Risk Management

Presentasi Untuk:
PT.Truba Jurong Engineering
 Project
Integration

Information/
Scope Communication

Human
Quality Project Risk
Resources

Time Procurement

Cost
 Resiko
Dampak.

Probabilitas.

Resiko = Dampak* Probabilitas

 Risk Management
Risk Management Planning.
Risk Identification.
Qualitative Risk Analysis.
Quantitative Risk Analysis.
Risk Response Planning.
Risk Monitoring and Control.
 Scope Scope
Planning Definition

Define Project Activity

Initiating Management Definition
Plan Activity
Resources
Create WBS Estimating

Cost Activity
Risk Estimating Duration
Management
Estimating
Planning
Cost
Budegting
Risk
Identification Activity
Human Sequencing
Resources
Planning
Qualtitative
Risk Schedule
Analysis Quality Development
Planning

Quantitative
Risk
Analysis
Communication Executing
Planning

Plan
Plan
Purchase &
Contracting
Acqusition Closing

Risk
Response
Planning Process Planning
 Enterprise Commercial database
Environment
Factor
Project Management Plan
Policies, Procedure,
Guidelines, lesson learned,
Organizational
Knowledge base Risk
Develop Project
Process assets Management
Management Plan
Planning

Risk Management Plan Approve change request

Approve change request Approved corrective action
Approved preventive action
Project Scope Management Risk
Scope Definition Identification

Risk Register (updates)

Develop Schedule Management plan Qualitative

Project
Cost Management Plan Risk
Management Analysis
Plan Risk Register (updates)

Performance Reporting Quantitative

Performance Risk
reporting Analysis

Risk Register (updates)

Direct & Work performance information
manageProject Risk Project Management Plan update
Execution Response
Planning Risk Register (updates)
Risk Related contractual agreement
Risk register Recommended Preventive actions
Organization Recommended corrective action
process Assets Requested change
(update) Risk Risk register Update Integrated
Close Project Monitoring
Risk Contro
& Control

Project Management Plan Update

Risk Management Process

 Total Risk

Economic Contractual Political Construction Management

Risk Risk Risk Risk Risk
Uncertainty in
Failure of
Inflation Environmental Labor
Payment Productivity
Labor Owner Air Availability
Labor
Material Contractor Noise Skill
Equipment
Equipment Water Uncertainty in
Delay
Equipment Quality
Energy Disputes
Control
Shortage Breakdown

Availability
Coordination Public
Failure Uncertainty in Safety
Disorder
Financial Material
Owner
Uncertainty Demonstration/Riot
Trans/Storage
Contractor
War
Mistakes
Owner Protection

Contractor Availability
Change Order Government Management
Designer Act Delayed Competence
Delay Site Access
Tax Rate Change
Currency Permit Variation in
Design Changes
Fluctuation Permits Quality
Title

Quantity
Labor Disputes
Variation
Defective
Construction
 Quantitative
STANDARD FORM FOR PROJECT RISK ANALYSIS
AN RISK CONGTINGENCIES

Proposal/Order No.

PROJECT RISK ANALYSIS & RISK CONTINGENCY Div/Dept.

Isue
Date No.
RISKCONTINGENSY 2 EXPECED VALUES REF : PROCEDURE
S P
e r Transfer to
q o Posib
u Maximum b le
e a RISK
Risk Outco In A
n R b me su gr
c i i Inte Seri
s Description of r- ous ra ee Su D
e l Ma E In
k Risk dep nes n m b- ev
i ke xc cl C
: Of end Cal ce en C el Acc
Valu t Adj lu us on
Item Y Maximum enc /Hi t on o Pla ept Nor
e y us si io str
e Possible Change y gh/ tra m n as mal
me on n uc
s Of Item Value of Me ct en to Res Co
nt Fr In tio
/ In % Ris d/L or t Co idu ntin
o Es ns Expect
N Amo k ow of Al ntr al gen
Amount m ti Sp ed
o unt V lo ol Ris cy
Sc m ar Value
en w k
op at es
do an
e e
r ce
Risk Elements Enginring Craft Eng.eq. Bulk Sched o/r Insurable Uninsur. Perform. Special Misc.
Control Actions o/r labor o/r o/r mat o/r losses losses guarantee losses

Purchase Insurance
Accept w/contingency
Accept w/o contingency
Sub/vendor prequal.
Transfer-subcontract
Transfer-vendor
Plan&control program
Qual.mgmt.program
Mat'l mgmt. prgram
Safety/loss control
Emergency plan
Contingency plan
Selective hiring
Subtance abuse policy
Supv.training
Off-site staging
Critical items mgmt.
Change control
Competitive bidding
Early buy out
 interdependency of seriousness
probability
risks (quantified)
will happen
catastrophe
high high
medium medium
low low
remote
impact on cost and
schedule
identified
quantified
risks
probability
interdependency
get advice from people who
has been trough it

yes

avoidable eliminate

no

probability yes
and/seriousness make adjustment
reducible

no yes
no seriousness low no action

transferable by yes
insurance or make appropriate
agreement with the arrangements
client

no
yes
develop plans to minimize
controllable
cost and control

no

what is/are the residual risk

(s)?

funds/ risk contingencies

analisa resiko dan kontingensi

 Qualitative Analysis

High
Risk Event Probability

Medium

Low

Low Medium High

Risk Severity
Perbandingan Perhitungan Estimasi Biaya dengan
Cara Traditionil dan Monte Carlo
C a r a T r a d is io n il
T a r g e t B ia y a M ark U p C o n tin g e n c i
es
E n g in e e rin g 8 0 0 .0 0 1 5 .0 0 % 1 2 0 .0 0
C ra f t L a p o r 6 ,5 0 0 .0 0 2 0 .0 0 % 1 ,3 0 0 .0 0
E n g in e e re d E q u ip m en t 6 ,0 0 0 .0 0 1 0 .0 0 % 6 0 0 .0 0
B u lk M a tre ia l 6 ,2 0 0 .0 0 1 0 .0 0 % 6 2 0 .0 0
O th er P roje c t c o s t 1 ,0 0 0 .0 0 5 .0 0 % 5 0 .0 0
L iq u id a ted D a m a g e d LS 1 1 0 .0 0
C o n tin g e n c ie s 2 ,8 0 0 .0 0 1 3 .6 6 %
2 0 ,5 0 0 .0 0
P e rk ira a n b ia ya 2 3 ,3 0 0 .0 0

C a r a M o n te C a r lo T a rg e t B ia ya

E n g in e e rin g 8 0 0 .0 0
C ra f t L a p o r 6 ,5 0 0 .0 0
E n g in e e re d E q u ip m en t 6 ,0 0 0 .0 0
B u lk M a tre ia l 6 ,2 0 0 .0 0
O th er P roje c t c o s t 1 ,0 0 0 .0 0
L iq u id a ted D a m a g e d 1 1 0 .0 0
2 0 ,6 1 0 .0 0
P e rk ira a n b ia ya d ib a w a h 2 3 ,3 0 0 .0 0
D e n g a n P ro b a b ilita s 66%
 Probabilitas Biaya
Forecast: B20
50 Trials Cumulative Chart 50 Displayed
1.000 50

.750 37.5

.500 25

.250 12.5

.000 0
19,174.86 20,875.32 22,575.77 24,276.22 25,976.67
Certainty is 66.00% from -Infinity to 23,301.29
 Risk Response
Risk Avoidance.
Risk Transfer.
Risk Mitigation
Lost Prevention.
Lost Reduction.
Information Management.
Risk Acceptance
 Risk Control
Risk Transfer Risk Mitigation
Insurance. Plan to Control
Agreement. Loss Prevention
Sub-Contractor or Vendor.
Risk Retention
Exclusion From Scope
Development
Allowance.
Constructions Spares.
Inclusion In Estimate
Accept as Residual
Risk
Normal Contingency
 Choice between retention and
transfer.
Legal, economic, Public policy limitation.
Degree of control.
Insurance loading fees.
Value of services provided by insurers.
Opportunity cost.
Tax Considerations.
Retention may be the only possible
method
 Insurance
A contractual agreement.
A premium payment by the insured.
A benefit payment conditioned on
circumstances (usually misfortune) defined
in insurance contract.
The presence of a pool of resources held
by the insurer to reimburse claim.