Lollapalooza: Ira Sohn - May 4, 2016

LOLLAPALOOZA
Ira Sohn May 4, 2016

www.gwinvestors.com - @gwinvestors
Disclaimer
This presentation has been distributed for informational purposes only. Neither the
information nor any opinions expressed constitute a recommendation to buy or sell the
securities mentioned, or to invest in any investment product or strategy related to such
securities. It is not intended to provide personal investment advice, and it does not take
into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any
person or entity that may receive this presentation. Persons reading this presentation
should seek professional financial advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any
securities discussed in this introduction. The authors opinions are subject to change
without notice. Forecasts, estimates, and certain information contained herein are based
upon proprietary research, and the information used in such process was obtained from
publicly available sources. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources
believed to be reliable, but such reliability is not guaranteed. Investment accounts managed
by GreenWood Investors LLC and its affiliates have positions in the securities discussed in
this introduction. GreenWood Investors LLC may re-evaluate its holdings in such positions
and sell or cover certain positions without notice. No part of this presentation may be
reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written
permission of GreenWood Investors LLC.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Our portfolio consists of a great team of managers
guiding under-appreciated companies through
transformational moments in their history.
Lollapalooza
What if you could get this
3G Capital Berkshire Hathaway

www.gwinvestors.com - @gwinvestors Markel
At his preferred Valuation
Ben Graham www.gwinvestors.com - @gwinvestors

Forward PE Forward PE Price / Book Price / Book
26.6x 32.8x 1.60x / 160% 1.41x / 141%
Obviously this isnt possible.

Source: Factset
Combing the World For Another
Early Career Absolute Performance Early Career Relative Performance
450% 250%
400%
350% 200%
300%
250% 150%
200%
100%
150%
100%
50%
50%
0% 0%
Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7
A Price Ben Graham Would Love
Price / NAV
0.65x / 65%
Price / Book
1.41x / 141%
Powerful Value Drivers
Reinsurance capital
Value-Added Investor Less Investor Competition
Exceptional Management teams
ROIC Focus
Concentrated, Contrarian
Why Does This Opportunity Exist?
0%
5%
-15%
-10%
-5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Italy
China
Japan
Finland
Switzerland
Sri Lanka
Belgium
Israel
Denmark
Portugal
Europe
Czech
Germany
Sweden
Austria
Hong Kong
Spain
Australia
France
Singapore
India
Malaysia
UK
Netherlands
Norway
Poland
Taiwan
South Korea
Philippines
USA
Pakistan
YTD Stock Market Index Performance
South Africa
Indonesia
New Zealand
Canada
Mexico
Chile
Venezuela
Worst Performing Index in the World YTD
Thailand
Egypt
Hungary
Argentina
Turkey
Russia
Brazil
Consumer Confidence @ Record Highs
Italian Unemployment & Consumer Confidence
125 5.0%
120 6.0%
115 7.0%
110 8.0%
9.0%
105
10.0%
Better
100
11.0%
95 12.0%
90 13.0%
85 14.0%
80 15.0%
11/1/95
11/1/00
11/1/05
11/1/10
11/1/15
1/1/95
9/1/96
7/1/97
5/1/98
3/1/99
1/1/00
9/1/01
7/1/02
5/1/03
3/1/04
1/1/05
9/1/06
7/1/07
5/1/08
3/1/09
1/1/10
9/1/11
7/1/12
5/1/13
3/1/14
1/1/15
Confidence (LH) Unemployment (RH - Inverse)
4.4% Revenue
from Italy
Now a Significant Discount to NAV
70.00 45.0%
65.00
Discount (RH)
NAV (LH) 40.0%
60.00
55.00
35.0%
50.00
45.00 30.0%
40.00
35.00 Stock (LH) 25.0%
30.00
20.0%
25.00
20.00 15.0%
Flashback to Markels Alterra Deal
$1,000 2.0x
1.9x
$900
1.8x
Stock Price (LH)
1.7x
$800
1.6x
$700 1.5x
Price / Book (RH) 1.4x
$600
1.3x
1.2x
$500
1.1x
$400 1.0x
11/6/12
11/6/13
11/6/14
11/6/15
1/6/12
3/6/12
5/6/12
7/6/12
9/6/12
1/6/13
3/6/13
5/6/13
7/6/13
9/6/13
1/6/14
3/6/14
5/6/14
7/6/14
9/6/14
1/6/15
3/6/15
5/6/15
7/6/15
9/6/15
1/6/16
3/6/16
We Dont Want the Discount to Narrow
45.00 60%
NAV Per Share
40.00
50%
35.00
Discount to NAV (RH)
30.00 40%
25.00
30%
20.00
Stock Price
15.00 20%
Repurchase Volume
10.00
10%
5.00
0.00 0%
1/1/13 2/1/13 3/1/13 4/1/13 5/1/13 6/1/13 7/1/13 8/1/13
Concentrated Private Equity Portfolio
NAV: 50.41
14.98
Vs.
26.05 32.80
10.28
(35% Discount)
7.36 Net Debt
Others 2.96
10.28 All figures per EXO share
History of Value-Add Management
March 2007 May 2015
160%
144.6%
140%
120%
100%
80%
60% 53.8%
40%
20% 12.1%
0%
Best-In-Class Underwriting
140.0%
Berkshire PartnerRe Munich Re
130.0%
Everest Re Swiss Re Hannover Re
120.0%
Better
110.0%
100.0%
90.0%
80.0%
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
20-Year Pre-Investment Combined Ratio
98.9% 99.0%
98.9% Free Capital
Reasonable Price Paid
$9,000
$8,000
0.86x
$7,000 1.08x
$6,000
$5,000
$4,000
$3,000
$2,000
$1,000
$0
Cash Paid Tangible Book Value Reserve Redundancies
Capital Leaving Industry
Estimated Global Reinsurance Capacity
140,000
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Lower interest rates make funding from reinsurance policies less

attractive to non-core players.
A Capital Junkie in a Mad World
CEOs Focus Matters
200% 184.1%
150%
100% 71.2%
57.8% 53.9%
50% 36.6% 32.2% 28.9% 22.7%
4.4%
0%
-8.3% -17.8% -20.1%
-50%
Marchionne Mulally Toyoda Zetsche Ghosn- Ghosn - Winterko Mueller Tavares Fields Barra Krueger
Renault Nissan rn
6/04 9/06 6/09 1/06 5/05 6/01 1/07 9/15 3/14 7/14 1/14 5/15
ROIC Global Crisis Restru- Global Crisis #1 in Crisis Crisis Mobility Product Electric
Platform Mgmt cturing Platform Mgmt World Mgmt Mgmt
A Junkie Who No One Believes
FCA's Projected EBIT
10,000
9,000
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2015 2016 2017 2018
Estimates Plan
Who Has Missed A Few Targets
Capital Redirected
Investment: 2015 FCF:

$3,718 $3,728
Fiat cash outlay (Our Estimates)
100% Cash ROIC

Key Drivers
1. New Product
2. Reduced Incentives on Old Vehicles
3. Commodities Savings
4. Balance Sheet Savings
1. New Product Next 12 Months
Base Case Base EBIT % of 2015 Bear Case Bear EBIT % of 2015
Model Volumes Contribution EBIT Volumes Contribution EBIT
Alfa Romeo Giulia 76.6k 361.7 7.1% 54.8k 258.6 5.1%
Maserati Levante 25.2k 362.1 7.1% 11.2k 161.5 3.2%
Fiat Toro (Brazil only) 69.1k 290.7 5.7% 30.3k 127.7 2.5%
Chinese Local Jeeps
190.0k 323.3 6.3% 152.0k 258.7 5.1%
(Cherokee & Renegade)
Fiat Tipo 71.7k 286.8 5.7% 43.5k 152.3 3.0%
2016 New Segments 432.6k 1,624.6 31.8% 291.8k 958.8 18.8%
950-1600 million tailwind

2. Reduced Incentives
Model Town & Country Jeep Compass / Dodge Journey Fiat Punto
Patriot
Old Model
Refreshing* Q1-2 2016 2H 2016 Mid 2016 Q4 2016

Avg. MSRP $35,471 $23,058 $26,828 10,990
Current $4,500 $3,750 $2,875 2,235
Incentive
600-700 million tailwind

3. Commodities Savings
Commodities per vehicle 12/2014 Value 12/2015 Value Change
Steel $669 $432 -$237
Iron Castings $34 $19 -$14
Aluminum $287 $236 -$51
Copper / Brass $168 $126 -$42
Platinum $128 $94 -$34
Rhodium $18 $9 -$8
Palladium $56 $40 -$17
Plastic $260 $168 -$92
Rubber $639 $457 -$182
Total (per vehicle) -$676
2015 Volumes (millions) 4.16
Total Fleet-Wide Change (millions) -2,833
>700 million tailwind if 25% Pass Through

4. Balance Sheet Savings
FCA Harmonized Balance Sheet
25,000
Net Debt Cash
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
2015 2016 2017
-5,000
-10,000 2,346 Interest 1,699 Interest 1,229
~75% of 2015 EBIT Incremental
Balance Sheet Strengthening
Net Leverage
1.60x
1.40x
1.20x
1.00x
0.80x
0.60x
0.40x
Historical Forecasted
0.20x
0.00x
-0.20x
Investment-Grade Rating Coming

Relative Fair Value
40.00
35.58
35.00 33.23
30.00
25.00
21.00
19.84
20.00
15.00
10.00
Current
5.00 Price
0.00
Average Ford Valuation Average GM Valuation
2016 2017
Agricultural Coiled Spring
Production < Retail Demand
Corn Still Below Economic Break-even
$9.00
Corn Price
$8.00
$7.00
$6.00
$5.00
$4.00
$3.00 Breakeven Price
$2.00
$1.00
$0.00
Source: USDA www.gwinvestors.com - @gwinvestors

Heavy Short Exposure
200,000 9.00
Corn Price
CBOT Open Interest 8.00
150,000
7.00
100,000
6.00
50,000 5.00
0 4.00
6/16/06 6/16/07 6/16/08 6/16/09 6/16/10 6/16/11 6/16/12 6/16/13 6/16/14 6/16/15
3.00
-50,000
2.00
-100,000
1.00
-150,000 0.00
Winding Up the Coiled Spring
Days to Cover Short Interest
10.6 27.7 11.6
Significant Operating Leverage
7.7% 31.2%
2015 EBIT Margin Incremental Margin
Normalization Drives Significant Upside
$1,432 +$1,294
Ag Demand
2015 Industrial EBIT
Normalization
Is Ferrari a Luxury Company?
Limited Editions Outperform the S&P 500
25.0%
19.4%
20.0% 18.6%
15.9%
15.0% 13.0%
11.9%
10.0% 8.3% 8.7%

7.6%
6.5% 6.1% 6.6%
5.0% 4.0%
0.0%
250 GTO 288 GTO F40 F50 Enzo 599 GTO
Even Looking at the Worst Performer
What other products appreciate
in value after sale?
Demand Recession-Proof
40%
29% 2008 2009 Cumulative
30%
20% 18%
10% 7%
3% -6% -9%
0%
Porsche
Bentley
Lamborghini*
Prada
Burberry
Ferrari
Daimler
Hermes
BMW
LVMH
-10%
-20%
-21%
-30%
-32%
-40%
-41%
-50%
-60%
-59%
-70%
2015
Incremental
Car EBIT
Deliveries
margin
+6% 76%
FCF > Double
8.00 14.0%
7.00 12.0%
FCF per share (LH) FCF Yield (RH)
6.00 5.40 5.46
5.17 10.0%
5.00
8.0%
4.00 3.65
6.0%
3.00
2.28
1.89 1.92 1.92 4.0%
2.00
1.00 2.0%
0.00 0.0%
12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Cheapest In Class
30.0x 27.6x
15 EBITDA 16 EBITDA 17 EBITDA
25.0x
20.0x
15.3x
15.0x
11.0x
10.0x 8.8x 8.9x 8.6x 8.3x
5.3x
5.0x
0.0x
Tesla Hermes Man U Burberry Prada Richemont LVMH Ferrari
Putting the Pieces Together
Concentrated Private Equity Portfolio
NAV: 50.41
14.98
Vs.
10.28 26.05 32.80
(35% Discount)
7.36 Net Debt
Others 2.96
NAV Set to Triple
NAV: 151.03
26.05
45.50
72.00 Net Debt
10.28
Others 2.96
Right in Every Way
Time Strategy Price
70.00 45.0%
65.00
40.0%
60.00
Lowers cost 55.00

50.00
35.0%
of capital 45.00
40.00
30.0%
25.0%
35.00
30.00
20.0%
Are all coiled 25.00
20.00 15.0%
springs 3G-Style
11/2/15
1/2/15
3/2/15
5/2/15
7/2/15
9/2/15
1/2/16
3/2/16
5/2/16
Focus
Learn from Others Mistakes
20k Class A BRK Shares Sold at ~$35
Set it and Forget It.

Lollapalooza: Ira Sohn - May 4, 2016

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LOLLAPALOOZA

Ira Sohn May 4, 2016

3G Capital Berkshire Hathaway

Ben Graham www.gwinvestors.com - @gwinvestors

Obviously this isnt possible.

Lower interest rates make funding from reinsurance policies less

Investment: 2015 FCF:

100% Cash ROIC

950-1600 million tailwind

Refreshing* Q1-2 2016 2H 2016 Mid 2016 Q4 2016

600-700 million tailwind

>700 million tailwind if 25% Pass Through

-10,000 2,346 Interest 1,699 Interest 1,229

Investment-Grade Rating Coming

Source: USDA www.gwinvestors.com - @gwinvestors

Days to Cover Short Interest

10.6 27.7 11.6

10.0% 8.3% 8.7%

Lowers cost 55.00

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