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Oct 11, 2017

7 Probability

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MATEMATIK TAMBAHAN

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7 Probability

MATEMATIK TAMBAHAN

© All Rights Reserved

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PROBABILITY

7.1.1 Sample Space and Events

a. Experiment is an activity that we carry out to observe a result.

b. Outcome is the result of an experiment that we observed.

c. Sample space is set of all the possible outcomes (or results) in an experiment

d. The sample space is denoted by the letter S.

e. Event is the set of all the possible outcomes (or results) in the sample space that we wish to get.

f. An event can be denoted by any capital letters except S .

g. n(S) denotes the number of possible outcomes in the sample space.

h n(A) denotes the number of possible outcomes in the event A.

Task A : Determine the number of possible outcomes in the sample space and the event by listing the outcomes.

1. An experiment is conducted by rolling a fair dice 2. In an experiment where a fair coin is tossed twice,

once. If A is the event of getting an even score, HT represents an outcome where the first toss

(a) express, in set notation, results in a head and the second toss results in a

(i) the sample space, tail. If B is the event of obtaining at least one

(ii) the event A, tail,

(b) determine the number of possible outcomes in (a) express, in set notation,

(i) the sample space, (i) the sample space,

(ii) the event A. (ii) the event B,

(b) determine the number of possible outcomes in

Answer : (a)(i) S = { } (i) the sample space,

(ii) the event B.

(a)(ii) A = { }

Answer : (a)(i) S =

(b)(i) n(S) =

(a)(ii) B =

(b)(ii) n(A) =

(b)(i) n(S) =

(b)(ii) n(B) =

3. A card is picked randomly from the following cards. 4. In an experiment, two numbers are randomly

chosen, the first from set A = {3 , 5 , 6] and the

H E B A T second from set B = { 2 , 4 , 8}. If D is the event of

getting a total score at least 10,

If C is the event of obtaining vowel, (a) express, in set notation, [Note : (x , y)

(a) express, in set notation, represents an outcome where x A and y B]

(i) the sample space, (i) the sample space,

(ii) the event C, (ii) the event D,

(b) determine the number of possible outcomes in (b) determine the number of possible outcomes in

(i) the sample space, (i) the sample space,

(ii) the event C. (ii) the event D.

(a)(ii) C = (a)(ii) D =

(b)(i) n(S) = (b)(i) n(S) =

(b)(ii) n(C) = (b)(ii) n(D) =

Answers: 1. S = {1,2,3,4,5,6}; A = {2,4,6}; n(S) = 6; n(A) = 3 2. S = {HH,HT,TH,TT}; B = {HT,TH,TT}; n(S) = 4; n(B) = 3

2. S = {H,E,B,A,T}; C = {E,A}; n(S) = 5; n(C) = 2 4. S = {(3,2),(3,4),(3,8),(5,2),(5,4),(5,8),(6,2),(6,4),(6,8)} ; n(S) = 9

D = {(3,8),(5,8),(6,4),(6,8)} n(D) = 4

Probability 1

Task B: Determine the number possible outcomes in the sample space and the event without listing the outcomes.

1. A box contains 3 black balls, 2 2. A box contains cards of which 3. The table shows a set of

green balls and 5 red balls. A each card is written with an numbers. A number is chosen at

ball is drawn at random from alphabet from the word random from the set.

the box. If A represents the TAMBAHAN. A card is 10 11 15

event not getting the black drawn at random from the box. 17 22 19

balls, determine If B represents the event of 16 25 18

(a) n(S), obtaining vowel card, determine If C represents the event of

(b) n(A). (a) n(S), choosing number that is multiple

(b) n(B). of 5, determine

Answers : (a) n(S) = (a) n(S),

Answers : (a) n(S) = (b) n(C).

(b) n(A) =

(b) n(B) = Answers : (a) n(S) =

(b) n(C) =

4. There are 14 fans in a hall, each 5. The letters from the word 6. A box contains 7 blue marbles

controlled by a switch. It is SUKAN are to be used to form and 5 yellow marbles where all

known that four fans are spoilt. a five-lettered code. All the the marbles are of the same size.

Two switches are turned on at possible codes are written in Two marbles are drawn from the

random in an experiment. cards and put in a box. A card is box randomly. If F is the event

Given that D is the event where drawn from the box. If E getting two marbles of the same

only one of the two fans works, represents the event of getting colour, determine

determine code which has both the vowels (a) n(S),

(a) n(S), next to each other, determine (b) n(F).

(b) n(D). (a) n(S),

(b) n(D). Answers : (a) n(S) =

Answers : (a) n(S) =

Answers : (a) n(S) = (b) n(F) =

(b) n(D) =

(b) n(E) =

formed from the digits 2, 4, 6, 7 club is chosen from 4 boys and using all the letters of the word

and 9 without repetitions of 3 girls. Each of the possible COLUMN. Each of the

digits. All the numbers that can 4-member committee formed is possible code words is written

be formed are written in small written on a card and put into a in a small strip of paper and put

pieces of papers and put into a box. One of the cards is drawn into a bag. One of the code

hat. One number is chosen at at random from the box. If H words is chosen from the bag at

random from the hat. If G is the represents the event of random. If L represents the

event getting even number, obtaining a committee that has event of obtaining code word

determine equal number of boys and girls, that begins with a consonant,

(a) n(S), determine determine

(b) n(G). (a) n(S), (a) n(S),

(b) n(H). (b) n(L).

Answers : (a) n(S) =

Answers : (a) n(S) = Answers : (a) n(S) =

(b) n(G) =

(b) n(H) = (b) n(L) =

Answers : 1. (a) 10 (b) 7 2. (a) 8 (b) 3 3. (a) 9 (b) 3 4. (a) 91 (b) 40 5. (a) 120 (b) 48 6. (a) 66 (b) 31

7. (a) 120 (b) 72 8. (a) 35 (b) 18 9. (a) 720 (b) 480

Probability 2

7.1.2 Probability of an Event

(a) The probability that an event A occurs is represented by P(A)

number of outcomes in A n A

(b) By classical definition, P A , where 0 P A 1

number of outcomes in S n S

(c) If P(A) = 0, then the event is sure to fail (or is a certain impossibility).

(d) If P(A) = 1. then the event is sure to succeed (or is an absolute surety)

(e) The probability that an event A does not occur is represented by P(A) where P(A) = 1 P(A)

1. A bag contains 7 red balls, 5 2. A card is picked randomly from 3. A letter is selected at random

green balls and 6 pink balls. A a pack of cards which contains from the word PHYSICS.

ball is picked at random. Find 4 red cards and 6 yellow cards. Find the probability of selecting

the probability that a red ball is Find the probability that a letter S.

picked. yellow card is picked.

Answer :

Answer : Answer :

A = Event of selecting letter S

R = Event red ball is picked Y = Event of picking yellow card

n(R) = 7, n(A) =

n(S) = 18 n(Y) =

n( R ) n(S) =

P( R)

n( S ) n(S) =

n( A)

7 P ( A)

n(Y ) n( S )

18 P (Y )

n( S )

3 2

5 7

4. A fair dice is flipped once. What 5. Identical cards numbered from 6. Each of the letters from the

is the probability of obtaining a 20 to 40, are put in a bag. A card word TAMBAHAN is written

score greater than 4? is drawn randomly from the on identical cards and then put

bag. Find the probability that in a box. If a card is drawn at

Answer : the number on the card is a random from the box, calculate

prime number. the probability that the card

B = Event of obtaining a score drawn is a vowel.

greater than 4.

n(B) =

n(S) =

1 4 3

3 21 8

Probability 3

7. A box containing all the letters 8. A card is drawn at random from a 9. A fair dice is rolled twice.

of the word PROBABILITY bag which contains 26 identical Calculate the probability of

written on identical cards. If cards written with all the getting numbers with a sum

one card is drawn at random different letters of the alphabet. more than 8.

from the box, find the Find the probability that the card

probability that the card drawn drawn shows a letter from the

shows a consonant. word BAHASA.

7 2 5

11 13 18

Task B : Determine the probability of events involving the idea of permutation and combination.

1. All the different three-digit numbers formed from 2. Six-letter codes are formed by using all the letters in

the digits 2, 3, 6 and 9 without repetition are the word HITUNG. Each code is written on

written in small pieces of papers and then put in a identical ping pong ball and placed in a box.

hat. (a) Determine the total number of different six-letter

(a) Determine the total number of three-digit codes contained in the box.

numbers in the hat. (b) If one of the ping pong balls is drawn randomly,

(b) If one of the number is drawn randomly from find the probability that the ping pong ball is

the hat, calculate the probability that the written with the code that ends with vowel.

number is less than 300.

1

(a) 24 (b) 4 (a) 720 (b) 1

3

3. A four-member committee is to be formed from a 4. A combination of four letters is to be formed by

group of 7 male and 6 female candidates. choosing letters from the word PERANCIS.

(a) Determine the total number of different (a) Determine the total number of different

Committees that can be formed. combinations that can be formed.

(b) If one of the possible committees in (a) is to (b) If one of the possible combinations in (a) is to be

be selected at random, find the probability that picked, calculate the probability that the

the committee selected is made up of 2 males combination does not have vowel.

and 2 females.

63 1

(a) 715 (b) 143 (a) 70 (b) 14

7.2 Probability of Mutually Exclusive Events

Probability 4

(a) If events A and B are mutually exclusive, then only one or the other event can occur at time.

(b) Two events A and B are mutually exclusive events if one of the following conditions happens :

(i) if A B = { } ( or A B = ) or

(ii) if n(A B) = 0 or

(iii) if P(A B ) = 0 or

(iv) if P(A B) = P(A) + P(B)

(c) Two events A and B are exhaustive events if one of the following conditions happens :

(i) if A B = S

(ii) if n(A B) = n(S) or

(iii) if P(A B ) = 1

1. A fair coin is flipped twice. Events A and B are 2. A fair dice is rolled. Event C is the event a score of

defined below : less than 6 and event D is the event a score of more

A = Event where both flips show heads than 2. State, with a reason, whether events C and D

B = Event where the two flips result in at least a (a) are mutually exclusive events,

tail (b) are exhaustive events.

State, with a reason, whether events A and B are (a)

mutually exclusive events,

(b) exhaustive events.

(a) Yes, because (b) Yes, because (a) No, because (b) Yes, because

3. The sample space S is given by 4. The sample space, S, and the events V and W are

S = { x : 0 < x < 21, x is an integer }. defined as follows :

Event X and Y are defined as follows: S = Set of code words formed from all the letters of

X = { x : x are even integers } the word MAS without repetition

Y = { x : x are integers which are multiple of 3 } V = Set of code words that begin and end with

By finding P(X), P(Y) and P(X Y), determine consonants

whether events X and Y W = Set of code words that begin with a vowel and

(a) are mutually exclusive events, end with a consonant.

(b) are exhaustive events. By finding P(V), P(W) and P(V W), determine

whether events V and W

(a) are mutually exclusive events,

(b) are exhaustive events.

(a) No, because (b) No, because (a) Yes, because (b) No, because

Task B : Determine the probability of the events below.

Probability 5

1. A box contains 5 red, 3 yellow 2. A card is picked randomly from 3. On a rack, there are 6 Science

and 4 green marbles. A marble the cards below. books, 12 Mathematics books

is drawn randomly from the O U T C O M E S and 2 History books. A book is

box. Find the probability that to be chosen randomly from the

the colour of the marble is Find the probability of getting a rack. Calculate the probability

yellow or green. card with a consonant or a letter of choosing a Science book or a

O. Mathematics book.

7 3 9

12 4 10

4. A number is chosen at random 5. A bag contains 5 blue pens, 2 red 6.

3 4 3 5 3 5 6

from the set {1, 2, , 20}. pens and 1 green pen. A pen is

Find the probability that the picked at random from the bag. A card is picked randomly from

number is a multiple of 4 or a Find the probability of getting a the cards above. Find the

multiple of 7. blue or a green pen. probability of getting a card

with digit 3 or digit 5.

7 3 5

20 4 7

7. Nine cards are written with the 8. Muthu chooses a number 9. A fair dice is rolled once. Find

letters of the word STATISTIC. randomly from a set S where the probability that the dice

If a card is selected randomly, S = { x : 10 x 20 , x is an shows an odd number or a

find the probability that the card integer}. number more than 5.

has the letter T or a vowel. Find the probability that the

number is a prime number or a

multiple of 5.

2 7 2

3 11 3

7.3 Probability of Independent Events

Probability 6

(a) If events A and B are independent, then the outcome of event A does not affect the occurrence of the

outcome of event B and vice versa.

(b) If A and B are two independent events, then P(A B) = P(A) P(B).

(c) If A, B and C are three independent events, then P(A B C) = P(A) P(B) P(C)

(d) Examples of independent events A and B:

(i) Case 1 : Experiment : Tossing a fair coin and rolling a fair dice.

A = Event of getting head

B = Event of getting prime number

(ii) Case 2 : Experiment : Rolling a fair dice twice.

A = Event of getting even number from the first roll

B = Event of getting even number from the second roll

(iii) Case 3 : Experiment : A coin is tossed and a card is picked

A = Event of getting tail

B = Event of picking a diamond card

(e) A tree diagram is very useful in helping us to answer questions that involve independent events

1. A fair coin and a fair dice are 2. The probabilities of Thomas 3. In a certain region, it is observed

tossed simultaneously. passing in the English test and that the probability that will rain

Determine the probability of 2 1 2

obtaining a tail and a number Science test are and in a day is . Find the

3 4 5

greater than 4. respectively. Calculate the probability that it will rain for 2

probability that he will pass in days.

Answer :

both test.

A = getting a tail

B = getting a number greater

than 4

1 1

P ( A) , P( B)

2 3

P( A and B ) P( A B )

P( A) P ( B)

1 1

2 3

1 4

1 6 25

6

4. The probability that a defective 5. The probability that a shooter 6. There are 9 pens in a pencil box

bulb produced from a factory is 3 of which 5 are red. If two pens

2 hits the target is . For 2 are chosen randomly, one by

. If Jack buys two bulbs, 5

7 shots, find the probability that one with replacement, find the

find the probability that he will he will fail to hit the target both probability that both pens are

get two good bulbs. times. not red.

25 16

49 81

Probability 7

4

25

Task B : Determine probability by using Tree Diagram.

1. Ali shoots two arrows. The probability of Ali hitting 2. There is a 30% chance that Leela will cycle to school

3 in a school day. By drawing a tree diagram, find the

the bulls eye with each shot is . By drawing a probability that out of any two school days, Leela

5

tree diagram, find the probability of Ali hitting the will cycle to school in only one day.

bulls eye at least once.

Answer :

Answer : C = event cycling to school

C/ = event not cycling to school possible

A = event hitting the bulls eye possible outcomes

A/ = event not hitting the bulls eye outcomes

3 A AA

5

3 A

5

2

5 A/ AA/

3 A A/A

5

2

5 A/

2

5 A/ A/A first day second day

first shot second shot

P(hit bulls eye at least once)

= P(AA) + P(AA/) + P(A/A)

3 3 3 2 2 3

=

5 5 5 5 5 5

21

=

25

0.42

3. A box contains 4 red cards and 3 green cards. Two 4. Box A contains 1 black marble and 5 white marbles.

cards are drawn at random, one after another Box B contains 4 black marbles and 3 white

without replacement. By drawing a tree diagram, marbles. A marble is picked at random from box A

find the probability that both the cards are of and box B. By drawing a tree diagram, find the

different colour. probability that both of the marbles are of the same

colour.

Probability 8

4 19

7 42

5 A bag contains 5 black marbles and 3 white marbles. 6. Envelop P contains 5 cards labeled as X, X, Y, Y,

Two marbles are drawn at random, one after another Y whereas envelop Q contains 6 cards labeled

from the bag without replacement. By drawing a tree as X, Y, Y, Y, Y, Y. A card is picked at random

diagram, find the probability that both of the marbles from envelop P and envelop Q. By drawing a tree

are of the same colour.

diagram, find the probability that both of the

cards are of different letters.

13 13

28 30

7. A fair dice is rolled three times. By drawing a tree 8. The probability of obtaining a spoilt orange from a

diagram, find the probability that the number 4 is 1

obtained only once. basket is . If three oranges are selected, find the

4

probability that only an orange is spoilt.

Probability 9

25 27

72 64

7.4 Past Years Actual SPM Questions

1. SPM 2004 (No.24 / Paper 1) 2. SPM 2005 (No. 24 / Paper 1)

A box contains 6 white marbles and k black The following table shows the number of

marbles. If a marble is picked randomly from the coloured cards in a box

box, the probability of getting a black marble is Colour Number of Cards

3 Black 5

. Find the value of k. [3 marks]

5 Blue 4

Yellow 3

the probability that both cards are of the same

colour. [3 marks]

k=9 19

66

3. SPM 2006 (No. 23 / Paper 1) 4. SPM 2008 (No. 24 / Paper 1)

The probability that Hamid qualifies for the final of a The probability of Sarah being chosen as a

2 3

track event is while the probability that Mohan school prefect is while the probability of

5 5

1 7

qualifies is . Find the probability that Aini being chosen is . Find the probability

3 12

(a) both of them qualify for the final, that

(b) only one of them qualifies for the final. (a) neither of them is chosen as a school

[ 3 marks] prefect,

(b) only one of them is chosen as a school

prefect. [4 marks]

Probability 10

2 7

(a) 15 (b) 15

29

(a) 1

6 (b) 60

7.5 Enhanced Exercise with Questions of SPM Format

1. A bag contains 6 blue marbles and k red marbles. If 2. Two dice, one white and one black, are rolled

a marble is picked randomly from the bag, the together. Calculate the probability that the score

3 on the white dice is twice the score on the black

probability of picking a red marble is . Find the

5 dice.

value of k.

1

9 12

3. A box contains 40 marbles. Some are green and 4. Bag I contains 2 blue marbles and 6 black marbles

some are red. If a marble is drawn at random from while bag II contains 3 blue marbles and 4 black

the box, the probability that a green marble drawn marbles. If a marble is chosen at random from each

2 bag, calculate the probability that

is . Calculate (a) both the marbles are black,

5

(b) the marble from bag I is blue and the marble

(a) the number of red marbles in the box,

from bag II is black.

(b) the number of red marbles that have to be

(c) At least one of the marbles chosen is black.

added to the box such that the probability to

15

draw a red marble becomes .

23

Probability 11

(a) 24 (b) 6 (a) 3

(b) 1

(c) 25

7 7 28

5. Two six-faced unbiased dice are rolled together. 6. In a soccer match between team A and team B, the

Calculate the probability that result can be a draw or a win for team A or a win for

(a) the sum of two numbers is 8. team B. The probability that team A and team B will

(b) The difference of two numbers is 5, 1 1

(c) The sum of two numbers is 8 or The win are and respectively. In two matches,

3 2

difference of two numbers is 5.

calculates the probability that team A will win once

and draw once.

5 1 7

(a) 36 (b) 18 (c) 36 1

18

7. A marble is drawn at random from a box containing 8. Box C contains marbles of which 4 are black and 6

3 black marbles, 4 green marbles and 5 white are yellow. Two marbles are drawn at random, one

marbles. after another with replacement. Determine the

(a) What is the probability of drawing a black or a probability that

green marble? (a) both the marbles are black.

(b) What is the probability of drawing neither a (b) the two marbles in different colour.

black nor a white marble? (c) at least one of the marbles is yellow.

Probability 12

4

(a) 7

(b) 1 (a) 25 (b) 12 21

25 (c) 25

12 3

9. At Halims shop, there are 5 refrigerators, P, Q, R, S 10. The probability of obtaining the number 4 when a

and T and 4 washing machines, A, B, C and D. If a 1

refrigerator and a washing machine are chosen at bias dice is rolled is . If the bias dice is rolled

4

random, calculate the probability that refregerators

simultaneously with a fair dice, find the probability

P or Q and washing machine A are chosen.

of obtaining 4 on only one of the dice.

1 1

10 3

11. There are 3 reference books and 6 novels arranged 12. A box contains 9 cards. Each card is written with a

on shelf A while 7 reference books and 5 novels are letter from the word GEOGRAPHY. If two

arranged on shelf B. If a book is chosen at random cards are drawn at random, one after the other,

from each shelf, find the probability that a without replacement, calculate the probability that

reference book is chosen from shelf A and a novel a letter G and a vowel are drawn.

is chosen from shelf B.

5 1

36 6

13. Bag A contains 4 cards numbered 3, 5, 6 and 7. 14.

2 6 5 4 12 15

Bag B contains 5 cards numbered 4, 5, 6, 7 and 8.

A card is drawn at random from each bag. Find The diagram above shows 6 pieces of numbered

the probability that both cards have cards. If one card is chosen at random, find the

(a) even numbers, probability that the number chosen is

(b) the same numbers. (a) a multiple of 3 and a factor of 24,

(b) a prime number or an even number.

Probability 13

3 3 1 5

(a) 20 (b) 20 (a) 3 (b) 6

Probability 14

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