Thayer Consultancy Background Briefing:

ABN # 65 648 097 123

Vietnam: Death Sentence for
Corruption ex-PetroVN Chair
Carlyle A. Thayer
September 29,2017

We are reaching out to you to seek an assessment of this morning's sentencing of

former PetroVietnam chairman Nguyen Xuan Son and former chairman of Ocean Bank
Ha Van Tham. Son was given a death sentence for several charges including corruption
and Tham received a life imprisonment for various charges including corruption.

We request your evaluation on these sentences. What do such strong punishments

mean for the corruption crackdown and what are the political implications, if there's
any, in this case?
ANSWER: These sentences were expected because the Hanoi People's Procuracy
made public their recommendations fifteen days ago. lt is normal for Vietnam to hand
down death sentences to the leading culprit in a high-profile corruption case that has
caused major losses to the state. Tham's sentence for life was an aggregate of various
charges against him. We can expect more of the same as corruption cases are brought
to the courts.
These harsh sentences are mainly for public effect to show the population that
government leaders are serious about ending large scale corruption. These sentences
will have little deterrent effect on endemic corruption in Vietnam because the rooi
cause is the lack of good governance including an independent system of audit,
investigation and prosecution that is free from political influence. The shock of these
sentences, like a booster inoculation, will wear off over time.
The anti-corruption campaign and the attendant court cases with heavy penalties is
designed to mitigate the impact of corruption on the legitimacy of Vietnam's one-
party state. For well over a decade, top party leaders have spoken publicly that
corruption was the major challenge to their legitimacy. High-profile trials and harsh
sentences are carried out to assuage public anger over corruption. However, these
high-profile cases will not address everyday corruption encountered by the ordinary
Vietnamese citizens in dealing with government officials and traffic police.
Because Vietnam lacks an effective independent system of governance, every
corruption trial raises the question is there any political motivation behind them? ln
other words, are the prosecutors acting "without fear or favour"?
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Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, "Vietnam: Death Sentence for Corruption ex-
PetroVN Chair," Thayer Consultancy Bockground Brief , September 29, 2017. All
background briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself
from the mailing list type, UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key.

Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.
 Thayer Consultancy Background Briefing:
ABN # 65 648 097 123
Vietnam: Ocean Bank
Corruption Trial Verdict
Carlyle A. Thayer
Septemb er 29,2017

We are working on a a report that follows up on the verdict of the OceanBank trial,
expected Friday. We request your input to the following questions:
1. Given that tough sentences, possibly including a death penalty, are expected at the
trial, a common question resurfaces: de harsh punishments, even the death penalty,
help Vietnam deter grand corruption?
ANSWER: Harsh prison sentences and even the death penalty will only have a marginal
impact on curbing grand corruption. Resorting to hard sentences is like a medical
booster shot (inoculation), it wears off over time. Grand corruption can only be
eliminated by effective measures of governance including audits that are independent
of political interference.
2, At a crucial moment when Vietnam's top leadership is trying to exhibit
determination to go after a few high-profile individuals to restore public trust, would
such strategy work? What do the masses most care about when it comes to
corru ption ?

ANSWER: lf Nguyen Xuan Son is executed this will be a powerful message to thg
general public that the current leadership is serious about its anti-corruption drive.
The same message will also be conveyed with life prison sentences. To be effective
the anti-corruption campaign must be never ending. There are undoubtedly other
corruption scandals waiting to be exposed. However, dealing with a group of corrupt
officials does not address Vietnam's system of governance, rule of law and prevailing
business culture. The investigators, prosecutors and courts all must be independent
of political influence.
The masses encounter everyday low-level corruption in their dealings with
government officials, traffic police etc. They would like to see this ended as their first
priority. The masses' cynicism about government officials is partly assuaged by high
publicity trials of business leaders and bankers. Anti-corruption trials are a two-edged
sword. One blade strikes at corruption networks and reassures the public that the top
leaders are clean. The other blade cuts away at the legitimacy of the present political
system and exposes the leadership's lack of effective oversight or turning a blind eye
to corruption.
 2

3. With regard to Vietnam's sweeping corruption crackdown, what is your projection

on what is in the offing after the OceanBank trial?
ANSWER: Given the public statements by the Hanoi People's Procuracy of the
penalties they are seeking against Nguyen Xuan Son, itwould be surprising if he did
not face the death penalty. Other top officials have either been given life sentences
when multiple charges and penalties are added up or very long jail sentences. Expect
more corruption cases to follow with heavy penalties.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, "Vietnam: Ocean Bank Corruption Trial Verdict,"
Thayer Consultoncy Background Brief , September 29,2017. All background briefs are
posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the mailing list
type, UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key.

Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.