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Journal of King Saud University Engineering Sciences (2014) xxx, xxxxxx
1
2 ORIGINAL ARTICLE
13 KEYWORDS Abstract The objective of this study is to develop a feed forward neural network (FFNN) model
14
15 Radial basis function neural and a radial basis function neural network (RBFNN) model to predict the dissolved oxygen from
16 Q3 network; biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) and chemical oxygen demand (COD) in the Surma River, Ban-
17 Feed forward neural net- gladesh. The neural network model was developed using experimental data which were collected
18 work; during a three year long study. The input combinations were prepared based on the correlation
19 Dissolved oxygen; coefcient with dissolved oxygen. Performance of the ANN models was evaluated using correlation
20 Surma River coefcient (R), mean squared error (MSE) and coefcient of efciency (E). It was found that the
ANN model could be employed successfully in estimating the dissolved oxygen of the Surma River.
Comparative indices of the optimized RBFNN with input values of biochemical oxygen demand
(BOD) and chemical oxygen demand (COD) for prediction of DO for testing array were
MSE = 0.465, E = 0.905 and R = 0.904 and for validation array were MSE = 1.009, E = 0.966
and R = 0.963. Comparing the modeled values by RBFNN and FFNN with the experimental data
indicates that neural network model provides reasonable results.
21 2014 Production and hosting by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of King Saud University.
1. Introduction 22
1018-3639 2014 Production and hosting by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of King Saud University.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jksues.2014.05.001
Please cite this article in press as: Ahmed, A.A.M. Prediction of dissolved oxygen in Surma River inuenced by biochemical oxygen demand and
Q1 chemical oxygen demand using the articial neural networks (ANNs). Journal of King Saud University Engineering Sciences (2014), http://
dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jksues.2014.05.001
JKSUES 145 No. of Pages 8
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2 A.A. Masrur Ahmed
32 The water quality models such as River and Stream Water the three data sets were 1.50 for training, 1.44 for validation, 84
33 Quality Model (QUAL2K) (Chapra and Pellettier, 2003) and and 1.23 for testing. 85
34 Water Quality Analysis Simulation Program (WASP) (Wool The aim of this paper is to construct a feed forward neural 86
35 et al., 2006) are very complicated as they require more informa- network (FFNN) model and a radial basis function neural net- 87
36 tion of the river system. It makes sense to utilize articial intel- work (RBFNN) model to predict the dissolved oxygen in the 88
37 ligence (AI) techniques to derive the crucial information about Surma River, Bangladesh and demonstrate its application to 89
38 the river water quality. Articial neural networks have been identifying complex nonlinear relationships between input 90
39 increasingly used in the prediction of water quality variables and output variables. The Surma River has been preferred 91
40 (Nash and Sutcliffe, 1970; French et al., 1992; Zhu and due to its importance in water supply as well as its high ecolog- 92
41 Fujita, 1994; Yi-Ming et al., 2003). An ANN learns to solve a ical importance. The proposed model may contribute to more 93
42 problem by developing a memory capable of correlating a large efcient management as well as to preventive activities. 94
43 number of input patterns with a resulting set of yields. ANN
44 models mimic somewhat the learning process of a human brain.
2. Materials and methods 95
45 They operate like a black box model, requiring no detailed
46 information about the system (Ahmed et al., 2013). Another
47 advantage of using ANNs is their ability to handle large and 2.1. Study area and water quality data 96
Please cite this article in press as: Ahmed, A.A.M. Prediction of dissolved oxygen in Surma River inuenced by biochemical oxygen demand and
Q1 chemical oxygen demand using the articial neural networks (ANNs). Journal of King Saud University Engineering Sciences (2014), http://
dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jksues.2014.05.001
JKSUES 145 No. of Pages 8
26 May 2014
Prediction of dissolved oxygen in Surma River 3
Table 2 Basic Statistics of the measured water quality variables in the Surma River.
Variable Unit Minimum Maximum Mean SD CDO
BOD mg/l 0.6 17.3 3.79 2.86 0.727
COD mg/l 2.2 19.43 6.65 2.11 0.557
DO mg/l 1.9 17.30 5.40 2.45 1.000
SD: standard deviation; CDO: correlation with DO.
143
132 the RBFN-I and FFNN-I models were constructed with both The output of a neuron can be expressed as : out fn 1 145
133 Q4 variables (Table 3). 146
X
R
Where n xj xj b; 2
148
134 2.2. Articial neural network model j1
149
135 The articial neural networks are composed of a set of arti- x1, x2, . . .. . ., xR are the input signals; 150
136 cial neurons which are inspired by biological systems. The x1, x2, . . .. . ., xR are the weights of the neuron; 151
137 model of a neuron is represented in Fig. 2. Back propagation b is bias value; and 152
138 (BP) is a gradient descent algorithm in which the gradient is f (n) is the activation function. 153
139 computed for nonlinear multilayer networks. The ANN 154
140 parameters (weights and biases) can be adjusted to minimize The linear and sigmoid are the most common used activa- 155
141 the sum of the squares of the differences between the actual tion functions in the construction of articial neural networks 156
142 values and network output values. (Rankcovic et al., 2010). 157
Please cite this article in press as: Ahmed, A.A.M. Prediction of dissolved oxygen in Surma River inuenced by biochemical oxygen demand and
Q1 chemical oxygen demand using the articial neural networks (ANNs). Journal of King Saud University Engineering Sciences (2014), http://
dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jksues.2014.05.001
JKSUES 145 No. of Pages 8
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4 A.A. Masrur Ahmed
158 The linear function is written as the hidden unit output function. The RBF meta model is based 200
159
161 fn n 3 on radial basis functions using cones (circular hyperboloid), 201
and it is mathematically represented as follows: 202
203
162 and the logistic sigmoid function is dened as X
n
163
1 fx wi ;jjx xi jj 7
fn 4 i1 205
165 1 en
where n is the number of sampling points; x is the vector of 206
166 However, Haykin (1999) identied a sigmoid function that
input variables; x is the center of basis function /, |||| is any 207
167 can be used as a hyperbolic tangent function
168 lp norm (typically is Euclidean norm, this kind of norm is used 208
1 en in this study) and w is the unknown weighting coefcient. 209
fn 5
170 1 en Therefore, an RBF is actually a linear combination of n basis 210
171 The output y at linear output node can be calculated as: functions with weighted coefcients. 211
172 RBF can be expressed as a matrix format:
0 P 1 212
R 213
xjx
XB
z b
i;j1 i1
C f Ak 8 215
Bx1;i2 1 e
j1
y @ PR C
A b12 6 216
x
174
i0
1e j1 jxi;j1 bi1 where f fx1; fx2; . . . ::; fxmT ; Aij Ujjxi xj jji
176 neurons, xi.j(1) is the rst layer weight between the input j The coefcient vector k is obtained by solving Eq. (9). An 219
177 and the ith hidden neuron, x1,i(2) is the second layer weight RBF using the aforementioned highly nonlinear functions does 220
178 between the ith hidden neuron and output neuron, bi(1) is a not work well for linear responses. To solve this problem, we 221
179 biased weight for the ith hidden neuron and b1(2) is a biased can augment an RBF by including a polynomial function such 222
180 weight for the output neuron. Feed forward neural networks that. 223
181 propagate data linearly from input to output and they are 224
X
n X
m
182 the most popular and most widely used models in many fx wi ;jjx xi jj cj pj x 10
183 practical applications (Rankovic et al., 2010). In this paper, i1 j1 226
184 LevenbergMarquardt algorithm was used as the training
185 algorithm and log-sigmoidal (logsig) was chosen for the activa- where m is a total number of terms in the polynomial, and c 227
187 A radial basis function network has a feed-forward struc- In this paper, 70% of the total data sets are assigned for 229
188 ture consisting of a single hidden layer for a given number of training, 15% data sets are allocated for testing and last 230
189 locally tuned units which are fully interconnected to an output 15% data sets are assigned for the validation array. The over- 231
190 layer of linear units (Dibike et al., 1999; Mason et al., 1996). all performance of the model was evaluated based on the per- 232
191 Learning in RBF network is carried out in two phases: rst, formances of all three modes. 233
192 for the hidden layer, and then for the output layer. The hidden
193 layer is self-organizing; its parameters depend on the distribu- 2.3. Performance determination parameters 234
194 tion of the inputs, not on the mapping from the input to the
195 output. The output layer, on the other hand, uses supervised In the research training of ANN models of different architec- Q5 235
196 learning to set its parameters. A RBF hidden unit has one tures applied an automatic performance analysis of the net- 236
197 parameter associated with each input unit. These parameters works based on the correlation coefcient (R), mean squared 237
198 w are not weights placed on the input; rather they are the error (MSE) and coefcient of efciency (E) was performed. 238
199 co-ordinates in input space of a point, that is, the center of The R value indicates the strength and direction of a linear 239
Please cite this article in press as: Ahmed, A.A.M. Prediction of dissolved oxygen in Surma River inuenced by biochemical oxygen demand and
Q1 chemical oxygen demand using the articial neural networks (ANNs). Journal of King Saud University Engineering Sciences (2014), http://
dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jksues.2014.05.001
JKSUES 145 No. of Pages 8
26 May 2014
Prediction of dissolved oxygen in Surma River 5
18 Observed Value
16 FFNN-I
Dissolved Oxygen (mg/l)
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Figure 3 The observed and modeled dissolved oxygen values in whole array using feed forward neural network.
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Figure 4 Scatter plot of observed versus modeled dissolved oxygen concentration for feed forward neural network (a) FFNN-I; (b)
FFNN-II.
Please cite this article in press as: Ahmed, A.A.M. Prediction of dissolved oxygen in Surma River inuenced by biochemical oxygen demand and
Q1 chemical oxygen demand using the articial neural networks (ANNs). Journal of King Saud University Engineering Sciences (2014), http://
dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jksues.2014.05.001
JKSUES 145 No. of Pages 8
26 May 2014
6 A.A. Masrur Ahmed
268 forward neural network and radial basis function neural 289
269
PN 2 network have been illustrated in Figs. 3 and 5. However, the 290
tk yk
E 1 Pk1
N 2
13 scatter plot of observed versus modeled dissolved oxygen 291
271 k1 tk z concentration for feed forward neural network and radial basis 292
function neural network is shown in Figs. 4 and 6. 293
272 where, yk and tk denote the network output and measured The model RBFN-I with all the input parameters is found 294
273 value from the kth element; y and z denote their average as the most appropriate model for dissolved oxygen prediction 295
274 respectively, and N represents the number of observations. with high correlation coefcient (R), high coefcient of 296
efciency (E) and low mean squared error (MSE) value. The 297
275 3. Results and discussion respective correlation coefcient for RBFN-I model is 0.904, 298
0.963 and 0.944 for testing, validation and whole array. How- 299
276 The ANN models were trained utilizing different numbers of ever, the MSE and E for the three data sets are 0.465 and 0.905 300
277 neuron in the hidden layer, for training, testing, validation for testing, 1.009 and 0.966 for validation, and 0.654 and 0.936 301
278 and whole array (training + testing + validation) for an input for whole set. The prediction ability of RBFN-I is almost sim- 302
279 combination. The ANN models that had a higher R value were ilar to Ying et al. (2007) who found the correlation coefcient 303
280 tabulated and three performance determination parameters as 0.94 between the measured and modeled DO values and 304
281 were calculated to check the DO prediction capability of two Soyupak et al. (2003) where they found a correlation coef- 305
282 selected ANN models with different network architecture. cient of 0.950 between the measured and modeled variables. 306
283 Among the selected two ANN models, the developed ANN The FFNN-II and RBFN-II models constructed with only 307
284 model with RBFNN simulated the DO concentrations of the BOD showed similar performance for dissolved oxygen predic- 308
285 Surma River more accurately when compared to that with tion with high correlation coefcient and coefcient of 309
286 FFNN architecture. The performance parameters for the best efciency for all arrays (training, testing, validation and whole 310
287 DO forecast ANN models are shown in Table 4. The observed array). The respective correlation coefcient for RBFN-II 311
288 and modeled dissolved oxygen values in whole array using feed model is 0.861, 0.897 and 0.892 for testing, validation and 312
18 Observed Value
RBFN-I
16
RBFN-II
Dissolved Oxygen (mg/l)
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Figure 5 The observed and modeled dissolved oxygen values in whole array using radial basis neural network.
Outputs
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Figure 6 Scatter plot of observed versus modeled dissolved oxygen concentration for radial basis function neural network (a) RBFN-I;
(b) RBFN-II.
Please cite this article in press as: Ahmed, A.A.M. Prediction of dissolved oxygen in Surma River inuenced by biochemical oxygen demand and
Q1 chemical oxygen demand using the articial neural networks (ANNs). Journal of King Saud University Engineering Sciences (2014), http://
dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jksues.2014.05.001
JKSUES 145 No. of Pages 8
26 May 2014
Prediction of dissolved oxygen in Surma River 7
313 whole array accordingly. However, the MSE and E for the two dissolved oxygen concentration for Surma River, Bangladesh. J. 371
314 data sets are 1.181 and 0.846 for testing, 0.942 and 0.855 for Appl. Technol. Environ. Sanitation 3 (3), 135140. 372
315 validation, and 1.19 and 0.892 for whole set. However, another Alam, M.J.B., Muyen, Z., Islam, M.R., Islam, S., Mamun, M., 2007. 373
316 ANN model of feed forward neural network, FFNN-II has Water quality parameters along rivers. Int. J. Environ. Sci. 374
Technol. 4 (1), 159167. 375
317 coefcient of efciency (E) values of 0.938, 0.855 and 0.880
APHA, 1995. Standard methods for the examination of water and 376
318 for testing, validation and whole sets respectively. Moreover, wastewater, 19th ed., American Public Health Association, Wash- 377
319 a high value of MSE has been found for the validation array. ington, DC. 378
320 The results of this study can be compared with Kuo et al. Chapra, S., Pellettier, G., 2003. QUAL2K: A modeling framework for 379
321 (2007) who applied an ANN model for predicting the dissolved simulating river and stream water quality. Documentation and 380
322 oxygen in the Te-Chi reservoir. The correlation coefcients for users manual. Civil and Environmental Engineering Dept., Tufts 381
323 modeled values and observed DO values were 0.75 and 0.72 for University, Medford, MA. Available from: <http://www.epa.gov/ 382
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325 (2009) found coefcient of determination for modeled values Dibike, Y.B., Solomatine, D.P., Abbott, M.B., 1999. On the encap- 384
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J. Hydraulic Res. 37 (2), 147161. 386
327 training, validation and test sets, respectively. They utilized a
Elhatip, H., Komur, M.A., 2008. Evaluation of water quality 387
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Please cite this article in press as: Ahmed, A.A.M. Prediction of dissolved oxygen in Surma River inuenced by biochemical oxygen demand and
Q1 chemical oxygen demand using the articial neural networks (ANNs). Journal of King Saud University Engineering Sciences (2014), http://
dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jksues.2014.05.001
JKSUES 145 No. of Pages 8
26 May 2014
8 A.A. Masrur Ahmed
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Please cite this article in press as: Ahmed, A.A.M. Prediction of dissolved oxygen in Surma River inuenced by biochemical oxygen demand and
Q1 chemical oxygen demand using the articial neural networks (ANNs). Journal of King Saud University Engineering Sciences (2014), http://
dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jksues.2014.05.001