Homework 2 Five problems

Problem 1: Your professor gives a surprise quiz consisting of 10 true/false

questions.

A) What is the complement of the event of getting at least one question wrong?

B) With random guessing for each question, show that the probability of getting at
least one question wrong is 0.999

Problem 2: Based on records of automobile accidents in a recent year, the

Department of Highway Safety and Motor Vehicles in Florida reported the counts
who survived (S) and died (D), according to whether they wore a seat belt (Y = yes,
N = no). The data are presented in the table below.

Outcome of accident
Wore Seat Belt Survived (S) Died (D) Total
Yes (Y) 412,368 510 412,878
No (N) 162,527 1601 164,128
Total 574,895 2111 577,006

A) Using these data, find P(D) and the P(N).

B) Find the probability that an individual did not wear a seat belt and died. That is,
find P(N and D).

C) Use your answers to verify if events D and N are independent. If they are, what
does that mean in context of the data? If they are not, what does that mean in
context of the data?

D) Find the probability that person wore a seat or survived an accident. That is, find
P(Y or S).

Problem 3: A local downtown arts and crafts shop found from past observation that
20% of the people who enter the shop actually buy something. Three potential
customers enter the shop. Find the probability of at least one sale to the three
customers.

Problem 4: The Triple Blood Test screens pregnant women for the genetic disorder,
Down syndrome. This syndrome, which occurs in about 1 in 800 live births, arises
from an error in cell division that results in a fetus having an extra copy of
chromosome 21. It is the most common genetic cause of mental impairment. The
chance of having a baby with Down syndrome increases after a woman is 35 years
old. A study (see J. Haddow et al., New England Journal of Medicine, vol. 330, pp.
1114-1118, 1994) of 5282 women aged 35 or over analyzed the Triple Blood Test to
test its accuracy. The table below summarizes the data from that study.

Blood Test Results

Down Syndrome (D) Positive (POS) Negative (NEG) Total
Yes (Y) 48 6 54
No (N) 1307 3921 5228
Total 1355 3927 5282

A) Given that a test result is negative, show that the probability the fetus actually
has Down syndrome is P(Y | NEG) = 0.0015

B) Is P(Y | NEG) = P(NEG | Y)? Explain why or why not

C) Find the rate of false positive and false negatives.

Problem 5: In a jury trial, suppose the probability the defendant is convicted, given
guilt, is 0.95, and the probability the defendant is acquitted, given innocence, is 0.95.
Suppose that 90% of all defendants truly are guilty. Find the probability the
defendant was actually innocent given the defendant is convicted.