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4.2% 1.2%
5% ANNUALLY QUARTERLY
4%
Annual Percent Change,
3%
Chain-type (2009) $
2%
1%
0%
-1%
-2%
-3%
2009 Largest Annual Drop since 1946 (-2.8%)
-4%
2005 2008 2011 2014 Q3-11 Q2-12 Q1-13 Q4-13 Q3-14 Q2-15 Q1-16 Q4-16
SERIES: GDP
SOURCE: US Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
Consumers Driving the Economy
2016: 2.7%; 2017 Q2: 3.3%
ANNUAL PERCENT CHANGE
6%
5% ANNUALLY QUARTERLY
Annual Percent Change
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
-1%
-2%
-3%
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2012 Q2
2012 Q4
2013 Q2
2013 Q4
2014 Q2
2014 Q4
2015 Q2
2015 Q4
2016 Q2
2016 Q4
2017 Q2
SERIES: Personal Consumption
SOURCE: US Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
Confidence? Holding on to Trump Bump
September 2017: 119.8
140
120
100
INDEX, 100=1985
80
60
40
20
2500
Monthly Average
2000
1500
1000
500
0
Mortgage Rates: Surged Post-Election
January 2010 October 05, 2017
6
MONTHLY WEEKLY
5
4 3.81 3.85
3.16 3.18
3
2
FRM
ARM
1
0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% 10.0%
100,000
50,000
-50,000
-100,000
-150,000
-2
-4
-6
-8
Retail
Demand for retail space continues to be affected by the
growth of e-commerce (amazon Prime: 46% US households)
Fundamentals ok for now, but developers concern about
the future
Key Takeaways
Industrial
Demand for industrial space remains strong as online
shopping continues to grow
More supply is needed and developers are optimistic
Multifamily
Sustained job growth continues to fuel housing demand in
the rental market
Rent growth leveling off as more supply come on the market
REALTORS CRE U.S. Outlook
U.S. Economic Outlook
20%
14%
10% 5%
0%
On Prices On Sales
SERIES: 2017 EXPO FUN SURVEY
SOURCE: C.A.R.
Impact of Tax Reform
100 74.5
50 34.8 34.8
0.0
0
Mortgage Interest Property Tax Deduction Mortgage Interest &
Deduction Property Tax Coimbined
400,000 150,000
300,000
100,000
200,000
50,000
100,000
0 0
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
Sales: Stalled with Strong Fundamentals
August 2017 Sales: 427,630 Units, +2.7% YTD, +1.3% YTY
700,000
600,000
Aug-16: Aug-17:
422,190 427,630
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
15%
11.8%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
Avg. year-over-year % chg. = 3%
-15%
Aug-14 Dec-14 Apr-15 Aug-15 Dec-15 Apr-16 Aug-16 Dec-16 Apr-17 Aug-17
$500,000
T: Feb-09
$245,230
$400,000 -59% from
peak
$300,000
$200,000
$100,000
$-
16 15%
14 10%
12 5%
10 0%
8
-5%
6
-10%
4
-15%
2 -11.9%
0
-20%
Jan-15
May-15
Nov-15
Jan-16
May-16
Nov-16
Jan-17
May-17
Mar-15
Jul-15
Sep-15
Mar-16
Jul-16
Sep-16
Mar-17
Jul-17
Jan-05
Jan-07
Jan-09
Jan-11
Jan-13
Jan-15
Jan-17
Sep-05
May-06
Sep-07
May-08
Sep-09
May-10
Sep-11
May-12
Sep-13
May-14
Sep-15
May-16
Note: Unsold Inventory Index represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question. The remaining inventory for the month is defined
as the number of properties that were Active, Pending, and Contingent (when available) and divide the sum by the number of Sold properties for the month in question.
-30%
-29.0%
-40%
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
3.0 2.8
2.0 1.9
1.0
0.0
Note: Unsold Inventory Index represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question. The remaining inventory for the month is defined
as the number of properties that were Active, Pending, and Contingent (when available) and divide the sum by the number of Sold properties for the month in question.
12 11.5
9.7
10
8
6.4
6 4.7 4.9
4.5
4 2.73.1 3.03.7 3.3 3.6 3.6 3.4
2.93.1 2.6 3.0 3.1
2.6
2.6 2.9
2
Aug-17 Aug-16
Turnover Rate Very Low: US & CA
7%
Capital gains hit
6%
5.3% Low property taxes
5%
Low rate on current mortgage
4.6%
4%
Demographic shift
3%
Where can I afford to go?
2%
1%
0%
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
60 57
54 53 52 52
51
50 48 47 47 47 47 46
45 44 44 43 43 43
42
40 39 39 38
40 36 35
33 31
29 28 27
30 27 26 26 25
25
21 21 19
20 17 17 17 16
14
12
10
70%
60%
57%
MEDIAN-PRICED
50%
HOME
40%
30% 29%
20%
10%
0%
2,500,000
7,000,000
2,000,000
6,500,000
1,500,000
6,000,000
1,000,000
5,500,000
500,000
5,000,000 0
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015
SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau, Annual Social and Economic Supplement (ASEC) to the Current Population Survey (CPS)
Downloaded from the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
More Single Family Units Now Rentals
8,000,000 Potentially between 400,000 and 700,000 SF Rentals that Used to be Owner-Occupied
6,919,164
7,000,000 6,527,730
6,000,000
5,000,000
4,000,000
3,000,000 2,674,808
1,940,607
2,000,000
1,000,000
0
SF Owners SF Renters
2000 2005 2010 2015
SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau, Annual Social and Economic Supplement (ASEC) to the Current Population Survey (CPS)
Downloaded from the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
Most Underbuilt Counties in California
40%
32% 33%
30%
Long Run Average = 20%
20%
10%
0%
70% 6
60%
60%
52% 5
50%
4
4.0 4.1
40%
3
30%
2
20%
10% 1
0% 0
2005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017
Southern
Inland Empire LA/OC/SD California
California
% with Multiple
54.8% 62.7% 58.8% 60.4%
Offer
% of Sales Above
24.3% 33.4% 28.5% 32.9%
Asking Price
% with Multiple
58.3% 67.2% 71.6% 73.5% 48.2% 62.7%
Offer
% of Sales
Above 46.2% 32.3% 33.3% 40.0% 22.6% 33.4%
Asking Price
40% 28.5%
30% Other Counties
23.8% 15
30% in CA
20%
20%
10%
10% California 13
0% 0%
SF Bay Area So CA Rest of CA SF Bay Area So CA Rest of CA 0 10 20
% of Sales Above
41% 28.8% 32.9%
Asking Price
Days on Market 10 14 13
35% 32%
First-Time Buyers 24% 54% 22% 30% 30%
30%
25%
20%
15%
Repeat Buyers 17% 59% 24% 10%
5%
0%
Bay Area So CA Rest of CA California
0% 50% 100%
50%
31.7%
30%
20%
10%
0%
9%
The share of international buyers dropped to the lowest level in 9 years
8% 8%
8%
7%
6% 6%
6% 6% 6%
5%
5%
4% 4%
3% 3%
3%
2%
1%
0%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Q. Was the buyer an international buyer a person who was a citizen of
another country who wished to purchase residential real estate in the U.S.?
0%
71%
2016 2017
China (53%) China (31%)
30%
25%
22%
20%
15%
10%
25%
20% 4.1%
15% Flip Rent
10%
2014: 30% 2014: 70%
13.8%
5% 2015: 26% 2015: 74%
2016: 20% 2016: 80%
0%
2017: 24% 2017: 76%
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
$200,000
$200,000
$150,000
$100,000
$50,000
$0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Q. What was the net cash gain or net loss to the seller as a result of this sale?
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
2.1%
0%
Q. What was the net cash gain or net loss to the seller as a result of this sale?
40%
Gen X's 63%
30%
Baby Boomers 60%
20%
10%
Silent
28%
0% Generations
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Within the same county 37% 45% 47% 42% 49% 49% 46% 44% 44% 40% 38%
In another county in
24% 17% 21% 21% 19% 18% 20% 21% 20% 21% 20%
California
In another state 29% 27% 19% 20% 20% 22% 19% 22% 22% 25% 28%
Out of US 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Don't Know/Not sure 9% 10% 12% 16% 10% 10% 15% 13% 13% 13% 14%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
FHA VA
40%
30%
20%
5.8%
10%
14.8%
0%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Q. How did your client find and select you to represent them?
SERIES: 2017 Housing Market Survey
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
Regional Housing Markets
Northern California
20%
80%
Up Down Same/Flat 72%
70%
64% 64%
60%
What will be the biggest challenge for the housing market in 2018?
60%
50%
50%
40% 36%
30%
20%
10% 6% 6%
2%
0%
SFH Resales (000s) 439.8 414.9 382.7 409.4 416.7 421.9 426.2
500
Price (Thousand)
426.2 $400
Units (Thousand)
421.9
400
$300
300
$200
200
$100
100
0 $0
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017p 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017p
$50 -30%
$0 -40%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017p 2018f
Mortagage rate
increase, 10%
Lack of
Lack of inventory,
28%
affordability,
56%
Q2 - What will be the biggest challenge for the housing market in 2017?
2018 Opportunities
Do you have a pet / Do you consider your pet a part of your family
No, its just a (special)
animal, 8%
No I
dont,
37%
Yes I have a
pet, 63%
Yes, my pet is
my family,
92%
28%
16%
13%
No, but I double We have a equal, They complain, but I My pet makes the
down on the treats. deliberative process. try to ignore it. decision for me.
SERIES: 2017 EXPO FUN SURVEY
SOURCE: C.A.R.
Speaking of independence
What about a different kind of Do you pay for their cell phone plan?
animal... Do you live with a
Millennial?
No, they like to
Yes, sigh, I live
with a Millennial,
pretend to be
14%
70%
63%
60%
50%
40%
30%
30%
20%
10% 5% 2%
0%
Unfortunately, I'm No, but I may keep it Yes, I "helped" my Yes, I got married!
happily married. in mind, just to help child or friends to get Thank you Leslie for
the real estate married. the push.
industry.
SERIES: 2017 EXPO FUN SURVEY
SOURCE: C.A.R.
Thank You & Congratulations
Thank You