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7.

PROBABILITY
7.1.1 Sample Space and Events
a. Experiment is an activity that we carry out to observe a result.
b. Outcome is the result of an experiment that we observed.
c. Sample space is set of all the possible outcomes (or results) in an experiment
d. The sample space is denoted by the letter S.
e. Event is the set of all the possible outcomes (or results) in the sample space that we wish to get.
f. An event can be denoted by any capital letters except S .
g. n(S) denotes the number of possible outcomes in the sample space.
h n(A) denotes the number of possible outcomes in the event A.
Task A : Determine the number of possible outcomes in the sample space and the event by listing the outcomes.
1. An experiment is conducted by rolling a fair dice 2. In an experiment where a fair coin is tossed twice,
once. If A is the event of getting an even score, HT represents an outcome where the first toss
(a) express, in set notation, results in a head and the second toss results in a
(i) the sample space, tail. If B is the event of obtaining at least one
(ii) the event A, tail,
(b) determine the number of possible outcomes in (a) express, in set notation,
(i) the sample space, (i) the sample space,
(ii) the event A. (ii) the event B,
(b) determine the number of possible outcomes in
Answer : (a)(i) S = { } (i) the sample space,
(ii) the event B.
(a)(ii) A = { }
Answer : (a)(i) S =
(b)(i) n(S) =
(a)(ii) B =
(b)(ii) n(A) =
(b)(i) n(S) =
(b)(ii) n(B) =

3. A card is picked randomly from the following cards. 4. In an experiment, two numbers are randomly
chosen, the first from set A = {3 , 5 , 6] and the
H E B A T second from set B = { 2 , 4 , 8}. If D is the event of
getting a total score at least 10,
If C is the event of obtaining vowel, (a) express, in set notation, [Note : (x , y)
(a) express, in set notation, represents an outcome where x A and y B]
(i) the sample space, (i) the sample space,
(ii) the event C, (ii) the event D,
(b) determine the number of possible outcomes in (b) determine the number of possible outcomes in
(i) the sample space, (i) the sample space,
(ii) the event C. (ii) the event D.

Answer : (a)(i) S= Answer : (a)(i) S =


(a)(ii) C = (a)(ii) D =
(b)(i) n(S) = (b)(i) n(S) =
(b)(ii) n(C) = (b)(ii) n(D) =
Answers: 1. S = {1,2,3,4,5,6}; A = {2,4,6}; n(S) = 6; n(A) = 3 2. S = {HH,HT,TH,TT}; B = {HT,TH,TT}; n(S) = 4; n(B) = 3
2. S = {H,E,B,A,T}; C = {E,A}; n(S) = 5; n(C) = 2 4. S = {(3,2),(3,4),(3,8),(5,2),(5,4),(5,8),(6,2),(6,4),(6,8)} ; n(S) = 9
D = {(3,8),(5,8),(6,4),(6,8)} n(D) = 4

Probability 1
Task B: Determine the number possible outcomes in the sample space and the event without listing the outcomes.
1. A box contains 3 black balls, 2 2. A box contains cards of which 3. The table shows a set of
green balls and 5 red balls. A each card is written with an numbers. A number is chosen at
ball is drawn at random from alphabet from the word random from the set.
the box. If A represents the TAMBAHAN. A card is 10 11 15
event not getting the black drawn at random from the box. 17 22 19
balls, determine If B represents the event of 16 25 18
(a) n(S), obtaining vowel card, determine If C represents the event of
(b) n(A). (a) n(S), choosing number that is multiple
(b) n(B). of 5, determine
Answers : (a) n(S) = (a) n(S),
Answers : (a) n(S) = (b) n(C).
(b) n(A) =
(b) n(B) = Answers : (a) n(S) =

(b) n(C) =

4. There are 14 fans in a hall, each 5. The letters from the word 6. A box contains 7 blue marbles
controlled by a switch. It is SUKAN are to be used to form and 5 yellow marbles where all
known that four fans are spoilt. a five-lettered code. All the the marbles are of the same size.
Two switches are turned on at possible codes are written in Two marbles are drawn from the
random in an experiment. cards and put in a box. A card is box randomly. If F is the event
Given that D is the event where drawn from the box. If E getting two marbles of the same
only one of the two fans works, represents the event of getting colour, determine
determine code which has both the vowels (a) n(S),
(a) n(S), next to each other, determine (b) n(F).
(b) n(D). (a) n(S),
(b) n(D). Answers : (a) n(S) =
Answers : (a) n(S) =
Answers : (a) n(S) = (b) n(F) =
(b) n(D) =
(b) n(E) =

7. Four-digit numbers are to be 8. A 4-member committee of a 9. Code words are to be formed


formed from the digits 2, 4, 6, 7 club is chosen from 4 boys and using all the letters of the word
and 9 without repetitions of 3 girls. Each of the possible COLUMN. Each of the
digits. All the numbers that can 4-member committee formed is possible code words is written
be formed are written in small written on a card and put into a in a small strip of paper and put
pieces of papers and put into a box. One of the cards is drawn into a bag. One of the code
hat. One number is chosen at at random from the box. If H words is chosen from the bag at
random from the hat. If G is the represents the event of random. If L represents the
event getting even number, obtaining a committee that has event of obtaining code word
determine equal number of boys and girls, that begins with a consonant,
(a) n(S), determine determine
(b) n(G). (a) n(S), (a) n(S),
(b) n(H). (b) n(L).
Answers : (a) n(S) =
Answers : (a) n(S) = Answers : (a) n(S) =
(b) n(G) =
(b) n(H) = (b) n(L) =
Answers : 1. (a) 10 (b) 7 2. (a) 8 (b) 3 3. (a) 9 (b) 3 4. (a) 91 (b) 40 5. (a) 120 (b) 48 6. (a) 66 (b) 31
7. (a) 120 (b) 72 8. (a) 35 (b) 18 9. (a) 720 (b) 480

Probability 2
7.1.2 Probability of an Event
(a) The probability that an event A occurs is represented by P(A)
number of outcomes in A n A
(b) By classical definition, P A , where 0 P A 1
number of outcomes in S n S
(c) If P(A) = 0, then the event is sure to fail (or is a certain impossibility).
(d) If P(A) = 1. then the event is sure to succeed (or is an absolute surety)
(e) The probability that an event A does not occur is represented by P(A) where P(A) = 1 P(A)

Task A : Determine the Probability of Simple Events.


1. A bag contains 7 red balls, 5 2. A card is picked randomly from 3. A letter is selected at random
green balls and 6 pink balls. A a pack of cards which contains from the word PHYSICS.
ball is picked at random. Find 4 red cards and 6 yellow cards. Find the probability of selecting
the probability that a red ball is Find the probability that a letter S.
picked. yellow card is picked.
Answer :
Answer : Answer :
A = Event of selecting letter S
R = Event red ball is picked Y = Event of picking yellow card
n(R) = 7, n(A) =
n(S) = 18 n(Y) =
n( R ) n(S) =
P( R)
n( S ) n(S) =
n( A)
7 P ( A)
n(Y ) n( S )
18 P (Y )
n( S )

3 2
5 7
4. A fair dice is flipped once. What 5. Identical cards numbered from 6. Each of the letters from the
is the probability of obtaining a 20 to 40, are put in a bag. A card word TAMBAHAN is written
score greater than 4? is drawn randomly from the on identical cards and then put
bag. Find the probability that in a box. If a card is drawn at
Answer : the number on the card is a random from the box, calculate
prime number. the probability that the card
B = Event of obtaining a score drawn is a vowel.
greater than 4.

n(B) =

n(S) =

1 4 3
3 21 8

Probability 3
7. A box containing all the letters 8. A card is drawn at random from a 9. A fair dice is rolled twice.
of the word PROBABILITY bag which contains 26 identical Calculate the probability of
written on identical cards. If cards written with all the getting numbers with a sum
one card is drawn at random different letters of the alphabet. more than 8.
from the box, find the Find the probability that the card
probability that the card drawn drawn shows a letter from the
shows a consonant. word BAHASA.

7 2 5
11 13 18

Task B : Determine the probability of events involving the idea of permutation and combination.
1. All the different three-digit numbers formed from 2. Six-letter codes are formed by using all the letters in
the digits 2, 3, 6 and 9 without repetition are the word HITUNG. Each code is written on
written in small pieces of papers and then put in a identical ping pong ball and placed in a box.
hat. (a) Determine the total number of different six-letter
(a) Determine the total number of three-digit codes contained in the box.
numbers in the hat. (b) If one of the ping pong balls is drawn randomly,
(b) If one of the number is drawn randomly from find the probability that the ping pong ball is
the hat, calculate the probability that the written with the code that ends with vowel.
number is less than 300.

1
(a) 24 (b) 4 (a) 720 (b) 1
3
3. A four-member committee is to be formed from a 4. A combination of four letters is to be formed by
group of 7 male and 6 female candidates. choosing letters from the word PERANCIS.
(a) Determine the total number of different (a) Determine the total number of different
Committees that can be formed. combinations that can be formed.
(b) If one of the possible committees in (a) is to (b) If one of the possible combinations in (a) is to be
be selected at random, find the probability that picked, calculate the probability that the
the committee selected is made up of 2 males combination does not have vowel.
and 2 females.

63 1
(a) 715 (b) 143 (a) 70 (b) 14
7.2 Probability of Mutually Exclusive Events
Probability 4
(a) If events A and B are mutually exclusive, then only one or the other event can occur at time.
(b) Two events A and B are mutually exclusive events if one of the following conditions happens :
(i) if A B = { } ( or A B = ) or
(ii) if n(A B) = 0 or
(iii) if P(A B ) = 0 or
(iv) if P(A B) = P(A) + P(B)
(c) Two events A and B are exhaustive events if one of the following conditions happens :
(i) if A B = S
(ii) if n(A B) = n(S) or
(iii) if P(A B ) = 1

Task A : Determine whether events are mutually exclusive and exhaustive.


1. A fair coin is flipped twice. Events A and B are 2. A fair dice is rolled. Event C is the event a score of
defined below : less than 6 and event D is the event a score of more
A = Event where both flips show heads than 2. State, with a reason, whether events C and D
B = Event where the two flips result in at least a (a) are mutually exclusive events,
tail (b) are exhaustive events.
State, with a reason, whether events A and B are (a)
mutually exclusive events,
(b) exhaustive events.

(a) Yes, because (b) Yes, because (a) No, because (b) Yes, because
3. The sample space S is given by 4. The sample space, S, and the events V and W are
S = { x : 0 < x < 21, x is an integer }. defined as follows :
Event X and Y are defined as follows: S = Set of code words formed from all the letters of
X = { x : x are even integers } the word MAS without repetition
Y = { x : x are integers which are multiple of 3 } V = Set of code words that begin and end with
By finding P(X), P(Y) and P(X Y), determine consonants
whether events X and Y W = Set of code words that begin with a vowel and
(a) are mutually exclusive events, end with a consonant.
(b) are exhaustive events. By finding P(V), P(W) and P(V W), determine
whether events V and W
(a) are mutually exclusive events,
(b) are exhaustive events.

(a) No, because (b) No, because (a) Yes, because (b) No, because
Task B : Determine the probability of the events below.
Probability 5
1. A box contains 5 red, 3 yellow 2. A card is picked randomly from 3. On a rack, there are 6 Science
and 4 green marbles. A marble the cards below. books, 12 Mathematics books
is drawn randomly from the O U T C O M E S and 2 History books. A book is
box. Find the probability that to be chosen randomly from the
the colour of the marble is Find the probability of getting a rack. Calculate the probability
yellow or green. card with a consonant or a letter of choosing a Science book or a
O. Mathematics book.

7 3 9
12 4 10
4. A number is chosen at random 5. A bag contains 5 blue pens, 2 red 6.
3 4 3 5 3 5 6
from the set {1, 2, , 20}. pens and 1 green pen. A pen is
Find the probability that the picked at random from the bag. A card is picked randomly from
number is a multiple of 4 or a Find the probability of getting a the cards above. Find the
multiple of 7. blue or a green pen. probability of getting a card
with digit 3 or digit 5.

7 3 5
20 4 7
7. Nine cards are written with the 8. Muthu chooses a number 9. A fair dice is rolled once. Find
letters of the word STATISTIC. randomly from a set S where the probability that the dice
If a card is selected randomly, S = { x : 10 x 20 , x is an shows an odd number or a
find the probability that the card integer}. number more than 5.
has the letter T or a vowel. Find the probability that the
number is a prime number or a
multiple of 5.

2 7 2
3 11 3
7.3 Probability of Independent Events
Probability 6
(a) If events A and B are independent, then the outcome of event A does not affect the occurrence of the
outcome of event B and vice versa.
(b) If A and B are two independent events, then P(A B) = P(A) P(B).
(c) If A, B and C are three independent events, then P(A B C) = P(A) P(B) P(C)
(d) Examples of independent events A and B:
(i) Case 1 : Experiment : Tossing a fair coin and rolling a fair dice.
A = Event of getting head
B = Event of getting prime number
(ii) Case 2 : Experiment : Rolling a fair dice twice.
A = Event of getting even number from the first roll
B = Event of getting even number from the second roll
(iii) Case 3 : Experiment : A coin is tossed and a card is picked
A = Event of getting tail
B = Event of picking a diamond card
(e) A tree diagram is very useful in helping us to answer questions that involve independent events

Task A : Determine the probability of the events below.


1. A fair coin and a fair dice are 2. The probabilities of Thomas 3. In a certain region, it is observed
tossed simultaneously. passing in the English test and that the probability that will rain
Determine the probability of 2 1 2
obtaining a tail and a number Science test are and in a day is . Find the
3 4 5
greater than 4. respectively. Calculate the probability that it will rain for 2
probability that he will pass in days.
Answer :
both test.
A = getting a tail
B = getting a number greater
than 4
1 1
P ( A) , P( B)
2 3
P( A and B ) P( A B )
P( A) P ( B)
1 1

2 3
1 4
1 6 25

6
4. The probability that a defective 5. The probability that a shooter 6. There are 9 pens in a pencil box
bulb produced from a factory is 3 of which 5 are red. If two pens
2 hits the target is . For 2 are chosen randomly, one by
. If Jack buys two bulbs, 5
7 shots, find the probability that one with replacement, find the
find the probability that he will he will fail to hit the target both probability that both pens are
get two good bulbs. times. not red.

25 16
49 81

Probability 7
4
25
Task B : Determine probability by using Tree Diagram.
1. Ali shoots two arrows. The probability of Ali hitting 2. There is a 30% chance that Leela will cycle to school
3 in a school day. By drawing a tree diagram, find the
the bulls eye with each shot is . By drawing a probability that out of any two school days, Leela
5
tree diagram, find the probability of Ali hitting the will cycle to school in only one day.
bulls eye at least once.
Answer :
Answer : C = event cycling to school
C/ = event not cycling to school possible
A = event hitting the bulls eye possible outcomes
A/ = event not hitting the bulls eye outcomes
3 A AA
5

3 A
5
2
5 A/ AA/
3 A A/A
5
2
5 A/
2
5 A/ A/A first day second day
first shot second shot
P(hit bulls eye at least once)
= P(AA) + P(AA/) + P(A/A)
3 3 3 2 2 3
=
5 5 5 5 5 5
21
=
25
0.42
3. A box contains 4 red cards and 3 green cards. Two 4. Box A contains 1 black marble and 5 white marbles.
cards are drawn at random, one after another Box B contains 4 black marbles and 3 white
without replacement. By drawing a tree diagram, marbles. A marble is picked at random from box A
find the probability that both the cards are of and box B. By drawing a tree diagram, find the
different colour. probability that both of the marbles are of the same
colour.

Probability 8
4 19
7 42

5 A bag contains 5 black marbles and 3 white marbles. 6. Envelop P contains 5 cards labeled as X, X, Y, Y,
Two marbles are drawn at random, one after another Y whereas envelop Q contains 6 cards labeled
from the bag without replacement. By drawing a tree as X, Y, Y, Y, Y, Y. A card is picked at random
diagram, find the probability that both of the marbles from envelop P and envelop Q. By drawing a tree
are of the same colour.
diagram, find the probability that both of the
cards are of different letters.

13 13
28 30
7. A fair dice is rolled three times. By drawing a tree 8. The probability of obtaining a spoilt orange from a
diagram, find the probability that the number 4 is 1
obtained only once. basket is . If three oranges are selected, find the
4
probability that only an orange is spoilt.

Probability 9
25 27
72 64
7.4 Past Years Actual SPM Questions

Task : Answer all the questions below.


1. SPM 2004 (No.24 / Paper 1) 2. SPM 2005 (No. 24 / Paper 1)
A box contains 6 white marbles and k black The following table shows the number of
marbles. If a marble is picked randomly from the coloured cards in a box
box, the probability of getting a black marble is Colour Number of Cards
3 Black 5
. Find the value of k. [3 marks]
5 Blue 4
Yellow 3

Two cards are drawn at random from the box. Find


the probability that both cards are of the same
colour. [3 marks]

k=9 19
66
3. SPM 2006 (No. 23 / Paper 1) 4. SPM 2008 (No. 24 / Paper 1)
The probability that Hamid qualifies for the final of a The probability of Sarah being chosen as a
2 3
track event is while the probability that Mohan school prefect is while the probability of
5 5
1 7
qualifies is . Find the probability that Aini being chosen is . Find the probability
3 12
(a) both of them qualify for the final, that
(b) only one of them qualifies for the final. (a) neither of them is chosen as a school
[ 3 marks] prefect,
(b) only one of them is chosen as a school
prefect. [4 marks]

Probability 10
2 7
(a) 15 (b) 15
29
(a) 1
6 (b) 60
7.5 Enhanced Exercise with Questions of SPM Format

Task : Answer all the questions below.


1. A bag contains 6 blue marbles and k red marbles. If 2. Two dice, one white and one black, are rolled
a marble is picked randomly from the bag, the together. Calculate the probability that the score
3 on the white dice is twice the score on the black
probability of picking a red marble is . Find the
5 dice.
value of k.

1
9 12

3. A box contains 40 marbles. Some are green and 4. Bag I contains 2 blue marbles and 6 black marbles
some are red. If a marble is drawn at random from while bag II contains 3 blue marbles and 4 black
the box, the probability that a green marble drawn marbles. If a marble is chosen at random from each
2 bag, calculate the probability that
is . Calculate (a) both the marbles are black,
5
(b) the marble from bag I is blue and the marble
(a) the number of red marbles in the box,
from bag II is black.
(b) the number of red marbles that have to be
(c) At least one of the marbles chosen is black.
added to the box such that the probability to
15
draw a red marble becomes .
23

Probability 11
(a) 24 (b) 6 (a) 3
(b) 1
(c) 25
7 7 28

5. Two six-faced unbiased dice are rolled together. 6. In a soccer match between team A and team B, the
Calculate the probability that result can be a draw or a win for team A or a win for
(a) the sum of two numbers is 8. team B. The probability that team A and team B will
(b) The difference of two numbers is 5, 1 1
(c) The sum of two numbers is 8 or The win are and respectively. In two matches,
3 2
difference of two numbers is 5.
calculates the probability that team A will win once
and draw once.

5 1 7
(a) 36 (b) 18 (c) 36 1
18
7. A marble is drawn at random from a box containing 8. Box C contains marbles of which 4 are black and 6
3 black marbles, 4 green marbles and 5 white are yellow. Two marbles are drawn at random, one
marbles. after another with replacement. Determine the
(a) What is the probability of drawing a black or a probability that
green marble? (a) both the marbles are black.
(b) What is the probability of drawing neither a (b) the two marbles in different colour.
black nor a white marble? (c) at least one of the marbles is yellow.

Probability 12
4
(a) 7
(b) 1 (a) 25 (b) 12 21
25 (c) 25
12 3

9. At Halims shop, there are 5 refrigerators, P, Q, R, S 10. The probability of obtaining the number 4 when a
and T and 4 washing machines, A, B, C and D. If a 1
refrigerator and a washing machine are chosen at bias dice is rolled is . If the bias dice is rolled
4
random, calculate the probability that refregerators
simultaneously with a fair dice, find the probability
P or Q and washing machine A are chosen.
of obtaining 4 on only one of the dice.

1 1
10 3
11. There are 3 reference books and 6 novels arranged 12. A box contains 9 cards. Each card is written with a
on shelf A while 7 reference books and 5 novels are letter from the word GEOGRAPHY. If two
arranged on shelf B. If a book is chosen at random cards are drawn at random, one after the other,
from each shelf, find the probability that a without replacement, calculate the probability that
reference book is chosen from shelf A and a novel a letter G and a vowel are drawn.
is chosen from shelf B.

5 1
36 6
13. Bag A contains 4 cards numbered 3, 5, 6 and 7. 14.
2 6 5 4 12 15
Bag B contains 5 cards numbered 4, 5, 6, 7 and 8.
A card is drawn at random from each bag. Find The diagram above shows 6 pieces of numbered
the probability that both cards have cards. If one card is chosen at random, find the
(a) even numbers, probability that the number chosen is
(b) the same numbers. (a) a multiple of 3 and a factor of 24,
(b) a prime number or an even number.

Probability 13
3 3 1 5
(a) 20 (b) 20 (a) 3 (b) 6

Probability 14