Migration to 4G

Challenges and Opportunities

Amit A Patel
CTO, US Strategic Accounts
April 2009
Migration to 4G: Challenges and Opportunities

Both LTE and WiMAX will offer a new suite of end user capabilities, and there
is much hype around the evolution to 4G networks. Many rural carriers have
spectrum assets - and want to take advantage of these new technologies to
offer high speed mobile data. So, when will this be available in rural markets?
This session will discuss the realities of 4G, including a technology overview,
deployment status, business drivers, and market challenges.
- Amit A Patel, CTO - US Strategic Wireless Accounts, Alcatel-Lucent
AGENDA /
es.com
ac

4G Hype the Buzz is EVERYWHERE! .wikisp
s
appen
t h

What is 4G ? :/ /shif
http

4G Business Drivers

4G Market and Technology Challenges

4G Deployment Status

Rural Carrier Deployment Scenarios

2 | Migration to 4G | April 2009 All Rights Reserved Alcatel-Lucent 2009

 4G Excitement US Carriers Selecting LTE and WiMAX
AT&T: HSPA+, Not LTE for Now
Verizon Opts for LTE Based Network
Apr 20, 2009
Feb 18, 2009
Before AT&T implements LTE, it plans
Verizon said it would build its new
another HSPA upgrade that will bring
superfast mobile broadband network
3G capacity up to 7.2 Mb/s. Later
on LTE (long term evolution) using
this year, AT&T plans to start
technologies from Ericsson and
migrating its 3G networks to HSPA+,
Alcatel-Lucent.
which would triple speeds.
Clearwire Puts Down LTE Open Range to Launch WiMAX
Feb 18, 2009 Jan 9, 2009
Clearwire continues to move full Open Range to launch affordable high
speed ahead with plans to introduce speed broadband internet and voice
new mobile WiMAX markets, services services to more than 6M citizens in
and devices this year. 546 underserved and rural
communities using WiMAX technology
within five years.
MetroPCS to Launch LTE in 2010
Could Broadband Stimulus Package
Mar 4, 2009
be a Coup for Wireless Broadband?
MetroPCS plans to launch LTE Jan 20, 2009
technology in the second half of 2010.
Wireless included in Broadband
Stimulus bill.

How quickly will the US get to 100K LTE or WiMAX subscribers? 1M?
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 4G Market Forecast
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Mobile Subscriber Base (M)
GSM/GPRS/EDGE 2,699 3,263 3,563 3,663 3,713 3,728 3,723
CDMA 410 486 505 500 487 462 430
WCDMA 179 301 440 641 954 1,391 1,894
3G LTE 0 1 7 19
WiMAX 0 3 7 16 33 55 80
PDC 18 9
iDEN 25 20 17 14 11 8 5
Total 3,337 4,081 4,532 4,835 5,200 5,651 6,162
DELL'ORO
GROUP

DellOro Group: Mobility Report

Five Year Forecast (Jan 2009)

LTE+WiMAX: 99M subscribers by 2013

LTE+WiMAX: 1.6% of total subs by 2013

WCDMA: Continues to grow, 30%+ of total subs
by 2013; 60%+ of total infrastructure revenue

GSM: Stays steady, 60% of total subs in 2013

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 4G Excitement Where Are We Today and Where Are We Going
New applications Rich ecosystem Growing # of mobiles Rise of the millenials
The Millennials
Fixed broadband life My life in my handset generation born
and/or raised
with Internet
(11-25 years
old)
Within 5 years,
millennials life style
by 2011, roughly 4 injected into their
billion mobile adult lives &
phones ! enterprises

Media Readers
e-Car Portable Game
Players Recording Communicators (e-Paper)
devices Consoles
devices

Booming demand for broadband data consumption

and rich devices for communication & entertainment
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4G Excitement - How Much Data Is There ?

consumes more bandwidth today than the entire Internet did in 2000

It took 200 years to fill the Library of Congress

57 million documents, 29 million books, 12 million
photos

Worldwide, an equal amount of digital info is
generated almost 100 times per day

One Exabyte = 1 quintillion bytes = 1,152,921,504,606,846,976 bytes (or 1B GB)

12 Exabytes = Sum of all human produced information (audio, video, text/books)

through 1999 (of which 1.5 exabytes was created in 1999 alone) *

Worldwide Information Tracker - http://www.emc.com/leadership/digital-
universe/expanding-digital-universe.htm shows 467 Exabytes created and
replicated worldwide in 2008 **
* University of California at Berkeley study

Thats 1.2 Exabytes a day (and growing) !! ** IDC The Diverse and Exploding Digital Universe

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4G Excitement - Whats New For 2009 ?

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4G Excitement - A Crazy Idea For 201x ???

Navigation

Parking Cameras

Google Maps

Location Info

Heads Up Display

O
N
T
O

Intelligent Windscreen

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So, What is 4G?

Mobile Market Trends

Next
NextGeneration
Generation
Bandwidth Hungry Applications
Technology Requirements Wireless

Higher data rates & spectral
Wireless
(Real-time, Interactive, High
efficiency 100
100Mbps
Mbpsspeed
speed
Resolution)

Improved OFDMA air-interface
Full
Fullmobility
mobility
Context Awareness &
Reduced latency
Personalization
Flatter IP networks Any
Anynetwork
network

Seamless handover between various Any
Social Networking & Content wireless technologies Anyterminal
terminal

Support a range of cell deployment All-IP
All-IP
Sharing
scenarios
QoS
QoScontrol
control
Immediacy
High
HighQoE
QoE
Wireless/Wireline Convergence

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 What is 4G? A High Level Standards View

More Mobile

WiMAX 802.16e-2005

IP Transport WiMAX Enhanced

OFDM All-IP MIMO

Ultra Mobile Broadband

CDMA2000 EV-DO Rev.A
(UMB aka EVDO Rev C)
Mo
re OFDM All-IP MIMO
IP Transport B ro
ad
ba
nd

HSDPA enh. / HSUPA More Broadband Long Term Evolution (LTE)

IP Transport OFDM All-IP MIMO

Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiple Access (OFDM), IP, Multiple Input Multiple Output
(MIMO) advanced antennas are vital components of any next-generation technology.
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What Is 4G? OFDMA
OFDMA Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiple Access
Guard Band

100 Kbps channel 1

100 Kbps channel 2
100 Kbps channel n
10 Mbps 100 Kbps channel 99
Data Saved bandwidth
100 Kbps channel 100
No interference

Send large amount of FDM transmission with

data by using numerous narrowband overlapping
low rate channels in orthogonal (non interfering)
parallel perfect for carriers used with new low
high peak data rates cost, highly accurate
narrowband frequency filters

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What is 4G? MIMO and Beam Forming

Intelligent Antenna Multiple Antennas

and Beam Forming MIMO = Multiple Input Multiple Output

w/o multiple
antennas x Mbps

With
multiple
3 miles
antennas
5 miles 1.5x Mbps

Concentrated beam to each user Higher throughput with multiple

can lead to 50% capacity gains. antennas (different data on
This can be done dynamically each carrier) and/or greater
based on the users in the cell range. coverage with multiple antennas
(same data on each carrier).

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 What Is 4G? All IP

Greater Backhaul BW Need

LTE or WiMAX
Greater data speeds to mobiles
Core Network means greater backhaul needs
(IP based for
Data, Voice and
1-2 T1s Multimedia Apps) IP/Ethernet Based Backhaul,
IP/MPLS Core, and an IP
ATM/FR Transport
Based Voice/Data Core
1st Generation 2-4 T1s IP/Ethernet
IP/MPLS is more efficient due
AMPS Transport to shared bandwidth vs
(voice only) 4-8 T1s dedicated bandwidth with
40-80 T1s
ATM/FR. Multiple users with
bursty data needs requires a
shared solution.
2nd Generation
Lower Latency faster
GSM/CDMA 4th Generation session setup
(voice and low 3rdGeneration
LTE or
IMS in the core to support VoIP
speed data) xEVDO, HSPA, WiMAX Enhanced
HSPA+, WiMAX (voice and
and blended multi-media
(voice and high broadband data) applications
speed data)

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 What is 4G? What Download Data Rates Can You Expect?
70
Mbps
60 FDD 5 MHz Up / 5 MHz Down
TDD 10 MHz LTE Advertises 100+ Mbps
50

Need a lot of contiguous
40 spectrum to theoretically
30 achieve 100+ Mbps (20 MHz
up + 20 MHz down)
20

Real world likely speeds will
10 be much lower
160
0
EVDO EVDO HSPA HSPA+ HSPA+ LTE 2x2 LTE WiMAX WiMAX 4x2 140
Rev 0 Rev A 2x2 MIMO 4x2 2x2 MIMO + BF 120 LTE Downlink Data Rates
MIMO MIMO MIMO
Theory 100
(Peak) 7.2 9.3 14.4 21.0 28.8 36.7 36.7 58.0 61.0
80
Likely
Average 3.0 3.75 3.6 3.7 4.2 6.0 6.6 2.9 3.1 60
40
Rural Carriers Typically Have 5 MHz up and 5 20

MHz down 0
1.4 MHz/ 3 MHz/ 5 MHz/ 10 MHz/ 20 MHz/
1.4MHz 3 MHz 5MHz 10 MHz 20 MHz

100 Mbps is NOT possible with this much spectrum
Theory

OFDMA (LTE/WiMAX) benefit is much less at lower (Peak) 8.8 22.1 36.7 73.4 150.8
Likely
bandwidths Average 1.6 3.9 6.6 12.8 25.8

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 What is 4G? LTE and WiMAX Architectures

GSM
HLR
UMTS
RNC

HSPA SGSN GGSN

Separate Voice / IP Air Channels
Separate CS / PS Core Networks

HSS
PCRF

LTE
e

Common Packet (IP) Air Channel Common Enhanced (IP) Packet Core

Subscriber
PCRF Mgmt

WiMAX
WiMAX
WiMAX BS Access
Controller

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Business Drivers for 4G in Rural Markets

Become a Wireless Provider or Enhance Current Wireless Offer

Broadband Data Demand
 Mobile Broadband
 Fixed Broadband (DSL/fiber alternative)

Roaming Possibilities with Tier 1/2s (but when will it start?)

Attract/Maintain Subscribers Before Tier 1/2s Come Into Town

Public Safety Mobile Data Solutions

Leverage Broadband Stimulus $s from American Recovery and Reinvestment

Act
 Could turn marginal or negative business cases into positive ones

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 American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) of 2009
Stimulus of ~$7B towards Broadband

$4.35B for grants through the Department of Commerces National Telecommunications
and Information Administration (NTIA) pursuant to a new Broadband Technology
Opportunities Program (BTOP)

$2.5B for grants, loans, and loan guarantees for broadband infrastructure through the
Department of Agricultures Rural Utilities Service (RUS)

NTIA schedule: Three distinct grant periods
 April-June 2009, October-December 2009, April-June 2010.
 Funding may be roughly 1/3 of total funds in each round.

RUSs schedule: Three distinct grant periods
 First within 60-90 days; two more rounds each about 3-4 months later (similar to NTIA)

Applicants can pursue funding from both RUS and NTIA, and for the same project, as
long as both are not funding the same piece of equipment

Strong indication from NTIA that projects must demonstrate that they would not be
built absent funding

Multiple small/medium awards vs fewer large awards
Were All Waiting for the Stimulus Fund Application Process to be Rolled Out

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4G Challenges: You Need Spectrum
LTE deployable in licensed bands
 FDD : 2.6 GHz, 2.3 GHz, 2.1 GHz,1900 MHz,1800 MHz,1700/2100 MHz, 1500
MHz, 900 MHz, 850 MHz, 700 MHz, 450 MHz.
 TDD : 2.6 GHz, 2.3 GHz, 1.9/2.1 GHz
North America Europe, Middle East, Africa Asia Pacific

1.5 GHz (Japan)

2.1 GHz 2009
2009
2.6 GHz (Japan)

AWS (1700/2100 MHz)
2.6 GHz
2009

700 MHz
2.1 GHz (Japan)

900 MHz (re-farm) 2009+
Future
2.3-2.4 GHz (China)

1.8 GHz (re-farm)

470-854 MHz (digital

Future

850 MHz (re-farm)
450 MHz (re-farm) dividend)
Future

1.9 GHz (re-farm) Future
470-854 MHz (digital
dividend) Future
1.8 GHz (re-farm)

Note: Represents estimated timeframe of when infrastructure will

become available for LTE deployment not necessarily devices
WiMAX deployable in licensed and un-licensed bands
 TDD : 2.5 GHz, 3.65 GHz, 700 MHz, 900 MHz, . . .
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4G Challenges You Need AFFORDABLE Devices
WiMAX Has Many Today (at 2.5/3.5) . . . LTE Has A Ways To Go
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014+
H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1

Field Trials Early LTE Launches LTE Adoption Increasing Wide Scale LTE Adoption

Vendor 1 1st Gen LTE

Vendor 1 2nd Gen LTE
Vendor 2 1st Gen LTE
Vendor 2 2nd Gen LTE
Vendor 3 1st Gen LTE
LTE Ecosystem
Vendor 3 2nd Gen LTE will be
Vendor 4 1st Gen LTE
established by
Vendor 4 2nd Gen LTE mid 2011 or later
Vendor 5 1st Gen LTE
Vendor 5 2nd Gen LTE
Vendor 6 1st Gen LTE
Vendor 6 2nd Gen LTE

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4G (LTE) Challenges You Need Devices For Your Spectrum
3GPP Device Band Plan Ones Applicable to US

Band 4 AWS Bands [Driven By AT&T and MetroPCS)

Band 13 700 MHz Upper C [Driven By Verizon]

Band 12 700 MHz Lower A/B/C [No One Driving]

Band 17 700 MHz Lower B/C [Driven By AT&T]
Rural Carriers have 850, 1900, AWS and 700 Lower A/B/C

Initial data cards from established vendors is focused on Band 13, followed
by Band 4 and 17; high end voice/data handsets will follow 6-12 months
after data cards

No known devices for Band 12 yet (due to interference issues of lower A)

When do these devices become affordable?

Will there be exclusivity issues with LTE devices? There are today with
WiMAX and GSM/UMTS devices.
UMTS Data Cards Are $60-$100 today (7.2 Mbps)
LTE Data Cards Could Be $300+ in 2H2010

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 4G (LTE) Challenges: Spectrum Migration

Current Future Scenario

OR Existing UMTS or CDMA
850 1900 700 850 1900 AWS Add New Band

Capacity Driven
New spectrum application
Existing UMTS or CDMA Add new band for LTE Hot spots / femto cells

Existing GSM and UMTS

850 1900 AWS 850 1900 AWS Refarm Existing Band

Capacity Driven
New spectrum application
Existing GSM and UMTS Refarm band to add LTE Hot spots / femto cells
Existing GSM and UMTS
850 1900 850 1900 Refarm Existing Carriers

Coverage Driven
Existing GSM and UMTS Refarm carriers to grow UMTS/add LTE Free GSM carriers to grow
UMTS and later add LTE
Greenfield Deployment
700 AWS 700 OR
AWS Refarm Carrier
OR
Smooth LTE Introduction
Nothing Deploy UMTS Refarm carrier Deploy UMTS or CDMA and
Available or CDMA to add LTE refarm to later add LTE

Legend GSM UMTS CDMA LTE

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4G Challenges: Voice Solutions
WiMAX

VoIP Solutions are available for Residential Gateway devices
 Home phone can plug into device, or SIP client on PC can be used
 Prioritize voice packets over data packets

Mobile handsets for voice/data not readily available

LTE

3GPP standards for voice support are based on VoIP via IMS

The standards are not yet finalized for E911 support
 For greenfield LTE deployments, voice will be initially challenging. VZW and other current wireless
carriers are focused on data over LTE and voice via existing infrastructure (e.g. CDMA or GSM/UMTS)

Alternate solutions like Voice over LTE Generic Access (VoLGA) being discussed

And, for VoIP/IMS, Circuit Switch Fall Back (CSFB) is needed for handoff/hand-in
scenarios between 3G/LTE

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4G: US Activity

WiMAX

Clearwire rolling out in NFL cities (2.5 GHz)

Open Range Communications pursuing rural cities (2.486 GHz)

Several rural carriers at 700 MHz (lower A/B/C) or 3.865 GHz (with closed solutions)

LTE

Verizon city roll-out begins in 2H2010 (700 MHz upper C)

MetroPCS roll-out begins in 2H2010 (AWS)

Cox Cable considering roll-out in late 2010 or 2011 (AWS, 700 MHz lower A/B)

AT&T to deploy HSPA+ first, LTE roll-out in 2012 (?) (700 MHz lower B/C)

Many rural carriers are interested want to deploy ASAP (700 MHz lower A/B/C or AWS)

State/Local entities are requesting Public Safety solutions for 2H2010 (700 MHz upper D)

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Potential Timeline for 700 MHz LTE ? (Patel View)
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Standards Interval from standards to mass
Complete roll-out has taken 4-6 years for
2.5G and 3G solutions, this
timeline shows a 2.5 year interval
for LTE (very aggressive)
1st LTE
devices (CI)
OFDM/MIMO Demos (data cards)

1st LTE
LTE Tech Commercial
Trials Handsets

First
Customer
Trials
Initial LTE
Deployments Affordable Affordable
Data cards Handsets

LTE Mass Rollout

Vendors are aggressively building solutions in anticipation of a quick roll-out.

However, there is debate in the industry on when there will be sufficient end-user
demand for 4G data speeds, that can support the capital outlay necessary for LTE.

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Rural Carrier Deployment Scenario

WiMAX

Deploy if you have 2.5 GHz spectrum (licensed spectrum)

Consider for 3.865 GHz (registered spectrum)

Consider for 700 MHz (licensed spectrum, but only closed solutions available)

Consider 900 MHz or other unlicensed spectrum

LTE

If you have 700 MHz, monitor LTE data card availability, deploy in 2H2010 or
early 2011 ?? (affordable devices may not be available until much later)

For 850/1900/AWS start with UMTS (7.2 and 14.4 Mbps) and evolve to HSPA+
(45 Mbps), and then go to LTE when affordable handsets are available

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Greenfield Wireless Positioning Matrix United States
Technology
WiMAX LTE CDMA/EV-D0 W-CDMA/HSPA
Standards IEEE802.16e 3GPP 3GPP2 3GPP
Market Environment

Market Perception 3.5G 3.9G or 4G 3G or 3.5G 3G or 3.5G

Full Mobility (to
Fixed, nomadic and
Mobility 350 km/h) Mobile Mobile
simple mobility
2G/3G HandOff
Standards Complete 2005 2009
Initial Deployments 2007 2010
Mass Market 2009 2012 2000/2006
Spectrum 2.3, 2.5 GHz 700, AWS 850, 1900, AWS 850, 1900, AWS
Technology Blocks

DL: OFDMA
Modulation S-OFDMA CDMA CDMA
UL: SC-FDMA
TDD, FDD (new
Duplex Scheme FDD, TDD (2011) FDD FDD
profile)
DL: 2 X 2 DL: 2X2, 4X2
MIMO Schemes No Not Typical
UL: 1 X 2 UL: 1X2, 2X2
Flat Very Flat Heirarchical
Core/Latency Heirarchical
30ms 10ms 50ms
Bit Rates DL: DL: 32.0 DL: 9.3 DL: 10.1
Capabilities

Mbps (5 Mhz) UL: UL: 14.7 UL: 5.4 UL: 6.0

Voice Capacity
160 80 50
Erl (5 Mhz)
Voice VoIP VoIP (2011) Circuit Circuit
Data Yes Yes Yes Yes
Video Yes Yes Yes Yes
Voice Capacity for LTE/W-CDMA with AMR12.2, CDMA with EVRC
Bit Rates for LTE (2x2, 16QAM), HSPA (Rel 6, 1x2, 2008), EV-DO Rev A(1x2, 2006)

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Conclusion

Its been a long climb to get to

high end user data rates via
mobile broadband . . .

But just when we

HSPA/EVDO and
WiMAX (TDD) think were
close, it turns
out we still have
a ways to go!
LTE

WiMAX (FDD)

27 | Migration to 4G | April 2009 All Rights Reserved Alcatel-Lucent 2009