Documente Academic
Documente Profesional
Documente Cultură
2014
Table of Contents
Introduction ....................................................................................... 1
Economic Benefits of Oil and Natural Gas Drilling and
Production .......................................................................................... 3
State-Level Results................................................................................................ 4
Conclusion .......................................................................................... 9
APPENDICES ..................................................................................... 10
Detailed Sectoral Results for the United States ................................................... 11
Methods Used ......................................................................................................12
About The Perryman Group ................................................................................15
www.perrymangroup.com
Copyright2014
The Economic Benefits of Oil and Natural Gas Production:
An Analysis of Effects on the United States and Major Energy Producing States
Introduction
Theresurgenceoftheoilindustryoverthepastfewyearshasbeendramatic.Production
levelshavereachedtotalsnotseensincethelate1980sandcontinuetoincrease.In
2012,totalUSproductionwasalmost2.4billionbarrels,with2013risingtomorethan
2.7billion.ItappearsthattheUnitedStateswillbetheworldsleadingproducerbythe
endof2014.AlthoughtheUnitedStatesstillreliesonimportstomeetabout40%of
crudeoilneeds,theincreaseindomesticsupplieshashelpedreducedependencyon
foreignoilandimprovetheUStradesituation.
Aprimaryreasonforthisgrowthistechnologicaladvancementsincludinghorizontal
drillingandhydraulicfracturing,whichhaveunlockedpreviouslyunrecoverableoiland
naturalgasreservesinshaleplays.Earlyexperimentsinhydraulicfracturingbeganinthe
1980s,butitwasdecadeslaterbeforethetechniquedeveloped(andpricesincreased)to
thepointofmakingdrillingwithinshaleplayseconomicallyfeasible.Withhorizontal
drillingandbetterexplorationtools,thenationsshaleplayshavebecomeprimary
sourcesofnewproduction.Theseadvanceshavealsoallowedfortherejuvenationof
wellsinolderfields,furtherenhancingactivityintheindustry.Otherfactorsinclude(1)a
pricesituationthatreflectsgrowingworlddemand;(2)alackofleverageinfundingthe
gains,thusprovidinggreaterresiliencetofluctuations;and(3)actualincreasesin
productionfromnewlyavailableresources.
Theoilsurgehasalsobeenimportanttotheeconomicrecoveryfromtherecent
recession.Whilemarketconditionsandpricelevelsarecurrentlylessfavorableto
extensivenaturalgasexploration,thereisnonethelessasignificantlevelofinvestmentin
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The Economic Benefits of Oil and Natural Gas Production:
An Analysis of Effects on the United States and Major Energy Producing States
developingnaturalgasresources.Althoughdirectemploymentintheindustryisasmall
percentageoftotaljobs,theworkisoftenwellpaying.Moreover,therippleeffects
throughtheeconomyofthishighvalueaddedindustryarelarge,especiallyinstates
whichhaveasubstantialconcentrationofsupportservices.
ThePerrymanGroup(TPG)recentlyanalyzedtheeconomicbenefitsofoilandnaturalgas
drillingandexplorationactivityintheUnitedStatesandmajorenergyproducingstates.
Resultsofthisassessmentaresummarizedinthisreport.
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The Economic Benefits of Oil and Natural Gas Production:
An Analysis of Effects on the United States and Major Energy Producing States
Explorationandproductiongeneratesbusinessactivityacrossaspectrumofindustries.
Instateswheretheenergysegmentiswelldeveloped,rippleeffectsareevenlargeras
thenetworkofsuppliersandsupportindustriesareabletomeettheneedsofoilandgas
companies.ThePerrymanGroupfirstestimatedthedirectinvestmentinoilandnatural
gasexplorationandproduction(includingvariousoilfieldsupportactivities),then
quantifiedthetotaleconomicbenefitsofthisactivitywhenmultipliereffectsthroughthe
economyareconsidered.(Formoreinformationregardingthemethodsandtermsused,
seepage8andtheAppendicestothisreport.)
Thetotaleconomicbenefitsofoilandgasexplorationanddevelopmentactivity
(includingmultipliereffects)areestimatedtoincludealmost$1.2trillioningross
producteachyear,aswellasmorethan9.3millionpermanentjobsintheUnited
States.Bybothmeasures,thisactivityrepresentsnearly7%oftheUSeconomy.
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The Economic Benefits of Oil and Natural Gas Production:
An Analysis of Effects on the United States and Major Energy Producing States
ThePerrymanGroupalsofoundthattheeconomicbenefitsofoilandnaturalgas
productionhavemorethandoubledoverthepast10yearsevenafteraccountingfor
theeffectsofinflation.Moreover,thenewjobscreatedbythissectorsincethe
recoveryfromtherecessionbeganareresponsibleforabout30%ofthenational
increase.Theabilitytoproduceoilandgasfromshaleplaysusingadvancedrecovery
methodshasbeenthedrivingforcebehindthisrenaissanceintheUSenergysegment.
StateLevelResults
AnassessmentofseveralmajorenergyproducingstatesindicatesthatTexasrealizesthe
largesteconomicbenefitsbothfromthesubstantialoilandgasreservesinthestateand
thelonghistoryoftheindustryandresultingsupportingsectors.Bycontrast,instates
whereoilproductionhasonlyrecentlybeguntoescalate,suchasNorthDakota,support
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The Economic Benefits of Oil and Natural Gas Production:
An Analysis of Effects on the United States and Major Energy Producing States
industriesarestilldevelopingandrippleeffectsthroughthestateeconomyaresmaller.
Itshouldbenoted,however,thatNorthDakotaseesbenefitsofmorethan100,000jobs
inaneconomywithtotalemploymentofonlyabout500,000.Inthenewlyemerging
areas,overalleconomiceffectscanbeexpectedtoriseovertime.
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The Economic Benefits of Oil and Natural Gas Production:
An Analysis of Effects on the United States and Major Energy Producing States
Texas
Oklahoma
California
Louisiana
Colorado
Ohio
Pennsylvania
New Mexico
Wyoming
North Dakota
Alaska
Utah
$0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 $300 $350 $400 $450 $500
Billions of Dollars
Source: The Perryman Group
Texas
Oklahoma
California
Louisiana
Colorado
Ohio
Pennsylvania
New Mexico
Wyoming
North Dakota
Alaska
Utah
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The Economic Benefits of Oil and Natural Gas Production:
An Analysis of Effects on the United States and Major Energy Producing States
Theseresultsarebasedonestimatesofoilandnaturalgasexplorationactivityandthe
overallsizeoftheindustryandrelateddirectspending.ThePerrymanGroupsimpact
assessmentsystemwasthenusedtoquantifytheassociatedmultipliereffects.Inthis
way,thetotaleconomicbenefitsstemmingfromoilandgasexplorationactivitywere
determined.
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The Economic Benefits of Oil and Natural Gas Production:
An Analysis of Effects on the United States and Major Energy Producing States
ThePerrymanGroupsinputoutputassessmentmodel(theUS
MultiRegionalImpactAssessmentSystem)wasdevelopedbythe
firmover30yearsagoandhasbeenconsistentlymaintainedand
updatedsincethattime.Ithasbeenusedinhundredsofanalyses
forclientsrangingfrommajorcorporationstogovernmentagencies.
Thesystemusesavarietyofdata(fromsurveys,industry
information,andothersources)todescribethevariousgoodsand
services(knownasresourcesorinputs)requiredtoproduceanother
good/service.Thisprocessallowsforestimationofthetotal
economicimpact(includingmultipliereffects)ofoilandgas
explorationandproduction.Thesubmodelsusedinthecurrent
analysisreflectthespecificindustrialcompositionandcharacteristics
oftheUSeconomyandmajorenergyproducingstates.
Thesetotaleconomiceffectsarequantifiedforkeymeasuresof
businessactivity.
Totalexpenditures(ortotalspending)measurethedollars
changinghandsasaresultoftheeconomicstimulus.
Grossproduct(oroutput)isproductionofgoodsand
servicesthatwillcomeaboutineachareaasaresultofthe
activity.Thismeasureisparalleltothegrossdomestic
productnumberscommonlyreportedbyvariousmedia
outletsandisasubsetoftotalexpenditures.
Personalincomeisdollarsthatendupinthehandsof
peopleinthearea;thevastmajorityofthisaggregate
derivesfromtheearningsofemployees,butpaymentssuch
asinterestandrentsarealsoincluded.
Jobgainsareexpressedaspermanentjobssincethe
industrywillhaveongoingannualeffects.
Monetaryvalueswerequantifiedonaconstant(2014)basis.See
theAppendicesformoreinformation.
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The Economic Benefits of Oil and Natural Gas Production:
An Analysis of Effects on the United States and Major Energy Producing States
Conclusion
Investmentsinoilandgasexplorationandproductiongeneratesubstantialeconomic
gains,aswellasotherbenefitssuchasincreasedenergyindependence.ThePerryman
Groupestimatesthattheindustryasawholegeneratesaneconomicstimulusofalmost
$1.2trillioningrossproducteachyear,aswellasmorethan9.3millionpermanentjobs
acrossthenation.
Threeprimaryfactorsdeterminefutureoilandgasproduction:prices,geology,andthe
technologyavailableforexplorationandrecovery.Technologyhasalreadyplayeda
majorroleinincreasedproduction,withthedevelopmentofhydraulicfracturingand
otherinnovativerecoverymethodsunlockingoilandnaturalgasfromshaleplays.While
changingmarketconditionswillleadtocyclesintheindustry,theoilandgasindustrywill
beadriverofsubstantialeconomicactivityformanyyearstocome.
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The Economic Benefits of Oil and Natural Gas Production:
An Analysis of Effects on the United States and Major Energy Producing States
APPENDICES
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The Economic Benefits of Oil and Natural Gas Production:
An Analysis of Effects on the United States and Major Energy Producing States
DetailedSectoralResultsfortheUnitedStates
EstimatedCurrentAnnualImpact(asof2014)ofOilandNaturalGasProduction
onBusinessActivityintheUS
DetailedIndustrialCategory
(Permanent
Total Expenditures Gross Product Personal Income
Jobs)
Agriculture $31,766,471,741 $9,606,696,326 $6,211,932,184 93,415
Mining $1,574,739,913,297 $358,622,309,964 $177,214,028,901 1,046,790
Construction $124,245,671,237 $67,053,527,450 $55,256,283,456 743,808
Nondurable
Manufacturing $368,651,619,937 $97,100,227,554 $49,888,563,606 761,838
Durable
Manufacturing $128,028,391,737 $49,575,257,078 $32,923,226,572 433,803
Transportation
and Utilities $199,373,164,178 $70,566,783,937 $39,656,131,456 398,652
Information $37,862,452,498 $23,299,764,975 $10,045,497,416 88,991
Wholesale Trade $71,833,587,691 $48,554,487,588 $27,996,948,815 298,890
Retail Trade
(including
Restaurants) $242,646,639,893 $180,666,672,006 $104,757,309,511 3,100,906
FIRE $387,828,774,400 $125,739,379,138 $39,072,063,064 373,363
Business
Services $81,588,918,620 $47,852,880,844 $39,035,686,377 453,382
Health Services $54,482,396,231 $38,074,616,941 $32,192,441,286 507,487
Other Services $107,962,047,650 $54,591,073,685 $44,061,285,925 1,011,155
TOTAL $3,411,010,049,109 $1,171,303,677,484 $658,311,398,569 9,312,478
Source: US Multi-Regional Impact Assessment System, The Perryman Group
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The Economic Benefits of Oil and Natural Gas Production:
An Analysis of Effects on the United States and Major Energy Producing States
MethodsUsed
Thebasicmodelingtechniqueemployedinthisstudyisknownasdynamicinputoutputanalysis.This
methodologyessentiallyusesextensivesurveydata,industryinformation,andavarietyofcorroborative
sourcematerialstocreateamatrixdescribingthevariousgoodsandservices(knownasresourcesor
inputs)requiredtoproduceoneunit(adollarsworth)ofoutputforagivensector.Oncethebase
informationiscompiled,itcanbemathematicallysimulatedtogenerateevaluationsofthemagnitudeof
successiveroundsofactivityinvolvedintheoverallproductionprocess.
Therearetwoessentialstepsinconductinganinputoutputanalysisoncethesystemisoperational.The
firstmajorendeavoristoaccuratelydefinethelevelsofdirectactivitytobeevaluated;thisprocesswas
describedwithinthereport.Inthecaseofaprospectiveevaluation,itisnecessarytofirstcalculate
reasonableestimatesofthedirectactivity.Theprocessusedtodeterminetheinputinformationwas
describedwithinthereport.
Thesecondmajorphaseoftheanalysisisthesimulationoftheinputoutputsystemtomeasureoverall
economiceffectsoftheoilandgasrelatedstimulus.Thepresentstudywasconductedwithinthecontext
oftheUSMultiRegionalImpactAssessmentSystem(USMRIAS)whichwasdevelopedandismaintained
byThePerrymanGroup.Thismodelhasbeenusedinhundredsofdiverseapplicationsacrossthe
countryandhasanexcellentreputationforaccuracyandcredibility.Thesystemsusedinthecurrent
simulationsreflecttheuniqueindustrialstructuresoftheeconomiesoftheUnitedStatesandeachstate
analyzed.
TheUSMRIASissomewhatsimilarinformattotheInputOutputModeloftheUnitedStatesandthe
RegionalInputOutputModelingSystem,bothofwhicharemaintainedbytheUSDepartmentof
Commerce.ThemodeldevelopedbyTPG,however,incorporatesseveralimportantenhancementsand
refinements.Specifically,theexpandedsystemincludes(1)comprehensive500sectorcoverageforany
county,multicounty,orurbanregion;(2)calculationofbothtotalexpendituresandvalueaddedby
industryandregion;(3)directestimationofexpendituresformultiplebasicinputchoices(expenditures,
output,income,oremployment);(4)extensiveparameterlocalization;(5)priceadjustmentsforrealand
nominalassessmentsbysectorsandareas;(6)measurementoftheinducedimpactsassociatedwith
payrollsandconsumerspending;(7)embeddedmodulestoestimatemultisectoraldirectspending
effects;(8)estimationofretailspendingactivitybyconsumers;and(9)comprehensivelinkageand
integrationcapabilitieswithawidevarietyofeconometric,realestate,occupational,andfiscalimpact
models.Moreover,themodelusesspecificlocaltaxingpatternstoestimatethefiscaleffectsofactivity
onadetailedsectoralbasis.Themodelsusedforthepresentinvestigationhavebeenthoroughlytested
forreasonablenessandhistoricalreliability.
Theimpactassessment(inputoutput)processessentiallyestimatestheamountsofalltypesofgoods
andservicesrequiredtoproduceoneunit(adollarsworth)ofaspecifictypeofoutput.Forpurposesof
illustratingthenatureofthesystem,itisusefultothinkofinputsandoutputsindollar(ratherthan
physical)terms.Asanexample,theconstructionofanewbuildingwillrequirespecificdollaramountsof
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The Economic Benefits of Oil and Natural Gas Production:
An Analysis of Effects on the United States and Major Energy Producing States
lumber,glass,concrete,handtools,architecturalservices,interiordesignservices,paint,plumbing,and
numerousotherelements.Eachofthesesuppliersmust,inturn,purchaseadditionaldollaramountsof
inputs.Thisprocesscontinuesthroughmultipleroundsofproduction,thusgeneratingsubsequent
incrementstobusinessactivity.Theinitialprocessofbuildingthefacilityisknownasthedirecteffect.
Theensuingtransactionsintheoutputchainconstitutetheindirecteffect.
Anotherpatternthatarisesinresponsetoanydirecteconomicactivitycomesfromthepayrolldollars
receivedbyemployeesateachstageoftheproductioncycle.Asworkersarecompensated,theyuse
someoftheirincomefortaxes,savings,andpurchasesfromexternalmarkets.Asubstantialportion,
however,isspentlocallyonfood,clothing,healthcareservices,utilities,housing,recreation,andother
items.TypicalpurchasingpatternsintherelevantareasareobtainedfromtheACCRACostofLiving
Index,aprivatelycompiledinterregionalmeasurewhichhasbeenwidelyusedforseveraldecades,and
theConsumerExpenditureSurveyoftheUSDepartmentofLabor.Theseinitialoutlaysbyarearesidents
generatefurthersecondaryactivityaslocalprovidersacquireinputstomeetthisconsumerdemand.
Theseconsumerspendingimpactsareknownastheinducedeffect.TheUSMRIASisdesignedtoprovide
realistic,yetconservative,estimatesofthesephenomena.
SourcesforinformationusedinthisprocessincludetheBureauoftheCensus,theBureauofLabor
Statistics,theRegionalEconomicInformationSystemoftheUSDepartmentofCommerce,andother
publicandprivatesources.ThepricingdataarecompiledfromtheUSDepartmentofLaborandtheUS
DepartmentofCommerce.Theverificationandtestingproceduresmakeuseofextensivepublicand
privatesources.
Impactsweremeasuredinconstant2014dollarstoeliminatetheeffectsofinflation.Notethattotals
maynotaddduetorounding.
TheUSMRIASgeneratesestimatesoftheeffectsonseveralmeasuresofbusinessactivity.Themost
comprehensivemeasureofeconomicactivityusedinthisstudyisTotalExpenditures.Thismeasure
incorporateseverydollarthatchangeshandsinanytransaction.Forexample,supposeafarmersells
wheattoamillerfor$0.50;themillerthensellsflourtoabakerfor$0.75;thebaker,inturn,sellsbread
toacustomerfor$1.25.TheTotalExpendituresrecordedinthisinstancewouldbe$2.50,thatis,$0.50+
$0.75+$1.25.Thismeasureisquitebroad,butisusefulinthat(1)itreflectstheoverallinterplayofall
industriesintheeconomy,and(2)somekeyfiscalvariablessuchassalestaxesarelinkedtoaggregate
spending.
AsecondmeasureofbusinessactivityfrequentlyemployedinthisanalysisisthatofGrossProduct.This
indicatorrepresentstheregionalequivalentofGrossDomesticProduct,themostcommonlyreported
statisticregardingnationaleconomicperformance.Inotherwords,theGrossProductofTexasisthe
amountofUSoutputthatisproducedinthatstate;itisdefinedasthevalueofallfinalgoodsproducedin
agivenregionforaspecificperiodoftime.Stateddifferently,itcapturestheamountofvalueadded
(grossareaproduct)overintermediategoodsandservicesateachstageoftheproductionprocess,that
is,iteliminatesthedoublecountingintheTotalExpendituresconcept.Usingtheexampleabove,the
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The Economic Benefits of Oil and Natural Gas Production:
An Analysis of Effects on the United States and Major Energy Producing States
GrossProductis$1.25(thevalueofthebread)ratherthan$2.50.Alternatively,itmaybeviewedasthe
sumofthevalueaddedbythefarmer,$0.50;themiller,$0.25($0.75$0.50);andthebaker,$0.50
($1.25$0.75).Thetotalvalueaddedis,therefore,$1.25,whichisequivalenttothefinalvalueofthe
bread.Inmanyindustries,theprimarycomponentofvalueaddedisthewageandsalarypaymentsto
employees.
ThethirdgaugeofeconomicactivityusedinthisevaluationisPersonalIncome.Asthenameimplies,
PersonalIncomeissimplytheincomereceivedbyindividuals,whetherintheformofwages,salaries,
interest,dividends,proprietorsprofits,orothersources.Itmaythusbeviewedasthesegmentof
overallimpactswhichflowsdirectlytothecitizenry.
Thefourthmeasure,RetailSales,representsthecomponentofTotalExpenditureswhichoccursinretail
outlets(generalmerchandisestores,automobiledealersandservicestations,buildingmaterialsstores,
foodstores,drugstores,restaurants,andsoforth).RetailSalesisacommonlyusedmeasureofconsumer
activity.
ThefinalaggregatesusedarePermanentJobsandPersonYearsofEmployment.ThePersonYearsof
Employmentmeasurerevealsthefulltimeequivalentjobsgeneratedbyanactivity.Itshouldbenoted
that,unlikethedollarvaluesdescribedabove,PermanentJobsisastockratherthanaflow.Inother
words,ifanareaproduces$1millioninoutputin2010and$1millionin2011,itisappropriatetosaythat
$2millionwasachievedinthe20102011period.Ifthesameareahas100peopleworkingin2010and
100in2011,itonlyhas100PermanentJobs.Whenaflowofjobsismeasured,suchasinaconstruction
projectoracumulativeassessmentovermultipleyears,itisappropriatetomeasureemploymentin
PersonYears(apersonworkingforayear).ThisconceptisdistinctfromPermanentJobs,which
anticipatesthattherelevantpositionswillbemaintainedonacontinuingbasis.
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The Economic Benefits of Oil and Natural Gas Production:
An Analysis of Effects on the United States and Major Energy Producing States
AboutThePerrymanGroup
ThisstudywaspreparedasapublicservicebyThePerrymanGroup(TPG),aneconomicresearchand
analysisfirmbasedinWaco,Texas.Thefirmhasmorethan30yearsofexperienceinassessingthe
economicimpactofcorporateexpansions,regulatorychanges,realestatedevelopments,publicpolicy
initiatives,andmyriadotherfactorsaffectingbusinessactivity.TPGhasconductedhundredsofimpact
analysesforlocalareas,regions,andstatesthroughouttheUnitedStates.Impactstudieshavebeen
performedforhundredsofclientsincludingmanyofthelargestcorporationsintheworld,governmental
entitiesatalllevels,educationalinstitutions,majorhealthcaresystems,utilities,andeconomic
developmentorganizations.
Dr.M.RayPerryman,founderandPresidentofthefirm,developedtheUSMultiRegionalImpact
AssessmentSystem(USMRIASusedinthisstudy)intheearly1980sandhasconsistentlymaintained,
expanded,andupdateditsincethattime.Themodelhasbeenusedinhundredsofdiverseapplications
andhasanexcellentreputationforreliability.
Thefirmhasalsoconductednumerousinvestigationsrelatedtotheoilandgasindustry.Theseanalyses
includeanassessmentoftheeffectsofoffshoredrillingfortheUSDepartmentoftheInterior,several
studiesofspecificproductionareas,majorpipelineandrefineryinvestments,publicpolicystudiesrelated
tooilandgasregulation,andprojectionsofnaturalgaspricesandoutput.Informationhasbeen
preparedfortheInterstateOilCompactCommission,theUSDepartmentofEnergy,theTexasRailroad
Commission,andnumerouslegislativecommitteesregardingenergypolicy.
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