Contents

Introduction 3

Factorsthataffectperformance 4

Applyingpointstoafactor 58

Weighingupourchosenfactors 9

Ratinghorses 1013

Turningratingsintoodds 14

Comparingtofindvalue 15

OddsLines 16

Alwaystestbeforebetting 1719

Conclusion 20
Introduction

Hieveryone,andthanksfordownloadingmyguidetocreatingyourownodds
forHorseRacing.

WhenpeoplethinkofcreatingTissueoddsastheyarewidelycalledby
bookiesandpunters,thegeneralconsensusisthatcompilingoddsisalong
andcomplexprocess.

WhileitistruethatinHorseRacingthereareabroadspectrumoffactorsthat
canaffectahorse'sperformanceinanygivenrace,itisntnecessary(oroften
evenpossible)totakeintoaccounteverysinglefactorwhenattemptingto
createyourownodds.

ThroughoutthismanualImgoingtoshowyouastraightforwardandlesstime
consumingmethodofoddscreation.Itinvolvesfirstlychoosingasetoffactors
fromthespectrumthatwethinkarelikelytoaffectahorsesperformance,then
weighingupandratingeachhorseinaracebasedonthesefactors.

Iwillthenshownyouhowtoconverttheseratingsintoodds,andcompareour
oddswiththeoddsavailableforeachhorseintherace.Thiswillallowusto
identifywhetherwecanobtainvaluebyplacingabetononeormorehorsesin
thatrace.

3
Factorsthataffectperformance

Asalreadymentioned,thereareahugerangeoffactorsthatcanbetakeninto
considerationwhenanalysingagivenrace.Thisincludesbutisnotlimitedto
thefollowing:

RaceType Going
Racecourse NumberofRunners
Distance Class
TrainerForm Age
Sex Weight
OfficialRating Fitness
Pace Stamina
Character Temperament
PositioninMarket Equipment/Headgear
Jockeyship Greenness

ThelistgoesonIamnotgoingtogointomoredetailoneachfactororwewill
beherefordaysonend!InsteadImgoingtochooseasetoffactorswhichin
myopinionareimportanttoconsiderwhenanalysingagivenrace.Themore
factorswechoose,themoreaccurateouroddswillbecome,howeverthe
processwillalsobecomemoretimeconsuming.

Tobeginwith,choosing5or6factorswillbesufficient.Throughpractiseand
testingwecanthenbegintoaddmorefactors,ortakeawaythosewhichwe
deemlessimportant.

4
Applyingpointstoafactor

Iwillbeusinganexampletodemonstratetheprocesswegothroughwhen
creatingourodds.FormyexampleIhavechosenasetof6factors,whichare:

1.Going
2.Racecourse
3.Distance
4.Class
5.Fitness
6.Weight

Firstlywearegoingtouseapointscoringsystemtorateourhorsesforeachof
theabovefactors.TodothisIscoreahorsehigherorlowerdependingonhow
wellIdeemittohavepreviouslyperformedforthatparticularfactor.

Imakeasetofcriteriaforeachfactor,andtheamountofpointsahorseis
givendependsonthecriteriaitpasses,forexample:

Going
wononsamegoing5points
goodrunonsamegoing4points
wononsimilargoing3points
goodrunonsimilargoing2points
neverranongoingbefore1point
onlybadrunsonsame/similargoing0points

Goingnotes
Agoodrunisclassedasaraceinwhichthehorsefinishedwithinalengthperfurlongofthe
winneri.einan8furlongrace,thehorsemusthavefinishedwithin4lengthsofthewinner,ina20
furlongracewith10lengthsofthewinneretc.

5
Similargoingisclassedasbeingonecatergoryawayineitherdirectionofthecurrentracei.e
goodtofirmandgoodtosoftarebothsimilartogood,softissimilartoheavyetc.

Ineedtomakeasetofcriteriaforeachfactor,whichdoestakealittletimebut
weonlyhavetodothisonceandthesecriteriacanthenbeusedforeachrace
wecreateoddsfor.

Soformyremainingfivefactors:

Racecourse
wonatracecourse5points
goodrunatracecourse3points
neverranatracecoursebefore1point
Onlybadrunsatracecourse0points

Distance
wonatsamedistance5points
goodrunatsamedistance4points
wonwithin2fofdistance3points
goodrunwithin2fofdistance2points
wonorgoodrunwithin3fofdistance1point
nogoodrunswithin3fofdistance0points

Distancenotes
f=furlong

Class
wonathigherclass5points
goodrunathigherclass4points

6
wonatsameclass4points
goodrunatsameclass2points
wonatlowerclass1point
goodrunatlowerclassorworse0points

Classnotes
Awinatthesameclassandgoodrunatahigherclassisdeemedsimilar,andistherefore
meritedwiththesamenumberofpoints.

Fitness
wonwithin20days5points
goodrunwithin20days4points
wonwithin40days3points
goodrunwithin40days2points
goodrunwithin60days1point
nogoodrunswithin60days0points

Weight
wonat>6lbheavier5points
goodrunat>6lbheavier4points
wonwithin6lbofcurrentweight3points
goodrunwithin6lbofcurrentweight2points
wonat>6lblighter1point
goodrunat>6lblighterorworse0points

Weightnotes
>=morethan

7
TopTip
WhenmakingyourowncriteriaIwouldkeepitasshortandsweetas
possiblehugelistsofcriteriaforeachfactorwillmakethewholeprocess
morecomplexandtimeconsuming.

Ifyouareanexperiencedpunter,Imsureyoualreadyhavesomeideasforthe
setsofcriteriayouwouldusefordifferentfactors.

Ifyouareabeginnerorareotherwiseunsurehowtocreateyourowncriteria,
sticktousingtheabovefactorstobeginwith.Thereisofcoursealearning
curvehere,butafterratingafewracesusingthismethodyouwillstarttothink
ofideasforyourowncriteria,andovertimeyoucandevelopandtweakthese
asyouseefit.

8
Weighingupourchosenfactors

Onefinalthingtoconsiderbeforestartingtorateourhorsesiswhetherornotto
addweighttothefactorsweconsidertobethemostimportantinourset.

Forexample,ifIthoughtthegoingwasmoreimportantthantheotherfactorsin
myset,Icouldchoosetoaddweighttothisfactorbyincreasingthenumberof
pointsgiveninmycriteria:

Going
wononsamegoing10points
goodrunonsamegoing8points
wononsimilargoing6points
goodrunonsimilargoing4points
neverranongoingbefore2points
onlybadrunsonsame/similargoing0points

Ofcourse,weighingupfactorsisonlyanoptionandifyoupreferallfactorsto
weighevenly,simplymakethecriteriapointsforeachfactorthesame.

FormyexampleImgoingtoweigheachofmyfactorsevenly.

9
Ratinghorses

Nowthatwevedoneallthepreparation,letsgetdowntoratingsomehorses.
Theinformationweneedwilldependonourchosenfactors,butforthevast
majoritywecangettheinfofromTheRacingPostwebsiteat
www.racingpost.com.

Imgoingtousetodays4.20Ayrraceformyexample.Loadingthisraceupwe
willbepresentedwitharacecardlikethis:

10
Ivecircledtherelevantinformationforourfactorsinred.Ivealsomademyself
aspreadsheettorecordmyratings,likethis:

going racecourse distance class fitness weight total

KnockgraffonKing
OilBurner
MisterPhilson
TheFriary
OutlawTom

total

Illrunthroughratingthefavourite,whichisKnockgraffonKing.Forthegoing
wecanseethisraceissoftfromtheabovecard.Wewillneedtogointothe
previousracedetailstogettheinfoweneedtodothisclickonthehorses
name.

TopTip
WhenLookingatahorsesracehistory,thefurtherwegobacktheless
relevantthedatabecomes.Ithereforerecommendonlyusingthepast1
yearofracedataforyourratings.

11
Againivecircledtheinformationthatsrelevanttous.Thegoingisnotatedafter
thecourseanddistanceseetheSftcircledinred.Aswecansee,
knockgraffonkinghasracedtwiceonsoftgroundwithoutawin,butoneis
classedasagoodrun(finishedwithinalengthperfurlongofthewinner),so
thatcountsfor4points.

RacecourseWeareracingatAyrtoday,acoursewhichourhorsehasnever
previouslyracedat,soweonlygive1pointasperourcriteria.

DistanceTheRacecardshowsthatthisraceis25furlongslong,andlooking
aboveatthepreviousracedatawefindracedistancesafterthecoursename.

12
Thepreviousracewas24furlongswhichisthelongestdistanceKnockgraffon
Kinghasran,sohegets3pointshere.

ClassTodaysraceisaclass4.Ourhorseslastracewasaclass3,anda
winningrunsohescoresthemaximum5points.

FitnessForthisweneedtolookatthedates.Todaysdateisthe20thFeb(I
know,itsnotbutletspretend)andourhorseslastracewasonthe4thJan.
Thisfallswithinthe60daypointbracketbutnohighersojustthe1point
awarded.

WeightKnockgraffonKingiscarryingahefty1112today,andpreviouslythe
besthehasdoneiscarry1013tovictory,soanother1pointforweight.

Soweenterourpointsinthetable,rinseandrepeatwitheachhorseuntilwe
haveacompletedtablelikethis:

going racecourse distance class fitness weight total

KnockgraffonKing 4 1 3 5 1 1 15
OilBurner 3 5 5 4 3 5 25
MisterPhilson 3 1 5 4 0 3 16
TheFriary 5 1 5 4 0 3 18
OutlawTom 0 1 0 0 0 0 1

total 75

13
Turningratingsintoodds

Tocreateouroddsweneedtofirstlydividetheratingofeachhorsebythe
combinedtotalofalltheratingsintherace,likeso:

KnockgraffonKing:15/75=0.2
OilBurner:25/75=0.3333
MisterPhilson:16/75=0.2133
TheFriary:18/75=0.24
OutlawTom:1/75=0.0133

Thesenumbersshowthepercentagechanceeachhorsehasofwinning
accordingtoourratings,expressedasadecimal.

Togettheoddsfigureforeachhorse,weperformthecalculation1/x,wherex
isourdecimalfigureabove:

KnockgraffonKing:1/0.2=5
OilBurner:1/0.3333=3
MisterPhilson:1/0.2133=4.69
TheFriary:1/0.24=4.17
OutlawTom:1/0.0133=75.19

Congratulations,youhavecreatedyourowndecimaloddsforeach
horseintherace!

14
Comparingtofindvalue

Nowthatwehaveouroddsweneedtotakealookatwhatthecurrentmarket
oddsare.ThebestplacetogetthisinformationisBetfairatwww.betfair.com.

Loadingupourrace,wewillseeanoddsmarketlikethis:

WewanttocompareourownoddstothosecurrentlyavailableonBetfair,which
aretheoddsshownintheblueboxesabove.

ourodds betfairodds
KnockgraffonKing 5 2.8
OilBurner 3 3
MisterPhilson 4.69 6.6
TheFriary 4.17 6.6
OutlawTom 75.19 26

WearelookingforhorseswheretheBetfairoddsonofferarehigherthanour
ownoddspossiblevalue.

15
OddsLines

Thesearesomethingwecreatetoallowamarginoferrorouroddsmaynot
beallthataccurate.Todothis,choosehowmuchhighertheavailableodds
havetobebeforeweareconfidentitsavaluebet.

TopTip
TostartoffwithIrecommendputtinganoddsline20%higherthanourown
odds.Thisisbecauseattheoutsetourfactorsorratingcriteriaarelikelyto
createlessaccurateoddsthanthoseofsomeonemoreexperienced.

Tomakea20%oddslinesimplytaketheoddswehavecreatedandmultiply
by1.2.Fora10%oddslinemultiplyby1.1,andfor30%1.3andsoon.Our
newoddsshowwhattheBetfairoddsneedtobeaboveforustoconsiderthis
avaluebet.

ourodds after20%oddsline betfairodds

KnockgraffonKing 5 6 2.8
OilBurner 3 3.6 3
MisterPhilson 4.69 5.63 6.6
TheFriary 4.17 5 6.6
OutlawTom 75.19 90.23 26

SobothMisterPhilsonandTheFriaryhavehigheravailableoddsonBetfair
thantheoddswecreated,evenafteraddinga20%oddsline.

16
Alwaystestbeforebetting

TheBetfairoddsmaybehigherthanourownafterapplyinganoddsline,but
thisdoesntmeanweshouldjumpstraightintothebetting.

Whenusingnewfactorsandcriteriaweshouldalwaystestbeforebetting.This
isaprocessmadeeasythankstoBetfair.

Asyoumayormaynotalreadyknow,BetfairStartPrice(BSP)offersthe
closestmeasurementtothetrueoddsofagivenhorsethatwecanhopeto
find.Imnotgoingtodiscussthissubjectindetailhereasitsalengthyone,but
ifyouwantmoreinfo.takealookatthisarticle:

http://www.probabilitytheory.info/content/item/15theefficiencyofthebettingex
changemarkets

Sufficeittosaythataslongastheoddswehavetakenarehigherthanthe
BSP,wecancallitavaluebet.

Forthepurposeoftestingwhetherornotwehavefoundvaluewepapertrade
atfirst,makingsuretonotethecurrentBetfairoddsforourpotentialbets.

WethencomparethepricewetooktoBSPoncetheraceisfinished.Iuse
TimeformforthisasTheRacingPostdoesntrecordBSPinitsresultsgoto
http://form.horseracing.betfair.com/daypage.

17
Herearetheresultsfromourexample:

Soamixedbagofresults.Mixedbag,yousay?Butourtwohorsescamefirst
andsecond!

Whilethatmaywellbethecase,theBSPofbothhorses,7.29and6.8,are
bothhigherthantheoddsavailableearlier6.6forbothhorses.Soalthoughit
wasagreatresult,unlesstheoddswecreatedturnedouttobemoreaccurate
thanBSP(Thelikelihoodofthisisslimatbest)wedidntgetvalueonthese
bets.

Moretestingwillneedtobedonetoseewhetherornotwearepickingwinners
consistently,andwhethertheearlypricebeatsBSPmoreoftenthannot.

18
IftheearlyoddsarehigherthanBSP,wehaveavaluebet.Aslongas
weareplacingvaluebetsthemajorityofthetime,wecannotfailtoearn
profitsfromthismethodofbetting.

TopTip
Whereveryouchoosetoplaceyourbets,takinganearlypriceisessentialto
gettingvalue.Thenearerwegettothestartofarace,thecloserthemarket
pricegetstothetrueodds.Ithereforerecommendtakinganearlyto
midmorningpricewithaBOG(bestoddsguaranteed)bookie.

19
Conclusion

Creatingyourownoddsusingthisprocesscanindeedallowustofindvalue
bets,whichinevitablyleadstoprofits.Ofcourse,itsnotaflawlesssystem(if
thereissuchathing!)ithasitsprosandcons:

Pros
Itcanreducethetimetakentocompileoddsfromhourstominutes.
Itallowsustoextendourbettingknowledgeeachtimewecreateodds.
Flexibilitydifferentpuntershavedifferentbettingniches.Thismethodallows
ustochooseourownspecificfactorsfromthespectrum.
Nocomplexalgorithmsyoudonthavetobeamathsgeniustofollowthis
method.

Cons
Stilltimeconsumingaracecantake1030minutestopriceupdependingon
howmanyfactorsweuse,andthenumberofhorsesinarace.
Themoreaccuratewewantouroddstobe,themorecomplicatedtheprocess
becomes.
Trialanderrorwemightnotcreateaccurateoddsfromthewordgo,patience
isneededtoimprovethisovertime.

Ihopeyouhaveenjoyedreadingmyguidetocreatingyourownodds.Please
feelfreetoshareitwithanyoneyouthinkmightfindituseful.

AlltheBest,
MichaelCarr

20