Fresh Water Depletion Draft

Fresh water is one of the most important (if not the most important) resource on the
planet. Everything alive on the planet relies on water, and without the vital resource the
world and all its inhabitants would perish. Although earth is referred to as the “Blue
Planet” due to it’s colouration from its oceans, only 3% of water on earth is drinkable. Of
that 3%, two thirds of it is frozen in glaciers and icebergs, a quarter of is underwater and
only the remainder 8% is on the surface. This means only 0.005% of the water is easily
accessible and drinkable. It is often said that water has never been lost, we are drinking
water that dinosaurs millions of years ago were drinking. Although water is renewable it
doesn’t guarantee that the water will come back in our lakes and rivers. This precious
amount of fresh water could likely end up gone in our rivers and lakes. With the
population set to surge in the next forty years, combined with the threat of climate change;
the risk of our fresh water bodies drying up is very much possible.

So is it possible? Will fresh water bodies be depleted by 2050? It’s a very relevant
question; running out of the resource could create devastating effects. It could create war,
disturb the ecosystem, cause extinction to many species on a world wide scale, cause loss
of human lives and ultimately cause Earth to become desolate, barren and lifeless planet.
To see whether this could happen in just forty years, we must look at a wide variety of
things. Population increase, average water usage per person and household, water reserves
remaining, government plans and intervention and the effect of climate change in the
foreseeable future. With the United Nations estimating that in 2050, two billion people
will lack sufficient water resources, the threat of running out of fresh water is very much
real. There are many variables, with many different possible outcomes; but to test this
hypothesis we will have to take chances and assume a few things through logic. So could
it happen, have humans exerted too much pressure on the Earth, so that it will no longer
be sustainable for life?

First we must look at how much water the average person uses, and how much water is
used a day. It is estimated that the world has about (6.3 x 10^18) amounts left of easily
accessible fresh water, with a total of (1.26 x 10^21) litres of water on the planet. While
this may seem like a lot (and it is a monstrous amount), you must realise that there are
close to around 6.8 billion humans on this planet. There are also animals and plants to
take into account for organism water usage. In some areas of the world fresh water body
depletion has already to start take place. It has been estimated that the average person uses
about 450 litres of water a day (drinking, eating, shower, washing) , however it must be
stated that this doesn’t account for people in “water starved” countries. If we balance this,
the average comes to about 70 – 150 litres per person. If we calculate this, then the world
uses around 7.48 x 10^11 litres of water a day. If we assume that it doesn’t rain and only
humans use water, then fresh water would run out in 8,422, 459 years, a far fetch from the
estimated forty years that the hypothesis presents. However this is a very sketchy
conclusion, because this doesn’t include animals, plants, and machines and assumes that it
won’t rain during that period. Most importantly it doesn’t include the factor of
overpopulation and climate change.
It has been researched the amount an average (doesn’t mean most Americans use this
much, it’s just a mean) American person uses in water. The total includes the use of
machine, fuel and use of products that require water in their production process, the
amount used comes to a grand total of 4500 L used a day. If we compare this to the world
(average it in comparison to condition of the country) the average may come to around
500L used a day. It is impossible to measure the amount of water and consumed by
animals and plants, so it is usually assumed that animals don’t use much water at all (Most
animals only drink water in order to survive). The following predictions will not include
the amount that animals themselves as it is impossible to calculate. The next variable is
rain. Water is never lost, rather it changes in state. Most of the time water will become
water vapour due to heat, and will rise into the sky. Once the vapour reaches a certain
height it will condense as frozen liquid and form together to become a cloud. Eventually
the cloud will become dense enough and will soon rain. The cloud releases the water back
to earth as rain. Therefore water is never lost. However rain patterns have been changing
in the last century due to climate change. The global average precipitation is 990mm,
however it hasn’t been constant with many countries getting virtually no water all year (eg
Atacama desert 0.04mm) while others are constantly flooded (eg. Mawsynram 12m.) It
appears that the in northern parts of the continent have become drier while the southern
hemisphere is slowly becoming wetter. Many major fresh water bodies are in the northern
hemisphere, including the Nile and Mekong River and 11 of the 12 biggest lakes in the
world are situated in the northern hemisphere. Declining rainfall amounts will put a lot of
stress on these fresh water bodies. The strain put on the fresh water bodies could
definitely increase by more than ten fold. If not kept in check, the usage of amount of
water in these major fresh water bodies will decline rapidly. Therefore the possibility
fresh water bodies disappearing, especially in the northern hemisphere is definitely
plausible.

The two big variables in the case would definitely be overpopulation and climate change.
Estimates point that by 2050 the global population could very well reach more than 10
billion. However the ratio of water usage will increase more than the ratio of population
increase. It is most likely that the usage of water per day would increase by five hundred
percent then it would today, therefore the risk of population increase is a definite risk. It’s
not only the direct actual usage of the increased population that will cause the increase
strain on fresh water bodies, but the clearing of land will be definite for the new
population. The clearing of land has been known to create erosion and increase salinity
levels in water, due to the removal of trees and plants. The possible increase of salinity
may cause nearby rivers to be rendered useless for the use of fresh and effectively cause
the river to become “obsolete.” The other big variable is Climate Change. Climate Change
has both positive and negatives effects on the fresh water supplies. The most obvious
affect of Climate Change is Global Warming. Global Warming will severely affect fresh
water supplies as the melting of the ice caps will raise sea water levels, which will
contaminate the fresh water resources that are close to the coast. Eventually the sea water
will seep into rivers making the water undrinkable without the help of a desalinating
device. As noted before rainfall changes have occurred due to climate change, and with
the planet rising in temperature, evaporation is bound to increase therefore increasing
rainfall in particular areas of the world. However the rate of drought and flood will
dramatically increase in the northern hemisphere. Ultimately the effect of global warming
will cause many fresh water resources to be rendered useless from the contamination by
rising sea water levels. It appears as if even though it appears that fresh water resources
will not dry up by 2050, they will be rendered useless as fresh water supplies.