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CURRENT TOPIC ASSIGNMENT

Topic: South China Sea Dispute

By, Group 2 (Section B)

Shweta Khurana (160103130)

Shubhi Arya (160103159)

Nishant Vatsa (160103090)

Karan Arora (160103065)

Siddhant Gupta (160103131)

Piyanshu Agrawal (160103096)

Mudit Gambhir (160103085)

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Contents
Background ................................................................................................................................................... 3
Who has built what? ..................................................................................................................................... 3
Chinas Nine-Dash Line .............................................................................................................................. 4
Who has China got on its side? ..................................................................................................................... 5
Recent flashpoints ........................................................................................................................................ 6
What does international law say? ................................................................................................................ 8
Principal Economic Interest .......................................................................................................................... 9
What Next? ................................................................................................................................................. 10
Sources ........................................................................................................................................................ 13

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Background

Territorial and jurisdictional disputes in the South China Sea continue to strain relations
between China and other countries in Southeast Asia, risking a military escalation. To
protect its political, security, and economic interests in the region, the United States has
challenged Chinas assertive territorial claims and land reclamation efforts by conducting
freedom of navigation operations and bolstering support for Southeast Asian partners.
China claims South China Sea based on its history from Xia and Han dynasties. China
describes its claim via the nine-dash line, which Chiang Kai Shek advanced in 1947. A total
of 291 islands and reefs have been surveyed, mapped and named by China in the region.
However, United States opposes the claim by saying that South China Sea is international
water and sovereignty in the area should be determined by the United Nations
Convention on Laws of the Sea (UNCLOS). According to UNCLOS, countries cant claim
sovereignty over any land masses that are submerged at high tide, or that were previously
submerged but have been raised above high tide level by construction.
China maintains that under international law, foreign militaries are not able to conduct
intelligence gathering activities, such as reconnaissance flights, in its exclusive economic
zone (EEZ). According to the United States, countries should have freedom of
navigation through EEZs in the sea and are not required to notify claimants of military
activities. Chinas claims threaten sea lines of communication, which are important
maritime passages that facilitate trade and the movement of naval forces.

Who has built what?

Several countries have artificially constructed or expanded islands in the sea to expand
their claims to territory, and extend their exclusive economic zones. China, Vietnam, the
Philippines, Taiwan and Malaysia have built airstrips capable of holding cargo,
surveillance or fighter jets in the sea, according to satellite images analyzed by
Washington-based think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies.

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 Chinas activities in the South China Sea have been the most expansive and
controversial, outpacing all other nations in their efforts to claim territory. China has built
or expanded at least seven artificial islands in the sea since 2014, according to CSIS. The
massive construction effort has been dubbed the great wall of sand by U.S. officials.

China has built three airstrips on the contested Spratly Islands to extend its presence in
disputed waters, and militarized Woody Island by deploying fighter jets, cruise missiles,
and a radar system. China has warned its Southeast Asian neighbors against drilling for oil
and gas in the contested region, which has disrupted other nations oil exploration and
seismic survey activities. To challenge Chinas claims in international waters, the United
States has occasionally deployed destroyer ships on freedom of navigation operations in
the South China Sea to promote freedom of passage.

Beijing controls the largest piece of reclaimed land in the South China Sea called Mischief
Reef, which CSIS measured to be around 60 million square feet. Satellite images taken last
September showed the country apparently building a third runway on Mischief Reef.
Recent images also appeared to show Chinese-installed surface-to-air missiles and high-
frequency radar systems on the Paracel and Spratly islands respectively.

Chinas Nine-Dash Line

Perhaps the most fundamental perceptual gap between the United States and China
revolves around the actual definition and level of clarity of Chinas claims in the South
China Sea. From Chinas perspective, its claims in the South China Sea broadly
delineated by what China refers to as the nine-dash line, extending roughly 1,118 miles
(1,800 kilometers) from Hainan Island to the waters off equatorial Borneo, which
reportedly encompasses about 86 percent of the South China Seas entire surface area
are firmly grounded in history and clear-cut to the point of being self-evident and
indisputable.

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 In contrast, the United States (along with many other countries, claimants and non-
claimants alike) perceives Chinas nine-dash line claim whatever its historical and legal
merits to be ill-defined and ambiguous.
U.S. officials are often unclear, for
example, as to what, exactly, the Chinese
purport to be claiming: e.g., the entirety of
the territory and water within the nine-
dash line; all land features within the nine-
dash line, plus the maritime swaths that
those features command under the terms
of the United Nations Convention on the
Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) (e.g., in certain
cases, 12-nautical mile territorial seas and
200-nautical mile exclusive economic
zones); only the land features but not the
adjacent waters; only the UNCLOS-claimable land features, but not certain other land
features or waters; or some other configuration of land and/or water.

Who has China got on its side?

Russia has backed Beijings position that direct talks should take place. And portraying
itself as the victim of a US conspiracy to contain its rise, Beijing has scoured the globe for
supporters in its case, no matter how disconnected they might be from the subject. In
late May, the foreign ministry in Beijing said Vanuatu, Lesotho and Palestine had joined
its side. Countries that harbor no selfish interests and understand the South China Sea
sympathies with and endorse Chinas just position on this issue, spokesperson Hua
Chunying said.

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 Townshend said China had good historical reasons to be concerned about more powerful
external countries ganging up on it and telling it what it is entitled to do and not do.
[But] it is very difficult for China to play the victim card when you look at the scale and
speed and content of what it has built and put on the islands.

Recent flashpoints
The most serious trouble in recent decades has flared between Vietnam and China, and there
have also been stand-offs between the Philippines and China. Some of the incidents include:

In 1974, the Chinese seized the Paracels from Vietnam, killing more than 70 Vietnamese
troops.
o Paracel Islands:The Paracels, which occupy roughly 7.75 square kilometers (4.8
square miles), are claimed by China and Vietnam. French Indochina annexed the
territory in 1932 and in 1974, China occupied the islands, building a military
installation with an airfield and harbor. The islands also boast fishing and natural
resources.
In 1988, the two sides clashed in the Spratlys, with Vietnam again coming off worse, losing
about 60 sailors.
o Spratly Island: The Spratlys are a cluster of more than one hundred small islands
and reefs that together measure less than five square kilometres (3.1 square
miles). The territory is host to rich fishing grounds and oil and gas deposits, and is
claimed by China, Vietnam, Malaysia, and the Philippines. All claimants occupy a
toehold on roughly half of the islands
In early 2012, China and the Philippines engaged in a lengthy maritime stand-off, accusing
each other of intrusions in the Scarborough Shoal.
Unverified claims that the Chinese navy sabotaged two Vietnamese exploration
operations in late 2012 led to large anti-China protests on Vietnam's streets.
In January 2013, Manila said it was taking China to a UN tribunal under the auspices of
the UN Convention on the Laws of the Sea, to challenge its claims.

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 In 2013, then-Philippine President Benigno Aquino effectively sued Beijing using a United
Nations tribunal to allege violation of sovereign rights. It won the case in July 2016 just as
Chinas growing military presence was becoming a hot U.S. presidential topic.
In May 2014, the introduction by China of a drilling rig into waters near the Paracel Islands
led to multiple collisions between Vietnamese and Chinese ships

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What does international law say?

The 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea says that countries have
special access to marine resources, including fisheries, oil and gas, in the area up to 200
nautical miles from its shores, called exclusive economic zones.

China, Vietnam, the Philippines and Malaysia have all ratified the treaty. The U.S. has not,
as Republican senators blocked the ratification, arguing the treaty infringed upon U.S.
sovereignty in its maritime operations.

China asserts the right to monitor foreign navy and troop activities within its exclusive
economic zones. The U.S. rejects this interpretation, saying that all countries have
the freedom to navigate the seas and airspace around a countrys region.

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Principal Economic Interest

11 Billion Estimated Barrels of Oil

190 Trillion Estimated Number of Cubic Feet of Natural Gas in South China

$5.3 Trillion Total Annual Trade Passing Through South China Sea

Fishing: According to the U.S.-based Center for Naval Analyses, China has the largest fishing
industry in the world, catching an estimated 13.9 million tons of fish in 2012, which constituted
17.4 percent of the world total.

Fossil fuels: H-981 Oil Rig in the Paracel Islands; the China National Offshore Oil Corporation
(CNOOC), the only Chinese company with deep sea drilling technology, opened up energy
reserves near the Paracels in June 2012 to international bids in a move to dissuade Vietnams
foreign lessees from developing the oil and gas resources in those blocks. CNOOC also deployed
the deep-water drilling platform HYSY 981 near the Paracel Islands in May 2014, leading to severe
protests from Vietnam. The rig was removed in July, a month before scheduled completion of
drilling activities. CNOOC later claimed that it had all the data it needed and would study it in
Hainan.
Shipping lanes, trade: According to the U.S.-based Center for Naval Analyses, top Chinese official
are concerned seaborne trade security, and that a 2015 defense white papers gave prominence
to PLA sea lane protection.

Tourism: Hainan district government efforts to nurture tourism on the Paracel and Spratly islands
and has sparked protests from fellow claimants.

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What Next?

Beyond freedom of navigation missions, the United States is focused on strengthening

regional allies. To do so, it will help boost its allies intelligence gathering and surveillance
capabilities, and provide them with updated military hardware to counter Chinas
technical advantages in both quantity and quality.

Japan, in close coordination with the United States, is to supply military hardware to the
Philippines and Vietnam.

The United States, which maintains important interests in ensuring freedom of navigation
and securing sea lines of communication, has expressed support for an agreement on a
binding code of conduct and other confidence-building measures. The United States has
a role in preventing military escalation resulting from the territorial dispute.

However, Washingtons defense treaty with Manila could draw the United States into a
China-Philippines conflict over the substantial natural gas deposits in the disputed Reed

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 Bank or the lucrative fishing grounds of the Scarborough Shoal. A dispute between China
and Vietnam over territorial claims could also threaten the military and commercial
interests of the United States. The failure of Chinese and Southeast Asian leaders to
resolve the disputes by diplomatic means could undermine international laws governing
maritime disputes and encourage destabilizing arms buildups.

The dispute between the United States and China is likely to escalate to some degree. U.S.
Pacific Command planners are preparing to sail and fly within 12 nautical miles of areas
that China claims as sovereign territory. The USS Fort Worth and a P-8 surveillance aircraft
have already operated close by, and while China objected, it did not take hostile action.

However, China has stated that it will defend what it considers its territorial limit. If the
Chinese government blinks, it could suffer domestically due to the loss of face for the
Communist Party. If the United States wavers, it will risk perpetuating the impression,
among U.S. partners and allies, that it lacks resolve in light of its policy in the Middle East,
Iraq and Ukraine.

The stakes are high for both sides, as is the risk of a miscalculation. The United States
is marshaling major allies in the region to take a role, in the hope that the combined
weight of U.S., Japanese and Australian forces will give China pause.

The stakes of this geostrategic standoff are rising with the number of naval ships, fighter
jets and drones facing off in Asian seas. Chinas giant and opaque land reclamation
projects are placing its military hardware throughout the region and pulling archrival
Japan out of retirement. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is working to shed Japans post-war
pacifism by amending the constitution. The odds of a mistake, miscalculation or
miscommunication -- two aircraft or ships colliding, for example -- are rising.

Along with Chinas bullying tactics, North Koreas provocations have U.S. aircraft carriers
increasingly showing up in the region. Having a growing number of military vessels and
planes in such close proximity is inherently dangerous.

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 In recent years, Nouriel Roubini and other economists famed for predicting Black-Swan
shocks ranked South China Sea threats higher than North Korea. Well, both dangers are
reaching a fever pitch simultaneously, while nationalists Xi, Abe, Trump and Kim Jong Un
look to flex muscles abroad.

The greatest irony is that the Asian century looks more like the era of General Dynamics,
Northrop Grumman, Raytheon and the rest of the U.S. military-industrial complex racing
to open offices around the region. These defense giants are positioning themselves for a
piece of the greatest arms races since World War II, one thats just getting started.

As Asia lacks a European Union, NATO or other overarching authority to settle grievances,
to keep this proxy war from becoming a real one, the rest of 2017 boils down to hope for
the best -- but brace for the worst.

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Sources

http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/2015/06/09/everything-you-need-to-know-about-the-
south-china-sea-conflict-in-under-five-minutes/

https://www.cfr.org/interactives/global-conflict-tracker#!/conflict/territorial-disputes-in-the-
south-china-sea

https://www.peacepalacelibrary.nl/library-special/south-china-sea-territorial-disputes/

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/10/world/asia/indonesia-south-china-sea-military-
buildup.html?mcubz=1

https://projects.voanews.com/south-china-sea/china/

https://www.forbes.com/sites/outofasia/2017/08/22/making-sense-of-the-south-china-sea-
dispute/#2e4c55431c3b

https://flipboard.com/@pachysandra/leadership-readings-i4eik1h3z

http://thediplomat.com/2016/08/the-us-china-perception-gap-in-the-south-china-sea/

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-pacific-13748349

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/south-china-sea-disputes-
explained_us_56ccd9ede4b041136f18ad3d

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