CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY ,INDEPENDENT EVENTS, AND BAYES THEOREM

1. In the table below, 400 individuals are classified according to whether of not they are vaccinated against
influenza and whether or not they were attacked by influenza.
Vaccinated Not Vaccinated
Attacked 60 85
Not Attacked 190 65
If a person is chosen at random, find the probability that
A. The person was vaccinated and attacked
B. The person was attacked, given the person was vaccinated
C. The person was not attacked, given the person was vaccinated
2. The probability that an adult male is over 6ft tall is 0.2. given that he is over 6ft tall, the probability that he
weighs less than 150lbs is 0.2. Find the probability that a randomly chosen man is taller than 6ft and will weigh
less than 150 lbs.
3. The probability that it will rain is 0.3. given that it rains, the probability is 0.4 that the plane will take off on time,
and given that it does not rain, the probability is 0.9 that the plane will take off on time. Find the probability that
a. It will rain and the plane will take off on time
b. It will not rain and the plane will take off on time
c. The plane will take off on time
4. The probability that a student studies is 0.7. given that he studies, the probability that he will pass a course is
0.8. given that he does not study, the probability that he will pass a course is 0.4. find the probability that
a. He will study and pass the course
b. He will not study and will pass the course
c. He will pass the course
5. Jeremy wants to buy a special ink for his printer. The probability that the university bookstore carries it is 0.4.
Assuming that the two stores carries the stock item independently, find the probability that neither store carries
the item
6. The probability that a plane arrives at the airport before 10AM is 0.7. The probability that a passenger leaving
from a city by a bus arrive at the airport by 10AM is 0.6. find the probability that
a. The plane and the passenger arrive by 10AM
b. The plane arrives by 10AM and the passenger arrives after 10AM
7. A genetic population has two types, type A and type a. it is known that 60% of the alleles in the population are
of type A. if two alleles are picked at random, find the probability that
a. Both alleles are of type A
b. One allele is of type A and the other is of type a
c. Both alleles are of type a
8. It is known from past experience that the probability that a person has cancer is 0.02 and the probability that a
person has heart disease is 0.1. If we assume that the incidence of cancer and heart disease are independent,
find the probability that
a. A person has both ailments
b. A person does not have both ailments
c. A person does not have either ailment
9. Stores A, B, and C have 50,75, and 100 employees and, respectively, 50,60, and 70 percent of those are women.
Resignations are equally likely among all employees regardless of gender. One employee resigns, and this is a
woman. What is the probability that she works in store C?
10. Three cooks A, B, and C bake a special kind of cake. And with respective probabilities 0.02, 0.03, and 0.05 it fails
to rise. In the restaurant where they work, A bakes 50% of these cakes, B bakes 30%,a nd C bakes 20%. What
proportion of failures is caused by A?