Documente Academic
Documente Profesional
Documente Cultură
2015
Dynamic Reservoir
Simulation of the Alwyn
TM
Field using ECLIPSE
June 2015
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
This project proposes an optimized development plan for production of the Alwyn North reservoir
through the maximization of total oil production at minimum cost per barrel. A black oil model was
simulated using Eclipse for the determination of the field oil recovery, among other parameters such as
field oil production rate and field water cut, of four development scenarios: natural depletion, water
injection, gas injection and water-alternating-gas injection. Each development scenario was optimized for
number, location, completion and geometry of production and injection wells as applicable.
Natural depletion was simulated by depleting the reservoir to a bottom-hole pressure limit 0f 100 bars
using four already-drilled wells. The field oil recovery was 30 % and the duration of the production
plateau at 4200m3 was 6 years.
Water injection was simulated injecting water as a secondary recovery mechanism after depleting the
reservoir to a bottom-hole flowing pressure of around 260 bars. Two additional production wells and four
additional injection wells were drilled to give maximum results with this scheme. The oil recovery thus
increased from 30% to about 53% with the production plateau sustained for 3.9 years albeit at a higher
plateau rate of 7200m3
Gas injection was proposed to reduce the high water cut levels associated with water injection by
injecting gas into the reservoir using the same water injection wells. The field oil recovery reduced to
42%.
The Water-alternating gas scheme, using the same injectors and producers as in water injection, gave a
field oil recovery of about 555 with a production plateau sustained for 4.2 years.
Water Injection and Water-alternating Gas stood out clearly in terms of profitability, internal rate of return
and pay-back time. . Water Injection was the best performer with a pay-back time, internal rate of return
and profitability index of 1.2 years, 90% and 3.26. Recommendation on best production scheme was
proposed based on technical criteria, environmental consideration and comparison of economic
parameters.
This project is dedicated to Mrs Elizabeth Nneka Nwosu who departed this earth
on 5th, June 2015. May her soul rest in perfect peace.
Mr Soma Sakthikhumar also deserves a worthy mention for being patient enough
to impart the desired knowledge to us.
Picarq Corporation, Total Nigeria and Institute of Petroleum Studies are also
appreciated for putting the necessary logistics, facilities and finance in place to
make this project a success.
INTRODUCTION
1.1 Purpose of study
To determine the optimum field development plan for the Alwyn North Field
(Brent East Reservoir) in terms of recovery and economics, using Eclipse reservoir
simulator.1.2 Scope of Study
This study was limited to the Brent East panel of the Alwyn North Field. The
reservoir model focused on the Ness 2 and Tarbert 1, 2 and 3 units because of the
small oil content in Ness 1.
Black Oil PVT representation was used in this study. The drive mechanisms were
determined using material balance. Annual production was set at 15% of ultimate
reserves.
The following cases were examined:
1. Natural depletion with Flowing well pressure limit of 100bars
2. Natural depletion up to a reservoir pressure 290bars then introduction of
Water injection as secondary recovery process
3. Natural depletion to a reservoir pressure 350bars then introduction of Gas
injection as secondary recovery process
4. Natural depletion to a reservoir pressure 350bars then introduction of
Water injection as secondary recovery process for 4years followed by an alternate
gas injection.
1.3.4.2 Tectonics
Several seismic data acquisition programs were carried out: 2D seismic in 1974
and 1977, and 3D in 1980/81. Seismic data analysis indicates that the oil bearing
sands are controlled on one hand by normal sealing faults with a general North-
South direction, on the other hand by a major unconformity at the base of
Cretaceous. This unconformity is related to erosion of the Brent formation in the
eastern part of ALWYN North field.
Following the seismic interpretation, ALWYN North field was divided into the
following panels:
Brent North.
Brent Northwest.
Brent Southwest.
Brent East.
Statfjord
Triassic
.
1.3.4.3 Sedimentology
The Brent group is divided into three main units: the Lower Brent (Broom,
Rannoch and Etive formations), the Middle Brent (Ness formations), and the
Upper Brent (Tarbert formations). The last two are the only oil-bearing
formations in the Brent East panel.
The Lower Brent formation was deposited in a shoreface (Rannoch) to
coastal barrier (Etive) environment. The clastic reservoir is made of
transgressive sandstone (Broom) and prograding sandstones (Rannoch
and Etive). Thus, the petrophysical properties range from low to medium
permeability. This unit does not contain any oil in the Brent East reservoir.
The Middle Brent formation was deposited in a deltaic to alluvial plain
(Ness 1) and lagoon to lower delta plain (Ness 2) environment. Thus,
sandstones are inter bedded with clay and coal. In general, Ness 1 unit has
b. Based on the results of the first step, different production schemes should
were defined: Natural depletion, water injection, gas injection. Each scenario
was reported in detail with all relevant information, assumptions and selected
NWOSU, DIXON 20 IJEH, ISIJOKELU
options. The annual production plateau was estimated to be around 15% of
EUR. The production profiles were evaluated over 15 years.
c. 60% of EUR must be produced at plateau rate.
Due to a sketchy knowledge of the Brent East reservoir at the beginning of the
study, a Black Oil model was designed with rectangular cells with 36 cells along
the x-direction and 51 cells along the y-direction. The geometry definition is
Table 1.1: Rock Typing and Layers representing the Tarbert and Ness
This model will only include the oil bearing sands from the Tarbert (1, 2 &
3) and Ness (1 & 2) formations. Thus, in this study, the reservoir model has 17
layers:
3 in Tarbert 3
2 in Tarbert 2
There are three equilibration regions defined in the EQUNUM keyword in the
Regions section. However, there is no evidence of compartmentalization, all the
regions have the same water-oil contact (WOC) and pressure regime.
Initial pressure of the reservoir is 446 bar and saturation pressure is 258 bar. The
reservoir petro- physical properties (porosity, permeability) were also scaled up.
The property modeling was done as follows:
Tarbert and Ness shallow marine sheet flood sandstone: Determine
modelling with trend surface control maps
Ness: Object modelling floodplain & lagoonal back barrier lobes
Porosity: Depth and facies trends incorporated
Permeability: Calibrated with core and DST Data
Properties Value
Initial Reservoir Pressure (Pi) 446 Bar
Temperature (T) 110 oC
Saturation Pressure (Psat) 258 Bar
GOR 206.8974 v/v
Formation factor, Bo@ Pi 1.6038
OOIIP 35.68MMm3
(sm3)
The different secondary production schemes used were: Natural depletion, water
injection, gas injection as well as Simultaneous Water Gas Injection (WAG).
Each case is described in this chapter using both excel calculation and eclipse to
validate. The annual production plateau estimate is around 15% of EUR. The
production profiles were evaluated over a period of 15 years.
Each case was implemented in the numerical reservoir model. For primary
method, production was optimized by investigating the best number of wells.
For secondary method, production was optimized by investigating the best
number of producers and injectors to meet the target production.
2.1 Constraints
Assumptions
1. The Petro-physical and PVT Properties of both rock types are assumed to be
similar.
2. Vertical Sweep Efficiency, Ev is assumed to be 0.7 for all regions.
Considering that for the development field case we don't have any production
data, to estimate productivity index (average value between Pi and Pmin):
--------------------------------------------------2.3
Where,
= 0.0086.2 = 0.0536 ___metric units
= 0.0086.2 = 0.0536 ___metric units
Well Potential =
----------------------------------------------2.4
Assuming EUR = 25%
Hence,
Minimum number of wells =
i. Tarbert Region:
Boi = Bo @ 446 = 1.6038
Bo @ 280 = 1.6737
Estimation of the above parameters and final EUR for NATURAL DEPLETION
case are presented below:
Table 2.2: Analytical solution for Recovery by Natural Depletion Drive
-------------------------------------------2.10
Where,
Ed = f(primary depletion, krw & kro, o & w)
Ea = f(mobility ratio, pattern, directional permeability, pressure
distribution, cumulative injection & operations)
Ev = f(rock property variation between different flow units,fluid density), Ev =
0.7(assumption)
i. Tarbert Region:
Evaluation of Ea
Ea can be gotten from the graph as shown below:
Next, the Reciprocal Mobility Ratio (inverse of MR) is calculated and the areal
sweep efficiency (EA) corresponding to this value is read off the Reciprocal
Mobility Ratio Chart.
Evaluation of Ed
Ed is calculated from a plot of fractional flow, fw versus water saturation, Sw.
This plot shows the fractional flow of water when injected into the reservoir to
displace oil. The plots are different for each rock type.
-------------------------------------------------------------2.12
0.5 Tarbert
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 Swm 0.8 1 1.2
Sw
Fig2.2: Fractional Flow curve for the Tarbert Region
As shown above,
Swc = 0.15, Swm = 0.71
Therefore, the drainage efficiency at Break-through (BT) is obtained from
equation 2.12;
Evaluation of Ea
EA is the same as obtained for Tarbert since both rock types contain the same
reservoir fluid.
Evaluation of Ed:
Plot of fw vs Sw is generated using corresponding Relative Permeability
(Imbibition) data
Swm
As shown above,
Swc = 0.30, Swm = 0.66
Therefore, the drainage efficiency at Break-through (BT) is obtained from
equation 2.12;
Recovery = (0.66-0.30)/(1-0.30) = 0.51 = 51%
R = 0.51*0.7*0.98 = 0.35
------------------------2.13
Therefore,
Table 2.6 shows a section of an MS Excel file that contains calculations for the
total oil that can be produced by water injection.
From the table above, the total oil recovery from Tarbert and Ness by natural
depletion and water injection is 4.49E+06 Sm3 with a Global percent recovery of
51%.
----------------------------------------------------------2.14
Where,
Kro = relative permeability of oil in the presence of water
Bo = oil formation volume factor
o = viscosity of oil
Qo @ 280bars
Bo = 1.6737
o = 0.2829
Kro = 0.8
Therefore,
=
Implication:
We need to drill at least 5 producer wells for optimal reservoir exploitation by
Natural Depletion.
Secondary oil recovery by water injection is usually incorporated in the field life
of a reservoir. Hence, optimum number of wells for increased recovery by water
injection was also calculated. Because of thermal cracks induced by injecting
cold North Sea water into the hot reservoir, a skin of -4 is expected for a water
injection case.
The most efficient way to determine the amount of Water for injection is to
calculate the amount of water required to achieve zero-net-voidage by applying
the VOIDAGE REPLACEMENT PRINCIPLE.
Field oil production rate was previously determined as 7478 Sm3/day. We shall
find the equivalent reservoir oil volume. This volume is equal to reservoir water
volume for zero-net-voidage.
Subsequently, we determine the surface equivalent of this reservoir water which
is calculated as:
i. Tarbert Region
The total recovery possible during a gas injection process can be obtained from
equation 2.15
---------------------------------------------------------------2.15
Recall that Equation 2.10 for Recovery Factor with all parameters defined as
previously is:
Evaluation of EA:
The Mobility Ratio is first obtained, Reciprocal Mobility ratio estimated, and
traced up to the corresponding gas cut curve to read off EA =0.74 (See Table
2.8).
Evaluation of ED:
As with the water injection case, plot varies for the different rock types as
presented below. Because the reservoir is predominantly water-wet, Gas
From the graph, the Sgf and Sgm as shown on the chart are determined.
Sgm = 0.25 , Sgc 0.0
Therefore, the drainage efficiency at Break-through (BT) is obtained as follows;
EV = 0.7 (assumption)
Applying Equation 2.10,
Recovery of oil from gas injection is shown in the Table 2.8 below:
As shown in the table above, total oil produced from Tarbert due to gas injection
is 5,219,682.323 Sm3 with a per cent recovery of 14.49 %.
Total oil from Tarbert from both natural depletion and gas injection is therefore,
6,978,338.529 Sm3 with a per cent recovery of 19 %.
Natural Depletion
Fig 3.2: FOPR, FOPT and FOE as a function of time for th e 4-well Natural
Depletion case
NWOSU, DIXON 50 IJEH, ISIJOKELU
The figure above indicates a maximum oil recovery of 22% for this natural
depletion case. Also, the plateau production period peaks for only five years and
then declines to zero in seven years. Hence, natural depletion can neither
sustain production for the 15 years proposed for the project nor can recoveries
are maximized.
Further, a disparity was observed between the calculated and simulated value of
the maximum recovery. The recovery from the analytical calculations was 6%
while the recovery from the numerical simulation was 22%. This suggests that
there is a nearby aquifer that provided pressure support to the reservoir
Fig 3.3: Oil Production Rate as a Function of Time from Wells PA2, PA1, PN2
and PN1
From an analysis of the figure above, it was observed that well PA2 contributed
poorly to the total field production. This could be due to any or a combination
of the following reasons:
Proximity to a fault,
Well PA2 can either be shut off or converted into an injection well since it is a
poor producer. The latter was deemed a better economic decision as it ensured
the continuous use of the well to add value to the field. Hence, subsequent
simulations for the natural depletion case were done with PA2 shut while new
wells were drilled and brought on stream.
Fig 3.4: Comparing the Field Recovery Effi ciency and Field Plateau
Production Rate for both cases
Fig 3.5: Comparing the Field Pressure and Total Field Production Volume for
both cases
By increasing the critical gas saturation to 10%, the field total production
increased from 8MMm3 to 9MMm3 and an additional year was required for the
reservoir to deplete to the bottom hole flowing pressure limit of 100bars.
As with the previous graphs, the new case gave better results. In contrast with
the previous case, an extra year was required for the field water cut to attain its
maximum value and an additional 18 months was required for the field gas-oil
ratio to attain its peak. From the results above, it can be confidently inferred
that recovery is improved when dissolved gases stay longer in solution as gas
mobility is delayed to obtain better oil recoveries. Hence, subsequent simulation
cases will be done with the critical gas saturation set to 10%.
Fig 3.8: Natural Depletion with 5 Producers: FOE, FOPT and FOPR as a
function of time
For the 5-well case, FOPR peaked for 6 years in contrast with the 4-well case in
which FOPR peaked for only 5 years. Field Oil Recovery also increased from 26%
to 30%.
Fig 3.10: Well by Well Analysis: Individual Oil Well Production Rate as a
function of time
The oil recovery obtained from the different simulation runs is shown on
the bar chart displayed above. EUR from the natural depletion varied from 20%
to about 30%. The highest recovery (30%) was obtained by depleting the
reservoir naturally with 7 wells while shutting well A2. The low recovery from
this type of reservoirs suggests that large quantities of oil remain in the reservoir
and the reservoir pressure dropped very much for this low recovery. This
naturally depleted reservoir will be considered a good candidate for secondary
recovery applications such as water injection as well as gas.
Reservoir pressure:
Water production:
There was considerable water production with the oil during the entire
producing life of the reservoir. This is due to the presence of an active water
drive.
Gas-oil ratio:
In this water injection simulation case, the desire was to maintain the average
reservoir pressure at 290 bars. Hence, the field was naturally depleted from 490
bars to 290 bars and water injection was initiated at this instance. Well PA2, the
poor producer well, was converted to an injector well. Four additional wells were
then drilled to serve as injection wells.
Due to the fact that oil could be recovered as a result of the water injection
sweep, two extra producer wells were drilled. This gave a total of 7 producers
and five injector wells.
As predicted, the recovery efficiency increased with the water injection scheme.
The recovery efficiency increased astronomically from 30%, as obtained with
natural depletion to 52%. The maximum oil production of 7200m3/day could be
sustained for four years and the production constraint of a keeping the plateau
for a 60% of the Estimated Ultimate Recovery could be met.
Also, the total oil production rose steadily and finally peaked at 18MMm3 in 14
years.
Since the oil production was done at a pressure above oil bubble point pressure,
the FGOR remained constant at a value of 0.2m3/m3. Reservoir pressure dropped
steadily from initial reservoir pressure to 296 bars and started rising at the start
of water injection. Field pressure rose very slowly from 296 bars to a final value
of 312 bars in 14 years.
The water injection wells were opened in the 16th month after the start of oil
production. Water injection was done mostly in the Tarbert region. For this 7-
well case, the water injection rate increased rapidly at the time of injection in
order to compensate for voidage already created before injection. Injection rate
then dropped gradually as the plateau rate (oil production) dropped too. The
average reservoir pressure was maintained above 300 bars as it gently rose. The
water cut also increased as the plateau rate was dropping which indicated that
the injected water has broken through and then being produced.
Fig 3.14: Gas Injection: FOPR, FOE and FOPT as a function of time
The FOPR plateau at 7200m3 could only be sustained for 4 years and total oil
recovery was 15 million cubic metres of oil. FOE dropped to 42% as against 52%
that was obtained with water injection
From the production profile of the four wells case, proposed pressure
maintenance at 340 bars wasnt as successful as desired. But however, the rate of
pressure decline around 340 bars reduced for a while, it then reduced gradually
from 340 bars at 300 days to 290 bars at 4 years where it was then maintained
continuously.
Since the field oil recovery dropped by using gas injection, there are still
bypassed oil that were not recovered. This makes only the gas injection not very
suitable on an absolute scale, hence the need for combination with water.
Water is injected into the reservoir for a period of say two years with the same
conditions required for ordinary water injection. The water pumps are then shut
off and the gas compressors are started for injection of gas into the reservoir
through the same injection wells for a shorter duration. The duration of the
water and gas injections are continuously altered until favourable results are
obtained.
Sub case 1: 2.5 years of water injection - 6 months of gas injection - 1.5
years of water injection - 6 months of gas injection-water injection.
Sub case 3: 2.5 years of water injection - 6 months of gas injection - 2 years
of water injection - 6 months of gas injection - 2 years of water injection -
6 months of gas injection - 2 years of water injection - 6 months of gas
injection - 2 years of water injection - 6 months of gas injection -water
injection.
Fig 3.17: Sub case 2: FOPR, FOPT, FOE, FWIR and FPR as a function of time.
Fig 3.19: Sub case 4: FOPR, FOPT, FOE, FWIR and FPR as a function of time
There was fluctuation in the producing gas-oil ratio during the life of the
reservoir due to the alternating injection of water and gas with FGOR highest
during years of gas injection.
WAG has a higher total oil production with reduced water production and
better pressure maintenance than the water injection scheme. This is due to the
fact that injecting gas; reduces the viscosity of oil which improves the sweep,
reduces the amount of injected water/water cut. WI exhibited a longer plateau
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
The oil and gas business aims to maximize profitability of any prospect while
minimizing expenditures and associated uncertainties/risks, within a shorter
time frame. Hence, a key parameter for the justification of any petroleum
business is its economic viability.
The goal of this reservoir simulation project is to propose a development plan
for the Brent East reservoir that maximizes hydrocarbon production and
minimizes the development cost in $/bbl. In the previous chapter, the optimized
development cases for the different development scenarios were determined
after rigorous numerical simulations. This chapter will therefore, deal with the
economic evaluation of those optimal development options for the ALWYN
field.
The capital costs, operating costs, gross revenues, pay-back time and other
profitability indices will be determined for each of the development strategies
that were optimised in the previous chapter. The final project decision will then
be based on the economic evaluation results.
CAPEX
Treatment and Production Facilities Platform 700MM$
Drilling and Accommodation Platform 250MM$
Secondary Platform 250MM$
Drilling Cost per well for deviated wells from a platform 12MM$
Gas compressors 44.2MM$
OPEX
Lifting, Production and Transportation costs 6.5$/bbl
Unit
Cost
Units/Cost in Total Cost in
CAPITAL EXPENDITURE per barrel MM$ MM$
Treatment and Production
Facilities 1 700 700
Drilling and Accomm0dation
Platform with 40 Platform slots 1 250 250
Drilling Cost for Horizontal Wells 0 16 0
Drilling cost for Deviated/Vertical
Wells 2 12 24
Horizontal Subsea Well and Piping 0 40 0
Vertical Subsea well and Piping 0 36 0
Gas Injection Compressors 0 44.2 0
Total Capital Investment 974 974
OPERATING EXPENDITURE
Production and Transportation
Costs 67.33 6.5 437.6
TOTAL EXPENDITURE 1411.6 1411.6
Total Expenditure per barrel 20.96539433
PROFIT
Profit per barrel 89.03460567
Gross Profit Margin in MM$ 5994.7 5994.7
NATURAL DEPLETION
Total Oil Production in MMbbls 67.33
Total Investment in MM$ 724
Gross Revenue in MM$ 7406.3
Gross Profit Margin in MM$ 5994.7
Gross Profit Margin per barrel in MM$ 92.75
Profitability Factor 1.975138122
Cummulative Net Present value in MM$ 1430
Internal rate of Return in % 40%
Pay back Period 2.8 years
Project's Economic Life 9 years
With a gross profit of $5.99 billion dollars, over a fifteen year period, from a total
expenditure of 974 million dollars, this seems to be a very sound investment
strategy. For every barrel of oil produced, a gross profit of $89 is to be made.
Investors should also drool at the fact that the initial capital investments would
be recovered after only 2.7 years. Cumulative Net Present value stands at a
staggering 1.43 billion dollars and the profitability factor is 1.97.
The financial soundness of this production strategy is also backed by other
profitability indices. The internal rate of return is 42% which is far greater than
the projects rate of return.
However, the short economic life of the project might want to deter investors
from backing this option. The project is only economic for 9 years out of the 15
years that it is expected to run. The cash flow is fairly constant at 500 million
dollars for the first six years and peaks at 580 million dollars in the seventh year.
Economic decline sets in after the seventh year as cash flow is at the end of the
8th and 9th is 419 MM$ and 41 MM$ respectively. The project is no longer
economically viable after the 9th year.
At face value, this is profitable for any investor but the short economic life
represents a drawback.
Other development strategies will have to be evaluated to determine the most
profitable development option based on basic assumptions, available constraints
and data.
GAS INJECTION
PRODUCTION DATA
OOIP in MMSm3 35.68
Fractional Oil Recovery 42
Unrecoverable Oil in MMSm3 20.6944
Produced Oil in MMSm3 14.9856
Produced Oil in MMbbl 92.25
REVENUE
Selling Price per barrel in $ 110
GAS INJECTION
Total Oil Production in MMbbls 92.25
Total Investment in MM$ 1090.2
Gross Revenue in MM$ 1014.5
Gross Profit Margin in MM$ 8457.675
Gross Profit Margin per barrel in
MM$ 91.68
Profitability Factor 2.494606494
Cummulative Net Present value in
MM$ 2719.62
Internal rate of Return in % 84.68
Pay back Period 1.3 years
Project's Economic Life 11 years
This field development scenario has all the trapping of an investors delight. 8.46
billion dollars to be made on an investment of 1.09 billion dollars is absolutely
astonishing. 91.68 dollars of gross profit per barrel is to be made on a barrel cost
of 18.32 dollars is completely unbelievable but the figures dont lie.
A project is usually considered profitable if its Internal Rate of Return (IRR)
exceeds the projects discount rate (DR). This is observed in this development
option as the IRR of 84.68% is by far greater than its DR of 10%.
A project with shorter payback period is usually preferred as investors are
assured of timely break-even, and hence profit in a shorter time. As the Net
Present Value (NPV) measures the present days worth of a projects future
revenue or worth; a positive NPV indicates that the project of concern is
profitable. The payback period of 1.3 years, for an economic project life of 11
years, and a high positive Net Present Value (NPV) of $2.719 billion, are
500
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
Time in years
-500
-1000
-1500
However, just as in the previous case, the project isnt economic throughout its
whole life. It stops being economic in the 11th year and losses of over 84 million
dollar will be made in the 12th year.
After pay back in 1.3 years, investors begin to have positive cash flow which
maintains a fairly constant plateau of one billion dollars for 2.7 years. Revenues
begin to slump continuously as from the 4th year until the 11th year when losses
begin to set in. The project stops being economic at this point as the field is no
longer producing but production costs still have to be shouldered. The total
losses to be taken for the last four years are projected at 84 million dollars.
This picture wont be very exciting to investors who are willing to stump 1.09
billion dollars in the high-risk oil and gas business.
Depending on the business strategy of the investor, the gas injection scheme
represents a profitable development option if the investors are willing to make
profit in the first 10.7 years after pay-back years, take losses in the 12th year and
expect no revenue up till the 15th year.
NWOSU, DIXON 75 IJEH, ISIJOKELU
4.3 Economic Analysis of Water Injection Scenario
A major assumption made in the economic analysis of this strategy is that the
costs associated with injecting water into the wells are negligible. In this case,
52% oil recovery is obtained from producing oil using a scheme that comprises
seven producers and five injectors. The total volume of oil produced was
116.23MM barrels
Table 4.5 Revenues and Expenditures for Water Injection
WATER INJECTION
PRODUCTION DATA
OOIP in MMSm3 35.68
Fractional Oil Recovery 51.8
Unrecoverable Oil in MMSm3 17.2
Produced Oil in MMSm3 18.48
Produced Oil in MMbbl 116.23
REVENUE
Selling Price per barrel in $ 110
Gross Revenue in MM$ 12785.3
Unit
Cost Total
Units/Cost in Cost in
CAPITAL EXPENDITURE per barrel MM$ MM$
Treatment and Production
Facilities 1 700 700
Drilling and Accomodation
Platform with 40 Platform slots 1 250 250
Drilling Cost for Horizontal Wells 0 16 0
Drilling cost for Deviated/Vertical
Wells 8 12 96
Horizontal Subsea Well and Piping 0 40 0
Vertical Subsea well and Piping 0 36 0
Gas Injection Compressors 0 44.2 0
Total Capital Investment 1046 1046
OPERATING EXPENDITURE
Production and Transportation 116.23 6.5 755.495
WATER INJECTION
Total Oil Production in MMbbls 116.23
Total Investment in MM$ 1046
Gross Revenue in MM$ 12785.3
Gross Profit Margin in MM$ 10983.81
Gross Profit Margin per barrel in
MM$ 94.5
Profitability Factor 3.256879541
Cumulative Net Present value in
MM$ 3406.696
Internal rate of Return in % 90.4
Pay back Period 1.2 years
Project's Economic Life `15 years
Via this scheme, 10.9 billion dollars is to be made from an initial capital
investment of 1.05 billion dollars. A profit of 94.5 dollars is to be made for every
barrel of oil produced which comes at a cost of 15.5 dollars. The Net Present
Value is a staggering 3.19 billion dollars while investors are expected to recover
their initial outlay of 1.05 billion dollars in 1.2 years.
Profitability factor stands at an impressive 3.05 while internal rate of return is
at an even more impressive 92% in contrast to the discount rate of 10%.
500
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
-1000
-1500
Fig4.3 Cash flow for Water Injection
After pay back in 1.2 years, investors begin to have positive cash flow which
maintains a fairly constant plateau of one billion dollars for 2.7 years. Revenues
begin to slump continuously as from the 4th year to 500 million dollars in the 6th
year to about 81 million dollars in the 11 year. As from the 11th year, huge cash
flows are no longer guaranteed but there is cash flow all through the producing
life of the field. The cash flow in the 12th year is 36 million dollars and slumps
even more to an all-time low of 24 million dollars at the end of the projects life.
With this scheme, investors are guaranteed profit throughout the producing life
of the project as the project is economic all through.
Clearly, this is a production scheme that investors should look into as all its
economic indices are positively high. This scheme outperforms the gas injection
and natural depletion production schemes in all aspects.
REVENUE
Selling Price per barrel in $ 110
Gross Revenue in MM$ 13576.2
Unit
Cost
Units/Cost in Total Cost
CAPITAL EXPENDITURE per barrel MM$ in MM$
Treatment and Production
Facilities 1 700 700
Drilling and Accomodation
Platform with 40 Platform slots 1 250 250
Drilling Cost for Horizontal Wells 0 16 0
Drilling cost for Deviated/Vertical
Wells 8 12 96
Horizontal Subsea Well and Piping 0 40 0
Vertical Subsea well and Piping 0 36 0
Gas Injection Compressors 1 44.2 44.2
Total Capital Investment 1090.2 1090.2
OPERATING EXPENDITURE
Lifting, Production and
Transportation Costs 123.42 6.5 802.23
TOTAL EXPENDITURE 1892.43 1892.43
Total Expenditure per barrel 15.333252
PROFIT
Profit per barrel 94.666748
Gross Profit Margin in MM$ 11683.77 11683.77
WAG INJECTION
Total Oil Production 92.25
Total Investment 1090.2
Gross Revenue 13576.2
Gross Profit Margin 11683.77
Gross Profit Margin per
barrel 94.66
Profitability Factor 3.2224211
Cumulative Net Present
value 3513.083483
Internal rate of Return 85%
Pay back Period 1.3 years
Project's Economic Life 15 years
The gross revenues to be made from this scheme far outstrip whatever
investment costs that might have been outlaid for the project. Investors are
expected to bag over 11.68 billion dollars from an initial investment of 1.09 billion
dollars that would be recouped in 1.3 years. 94 .66 dollars of oil is expected to be
made for every barrel of oil that costs 15.33 dollars.
The Net Present Value is a monstrous 3.513billion dollar, profitability factor is
3.22 and the internal rate of return is highly impressive at 85%.
500
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
Cash Flow
Time in Years
-500
-1000
-1500
After pay back in 1.3 years, investors begin to have positive cash flow which
maintains a fairly constant plateau of one billion dollars for 2.7 years. Revenues
begin to slump continuously as from the 4th year to 632 million dollars in the 6th
year to about 115 million dollars in the 11 year. As from the 11th year, huge cash
flows are no longer guaranteed but there is cash flow all through the producing
life of the field. The cash flow is constant for the next two years at 95 million
dollars, reduces to 74 million dollars in the 14th year and slumps to a final value
of 65 million dollars in the 15th year. `
16
14
12
Investment Costs in MM$
10
0
Natural Depletion Water Injection Gas Injection WAG Injection
An investor, with limited borrowing power and weak financial muscle, should
simply settle for the natural depletion strategy as it limits his financial exposure.
He is more willing to settle for the cheapest project as the profitability of all the
schemes has been certified.
16
14
12
Pay-back time
10
0
Natural Depletion Water Injection Gas Injection WAG Injection
Fig 4.6 : Pay-back time for the various development schemes
14
12
10
8 Economic Life
Profitability Index
6
0
Natural Depletion Water Injection Gas Injection WAG Injection
Fig 4.7: Economic Life and PI for the various development schemes
Fig 4.8 GPM per barrel for the various development schemes
NPV
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
NPV
1500
1000
500
0
Natural Depletion Water Injection Gas Injection WAG Injection
Due of the time value of money, a dollar earned in the future wont be worth as
much as one earned today. This is accounted for by the discount rate in the NPV
formula. The NPV therefore calculates the present worth of future cash flows of
a project, to determine its profitability. The higher it is, the better the projects
profitability. In view of this, WAG shows the highest potential.
Pay
back Economic Oil
IRR GPM PI Time Life NPV CAPEX Production
2.8
Natural Depletion 40 89 1.975 years 9 years 1430 724 67.33
1.2
Water Injection 90.4 94.5 3.257 years `15 years 3406.696 1046 116.23
1.3
Gas Injection 84 91.68 2.436 years 11 years 2656 1090.2 92.25
1.3
WAG Injection 85 94.66 3.222 years 15 years 3513.083 1090.2 123.42
2. The WAG scheme has the highest Net Present Value (NPV).
3. The WI scheme has the highest Gross Profit Margin (GPM) per barrel, highest
Productivity Index (PI), highest Internal Rate of Return (IRR), and the shortest
Pay-Back Period.
The Water injection scheme showed a higher profit, lower capital investment, a
longer production plateau and a better recovery. It is clearly the most profitable
scheme and is recommended because well effluent will always be single phased
and surface facilities will not have to encounter a lot of gas.
1. Further studies to determine the optimal wells placement for the field, as
such will add to recovery.
6. The economic analysis is highly simplistic and more factors should have to be
taken into account to give a true picture of the economics the various
development schemes.
NATURAL DEPLETION
Oi l Pri ce = $110/bbl
Di s c. ra te= 10%
Prod. in Prod. in Tax Cash Cum.NP
bbls
Year Disc. Factor MMm3 CAPEX Revenue Depr OPEX Income Bill Flow NPV V
0 1 0 0 974 0 0 0 0 0 -1090.2 -1090.2 -1090.2
1 0.909 8.427673 1.34 927.044 64.93 54.78 807.3308 322.9 484.3985 440.3623 -649.84
2 0.826 8.3647799 1.33 920.126 64.93 54.371 800.8214 320.3 480.4928 397.1015 -252.74
3 0.751 8.427673 1.34 927.044 64.93 54.78 807.3308 322.9 484.3985 363.9358 111.2
4 0.683 8.427673 1.34 927.044 64.93 54.78 807.3308 322.9 484.3985 330.8507 442.05
5 0.621 8.8679245 1.41 975.472 64.93 57.642 852.8969 341.2 511.7381 317.7491 759.799
6 0.564 8.427673 1.34 927.044 64.93 54.78 807.3308 322.9 484.3985 273.4303 1033.23
7 0.513 10.377358 1.65 1141.51 64.93 67.453 1009.123 403.6 605.474 310.7039 1343.93
8 0.467 7.7987421 1.24 857.862 64.93 50.692 742.2365 296.9 445.3419 207.7553 1551.69
9 0.424 1.6981132 0.27 186.792 64.93 11.038 110.8214 44.33 66.49283 28.19945 1579.89
10 0.386 0 0 0 64.93 0 -64.93333 -26 -38.96 -15.02077 1564.87
11 0.35 0 0 0 64.93 0 -64.93333 -26 -38.96 -13.65524 1551.21
12 0.319 0 0 0 64.93 0 -64.93333 -26 -38.96 -12.41386 1538.8
13 0.29 0 0 0 64.93 0 -64.93333 -26 -38.96 -11.28532 1527.51
14 0.263 0 0 0 64.93 0 -64.93333 -26 -38.96 -10.25939 1517.25
15 0.239 0 0 0 64.93 0 -64.93333 -26 -38.96 -9.326714 1507.93
IRR 42%
PAYBACK PERIOD 2.7 YEARS
GAS INJECTION
Oi l Pri ce = $110/bbl
Di s c. ra te= 10%
Depre
Prod. i n Prod. i n ci a tio Ta xa bl e Ta x Ca s h Cum.
Yea rDi s c. Fabbl s
ctor MMm 3 CAPEX Revenue n OPEX Income Bi l l Fl ow NPV NPV
0 1 0 0 1090 0 0 0 0 0 -1090.2 -1090.2 -1090.2
1 0.909 16.163522 2.57 1777.99 72.68 105.06 1600.245 640.1 960.1467 872.8607 -217.34
2 0.826 16.761006 2.665 1843.71 72.68 108.95 1662.084 664.8 997.2505 824.174 606.835
3 0.751 16.389937 2.606 1802.89 72.68 106.53 1623.678 649.5 974.2071 731.9362 1338.77
4 0.683 16.566038 2.634 1822.26 72.68 107.68 1641.905 656.8 985.1429 672.8659 2011.64
5 0.621 8.8679245 1.41 975.472 72.68 57.642 845.1502 338.1 507.0901 314.8631 2326.5
6 0.564 6.6352201 1.055 729.874 72.68 43.129 614.0653 245.6 368.4392 207.9743 2534.47
7 0.513 4.2641509 0.678 469.057 72.68 27.717 368.6596 147.5 221.1958 113.5084 2647.98
8 0.467 2.7672956 0.44 304.403 72.68 17.987 213.7351 85.49 128.2411 59.8254 2707.81
9 0.424 1.8113208 0.288 199.245 72.68 11.774 114.7917 45.92 68.87502 29.20973 2737.02
10 0.386 1.1509434 0.183 126.604 72.68 7.4811 46.44264 18.58 27.86558 10.74339 2747.76
11 0.35 0.9874214 0.157 108.616 72.68 6.4182 29.51811 11.81 17.71087 6.207551 2753.97
12 0.319 0.0628931 0.01 6.91824 72.68 0.4088 -66.17057 -26.5 -39.7023 -12.65039 2741.32
13 0.29 0 0 0 72.68 0 -72.68 -29.1 -43.608 -12.63168 2728.69
14 0.263 0 0 0 72.68 0 -72.68 -29.1 -43.608 -11.48335 2717.2
15 0.239 0 0 0 72.68 0 -72.68 -29.1 -43.608 -10.43941 2706.76
IRR 85%
PAYBACK PERIOD 1.3 YEARS
WATER INJECTION
Oil Price = $110/bbl
Disc. rate= 10%
Producti Producti
on in on in Cash Cum.NP
bbls
Year Disc. Factor MMm3 CAPEX Revenue Depr OPEX Income Tax Bill Flow NPV V
0 1 0 0 1046 0 0 0 0 0 -1046 -1046 -1046
1 0.91 16.214 2.578 1783.5 69.733 105 1608.4 643.4 965 877.3 -168.7
2 0.83 16.528 2.628 1818.1 69.733 107 1640.9 656.4 984.6 813.7 645
3 0.75 16.572 2.635 1823 69.733 108 1645.5 658.2 987.3 741.8 1386.8
4 0.68 16.572 2.635 1823 69.733 108 1645.5 658.2 987.3 674.3 2061.1
5 0.62 13.358 2.124 1469.4 69.733 86.8 1312.9 525.1 787.7 489.1 2550.2
6 0.56 9.1006 1.447 1001.1 69.733 59.2 872.18 348.9 523.3 295.4 2845.6
7 0.51 6.4843 1.031 713.27 69.733 42.1 601.39 240.6 360.8 185.2 3030.8
8 0.47 5.1384 0.817 565.22 69.733 33.4 462.09 184.8 277.3 129.3 3160.1
9 0.42 4.1258 0.656 453.84 69.733 26.8 357.29 142.9 214.4 90.91 3251
10 0.39 3.2704 0.52 359.75 69.733 21.3 268.76 107.5 161.3 62.17 3313.2
11 0.35 2.6415 0.42 290.57 69.733 17.2 203.66 81.47 122.2 42.83 3356
12 0.32 1.9748 0.314 217.23 69.733 12.8 134.66 53.87 80.8 25.74 3381.8
13 0.29 1.2579 0.2 138.36 69.733 8.18 60.455 24.18 36.27 10.51 3392.3
14 0.26 1.195 0.19 131.45 69.733 7.77 53.946 21.58 32.37 8.523 3400.8
15 0.24 1.0692 0.17 117.61 69.733 6.95 40.927 16.37 24.56 5.879 3406.7
IRR 90%
PAYBACK PERIOD 1.2 YEARS
WAG INJECTION
Oil Price = $110/bbl
GAS INJECTION
Oil Price = $110/bbl
Disc. Rate 0.8468
Prod. in Prod. in Tax Cash Cum.NP
3
bbls
Year Disc. Factor MMm CAPEX Revenue Depr OPEX Income Bill Flow NPV V
0 1 0 0 1090 0 0 0 0 0 -1090.2 -1090.2 -1090.2
1 0.541 16.163522 2.57 1777.99 72.68 105.06 1600.245 640.1 960.1467 519.8975 -570.3
2 0.293 16.761006 2.665 1843.71 69.48 108.95 1665.284 666.1 999.1705 292.9543 -277.35
3 0.159 16.389937 2.606 1802.89 69.48 106.53 1626.878 650.8 976.1271 154.9697 -122.38
4 0.086 16.566038 2.634 1822.26 69.48 107.68 1645.105 658 987.0629 84.85264 -37.526
5 0.047 8.8679245 1.41 975.472 69.48 57.642 848.3502 339.3 509.0101 23.69338 -13.832
6 0.025 6.6352201 1.055 729.874 69.48 43.129 617.2653 246.9 370.3592 9.334776 -4.4977
7 0.014 4.2641509 0.678 469.057 69.48 27.717 371.8596 148.7 223.1158 3.045027 -1.4527
8 0.008 2.7672956 0.44 304.403 69.48 17.987 216.9351 86.77 130.1611 1.08121 -0.3715
9 0.004 1.8113208 0.288 199.245 69.48 11.774 117.9917 47.2 70.79502 0.283285 -0.0882
10 0.002 1.1509434 0.183 126.604 69.48 7.4811 49.64264 19.86 29.78558 0.064537 -0.0236
11 0.001 0.9874214 0.157 108.616 69.48 6.4182 32.71811 13.09 19.63087 0.023031 -0.0006
12 6E-04 0.0628931 0.01 6.91824 69.48 0.4088 -62.97057 -25.19 -37.7823 -0.024002 -0.0246
13 3E-04 0 0 0 69.48 0 -69.48 -27.79 -41.688 -0.01434 -0.039
14 2E-04 0 0 0 69.48 0 -69.48 -27.79 -41.688 -0.007765 -0.0467
15 1E-04 0 0 0 69.48 0 -69.48 -27.79 -41.688 -0.004204 -0.0509
WATER INJECTION
Oi l Pri ce = $110/bbl
Di s c. Ra te 0.904
Ta x
Annua l Bi l l of
Annua l Producti Depre the Net Net
Production on i n ci a tio Ta xa bl e Projec Ca s h Pres ent Pres ent
3
Yea rDi s c. Fai ctor
n bbl s MMm CAPEX Revenue n OPEX Income t Fl ow Va l ue va l ue
0 1 0 0 1046 0 0 0 0 0 -1046 -1046 -1046
1 0.525 16.213836 2.578 1783.52 69.73 105.39 1608.399 643.4 965.0392 506.8483 -539.15
2 0.276 16.528302 2.628 1818.11 69.48 107.43 1641.199 656.5 984.7195 271.6306 -267.52
3 0.145 16.572327 2.635 1822.96 69.48 107.72 1645.756 658.3 987.4535 143.0592 -124.46
4 0.076 16.572327 2.635 1822.96 69.48 107.72 1645.756 658.3 987.4535 75.13614 -49.326
5 0.04 13.358491 2.124 1469.43 69.48 86.83 1313.124 525.2 787.8743 31.48634 -17.839
6 0.021 9.1006289 1.447 1001.07 69.48 59.154 872.4351 349 523.4611 10.98709 -6.8523
7 0.011 6.4842767 1.031 713.27 69.48 42.148 601.6426 240.7 360.9856 3.979433 -2.8729
8 0.008 5.1383648 0.817 565.22 69.48 33.399 462.3408 184.9 277.4045 2.304318 -0.5685
9 0.003 4.1257862 0.656 453.836 69.48 26.818 357.5389 143 214.5233 0.652337 0.0838
10 0.002 0.327044 0.052 35.9748 69.48 2.1258 -35.63094 -14.3 -21.3786 -0.034144 0.04966
11 8E-04 0.2641509 0.042 29.0566 69.48 1.717 -42.14038 -16.9 -25.2842 -0.021209 0.02845
12 4E-04 0.1974843 0.0314 21.7233 69.48 1.2836 -49.04038 -19.6 -29.4242 -0.012963 0.01549
13 2E-04 0.0125786 0.002 1.38365 69.48 0.0818 -68.17811 -27.3 -40.9069 -0.009465 0.00602
14 1E-04 0.0119497 0.0019 1.31447 69.48 0.0777 -68.24321 -27.3 -40.9459 -0.004976 0.00104
15 6E-05 0.0106918 0.0017 1.1761 69.48 0.0695 -68.3734 -27.3 -41.024 -0.002618 -0.0016
WAG INJECTION
Oi l Pri ce = $110/bbl
Di s c. Ra te 0.8181
Prod. i n Prod. i n Ca s h Cum.NP
3
Yea r Di s c. Fabbl s
ctor MMm CAPEX Revenue Depr OPEX Income Ta x Bi l l Fl ow NPV V
0 1 0 0 1090.2 0 0 0 0 0 -1090.2 -1090.2 -1090.2
1 0.549 15.59748 2.48 1715.72 72.68 101 1541.66 616.6638 924.99577 508.2394 -581.96
2 0.303 16.33962 2.598 1797.36 72.68 106 1618.47 647.3884 971.08257 293.7789 -288.18
3 0.166 12.83019 2.04 1411.32 72.68 83.4 1255.24 502.0978 753.14672 125.3217 -162.86
4 0.092 16.46541 2.618 1811.19 72.68 107 1631.49 652.5959 978.89389 89.59103 -73.269
5 0.05 14.84277 2.36 1632.7 72.68 96.5 1463.55 585.4186 878.12785 44.20475 -29.064
6 0.028 10.89308 1.732 1198.24 72.68 70.8 1054.75 421.9016 632.85238 17.52249 -11.542
7 0.015 7.207547 1.146 792.83 72.68 46.8 673.301 269.3205 403.98068 6.152282 -5.3894
8 0.008 5.591195 0.889 615.031 72.68 36.3 506.009 202.4035 303.60521 2.52196 -2.8674
9 0.005 4.232704 0.673 465.597 72.68 27.5 365.405 146.162 219.24294 1.010103 -1.8573
10 0.003 2.90566 0.462 319.623 72.68 18.9 228.056 91.22234 136.83351 0.346749 -1.5106
11 0.001 2.566038 0.408 282.264 72.68 16.7 192.905 77.16196 115.74294 0.161324 -1.3493
12 8E-04 2.245283 0.357 246.981 72.68 14.6 159.707 63.88272 95.824075 0.073462 -1.2758
13 4E-04 2.238994 0.356 246.289 72.68 14.6 159.056 63.62234 95.433509 0.040241 -1.2356
14 2E-04 1.886792 0.3 207.547 72.68 12.3 122.603 49.04121 73.561811 0.017061 -1.2185
15 1E-04 1.72956 0.275 190.252 72.68 11.2 106.329 42.53177 63.79766 0.008138 -1.2104
PMAX
550 418 1* 1* /
--PVTW
ECHO
-- DENSITY created by PVTi
-- Units: kg /m^3 kg /m^3 kg /m^3
DENSITY
--
-- Fluid Densities at Surface Conditions
--
829.7675 1020.0000 1.0449
/
NWOSU, DIXON 99 IJEH, ISIJOKELU
-- Column Properties are:
-- 'Oil RS' 'PSAT' 'Oil FVF' 'Oil Visc'
-- Units: sm3 /sm3 bar rm3 /sm3 cp
PVTO
--
-- Live Oil PVT Properties (Dissolved Gas)
--
0.0000 1.0132 1.0463 3.6674
25.0000 1.0450 3.7326
50.0000 1.0436 3.7990
100.0000 1.0411 3.9272
150.0000 1.0387 4.0495
175.0000 1.0377 4.1086
200.0000 1.0366 4.1665
225.0000 1.0356 4.2231
250.0000 1.0346 4.2784
258.2362 1.0343 4.2964
300.0000 1.0328 4.3858
350.0000 1.0310 4.4888
375.0000 1.0302 4.5387
400.0000 1.0294 4.5877
409.1537 1.0291 4.6054
413.7306 1.0290 4.6142
418.3074 1.0289 4.6230
450.0000 1.0279 4.6828
500.0000 1.0265 4.7743
550.0000 1.0251 4.8625 /
18.5139 25.0000 1.1266 1.2536
50.0000 1.1213 1.3220
100.0000 1.1119 1.4561
150.0000 1.1038 1.5868