Established Data from NEC NEC's Update @ Oct.

12, 2017
# of Registerred Total # of Polling # of Polling Places Total # of Valid
Voters Places that have Reported Votes Tallied
Bomi 61,171 158 32 8,474
Bong 208,150 502 241 71,655
Gbarpolu 48,669 133 26 7,398
Grand Bassa 145,798 388 78 21,400
Grand Cape Mount 65,800 171 22 5,744
Grand Gedeh 63,495 167 24 5,867
Grand Kru 35,506 99 28 6,845
Lofa 167,555 417 123 35,371
Margibi 154,328 382 107 31,001
Maryland 57,344 156 42 10,747
Montserrado 777,503 1,790 252 75,950
Nimba 279,572 699 94 26,191
River Gee 35,240 95 83 21,212
River Cess 35,600 97 31 7,955
Sinoe 47,952 136 49 13,547
Total 2,183,683 5,390 1,232 349,357
Counties led

Baseline The baseline assumption here is that the parties are going to maintain their perce
Assumption announcement shows that the CDC got 44.4% of the valid votes tallied from 20.3% o
after the votes from all (100%) of the voting centers in BOMI has been tallied. Since t
the case of the CDC BOMI example, this m

B* In order to make the foregoing prediction, I need to estimate the total number of v
translates into, I can form an equation and solve for X, by assuming that the share of
as an example, I say that 20.3% of the total votes in BOMI (I represent the total vote
BOMI), I di

A* Following the results from B* above, I can also predict the voter turnout. This is do
BOMI (61,171) which is already a publicly a

Although the foregoing presentations have some analytical usefulness, assuming th

shares would be assumed based on the next announcements (we hope some trend
Next Steps
s Update @ Oct. 12, 2017 A** B* Share of Announced Valid Votes by Coun
Total # of Invalid % of Polling Places Proj. Voter Proj. Total # of
Votes Tallied Turnout (%) Votes CDC % UP% LP%
426 20.3% 72% 43,943.75 44.4% 33.1% 4.5%
5,896 48.0% 78% 161,537.77 39.4% 34.0% 5.4%
503 19.5% 83% 40,416.65 41.6% 37.4% 3.9%
1,428 20.1% 78% 113,554.67 32.5% 8.3% 48.4%
464 12.9% 73% 48,253.09 46.4% 37.5% 3.1%
288 14.4% 67% 42,828.54 76.1% 12.0% 2.2%
873 28.3% 77% 27,288.64 58.2% 10.8% 9.2%
2,117 29.5% 76% 127,093.46 5.8% 78.1% 8.8%
1,623 28.0% 75% 116,470.73 42.8% 34.6% 6.8%
834 26.9% 75% 43,015.14 36.2% 15.0% 3.7%
2,915 14.1% 72% 560,191.87 50.4% 26.6% 7.2%
2,041 13.4% 75% 209,937.96 7.1% 18.1% 4.4%
1,269 87.4% 73% 25,731.27 60.7% 15.9% 4.5%
544 32.0% 75% 26,593.65 36.1% 13.7% 37.3%
800 36.0% 83% 39,820.24 69.3% 13.1% 1.8%
22,021 22.9% 74% 1,624,778.75 38.8% 28.7% 9.5%
11 1 2

re going to maintain their percentages in the various counties as per what was announced by NEC on Oct. 12, 2017. For instance, the Oct. 1
valid votes tallied from 20.3% of the voting centers in Bomi. Therefore I assume in my baseline that the CDC would get 44.4% of the valid v
n BOMI has been tallied. Since the share (44.4%) is held constant, we can use this baseline to see what number of votes this translates into
f the CDC BOMI example, this means that the CDC is predicted to get 19,551 total votes from BOMI.

estimate the total number of votes per county. Since I know the share of voting centers that have reported, and I know how many votes th
X, by assuming that the share of voting center which results have been tallied is equal to the share of votes that have been tallied. Using B
BOMI (I represent the total votes in BOMI by X) equals 8,900 (8,424 valid votes plus 426 invalid votes). So, to find X (total expected votes fr
BOMI), I divide 8900 by 20.3%. This gives 43,944.

dict the voter turnout. This is done by expressing the expected vote (in the case of BOMI 43,944) by the total number of registerred voters
71) which is already a publicly available information. So, the expected voter turnout for BOMI is 72%.

nalytical usefulness, assuming that the parties would maintain the same share announced in the first result is far from realistic. More realis
cements (we hope some trend would be established). We shall also use expert views about the voting dynamics across the various countie
form the assumptions.
 nounced Valid Votes by County per Party Projected Number of Votes by Country per Party Using Baseline Assump

ANC% MDR% Others % Total CDC % UP% LP% ANC% MDR%

6.9% 0.6% 10.5% 100% 19,511 14,545 1,977 3,032 264
4.8% 1.9% 14.5% 100% 63,646 54,923 8,723 7,754 3,069
5.4% 3.6% 8.1% 100% 16,813 15,116 1,576 2,182 1,455
2.8% 0.6% 7.4% 100% 36,905 9,425 54,960 3,180 681
3.2% 1.7% 8.1% 100% 22,389 18,095 1,496 1,544 820
2.5% 0.9% 6.3% 100% 32,593 5,139 942 1,071 385
6.9% 2.9% 12.0% 100% 15,882 2,947 2,511 1,883 791
2.0% 0.3% 5.0% 100% 7,371 99,260 11,184 2,542 381
7.2% 1.6% 7.0% 100% 49,849 40,299 7,920 8,386 1,864
31.5% 0.9% 12.7% 100% 15,571 6,452 1,592 13,550 387
9.6% 1.4% 4.8% 100% 282,337 149,011 40,334 53,778 7,843
7.9% 52.6% 9.9% 100% 14,906 37,999 9,237 16,585 110,427
5.0% 2.9% 11.0% 100% 15,619 4,091 1,158 1,287 746
3.3% 0.4% 9.2% 100% 9,600 3,643 9,919 878 106
2.6% 1.4% 11.8% 100% 27,595 5,216 717 1,035 557
7.3% 8.0% 7.7% 100% 630,589 466,163 154,247 118,686 129,778
0 1 0 15

2017. For instance, the Oct. 12

would get 44.4% of the valid votes
er of votes this translates into. In

and I know how many votes that

hat have been tallied. Using BOMI
find X (total expected votes from

number of registerred voters in

far from realistic. More realistic

ics across the various counties to
rty Using Baseline Assumption

Others % Total
4,614 43,944
23,423 161,538
3,274 40,417
8,403 113,555
3,909 48,253
2,698 42,829
3,275 27,289
6,355 127,093
8,153 116,471
5,463 43,015
26,889 560,192
20,784 209,938
2,830 25,731
2,447 26,594
4,699 39,820
125,316 1,624,779