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24 August 2017
Target Price Change

Gautam Chhugani
India Financials +65-6230-4654
gautam.chhugani@bernstein.com
HDFC Bank Ltd
Gaurav Jangale, ACA
+65-6230-4682
Rating
gaurav.jangale@bernstein.com
Outperform
Target Price

HDFCB.IN 2,430.00 INR (1,510.00 OLD)

HDFC Bank: Acquire, Digitize, Learn, Repeat.

We are increasing HDFC Bank's target price to INR2,430, implying ~40% upside from current Close Date 22-Aug-2017
levels. HDFC Bank is executing on a formula: Acquire customers (via branch, digital), engage HDFCB.IN Close Price (INR) 1,747.00
customers across its digital platforms, sell products (rather customer self-selects in the digital Target Price (INR) 2,430.00
world); the platform learns using AI and feeds it back to the platform. The result is sustained Upside/(Downside) 39%
market share gain, quality customer base, low cost of acquisition, customized and more
52-Week Low 1,158.00
intelligent cross-sell and re-allocation of employee base to high value customers.
52-Week High 1,810.00
As part of our fintech deep-dive, we spoke to HDFCB's digital banking head, Nitin Chugh. We MXAPJ 527.67
believe HDFC bank is executing a solid digital transformation that will drive faster growth, FYE Mar
better cross-sell and sustained efficiency gains. HDFCB will improve cost efficiency by over Indicated Div Yield 0.6%
500bps in next 3 years. We are 200 bps lower than consensus on cost/income ratio in
Market Cap (INR) (B) 4,548
FY'20E. To cut through the digital noise, just track HDFCB's mobile transactions leadership
EV (INR) (M) NA
and its Apple mobile app downloads (Refer Exhibits 15 to 17)
We compared India to a multi-decade view of consumer growth cycle in mature economies. Performance YTD 1M 6M 12M
We believe the current growth cycle will be led by ex-mortgage consumer credit (cards, Absolute (%) 46.4 3.7 26.7 41.1
personal loans, auto etc.) with significant headroom to increase consumer leverage over next MXAPJ (%) 23.7 0.6 12.0 17.6
5 years. Digital/mobile led acquisition will accelerate consumer loan growth relative to the
Relative (%) 22.8 3.2 14.7 23.6
previous decade. HDFCB is a clear market leader with 34% market share in ex-mortgage
consumer credit. We expect wholesale loan growth to accelerate driven by project loans
business. We are ahead of consensus by 300 bps on total loan CAGR for FY17-20E. Bernstein
Analyst Page
Events
We are 8% ahead of consensus on FY'20E earnings. We expect the HDFCB earnings multiple
Company
to get further re-rated upwards. We roll forward our estimates to value this on FY'20E. Page

Investment Implications
We rate HDFCB Outperform with a target price of INR 2,430 implying a ~40% upside.

EPS Reported F17A F18E F19E Financials F17A F18E F19E CAGR Valuation Metrics F17A F18E F19E

HDFCB.IN (INR) 59.16 71.98 89.11 Credit Cost (%) 0.69 0.80 0.70 P/E Reported (x) 29.53 24.27 19.60

OLD 71.65 88.84 Net Interest Margin (%) 4.37 4.42 4.37 Div Yield (%) 0.63 0.79 0.97

MXAPJ 30.22 36.42 39.93 CE T1 (%) 12.79 12.33 11.96

ROA (%) 1.81 1.87 1.92

ROE (%) 17.95 18.29 19.22

Loan Growth (%) 19.37 24.33 23.99

See Disclosure Appendix of this report for important disclosures and analyst certifications www.bernsteinresearch.com
This document is being provided for the exclusive use of HITESH SHAH at GILDER GAGNON HOWE &

Gautam Chhugani +65-6230-4654 gautam.chhugani@bernstein.com 24 August 2017

TICKER TABLE
22 Aug 2017 TTM EPS Reported P/E Reported
Closing Target Rel.
Ticker Rating Price Price Perf. 2017A 2018E 2019E 2017A 2018E 2019E
HDFCB.IN O INR 1,747.00 2,430.00 23.6% INR 59.16 71.98 89.11 29.53 24.27 19.60
OLD 1,510.00 71.65 88.84
MXAPJ 527.67 30.22 36.42 39.93 17.46 14.49 13.21

TARGET PRICE CHANGE / ESTIMATE CHANGE IN BOLD O - Outperform, M - Market-Perform, U - Underperform, N Not Rated

MXAPJ base year is 2016;.

DETAILS

A. CONSUMER CREDIT CYCLE IN INDIA WILL CONTINUE ACCELERATING WITH SIGNIFICANT HEADROOM
EXHIBIT 1: We estimate India's per capita consumer credit (ex-mortgage) to grow by 20% CAGR till FY26'E

India: Per capita Consumer debt (ex-Mortgage), in INR


30,000

25,000

20,000

15,000

10,000

5,000

Source: RBI, Bernstein analysis & estimates

EXHIBIT 2: India consumer debt (ex-mortgage) as % of income actual and forecasts

Consumer Debt (ex-Mortgage) to India: Consumer Debt (ex-Mortgage) to


income ratio, 2016 end Income ratio
28.2%
10% 9.1%
9%
8%
20.3%
7%
6%
5%
4%
9.9%
8.7% 3%
2%
4.6%
1%
0%
FY95
FY97
FY99
FY01
FY03
FY05
FY07
FY09
FY11
FY13
FY15
FY17
FY19E
FY21E
FY23E
FY25E

Canada US UK Australia India

Note: Above ratios calculated on a per capita basis


Source: UN, FRED, Bank of England, Bank of Canada, Reserve Bank of Australia, RBI, Bernstein analysis & estimates

INDIA FINANCIALS BERNSTEIN 2


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EXHIBIT 3: and the number of credit cards to more than triple.

India: Number of credit cards, in 'mn


120
103
100

80

60

40
30

20

Source: RBI, Bernstein analysis & estimates

B. HDFC BANK WILL SUSTAIN CONSUMER LEADERSHIP AND IMPROVE SHARE IN WHOLESALE

EXHIBIT 4: We estimate HDFC Bank's loan growth to accelerate further as it increases share in wholesale term loans and
maintains its leadership in consumer credit.

HDFCB: Total Loan, y-o-y growth (%)


30%

25%

20%

15% FY17-FY20E CAGR:


Berns tein estimate: 24%
Cons ensus estimate: 21%
10%

5%

0%
FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E
Bersntein estimates Consensus estimates

Source: Company disclosures, BBG, Bernstein analysis & estimates

INDIA FINANCIALS BERNSTEIN 3


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EXHIBIT 5: HDFC has been consistently growing faster than EXHIBIT 6: not only on the consumer book
the system;
HDFCB vs. System: Total Loans, y- HDFCB vs. System: Total Consumer
o-y growth (%) loans, y-o-y growth (%)
140%
80%

70% 120%

60% 100%
50%
80%
40%
60%
30%

20% 40%

10% 20%

0% 0%
Mar-05

Mar-12

Mar-17
Mar-02
Mar-03
Mar-04

Mar-06
Mar-07
Mar-08
Mar-09
Mar-10
Mar-11

Mar-13
Mar-14
Mar-15
Mar-16

Mar-02
Mar-03
Mar-04
Mar-05
Mar-06
Mar-07
Mar-08
Mar-09
Mar-10
Mar-11
Mar-12
Mar-13
Mar-14
Mar-15
Mar-16
Mar-17
System growth HDFC's growth System growth HDFC's growth

Source: RBI, Company disclosures, Bernstein analysis Source: RBI, Company disclosures, Bernstein analysis

EXHIBIT 7: but also recently on the corporate book led by EXHIBIT 8: HDFC Bank's forte non-mortgage consumer
cherry picking of viable project loans lending book - is witnessing strong momentum
HDFCB vs. System: Total Corporate
HDFCB vs. System: Consumer loans
loans, y-o-y growth (%)
(ex-Mortgage), y-o-y growth (%)
60% 35%

50% 30%

40% 25%

30% 20%

20% 15%

10% 10%

0% 5%
Jun-15

Jun-16

Jun-17
Mar-16

Mar-17
Dec-15

Dec-16
Sep-15

Sep-16
Mar-02
Mar-03
Mar-04
Mar-05
Mar-06
Mar-07
Mar-08
Mar-09
Mar-10
Mar-11
Mar-12
Mar-13
Mar-14
Mar-15
Mar-16
Mar-17

System growth HDFC's growth System growth HDFC's growth

Source: RBI, Company disclosures, Bernstein analysis Source: RBI, Company disclosures, Bernstein analysis

INDIA FINANCIALS BERNSTEIN 4


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EXHIBIT 9: HDFC Bank's market dominance in non-mortgage consumer credit continues

Market share %: Consumer loans - Market share %: Credit card debt


ex Mortgage Jun'17 Jun'17

34% 51%

15%
13%
14%
12%
5% 5%
4%
3%
2% 1%

HDFCB ICICIB Axis Yes IIB Kotak HDFCB ICICIB Axis IIB Kotak Yes
Bank Bank
.

Source: RBI, Company disclosures, Bernstein analysis

EXHIBIT 10: The banks' consumer portfolio is driven by the non-mortgage component, particularly its continued leadership in
high yielding credit cards and personal loans

HDFCB: Consumer Loan mix Illustrative Product-wise Profitability


5.0%
100%
90% Credit cards
80% 4.0% Consumer
70% Durable
60% Personal
3.0% Two
50% loans
wheeler
RoA

40%
30% Commercial
2.0% SME
Vehicles
20%
Mortgage
10% Car Loan
1.0%
0% Corporate
Jun-14

Jun-15

Jun-16

Jun-17
Mar-15

Mar-16

Mar-17
Dec-14

Dec-15

Dec-16
Sep-14

Sep-15

Sep-16

0.0%
Personal Loans Credit Cards 4.0% 8.0% 12.0% 16.0% 20.0% 24.0%
Business Banking Home Loans
Agri and gold loans Vehicle loans Loan yield
Others

Note: The above data on consumer loan mix refers to domestic retail mix is as per regulatory segment reporting guidelines
Source: Company disclosures, Bernstein analysis

INDIA FINANCIALS BERNSTEIN 5


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EXHIBIT 11: HDFC Bank's combined personal loan and credit card portfolio accounts for ~28% of the total consumer
book...highest amongst its peer group

Total Personal loan & Credit card Total Personal loan & Credit card
debt outstanding, in INR bn debt as a % of Total Consumer loans
846 28%
26% 27%
761
24%

577
18%
17%
420 15% 15%
12%
11% 11%
240 247 9% 9%9%
216 8%
202 7%
156 152 97
101 81 93
109
52

HDFC Bank ICICI Bank Axis Bank Kotak Bank HDFC Bank Kotak Bank Axis Bank ICICI Bank

Mar'15 Mar'16 Mar'17 Jun'17 Mar'15 Mar'16 Mar'17 Jun'17

Source: Company disclosures, Bernstein analysis

C. EXECUTION ON THE DIGITAL PLATFORM WILL DRIVE LOW COST AND ACCELERATED CUSTOMER
ACQUISITION

EXHIBIT 12: Digital gains to drive cost efficiency

HDFCB: Cost to income ratio

60%

55%

50%

45%

40%

35%

30%

25%

20%
FY'18E
FY'19E
FY'20E
FY'98
FY'99
FY'00
FY'01
FY'02
FY'03
FY'04
FY'05
FY'06
FY'07
FY'08
FY'09
FY'10
FY'11
FY'12
FY'13
FY'14
FY'15
FY'16
FY'17

Bernstein estimates Consensus estimates

Source: Company disclosures, Bernstein analysis

INDIA FINANCIALS BERNSTEIN 6


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EXHIBIT 13: Internet penetration is fast rising in India EXHIBIT 14: and mobile phone is becoming the dominant
access point

India: Number of Internet Users, in mn Mobile as a % of Web Traffic, Jan'17

80%
355

277 50%

198

149

111
84

Global Average

Germany
Phillipines

UK
Singapore

Australia

Russia
USA
Thailand
Nigeria

China

Mexico

Italy
India

Malaysia

South Korea

Japan
South Africa
Indonesia

Brazil

France
Spain

Canada
66
54

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E

Source: Kleiner Perkins / Mary Meeker May'17 Report, Bernstein analysis, Source: Kleiner Perkins / Mary Meeker May'17 Report, Bernstein analysis,
IAMAI,UN Population Division, Worldometer, Bernstein analysis Hootsuite, Statcounter, Bernstein analysis

EXHIBIT 15: In this context, HDFC Bank is dominating the EXHIBIT 16: and is also getting sizeable traction on Android
mobile banking app downloads on Apple (high quality platform.
customers) ...

Last 365 days: Mobile banking apps - Last 365 days: Mobile bank ing apps -
Apple downloads (in '000) Android downloads (in '000)
646
3,186
2,825
471 2,500

2,098

260

53

HDFC Bank Axis Bank Kotak + 811 ICICI Bank ICICI Bank HDFC Bank Axis Bank Kotak + 811
mobile mobile mobile mobile bankingmobile bankingmobile banking
banking banking banking

Source :PD. Bernstein analysis Source: PD. Bernstein analysis

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EXHIBIT 17: HDFC Bank's mobile transaction leadership is unmatched in the industry

HDFC Bank: Mobile banking HDFC Bank: Mobile banking


transaction volume, in '000 transaction volume market share, in
%
31,551
28%

13%
10%
9%

6,354
2% 3%
1,721 3% 2% 1%
2 27 16 30 151 317

Mobile banking transaction volume: Market share evolution

28%

19%
17% 16%
15% 15%
14% 13%
13%
15% 16%
10% 9% 9%
10% 9% 10%

4% 4%
2% 3%
2% 3%
1%
2%

Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16


% HDFC share % ICICI share % Axis share
% Kotak share % IndusInd share % Yes share

Source: RBI database, Bernstein analysis


Note: Transaction volume represents volume for the month of March

INDIA FINANCIALS BERNSTEIN 8


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EXHIBIT 18: Limited expansion of physical branches

HDFCB: Number of Branches


4,727
4,520 4,715

4,014
3,403
3,062

2,544
1,986
1,725
1,412

684 761
467 535
231 312
2 14 32 56 78 111 131 171

HDFCB: Increase in number of branches

651
611
558
518
506

341
313
261

155 149 160

81 68 77
60
24 33 40
12 18 22 20

Source: RBI, Company disclosures, Bernstein analysis

INDIA FINANCIALS BERNSTEIN 9


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EXHIBIT 19: Limited growth in net employee additions

HDFCB: Number of Employees, in '000

88
84
76
69
66 68
56
53
52

38

21
15
9
4 5 6
3
Mar-01

Mar-02

Mar-03

Mar-04

Mar-05

Mar-06

Mar-07

Mar-08

Mar-09

Mar-10

Mar-11

Mar-12

Mar-13

Mar-14

Mar-15

Mar-16

Mar-17
HDFCB: Increase in number of employees, in '000

16.4
14.9

11.3
10.3

8.1
6.6
5.8

3.4 3.9 3.0


1.0 1.0 0.9

(0.8) (0.9)
(3.2)
Mar-02

Mar-03

Mar-04

Mar-05

Mar-06

Mar-07

Mar-08

Mar-09

Mar-10

Mar-11

Mar-12

Mar-13

Mar-14

Mar-15

Mar-16

Mar-17

Source: Company disclosures, Bernstein analysis

INDIA FINANCIALS BERNSTEIN 10


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OUR NEW ESTIMATES VS. OLD ESTIMATES

EXHIBIT 20: New vs. Old estimates


New estimates Old estimates New vs. Old Comment
Particulars
FY'18E FY'19E FY'18E FY'19E FY'18E FY'19E Reference
NII 400,438 482,012 382,414 470,111 5% 3% 1
Non-interest income 148,027 174,447 144,000 168,764 3% 3% 2
Net Revenues 548,464 656,459 526,414 638,875 4% 3% --
Operating costs (227,613) (265,866) (226,358) (265,133) 1% 0% 3
PPOP 320,852 390,593 300,056 373,742 7% 5% --
Provisions (50,707) (54,053) (37,501) (46,841) 35% 15% 4
PBT 270,145 336,541 262,555 326,901 3% 3% --
Tax (91,849) (114,424) (86,643) (107,877) 6% 6% --
PAT 178,295 222,117 175,912 219,024 1% 1% --

Wt avg shares - Diluted 2,609 2,636 2,599 2,629 0% 0% --


Consol Dil. EPS 72 89 72 89 0% 0% --

Book value / share 408 480 396 468 3% 3% --


Tier 1 % ratio 13.3% 12.9% 12.7% 12.2% -- -- --

Loans 6,894,842 8,548,731 6,940,239 8,673,270 -1% -1% --

Cost to income ratiio 42% 41% 43% 42% -- -- 3

Ref. Comment

NII is higher as we revise our NIM estimate upward after a strong performance in FY'17 (+10 bps beat to our estimate)
1
and we expect HDFC Bank to hold their NIMs going forward
Fee income growth to remain robust driven by robust volume growth - corporate as well as retail - as well as increasing
2
cross-sell opportunities
We have cut down our our cost to income estimates as we see significant potential of ongoing digitisation initiatives as
3
well as increasing share of term loans in total loans to control costs

4 We have raised our credit cost estimates from 60 bps to 70 bps

Note: PPOP = Pre-provision operating profit


Source: Company disclosures, Bernstein analysis and estimates

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US vs. THEM

EXHIBIT 21: Us vs. them

Summary Financials FY18E FY19E FY20E


BERN Consensus Variance BERN Consensus Variance BERN Consensus Variance
NII 400,438 399,304 0% 482,012 475,338 1% 582,513 566,906 3%
Non-interest income 148,027 142,419 4% 174,447 165,304 6% 203,232 188,102 8%
o/w Fee income 108,828 109,142 0% 130,594 127,014 3% 154,101 143,592 7%
Income 548,464 541,723 1% 656,459 640,642 2% 785,745 760,572 3%
Operating expenses (227,613) (227,797) 0% (265,866) (263,932) 1% (298,583) (305,827) -2%
PPOP 320,852 313,925 2% 390,593 376,711 4% 487,162 454,744 7%
Provisions & Contingencies (50,707) (44,258) 15% (54,053) (52,158) 4% (66,895) (60,052) 11%
Net operating income 270,145 269,667 0% 336,541 324,553 4% 420,266 394,692 6%
Pre-tax profit 270,145 267,292 1% 336,541 324,094 4% 420,266 389,071 8%
Net income 178,295 176,520 1% 222,117 214,567 4% 277,376 257,918 8%

Loans 6,894,842 6,764,593 2% 8,548,731 8,243,274 4% 10,564,262 9,865,834 7%


Per share
EPS 69.2 68.5 1% 85.4 82.8 3% 105.5 98.9 7%
DPS 13.8 12.9 7% 17.0 15.0 13% 21.0 18.0 16%
BVPS 408 399 2% 480 466 3% 569 544 5%
Key ratios
Tier 1 capital % 13.3% 12.8% 4% 12.9% 12.5% 3% 12.6% 11.8% 6%
Loan g 24% 22% 11% 24% 22% 10% 24% 20% 20%
NIM % 4.4% 4.5% -1% 4.4% 4.4% -1% 4.3% 4.3% 0%
C/I 42% 42% -1% 41% 41% -2% 38% 40% -5%
Provisions / Avg Loans 0.8% 0.7% 14% 0.7% 1.0% -33% 0.7% 1.0% -30%
Effective tax rate 34% 34% 0% 34% 34% 1% 34% 34% 1%
RoE 18.3% 18.3% 0% 19.2% 19.1% 0% 20.1% 19.7% 2%
RoA 1.9% 1.9% 0% 1.9% 1.9% 1% 2.0% 1.9% 5%
Dividend Payout Ratio 20.0% 18.9% 6% 20.0% 18.1% 10% 20.0% 18.2% 10%

Note: 1. PPOP = Pre-provision operating profits 2. Consensus estimate is from Bloomberg as of 18th August 2017
Source: Company disclosures, Bloomberg, Bernstein analysis and estimates

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APPENDIX: FINANCIAL FORECASTS

EXHIBIT 22: HDFC Bank financial forecasts


HDFC BANK
All figures In INR Million
Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18E Mar-19E Mar-20E
INCOME STATEMENT
Net interest income 275,915 331,392 400,438 482,012 582,513
Non-interest income 107,517 122,965 148,027 174,447 203,232
Total income 383,432 454,357 548,464 656,459 785,745
Operating expenses (169,797) (197,033) (227,613) (265,866) (298,583)
Pre-provision profits (PPOP) 213,635 257,324 320,852 390,593 487,162
Provisons & contingencies (27,256) (35,933) (50,707) (54,053) (66,895)
o/w Provisions on Loans (25,736) (35,375) (49,762) (54,053) (66,895)
Net operating income 186,379 221,391 270,145 336,541 420,266
Net non operating income - - - - -
PBT 186,379 221,391 270,145 336,541 420,266
Income taxes (63,417) (75,894) (91,849) (114,424) (142,891)
PAT 122,962 145,497 178,295 222,117 277,376
Consol. attributable PAT 128,013 152,530 187,823 234,851 128,013

Consol. Diluted EPS 50 59 72 89 110


Consol. Diluted EPS g 15% 18% 22% 24% 24%
Consol. DPS 10 11 14 17 21
Consol. Payout ratio 19% 18% 19% 19% 19%

HDFC BANK
All figures In INR Million
Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18E Mar-19E Mar-20E
BALANCE SHEET
Standalone:
Loans 4,645,940 5,545,682 6,894,842 8,548,731 10,564,262
Deposits 5,464,242 6,436,397 7,623,330 9,224,229 11,161,317
Total assets 7,407,961 8,638,402 10,451,054 12,664,011 15,440,312

Shareholder's equity 726,778 894,624 1,055,484 1,255,730 1,505,540


Tier 1 capital 700,325 818,293 1,059,154 1,273,632 1,540,583
RWA 5,297,681 6,400,299 7,938,489 9,862,973 12,244,990
Tier 1 capital ratio 13.2% 12.8% 13.3% 12.9% 12.6%

Consolidated:
Consol. Shareholder's equity 744,847 744,847 744,847 744,847 744,847
Consol. BVPS 294 358 421 498 593
Shares o/s, Closing (mn) 2,528 2,563 2,587 2,614 2,644

KEY RATIOS
Standalone:
Loan g 27% 19% 24% 24% 24%
GNPA % 0.9% 1.1% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4%

Net interest margin (Calculated) 4.4% 4.4% 4.4% 4.4% 4.3%


Non-interest income g 20% 14% 20% 18% 17%
Cost/Income ratio 44% 43% 42% 41% 38%
PPOP / Avg Assets 3.2% 3.2% 3.4% 3.4% 3.5%
Loan loss provisions / Avg Loans 0.6% 0.7% 0.8% 0.7% 0.7%
Effective tax rate 34% 34% 34% 34% 34%

Consolidated:
Consol. ROAE 19% 18% 19% 20% 21%

Source: Company disclosures, Bernstein analysis and estimates

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DISCLOSURE APPENDIX

VALUATION METHODOLOGY
India Financials
India is a growth market and investors generally seek growth-based returns in India. We believe all banks in India trade on what
market believes as the sustainable earnings growth momentum. Banks that have sustained cross-cycle earnings growth
despite sector asset quality concerns trade at a premium. On the other hand, banks that have been inconsistent in earnings
growth get penalized by the market until they build investor confidence again. We value our coverage on a target P/E multiple
based on one year forward earnings calibrated by trading history and our expectation of three-year sustainable earnings
growth. We use a one-year forward multiple based on FY'19 earnings to arrive at FY'18 end target price. We corroborate our
target price earnings multiples with a P/BV based multiple as a secondary check. We also believe the market can be brutal with
growth stocks if the growth story shows any structural weakness and thus we constantly stress-test for structural growth
weakness across our industry and company investment thesis. This methodology works for banks under NPL stress too as we
expect earnings to largely normalize by FY'19

RISKS

HDFC Bank Ltd


HDFCB faces significant margin pressure beyond our expectations in line with industry trends
HDFCB is unable to drive operating leverage and scale across its retail lending business to enable significant costs savings
in operating expenditure
HDFCB is required to meaningfully slow down credit cards and personal loan book growth due to unexpected risk
concerns

INDIA FINANCIALS BERNSTEIN 14


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Bernstein rates stocks based on forecasts of relative performance for the next 6-12 months versus the S&P 500 for stocks listed on the U.S. and
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Outperform: Stock will outpace the market index by more than 15 pp in the year ahead.

Market-Perform: Stock will perform in line with the market index to within +/-15 pp in the year ahead.

Underperform: Stock will trail the performance of the market index by more than 15 pp in the year ahead.

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As of 08/15/2017, Bernstein's ratings were distributed as follows: Outperform - 45.8% (0.3% banking clients) ; Market-Perform - 39.5% (0.0%
banking clients); Underperform - 14.5% (0.0% banking clients); Not Rated - 0.2% (0.0% banking clients). The numbers in parentheses represent the
percentage of companies in each category to whom Bernstein provided investment banking services within the last twelve (12) months.

12-Month Rating History as of 08/22/2017


Ticker Rating Changes
HDFCB.IN O (IC) 11/16/16

Rating Guide: O - Outperform, M - Market-Perform, U - Underperform, N - Not Rated


Rating Actions: IC - Initiated Coverage, DC - Dropped Coverage, RC - Rating Change

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CERTIFICATIONS
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Approved By: NK

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