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DG AGRI DASHBOARD : POULTRY MEAT Last update: 29.06.

2017

EVOLUTION SINCE BROILER EU WEEKLY AVERAGE PRICE EVOLUTION


Forecast and Production of poultry meat
EU
25 195

Overall Poultry Meat


Duck
WEEK PRICES last WEEK last MONTH last YEAR
Turkey
3%
190 15%
Prices

/ 100 kg
185
184.51
180

BROILER 184.51 - 0.1% + 2.8% + 1.2%


175
Broiler
82%
Avg. 2012-16 2016 2017
/100 kg carcase weight 170
2017 - Consumption per capita in retail => 23.81 (kg)

E U, U S A & B R A Z I L B R O I L E R PRICES EUR / USD EUR / BRL


1.40 4.50 Placings of broiler chicks Forecast and Production of broiler
225 ( 1 000 pieces ) ( Tonnes )
World Quotations

600000
200 1000000

595 296
586 725
184.51

Placings Broiler

575 570
573 668

571 098
571 174
1.30

564 904
4.00

560 533

559 806
556 187

556 253
555 595
555 994
555 697
900000

555 567
544 954
540 814
500000

537 907

537 869
536 621
530 789

925 405
913 055
523 388
EU

903 673.02
517 271

894 963
892 745

887 776.75

886 148
879 181.46
877 730.42
502 880

498 983

868 897
175

870 104.06

869 495.58
866 840
800000

868 105.67
/ 100 kg

864 861.25

856 230.06
849 915

842 885
839 617
835 935
834 816

822 406.11
470 753

809 878.57

794 510
786 559
212.66

767 883
400000 700000

737 483.60
1.20 3.50
150 600000
US

628 493
300000 500000
125
85.50 1.10 3.00 400000
200000
BR 300000
100
100000 200000
1.00 2.50
75 100000
Jan

Jan
Apr

Apr
Jul

Jul

Jul
Oct

Oct

Oct

Jan
Apr

Jan
Apr
Jul

Jul

Jul
Oct

Oct

Oct
| 15 | 16 | 17 |

0
2016 2017
0 0
2016 2017 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2015 2016 2017 2015 2016 2017
EU Main Producers EU Poultry meat production
World Main Exporters World Main Importers
( 1000 Tonnes product weight) ( Forecasts 2017 and 2018 based on estimations )
(88% of Total Exports) (69% of Total Imports)
20 000 125% 1 600 600

PL FR 104% 104% 104% 104% 104% 104% 104% 104%


100% 101% 103% 1 400 2016= 4 142 2016 = 2 018
2 709 1 838 500

1 415
2017= 4 027

1 363
16 000 100% 2017 = 2 009

506
Production

World Trade
18% 12% 1 200

483
In 1000 tonnes PW
DE
1000 Tonnes

In 1000 tonnes PW
1 186
400

1 126
14 596
14 482
14 384
1 789 1 000

315
13 989
13 893

308
13 792
13 775
13 284
13 261

12 000 75%

279
12 783

12 751
12%

271
12 694
12 360

12 282
12 229
12 121

800 300
11 901
11 767
11 656
11 588

226
11 354
11 330

224
469

457
600

155
8 000 50%

395
Other UK 200

141
336
4 207 1 699 400

241
221
28% 11% 100
4 000 25% 200
ES
6 MSs = IT 1 495 0 0
Year 2017 2016 2017
72% of total 1 390 10% 0 0% 2016 2017
Total = 5 127 Brazil United States EU Hong Kong & China Thailand
production 9% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017f 2018f Hong Kong + China Japan EU Mexico China
(+5.6% over 2016)
Source: GTA
EU Production EU Consumption Self-sufficiency (in %) Source: GTA

EU Exports evolution EU-28 EXPORTS EU Imports evolution EU-28 IMPORTS


( 1000 Tonnes carcase weight) ( Top Destinations in 2015 / 16 ) ( 1000 Tonnes carcase weight) ( Main Partners in 2015 / 16 )
1 750 1000
POULTRY MEAT (Tonnes carcase weight) POULTRY Meat (Tonnes carcase weight)
Period: Jan-Apr Period: Jan-Apr
1 616

1 500

900
887

875
2016 2017 % Chg
1 504

855
800
1 489

846
2016 2017 % Chg
821
1 431

1 428

807
1 250 EU-28 504 237 490 196 - 2.8 % EU-28 299 671 283 678 - 5.3%
1 265
Trade

Hong Kong 40 779 53 910 + 32.2 % 600 Brazil 168 328 157 518 - 6.4 %
1 000
Ukraine 30 150 44 279 + 46.9 % Thailand 99 034 88 136 - 11.0 %

300
1 016

284
504

490

750 Saudi Arabia 40 568 37 809 - 6.8 % Ukraine 11 149 16 988 + 52.4 %
400
Benin 44 417 36 727 - 17.3 % Chile 11 473 8 518 - 25.8 %
500 South Africa 82 916 34 602 - 58.3 % China 5 606 6 041 + 7.8 %
250
Ghana 23 364 34 257 + 46.6 % 200
Argentina 1 934 2 358 + 21.9 %
Congo (Dem. Rep.) 7 882 21 330 +++ South Africa 58 1 938 +++
0 Other 234 160 227 281 - 2.9 % 0 Other 2 090 2 181 + 4.4 %
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Jan-Apr Jan-Apr 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Jan-Apr Jan-Apr
Source: Eurostat 16 17 16 17
Source: Eurostat

Sources : European Commission (DG ESTAT, DG AGRI), MSs notifications (Regulation (EC) 1249/2008 and Regulation (EC) 617/2008), GTA,
EVOLUTION SINCE
EU
WEEK PRICES 25 last WEEK last MONTH last YEAR
Prices

/ 100 kg
BROILER 184.51 - 0.1% + 2.8% + 1.2%

/100 kg carcase weight

Source: MSs notifications (Regulation (EC) 1249/2008)


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BROILER EU WEEKLY AVERAGE PRICE EVOLUTION
195

190
/ 100 kg

185
184.51
180

175

Avg. 2012-16 2016 2017


170

Source: MSs notifications (Regulation (EC) 1249/2008)


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Forecast and Production of poultry meat
Duck
Turkey
3%
15%

Broiler
82%

2017 - Consumption per capita in retail => 23.81 (kg)

Source: MSs notifications Expert group

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E U, U S A & B R A Z I L BROILER PRICES

225

200 184.51
EU
175
/ 100 kg

212.66
150
US

125
85.50
BR
100

75
| 15 | 16 | 17 |

Sources : EU = weighted average of MS prices Broiler 65%


US = weekly USDA prices Fresh chicken grade A ,Chicago
BR = average of prices in main producing states (Aveworld.com.br)

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EUR / USD EUR / BRL
1.40 4.50

EUR / USD

1.30 1.30
4.00 EUR / BRL

4.50

1.20

4.00
1.20 3.50
1.10
3.50

1.00
3.00
Sept.

Sept.
June

June
Mar.

Mar.
Dec.

Dec.

1.10

Sept.

Sept.
June

June
Mar.

Mar.
Dec.

Dec.
3.00

1.00
l tc n r l tc n r l tc 2.50
Ju aJ p Ju aJ p Ju

Jan

Jan
Apr

Apr
Jul

Jul

Jul
Oct

Oct

Oct
O A O A O
2016 2017
2016 2017

Source: ECB (European Central Bank)


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Placings of broiler chicks
( 1 000 pieces )
600000

595 296
582 711

575 570
573 668

571 028
571 174
564 904
560 532

559 815
556 187

556 170
555 363
555 994
555 697

555 567
544 874
540 814
500000
537 907

537 869
536 621
523 388
517 271

502 880

498 901
470 753
400000

300000

200000

100000
0

0
0

0
0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Source: Reg. (EC) 617/2008 2015 2016 2017


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Previous
0
1000000

100000
700000

200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
800000
900000

Page
628 493
737 483.60

Jan

Next
767 774
786 559
864 861.25

Feb
892 695
834 816

Source: Reg. (EC) 617/2008


809 878.57

Mar
907 141
794 510
822 406.11

Apr
868 897
877 729.46

May

2015
894 963
903 673.02

Jun
0
( Tonnes )

866 840
Jul
887 776.75
2016
0
849 915
870 104.06
Aug

0
2017

925 405
867 729.32
Sep

0
Forecast and Production of broiler

839 617
879 130.82
Oct

0
842 885
856 113.30
Nov

0
886 148
869 377.86
Dec

0
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EU Main Producers
( 1000 Tonnes product weight)

PL FR
2 709 1 838
18% 12%
DE
1 789
12%

Other UK
4 207 1 699
28% 11%
ES
IT 1 495 Year 2017
1 390 10% Total = 5 127
9% (+5.6% over
2016)

Source: Eurostat
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EU Poultry meat production
( Forecasts 2017 and 2018 based on estimations )
20 000 125%

103% 104% 104% 104% 104% 104% 104% 104% 104%


100% 101%
16 000 100%
1000 Tonnes

14 596
14 482
14 384

13 989
13 893
13 792
13 775
13 284
13 261
12 000 75%

12 783

12 751
12 694
12 360

12 282
12 229
12 121

11 901
11 767
11 656
11 588
11 354
11 330

8 000 50%

4 000 25%

0 0%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017f 2018f
EU Production EU Consumption Self-sufficiency (in %)
Source: Eurostat

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World Main Exporters
(88% of Total Exports)
1 600

1 400 2016= 4 142


1 415

2017= 4 027

1 363
1 200
In 1000 tonnes PW

1 186
1 126
1 000

800 469

600

457

395
400
336

241
221
200

0
2016 2017
Brazil United States EU Hong Kong & China Thailand
Source : GTA

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World Main Importers
(69% of Total Imports)
600

500 2016 = 2 018


2017 = 2 009

506
483
In 1000 tonnes PW

400 315

308
279

271
300

226
224

155
200

141
100

0
2016 2017
Hong Kong + China Japan EU Mexico China
Source : GTA

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EU Exports evolution
( 1000 Tonnes carcase weight)
1 750

1 616
1 500

1 504

1 489
1 431

1 428
1 250
1 265

1 000
1 016

504

490
750

500

250

0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Jan-Apr Jan-Apr
16 17
Source: Eurostat
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EU-28 EXPORTS
( Top Destinations in 2016 /17 )

EU-28 Exports (Top destinations in 2016/17)


POULTRY MEAT (Tonnes carcase weight)
Period: Jan-Apr
2016 2017 % Chg
EU-28 504 237 490 196 - 2.8 %
Hong Kong 40 779 53 910 + 32.2 %
Ukraine 30 150 44 279 + 46.9 %
Saudi Arabia 40 568 37 809 - 6.8 %
Benin 44 417 36 727 - 17.3 %
South Africa 82 916 34 602 - 58.3 %
Ghana 23 364 34 257 + 46.6 %
Congo (Dem. Rep.) 7 882 21 330 +++
Other 234 160 227 281 - 2.9 %

Source: Eurostat

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EU Imports evolution
( 1000 Tonnes carcase weight)
1000

900
887

875
800
855

846
821

807
600

300

284
400

200

0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Jan-Apr Jan-Apr
Source: Eurostat 16 17
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EU-28 IMPORTS
( Main Partners in 2016 /17 )

EU-28 Imports (Main partners in 2016/17)


POULTRY Meat (Tonnes carcase weight)
Period: Jan-Apr
2016 2017 % Chg
EU-28 299 671 283 678 - 5.3%
Brazil 168 328 157 518 - 6.4 %
Thailand 99 034 88 136 - 11.0 %
Ukraine 11 149 16 988 + 52.4 %
Chile 11 473 8 518 - 25.8 %
China 5 606 6 041 + 7.8 %
Argentina 1 934 2 358 + 21.9 %
South Africa 58 1 938 +++
Other 2 090 2 181 + 4.4 %

Source: Eurostat

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