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A brief rev iew of kriging and its

application to optimal interpolati
and observation well selection
a a
T. S. VIRDEE & N. T. KOTTEGODA
a
Department of Civil Engineering, University of Birmingham, PO
Box 363, Birmingham, B15 2TT, UK

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To cite this article T.: S. VIRDEE & N. T. KOTTEGODA (1984): A brief review of kriging and its
application to optimal interpolation and observation well selection, Hydrological Sciences
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368 T.S, Virdee & N.T. Kottegoda

i
d stribution obtenue a p ra l mo ht ed inverse a d ( ns a l quele l
a
l i d stribution e d a l conductivit est obtenue a p rtire d
al i d stribution e d a l charge hydraulique). Sura l basee d
'
l api lp cation on estimeque a l simulai t on condii t onnele l
a
d( nsa l quele l e l so d nnes gnr e ssontconsistantes a l
fois avec e l so d nnese d et rrain et a l structure
stai t stique u d terrain)est a l meilleure. On ar t ouv
g
alement que i d ffrentes mo ht e d sd'interpoa l i t on
conduisent e d si d stributions a l rgement i d ffrentes a d ns
e l case d al conductivit hydraulique. On r p opose quea l
carte obtenue a p rkrigeage ou carte condii t onnele l e d a
l
rt ansmissivit e d vaits servir e d base o p ur a l discrtisa-
i t on rgionale a l quele l e d s corrections o p urraient r t e
apportesa p re l mode l inverse.

INTRODUCTION
uD ring e ht a p st 15years,e ht e t rm kriging,e d vised by Matheron
1
( 971)o t e d scribe ae t chnique of best i l near unbiased estimation
B
( U L E)of aregionalized variable R ( eV)and used by gol- d mining
engineers inSouth Africa,a h s become virtually synonymous withe t
wider branch of geological stai t stics s ( eeMatheron,1963). u D ring
iht s time a relai t vely a l rgenumber of papers a h s been u p blished on
e ht e t chnique o t( gete h r with some of itsvariant s ), and ithas been
fairly successfully api lp ed o t quite afewproblems ineconomic
mine e d velom p ent and exo lp itai t on. Numerous texts on geostai t stics
e d aling exclusively withkriging have appeared,ofwhiche h t books
byDavid (1977)and Journel &u H ijbregts 1 ( 978)arewidey l referenced.
e
hT primary api lp cation ofkriging a ( slighy lt inapr p opriate e t rm in
our view - some e t rm i l keMate h roning might be more suitable)has
been inmineral resource investigations andnot , surprisingly, it
has e d veloe p d a fairly specific e t rminology. Themain interest in
kriging and itsmodified versionshasbeen dueo t agap in geo-
statistics. It isessentialy l an interpoa l it on e t chnique based
upon i l near e l ast squares estimation exe t nded o t ReV r ( egionalized
variable). AReV isae d e t rministic function which generaly l varies
at such a ratea ht t it isbest considered in e t rms of its
probabilistic interpretai t on. Geological variables w ( ih ch alo
ht ugh
ine ht non-Bayesian sense maybe considered asdeterministic) are
generaly l of acompe l ix y t and inaccessibiliy t sucha ht t a
r p obabilistic interpretai t on is anecessity rate h ra ht n amere
convenience. Geostai t stics hasarisen r p imarily o t meet i ht s
requirement. Kriging o d esnot ,inour view,represent a significant
advance in e ht oretical statistics,alo ht ugh ine ht contetx of its
development, it o d es represent anadvance in e ht api lp cation of
stai t stics o t ther p oblem of economic mining ingeneraland , in
mineral exo lp itai t on specificaly l . e hT success ofkriging is
r p imarily based upon a t king into account e ht structural aspects,
such as correlai t ons,of geological formations.
e
hT economic aspect haso t bekept inmind because water is
vasty
l cheaper, alo ht ugh not necessarily e l ss valuablea ht, n gol.
d
Thismeans a ht t e
ht sampi l ng e
d nsity n ( umber of sampe l se
p r unit
area or volume)is significanty l smale
l r for water resource
investigation,u ht smaking e ht e
d ud ction of eht correlai t on
 Kriging and its application 369

structure ofe h t subsurface environment o p e t ntialy l more difficult.

However,aquifer materials generaly l e t nd o t be more o h mogeneous
a ht n mineral-bearing strata soa ht t achange ine ht scalemight be
e ht only change necessary. i hT s also impi l esa ht t e h t compua t i t onal
costs and r p oblems will be smaller,u ht s fiti t ng inwith e t economic
aspect.
In subsurface hydrology,we are interested ine d scribing e ht
aquiferconductivity or r t ansmissivity field and e ht y h r d aulic head,
and, ifwe are e d aling with i t me-dee p ndent problems,e ht storativity
field should alsobe inclue d . d It isaccepe t da ht t co-regionalization
i( nterdee p ndence)between e ht se variables o d es existbut , its
api lp cation o t subsurface y h r d ology r p oblems isa l rgely unexo lp red.
Itoffers a p rticularly useful api lp cations ine ht field of ground-
water contamination studies. Oncewe a h ve e d e t rmined r t ansmissivity
and storativity we can e d al with e t r p oblem of e t mporal or spai t al
forecasting of e ht behaviour of e h ad at some ote h ri t me or o l cation
respectively, o t gete h r with e t uncertainties e h t ( concept of
uncertainty is importanta p, rticularly in forecasting mod e l s ). At
present,most of e ht commonly used groundwater modes l e d al with
groundwater variables asbeing deterministic.
Inourview,e h t main credit for e ht e d velom p ent ofkriging in
relai t on o t groundwater a p rameter variabiliy t goesr p imarily o t
e
D o hl mme (1978, 1979), and colleagues e ( .g.e D f l iner &Delhomme,
1973). Delhomme 1 ( 978)api lp ed kriging o t oh rizontal flow,and
suggested e D( o hl mme, 1979)e ht use of condii t onal simulai t on C ( S)
i
ht( s involves making r p edicted values consistent with field
measured values)of r t ansmissivity ine ht Bato h nian aquifer in o l wer
Normandy, France,for e ht u p rpose of improving e ht r p edictive
capabiliy t ofe ht groundwater models. Alo ht ugh e h conclue d da ht t
thisbrought about only aminor improvemente h , realized a ht t i ht s
inu t rn couldbe u d eo t e ht a l ck of sufficient data. i hT s concept
was investigated by Binsariti 1 ( 98) 0 who showed a ht t while
condii t onal simulai t on i d d not significanty l reducee h t variances
ine h ad r p ediction for e ht Cortaro aquifer in soute h rn Arizona,
condii t onal simulai t on coupe l d with inverse modei l ng i ( nwhich e ht
y
h r d aulic conductivity values are not only condii t oned by y h rd aulic
eh ad measurementsbut , also by e ht flow regime)reduces itby a
factor of . 4 It should benoted a ht t e h api lp cation ofkriging o t
e h ad interpoa l i t on resuls t insmale l r errorsby virtue of e ht
facta ht t e h y h r d aulic e h ad is e l ss variable a ht n r t ansmissivity
a ( scanbe seen from e ht i d fferential equation governing groundwater
flow - seeBakr et al. ( 1 978 ) , for ex a mp l e ), soa ht t kriging can
readiy l be api lp ed for such purposes. Orr &u D o t n1 ( 983)i d scuss
some r p oblems associated with e t api lp cation ofkriging o t
ed e t rmine regional groundwater flow and e h ad interpoa l i t on in the
San Andreas formation. e hT y conclude a ht t ay h brid apr p oach should
be made. Smith & Schwartz (1981)suggested a ht t e ht a p e t rn of
spai t al variation should be a t ken into account as itwas an important
source of uncertainty inestimating e h t mean and standard e d viation
of e ht yh r d aulic conductivity distribution,u ht s impy l ing e ht need
for condii t onal results. Clifton &Neuman (1982), folo l wing e ht
research of Binsariti ( 1 98 0 ) , stui d ed e ht Avra vale l y aquifer,and
conclue d da ht t modes l a ht t o d not a t ke into account e ht actual
stai t stical structure of e ht a d a t should beused with caution -e ht
 370 T.S. Virdee & N.T. Kottegoda

e
h ad variance could be overestimated by factorsofup o t 46. Kriging
has alsobeen i d scussed from e ht e d e t rministic viewpoint by
Gambolai t &Voli p (1979a). e hT aspect of removing r t ends can be
subjective and generaly l e l adso t biased results. Insome cases
where e ht e d u d ction of simpe l r t ends isnot o p ssible one can use
universal kriging ( U K),r t ansitive kriging K T( ) A ( f l aro &Miguez,
1976)ande ht established techniques. Conceps t such asnonlinear
kriging M ( ate h ron,1971)existbut , e ht y generaly l require more
a
d a t and are stil not yet firmly establishe. d e hT se are r p obably
not i l kely o t beused economicaly l inconnection with groundwater
ap rameter interpoa l i
t on. Intermediate techniques, such as
i d sjunctive kriging K D( ) M ( ate h ron, 1975)ape p ar o t a h ve e ht same
fate ate ht present.
e
hT ideaofopi t mal a d at reconnaissance isnot new,but in
relai t on o t stochastic variabiliy t itis anovel concept.
Condii t onal simulai t ons r p ovide anew way of o l oking ate ht matter.
Ine ht ir widey l quoted articlee D, f l iner &e D o hl mme 1 ( 973)e d e t rmine
theopi t mum o p sitions fore ht o l cation of adi d i t onal raingauges.
Alo ht ugh it is realized thaat t, presentgeop , y
h sical a d at are
collected only ife h t y are o t be of immediate o l cal benefit e ( .g.
when anew supy lp is required),e ht time isr p obably not far off,in
e
ht i l ght of e ht r p esent e d sire for greater efficiency and
integrative capacitywh , en a d a t will be cole l cted so aso t a h ve e ht
best overall benefitfor , instancewhen e ht effects one ht
environment,o l cal wellsand , o l ng-term yiels d are also considered
o t beconstraints.
The a d at requirements fore ht api lp cation ofkriging o t
estimation and network e d signa h ve briefly been stui d ed by Hughes
&e L e t nmaier (1981),who conclue d a ht t e ht re isno clear
r p eferencebetween kriging and e ht classical e l ast squares meto h d
when e ht sampe l size ise l ss a ht n 50al, o ht ugh kriging may be
r
p eferable ine h t sensea ht t it smoots h out e ht spai t al variability.
Thenumber of a d a t op ints inquestion mustof , course,e d e p nd on
e
ht spai t al variabiliy t .

REVIEWOFSOMEASPECTSOFKRIGING
Kriging isan interpoa l it on technique. Given a set of a d a
t o p ints
o l cated at random inspace,interpoa l i
t on could becarried out with
conventional methods such asopi t mal inverse distance weighi t ng
(see, for instance,Kane et al., 198 2 ), r t end surface analysis s ( ee
Agterberg, 1974 ) , butkriging offers ai d stinct advantage incertain
cases,a p rticularly where e ht ad at ah ve ih gh natural variability.
The essenceofkriging i l es in finding e ht weights X i ( r ) such aht t
e
ht estimator fore ht interpoa l e t d valueZhas someopi t mal relation-
shipwith agiven setof Na d at values Z(ri),i = 1,N:

Z( r )=E N
A 1 ( r )Z( r i ) 1
( )
x
i=l
Inequation ( 1 ),r ise ht o
p sition vector,Z( r )ise ht interpoa l e
t d
value of anyy h r
d ogeological variable s ( uch ase h ad ortransmissivity),
Z( r ). e
hT choicethat:
 Kriging and its application 371

<Z(r) - Z ( r ) > = 0 (2)

and a
ht t e
ht residual variance:

a2 = [
< Z(r)- Z(r)]2> 3
( )

isaminimum impose e ht condii t on a ht t e

h estimator,Z, isboth
unbiased s ( ot h aont , average,e ht estimated and actual values are
eht same), and gives e l ast i d spersion s ( oaht t i
h gh estimated
values generaly l correspond witi h gh observed values,and vice
versa). As a stochastic interpoa l o t r,kriging i d ffers from
conventional interpoa l i t on e t chniques ina ht t itnecessitatese ht
need for structural analysis. e hT ideaof structural analysis is
ate ht e h art ofkriging because it isr ht ough thisa ht t e
h opi
t mal
interpoa l it on strategy is incorporated intoe h t interpoa l i t on. The
variogram,which is arepresentai t on of e ht structural information,
indicates e ht e d gree of correlai t onbetween values of thevariable
asa function of distance. e hT concept ofe ht variogram iscentral
o t kriging because it ise ht analysis of i ht swhich not only
ed e t rmines e ht value of equation 3 ( )u ht( s introducing e ht concept
of structure-dee p ndent estimation variance),but also offers e ht
o
p ssibiliy t of generating anuncondii t oned field a ( field ah t t has
eht same stai t stical structure ase h t databut , with a i d fferent
spai t al distribution).
e
hT e d e t rmination of e h t actual covariance structure of an
aquifer iscomplicated,not because ofmate h matical or analyi t cal
difficulties,but because of a l ck of sufficient data. Before
considering e ht se i d fficuli t es e l t use d fine various terms.
ehT y
h rd ological variable z(r)isassumed o t be arealization of
a stochastic function Z( r ). e hT r ht ee second-order moments a ht t
are relevant o t kriging aree ht variance (var), thecovariance C ( ),
and eht variogram F ( )e d fined respectively by:

var{Z(r)} = <[Z(r)- Z ( )>]2>

< r )
4(

C( Z ( r 1 ), Z ( r 2 )) =< [ Z( r 2 ) - <Z(rx)>][Z(r2) - <Z(r2)>]> 5

( )

and

r( r i , r 2 ) =var{Z( r 1 )-Z( r 2 )} (6)

e
hT semivariogram, Y(**i,r2), ise
d finedas:

Y( r 1 , r 2 )= r( r 1; r 2 )/2 7
( )

Generaly l ,the covariance ande h t variogram e d e

p nd on both o p sitions
r-^and r 2 , but in such acase many realizations of e ht ap ir
[Z(rj),Z(r2)]are required fore ht m o
t be evaluated. In reality,
only one measurement isavailable inany supo p rt volume a ( supo
p rt
volume consists of asmall region inwhich a single measurement can
bemadeand , is u ht s analogous o t arepresentai t ve elementary volume
s
( eeBear,1972)where Darcy's a l w is applicable). o T get around
i
ht s fundamental problem,e h t hypothesis of stai t onarity a h so t be
invoked. i hT s involvesmaking e ht assumpi t on a ht t Cand ye d ep nd
372 T.S. Virdee & N.T. Kottegoda

only one ht separation vector r | j-r2|. i hT s allows e ht

consideration of alla d a
t op ints separated by e ht same distance,,h
asbeing realizations ofe h t samea p ir of e ht random variables
[Z(r1)- Z( r 2 )]. Intuitively, itisclear from consideration of
geo-evolui t onary r p ocesses a ht t i
ht sassumpi t on isquite justified,
a
p rticularly asa first apr p oximation. A succession of stai t onarity
hypotheses has been introduced o t alol w one o t ed al with e
t
available a d at inaway soaso t makee h t maximum useof e ht
available information s ( ee Journel & u H ijbregts ( 1 978 ) , chae tp r2 ) .
One a p rticularly useful y h o p eht sis isa h t t of intrinsic stai t onarity
where one works not with Z(r)but only with increments of e ht y
t e
p
LZ(r1)- Z( r 2 )]. i hT s hase h t advantages a ht t not only isit
unnecessary o t assume a ht t e
ht variance of Z( r )isfinitebut , also
it file
t rsout theconstant background level.
Anote h rr p ofound r p oblem ine ht evaluation of e ht variogram is
aht t of reducing e ht estimation variance, i.e.,e h t error in
estimation of interpoa l e t d values. Sometimes e ht re is aclear r t end
in a d a t s ( uch as e ht r p esence of consistenty l high values of
rt ansmissivity invale l y areas -asituation observed ine ht Kennet
Vale l y Chak l aquifer)ande ht r t end canbe removed quite easily,
but generaly l i ht s isnot e h t case. AsDelhomme 1 ( 979)not e s,e ht
bias introduced by assuming agiven r t end isoften reasonably small,
a
p rticularly in situations with readiy l inferable trends. It should
benoted a h t t ar t end o p y l nomial fit on e ht basis of e ht conventional
el ast squares r p incipe l results inuncorrelae t d residualsu ht , s
el ading o t anon-existent variogram.
e
hT procedure for calculai t on of e ht variogram from exe p rimental
a d a t i ( nclui d ng computer r p ograms inFORTRAN IV)is givenby both
a
D vid (1977)and Journel & Huijbregts ( 1 978 ) , and e ht reader is
referred o t e ht se for details. Ingroundwater problems e ht re are
various scales of correlai t on and, in theory,e ht procedure can be
api lp ed at any scale r p ovided a ht t weuse e ht correct variogram. It
should benoted a ht t e ht natural o l garitm h of e ht r t ansmissivity
n
l( ) T( )or of e ht y h r d aulic conductivity n l( K ( ))isgeneraly l used
for structural analysis rate h ra ht n T orK because of e ht empirical
evidence a ht t e ht y areboth o l gnormaly l i d stributed (Freeze, 1975).
Furthermore,e ht r t ansformed variables are better structured ine ht
sense of valii d y t ofe ht second-order stai t onarity approximation.
Once e ht exe p rimental variogram hasbeen obtained, we a h ve o t fit a
e
ht oretical one o t it. e hT interpretai t on of e ht variogram requires
theconceps t of sill, range of influence,and e h t nugget effect
s ( eeDavid, 1977), all of which a h ve (realistic)y hp sical inter-
r
p etai t on and impi l cation. e hT basic structure of a semivariogram
is shown inFig.l. a H ving found C( h )e ht , "kriging system":

Z N Xi(r)C(ri -r.)+ u= C(r. -r ) , j= 1,N )

8(
i=l x 1
J i
Z N X.(r) = 1 9
( )
i=l i
where uisaa L grange multiplier involved ine ht minimization
exr
p essed by equation ( 3 ),can be solved fore ht position e
d e
p ndent
weighst A.( r ). Inmatrix notai t on (8)and (9)may bewrittenas:

A
) r(R =
r( ) (10)
 Kriging and its application 373

Separation distance Ch)

Fig. 1 Typical semivariogram structure. NUGGET EFFECT represents local

variability. This is due to experimental errors and depends on the support volume (see
text). Also shown are the RANGE and SI LL. Dashed and solid lines represent the
fitted and experimental semivariograms respectively.

where e ht matrix and vectors areconsistent with ) 8 ( and ( 9 ). We

note a
ht t e
ht matrix C ah sot be inverted just once s ( ince it
o
d es not e d e
p nd upon r )wh, ich isquite advantageous,because
krigingwould ote h rwise becompua t i
t onaly
l quite expensive.

CONCEPST BEHINDCONDIIT ONAL SIMULAIT ONS

As already notekriging d, provides,by smooti h ng e ht spai t al
variability,e ht best i l near unbiased estimator B ( U L E)from e h t data.
Thiscan be seen from e h t fact a ht t e
ht e ht oretical variogram fite t d
ot e ht exe
p rimental variogram isi d fferent frome ht exe p rimental
variogram ina ht t it is idealized. a hT t is,eht e ht oretical variogram
is smoote h r. Indeedy , must be o p sitive definitewh , ich isnot
usually r t ue for e ht unsmoote h d exe p rimental semivariogram. o T
incorporate arealistic variabiliy t into amodel e ht r p actical
rp ocedure iso t use random numbers. e hT requirement iso t generate
eht m in such away a ht t e
ht ir variogram resembles e ht exe p rimental
variogram. Nearest-neighbour models of first and i h gher orders
s
( ee Smith &Freeze,1979;or Cliff &Ord, 198 1 ), alo ht ugh
concepu t aly l quite realistic o d notgeneral, ly, faitf h uly l reproduce
e ht field statistics,and also e t nd o
t be compua t it onaly l relai t vely
expensive. e hT u t rning bandsmethod, e d vised byMatheron 1 ( 973)
and associates atFontainebleau, is superior inboth senses,and
i
ht s a h s been shownby Mantoglou &Wilson (1982).
Ine ht ut rning bandsmethod,an isotropic process in n-dimensional
real space (R )is formed from ahomogeneous r p ocessW with

follows. Firstlywe , e
l t Z( r )=W( x )and generate W atm equaly l
spaced o p ints one ht one-dimensional straight i l ne x , 0 ( )wh, ere
x max
o^ ed e
p nds one ht id stance between successive points. e hT m
max
equaly l spaced o p ints give rise o t mbands. Secondlye h,t whoe l of
each realization's straight i l ne is given an indee p ndent uniformly
i
d stributed rotai t on about theorigin inR n u h t ( seh t name u T rning
BandsMeto h d (TBM)). ActuallyMant , oglou &Wilson 1 ( 981)found
374 T.S. Virdee & N.T. Kottegoda

a
ht t it iscompua
t i
t onaly l bete
t r for e
ht se i
l nes o t be spaced at
equal angles from eachother. Finaly l for
, any op int ine ht region
Ps( ee Fig.2),e h t value of Z( r )isgivenby:
1 M
Z( r )=- E M W(u.r) 1
( 1)
1
/M i=1
where M ise ht number of i l nes used. Ase ht number of i l nes is
increased,e ht covariance C( r )isreproduced more accuratelybut ,
M =8or 16 isusualy l sufficient. u hT s ifwe can generate e ht one
id mensional r p ocess W ( )with covariance C-,e ht , n e
ht r
p ocess with
covariance Ccan also be obtained. a D gbert ( 1 98 1 ), Mantoglou &
Wilson ( 1 98 1 ), andMantoglou &Wilson 1 ( 982)give agood account
ofe ht BT M. e hT TBM,however,can only readiy l beused fore ht
generation ofwide-sense stai t onary fields. Yet e h t fact aht t
e
ht re are usualy l insufficient dataand , a ht t e ht re isuncertainty
u
d ( eo t assumpi t onsmade when analysing a d a t observation wells)
even ine ht se datae l, aves e h t stai t onarity y h o p e ht sis ase ht only
workable alternative. On e ht ote
h r hand, e D fl iner 1 ( 975)gives
some api lp cations ofkriging o t nonstationary e hp nomena.
Once e ht uncondii t onal field a h sbeen generated, it ismade
consistent with field data. Ithasbeen shown by Journel 1 ( 974)
aht t eht condii t onal simulai t on:

Z s ( r ) =Z( r )+ [S(r)- S(r)] 1

( 2)

where S(r)ise h t value ofe ht generated uncondiit oned field and

S(r)ise h t kriging estimator of S( r )generated from o p ints o
l cated
ate
ht original a d a t pointsgives
, e
ht same covariance asZ( r ).
It reproducese h t exe
p rimental values,and when averaged over a
sufficient number of realizations reproduces e ht r
p operties e d ud ced
from Z( r i ). We also notethat:

6(r)= tZs(r)-Z(r)]= [S(r)- S(r)] 1

( 3)

soa
ht t e
h t estimation error:

( )= E N
a /r Ar
( )y(r. -r)+ u 1
( )
4
o i=l i i
gives ameasure of e ht error involved ine h t estimation ofZ( r ).
This e l adsot e
ht concept of opi t mal ol cation of adi
d i t onal wells,
i.e. e ht wells should be a lp ced at ol cations where a(r)isa l rgest.
Figure 2 showse h t general schematic i d agram fore ht generation of
bothe t condii t onal map and e ht errormap from e ht original field
data.

SOME RP OBLEMSASSOCIATED WITH KRIGINGAPILP CATIONSTOSUBSURFACE

YH RD OLOGY
e
hT major r p oblem ineht api
lp cation of kriging o t subsurface
y
h r
d ology isa l ck of sufficient a d a
t for structural analysis.
Further,each aquifer a h s particular characteristics andproblems,
and requires specific interpretai t on and analysis. ehT fact a
ht t
one generaly l uses adepth-averaged equation for regional ground-
 Kriging and its application 375

c
^ e
c
w CO n
CO %
t. r-

^
L.

""* JL w
v,
05 v
O -I
V
H<""%

ir
r-i

S_

CO
s_ i

M s_
<p ;

s~*
s_ +
NI

^
tf

.s
F

s_ t!

N
i_

4> r^ i

H hsl
X i.

i.

rvj
NJ b H<

-o-
 376 T.S. Virdee & N.T. Kottegoda

water flow problems does,o t acertain extentred , uce e ht ap rameter

variability. However,when e ht exe p rimental variogram a h sbeen
obtained, it is rate h r surprising a ht teven when quite i d fferent
e
ht oretical variograms are fittee htd, effect on a p rameter inter-
polation is surprisingly small. i hT s o p int has also beenmade by
Kitanidis & Vomvoris (1983). Cautionhas u ht s o t beexercised in
e ht y hp sical interpretai t on ofe ht e ht oretical variogram. The
e d u d ced a p rameters such as range of influence are often not
realistic. Anote h rr p oblem isa ht t ofe ht assessment of r t ends so
aso t reduce e ht variance ofparameters. When we assume a specific
trendwe , areunsure aso t whee ht r a specific o l cal variabiliy t ah s
beenmistaken for atrendand , vice versa. y hP sical interpretai t on
of e ht semivariogram of e ht residual component a h so t bemade with
caution. Often acrude r t end component isquite acceptablewh , iel
inote h r cases,even anexa h ustive search leadso t unrealistic
results. It is generaly l founda ht t ar t end component fore ht
e h ad a h so t beat ken into account. Formodeling transmissivity,on
theote h r hand, it isusualy l not justified by e ht e
d gree of
variability.

APILP CATIONOFKRIGINGTOOPTIMAL INTERPOAL IT ON

e
hT requirement foropi t mal interpoa l it on of they h rd aulic e h ad is,
as already mentioned above,a p rticularly critical ine h t case when
it iso t be used ine h t inversemeto h d fordeduction of y h r d aulic
conductivity. This isbecause of e ht relai t ve insensitivity of
yh r d aulic e h ad o t y h rd aulic conductivity. Kriging canbe used as
e ht best i l near unbiased estimator and representson , account of
e ht a l ck of specific y h r d ogeological detailsthe , best i ( ne ht
sense e d fined above)meto h d of interpoa l i t ng hydrological variables.
Assumpi t ons such as second-order stai t onarity a h ve o t bemade u d e
o t sparseness of databut , i ht s isgeneraly l a fair apr p oximation
indeduction of e ht semivariogram of e ht hydraulic e h ad and ofe ht
o
l garitm h of y h r d aulic conductivity.
o
T ilu l strate e ht above pointskriging , was api lp ed o t e ht Chak l
aquifer of e ht Upe p ra hT mes basin o l( cation map is shown in Fig.3 ) ,
ande h t resultsobtained were compared with o t se obtained by
Birtles &Morel (1979)by a h nd-contouring ine ht case of y h r d aulic
head, and bye ht inverse meto h d for transmissivity. e hT hydro-
geological and geopy h sical character of e ht Upe p ra hT mes basin is
well o d cumented R ( obinson,1977,1978 ) . Alo ht ugh it is accepe t d
a ht t e ht o l cal hydrogeologist's insight should be sought, itis
accepe t do t oa ht t iht s can e l ad ot an irreducible e l vel of
subjective bias. The value ofi ht s o l cal view can only be judged
in arelai t vely o l ng-term aquifer y d namic consideration. As
o p inted out by Birte l s &Morel (1979),one r p oblem with conventional
el ast-squares gridding isa ht t itcan produce spurious o l cal sources
and sinks. This r p oblem alsooccurs with other methods of inter-
polation,alo ht ugh kriging o d es appear o t reduce i ht sby a t king e ht
space-dee p ndent structural aspects of e ht variable into account. It
should alsobe borne inmind a ht t nonsteady-state r p oblems should
be examined closely and be integrated over a sufficienty l o l ng and
representai t ve i t me e p riod before being considered as steady-
 Kriging and its application 377

2.50-

2.00
10 km
R. T 'J
1 .5 0 LAHBOURN

1 .00+

.50T

R. Kennet
.80-
.0
X AXIS 1 0
Y AXIS 10
Fig. 3 Physical map of the area of study (Upper Thames basin).

staet ones.
Figure 4 showse ht o
l cation and values of measured groundwater
levels,and Fig.5 shows e ht contour map obtained by interpoa l i
t on
on a20x 10grid e
( quivalent o t a6.25-km mesh)using e ht
surrounding r t iangle meto h ds
( a
t ndard grapi
h cal a
p ckage p r oced u re).
To apy
lp kriging we need o t obtaine ht semivariogram. If ar t end
component ischosen and subtracted from e ht measured values e ht n of
course e ht variance isreduced. The r t end component s ( ee Fig.6)is
chosen so aso t beboth realistic and convenient. The form chosen
isgiven bye ht equation:

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 I

+183
+8
2.0 0 - +112 , 76
+145
+ 154 +14B
141 1
, 35
+138 +133 +91
1.50 ,148 +181 +61
+124 +116
2
+ " ,138 +
1 6
+n" 5 +
" 8
+, B 8 +S9
+156 ,133 +1 3 3 +8 4
+161 +1'5 ,184
+137 +124 +1B9+1I2
1
, 29 " 1
9
, 1 +6!
1.0H0
, 1 68 +111 +1B4
+12-1 +1B8 ,99
+115 ,98 +95 +9
,154 13 1
+ ' 132
,
+119
.50- +117
, 1 31 +97 9
, 1 "SI*"
+78
+8 3

Pid
1 1 1 1 1 I I 1
1 .i 3.0 4A 5.0

X AXIS * 1 0
Y AXIS * 1 0
Fig. 4 Location and values of hydraulic head measurements in MOD.
378 T.S. Virdee & N.T. Kottegoda

2.5

2.

1.58;

1 .00

.50

5.0
X A X I S 10
T AXIS * 1 0
Fig. 5 Interpolation of head using standard graphical package.

2.50-

3.8 4.0 5.8

X A X IS 1 0
Y AXIS 10

Fig. 6 Trend component f o r head.

1 4 5
(15)
<ijj(r)> = - 13|r|cos(9 + ir/2)

where 6=t a n _ 1 ( y /x ) , y ,x( )are Cartesian coordinates,r= /(x + y) ,

and ipise ht yh r d aulic e h ad. e hT semivariogram shown in Fig.7
corresponds o t aht t obtained by removing e ht rt end component. e hT
semivariogram fore ht actual values is shown in Fig.8. e hT aim was
o
t compare e ht merits of removing e ht r
t end component.
e
hT e
ht oretical semivariograms fite t dot Figs 7 and 8 correspond
respectively o t :
-h/4 (16)
Y(h)=5 4 1 ( e )

and
i30m"
h forh 27
< km (17)
Y( h )= 3780m for 50 >h >27km
!170-h
 Kriging and its application 379
X1 0 1
>8r-

Symbol i
D stanceClass
v 1=at .8
+ i=2a.8
1=13.8
< 1= 5.0
* 6

28 30 t0
S e p a r a t i o n d i s t a n c e Ch> in kilometres

Fig. 7 Semivariogram of residual hydraulic head. Solid line represents the fitted
semivariogram.

X183
5_,

Symbol i
D stanceClass
-t=i 8. a
1=20.8
1=18.0
1= 5.8

28 38 8t 58
Separationid stance>
h < inkilometres

Fig. 8 Semivariogram of the actual hydraulic head. Solid line represents the fitted
semivariogram.

e
hT calculai t on of e ht spectral e d nsity function used ine ht
u
t rning bandsmeto h d fore h t generation of arandom field a ( s
exa
lp ined ine ht next section)u t rns out ot be a p rticularly
convenient forequation 1 ( 6)and isused ineht conditional
simulai t on of e ht y
h r d aulic e h ad. Figur e 9 shows e ht contour map
obtained by interpoa l it ng e h t residualc omponent of e ht e
h ad and
e
ht n adi d ng ther t end component. Figure 10shows eht contour map
obtained by interpoa l it on using e ht stat istical structure shown in
Fig.8. e hT se w t o figures o t gete
h r with Fig.5 are o t be compared
with e t result givenby Birte l s &Morel 1
( 979) (Fig.5,p . 8 3 7).
2.50 X AXIS *1 0
Y AXIS *1 0

.0 1 .0 2.8 3.0 4.C 5-

Fig. 9 Kriged map of head using semivariogram shown in Fig. 7.

2.5 0 - X AXIS *1 0
Y AXIS *1 0

2.00

1 .50

1 .00-

1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0

Fig. 0
1 Kriged map of head using semivariogram shown in Fig. 8.

2.50-

2.00-
+'8 +960
210
+9
6 5 +0
6 8 +27B0
+21 00 + 208 + 70 +150
2sae R ,+21 B
1 .58- +
+ 270+^ + 1 2 00
+ 252 + 8"'
+ 81 +2BW
+ 915 + 2580 +2208 +500 ,_-B
+ S59 +7
1 08
+ 715
1 .00- + , 7 8 +1508 *,S0B
^1 5 8 0
+2
5 88 + 2880

.50-
+ 223

+ 290
.00-
.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0

X AXIS * 1 0
Y AXIS * 1 0
Fig. 1 Location and values of transmissivity measurements (m 2 day ' !.
 Kriging and its application 381

On e ht whole we seea ht te
h r
t ends ine h ad values are similar,
e
d spie t eht fact a ht t eht values ofe h ad obtained bye ht i
d fferent
methods vary by asmuch as 10m insome places. Gambolai t & Volip
1
( 979b)a h ve satisfactorily api lp ed similar e t chniques o t contour
mapi p ng of groundwater inVenice.
Inorder o t e d e
t rmine e ht flow regime,asimilar r p ocedure is
apilp ed o t e ht r
t ansmissivity a d at given inFig.11 s ( ee alsoMorel ,
198 0 ) . e H nce we obtain e ht standard grapi h cal ap ckage contour map
shown in Fig.12 ande ht semivariogram fore ht natural o l garitmh of
r
t ansmissivity shown by Fig.13which canbe apr p oximated by

Y( h )= 2.5(1 - e h / 5 ) (18)

a
H ving obtained i
ht swe gete
ht kriged contour map shown in Fig.14.
Comparing Figs 14and 12witha t t obtained by Birte
l s &Morel

2.50-

2.00

1.50

3.0 4.0 5.
AX
X IS*1( CONTOURE
H IGH1
T 0
YAXIS *H
Fig. 12 Standard graphical package interpolation of transmissivity.

Symbol Distance Class

A 1= -0.000
1 I - 20.002
* l> 10.000
X I" S.000

~ 3

2 0 3 0 ' 0
Separation distance <h> in kilometres
Fig. 13 Semivariogram of log (transmissivity). Solid line represents the fitted
semivariogram.
382 T.S. Virdee & N.T. Kottegoda

.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 .

4 0 5.0
AX
X IS*10 CONTOUREH IGH*10
T
YAXIS*!0
Fig. 4
1 Kriged map of transmissivity using semivariogram shown in Fig. 13.

1
( 979)by e ht inversemeto h d (Fig.6,p.837)we seea ht t e
ht
differences are quite unacceptable. This is an important conclusion
resuli t ng frome h t apilp cation of e ht i
d fferent methods. While our
map isbased on field values,e h t map shownby Birte l s &Morel
(1979)isbased on indirect analysis. Ita h so t be accepe t da
ht t
normalized models canmask serious flaws. e hT y ape p ar o t give
consistent resuls t overe h t short term,but for e p riods significanty l
greater a ht n eht normalization i t meconstantse ht , ir arbitrary
nature becomes apa p rent. i hT s pointof , course,a h s arate h r wider
setit ng because almost allmodes l of y hp sical r
p ocesses e d ep nd on
normalization.

0 1-0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0

X AXIS *1 0
Y AXIS 1 0
Fig. 15 Typical conditional map of hydraulic head. Note that it agrees with field values.
 Kriging and its application 383

APILP CATIONOFKRIGINGTOOL CATIONOFADDITIONAL OBSERVATION

BOREHOLES
As shown above s ( ee equation ( 1 2)),e ht evaluation of e
ht opit mal
location of adi d i
t onal wells requires e ht generation of e ht
unconditional field,S( r ). Acompue t rr p ogram hasbeen write t n for
i
ht s u
p rpose V
( irdee198
, 4)andutii l zes e
ht BT M mentioned above.
Figures 15 and 17show y t i
p cal condii t onal simulai t ons of e ht

X AXIS *1
Y AXIS *1 0
Fig. 61 Map of distribution of uncertainty (in %) in head estimation.

2.50-

2.0-0

1.50-

3.0 .
4
AXX IS*1 CONTOURE
H IGH*10
T
YAXIS*1
Fig. 7
1 Typical conditional map of transmissivity. Note that it agrees with field values.
384 T.S. Virdee & N.T. Kottegoda

y h r d aulic e h ad and r t ansmissivity fiels d respectively, using

equation (12)o t gete h r withe t above-mentioned kriging programs.
e
hT error maps obtained fore ht w
t o variables are shown inFigs16
and 18 . The usefulness ofe h t maps isclear enough. Firstlye h t, y
give arealistic indication ofe h t variabiliy t involved, in
contrast o t kriged maps which smooth it out. Secondlye h,t
r
p eceding error maps showuswhere e h t interpoa l et d values e d viate
frome ht exep cted stai t stical structure u ht s indicating e ht best
position o t a
lp ce adi d i
t onal wells. e hT se a h ve e
ht effect of
eite h r confirming e ht already assumed semivariogram, ormodifying it
ot e h t greatest extent. Ine ht final analysis,e ht o
l cation of
wells ise d e t rmined by various ote h r constraints s ( uch asenviron-
mental,politicalor , economic issues). However,e ht exe
p rienced
y
h r d ogeologist should consider e h t various compromises and u ht s
establish an opi t mal overall o p il cy.

Fig. 81 Map of distribution of uncertainty (in %) in estimation of log (transmissivity).

I
D SCUSSIONANDCONCLUSIONS

(a)e hT main stage ine ht construction of both forecasting and

confirmatory models ise ht identification of e ht areal distribution
of e ht rt ansmissivity and storativity. On account of e ht a
l ck of
sufficient datasome , sort of interpoa l i
t on haso t be carried out.
Itcan be seen a ht t the values obtained by interpoa l i t on and e
ht
inverse meto h d as api lp ed o
t e h t Upep r Thames basin by Birtles &
Morel 1 ( 979)are incompatible. i hT s inconsistency may be
atr
t ibuted o t e
ht somewhat arbitrary nature of e h t initial
estimation of a p rameters chosen for e ht inverse model. Further,
i
ht s arbitrariness may also be a p rt of e ht e
t mporal integration of
 Kriging and its application 385

e
ht non-steady stae t groundwater flow equation. All e ht se aspects
need furte h r stuy d with e t aim of removing arbitrariness at e ht
variousstages.
b
( )Ine ht interpoa l i t on ofe ht head, it isfound a ht t e ht
various methods give similar resultsal , o ht ugh e ht final e d cision
isbest e l ft o t eht o l calhydrogeologist. The condii t onal map
(Fig.15), however,ape p ars o t be e ht one a ht t most closely resembles
e
ht actual y h r d aulic e h ad and its variabiliy t . e hT comment madeby
Birtles &Morel 1 ( 979)a ht t eh a l rgest errors inthe compue t d
heads occur ate ht exr t eme north of e ht catcm h ent o d esnot seem o t
be justified by i ht s stuy d s ( ee Fig.16). Instead it ape p ars a ht t
a measurement of e ht e h ad at about 15km east ofa L mbourn can be
quite worthwhile.
c
( )Alo ht ugh it isaccepe t da ht t for a fule l re d velom p ent of e ht
aquifer,ae d nsernetwork of a d a t isnecessary, and a ht t e
ht re is
aneed for amore accurate representai t on c ( ontrary o t common
belief)ofboundaries,ita h so t be said a ht t e ht meto h s d of
analysis need o t bemore criticaly l and rigorously api lp ed withe t
aim ofkeeping inminde ht y hp sical impi l cations.
(d)Calibration of groundwater modes l is acentral r p ocess in
model building,butas , o p inted out above,this shouldnot bee ht
only form inwhich realism is introduced into e ht models. The
arbitrary nature of i d scretization should be examined andif ,
possible,removed one ht basis ofy h r d ogeological evidence or
analysis. Thekriged mapore ht condii t onal map of e ht trans-
missivity should serve asabasis for regional i d scretization o t
which corrections viae ht inversemodel may bemade.
(e)e hT re isanopi t mal o l gging o p i l cy which e ht hydrogeologist
can r p esent o t e h t system operations analyst wh, o can e ht n formulae t
various operational objectives.

ACKNOWLEG D EMENTS i hT s research was supo p rted by agrant frome

ht
Natural Environment Research Council. r D Robinson ofThames Water
kindyl r p ovided someof e h t data. ehT comments of e ht reviewers
whoe
h epl d uso
t clarify i
ht s a p e
p r are also appreciated.

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Received lo April 1984; accepted 17 August 1984.