C in the period 1880 - 2012.1
Each of the last three decades has been successively warmer at the Earths surface
than any preceding decade since 1850.2 Warming of the climate system is unequivocal,
and since the 1950s, many of the observed changes are unprecedented over decades to
millennia.
2. According to the World Meteorological Organization, 2016s global temperatures were
approximately 1.1C above pre-industrial levels.3 16 out of 17 hottest years on record
have been from 2000 - 2016.4 2016 was the third and hottest in a row of the
three hottest years on record.5
3. The atmosphere and ocean have warmed. The Arctic icecaps and glaciers are melting
at unprecedented rates, more permafrost is thawing, the sea level has risen, there is
serious ocean acidification, and the concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs)
have increased. There has been a marked increase in the intensity and frequency of
heat waves, droughts, storms, hurricanes and cyclones in the last 50 years.6
4. Research shows that sea levels rose faster in the 20th century than the previous
27 centuries and that global warming is responsible for more than half of global sea
level rise in the 20th century.7
Causes of Global Warming & Climate Change (CC)
5. Human influence on the climate system is clear. Scientists are more certain than ever
that increasing global warminga and climate changeb since 1950 has been caused
primarily by rising emissions of GHGs as a result of human activity (Fig. 1), which
grew by 70% between 1970 and 2004 from pre-industrial times.8 From 2000 to 2010,
total GHG emissions were the highest in human history.9
6. GHGs, within the scope of the Kyoto Protocolc, are carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous
oxide, ozone, water vapour and florinated gases (hydrofluorocarbons HFCs,
perfluorocarbons PFCs, and sulfur hexafluoride SF6)10 (Fig. 1).
7. Between 1990 and 2014, there was a 36% increase in the radiative forcing (the
warming effect on our climate) of GHGs.11
8. The atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous
oxide (N2O) have increased to levels unprecedented in at least the last 800,000
years.12 In 2014, the concentrations were 397.7 ppm for CO2, 1833 ppb for CH4, and
327.1 ppb for N2O, about 143%, 254%, and 121% of pre-industrial (1750) levels,
respectively.13

a "Global warming" refers to the long-term increase in Earth's average temperature.

https://www.nasa.gov/audience/forstudents/5-8/features/nasa-knows/what-is-climate-change-58.html
b The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) refers to climate change as a change of
climate that is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere
and that is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods.
https://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/syr/en/mains1.html
c The Kyoto Protocol emerged from the UNFCCC and is a legally binding agreement under which industrialized
countries and the EU committed to reduce their collective emissions of greenhouse gases by 5.2% compared to the
year 1990. It was adopted in Kyoto, Japan, on 11 December 1997 and entered into force on 16 February 2005. Its
second commitment period ends in 2020.

1 (V2 July 2017)

9. The rate of CO 2 growth over the last decade is 100 to 200 times faster than
since the last Ice Age. 14 About half of the anthropogenic CO2 emissions between 1750
and 2011 occurred in the last 40 years.15
10. Atmospheric CO 2 averaged about 280 ppm between about 10,000 years ago and
the start of the Industrial Revolution around 1760. Globally average d
CO2 levels passed the 400 ppm milestone in 2015, a 43% increase from pre-
industrial levels. CO2 levels rose by 3 ppm to 405.1 ppm in 2016. It was a
record fifth consecutive year that CO2 rose by 2 ppm or more. In February
2017, CO2 levels reached 406.42 ppm.16 With this trend, we risk triggering
tipping points and irreversible impacts.
11. Methane (CH4) has 86 times more warming power (radiative forcing) than CO2 in
the first 20 years and 34 times over 100 years.17 Anthropogenic sources are livestock
farming (mainly cattle); rice cultivation; the burning of coal, natural gas, and biomass;
and the decomposition of organic matter in landfills.18
12. Nitrous oxide (N2O) has 268 times more warming power than CO2 in the first 20
years and 298 times over 100 years.19 The largest source is from the use of synthetic
fertilisers, followed in lesser degrees by the breakdown of livestock manure and urine,
transportation, and industry or chemical production.20
13. The total concentration of all GHGs, including cooling aerosols, reached 441 ppm in
CO2 equivalentsd in 2014.21 This already exceeds the limit which would keep long-
term warming below the temperature threshold of +1.5oC.
14. As at January 2017, we had produced some 2,100 GtCO2 (72%).22 We emitted about
half of this from 1750-1970 and the rest since the 70s.23

Source: IPCC (2014) based on global emissions from 2010. Details about the sources included in these estimates can be found
in the Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/global-greenhouse-gas-emissions-data

d In order to sum their effects on the atmosphere, the so-called greenhouse gas equivalent concentration has been
defined as the concentration of CO2 that would cause the same amount of radiative forcing as the mixture of CO2and
other greenhouse gasess over a 100-year time horizon. http://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-
maps/indicators/atmospheric-greenhouse-gas-concentrations-5/assessment

2 (V2 July 2017)

15. The second figure above shows that the burning of coal, natural gas, and oil for
electricity and heat is the largest single source of global greenhouse gas emissions.
Almost all (95%) of the world's transportation energy comes from petroleum-based
fuels. GHGs from buildings arise from onsite energy generation and burning fuels for
heat in buildings or cooking in homes (excluding electricity). 'Other Energy' refers to
all emissions from the energy sector which are not directly associated with electricity
or heat production, such as fuel extraction, refining, processing, and transportation.
16. CO2 emissions from fossil fuel (natural gas, coal, oil) combustion and industrial
processes (e.g. cement making) contributed to about 78% of the total GHG emissions
increase from 1970-2010.24 Averaged over the last decade, emissions from fossil fuel
and industry account for 91% of human-caused CO2 emissions, with 9% coming from
land use change.25 Fossil fuel emissions (including cement production) accounted for
about 91% of total CO2 emissions from human sources in 2014. This originated from
coal (42%), oil (33%), gas (19%), cement (6%) and gas flaring (1%).26
17. The global food system, from fertilizer manufacture to food storage and packaging,
is responsible for up to one-third of all human-caused GHG emission, according to
the latest figures from the CGIARe (2012).27 However, if we consider other factors in
the system, the contribution goes up to 44-57%: deforestation (15-18%); farming (11-
15% especially industrial inputs and livestock); processing and packaging (8-10%);
refrigeration and freezing (2-4%); transport of agricultural commodities and finished
products (5-6%); and waste (3-4%).28
18. The industrial model of agriculture has also resulted in 25-40% of the excess CO2
in the atmosphere, from the destruction of soil organic matter. The global
accumulated loss of soil organic matter over the last century may be estimated to be
between 150-200 billion tonnes. An estimated 200-300 billion tonnes of CO2 have
been released to the atmosphere due to this.29
19. Roughly one-third of the food produced in the world for human consumption every
year (approximately 1.3 billion tonnes) gets lost or wasted. In developing countries,
40% of losses occur at post-harvest and processing levels while in industrialised
countries, more than 40% of losses happen at retail and consumer levels. Even if just
one-fourth of the food currently lost or wasted globally could be saved, it would be
enough to feed 870 million hungry people. Food loss and waste also amount to a
major squandering of resources, including water, land, energy, labour and capital and
needlessly produce GHGs.30 The CO2 and other GHGs emitted in producing this
wasted food contribute 3.3 Gt of emissions.31 Also when when food is thrown away
and rots in landfills, methane is released.
20. Industrial meat and dairy production ("factory farming") is one of the highest
contributors to forest loss and accounts for 14.5% of global GHG emissions,32,33
more than all the worlds transport combined.34 Factory farms are the problem, not
small farmers and herders. Unsustainable meat consumption is driven primarily by
rich countries. If current consumption trends continue, world meat consumption will
grow by 76% by 2050, while emissions from dairy will increase by 65%.35 If the
Western diet becomes the norm by 2050, additional emissions resulting from the
growth in global consumption of beef, lamb and other meats would be significant
enough to derail successful mitigation efforts in other sectors and take us to 4oC, even
if the energy sector is decarbonised by then.36

e Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research

3 (V2 July 2017)
21. Another major source of CO2 emissions is deforestation (contributing about 12%37
to 15%38 When trees are cut down and burned or allowed to rot, their stored carbon is
released into the air as CO2. Tropical deforestation occurring today can be traced to
just four globally traded commodities: beef, soybeans, palm oil, and wood
products.39 In South America, 71% of deforestation has been driven by demand for
livestock products.40
22. Globally, the destruction of a third of coastal and marine wetlands to make way for
houses, ports and other commercial activity is shrinking the size of the blue carbon
sink. Exposed soils release CO2, turning coastal ecosystems from net absorbers of
GHGs to net sources. Carbon emissions from degraded mangroves, tidal marshes and
seagrasses are thought to be equivalent to 319% of those produced annually from
deforestation, though some large uncertainties still remain.41
23. Thawing permafrost is also emitting Ch4, CO2 and N2O. Continued emissions of GHGs
will cause further warming and long-lasting changes in all components of the climate
system, increasing the likelihood of severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts
for people and ecosystems.
24. The US was the largest emitter of GHGs since the Industrial Revolution. China
surpassed it a decade ago, and its emissions today are about double (30% of global
GHG emissions) that of the US (15%). Some of Chinas emissions, however, come
from the production of goods for the US and other rich countries. The US, with just
above 4% of the world's population, is still the largest emitter per capita at
16.2 tonnes of CO2 per capita, followed by Canada, Russia, Japan, Germany, and
China (at 7.5 tonnes per capita).42 Therefore, the typical American burns roughly
twice as much as the average person in Europe or Japan, and about 10 times as much
as the average person in India. The CO2 emissions per capita of Malaysia increased
from 4.63 tonnes in 1996 to 8.09 metric tons in 2015.43

4 (V2 July 2017)

 WE ARE AT TIPPING POINT
1. We are absolutely 'committed'f to or locked in to a warming of 1.5C (due to
climate system inertias), which can happen between 2026-2031.44 The average global
temperature change for 2016 was +1.1C45 which was also the hottest year on record46.
February 2016 hit 1.55C.47 These are dangerous limits. Moving beyond 1.5-2oC will
be increasingly devastating for all living beings/entities on Earth. Some scientists cite
the tipping point for permafrost thaw to be as low as 1.50C48 with a "runaway"
global warming effect which, once triggered, will likely be impossible to stop.
2. If global emissions continue with no additional mitigation ("business-as-usual"),
global temperature can rise by between 3.7-4.8C above late 19th century levels by
2100 (with a full range of 2.5-7.8C [5-95% confidence range] when including climate
uncertainty).49 These projections do not include methane releases that will occur as
temperatures rise and which will exacerbate global warming.
3. Even if all the government pledges and climate action commitments made under the
Paris Agreement (2015)g are fulfilled, we are estimated to reach 2.8C, with a likely
chance of holding warming below 3.1C by 2100. However, current climate
policies are not in line with climate pledges and will lead the world well into a
warming of 3.6C by 2100.50

IMPACTS OF GLOBAL WARMING & CLIMATE CHANGE

1. Climate Change Is Happening To All of Us NOW. The impacts of human-
caused climate change are playing outin real timebefore us. Global warming will
last thousands of years. Global warming, climate changes, and sea level rise are largely
irreversible for 1,000 years even after CO2 emissions cease.51 If we do not stop now,
however, the situation will get far worse. We need to stop well before 20C!
2. One prediction is that sea levels could rise by up to 2 metres by 2100 in a business-as-
usual scenario; Antarctica alone could contribute up to 1.2 m (4 feet) of this. 52
Other predictions cite sea level rises of 1.6 - 11 m, for global temperature rises of
1.5 - 4oC, respectively.53,54 The last time CO2 levels were as high as current levels, sea
levels rose by 6 m (20 ft).55
3. An estimated 20-30% of plant and animal species will be at risk of extinction at
temperatures of 1.5- 2.5C.56 At 6oC, we could lose more than 90% of all marine
species and 70% of all land animals.57
4. Burning all fossil fuels would warm land areas by about 20C (36F) on average
and warm the poles a stunning 30C (54F). This "would make most of the
planet uninhabitable by humans" (Dr. James Hansen, 201358). Sea levels could
rise by up to 60 metres.59

f Climate change 'commitment' is the term used by scientists to convey the fact that we are locked into a much higher
degree of global climate change than we are already experiencing today. http://www.climate-change-emergency-
medical-response.org/climate-change-commitment.html
g Agreement by the Conference of the Parties (COP) 21 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate
Change (UNFCCC) in December 2015 in Paris. http://unfccc.int/2860.php.

5 (V2 July 2017)

 Degree by Degree Warming Countdownh
0.85 to 1+ Degree of Warming (2012 - present)
The Arctic has been warming 3-4 times the global average over the past 30 years and
2 times over the past 100 years. Greenland and Antarctica have shed, on average, 303
and 118 gigatons (Gt) of ice every year, respectively, since 2004.60
Greenland's ice loss rate increased 250% between 2002-04 and 2004-06.61 Greenland
is losing about 375 cu km of ice/year while Antarctica is losing about 128 cu
km/year.62 Together, these two ice sheets are dumping roughly 500 km3 of ice in the
oceans annually.
As of July 2016, the extent of Arctic sea ice at the peak of the summer melt season
covered 40% less area than it did in the late 1970s and early 1980s. Arctic sea ice
extent in September, the seasonal low point in the annual cycle, has been declining
at a rate of 13.4% per decade.63
The Himalayan glaciers play a crucial role in river flows, hydropower generation and
agricultural run in the Ganges, Yangtze, Mekong and Indus river systems in Asia and
elsewhere. Glaciers in the Himalayas and Tibet are disappearing at a rate of 7% a year.
More than 15,000 glaciers in the Himalayas have shrunk, many at rates of 70-100 m
a year. Some 2,000 Himalayan glaciers have disappeared since 1900. 15-mile-long
glaciers have lost a third of their length in the last 50 years.64 Melting glaciers can
collapse at unpredictable times.65
82% of the Tibetan plateau's glacier ice has melted in the last 50 years.66 The Qinghai-
Tibet plateau has been warming faster than the global average with temperatures
rising 0.16oC per year. About 3,000 of the 4,077 lakes in Qinghai Province's Madoi
County have disappeared.67
From 2000 - 2009, there were 385 climate disasters, an increase of 233% since
1980-1989, and 67% since 1990 - 1999.68
In 2012, climate change was estimated to contribute to the deaths of nearly 400,000
people a year and cost the world more than US$1.2 trillion, wiping 1.6% annually
from global GDP. Air pollution caused by the use of fossil fuels is also separately
contributing to the deaths of at least 4.5 mil people a year.69
The 2015 Lancet Commission on Health and Climate Change concluded CC could be
the biggest global health threat of the century, primarily through indirect effects
from water and food insecurity and extreme weather.70
CC impacts are and will continue to be distributed unevenly, with damages falling
disproportionately on the poor and vulnerable in both developed and developing
regions.
There will be more frequent hot and fewer cold temperature extremes over most land
areas on daily and seasonal timescales, as global mean surface temperature increases.
It is very likely that heat waves will occur with a higher frequency and longer duration;
these could exceed the survival limits of even fully-fit people.71
Extreme weather has major impacts on the elderly and vulnerable even in the
developed world. In 2003, Europe experienced the hottest summer on record in
Europe since at least 1540. The toll from heat-related deaths was estimated at more
than 70,000.72 It also caused US$12 bil. of crop losses, reduced glacier mass by 10%,
and resulted in a 30% drop in plant growth.73

h All info is this sub-section (0.85 - 6oC) is from http://www.climatecodered.org/2010/09/what-would-3-degrees-

mean.html unless otherwise referenced.
6 (V2 July 2017)
 In urban areas, climate change is projected to increase risks for people, economies
and ecosystems, including risks from heat stress, storms and extreme precipitation,
inland and coastal flooding, water scarcity, sea-level rise, and storm surges.
Rural areas are expected to experience major impacts on water availability and
supply, food security, infrastructure, and agricultural incomes. There will be an
increase in extreme climate events like super-hurricanes.
Food insecurity is the single greatest threat of CC especially to vulnerable human
populations.74 With climate change, the population living in poverty could increase by
35 - 122 million by 2030 relative to a future without climate change, largely due to
its negative impacts on incomes in the agricultural sector.75 The increase in the
number of poor would be biggest in sub-Saharan Africa, partly because its population
is more reliant on agriculture.
Smallholders, subsistence farmers and fishers are already suffering losses from CC.
At an above 10C temperature rise, all crops in all regions will be affected negatively.76
5 -15% yield reductions for a number of crops are expected per degree rise in
temperature.77 For rice, wheat and maize; 10% yield decline are expected for every
degree Celsius increase over 300C.78
In Senegal, Africa, temperatures have climbed to as high as 50oC (122oF) and with
prolonged droughts, the desert has advanced rapidly. Farming has failed and
thousands of young men have left their villages to find work in surrounding countries,
often being brutalised or killed in the process.79 Climate change has been positively
linked with the incidence of food riots and terrorist activity in Africa. 60 million
climate migrants are expected to leave sub-Saharan Africa and move up north by the
end of the century.80
In 2015, there were 19.2 million were displaced by natural hazards in 113 countries.81
The majority of this displacement was caused by extreme weather events due to a
record number of droughts, widespread flooding and 90 major tropical storms.
Globally, 200 million to 1 billion people displaced by CC are expected by 2100.82
The Amazon will likely be affected by regular drought (like the one in 2005). The
Great Plains of North America will be subject to mega-droughts and desertification.
Queensland's highland rainforest could be reduced by half.
Droughts in Africa have forced the Maasai, semi-nomadic livestock keepers for
centuries, to change their way of life and adopt farming.83 This has led to significant
increases in human-animal conflicts and poaching. Prolonged droughts in Africa have
caused the death of thousands of elephants and other large wildlife, directly and
indirectly.
For 300 million years, ocean pH has averaged about 8.2. Today, it is around 8.1
because it has absorbed about 25-30% (22 mil tons/day) of the CO2 emitted.84 In the
past 200 years alone, ocean water has become 30% more acidic, faster than any known
change in ocean chemistry in the last 50 million years.85 If no action is taken, the
ocean could become nearly 150% more acidic by 2100.86
Ocean acidification is having a dramatic effect on calcifying species like oysters, clams,
sea urchins, corals, and corals. When shelled organisms are at risk, the entire food web
is at risk. Today, more than a billion people worldwide rely on food from the ocean as
their primary source of protein.

7 (V2 July 2017)

 Ocean acidification has caused the death of an estimated 20% of corals.87 We are in
the third global coral bleaching event.i 93% of the Great Barrier Reef has been
impacted by bleaching already.88 Corals reefs support some 500 million people who
depend on the ocean for food and livelihood.89 All will be severely impacted by
worsening ocean acidification and warming.
Ocean acidification and the loss of food from the sea is impacting millions of fisherfolk
communities around the world. Around 65 million people in the Philippines living
along the coasts are already suffering from the impacts of less catch, smaller fish, and
fewer types of catch.90
Greenland is expected to tip into irreversible melt once global temperatures rise past
a mere 1.2oC. Ice sheets around the world will suffer severe losses.
Global sea level rise (SLR) is due to thermal expansion caused by warming of the
ocean and increased melting of land-based ice like glaciers and ice sheets. Some
regions are experiencing greater SLR than others. Studies estimate global SLR during
the 20th century to be around 20 cm.91 The pace of global SLR almost doubled from
1.7 mm/year throughout most of the 20th century to 3.2 mm/year since 1993.92
By 1.5oC, sea level rise could be 1.6 - 4.2 m93, displacing coastal communities.
Within the next few decades, sea level rise will likely salinate underground water
reserves for e.g. the aquifers used by cities such as Shanghai, Manila, Jakarta,
Bangkok, Kolkata, Mumbai, Karachi, Buenos Aires and Lima. Saltwater will invade
the porous rocks that hold freshwater. The problem will be compounded by sinking
water tables due to low rainfall and rising water usage by growing urbanised
populations.
The loss of freshwater from a third of the world's land surface would be set in
motion.94
Mountains will destabilize and landslides will increase as permafrost melts.
World cyclones will become more severe.

i http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2015/100815-noaa-declares-third-ever-global-coral-bleaching-event.html.
Coral bleaching occurs when corals are exposed to stressful environmental conditions such as high temperature. Corals expel the
symbiotic algae living in their tissues, causing corals to turn white or pale. Without the algae, the coral loses its major source of food
and is more susceptible to disease. The first global bleaching event was in 1998 during a strong El Nio and La Nia. The second
occurred in 2010.

8 (V2 July 2017)

 20C+ of Warming
"Humans never have lived on a planet that's 20C warmer
than it was before we started burning fossil fuels in the late 1800s"95
An estimated 20-30% of plant and animal species will be at risk of extinction at
temperatures more than 1.5- 2.5C.96
Above 20C, a drastic decline in food production is expected affecting millions to
billions of people.97 In central and south America, maize losses are projected for all
nations but two.98 In 29 African countries, including Mali, Botswana and Congo,
crop failure and hunger will increase.99
By 2030, if the Chinese are consuming at the same rate as Americans, they could
eat two-thirds of the entire global harvest.100
The irreversible melting of the Greenland ice sheet will be well underway.
Greenland's critical melt threshold is a regional temperature rise of 2.70C, but its
temperatures are at least 2.2 times the global average. So, this point will have been
triggered at just over one degree global temperature rise. The tundra would be
almost gone, replaced by forests.
Sea levels could rise by 3 - over 6 metres.101
More coastal cities/areas and low-lying islands will be inundated and coastal
populations displaced. An estimated 2 million people each year will be exposed to
coastal flooding. About 130 million people each year will be exposed to river
flooding.102 With a 5m sea level rise, Miami would disappear, as would most of
Manhattan. Central London would be flooded, and Bangkok, Bombay and Shanghai
would lose most of their area. Flooding in countries like Bangladesh would worsen.
With increasing ocean acidification, corals will become largely extinct.103
Cyclones will worsen (super-cyclones).
Rivers and even mountains could dry up. Forests could die off and burn.
The availability of freshwater is expected to decline by 20%. An estimated 1.5 billion
people each year will live in areas without enough usable water.104
Europe will increasingly be hit by heatwaves like the one in 2003 killing thousands.
The Mediterranean will be subject to drought and wildfires as rainfall drops 20%.
2012 figures for death by CC were 400,000 per year.105 Between 2030 and 2050,
climate change is expected to cause approximately 250,000 additional deaths per
year, from malnutrition, malaria, diarrhoea and heat stress.106 The direct damage costs
to health (i.e. excluding costs in health-determining sectors such as agriculture and
water and sanitation) is estimated to be between US$ 2-4 billion a year by 2030.107
The heat will cause mass migrations. Areas around the Bay of Bengal (covering India,
Bangladesh, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Myanmar, Thailand, & Malaysia) may become
uninhabitable.108
By 2030, the cost of climate change and air pollution combined will rise to 3.2% of
global GDP, with the world's least developed countries forecasted to bear the brunt,
suffering losses of up to 11% of their GDP.109

"Beyond two degrees of warming, we are leaving the world

as we know it."110

CHANCE OF AVOIDING 20C: POSSIBLE ONLY IF EMISSIONS OF

GREENHOUSE GASES ARE DRASTICALLY REDUCED BY 2020
& REDUCTION CONTINUES TO ZERO BY MID-CENTURY111

9 (V2 July 2017)

 30C+ of Warming
Three degrees of warming may be the tipping point where global warming runs
out of control. In the Pliocene period, 3 million years, when temperatures were 30C
higher than our pre-industrial levels, the northern hemisphere was free of glaciers and
ice sheets; sea levels were 20-25 m higher; and atmospheric CO2 levels were
360-400 ppm, very similar to today. Permanent El Nino conditions likely prevailed.
Sea levels could rise by roughly 5 - 8 m.112
The reversal of the carbon cycle is projected to happen around 30C. This is when
heat-stressed soil, plants and trees will release the carbon they store and have a
'positive feedback' (worsening) effect on global warming.113 Vast amounts of dead
vegetation stored in the soil will be broken down by bacteria as soil warms. It is
estimated that the soil carbon reservoir contains some 1,600 Gt, more than double the
entire carbon content of the atmosphere.
The Amazon rainforest, where 10% of the world's photosynthesis takes place, may turn
to savannah as droughts and mega-fires first destroy the rainforest, turning trees back
into carbon dioxide as they burn or rot and decompose. The carbon released by this
forest destruction and the worlds soils could boost global temperatures by a further
1.5C.
Increasing areas of the planet will rendered essentially uninhabitable due to drought
and heat. Rainfall in Mexico and central America is projected to fall 50%. Southern
Africa would be exposed to perennial drought. Drought intensity in Australia could
triple. Days above 350C in New South Wales could increase 2 - 7 times.
Global food demand in 2050 is projected to increase by at least 60% above 2006
levels.114
World food supplies will be critically endangered resulting in mass starvation. This
could mean hundreds of millions or billions of forced migrants moving out from areas
of famine and drought in the sub-tropics towards the mid-latitudes.
Chinas agricultural production is predicted to crash.
If current trends hold, Chinese scientists believe that 40% of the Tibetian Plateau's
glaciers could disappear by 2050.115
By 2050, the upstream flow of the Brahmaputra and Indus could shrink by 19.6% and
8.4%, respectively, regardless of rainfall increases. The Ganges, Indus and Yangtze
could see declines of 17.6, 8.4 and 5.2%, respectively. This means that by 2050, 60
million people will not have enough water from the Brahmaputra, Ganges, Yangtze
and Indus, which support the worlds largest irrigation system.116 Food shortages will
result.
Hurricanes may increase in power by half a category above todays top-level Category
Five (super hurricanes).
Greenland will likely vanish along with West Antarctica and a portion of East
Antarctica.117 Melting permafrost in the Arctic will trigger the release of methane.
By 2050, rising sea levels are expected to inundate some 17% of the land and displace
about 18 million people in Bangladesh.118
With business-as-usual, all coral reefs should be dead by 2050.119
If GHG emissions continue at current rates, climate change will cause more than a
third of the Earths animal and plant species to face extinction by 2050.120

CHANCE OF AVOIDING 30C: POOR IF THE RISE PASSES TWO DEGREES AND
TRIGGERS CARBON-CYCLE FEEDBACKS FROM SOILS AND PLANTS

10 (V2 July 2017)

 40C+ of Warming

40C of warming in a business-as-usual scenario could raise sea levels by

7 -11 m121,122. This could submerge land currently home to 470 to 760 million
people globally.123
Up to 30 million people each year could be exposed to coastal floods and
over 400 million to river floods.124
Major coastal cities like Mumbai and Shanghai will be inundated; Bangladesh
could lose 30% of its land.125
Up to 3.5 billion people each year may not have enough usable water. 126
Starvation will be widespread. More people will resort to hunting.
Migrants will have to force their way into the few remaining habitable enclaves
and fight for survival. Where no refuge is available, civil war and conflicts over
food, shelter, etc. are likely outcomes.127
The West Antarctic ice sheet may lift loose from its bedrock and collapse as
warming ocean waters erode its base, much of which is anchored below current
sea levels.
Much of the Indian sub-continent will be arid.128
New deserts will likey spread in Italy, Spain, Greece and Turkey. In Switzerland,
summer temperatures may hit 480C. The Alps would be largely snowless and
dry. Europes population may be forced into a great trek north.
Up to 70% of the Earths animal and plant species could become extinct.129
Melting Arctic permafrost will be releasing huge amounts of CH4 and CO2,
exacerbating global warming.

A 4-50C rise would be catastrophic for the world.130

CHANCE OF AVOIDING 40C OF GLOBAL WARMING: POOR

IF THE RISE REACHES 3 DEGREES AND TRIGGERS A
RUNAWAY THAW OF PERMAFROST

11 (V2 July 2017)

 50 - 60C of Warming

CHANCE OF AVOIDING 50 OF GLOBAL WARMING: NEGLIGIBLE IF THE

RISE PASSES 40 & RELEASES TRAPPED METHANE FROM THE SEA BED

Five degrees of warming occurred during the Eocene age, 55 million years ago:
The Arctic Ocean saw water temperatures of 200C within 200 km of the North
Pole itself. There was no ice at either pole.
A 50 world will likely be characterized by major extinctions around the globe
and a reconfiguration of coastlines worldwide and a total collapse of
civilization.131
There will likely be no rainforests left and an expansion of existing deserts.
New deserts in Indo-china, Korea, Japan and the west Pacific and Pacific Isles,
Southern Europe, East Africa and Madagascar and Chile could manifest.132

The last time the Earth was 6oC hotter, it was 251 million years ago at the end
of the Permian period, when more than 90% of all marine species and
70% of all land animals were wiped out in the worst mass extinction the
Earth has known.133
Warm water has less dissolved oxygen so ocean conditions became stagnant
and anoxic. All higher forms of life, from plankton to sharks, faced suffocation.
The warm water also expanded and sea levels soared.
At 5 - 60C, methane-air clouds from oceanic eruptions could destroy
terrestrial life almost entirely.134
Hydrogen sulphide from the stagnant oceans would be a silent killer.
At the same time, as the ozone layer depletes, we would feel the suns rays
burning into our skin, triggering cell mutations leading to cancer among those
who survive.
Billions will possibly die.

With all the remaining forests burning, and the corpses of people,
livestock and wildlife piling up in every continent, the six-degree
world would be a harsh penalty indeed for the mundane crime of
burning fossil energy.135

6 degrees would be akin to killing the planet,

or society on the planet.136

12 (V2 July 2017)

 WHAT MUST BE DONE?
The clear message is that business-as-usual is not an option.
Things have to change now.
"We are not faced with two separate crises, one environmental and the other social,
but rather with one complex crisis that is both social and environmental. Strategies
for a solution demand an integrated approach to combating poverty, restoring
dignity to the excluded, and at the same time protecting nature."(Pope Francis)j
We need venues where stakeholders, community and religious leaders can converge
around concrete problems with researchers and scholars from all academic disciplines,
with the overall goal of initiating dialogue and collaborative actions to address the
global climate emergency. The global climate emergency requires integrated
behavioral, ethical, political, social, humanistic and scientific solutions.137
The December 2015 UNFCCC Paris Agreementk emphasizes "with serious concern, the
urgent need to address the significant gap between the aggregate effect of Parties
mitigation pledges in terms of global annual emissions of greenhouse gases by 2020
and aggregate emission pathways consistent with holding the increase in the global
average temperature to well below 2C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing
efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5C".138
1.5C and 2C are politically negotiated targets. What is more important are tipping
points in the climate system, especially the dynamics that lock in irreversible
change.139
Some experts state that 2oC, although theoretically possible, is realistically difficult
given the inadequate political will globally, especially with the US's withdrawal from
the Paris Agreement in June 2017,140 and the lack of negative emissions technologies,
namely, bioenergy with carbon capture and sequestration (BECCs) on a large scale.141
Staying below 2C will require social, financial, and technical actions by 2020 on a
global scale.142 Limiting global warming and climate change will require substantial
and sustained reductions of GHG emissions.
The IPCC AR5l estimated 400 GtCO2 from 2011 as the carbon budget for a 66%
chance of staying below 1.5C, giving us about 4 years' worth of emissions before
reaching the target.143 However, prominent researchers warn that this is an
overestimation and that we have no more carbon budget left for 1.5C from 2017
onwards.144 In 2015, humankind emitted about 36.3 GtCO2 (9.9 GtC).145 Global
energy-related CO2 emissions (i.e. from fossil fuels and industry) were flat (at
32.1 GtCO2) for a third straight year in 2016 while the global economy grew 3.1%.146
To provide a 66% chance of keeping global warming below 2C will require limiting
total CO2 emissions since 1861-1880 to about 2,900 Gt.147 We will need to reduce
GHG emissions drastically by 2020148 and sustain reduction to zero by
mid-century.149 As at January 2017, we had produced some 2,100 GtCO2 (72%).150
The bottom line is we need Immediate Action by all, especially the developed
nations.

j Pope Francis, Laudato Si' mi Signore: Encyclical letter on Care for Our Common Home, June 2015 . Quoted from
para 139.
k Conference of the Parties (COP) 21 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
http://unfccc.int/2860.php.
l Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Assessment Report 5. 2014. https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-
report/ar5/syr/AR5_SYR_FINAL_SPM.pdf
13 (V2 July 2017)
Fossil Fuel Descent
As of 2013, fossil fuels provided 87% of the world's energy.151 A September 2016
report by Oil Change International152 cited that current developed reservesm of oil
already meet the targets for 1.5C and 2C of warming.
The post-Paris carbon budget represents 16% (473 GtCO2) of global fossil fuel
reserves; meaning that 84% (2,427 GtCO2) must be kept in the ground.153
Specific estimates are >80% of the worlds known coal reserves154;
52% of gas155; and 75% of oil156.
The world has to move into a managed and fairly rapid fossil-fuel descent.
Industrialised countries must reduce GHG emissions by at least 77% by 2050 relative
to 2010 levels.157 Rich countries must phase out coal-fired electricity by 2030,
China by 2040 and the rest of the world by 2050.158
We must immediately cease fossil fuel exploration and new fossil fuel extraction
and transportation infrastructure; governments should grant no new permits for
these.159
We need to cut short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs)n by 2030 to the maximum
extent possible.
We must achieve clean energy and net zero emissions by 2050, and remove a
growing share of the CO2 already emitted.160

Renewable Energy and Clean Technologies

We need to replace current fossil fuel energy systems with carbon neutral and
carbon sequestration technologies rapidly.
Financial support should be provided for non-carbon development in poorer
countries.161 We need to double or triple the global budget for clean energy
research, development, and deployment.162
We must also increase our low-carbon energy supply (e.g. solar, wind, hydroelectric,
etc.) by at least five-fold over the next four decades.163 We need to achieve a more
reliable and resilient electric grid with at least 90% of all new generation capacity
by 2030 from distributed and renewable technologies, such as photovoltaics, wind
turbines, biogas, and geothermal.164
To achieve carbon-free electrification, complementary energy storage must be
developed and deployed. Support research and development of a portfolio of new
energy storage technologies as well as advances in heat pumps, efficient lighting,
smart buildings and systems integration. Promote immediate widespread use of
mature renewal technologies and more efficient end-use devices, especially in lighting,
appliances and industrial processes.165

m What is known and recoverable through currently operating fields and mines
n Short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs) comprise black carbon, methane, tropospheric ozone, and some
hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs). These are global greenhouse gases as well as dangerous air pollutants, with various
detrimental impacts on human health, agriculture and ecosystems. http://ccacoalition.org/en/science-resources.
14 (V2 July 2017)
Market- and Regulations-Based Solutions
Adopt the 'Polluter Pays Principle'. Introduce market-based instruments to create
efficient incentives for businesses and individuals to reduce CO2 emissions. These
could include cap and trade, or carbon pricing and the revenues from these schemes
can be used to fund mitigation and adaptation initiatives. Adopt the high quality
emissions inventories, monitoring and enforcement mechanisms necessary to make
these approaches work.166
Create powerful incentives that continually reward improvements to bring down
emissions. Terminate subsidies that encourage emission-intensive activities.
Expand subsidies that encourage innovation in low-emission technologies.167
Sustainable Cities
Cities are major contributors to climate change: although they cover less than 2% of
the earths surface, cities consume 78% of the worlds energy and produce more than
60% of all CO2 and significant amounts of other GHG emissions, mainly through
energy generation, vehicles, industry, and biomass use.168

Make cities sustainable and reduce their carbon footprint through (1) municipal and
regional climate action plans; (2) green infrastructure projects, such as urban forestry
to improve carbon sequestration and reduce the urban heat island effect, and locally
decentralized micro-grids using renewable energy sources; (3) smart mobility
planning and design which makes cities less auto-centric and more walkable and
bikeable; (4) incentivising photovoltaic retrofits and new net-zero energy technology;
and (5) corresponding civic engagement and public education strategies, accompanied
by concrete local opportunities for participatory climate action, to change attitudes
and behaviours.169

Lifestyle changes are especially important for urban dwellers. We need to learn to live
simply and avoid excesses. Reduce and if possible, stop eating meat especially beef.
Stop wastage of food, water, and 'stuff'. Buy less stuff. Reduce, reuse, and recycle.

Negative Emissions Technologies

GHG emission reductions alone are not enough, however. Negative emissions
solutions refer to ways to remove CO2 from the atmosphere and store it on land ,
underground or in the oceans. These include: afforestation and reforestation, soil
carbon sequestration, blue carbon habitat restoration, BECCs, biochar, and direct air
capture, among others. Many of these are not yet proven.
BECCs involve farming bioenenery crops which extract CO2 from the atmosphere as
they grow, then burning them for energy, capturing the resulting carbon emissions
and storing them underground. BECCs are included in most of the IPCC's 5th
Assessment Report scenarios as a mitigation tool, but their credibility is still unproven.
The prospect of a large-scale global deployment of BECCs are fraught with
unanswered questions regarding their economics, logistics, effectiveness,
environmental risks, implications for land and water use, competition with food, and
impacts on communities, among others. Their widespread deployment in climate
stabilisation scenarios may become a dangerous distraction and an excuse to keep
producing GHGs. They should not replace mitigation and adaptation commitments.
170,171,172

15 (V2 July 2017)

 Blue carbon habitat restoration involves the conservation and restoration of salt
marshes, mangroves, and seagrass beds which capture CO2 from the atmosphere
and store it in their leaves, stems and in the soil. Carbon stored in coastal or marine
ecosystems is known as blue carbon. Such ecosystems also provide nursery grounds
for wildlife and offering protection against coastal storms.173
Building with biomass: Plant-based materials can be used in construction, storing
carbon and preserving it for as long as the building remains standing. For example,
timber and bamboo can be used for structural elements, hemp and wool for insulation,
and hemp-lime for walling. These materials provide an alternative to standard
construction materials, including steel and concrete, which are typically carbon-
intensive to produce. Natural materials have additional benefits, such as the ability to
regulate moisture and absorb pollution.174
Afforestation means planting trees where there were previously none. Reforestation
means restoring areas where the trees have been cut down or degraded. It is estimated
that afforestation and reforestation can sequester CO2 at a rate of 3.7 tonnes per
hectare per year, at a cost of USD20-100 per tonne. One potential obstacle to
afforestation is land availability and suitability. Planting vast areas of forests could
also cause complex changes in cloud cover, reflectivity, and the soil-water balance. All
of these could also have an impact on the Earths climate.175
A proven way for effective soil carbon sequestration (i.e. safe storage of carbon in the
soil) is through agroecological practices as explained below.
The potential for carbon mitigation from afforestation, reduced deforestation and
restoration of soil organic carbon is about 8 to 12 Gt per year.176

Reforming the Food and Agriculture System

The industrial food and agricultural system contributes some 30% to GHGs.177 It is
a destructive and failed system which brought harm to people, especially small-scale
farmers, and the environment. It needs to be replaced by a new system built on
food sovereignty and agroecology if we are to avoid catastrophic global warming
and address global inequity and injustice. Accordingly, we need to reject 'climate-
smart agriculture' which is a rebranding of the destructive industrialised agricultural
system and driven by agribusiness interests.
The massive use of chemical fertilizers and other unsustainable practices of industrial
agriculture has caused an average loss of at least 3060 tonnes of soil organic matter
for every hectare of agricultural land since the Green Revolution in the 60s, releasing
billions of tonnes of CO2 into the atmosphere. 178 By using agroecological techniques
(which includes stopping the use of chemical inputs), it is estimated that we can
increase progressively soil organic matter by 60 tonnes/hectare over 50 years and
in the process, capture more than two-thirds of the current excess CO2 in the
atmosphere.179
Another study estimates that if we converted all global cropland to "regenerative
organic management" (agroecology), we could sequester 40% of annual CO2 emissions.
If we also converted all global pasture and rangelands to organic regenerative
management, we could sequester 71% more annual CO2 emissions. This adds up to
a possible sequestration of 111% of annual CO2 emissions by managing our
croplands, rangelands, and pastures differently.180

16 (V2 July 2017)

 Stop food wastage. One-third of the food produced globally is lost or wasted.
It accounts for some 3.3 Gt of GHGs per year.181
Reorient food production and diets away from foods grown and processed with
synthetic chemical inputs towards local markets, and nutritious local,
traditional and fresh foods grown ecologically.
Decreasing meat and dairy consumption, especially in North America and
Europe, and curbing the growth of meat-intensive diets in developing countries, is
crucial. If people just kept their meat consumption to the World Health Organisations
recommended guidelines, the world could reduce some 40% of all current GHGs.182
We need to disincentivise the production and consumption of cheap industrial meat
and dairy. We also need to stop trade deals that facilitate the massive international
trade in meat and dairy products and support small scale, local and
agroecological meat and dairy production and marketing instead.
In this way, livestock will once again become integrated into diversified farming
systems, while meat and dairy regain their proper place in peoples diets.183
The peasant food web supplies 70% of the world's food with only 30% of its
agricultural resources, using only 20% of the fossil fuel and 30% of the water in
agriculture on only 25% of global farmland.184 Small farmers produce food far more
efficiently and ecologically than big plantations. Genuine agarian reform involving
a worldwide redistribution of lands with ownership to small farmers, combined with
policies to help them rebuild soil fertility and to support local markers, can reduce
GHG emissions by half within a few decades.185

Stopping Deforestation
Forests play a critical role in mitigating climate change because they act as a carbon
sink, soaking up CO2 that would otherwise be free in the atmosphere as a GHG.
Reducing and stopping deforestation is not only a beneficial action against global
warming; it also saves biodiversity and supports sustainable development. Rainforests
cool the air above them by turning water from the soil into moisture in the air. When
these trees are chopped down, the cooling effect from this additional moisture is lost.
The effect is so pronounced that if all the trees in the tropics were cut down global
temperature could increase by as much as 0.7oC.186 Tropical forests are home to many
unique species of animals and plants as well as sources of food, medicine, and clean
drinking water for people in developing countries. They also help regulate regional
rainfall and prevent floods and droughts.187

Stop False Solutions

We need to stop the implementation and pursuit of false solutions such as carbon
trading; market-based approaches to forests, soil and water; clean coal; nuclear
energy; mega hydro dams; agrofuels; climate-smart agriculture; and large-scale
geo-engineering and techno-fixes. These will only propogate unsustainable 'business-
as-usual' approaches in different forms; intensify corporate control, global inequities
and environmental risks; and divert attention away from the finding true, responsible
and sustainable solutions.188

17 (V2 July 2017)

Ecological Justice and Resilience
We need to understand that the present climate and ecological crisis in rooted in
global inequity, driven by greed and selfishness, enabled by the global neo-liberalist
capitalist economic model, characterised by gross violations to the rights of people,
especially the poor, and the rights of Mother Earth. There can be no true saving or
rebuilding of the world without confronting these inequities head on and rejecting
such models of 'development'.
Climate injustice is based on the fact that many countries of the Global South,
especially the poor communities, are suffering the worst effects of anthropogenic
climate change even though they have contributed very little to it. Conversely, the
industrialised/ developed countries of the Global North, who have contributed
excessively GHG emissions through more than 150 years of industrial activity, are far
less affected by the adverse impacts of climate change and are not doing enough to
address the global climate crisis.
Advocacy for Climate Justice is in response to this situation. It draws upon the
UNFCCC'so acknowledgement of the historial accountability of the developed
countries in having contributed much more to GHG emissions as a result of more than
150 years of industrial activity; and the principle of "common but differentiated
responsibilities" in that the developed nations must do more to mitigate their GHG
emissions and provide capital, technology transfer and capacity building to developing
and least developed countries to help them adapt to climate change, to mitigate their
own GHG emissions and to transition towards low carbon technologies and
development.p Although the Paris Agreement has made country commitments
obligatory and not legally binding (unlike in the Kyoto Protocol), Climate Justice
demands that developed countries take full historical accountability for the climate
crisis.
Ecological Justice encompasses environmental, social, climate, intra and inter
generational justice, and other forms of justice. It acknowledges human rights; the
rights of Mother Earthq; and the rights of current and future generations to inherit a
clean, healthy, safe, stable world so as to be able to satisfy their needs, and to enjoy
dignity, happiness, well being, freedom, and peace in life.
A radical transformation of society is imperative to ensure that we move away
from being life-destroying and become life-respecting, life-giving and life-nurturing.
A new and more responsible, compassionate, just, and sustainable way of being, living,
growing and interacting with one another and with nature is called for, one which is
built on a spirituality of communion with nature, and the ethics of care for people,
care for the Earth and fair share. We need to uphold the right of all living entities to
live with dignity and equity. We need to establish new models of dialogue,
interaction, development and governance.
In sum, we need to ensure Ecological Justice and Resilience, especially for the
marginalised, both human and natural. We need to uphold ecological justice which is
premised on the the right of all living beings (including natural entities) to live with
dignity.

o https://unfccc.int/resource/docs/convkp/conveng.pdf
p See Kyoto Protocol. http://unfccc.int/kyoto_protocol/items/2830.php
q Universal Declaration of the Rights of Mother Earth http://therightsofnature.org/wp-content/uploads/FINAL-

UNIVERSAL-DECLARATION-OF-THE-RIGHTS-OF-MOTHER-EARTH-APRIL-22-2010.pdf
18 (V2 July 2017)
 Consistent action must be taken to build the resilience of present and future
generations, particularly of vulnerable poor communities and the young, so they can
live with confidence, competence, and hope in a climate-change world. We must also
rebuild Earth resilience by appropriate action to enable its recovery and regeneration.
Ecological education is, therefore, needed to raise wide public consciousness and
bring about an ecological change of heart so that people will be mobilised to take right
action. We must prepare, empower and enable current and future generations to face
a climate-change future with confidence, competence and hope. We need to build a
global movement of ecological citizens, and establish living ecological focal
points of hope and resilience everywhere.
Citizens should exercise their power to bring about the needed transformation by
their own transformation and influencing this in others. They have the responsibility
to build resilience and advocate for ecological justice; to demand
accountability, transparency and change from governments, corporations, and
institutions.

19 (V2 July 2017)

Endnotes to Climate Change Notes

1 https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg1/WG1AR5_SummaryVolume_FINAL.pdf
2 https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg1/WG1AR5_SummaryVolume_FINAL.pdf
3 https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/wmo-confirms-2016-hottest-year-record-about-11%C2%B0c-above-pre-industrial-

era
4 https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/wmo-confirms-2016-hottest-year-record-about-11%C2%B0c-above-pre-industrial-

era
5 https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/nov/14/2016-will-be-the-hottest-year-on-record-un-says
6 https://aamboceanservice.blob.core.windows.net/oceanservice-prod/education/pd/climate/factsheets/haschange.pdf
7 http://www.pnas.org/content/113/11/E1434
8 https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/AR5_SYR_FINAL_SPM.pdf
9 https://epa.ie/pubs/conferencesandevents/cc/Frank%20McGovern.pdf
10 http://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/indicators/atmospheric-greenhouse-gas-concentrations-5/assessment
11 https://www.wmo.int/media/content/greenhouse-gas-concentrations-hit-yet-another-record
12 https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/AR5_SYR_FINAL_SPM.pdf
13 https://www.wmo.int/media/content/greenhouse-gas-concentrations-hit-yet-another-record
14 http://www.noaa.gov/news/carbon-dioxide-levels-rose-at-record-pace-for-2nd-straight-year
15 https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/AR5_SYR_FINAL_SPM.pdf
16 http://www.noaa.gov/news/carbon-dioxide-levels-rose-at-record-pace-for-2nd-straight-year
17 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming_potential
18 http://www.britannica.com/science/greenhouse-gas
19 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming_potential
20 http://www3.epa.gov/climatechange/ghgemissions/gases/n2o.html
21 http://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/indicators/atmospheric-greenhouse-gas-concentrations-5/assessment
22 ttps://www.theguardian.com/environment/datablog/2017/jan/19/carbon-countdown-clock-how-much-of-the-worlds-carbon-

budget-have-we-spent
23 http://uc-carbonneutralitysummit2015.ucsd.edu/_files/Bending-the-Curve.pdf
24 https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/AR5_SYR_FINAL_SPM.pdf
25 http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/16/highlights.htm
26 https://www.co2.earth/global-co2-emissions
27 http://www.nature.com/news/one-third-of-our-greenhouse-gas-emissions-come-from-agriculture-1.11708
28 https://www.grain.org/article/entries/5102-food-sovereignty-5-steps-to-cool-the-planet-and-feed-its-people
29 https://www.grain.org/article/entries/4357-food-and-climate-change-the-forgotten-link
30 http://www.fao.org/save-food/resources/keyfindings/en/
31 http://uc-carbonneutralitysummit2015.ucsd.edu/_files/Bending-the-Curve.pdf
32 http://globalforestcoalition.org/whats-at-steak/
33 https://www.chathamhouse.org/publication/livestock-climate-change-forgotten-sector-global-public-opinion-meat-and-dairy
34 https://www.grain.org/article/entries/5639-grabbing-the-bull-by-the-horns-it-s-time-to-cut-industrial-meat-and-dairy-to-save-

the-climate
35 https://www.grain.org/article/entries/5639-grabbing-the-bull-by-the-horns-it-s-time-to-cut-industrial-meat-and-dairy-to-save-

the-climate
36 https://www.chathamhouse.org/expert/comment/left-unchecked-western-diets-could-derail-climate-action
37 http://www.gcftaskforce.org/documents/CBO_deforestation_GHGs.pdf
38 http://www.worldwildlife.org/threats/deforestation
39 http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/solutions/stop-deforestation/tropical-deforestation-and-1.html#.WW9LmISGPcc
40 http://globalforestcoalition.org/whats-at-steak/
41 https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-10-ways-negative-emissions-could-slow-climate-change
42 https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/06/01/climate/us-biggest-carbon-polluter-in-history-will-it-walk-away-from-the-

paris-climate-deal.html
43 https://knoema.com/atlas/Malaysia/CO2-emissions-per-capita
44 http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/earth-1-half-degrees-global-warming-nine-years-climate-change-paris-agreement-

a7726846.html and http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017GL073480/full

45 https://library.wmo.int/opac/doc_num.php?explnum_id=3414
46 https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/nov/14/2016-will-be-the-hottest-year-on-record-un-says
47 https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/earth-flirts-with-a-1-5-degree-celsius-global-warming-threshold1/
48 http://www.theguardian.com/environment/earth-insight/2013/aug/05/7-facts-need-to-know-arctic-methane-time-bomb and

http://www.climategeology.ethz.ch/publications/2013_Vaks_et_al.Scienceexpress.pdf
49 https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/AR5_SYR_FINAL_SPM.pdf
50 http://climateactiontracker.org/news/265/Major-challenges-ahead-for-Paris-Agreement-to-meet-its-1.5deg-warming-limit-.html
51 http://www.climate-change-emergency-medical-response.org/state-of-the-climate.html
52 https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2016/03/30/antarctic-loss-could-double-expected-sea-level-

rise-by-2100-scientists-say/?utm_term=.c79df6167d70
53 http://www.straitstimes.com/world/life-on-earth-faces-global-warming-catastrophe
54 http://www.climatecodered.org/2010/09/what-would-3-degrees-mean.html
55 http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/jul/10/scientists-predict-huge-sea-level-rise-even-if-we-limit-climate-change
56 http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/GlobalWarming/page6.php
57 http://science.nationalgeographic.com/science/prehistoric-world/permian/
58 http://m.rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/371/2001/20120294.full
59 http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/09/150911164146.htm
60 http://climate.nasa.gov/news/2328/
61 http://www.climatecodered.org/2010/09/what-would-3-degrees-mean.html
62 http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-28852980
63 https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2016/climate-trends-continue-to-break-records
64 http://factsanddetails.com/china/cat6/sub38/item1734.html
65 http://factsanddetails.com/china/cat6/sub38/item1734.html

20 (V2 July 2017)

66 http://factsanddetails.com/china/cat6/sub38/item1734.html
67 http://factsanddetails.com/china/cat6/sub38/item1734.html
68 http://www.climate-change-emergency-medical-response.org/state-of-the-climate.html
69 http://www.daraint.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/CVM2ndEd-FrontMatter.pdf
70 Watts et al. (2015) Health and climate change: policy responses to protect public health, The Lancet in

https://www.theccc.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/The-Scientific-and-International-Context-for-the-Fifth-Carbon-
Budget.pdf
71 https://www.theccc.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/The-Scientific-and-International-Context-for-the-Fifth-Carbon-

Budget.pdf
72 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1631069107003770
73 http://www.climatecodered.org/2010/09/what-would-3-degrees-mean.html
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