08 July, 2011

Some Real Nonsense on why the Americans will be defeated in Afghanistan

Naeem Khalid Lodhi(Lt Gen Retd) is entirely wrong about US trying to give a lead role to India.
Out of more than 3000 international solicitations (bids) in Afghanistan Pakistani companies could take part in not more than 50 because they did not have 2 % bid
security money .The US could not give a lead role to India in open international biddings . On the other hand it was good Indian policy in giving indian companies support
in arranging bid security which helped India .Turkish and Chinese governments also arranged bid security for private companies.
More than 60 % of contracts in Afghanistan were bagged by US ,Turkish ,Lebanese and Chinese companies and Indians certainly did not have a lead role in contracts.
I was consultant with two of Pakistans largest construction companies in Afghanistan and got one of them registered in Afghanistan.Both could not take part in any of
bids ( and we prepared 11 bids) because they did not have cash flow to arrange 2 % bid security.

In an Asian Bank project Gereshk Power project in heart of Taliban territory only one company took part and will get the project most likely .This was an Indian
company. What was stopping a Pakistani company from taking part in this bid ?
Pakistan is regarded as the most serious existential threat by Afghanistans 45 % non Pashtuns so the premise of the general about Pashtuns being anti US may be true
but not the non Pashtuns who view the US as a saviour.
At least half of Afghanistans population regards the USA as a saviour from the primitive Taliban who were overwhelmingly supported by Pakistan
The right solution is to partition Afghanistan and retain Bagram and Shindand as permanent bases.
As far as the US logistics contracts are being announced this appears to be the most likely US policy.The Obama pull out plan is an election strategy and the US intends
to stay in Afghanistan , at least North Afghanistan which is entirely feasible.
Iran despite being anti US successfully linked Mashhad with Herat.Uzbekistan kicked out the US from Khanabad base but successfully prevailed with Asian Development
Bank to link Termez with Mazar by rail.
About Balochistan there is no doubt that the insurgency is indigenous and it appears that the US wants an independent Balochistan .One cannot rule this out . Countries
are always created with asssistance of state actors.

The Billion dollar question is that Pakistani government is secretly supporting Taliban fighting the US Army in Afghanistan and also getting aid from the USA to fight
terrorism , why the hell should not the US follow a strategy of playing a similar double game with Pakistan ?
Agha H Amin

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LINK:http://pakpotpourri2.wordpress.com/2011/07/06/why-americans-will-be-defeated-in-afghanistan/

Why Americans Will Be Defeated In Afghanistan ?

This is a Pakpotpourri Exclusive

By: Naeem Khalid Lodhi(Lt Gen Retd)

1. This is Not an Astrological Prediction. I would not stick my neck out teasing a super power, or Pakistani establishment, who firmly believe a victorious future for the coalition forces in Afghanistan, as we all have a piece of cake in
it. This is rather a friendly discourse for the FRIENDS, specially the American Public and Americanized, modernized, forward looking thin elite in Af-Pak, to enable them know the facts and the direction of the flow of history. I don't even
expect the readers to agree with me, rather my conclusions may be totally dismissed. But what I would expect everyone to kindly challenge my premises and replace them with alternative views.
2. Premise No 1 (Huge Difference in Incentives to Fight ) . Afghan fighters are fighting for the freedom of their country against (as per their perception) occupation forces. For them it is a struggle for their survival. Coalition forces are
here to safeguard the peripheral or even important interests of their respective countries, but definitely not an interest as vital as survival. Now it may be argued that a(technologically, economically and diplomatically) strong nation with
lower level of incentive can overcome a poorly equipped and organized people with high incentives and ideals ! Without going into the details of an incentive-capacity matrix, let us move further.
3. Premise No 2 (Democratic Versus Tribal Society). Tribal societies by nature are stubborn and non compromising. They also have a very high pain threshold and are capable of making unprecedented sacrifices even to the point of
accepting extinction. On the contrary democratic societies are pliable, soft, compromising , leaning towards material gains and comforts. Their sense of honor and dignity is very different. They can take 'small defeats' for the overall
betterment of 'mankind'. Democracies also have an ability to create faade of success to cover their failures. Thus, whereas Afghan Fighters have no space and philosophy to exit, our FRIENDS have an elaborate EXIT STRATEGY.
4. Premise No 3 (History). Do I need to explain this factor ?
5. Premise No 4 (Strategic Mistakes/Compulsions)
a. Accepting and abetting a corrupt regime in Kabul.
b. Composing an ethnically imbalanced Afghan Army and Police.
c. Antagonizing Pakistan by allowing insurgency in Balochistan and trying to give a lead role to India. Also pushing Pakistan to do that is not in their long term interest.
6. What Has Future in Store ? If hundred thousand coalition troops could not control Afghanistan, 90,000 will definitely not suffice and what to say of 65,000. US can only linger on and try expensive face saving , or else leave, creating
a vacuum resulting in a long civil strife in Afghanistan. They want something in between! That is possible only if they understand the premises given above and are willing to correct the policy and the strategy. A retired General from a
Third World can only do this much to help them !