1

ROAD ACCIDENTS IN SAUDI ARABIA: A COMPARATIVE AND

ANALYTICAL STUDY

Ali. S. Al-Ghamdi1

ABSTRACT: The main goal of this study is to discusses the magnitude of traffic
accidents in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) over the last fifteen years and to
compare the situation of traffic safety with that of other countries. This developing
country has experienced a rapid economic growth resulting in an enormous increase in
the motorization rate (vehicle per 1000 population) associated with rapidly expanding
road construction. As a result, traffic accidents have become a serious problem facing the
country. During the period from 1971 to 1994, the numbers of traffic accidents, injuries ,
and fatalities have increased by 30 times, 6 times, and 7 times, respectively. This study
showed that both fatality rate and accident severity have increased and the need for
improvement is urgently needed.

INTRODUCTION
The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) has experienced a rapid economic growth
since the oil boom in 1973 resulting in an enormous increase in the motorization rate
(vehicle per 1000 population) associated with rapidly expanding road construction. The
number of registered vehicles has increased from 144,768 in 1970 to 5,861,614 in 1994, a
forty-fold increase in 24 years [General Traffic Directorate (1971-1994)]. This growth in
motorization has accompanied with a drastic increase in the size of the road network in
the country. The length of paved roads has increased dramatically from 8500 km in 1970
to 43,003 km in 1992, a nearly five-fold increase in 22 years [Ministry of
Communications, 1994]. As a result of this remarkable growth in motorization and the
road-network size, traffic accidents have become a serious problem facing this
developing country. During the period from 1971 to 1994, the numbers of traffic
accidents, injuries , and fatalities have increased by 30 times, 6 times, and 7 times,
respectively (see Table 1 and Fig.1). Fig.2 depicts that during the period 1971-1994 while
fatality rates (per person) increased by 157%, the fatality rates (per vehicle) decreased by
82%. This figure also shows that there were tendencies for fatality and injury rates per
vehicle to decrease and per person to increase over time. Such trends agree with what
Smeed [1949 and 1968] found as will be discussed shortly. Bener and Jadaan (1992)
found that road traffic fatalities is at the top of the list of major causes of death. Statistics
in USA [National Safety Council, 1994] ranked road traffic fatalities as the third most
common cause of death in all age group. The size of the problem can be shown by
comparing accident severity and cost in KSA with those in USA, as presented in Table 2.
The table reveals that the percentage of injury accidents in KSA is almost double that in
USA. The percentage of fatal accidents in KSA is 2.6% and the corresponding percentage
for USA is 0.313. This is more than eight times. The cost of a traffic accident in KSA is
1.7 times greater than that in USA. These percentages and numbers show that the loss of
life and the accompanied economic loss to the country are large when compared with
1
Ass. Prof., Dept. of Civi. Eng., King Saud Univ., Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
 2

USA. Statistics have also shown that more than about eighty percent of all reported
accidents occurred in KSA during the last five years (1990-1994) were attributed to the
driver. Therefore, it is of primary importance to study driver-related factors (human
factors) than may contribute to the problem.

The objective of this study is twofold: 1) to discuss the magnitude of traffic

accidents in this developing country over the last fifteen years and to compare the
situation of traffic safety with that of other countries and 2) to analyze road accidents
with more emphasis on human factors. The firs objective will be achieved by examining
changes in accident rates over the past two decades and comparing these rates with those
in some developing (e.g., Egypt, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Mexico) and developed countries
(e.g., USA, UK, Sweden, Germany, and Canada) by using Smeeds formula. The second
objective will be attained by analyzing data obtained from police records using statistical
techniques such as odds ratio and proportion comparisons

DATA SOURCES AND LIMITATIONS

In order to quantify the magnitude of the traffic-accident problem, accident data
should be available and reliable. In many countries, especially in the developed world,
data may come from different sources, including police, insurance, and hospital records.
The situation, however, is different in developing countries, where the only sort of data is
the police [Asogwa (1982), Jacobs and Sayer (1983), Gharaybeh (1994)]. In these
countries, the police accident data are not collected with a view to providing research
information but for the purposes of litigations [Asogwa (1982), Jacobs and Sayer (1983)].
Therefore, such data do not have detailed information to carry out in-depth research.

Similar to other developing countries, the main source of road accident data in
KSA is the police. The Publication of Road Accident Statistics which is yearly
published by the General Directorate of Traffic, Ministry of Interior (1971-1994),
contains all reported accidents with information related to the driver (e.g., age, education,
and marital status) and the accident (type, cause, time, and severity). Such data reveal
three main problems with police records [Al-Ghamdi (1993), (1994), (1995)]: (1) Until
1991, accident data were restricted to the fatal and injury accidents (i.e., no consideration
for property-damage-only (PDO) accidents), (2) deficiency in reporting system exists due
to incomplete, unclear, and/or incorrect data, and (3) Filling system is primitive (i.e.,
reports are filled manually and no computerization is made to maintain data). Besides, the
reliability of police reports is questionable because policemen are not trained as
engineers and look for prosecution data rather than engineering problems [Ergun (1987),
Al-Ghamdi (1994)]. Thus, researchers face difficulties in collecting accident data due to
manual searching in the files and other problems just mentioned. In this study, great
efforts were made to obtain data from police records and to extract other nations data
from literature.

The definition of developed and developing contries is not given herein. World Bank relates this
definition to gross national product (GNP) per capita [see World Tables].
 3

ACCIDENT RATES COMPARED

Three known measures can be used for accident comparisons when related to
motorization rate (vehicles per 1000 persons (V/P)): 1) fatalities per 10,000 persons
(F/P), 2) fatalities per 1000 vehicles (F/V), and 3) fatalities per 100 million vehicle
kilometers (F/VK). The last one (F/VK) is the best measure for making reliable
comparisons among nations since it takes the total amount of travel into consideration.
However, this measure is not available for KSA. Therefore, the other two measures (F/P
and F/V) are used herein for comparison purposes.

Fig. 3 (based on very recent data) shows that road accident fatality rates (i.e.,
deaths per 10,000 vehicles) are high in developing countries very often more than 5 times
greater than for those countries of Western Europe and North America (Jacob and Sayer
(1983) reported 20 times based on 1970s data). Among 40 nations, KSA ranks the 25th as
depicted in Fig. 3. About 8 persons per 10,000 vehicles are killed in traffic accidents in
KSA. Taking into account motorization level, the interpretation of this rate is different as
discussed below.

The work of Smeed (1949, 1968) on data from developed countries have shown
that there were tendencies for fatality rates per vehicle to decrease and per person to
increase over time. Fig. 2 suggests that the same findings of Smeed apply to KSA as
well. It is obvious from the figure that when accidents, injuries, and fatalities are related
to population, the rate increases with time, meanwhile when these items are related to
registered vehicles, the rate decreases. Smeed represented the trend for fatality rate per
vehicle in the following form:

F V
(1) =
V P

F
, the death rate per registered vehicle, It follows from the above formula that
V
V
, the proportion of vehicles in population (motorization), increases. Smeed decreases as
P
applied this formula on data from 20 developed countries and found that the death rate is
varying approximately inversely as the two-thirds power of the proportion of vehicles to
are 0.0003 and 2/3, respectively. and the population. In other words, he found that
Applying Smeeds formula on data from 35 developing countries, Jacobs and Cutting
are 0.00039 and 0.64, respectively. In addition Jacobs and and (1986) found that
Cutting (1980) repeated the earlier work of Smeed on data from developed countries and
are 0.00021 and 0.72, respectively, indicating that the fatality rates and found that
based on registered vehicles in these countries have decreased between 1938 and 1980.
 4

In this study, Smeed formula was used on KSA data for the period from 1971 to
. The linear and 1994 (Table 1). Regression technique is employed to estimate
transformation of eq. (1) was first obtained by taking its logarithm:

V F
= log log
P V

and hence

F V
log = log log
V P

The linear transformation was then regressed to give the following model:

F V
) R 2 92% ( log = 810
. 0.795 log
V P

for the case of KSA were and By taking the antilog of the above mode, the values of
found to be 0.0003 and 0.795, respectively. Thus, the modified Smeeds formula for the
case of KSA becomes:

0.795
F V
(2) = 0.0003
V P

The fitted values obtained from this model along with actual fatality rates are
plotted against motorization level in Fig. 4. The model shows reasonable fit. When
plotted over time (1971-1994), actual and modeled data show a downward trend
indicating that an overall improvement in safety levels have achieved over years (Fig. 5).
Yet, it is obvious from this figure that the last five years (1990-1994) have depicted a
slow raising trend in fatality rates implying that safety levels show no improvement
lately. This increasing trend was also detected using time series modeling in earlier
studies conducted by the author [Al-Ghamdi (1993) and (1994)].

When actual rates plotted with fitted curves of developing and developed
countries found by Jacobs and Cutting (1980,1986) , the level of traffic safety in terms of
death per vehicle has achieved a significant improvement with the increase of
motorization as shown in Fig. 6. For example, at the level of motorization level of 300
and above the majority of points are below the developing country curve and become
closer from the developed countries curve.
 5

Fig. 7 illustrates fatality rates related to motorization levels for fourteen countries.
The figure shows both fitted curves for developed and developing countries obtained by
Jacobs and Cutting. It can be concluded from this figure that KSA lies almost under the
fitted line for developing countries. This implies that in relative to its motorization level,
KSA has low fatality rate compared to those of other developing countries. On the other
hand, KSA lies relatively far above the fitted curve of developed countries suggesting
that its fatality rate is still high compared to those of developed countries. It is also
apparent from this figure that KSA is relatively in a reasonable position among other
countries. For example, KSA has a higher motorization level than some other countries
(e.g., Egypt, South Korea, Jordan, Mexico, Brazil, and Venezuela), its fatality rate is yet
much lower.

ACCIDENT SEVERITY USING ODDS RATIO

A commonly used technique in the analysis of categorical data is the examination
of odds ratios (). Refer to Table 3. Within row 1, the odds that the response is in column
. Within row 2, the corresponding 1 = n11 / n21 1 instead of column 2 is defined to be
. The odds ratio is simply the ratio of these two odds 2 = n12 / n22 odds equals
[Agresti,1990]:

1 n n
(3) = = 11 22
21 n12 n21

The odds ratio (non negative number) is also termed the cross-product ratio and the
approximate relative risk [Fleiss, 1981].

Taking the year of 1971 as a reference, the odds ratios of fatalities among
$ e z accident victims (injuries + fatalities) with 95% confidence intervals (
[Cristensen,1990]) were computed for the years from 1972 to 1994 as presented in Table
4 and plotted in Fig. 8. That is, the measure of odds ratio is used in this study as a
severity index to asses the levels of accident severity over time. For illustration, Table 5
gives the frequencies of fatalities and injuries for 1994 and 1971 in KSA. The odds ratio
= 1.02).This is an estimate of the $ computed from this table using (3) is 1.02 (
population odds ratio but it is fairly not far from 1 and it means that the odds of a victim
being killed in a traffic accident occurred in 1991 equals to the odds of a victim being
killed in a traffic accident occurred in 1971. Thus, the levels of accident severity in 1971
and 1994 are almost even suggesting that no improvement in this dimension seems to
take place between these two points of time. Yet, it should be perceived from Fig. 8 that,
overall, since 1985 the levels of severity have shown some sign of improvement
compared to the period between 1975 and 1985. The maximum severity was observed in
1977 where the odds ratio equals to 1.51 indicating that the odds of a victim being killed
in a traffic accident occurred in 1977 was 1.5 (one and a half) time as large as the odds of
 6

a victim being killed in a traffic accident occurred in 1971. The severity over the past five
years has displayed a general increase.

FACTORS CONTRIBUTING TO ACCIDENTS

Traffic accidents can be attributed to human, vehicular, and environmental
factors. When considered alone, human factors have been found to contribute to 57
percent of the accidents in the developed countries. Together with vehicular and
environmental factors, human factors account for about 92 percent [Ergun (1984)]. The
following sections discuss road, vehicular and human factors.

Road Factors
Despite more than two decades of modern road building in KSA, knowledge of
the safety consequences of highway design decisions is limited. The Ministry of
Communications is responsible for road design and construction in the country. This
agency relies on design standard implemented in developed countries. Engineering data
for investigating relationships between safety and highway design features are not
available due to the problems with the current accident reporting system mentioned
earlier.

Vehicular Factors
About 5% (compared to 1.6% in USA [National Safety Council, 1994] of road
accidents in KSA were attributed to vehicular factors. In many developed countries 2 to
20 percent of accidents have been related to such factors [Treat,1980]. KSA has started a
periodic Motor Vehicle Inspection Program (MVIP) in 1986. All vehicles must be
inspected on an annual basis. The program gives more attention to the vehicle tires,
lights, steering and braking system. Recently, inspection stations of MVIP cover 90% of
the country [Ministry of Communications,1994]. Ergurn (1987) found that the average
condition of vehicles in KSA is worse than that of vehicles in some USA states
(Missouri, California, and Pennsylvania). Furthermore, he observed that there was a
strong relationship between driver characteristics (e.g., income and education) and
vehicle condition. Unfortunately, no in-depth studies have been conducted on the role of
various vehicle defects in accident causation in KSA. However, it appears from statistics
that involvement of such factors is very small (about 5%) compared with that of human
errors.

Human Factors
As mentioned earlier, about eighty percent of accidents reported in KSA during
1994 were attributed to drivers. Lee (1986) evaluated human factors on traffic accidents
in Riyadh (The capital of KSA) and reported very close percentage (84%). Hence,
studying human factors such as age, nationality, and education is of interest. Several
variables related to the driver are analyzed below.

Age
 7

Among other age groups, drivers of 30-40 year old are more involved in road
accidents, as illustrated in Fig.9.a. It should be stated that drivers less than 40 year old
(an important slice of society needed badly to move the development wheel in this
developing country) represent about 68% of all drivers involved in accidents. more than
one third of those drivers stayed in hospitals for treatments [Undergoing study by the
other]. This indicates how much loss accidents made to the society.

The teenage drivers involved in 2.05% of all accidents occurred in USA during
1993 [National Highway Safety,1994]. The corresponding percentage for KSA is about
7%, i.e. three times greater.

Nationality
Non-Saudis account for about 38% of the country population[Ministry of
National Economy and Finance, 1993], they yet involved in 44 percent of accidents. In
other words, Saudis and non-Saudis are almost equally involved in road accidents
(Fig.9.b). This may be attributed to the presence of expatriates from all over the world.
The drivers of this population come from different cultures with different habits and
attitudes. Thus, the wide differences in their backgrounds may create traffic-safety-
related problems. This raises the need for a unique educational and training program
developed in cooperation with the diplomatic sector for each nationality.

Marital Status
According to police data, married drivers have found to be involved in more
accidents than single ones, as shown in Fig.10.c . Yet, the percentage of the two groups
are very close. It should be stated that based on Islamic rules women are not allowed to
drive in KSA. Therefore, female drivers are not involved in this analysis.

Education
Data from police records indicate that 20% of drivers involved in road accidents
in KSA over the period 1990-1994 had never attended school and were illiterate
(Fi.g.9.d). This group in the population of drivers needs a special consideration from
traffic safety planners during public awareness campaigns. The interesting observation is
that the percentage of illiterate drivers has reduced from 31% in the period 1980-1984 to
20% in the period 1990-1994, 11% decrease. It should be mentioned that no data is
available to lead us to know the proportion of illiterate drivers in the whole population of
drivers in order to conduct more reliable comparison between the two groups of drivers
in terms of education.

Drivers License
Fig.11 depicts the percentages of drivers without a drivers license involved in
accidents in the country over fifteen years (1980-1994). During that period the percent
reached its peak (69.5%) in 1983 and decreased drastically to 11 percent in 1990.
Although the percentage of drivers committed this violation has achieved a remarkable
reduction between the two five-year periods as given in Table 6 (from 34% to 14%,
statistically significant at 0.05 level), this percentage increased steadily in the past five
 8

years (i.e., from 11% in 1990 to 19% in 1994 (Fig.9.e)). This may raise questions about
law enforcement measures for unlicensed drivers.

ACCIDENT CHARACTERISTICS
In this section, typical characteristics of road accidents are analyzed. These
characteristics include accident time, location, type, and cause. Through the analysis the
percentages of some characteristics are compared with those in USA.

Time of occurrence
Government statistics indicate that 63% of traffic accidents occur during day time
(Fi.g.10.a) This is a large percentage when compared to that of USA (48%). Moreover,
fatality rates are higher in daytime in KSA. Yet, fatality crash rates during nighttime are
much higher in USA than daytime rates. In fact they are almost five times higher
[IIHS,1992]. The reason could be the smaller percentage of night travel in KSA due to
the lack of night entertainment places, low level of industrialization (work time is
between 8 a.m. and 2:30 p.m.), and social habits related to traditions. Further, alcohol
consumption, which is considered popular cause of accidents in other countries, is
forbidden in KSA. In terms of days, Fig.10.b gives the distribution of accident
percentages by day of weekdays. It can be observed that the accident occurrence is
almost uniformly distributed over days. In other words, the likelihood of accident
occurrence in any day of the week is roughly even.

Location of occurrence
Fig.10.c show that the majority of traffic accidents (80%) occur inside the cities.
This may reflect the huge amount of travel (vehicle kilometers) driven within urban
areas. Although it is expected that the severity of rural accidents (death per accident) is
higher than that of urban accidents, this can not be confirmed for KSA due to the lack of
detailed data. A study conducted by the author [Al-Ghamdi,1995] showed that 53% of
urban accidents occurred in Riyadh occurred at intersections and more than half of these
accidents were right-angle collisions due to running the red light.

Types of accidents
The official statistics in KSA classify accident types into two categories: 1)
collisions (i.e., with other motor vehicle(s), pedestrians, fixed objects, and animal), and
2) noncollision (i.e., roll-over and off-road). Table 7 gives the percentages for
classifications under the two categories for KSA and USA. Both countries have almost a
uniform distribution for accident types except for collision with pedestrians (KSA is
about five six times greater) and collision with animal (USA is about four times greater).
The percentages of accidents by type is given in Fig.10.d.

Causes of accidents
 9

The distribution of accidents by cause is shown in Fig.10.e. Among other causes

violating speed limit ranks first followed by running the red light. Nearly 70% of
accidents were attributed to speeding in excess of posted speed limit and failure to obey
traffic signal indication. About forty-two percent of accidents were attributed to
speeding. When compared with USA, KSA has 1.6 times more accidents due to speed as
presented in Table 7. One fourth of accidents were due to traffic rule violations (e.g.,
improper turning, overtaking, and stopping). From Table 7 it can be concluded that the
percentages of improper-overtaking and disregarded-signal accidents in KSA are about
eight times and four times higher than in USA, respectively.

As discussed above, speeding and running the red light are the predominant
violations among other violations committed by drivers in KSA. Thus, more analysis
regarding the two violations are presented below. The question of interest is: have these
violations decreased over the last fifteen years? To answer this question the proportions
of each violation for two five-year periods (i.e., 1980-1984 and 1990-1994) were
), frequency n statistically compared. Table 6 presents the total number of violations (
) related to corresponding violation during each of the two p ) and proportion ( x (
periods. The hypothesis test performed, using z-test for comparing two proportions, has
the following form:

Ho : p1 p2 = 0 versus Ha : p1 p2 > 0

is the proportion of corresponding variable (violation) during the ith 5-year pi where
period and

1 1980 1984
.i =
2 1990 1994

The hypothesis tests conclude the following:

A significant reduction (at 0.05 level) in speeding violation was observed between the
two periods. That is, a sound improvement in lowering the frequency of this
dangerous violation has been achieved (Reject the null hypothesis).
No significant difference was found between the proportions of running the red light
violation indicating that drivers still disregard the red indication (Accept the null
hypothesis).

USAGE OF SEAT BELTS

As discussed above, the severity index has increased recently using odds ratio.
One effective way to reduce severity during the occurrence of a road accident is by using
seat belts. Less than 2% [Lee, 1983] of the drivers involved in accidents in KSA were
belted compared to 62% and 90% in USA and Canada, receptively [IIHS,1995]. Past
studies have shown that safety belts reduce the chance of death or serious injury in a
crash by almost half. Other studies indicated that in front crashes drivers reported to be
 10

using their belts enjoyed an extra margin of protection with air bags [IIHS,1992]. Driver
deaths in frontal crashes were 20 percent lower among belted drivers of passenger cars
equipped with air bags than among belted drivers in cars without air bags. That is, air
bags are more effective with the use of safety belts. Despite these facts, KSA has no
safety belt use laws. Further, no public awareness campaign has been conducted to
educate drivers for the importance of wearing seat belts.

DISCUSSION
This study has shown that despite the enormous increase in the number of
registered vehicles in KSA, fatality rates (per registered vehicle) appears to decline.
Using odds ratio, accident severity has declined over the past 25 years. Despite the
overall decreasing trend in both fatality rates and severity, data have shown that this
developing country has experienced a worsening situation an in safety levels since 1990.
That is, fatality rate has increased from 5.5 in 1990 to 7 in 1994. Similarly, the severity
index represented by odds ratio has become 1.02 in 1994 compared with 0.92 in 1990.

Efforts were made in the present study to compare the situation of traffic safety in
KSA with that of other nations using Smeeds formula. The comparison revealed that
KSA stands at a reasonable position. In spite of its relatively high motorization level, this
country has a lower fatality rate than some other countries.

The study has also disclosed that drivers are responsible for nearly eighty percent
of accidents. About 68% of drivers involved in road accidents during the last five years
were aging below than 40 years. The proportion of teenage drivers were found to be
three times that of USA. Approximately one-fifth of drivers involved in accidents were
unlicensed. With respect to accident causes, nearly 70% of accidents were attributed to
speeding in excess of posted speed limit and failure to obey traffic signal indication.

RECOMMENDATIONS
Based on the previous discussions and findings, recommendations of this study
are outlined as follows:

In-depth research should be started soon to investigate the current increasing trend in
both fatality rates and accident severity.

Accident reporting system is a problem in KSA. No detailed information is available

in order to carry out deep research. For example, relationship between accident
occurrences and road/vehicle factors is obstructed by data limitations. The manual
filling system for accident reports creates difficulties in collecting data for analysis
purposes. The data collection system should improved and the need for
computerization is urgently needed.

There should be a special consideration to the problem of illegal driving (driving

without a drivers license). Unlicensed drivers should be strictly enforced to keep
them off the road.
 11

Two driver-related-causes of accidents were found to be predominant, namely,

exceeding speed limit and the failure to stop at the red light. Strict low enforcement
along with educational campaigns must be seriously considered to bring the numbers
of both violations down.

The use of safety belts is relatively very low. Using safety belts should be compulsory.
Together with publicity, enforcement should be effective in this matter.

There should be a permanent road safety committee to supervise the implementation

of any safety programs and to evaluate safety measures and strategies implemented in
the future. The committee should also be responsible for directing research activities
according to the problem needs.

To gain some insight into the size and nature of the road accident problem, KSA can
approach the problem more realistically by establishing a research institute (long-run
strategy) where in-depth studies on human, vehicular and environmental factors
contributing to road accidents can be conducted.

REFERENCES

The General Directorate of Traffic, Ministry of Interior, Riyadh. The Publications of Road Accident
Statistics, for the years 1971-1994.

Ministry of Communications. Roads and Transportation: Facts and Numbers., Saudi Arabia, 1994.

A. Bener and K. S. Jadaan. A Perspective on Road Fatalities in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. Accid. Anal. and
Prev., Vol. 24, No. 2, pp. 143-148, 1992.

World Tables. 3rd edition, World Bank, Washington, D.C., 1984.

National Safety Council. Accident Facts, USA, 1994.

S. E. Asogwa. The Use of the Police for Limited Road Accident Data Collected in Developing Countries.
Accident Analysis & Prevention, Vol. 14, No. 3, pp. 203-208, 1982.

G. D. Jacobs and I. Sayer. Road Accidents in Developing Countries. Accident Analysis & Prevention, Vol.
15, No. 5, pp. 337-353, 1983.

F. A. Gharaybeh. Application of Smeeds Formula to Assess Development of Traffic Safety in Jordan.

Accid. Anal. and Prev., Vol. 26, No. 1, pp. 113-120, 1994.
 12

A. S. Al-Ghamdi, Z. Nemeth, and R. Rogness. Forecasting Traffic Accidents in Saudi Arabia by Using a
Time Series Model. Presented at the 72nd Annual Meeting of TRB Conference, Washington, D.C., 1993.

A. S. Al-Ghamdi. Time Series Forecasts for Traffic Accidents, Injuries and Fatalities in Saudi Arabia.
Accepted for publication at the Journal of King Saud University [Engineering Science], 1994.

A. S. Al-Ghamdi. Analysis of Traffic Accidents at Signalized Intersections in Riyadh. To appear at The

Fourth Saudi Engineering Conference. King Abdulaziz Univ., Jeddah, 1995.

G. Ergun. Condition of Vehicles in Saudi Arabia. Accident Analysis & Prevention, Vol. 19, No. 5, pp.
343-358, 1987.

G. Ergun. Effects of Driver Characteristics on Accident Involvement: A Study in Saudi Arabia. The
Arabian Journal for Science and Engineering, Vol. 9, No. 4, pp. 309-319, Saudi Arabia, 1984.

J. R. Treat. A Study of Precrash Factors Involved in Traffic Accidents. Highway Safety Research Institute,
No. HSRI 10/11, 6/1, Ann Arbor, Michigan, 1980.

A. Mekky. Road Traffic Accidents in Rich Developing Countries: The Case of Libya. Accident Analysis &
Prevention, Vol. 16, No.4, pp. 263-277, 1987.

R. J. Smeed. Some Statistical Aspects of Safety Research. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A
(General), Part I, pp. 1-23, 1949.

R. J. Smeed. Variations in the Pattern of Accident Rates in Different Countries and their Causes. Traffic
Engineering & Control, pp. 364-371, Nov. 1968

A. Agresti. Categorical Data Analysis. New York: Johns Wiley & Sons, 1990.

J. L. Fleiss. Statistical Methods for Rates and Proportions. New York: Johns Wiley & Sons, Second
Edition, 1981.

R. Christensen. Log-Linear Modes. New York: Springer-Verlag, 1990.

Ministry of National Economy and Finance. Population Statistics. Saudi Arabia, 1993.

K. W. Lee. An Analysis of Automobile Accidents in Riyadh. ITE Journal, pp. 35-39, Feb 1986.

Insurance Institute For Highway Safety (IIHS). Status Report. Vol. 26, No. 5, May, 1991.

Insurance Institute For Highway Safety (IIHS). Status Report. Vol. 26, No. 5, October, 1992.

Table 1. Population, registered vehicles, and traffic accident statistics (1971-1994).

Year Population Registered Accidents Injury Fatality

 13

in millions vehicle
1971 6.25 144768 4147 5483 570
1972 6.5 180185 7197 6530 834
1973 6.75 242974 9808 7901 1058
1974 6.8488 355022 10897 8771 1154
1975 7.3754 514361 13475 10532 1594
1976 7.902 774443 15709 11606 1975
1977 8.4287 1112973 15785 11413 2033
1978 8.9553 1432909 18051 14824 2378
1979 9.4819 1723116 17743 16832 2871
1980 10.0085 2069479 18758 16218 2731
1981 10.5352 2467903 17897 15872 2427
1982 11.0618 3018811 21597 18616 2953
1983 11.5884 3569009 24594 21475 3499
1984 12.115 3919871 27348 21850 3338
1985 12.6417 4144245 29052 22630 3276
1986 13.1683 4280986 32092 22602 2703
1987 13.6949 4427991 32024 23723 2814
1988 14.2215 4574244 32584 23059 2585
1989 14.7482 4767922 35744 23278 2647
1990 15.2748 4950466 35799 23526 2697
1991 15.8014 5117441 37127 25516 3232
1992 16.328 5328505 40076 27385 3495
1993 16.8547 5588013 85277 34880 3719
1994 17.3813 5861614 125324 32133 4077

Table 2. Severity and cost of accidents for KSA and USA.

Item
KSA (1993) USA (1992)
Severity of
accident
PDO 82.1% 91.6%
Injury 15.3% 8.0%
Fatal 2.6% 0.313%
Total accidents 85,277 11,900,000
Total cost (billion) $4.96 $407.5
Cost per accident $58,163 $34,202
 14

Table 3 . A typical 2x2 table for categorical data.

Columns Totals
1 2
Rows 1 n11 n12 n1.
2 n21 n22 n2.

Totals n.1 n.2 n..

Table 4. Estimated odds ratio (severity index) and 95% confidence limits.

Year Severity Index 95% Confidence Interval

(Odds Ratio)
Upper Limit Lower Limit
1972 1.026899 0.986298 1.069172
1973 1.07666 1.031543 1.12375
1974 1.057869 1.012483 1.105289
1975 1.216893 1.15927 1.27738
1976 1.368231 1.29852 1.441685
1977 1.432229 1.358496 1.509965
1978 1.289797 1.21951 1.364136
1979 1.371426 1.291116 1.456732
1980 1.35394 1.276176 1.436442
1981 1.229456 1.161951 1.300884
1982 1.275417 1.199911 1.355674
1983 1.310044 1.227062 1.398637
1984 1.228315 1.151979 1.30971
1985 1.16395 1.09216 1.240459
1986 0.961555 0.906573 1.019871
1987 0.953739 0.898349 1.012544
1988 0.901353 0.850692 0.955032
1989 0.914289 0.862431 0.969264
1990 0.921739 0.869082 0.977587
1991 1.018436 0.955968 1.084986
1992 1.026147 0.961194 1.095488
1993 0.857284 0.801639 0.916792
1994 1.020151 0.951371 1.093903

Table 5 . 2x2 for accident victims in 1971 and 1994.

Victims Totals
Fatality Injury
Year 1994 4,077 32,133 36,210
1971 570 4583 5,153
Totals 4,647 36,716 41,363
 15

Table 6. Proportions of three violations committed during the two periods.

Violation 1980-1984 1990-1994

x2 p2
n1 x1 p1 n2
Speed* 157,680 99,679 0.63 353,918 148,219 0.42
Run-red-light** 157,680 17,974 0.11 353,918 54,578 0.15
Unlicensed.* 191,152 65,239 0.34 545,533 73,551 0.14
at 0.05 level. H o * Reject

at 0.05 level. H o ** Accept

Table 7. A comparison for illustration between KSA and USA.

Item KSA* USA**

Type of accident
Collision with-
Other motor vehicles 73.7% 73.1%
Pedestrian 9.5% 1.6%
Fixed object 7.1% 14.7%
Animal 0.9% 3.7%
Noncollision 7.5% 5.6%

Cause of accident
Speed 41.9% 12.2%
Disregarded signal 15.4% 3.5%
Improper turn 7.3% 4.5%
Improper overtaking 10.7% 1.3%
* Source: [The General Directorate of Traffic, 1971-1994.]
** Source: [National Safety Council, Accident Facts, 1994].
 16

4000

3500 Vehicles
Percent increase [1971= reference]

3000

2500

2000

1500

1000
A ccidents

500 Fatalit ies

Injuries
Population
0
1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994
Year

Fig. 1 . Trends in registered vehicles, accidents, injuries, and fatalities.

400

Acc/person
350
Percent change (1971= reference)

300

250
Fat/person
Inj/person
200

150

100

50
Inj/veh Acc/veh
Fat/veh
0
1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

Year

Fig. 2. Trends in accident rates per vehicle and per person in KSA (1971-1994)
 F\V x 10,000

0
10
20
30
40
50
60

0
Fatality per 10,000 vehicles

0
5
10
15
20
25

NORWAY

50
UK
AUSTRALIA
SWEDEN
NETHERLANDS
CANADA
SWITZERLAND
JAPAN
USA

100
FINLAND
GERMANY
ITALY
AUSTRIA
DENMARK
FRANCE
NEW ZELAND

150
BAHRAIN

F\V = 0.0003* (V\P)* * -0.795

BELGIUM
IRLAND
ARGENTINA
SPAIN
SINGAPORE
Country

V/P x 1000
BULGARIA
BULAGARIA

200
HONG KONG
KSA
CHILE
GREECE
KUWAIT
POLAND
POLAND

250
HUNGRY

Actual
PORTUGAL
MEXICO
JORDAN
THAILAND
BRAZIL
VENEZUELA

300
EGYPT
S KOREA
Fig.3. Death rates for various developing and developed countries.

350

Fig.4. Actual and fitted values for relationship between death rate and motorization.
17
 18

60

50

40
F\V x 10,000

F\V = 0.0003*(V\P)**-0.795 Actual

30

20

10

0
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995

YEAR

Fig.5 . Actual and fitted values for death rates over years.

60

50

Developing countries
40
F\V x 10,000

30

KSA
20

Developed countries
10

0
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350

V\P x 1000

Fig.6. Smeeds fitted curves for KSA, developing and developed countries.
 19

60
F\V = 0.00021 x (V\P)**-0.72

50
F\V = 0.00039 x (V\P)**-0.64

40
F\V x 10,000

30
S. Kor.

Eg.
20 Ven.
Braz.
Mex.
Jord. KSA Kuw.
10 Gr.
Sing.
Bah. UK & Sw. USA

0
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
V\P x 1000

Fig.7. KSA and other countries with the fitted curves for developing and developed

1.6

1.4 Upper

1.2

1
Odds ratio

0.8

0.6
Low er
Est im at ed

0.4

0.2

0
1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

Year

Fig.8. Accident severity represented by odds ratio.

 20

100
100
80

Percent of drivers
80

Percent of drivers
60 60

40 40

20 20

0 0
Saudi O the r <18 >=18 >=30 >=40 >=50
Nation ality Age

(b) Nationality factor. (a) Age factor.

100 100
80 80
Percent of drivers

Percent of drivers
60 60
40 40

20 20

0 0
Lite rate Illite rate Marrie d Not marrie d
Education status Marital status

(d) Education factor. (c) Marital-status factor.

100

80
Percent of drivers

60

40

20

0
Ye s No
Licie n ce status

(e) Licensee status.

Fig.9. Distributions of accidents by variables related to the driver.

 21

20

Percent of accidents
100
15

Percent of accidents
80
10 60

5 40

20
0
0
Day Night
Day Tim e of accide nt

(b) Distribution by day. (a) Time occurrence factor.

100
Percent of accidents

80

60

40

20

0
Urban Rural
Location of accide nt

(c) Location factor.

100 100
90
Percent of accidents
Percent of accidents

80 80
70
60 60
50
40 40
30
20 20
10
0 0
Turnover
U-Turn

Off-road
Other
Animal
Speed

Fixed object
Other
Alcohol
Parking

Pedestrian
Overtaking

Other vehicle
Run red light

Cause of accident Type of accide nt

(e) Accident-cause factor. (d) Accident-type factor.

Fig.10. Accident characteristics (1990-1994).

 22

70

60

50
Percent of drivers

40

30

20

10

0
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994
Year

Fig.11. Percentages of unlicensed drivers involved in road accidents (1990-1994).

 23

ROAD ACCIDENTS IN SAUDI ARABIA: A COMPARATIVE AND

ANALYTICAL STUDY

Ali Saeed Al-Ghamdi

King Saud University, College of Engineering, P. O. Box 800, Riyadh 11421, Saudi Arabia

ABSTRACT

The main goal of this study is to discusses the magnitude of traffic accidents in the
Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) over the last fifteen years and to compare the
situation of traffic safety with that of other countries. This developing country has
experienced a rapid economic growth resulting in an enormous increase in the
motorization rate (vehicle per 1000 population) associated with rapidly expanding
road construction. As a result, traffic accidents have become a serious problem
facing the country. During the period from 1971 to 1994, the numbers of traffic
accidents, injuries , and fatalities have increased by 30 times, 6 times, and 7 times,
respectively. This study showed that both fatality rate and accident severity have
increased and the need for improvement is urgently needed. Using odds ratio,
accident severity has declined over the past 25 years. Despite the overall decreasing
trend in both fatality rates and severity, data have shown that this developing
country has experienced a worsening situation in safety levels since 1990. That is,
fatality rate has increased from 5.5 in 1990 to 7 in 1994. Similarly, the severity index
represented by odds ratio has become 1.02 in 1994 compared with 0.92 in 1990. In
addition, efforts were made in the present study to compare the situation of traffic
safety in KSA with that of other nations using Smeeds formula. The comparison
revealed that KSA stands at a reasonable position. In spite of its relatively high
motorization level, this country has a lower fatality rate than some other countries.
Based on the findings, the study recommends short-run and long-run strategies in
order to improve traffic safety in this developing country.
 24

ROAD ACCIDENTS IN SAUDI ARABIA: A COMPARATIVE AND

ANALYTICAL STUDY

Ali Saeed Al-Ghamdi

King Saud University, College of Engineering, P. O. Box 800, Riyadh 11421, Saudi Arabia

Registered Vhicles from 144,768 in 1970 to

5,861,614 in 1994 (40-fold).
Paved oad length from 8500 km in 1970 to 43,003
km in 1992 (5-fold).
From 1970 to 1994:

Traffic accidents have increased 30 times.

Injuries have increased 6 times.
Fatalities have increased 7 times.
 25

Using Smeeds A
pproach for Compariosn:

KSA stands at a reasonable position.

Unlicience Drivers
19% in 1994.
 26

Discussions and Results

KSA stands at a reasonable position.

80% of accidents due to human error.
Speeding is the major cause.
Computerized Data Collection System!!
Education and Public Campaigns!!
Enforcement!!
 27

Table 1. Population, registered vehicles, and traffic accident statistics (1971-1994).

Year Population Registered Accidents Injury Fatality

in millions vehicle
1971 6.25 144768 4147 5483 570
1972 6.5 180185 7197 6530 834
1973 6.75 242974 9808 7901 1058
1974 6.8488 355022 10897 8771 1154
1975 7.3754 514361 13475 10532 1594
1976 7.902 774443 15709 11606 1975
1977 8.4287 1112973 15785 11413 2033
1978 8.9553 1432909 18051 14824 2378
1979 9.4819 1723116 17743 16832 2871
1980 10.0085 2069479 18758 16218 2731
1981 10.5352 2467903 17897 15872 2427
1982 11.0618 3018811 21597 18616 2953
1983 11.5884 3569009 24594 21475 3499
1984 12.115 3919871 27348 21850 3338
1985 12.6417 4144245 29052 22630 3276
1986 13.1683 4280986 32092 22602 2703
1987 13.6949 4427991 32024 23723 2814
1988 14.2215 4574244 32584 23059 2585
1989 14.7482 4767922 35744 23278 2647
1990 15.2748 4950466 35799 23526 2697
1991 15.8014 5117441 37127 25516 3232
1992 16.328 5328505 40076 27385 3495
1993 16.8547 5588013 85277 34880 3719
1994 17.3813 5861614 125324 32133 4077

Table 2. Severity and cost of accidents for KSA and USA.

Item
KSA (1993) USA (1992)
Severity of
accident
PDO 82.1% 91.6%
Injury 15.3% 8.0%
Fatal 2.6% 0.313%
Total accidents 85,277 11,900,000
Total cost (billion) $4.96 $407.5
Cost per accident $58,163 $34,202
 28

Table 4. Estimated odds ratio (severity index) and 95% confidence limits.

Year Severity Index 95% Confidence Interval

(Odds Ratio)
Upper Limit Lower Limit
1972 1.026899 0.986298 1.069172
1973 1.07666 1.031543 1.12375
1974 1.057869 1.012483 1.105289
1975 1.216893 1.15927 1.27738
1976 1.368231 1.29852 1.441685
1977 1.432229 1.358496 1.509965
1978 1.289797 1.21951 1.364136
1979 1.371426 1.291116 1.456732
1980 1.35394 1.276176 1.436442
1981 1.229456 1.161951 1.300884
1982 1.275417 1.199911 1.355674
1983 1.310044 1.227062 1.398637
1984 1.228315 1.151979 1.30971
1985 1.16395 1.09216 1.240459
1986 0.961555 0.906573 1.019871
1987 0.953739 0.898349 1.012544
1988 0.901353 0.850692 0.955032
1989 0.914289 0.862431 0.969264
1990 0.921739 0.869082 0.977587
1991 1.018436 0.955968 1.084986
1992 1.026147 0.961194 1.095488
1993 0.857284 0.801639 0.916792
1994 1.020151 0.951371 1.093903

Table 5 . 2x2 for accident victims in 1971 and 1994.

Victims Totals
Fatality Injury
Year 1994 4,077 32,133 36,210
1971 570 4583 5,153
Totals 4,647 36,716 41,363
 29

Table 6. Proportions of three violations committed during the two periods.

Violation 1980-1984 1990-1994

x2 p2
n1 x1 p1 n2
Speed* 157,680 99,679 0.63 353,918 148,219 0.42
Run-red-light** 157,680 17,974 0.11 353,918 54,578 0.15
Unlicensed.* 191,152 65,239 0.34 545,533 73,551 0.14
at 0.05 level. H o * Reject

at 0.05 level. H o ** Accept

Table 7. A comparison for illustration between KSA and USA.

Item KSA* USA**

Type of accident
Collision with-
Other motor vehicles 73.7% 73.1%
Pedestrian 9.5% 1.6%
Fixed object 7.1% 14.7%
Animal 0.9% 3.7%
Noncollision 7.5% 5.6%

Cause of accident
Speed 41.9% 12.2%
Disregarded signal 15.4% 3.5%
Improper turn 7.3% 4.5%
Improper overtaking 10.7% 1.3%
* Source: [The General Directorate of Traffic, 1971-1994.]
** Source: [National Safety Council, Accident Facts, 1994].
 30

4000

3500 Vehicles
Percent increase [1971= reference]

3000

2500

2000

1500

1000
A ccidents

500 Fatalit ies

Injuries
Population
0
1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994
Year

Fig. 1 . Trends in registered vehicles, accidents, injuries, and fatalities.

400

Acc/person
350
Percent change (1971= reference)

300

250
Fat/person
Inj/person
200

150

100

50
Inj/veh Acc/veh
Fat/veh
0
1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

Year

Fig. 2. Trends in accident rates per vehicle and per person in KSA (1971-1994)
 F\V x 10,000

0
10
20
30
40
50
60

0
Fatality per 10,000 vehicles

0
5
10
15
20
25

NORWAY

50
UK
AUSTRALIA
SWEDEN
NETHERLANDS
CANADA
SWITZERLAND
JAPAN
USA

100
FINLAND
GERMANY
ITALY
AUSTRIA
DENMARK
FRANCE
NEW ZELAND

150
BAHRAIN

F\V = 0.0003* (V\P)* * -0.795

BELGIUM
IRLAND
ARGENTINA
SPAIN
SINGAPORE
Country

V/P x 1000
BULGARIA
BULAGARIA

200
HONG KONG
KSA
CHILE
GREECE
KUWAIT
POLAND
POLAND

250
HUNGRY

Actual
PORTUGAL
MEXICO
JORDAN
THAILAND
BRAZIL
VENEZUELA

300
EGYPT
S KOREA
Fig.3. Death rates for various developing and developed countries.

350

Fig.4. Actual and fitted values for relationship between death rate and motorization.
31
 32

60

50

40
F\V x 10,000

F\V = 0.0003*(V\P)**-0.795 Actual

30

20

10

0
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995

YEAR

Fig.5 . Actual and fitted values for death rates over years.

60

50

Developing countries
40
F\V x 10,000

30

KSA
20

Developed countries
10

0
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350

V\P x 1000

Fig.6. Smeeds fitted curves for KSA, developing and developed countries.
 33

60
F\V = 0.00021 x (V\P)**-0.72

50
F\V = 0.00039 x (V\P)**-0.64

40
F\V x 10,000

30
S. Kor.

Eg.
20 Ven.
Braz.
Mex.
Jord. KSA Kuw.
10 Gr.
Sing.
Bah. UK & Sw. USA

0
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
V\P x 1000

Fig.7. KSA and other countries with the fitted curves for developing and developed

1.6

1.4 Upper

1.2

1
Odds ratio

0.8

0.6
Low er
Est im at ed

0.4

0.2

0
1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

Year

Fig.8. Accident severity represented by odds ratio.

 34

100
100
80

Percent of drivers
80

Percent of drivers
60 60

40 40

20 20

0 0
Saudi O the r <18 >=18 >=30 >=40 >=50
Nation ality Age

(b) Nationality factor. (a) Age factor.

100 100
80 80
Percent of drivers

Percent of drivers
60 60
40 40

20 20

0 0
Lite rate Illite rate Marrie d Not marrie d
Education status Marital status

(d) Education factor. (c) Marital-status factor.

100

80
Percent of drivers

60

40

20

0
Ye s No
Licie n ce status

(e) Licensee status.

Fig.9. Distributions of accidents by variables related to the driver.

 35

20

Percent of accidents
100
15

Percent of accidents
80
10 60

5 40

20
0
0
Day Night
Day Tim e of accide nt

(b) Distribution by day. (a) Time occurrence factor.

100
Percent of accidents

80

60

40

20

0
Urban Rural
Location of accide nt

(c) Location factor.

100 100
90
Percent of accidents
Percent of accidents

80 80
70
60 60
50
40 40
30
20 20
10
0 0
Turnover
U-Turn

Off-road
Other
Animal
Speed

Fixed object
Other
Alcohol
Parking

Pedestrian
Overtaking

Other vehicle
Run red light

Cause of accident Type of accide nt

(e) Accident-cause factor. (d) Accident-type factor.

Fig.10. Accident characteristics (1990-1994).

 36

70

60

50
Percent of drivers

40

30

20

10

0
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994
Year

Fig.11. Percentages of unlicensed drivers involved in road accidents (1990-1994).